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The Finance Ghost Plugged in with Capitec: Ep 8 (Business Banking, but better)

Introducing Capitec Business executives Karl Kumbier, Amrei Botha and Sicelo Mkhize:

Capitec understands the challenges faced by entrepreneurs. Throughout this season of The Finance Ghost Plugged in with Capitec, we’ve explored how affordable transactional banking and access to finance can help business owners grow. 

But how does it all come together? And how did Capitec make such a strong impact on the business banking scene so quickly? 

In episode 8, we reflect on the acquisition of Mercantile Bank just before COVID hit – and how Capitec’s innovative approach helped shape the products, systems and client experience that followed.  

This is The Finance Ghost in conversation with Karl Kumbier (Executive for Business Bank), Amrei Botha (Executive of Client Experience Delivery) and Sicelo Mkhize (Head of Distribution).

Episode 8 covers:

  • Why understanding SME challenges is the starting point for better products and solutions –  including Capitec’s simple, transparent pricing structure 
  • The systems architecture of Capitec Business and why it was built to stand alongside the rest of our business 
  • How the pandemic shaped Capitec’s blend of digital innovation and personal support in the business centres 
  • The rapid growth from 30 000 to 85 000 clients in just one year – and why individual clients still matter

The Finance Ghost plugged in with Capitec is made possible by the support of Capitec Business. All the entrepreneurs featured on this podcast are clients of Capitec. Capitec is an authorised Financial Services Provider, FSP number 46669.

Listen to the podcast here:

Read the transcript:

The Finance Ghost: Welcome to this episode of The Finance Ghost plugged in with Capitec, where we are building the future of South African business and we’re doing it with, as you’ve guessed, Capitec. 

Hopefully you’ve listened to some of the other episodes in the season where I’ve gotten to speak to some really interesting entrepreneurs who are building all kinds of different businesses. Some great stories. 

I think South Africa has been a lot more positive in the past year and it’s lovely to see that there are people out there building. And of course, there are a lot of people out there who dedicate their days to supporting the people who are building. That is what this podcast is all about – this particular episode. 

Today, we aren’t chatting to small business owners – very far from it, actually. We’re chatting to three executives from Capitec Business. 

On the show today, I’m lucky enough to be able to chat to Karl Kumbier, the Executive for Business Bank; Sicelo Mkhize, the Head of Distribution; and Amrei Botha, the Executive of Client Experience Delivery. 

All very nice, all very fancy, and ultimately comes down to the same thing, right? Helping small businesses do their thing. Karl, Amrei, Sicelo – thank you. Welcome to the show. It’s lovely to have the three of you.

Karl Kumbier: Thanks for having us on your podcast. It’s great to be here.

The Finance Ghost: Let’s jump in, I think. Karl, we’re going to hear from you first. There are quite a few questions with you. But Amrei, Sicelo, I’m looking forward to chatting to you as well, and obviously jump in as you want to and as you have stuff to add. 

Let’s just contextualise the story here, which is that Capitec came from being, as everyone knows, the simple bank. But by ‘simple’, what that really meant is ‘simplicity’ as opposed to simple. So, actually making things easier and taking incredible market share along the way in consumer banking. I mean, everyone knows that story.

Now you’re doing it in business banking. And I can confirm, having opened one of my small business accounts with Capitec now (not least of all inspired by the podcast that we are all working on together) – it works! It does the job. It does exactly what it says on the tin, which was a good experience. 

I think where we should start with you, Karl, is just the ‘why’ behind Capitec Business. It really is just important to understand what you guys are building, the journey so far. 

And particularly just from a South African context, where small business is difficult – it’s difficult everywhere in the world; it feels like it’s even harder here. How do you help address what small businesses are dealing with?

Karl Kumbier: Yeah. As you said, Capitec’s done really well over the last 22 years in the retail space and grown really nicely. The next logical move is SMEs. It’s a very badly serviced segment. I think SMEs have been ripped off for years on bank charges, etcetera. 

And if you think about it, if we can make a difference to an SME’s life – if we can provide access to finance to that small business – what does that do? That helps them grow!

And as the business grows, it creates jobs. As you create jobs, you stimulate the economy. We genuinely believe that we can make a real difference in this country, and help grow this economy.

The Finance Ghost: As you say, it’s fees on one hand. It’s also stuff like access to finance. And there are so many different things that SMEs have to think about, right? It’s also just getting paid! 

And I think what triggered this initially was I actually wrote a piece for the Financial Mail (I think this was now last year), because I went and bought coffee at the local Vida. And of course, as I paid, I heard that very familiar little Capitec jingle – you know, that everyone knows and loves and would have heard at the start of this podcast. 

I’ll avoid embarrassing myself by trying to replicate it here, but the point is that I heard that and thought, “Hmmm, that’s interesting” – obviously because I’ve been writing about the markets, I’ve been following the Capitec story, but now I just hear it everywhere. 

It’s amazing, actually. It’s like the marketing trick of the century, I’ve got to tell you. Very clever that the POS (Point of Sale) machines basically sing to people every time they pay.

Karl Kumbier: We love that sound.

The Finance Ghost: I’m sure! And it actually helps a market analyst like me understand just how well this thing is growing. Because just look around you, right? As you pay, if you hear that, it’s because Capitec is involved here. 

Would you say that’s been key to – and we’ll talk about this in more detail – servicing the different needs of SMEs? Because it’s a whole lot of things, right? It’s the basic banking, it’s also payments, it’s access to finance – that’s what SMEs always cry about, right?

Karl Kumbier: For sure. You have to solve for all of the SMEs problems or issues.

And if you think about it, you’ve got a lot of banks out there. You’ve got old legacy banks that have been around forever. Then you’ve got all these fintechs. And if you think about a fintech, they solve for a particular need, right? So, you might have a POS and they solve for that thing really well. 

And we see ourselves as a giant fintech – we want to be able to provide those fintech solutions to our clients. But at the same time, we’re able to offer a transactional banking account to be able to facilitate payments. 

We can actually do foreign exchange, we can lend you money to buy a car or commercial property or a residential home loan, whatever. We can provide you with a complete solution. So, yeah, you’re exactly right. We’ve had to solve for all of the SME’s needs.

The Finance Ghost: Yeah, it’s a really big part of it. And before we then get into some more detail on how you’ve actually done this, from the outside looking in, people might wonder how Capitec got this big, this quickly – and from a business banking perspective. 

One of the ways they did it, of course, is they acquired Mercantile, which is a very classic strategy of buy rather than build. I think what’s happening here is: buy a foundation and then build on it very quickly, right? It feels like that’s what happened here, so maybe just some context to why Capitec took that route. 

And then for the listeners, context as well – for the three of you, were you involved before when it was Mercantile, or did you join after that? I’m just curious to get a little one-minute from each of you on your involvement there.

Karl Kumbier: Okay, so I used to run Mercantile. I was CEO of Mercantile Bank. We were owned by the largest bank in Portugal, then we were put up for sale in about 2017. 

But selling a bank is a long process to go through, like a tender process. And from a Capitec point of view, if you decide you’re going to go into business banking, you’ve got to make a decision: do you build yourself (which Capitec’s always done), or do you buy something? And if you buy something, the benefit is you’re getting to market much quicker.

Then when we were told we’re going to be sold, I had to go and prepare a presentation and shop around to find out who’s interested in buying us. There were quite a lot of parties interested, but the first place I went to was Capitec, because Capitec was a real success story. It was a case study. We all looked up to Capitec. We were in awe of how Capitec had grown. 

At Mercantile, we were a niche business bank. That’s what we did. And we thought if you could combine Capitec’s brand, with Capitec’s balance sheet, with Capitec’s knowledge of scored lending, and then with Capitec’s technology skills – imagine combining that with our business banking skills at Mercantile. 

We always thought, “Geez, you can create something really special!” And then when I went to go see Gerrie and the old FD, André (Gerrie just retired recently as CEO of Capitec), the first response was,”Listen, we don’t like buying things. We prefer to build.” 

But I think, during the due diligence, they realised that we had a foreign exchange department, we had a rental finance business, we had a POS business, we had a debit order collections business, and most importantly, we had this business banking division that could service transactional banking for clients. We had online banking, we had all the lending products that the traditional banks have. There’s nothing we didn’t offer. 

So Capitec looked at this and said, “Wow. If we had to go and build all of those things, it’s going to take…” If you just think about Discovery Bank – it’s a great offering, but it’s taken nine, maybe 10 years? I don’t know how long, to build the bank and have a really good offering in that space. 

If you want to get to market quicker, rather buy. So, Capitec decided to up the offer, no conditions, and bought Mercantile – because they could see the benefits.

And yeah, then you’ve immediately got a business that’s profitable from day one – and we pay for all of our own development costs, etcetera – and you can get to market much quicker. So, that’s the reason Capitec bought Mercantile.

The Finance Ghost: Yeah. Fantastic. Amrei, maybe let’s go to you. What was your involvement before/during/after? Were you there with Karl throughout?

Amrei Botha: So, I had the great privilege of joining Capitec just as the deal went through. It’s not often in one’s career where you get the opportunity to start something from scratch. And after a lifetime in small business banking, it was great to join an organisation and a team that’s so passionate about small businesses and making a difference in the SME sector. 

And we had all these competencies and skills and capabilities from Mercantile, but also the knowledge and experience of Capitec in scaling a banking operation. It was really great in those early days. Being part of a startup team, very much operating like a fintech. 

We were so small at that stage. Karl, I remember the floor I joined was completely empty! We had like four desks for the few of us that started it. Covid hit shortly after, six weeks after. So we had to navigate Covid and building a bank afresh. So, it was a really, really wonderful season and it’s just accelerated from there.

Karl Kumbier: Yeah, I remember Gerrie said to me, “We need someone to set up this area called Client Experience Delivery so that they understand the client experience and they build all the technology to deliver on that and the client’s needs.” 

I said, “You know what? There’s one person. She works for the World Bank currently. She’s passionate about small businesses. She flies around the world to countries all over Africa and the Middle East, etcetera, solving for SME’s problems. Let’s have a meeting with her.”

And we met with Amrei and, when we saw how passionate she was about SMEs, we said, “That’s it, then. Come join us and help us build this business bank.”

The Finance Ghost: Very nice. It’s a great story. Sicelo, over to you. How did you get into the fold here? When you joined, were there also four desks on a massive floor that then emptied after that, or was it before or after that?

Sicelo Mkhize: Yeah. Interestingly, my story is quite similar to Amrei’s story. I also joined a couple of months after the conclusion of the acquisition. I think maybe the one part I just want to highlight on my side that actually attracted me to Capitec was really joining an organisation that was founded by entrepreneurs. 

When I looked at the landscape, I said, “Who’s the best bank in South Africa that understands the entrepreneurial journey and that can also contribute in terms of really helping entrepreneurs?” So, that’s how my story started. 

And to Amrei’s point, obviously, the first couple of months we were hit with Covid. That’s when I actually saw the true culture of Capitec, really being there for entrepreneurs during Covid and helping entrepreneurs to save jobs and ensure that we continue to grow the economy, even at that point in time. 

So, yeah, it’s been an exciting journey on my side. And we’re starting to see that fruit coming through, in terms of the benefits that we’re passing on to our small businesses.

Karl Kumbier: Yeah. And also when we met Sicelo for the first time, as well, it’s not often you get a banker that’s got both credit experience and relationship experience. 

We just thought, “With Sicelo’s passion for business banking and knowledge of credit, what a fantastic acquisition.” And yeah, now Sicelo runs our entire distribution network and all the larger clients fall under Sicelo.

The Finance Ghost: Yeah, very nice. My little business is also a pandemic baby. It’s interesting how the team that’s on this podcast essentially, from a Capitec perspective (with the exception of you, Karl, who was running Mercantile before), kind of came together around that time and navigated that whole story. It feels like it was so long ago, right? It’s like another era. That was only six years ago.

Karl Kumbier: It was very interesting. And we sat now as Capitec, the deal went through in 2019. Next thing, Covid hits a year later (not even – the deal went through in November and then Covid was in March the next year).

As you can imagine, it was chaos. And Capitec, we sat together as a group exco, and we said, “You know what? We need to keep servicing our clients’ needs. We need to keep making sure we can provide them the necessary service.” 

And we said, “How do we get all of our call centre staff – 2,000 people – to actually work from home?” Never heard of, for a call centre. And suddenly, we spoke to our IT suppliers. They delivered like a couple of thousand laptops. 

We had these production lines going in head office in Stellenbosch. We had to load all the software and everything we needed on these laptops. We gave them 3G dongles to be able to get Wi-Fi. We trained everyone quickly how to use the new dongle system, etcetera. 

And next thing, within three weeks – can you believe it? From the date we made the decision at exco that we’re going to push everyone to work from home to three weeks later, every single one of our call centre staff had a laptop sitting at home and was servicing our clients’ needs. Almost like there was no interruption whatsoever.

And if you had said to us, say six months before Covid, “Would you ever be able to send people home, all your calls and staff and work from home?” You’d say, “No, no chance!” And yet, we managed to do it. We all pulled together as a team and did it.

The Finance Ghost: Yeah, it’s amazing. I think it also talks to the benefit of being part of a larger organisation like Capitec, to be able to do something like that; make those kind of decisions. You know, flick a switch (obviously, way simplifying it) and this amazing production line happens.

Karl Kumbier: Yeah, we’re part of a large organisation, but the way I look at Capitec is as a large business, run like a small business. We have a very flat structure; we don’t care about titles. We can make decisions quickly.

When there’s something to be done, we sit around the table and, once we agree, we all walk out of that office and everyone’s on the same page and we go and deliver. So, it’s a very agile business, for such a large business.

The Finance Ghost: Yeah. I mean, I can give a real-world example of that. Even just discussing this podcast season with the Capitec marketing team, the decision was made quickly and it was made by a few people, so I’ve seen that myself. I agree with you. That does seem to be the way Capitec runs the business, which is great.

Let’s maybe move into that then, and this Capitec culture… You spoke a little bit about how the acquisition helped to plug some gaps, etcetera, but obviously Capitec brought its own culture to this too, versus what you had before at Mercantile. 

So, that approach of actually addressing the gap in the market, building out the Capitec Business now from the foundation you had before. Just meshing that culture, the way Capitec thinks and everything else you’ve achieved. 

Karl, this is probably a question for you. Just your thoughts around that, as you reflect on that journey?

Karl Kumbier: So, when the deal went through, it took us a year to integrate as a division because the Reserve Bank gave us one year (or two years, I can’t remember, but we did it in one year) to give our banking license as Mercantile. 

But the nice thing is that year gave us the opportunity to go and design the business bank of the future. Now the old Mercantile, it was a very high-touch, low-volume business. We only had a few thousand customers, but we had really great relationships with those clients. 

We had to say, “Right, but that model’s not going to work for Capitec. You know, Capitec is all about scale, volume.” 

Mastercard actually sponsored a session for us, so we (myself, Gerrie, who was the CEO of Capitec, the Financial Director, a couple of my senior team from Mercantile and our Head of Technology, Wim, at the group) locked ourselves into a room in Stellenbosch, for literally three or four days. 

We just cleared the diaries – no cell phones on, nothing – and we started just throwing ideas around. 

After three days of brainstorming, we decided that what we want to build is a business bank that’s digitally led – so you can do as much as you can digitally, because we know entrepreneurs haven’t got time to go into branches and this and that – but relationship-based – so we must have really good relationships with our business banking clients.

When that client approaches the bank, the bank knows exactly who that client is and what they do, etcetera. That was the concept. So, everything we had to build was based around that.

The Finance Ghost: Yeah. I’ve got to say, as a small business owner, I think the word ‘branch’ is basically a swear word. I can tell you for sure, if I hear that word, it’s not happening. I’m banking somewhere else. 

So, got to build it as a full digital experience. I completely agree with you on that. And some of the Capitec DNA stuff really seems to be coming through as well. I mentioned the word ‘simplicity’ earlier, and that’s always been a word that I think Capitec has really leaned on very strongly from a marketing perspective. 

And it makes a world of sense to have done so. There are a few others as well that I think have been baked into what you’re actually building. Before we go to Amrei and start to understand more about the client experience, let’s just finish off with you there, Karl, for now at least. How that Capitec DNA has kind of come through in your offering.

Karl Kumbier: Yeah. One of the things that made Capitec successful is the four fundamentals. So, from the very first year of Capitec’s existence (22, 23 years ago), there were four fundamentals that the founders came up with. 

Those were simplicity, then affordability, then accessibility and personalised service. So we just said, “Okay, everything we build in the business bank has to comply with those four fundamentals.” 

We want a simple offering: one offering for everyone. Doesn’t matter if you’re the largest business with 10,000 employees or if you’re a hairdresser and you work on your own, you have the same offering. You get offered the same thing – same pricing, same everything. 

So that’s the simple piece. Then, the affordability. We said, “We want to be the most affordable in the market by at least 30%.” And we can talk about that later, but we ended up close to 50% more affordable, at least. 

And then accessibility. When the client wants to speak to the bank, we must be accessible. When the client wants to open an account or do whatever, that must be easily accessible. So we put that in. 

And then the last thing is personalised service. I mean, that’s everything for a small business. If you’ve got an issue, you want to be able to pick up the phone or speak to someone, and they can make a decision. You want to do it there and then. So, we had to make sure we have this really good personalised service. 

Those are the four fundamentals and every single thing we build in business banking has that. And then, just to add an overlay across all of that, is our culture at Capitec. It’s a very simple culture. We call it the CEO principles. 

We want, firstly, everyone to be a CEO in the business, right? But, the C stands for Client, and the client always comes first. Doesn’t matter what we do, we’re not going to do something unless it improves the client experience or drives down the cost of banking for clients. So, that’s the first thing. 

The E is Energy. We want all of our staff to have energy. Clients want to deal with energised staff, they don’t want to deal with someone that’s like half-dead!

And then the O stands for Ownership. How do we make sure that all of our staff run this business like it’s their own business? They must have that founder mentality. They must take the ownership and deliver on whatever is in front of them. So, that culture mixed with the four fundamentals are how we built the business bank.

The Finance Ghost: Yeah. An entrepreneurial culture is a lovely thing and you only really notice it if you’ve worked in a place that has it and then a place that doesn’t have it. I’ve done both, so when it’s there, it’s quite a special thing. 

Amrei, I think let’s move on to you. World Bank, nogal! Very interesting. I’m guessing your world is a bit more granular these days because now you’re working on things like how people actually come into the system and how the entire onboarding works, how the whole business works, really? 

I’m keen to understand, underneath everything, building a bank – that is incredibly interesting! Take us through that. I’m going to just open the floor to you to walk us through what’s been built, because it’s going to be incredibly interesting.

Amrei Botha: Yes, it has been, and we’re not done yet. I think that’s the most exciting part of it. As I mentioned earlier, it’s not often that one gets the opportunity to start from scratch, but also take the best of two great organisations. 

At Capitec, we really obsess about the client experience. I’ve been passionate about small businesses all my life. But at Capitec, it really raised the bar in terms of that. The level of granularity, the level of data we look at, the level of client insight we look at, is surreal, really. 

We really truly obsess about the client experience and the journey that the client goes through. All the way from the most junior to senior staff, we really obsess around the process. We often talk about people, process, technology, and that those three need to be absolutely the best they can be. 

We also have this mantra of “better never rests”. So even if you think you’ve done your greatest work, someone else looks at it and they find an even better way to do it. 

And simplicity is also kind of infinite. You think you’ve done something simple and then you look at it again and there’s an even simpler way to do it. So, we really obsess around the number of steps in our processes that a client or a staff member needs to go through. 

We obsess about efficiency. We know time matters to SMEs, and so wherever we can save time for SMEs, that’s really important. We worry about the details, the number of fields that a client needs to complete or a staff member needs to complete, the number of screens they need to go through, the number of clicks involved in a process. 

Whenever we design something new, that’s what we look at.

In a similar fashion, when we needed to start building Capitec Business, we looked at the client journey from the front door to the growth journey. What does that client’s journey look like? 

The very first thing we started with was the Capitec website as the front-door entry point to what became Capitec Business. And we realised at the time (and this is where, I suppose, the rubber hit the road) that the current Capitec site that we had at that time, the information architecture couldn’t allow for business banking. 

And so we actually needed, with the Capitec retail team at that time, to redesign the whole Capitec website. And it was exciting. In true transparency fashion (which is a value of ours here at Capitec), the website is not only where we house all of our product information, we also transparently house all of our product and pricing information there. 

So clients have access to all of our pricing right there on the website. And that is the true price we charge. There are no Ts and Cs or hidden fees or anything like that.

The Finance Ghost: So Amrei, I wanted to ask you on that though, before you carry on. So to get this right, you guys had to go to group and be like, “Hi. You’ve just bought us and we’re up here in Joburg, we’re very far away from you. But actually, you’ve got to redo the whole website so that we can have a business.” Is that how that conversation went? That’s quite amazing.

Amrei Botha: It is! And it’s… I can’t even begin to articulate how easily those conversations happen in Capitec. If there’s something that’s right for our clients and for the market and what we’re trying to do in terms of adding value, those decisions get made really quickly. 

So I think Karl mentioned earlier, the level of decision making is fast here, absolutely. And I think the other thing, Karl, maybe you want to add there before I go on?

Karl Kumbier: Yeah. I just think one thing about Capitec is that there are no silos, which is quite interesting for an organisation this size, right? One thing that I think has been really successful for Capitec is everyone in the bank is incentivised on Capitec’s growth, not the division. 

So in other words, it doesn’t matter if you’re going to almost cannibalise one area or someone’s gotta add… it doesn’t matter as long as everyone can buy into the future and says, “No, but that’s good for the bank. Yeah, we’re going to do it.” 

That struck me from day one that we were part of Capitec Group. That we need to change a website. Everyone is so excited about building a business bank, they just said, “Geez, where do we start? Let’s go for it!” 

And everyone just goes and starts working towards doing it. So, that’s an amazing culture at Capitec, which you don’t get in many other large organisations.

The Finance Ghost: No, that’s rare. I can honestly say that’s very rare. I’ve only ever really seen the silo mentality in most places that I’ve worked, before I went this route. So that’s pretty impressive. 

I would have loved to have been a fly on the wall for that conversation, although it sounds like it was easy, it just is what it is!

Sorry, Amrei. I just found that so interesting. That you had to go and redesign the whole group’s site just to make this work. But back to you, then. You were talking about pricing?

Amrei Botha: Yeah, I know, but definitely not easy. The other thing I think that’s important to also highlight is the level of collaboration across Capitec. It is really, truly like a family. 

And if you want to bounce an idea off of someone or you need support from a team or department; someone has a skill and expertise that they can add to make something better, people jump in. 

To Karl’s point, there are no silos or territories or “this isn’t my space”. We’re all CEOs and we all collaborate together to make sure it’s a success, for our clients and for Capitec. 

And I think throughout the build journey, that’s been one of our biggest kind of success factors. That collaboration and support across the group and the skills that got added to our build journey. 

But back to pricing. So, the pricing is transparently available on our website and clients can see it there. But beyond that, the website has now since expanded to become the space where clients can commence the process of opening a bank account with us. 

They can use our calculators on the website to see if they qualify for credit and for how much. So the website has really become a great tool for clients. And we, on some months, now get 250,000 visitors on our Capitec Business pages. So, it’s really grown tremendously. 

And like I mentioned, the website is our front door. It’s our entry point. It’s where you go to also open a bank account, so that was the second piece we needed to build – an onboarding process for new clients. 

We knew that the key to our journey would be growth, and first impressions matter. So we built an onboarding process that is fully remote. And I think a lot of that also got inspired by the realities of Covid.

If you never needed to go to a branch, how would this process flow? And if you had to do all of our compliance requirements and meet those standards, how would you do it, completely remote?

The Finance Ghost: Covid was the most weirdly wrapped-up gift in business history. I’m convinced of it. Like, it was the most awful thing, but it also has created a lot of huge improvements in the way we live our lives. Without a doubt.

Amrei Botha: Absolutely.

The Finance Ghost: And it’s that type of thinking, as you say, “How would you do this remotely?” Once you solve for that, then everything becomes digital, and it just becomes easier.

Amrei Botha: Yeah. And it really helped us put ourselves in the shoes of our clients. As a business owner, it may be a remote process, but what happens if suddenly that SME has clients that come in that they need to serve – how do they resume the process easily? 

If there are multiple people to sign into that account opening process for compliance reasons, how do you do that in a slick fashion? 

Fast-forward a bit, and we can open both sole proprietary accounts and registered company accounts remotely (so, Close Corporations and (Pty) Ltds) in somewhere from 10 minutes. Depending on if there are multiple signatories, how available they are, it can go up to half an hour. 

But at the end of that onboarding process, you’ve got your account number, your account is active, you can start transacting, you can make a deposit into it, you can immediately start making payments. And your app and online banking profile is also set up. 

Clients are instantly able to also audit a debit card if they need that (and I’ll speak to that in a bit more detail), but on average, about 17,000 clients now join us using our onboarding process. And it was the first patent of my career as well, which was an interesting experience.

We also have an assisted onboarding process, acknowledging that there are some businesses that have three or more directors. There are trusts, partnerships, clubs, associations, NPOs, NGOs. So we open accounts for all those other types of entities as well. 

But in those cases where the documentation is a bit more unique, we have our staff assist clients with those application processes. But, really exciting. And our clients give us really good reviews. It’s a key part that has fueled our growth over the last two years.

Karl Kumbier: Maybe just to chip in here. Ghost, you say you’ve opened up an account with us?

The Finance Ghost: Yes, I have.

Karl Kumbier: So you can go onto our website. If you’re a sole proprietor to a company with up to two directors, you open no paperwork whatsoever. You do everything remotely and you can open that account. On average it takes half an hour, but our quickest was like seven minutes. 

So, say it takes you 15, 20 minutes to open the account, then once you’ve opened the account, you download your app and you’ve got your online banking that’s active immediately. Then you get a virtual debit card – you do that on the app. 

And now in December, we went live with Apple Pay, so then we send you a push notification for Apple Pay and we link that virtual card to your Apple Pay. Then you can go into wherever you used to bank and you do a real time payment into this new Capitec Business account. 

And so within half an hour, from start to finish, you’ve got an account that’s really active, operating, working. And that’s what we wanted to build. Something that’s really slick and easy, for our clients to open an account.

Amrei Botha: Yeah. And then it goes without saying that we also needed to build an online banking platform, so that was a journey in itself. And that continues every day now, still. And critical for us was to make that free of charge. 

So, similar to our retail personal banking business, our business clients have free access to the app and online banking. Doesn’t matter if you’ve got R1 billion turnover or if you’re a startup still in the ideation phase, you get access to that platform. 

And you’re able to not only make payments, but also take up additional products there. You can access credit on our digital platforms, integrate with accounting software, make payments to SARS. 

Clients also have the ability to grant access to people within their business to assist with the operations and payment processing. They can set up authorisation flows as well to make sure that they’re in control.

So, it’s a really, really great platform and clients get access to that instantly – and it’s free of charge. Part of the process was also to build a debit card. And it may sound simple, that piece of plastic that we hold, but that was a year’s worth of work. 

We had to get a chip certified and the plastic designed and all the processes around it. And again, clients can instantly get their debit cards, whether it’s a virtual card or a physical card, upon account opening. They can personalise it, set their limits, issue additional cards for people within their business as they need. And very exciting, this coming year we’re going to rebuild our credit card and launch that. 

So, card has also been a key part. And recently in December, we launched Apple Pay and the other pays are also soon to come. That’s a really exciting journey for us, in terms of ease of payments for our clients. 

We also know that a lot of clients have excess cash or save towards specific goals, so we had to rebuild our savings and investment product set. 

And just a kind of key interesting stat on simplification: Mercantile had over 412 product types and we’ve simplified that down to 15 across all the different categories of products that a business bank would offer. 

So, we’ve got a savings account that clients can also open on the online banking platform, and an investment account that clients can open themselves. And it really helps clients to save towards goals or set money aside for specific purposes. 

I think the other exciting build to talk to is our incredible Capitec payments team. They almost reinvented card devices (or card machines) and built a really market-leading product. 

There’s a pro device and a print device – exactly the same. The one can print receipts, the other not. But again, we’re in the shoes of our clients and we design from a client perspective, so clients are also now able to get those card devices via our digital platforms or from any Capitec branch.

A really market-leading product in terms of ease of use. It’s the jingle you referred to earlier that people are starting to hear everywhere…

The Finance Ghost: That POS machine is literally the reason we are having this conversation. If I think back, that coffee I bought at Vida, that led to the Financial Mail article which led to my conversation with Capitec. 

It was that coffee and that jingle, which is kind of funny. But yeah, it’s a great marketing tool. Don’t underestimate how good that jingle is.

Amrei Botha: And there’s science behind it!

Karl Kumbier: I’m not sure if you saw on the print version, that little slip digitally goes up and then it prints into a physical piece of paper. So, we had this guy in the POS division franchise – he’s a real techie, and he came up with both these concepts. Can you believe it? 

He sat there one day and he said, “We want to be a little bit different. We want people to know when there’s a Capitec machine. You’ve got to hear it, not just see it.” 

And people will talk about it. It’s an amazing example of innovation from someone from within our technical team.

Amrei Botha: Yeah, we’ll talk about pricing a bit later, but the device is maybe just one of the examples. You often see, at restaurants, the waiter standing with a device up in the air, searching for signal.

One of the really cool features of the device is that it’s got two SIMs and wifi connection, so that a waiter never needs to stand with a device searching for signal – because we know speed matters when processing payments. So, it’s all those little things that ultimately add up to real market-leading products.

We also really disrupted the thinking and the model around POS or card machines. We changed our model from a rental to straight out buy-the-device model. So, clients have a once-off cost, which is much cheaper than the monthly rental fees. And then we also really reimagined the commission rates.

That’s on the product side, Ghost. I think beyond that, Karl mentioned “digitally led, but relationship based”. We really did a lot of build work (and one would think, “How much build is there associated with humans?”), but we did a lot of build work around our service model and our people.

Again, going back to Covid days, it was a debate how, for businesses, face-to-face matters. How do clients want to be serviced? Is it face to face? What do they want to do remotely? What do they want to do themselves?

But through Covid, we learned that most business owners are on the move. Most financial decision-makers are on the move. Their days aren’t predictable. That kind of created a whole different service model approach within Capitec. 

We built what we call the ‘Relationship Suite’ where we centralise a lot of our bankers. They are instantly available to our clients, as and when clients need us.

On our online banking channels, as an example, clients can click on a chat button and they instantly connect to one of these bankers to support them if they need any help on the app or online banking activities. 

But our bankers, very importantly, assist clients with onboarding. They also assist clients with getting access to credit. That team has grown tremendously over recent years. The big build behind it was not just the centralisation of the staff, but how we truly empower them so that they can make decisions in the moment of client interaction. 

What clients often told us in those early days was that they feel like they’re being sent from pillar to post at other organisations. They feel like they’re just a number; they feel like they need to repeat themselves. 

And so, quite critical for us is how we give that banker a single view of clients and, very importantly, that that view is available instantly in the moment of interaction.

On average, our bankers answer client calls within 30 to 40 seconds. And while the call connects, they know exactly who they’re going to speak to based on the phone number that’s coming in. 

It pulls up the client profile for them automatically and they can see exactly who they’re talking to. They’ve got a full view of recent interactions and challenges the client may have had, so they’re contextually aware in that moment of interaction. 

They can also see down to the level of email queries that a client may have had; challenges with solutions. They’re really, truly empowered in the moment of client interaction so that the clients don’t need to repeat themselves. 

We also purposely design handovers out of our processes to make sure that our Relationship Suite is able to support clients meaningfully and quickly.

Then we’ve also got our business centres, and this is where Sicelo comes in. We’ve got 19 business centres around South Africa in the nodes of business that matter most. Our bankers in our business centres, they focus on our larger clients, clients that still need the on-site support and the face-to-face deal structuring. And Sicelo heads that portfolio.

Sicelo Mkhize: Thanks, Amrei. I think maybe I’ll start with the relationship suite, just to add one point around that. I think most people actually think, when they’re calling into the bank, that it’s a call centre, or they’re calling into an environment where it’s a robot that’s answering and providing feedback.

On our side, what we’ve done well is we’ve got a team of trained professional bankers that are sitting in the Relationship Suite. I can take any one of those bankers and put them in front of any of the businesses that we’ve got around the country, and they’ll be able to have a quality conversation and be able to assist the client. 

So, I think that’s something that we pride ourselves on, in terms of the team that we’ve got in the relationship suite. It services 90% of the entrepreneurs across the country that bank with us. 

And then, coming back to Amrei’s point around the 19 business centres (soon to be 20 business centres), it’s basically a team of expert bankers that have a deep understanding of the local market.

If I use, as an example, a business centre based in George, it’s a team of business bankers who know exactly what’s happening in the environment that can actually provide that expert guidance and advice to entrepreneurs. 

They can walk down the factory, really understand the client better and be able to position it and provide a solution. What excites me with the teams that we’ve got around the country, they’re fully empowered – in line with our CEO values that Karl spoke about – to make the decisions on behalf of the client and be their trusted business partners. 

It’s a very strategic channel for us, that the teams are there for the client to understand their story and are able to articulate it and provide lending. To give you one very basic example, in terms of our bankers, they all have mandates to be able to approve certain credit transactions without necessarily having to go to credit to get support. 

It’s almost like the olden days of having a bank manager who’s always available, who understands your business and can provide a decision on the spot. So, I think it’s a very exciting channel for us.

The Finance Ghost: That’s very cool.

Amrei Botha: And we spoke earlier about the Capitec ‘Why’, but what excites me every day when I come to the office is the ‘Why’ of our people. Most of our bankers, they’re really excited to see businesses grow and they are absolutely passionate about supporting businesses to grow. 

An example is, in our relationship suite, they’ve got a bell and a big wall where, every time they approve a credit facility, they go and ring the bell. And they don’t celebrate the deal that we’ve written, they celebrate the dream that we’ve enabled. 

They’ll write down on that card, “So-and-so was able to find a vehicle that will now enable deliveries,” or, “We financed an overdraft that allows staff to be paid.” So, they’re very specific around the dreams that they’ve enabled for our clients.

The Finance Ghost: And maybe Amrei, I can actually add to that. Because people sometimes listen to something like this and go, “Oh yeah, well that’s the official corporate line and whatever. What actually happens in the background?” 

But there’ve been several episodes now in the season and obviously, I get to speak to the entrepreneur who will be a guest on the show – before the show, after the show (I’ve actually become friends with one or two of them, which is pretty cool) – the reality is there’s actually like a raw feedback session and I can hand-on-heart say, sincerely, the feedback is very positive – and particularly around access to funding. So I can believe that – everything you’ve said there, everything Sicelo said there, I can totally believe it because I’ve heard it, and I’ve heard it across everything from property down to franchise, in particular.

And just understanding that stuff. Because everything else you’ve talked about – the onboarding, the opening account – it’s very important, but it’s kind of like, when it’s done, it’s done. 

It’s nice if it’s better, absolutely. And it needs to be fast and it needs to be great and all that stuff. But at the end of the day, like long term, when someone tells their life story, “Why were you successful?” It’s not because they opened their account three minutes faster. 

It’s because at crunch time, they got the support they needed for the thing they needed to buy that made all the difference. And I think that is the most important thing, at least the feedback I’ve had. It’s very interesting.

Karl Kumbier: Just to chip in there, I 100% agree with what you said. I think access to finance is everything for a small business, because you can’t grow without working capital. You can’t grow, you can’t buy that stock, you can’t buy that delivery vehicle, without finance – unless someone wealthy gave you money (your parents, whatever) to start your business with.

And what we found was a lot of entrepreneurs are too scared to ask for finance because they’re scared that they’re going to get declined. It’s not a nice feeling, being declined. So what we decided to do is we wanted to make sure, for small businesses, we’ll build scorecards and an overdraft just as the most important lending product – because that’s your working capital to help grow your business, right? So you can pay salaries and wages and you can buy stock and do all of those things. 

So we came up with a plan. We built scorecards, we used really good data and we pre-approved clients. Now if you’ve been in our books for a while, we pre-approve you and we actually offer the overdraft to you in your app. 

You can then look at the overdraft, the terms and conditions, you can sign all the agreements electronically through a selfie and then we’ll load the facility on the account. And the average time it takes to do all of that is three minutes, from start to finish. 

So we present you with the overdraft and you think, “Wow, I actually need it.” Because we actually looked at your transactional banking, so we say, “Okay, this person is going to probably need an overdraft.” 

They go, “Wow.” And three minutes later, the thing’s loaded on the account. So yeah, that’s exactly right. And that’s why we’re spending so much time and effort on our lending products.

Amrei Botha: Yeah, that’s probably been one of the most significant builds that we’ve done over the last few years. And to Karl’s point, clients can get any kind of facility from R10,000 up to R2 million using that process. And 83% of applications are taken up through our app. 

So, it’s been a really accessible way back to our four fundamentals of giving access to credit to our clients. Behind that sits, similar to our client relationship management system that we built in partnership with Salesforce, we’ve also been on a journey to rebuild our credit workflow system. That gives us a view of our end-to-end credit lifecycle for a client. And again, we want to understand the total group exposure of a client, the client’s credit life cycle, and make sure that we can support them throughout that. 

I think one of the other innovations that we’ve built over the last couple of years that’s interesting, talking about access to credit, is a merchant loan solution. 

So, the card machine we spoke about earlier was a starting point, but we realised the turnover data (of the value of transactions processed through that card machine) can be an interesting way to grant access to finance to SMEs who perhaps wouldn’t otherwise have gotten access to credit, or who don’t have a credit record. 

So, we started using the turnover through the device to give clients a facility. And then also, to make the monthly repayment less daunting, we collect daily on those loans. 

Once you get a loan, the next client that swipes, we take a small percentage of that towards a loan repayment. It’s a far less daunting way for a small business to get access to finance for buying stock, as an example. 

We’ve reimagined that product subsequently, to change it so that we don’t just look at the POS device turnover, but all turnover through the account. That’s also been a really great success.

In less than 10 minutes, clients can get access to those facilities – and again, up to R2 million in size.

The Finance Ghost: Amrei, thank you so much. That is such a brilliant overview of building a bank. I think people are so used to the products, we all use them every single day. We swipe, we make a payment, we log on to our internet banking. 

Not everyone appreciates – or very few people appreciate, nevermind not everyone – what has gone into actually building this thing. So, thank you. Some amazing insights coming through there. 

And you can kind of see the DNA of Capitec coming through. It’s all about the clients at the end of the day. 

Sicelo, I think let’s move on to you, because of course the client needs to pay you something for all of this, and making sure that the fee is nice and competitive is very important, alongside all these other differentiators. And obviously, this is your role, at the end of the day. 

As Head of Distribution, you’re in charge of making sure that more people are coming to Capitec Business. So, not just how the pricing helps you with that, but the broader differentiation. If someone stopped you in the elevator and said, “Why should I bank with Capitec Business?” What would that answer look like?

Sicelo Mkhize: Thanks for that. I think, from my side, the most important feedback that we get from clients is the cost of banking. So, one of the things that we looked at on our side is to say, “How do we change that landscape for entrepreneurs?” 

We came up with a solution where our transactional banking pricing for business clients is exactly the same as the transactional banking for individuals. In simple terms, if Ghost (as an individual) banks with Capitec and Ghost (as an entrepreneur) and his business bank with Capitec, you get exactly the same pricing experience.

Which is a game changer in the industry. It’s unheard of, if you look at what we’ve done. But what we then also went and did, is to say, “How do we make it so simple that even a child that’s at crèche can understand our pricing structure?”

The Finance Ghost: I have a child at crèche. I’m going to test you on this. Sicelo, I’m going to test you! [laughing]

Sicelo Mkhize: [laughing] I’ve got a two year old, that would be a very good test!

The Finance Ghost: Okay, no, so you understand. Inbetween Bluey we can run them through some pricing.

Amrei Botha: Mine knows it all by heart.

The Finance Ghost: There we go. There we go. [laughing]

Sicelo Mkhize: [laughing] I always laugh when I see the adverts, with my 2-year-old starting to sing the pricing of Capitec as “1, 2, 3, 6, 10”.

But in simple terms, what we’ve done on the pricing. If you bank with Capitec and you want to pay your employees, it’s R1, Capitec-to-Capitec. If your employees bank with any of the other banks, it’s R2 that you’re paying. For debit orders, it’s R3. For immediate payment (which is immediate), it’s R6 on our side. And for cash withdrawal fees per thousand, it’s R10. 

So actually, we’ve created a very simple structure for our entrepreneurs. We’ve also received some very positive feedback from some of our clients, telling us that they’ve been able to save up to 50% based on them having joined Capitec. 

It really talks to what we wanted to achieve on our side, by reducing the cost of banking in order for us to enable our clients to be able to pass that benefit to their business and be able to create employment. And I think, for us, that’s the exciting part. 

I had one client giving me feedback saying that he can afford to buy a beach house with the cost saving that he’s been able to achieve from Capitec. And that’s the true Capitec style, in terms of affordability, that we’ve created and that goes along all the product lines that we present to our clients. 

Our merchant devices are the most affordable in the industry and we’re constantly looking at better ways to improve and create more affordability structures for our clients. We often get questions from entrepreneurs saying, “You’re reducing the price in order to hook us in and to then be able to increase the price later on on your site.” 

And if you look at Capitec’s history from a retail point of view, call it over the past 5 to 10 years, you’d actually see that the way we think about it is to say, “How do we reduce it even further than where we are at the moment?” I think for us, it’s an exciting space that we’re in, in terms of passing pricing benefits to our clients.

The Finance Ghost: Sicelo, I can’t wait for you to have your parent feedback meeting one day and they say, “You know, your little one is adorable and smart, but the maths is just not mathing. She or he counts, ‘1, 2, 3, 6, 10’ instead of ‘1, 2, 3, 4, 5’.” 

I worry for your child’s future in that regard, but I love the simplification. Very nice.

Sicelo Mkhize: They work on simple exponential math. [laughing]

The Finance Ghost: [laughing] 100%. Yeah, there we go, exactly. Just show them that slide from the investor presentation and it’ll be fine.

Karl, let’s bring it back to you then and, in the interest of time, just talking about how quickly this thing has grown. Amrei’s taken us through what’s been built. Sicelo’s talked about how smart the pricing is and everything else. We’ve talked about the Capitec DNA coming into this thing. All of this has added up into success.

That, I think, is the reality. Like most things Capitec touches, bluntly, it’s turned into a success. What does that look like for you, in terms of the growth flywheel and how that’s come through in the stats?

Karl Kumbier: Yeah, so I think, to Sicelo’s point, we’ll save clients at least 50% in bank charges. And the larger you are, the more you save – only because you’re doing more transactions. 

We’re saving some of the large businesses moving to us up to 90%. So it’s a massive saving. Then you say, “Geez, but how is it possible that you can make money?” 

Because also, for the POS device, we’ve got the lowest commission rates in the country. And we’re the only bank in the country that’s transparent, 100% transparent, in what we charge. 

So you’ve got four turnover bands and you get a certain rate. But if you’re doing more than R1 million a month through your POS device, you’re going to pay 0.6% on debit card, 1.6% on credit, which is extremely low.

But the reason we’ve done this is because, firstly, we feel, “Why should you pay more for business banking than you do for retail banking? That doesn’t make sense. Let’s align the pricing and let’s drive down the cost of pricing so that people will come bank with us.”

So we drove down the cost of banking. We signed these small businesses up. When we sign the business, we’ve got transactional data. When we’ve got the data, we can analyse that data, and we can then lend that little business money so they can grow. 

And then obviously, if we lend money, we make more revenue and then we use that revenue to keep driving down the cost of banking, like Sicelo said, or we improve the client experience. And then this flywheel will just start spinning as more and more clients join us. 

So since we went live, rebranded and repriced, it’s been an amazing growth journey. We literally… In the old Mercantile days, I think we had about, I don’t know, maybe 5,000 clients in total? We’re currently signing up 17,000 new businesses every month. 

And then our POS, our merchants – a year ago, if I look at (and I’m just going on June numbers because we’re obviously a listed company and what we disclose to the public), in June, now, half-year numbers: a year before, we had 30,000 merchants trading. At half-year, we had 85,000. 

In one year, we grew from 30,000 to 85,000! So we’re signing up loads of merchants.

And then I think, “Have we achieved our goal of growing our lending?” Our lending book has grown 23%, year-on-year, if you look at it from that half year. So, we’ve got a lending book now of R26 billion to small businesses. So, yes.

Are we stopping there? Are we where we want to be? No. We want to keep tweaking the product, keep doing what we need to do. But we’re definitely making nice progress now.

The Finance Ghost: Look, it’s amazing. Congratulations. Well done. And of course, underneath all these numbers are real people running real businesses, who we heard from in the episodes before this one in the season, and certainly the ones to come. 

But is there perhaps a top-of-mind – you know, you go home, you’ve had a long day, as great as this all is, we all have bad days – and you think to yourself, “Well, there was that one client where we made a real difference,” or, “There was that one story where I felt really good about something that happened.” 

Do any of you have a client story like that, that’s just kind of stuck with you? To the extent you can share it, obviously, without giving away anyone’s personal information.

Sicelo Mkhize: Yeah, thanks for that, Ghost. I think maybe I can highlight two simple examples on our side. There’s a client called Dry Ice International. When they started banking with us, they had just over 50 employees.

And then from that time, three years ago, when they started banking with us, they’ve grown exponentially. Revenue has increased more than 3x, from a growth point of view. And then in terms of number of employees, they’ve also increased their employees to 178 at the moment.

They’ve also expanded their outlets. Where they had two outlets in Johannesburg, they’ve got seven outlets across the country, and they supply to over 90 retail stores across the country. 

You’ll probably see them in the airlines, in terms of their products that get utilised to keep the cold drinks and so forth cool. It’s been a great success story, just talking to the entrepreneur behind the business.

It’s actually amazing when you hear the feedback. Since we provided the first lending to him to where he is now and to where he wants to get to in the next five years, we’ve really grown with him in the way that we want, to actually make a difference in South Africa on our side. 

So, that’s the one story that sticks out on my side. I know, Karl, you’ve also spoken to the entrepreneur. I don’t know if there’s anything that you wanted to add.

Karl Kumbier: We love seeing our clients grow. To me, nothing makes work more satisfying than seeing our clients growing their businesses because, as I said, they’re creating jobs and they’re creating wealth for themselves.

But one real success story that stood out for me was Cartrack. Cartrack has been banking with us for many years (the tracking company). But when they were still small, they were banking with us. 

We did the debit order collections and we did a good job of that. Then we got the transactional banking and just grew and grew. Next thing, they listed on the stock exchange and from there, they listed on the Nasdaq and then the head office moved to Singapore. 

Yeah, so that’s a hugely successful story. And so now, we just love seeing businesses grow.

The Finance Ghost: Zak and the team there have built a helluva thing. It’s an amazing business.

Karl Kumbier: Yeah!

Sicelo Mkhize: And then maybe just the last one on my side is a business out of Pretoria, one of the townships in Pretoria. You might have heard from our previous CEO how passionate we are in terms of wanting to change the landscape in the township as well as the rural market, and especially the informal market.

So in this particular story, it’s a business called Delivery Ka Speed. It actually started delivering products in the township. But if I look at the growth over the last two years, it’s actually moved away from that business model into a more formal corporate structure. 

He’s actually supplying and distributing on behalf of blue chip companies that are listed on the Stock Exchange. He’s also distributing, for multinationals that supply products in South Africa, into the township. He really understands that market.

He’s subsequently opened up three other branches across the country, which is a phenomenal story coming out of the township.

The Finance Ghost: Yeah, very cool. I love hearing these stories. I think as we start to bring it to a close, let’s just talk about the future of business banking. Just a few minutes on that, really. 

And of course, the future of business banking will depend on the future of SMEs and what these problems are that SMEs need to solve, but also the products that you can bring them. 

Sometimes, the customer doesn’t know what he or she wants. That’s one of the most fundamental principles of business. Some of the biggest companies in the world have been built like that.

From your perspective, in the years to come, what are you looking to do? I mean, to the extent you can share it, obviously. What are some of the big-ticket items that you think might be coming?

Karl Kumbier: Yeah, I think with the formal market, we’re just going to keep doing what we’re doing. We’re not into bells and whistles; we’re into getting the basics right and offering a good service to our clients.

So, we’ll keep chipping away at the formal market and hopefully bank most of the startup businesses. When you start a business, you think Capitec, and you join us. Then we take market share away from the traditional banks. 

So, I suppose that’s the formal market then, but we see a massive, massive opportunity in what we call the ‘emerging markets’ – the township economy. We spent two years in Tembisa trying to understand the market. 

We had a team there and, at the end of the day, if I had to summarise, it’s quite simple. In the township market, that little business, they want an affordable bank account, so we can tick that box. You want to be able to accept payment electronically (because it’s not great to have cash), so we’ve now ticked that box with our affordable POS device. And then they want access to finance to be able to help grow the product. We just launched a new product, that Amrei mentioned, where you can actually collect every day, as opposed to once a month.

We’ve now got those three products in place and we’ve got 850 retail branches around the country. So, you’re launching this transactional account through the branch network. 

As an example, we’ve got 13 branches in Tembisa, so we’re very excited about that market. They’re going to put a lot of effort into growing the township economy and providing access to finance to people who haven’t really had it in the past.

The Finance Ghost: That is a huge growth area, so I’ll be quite excited to see that come through, I think. Final comments – Amrei, I’m going to ask you for one piece of advice for the entrepreneurs listening to this or one insight that you want to just leave with them, as a part of this opportunity to speak to South Africa’s entrepreneurs.

Amrei Botha: Yeah, I think at Capitec, obviously we are ready and available to support small businesses if they need help. So, just an open invitation. But I think something that is starting to change our business quite rapidly is artificial intelligence (AI). 

We’ve seen that that’s actually a very useful tool for a lot of small businesses. And in some of our recent client engagements we see more and more small business owners and entrepreneurs are starting to turn to AI to support their businesses and give them efficiencies and some relief on some of the admin work that they used to do. 

So, maybe just an encouragement for businesses to also explore that. Maybe there’s a future Ghost podcast that can deal with that as a topic.

The Finance Ghost: Yeah, don’t be scared of technology; try and find how it works for you. That’s certainly the Capitec way. Sicelo, anything from you?

Sicelo Mkhize: Yeah, I think lastly from my side the most important thing is obviously the entrepreneur. So on our side, we get to support entrepreneurs. We are available to listen to them.

We’re going to give them an umbrella when they need it, even when they don’t know they need it, just to make sure that they’re always protected to grow their business. 

I think that’s the part that excites us: really changing the landscape of South Africa and being able to reduce the unemployment through supporting entrepreneurs.

The Finance Ghost: I love it. And then Karl, final words from you?

Karl Kumbier: Yeah, I think the one little bit of advice I can give to small businesses that we’ve learned at Capitec is we always take a long-term view. So, when you’re looking at your business, don’t do things in the short term, to try and get a short-term gain. Do things for the long term. Always look big picture. 

As an example, when we repriced, we gave back R300 million in fees to our clients. You say, “Wow, you’re taking a massive knock!” No. We’re taking a long-term view. Over the next 10 years, we’re going to grow our client base. 

The only advice I’d give to small business is: always take a long-term view in everything you do in your business.

The Finance Ghost: Yeah, absolutely. And those fee savings are creating jobs, being reinvested in equipment, being invested in dividends so that people get better returns and they start more businesses. All of that is true. 

Karl, Amrei, Sicelo, thank you so much for your time today. It’s been a fabulous conversation. We really got into the details, which I love, and I look forward to doing more of these Capitec podcasts with other entrepreneurs. 

And to anyone listening to this podcast, go check out the rest of season. Some really genuinely authentic (I can tell you, because I’ve had the off-air conversations with them) conversations with entrepreneurs who have had really good experiences with Capitec and who want to tell their story of their businesses. 

So Karl, Amrei, Sicelo, all the best for 2026 and beyond, and thank you so much for your time.

Karl Kumbier: Thank you.

Amrei Botha: Thank you, guys.

Sicelo Mkhize: Thank you.

Ghost Bites (Araxi | Aveng | DRDGOLD | Glencore | Grindrod | Merafe | Pan African Resources | Sibanye-Stillwater | Transpaco)

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Araxi has pulled the trigger on a major acquisition in the payments space (JSE: AXX)

This is why they have been trading under cautionary

Araxi consists of two businesses: a payments operation that everyone thinks is a great business, and a software operation that very few people think is a great business. Thankfully, in their decision to execute a R1 billion acquisition, they’ve decided to push further into payments rather than software.

Araxi will acquire 80% of Pay At Holdings and its international affiliate. This is the Pay@ business, founded in 2007 and now enjoying over 9,000 retailer locations and many access points across mobile POS payments and downloaded integrated apps. They operate in South Africa, Namibia, Botswana, Zimbabwe, Eswatini and Lesotho.

To make this deal happen, Araxi will need to tap the banks for debt. They are funding the transaction using R200 million of existing cash resources and R800 million in new debt, so the days of having a net cash balance sheet are over.

What are they getting for this price? Well, Pay@ processed over R60 billion in transaction value in the past 12 months, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) in revenue of 22% over the past three years.

Does it make money though? For the six months to August 2025, Pay@ generated revenue of R158.8 million and EBITDA of R72.4 million. Net profit was R49.7 million. So yes, it does make money.

With 80% of the company valued at R1 billion, the implied value for 100% is R1.25 billion (even though it doesn’t quite work that way because of the control premium in the 80% stake). But for simplicity, and with the conservative additional step of annualising the recent interim profit without adding on any further growth, the Price/Earnings multiple is roughly 12.5x.

I have no doubt that some synergies are part of the plan, but the good news is that this company makes a profit and is being acquired at a decent multiple that doesn’t require heroic assumptions about the integration strategy.

This is a Category 1 transaction, so shareholders of Araxi will be asked to vote on the deal. Investors are often nervous of large transactions, but this one seems pretty sensible to me.


Aveng flags slightly positive HEPS (JSE: AEG)

At least they aren’t making a headline loss anymore

Aveng has released a trading statement for the six months to December 2025. HEPS of between A$0.1 cents and A$0.3 cents won’t set anyone’s hair on fire, but it’s a whole lot better than the headline loss per share of A$26.7 cents in the comparable period.

Notably, there’s still a small loss per share without the adjustments made to get to the headline number.

The market will have to wait for the release of results on 24 February to get further information. The share price is down 37% in the past year. The chart has odd recent activity that took the share price from below R5.00 to around R7.40 in the space of a few weeks, all before it fell back down again to the current level of R5.13. If you don’t like volatility, the construction sector certainly isn’t for you.


HEPS almost doubled at DRDGOLD (JSE: DRD)

The gold price did the heavy lifting here, as gold production was down

In the gold sector, it always feels like DRDGOLD has to play life on hard mode. By processing tailings, they find themselves dealing with difficulties ranging from security around the Joburg mine dumps through to actually getting access to decent materials to process. It’s not easy, which is why they are particularly reliant on the gold price going the right way.

This is exactly what has happened of course, so the results for the six months to December 2025 look great. Despite a 9% drop in gold production and a 7% decrease in gold sold, they achieved a 72% increase in operating profit and a 98% jump in HEPS.

The average gold price received was 43% higher. It’s pretty hard to go wrong when the product you sell has gone up so sharply in price.

The company acknowledges that the gold price was the “main actor” in these numbers. It helped DRDGOLD add nearly R430 million to the cash position despite having capex of R1.65 billion. The group is undertaking a major capital programme at the moment, with the gold price increase coming at exactly the right time.

They’ve also enjoyed a jump in the interim dividend from 30 cents to 50 cents per share. For all the challenges in the model, this is the company’s 19th consecutive year of declaring an interim dividend. That’s impressive.

The share price is up nearly 190% in the past year.


Glencore met full-year guidance for key commodities (JSE: GLN)

And of course, copper is where you’ll find most of the focus

Glencore has released results for the year ended December 2025. They met guidance for full-year production volumes for their main commodities, so that’s good news for investors. But perhaps the best news of all is that copper production was up nearly 50% in the second half vs. the first half of the year. That’s the kind of momentum that people want to see.

And “momentum” is also where Glencore wants you to focus, particularly because adjusted EBITDA was actually down 6% for the full year. The exit velocity from 2025 is what the bulls will point to here, with second-half EBITDA being 49% higher than the first half.

Glencore has exposure to a number of underlying commodities, so volatility in the numbers is to be expected. It was the energy and steelmaking coal business that dragged the story down in 2025, with metals pricing helping to offset much of the pain.

With steady net debt and illustrative free cash flow generation of $7 billion based on current commodity prices, Glencore feels confident enough to pay a top-up dividend that takes the total dividend for the year to 17 US cents per share. They will pay it in two instalments.

Separately, Glencore announced that they finalised an agreement with Gécamines for land access at Kamoto Copper Company (KCC). In simple terms, this means that KCC can expand the tailing storage facility and related operations, while maximising the recovery of ore reserves within the existing permitted areas. In Big Mining at the moment, it’s all about increasing production of copper wherever they can. Notably, Gécamines maintains the rights to any ore reserves extracted from the leased land.

The share price is up 42.5% in the past year as the market has focused exactly where Glencore wants them to focus: on copper.


Grindrod’s core business is working (JSE: GND)

The market has shown its appreciation

Grindrod closed over 6% higher on Wednesday in response to the release of a trading statement. This takes the 12-month share price performance to 43%, which tells you that they have given the market a lot to feel good about.

For the year ended December 2025, HEPS from continuing operations increased by between 15% and 20%. This puts it at between 172.8 cents and 180.3 cents. For context, the share price closed at R18.74, so the Price/Earnings (P/E) multiple is in the double digits.

The core operations have been boosted by the Port and Terminals business, with the Matola Terminal and the Maputo Port operated terminal achieving record volumes.

Due to the extent of corporate activity in the past couple of years, Earnings Per Share (EPS) will differ significantly from HEPS. The growth rate in total HEPS (vs. HEPS from continuing operations) is also enormous. The number to focus on, though, is HEPS from continuing operations, with the high teens growth rate as an impressive confirmation that the strategy is working.


Merafe’s Lion Smelter roars back into life (JSE: MRF)

Eskom has given them a lifeline – for now

With the ferrochrome industry in dire straits (as confirmed by adjacent casualty Afrimat (JSE: AFT) in their recent update), the likes of Merafe desperately needed a break. Electricity costs have made it impossible to run the smelters.

Keep in mind that Merafe’s business is a joint venture with Glencore (JSE: GLN), so this is relevant to shareholders in that company too.

Now, there are a lot of very good arguments to be made around whether an industry should ever be given a preferential tariff. After all, what makes one special vs. the other? And why should taxpayers subsidise it?

I suspect that the country is better off if an industry like this receives cheaper electricity and continues to employ many people. It’s hard to imagine that the contribution isn’t a net positive.

This debate will no doubt rage on. But in the meantime, Merafe’s Lion Smelter can at least get back to work, with the successful recommissioning of 50% of its operating capacity and a plan to return to 100% by 31 March 2026. This comes after NERSA approved a 12-month interim electricity tariff of 87.74 cents per kWh.

But here’s the catch: Merafe says that the long-term commercially viable tariff needs to be 62 cents per kWh. That’s a long way down from the freshly approved level. It’s also the level at which the Boshoek and Wonderkop smelters can be brought back online, so this shows you how wildly unprofitable these operations would be at a market-related tariff.

The negotiations around the tariff continue. If a viable solution for Boshoek and Wonderkop isn’t found by 28 February 2026, the s189 retrenchment consultation process will begin at those operations.


Pan African Resources and a casual six-fold increase in HEPS (JSE: PAN)

They expect to shortly be in a net cash position shortly

Pan African Resources has been a wonderful story, especially for me as a shareholder. The combination of higher production, strong gold prices and a rolling off of gold price hedges has done wonders for the recent performance.

For the six months to December 2025, revenue was up by 157.3% and HEPS jumped by an astonishing 511.7% (more than a six-fold increase) 1.20 US cents to 7.34 US cents. The record profits have of course led to an even stronger balance sheet, with net debt down 69.3% as at December. By the end of February 2026, they expect to be in a net cash position rather than a net debt position – and this is despite paying large dividends.

The old saying, “it’s a gold mine” is making a lot more sense in this environment.

It isn’t all good news, of course. Although production looks good overall, there were some drags on that story. For example, the Mogale Tailings Retreatment (MTR) facility was around 10% below expected production, with mined grades and recoveries leading to that outcome.

The other obvious negative is that all-in sustaining cost (AISC) was miles above guidance ($1,874/oz vs. guidance of $1,525/oz – $1,575/oz). The stronger rand impacted this by $115/oz, while other negative impacts came from higher share-based payments due to the rally in the company’s share price, as well as third-party material costs at Evander Mines and MTR and the higher royalty payments based on the gold price.

So, some of the cost pressure is actually just a function of success. But some of it isn’t, so shareholders will want to just keep an eye on that. The revised guidance for the full year is $1,820/oz to $1,870/oz.

In terms of total production, they expect between 275,000 and 292,000 ounces of the yellow stuff to come out of the ground. I went back and checked: in the year ended June 2025, production was 196,527 ounces. You can therefore see why earnings are so much higher.


Sibanye-Stillwater’s HEPS increased by 3.6x in 2025 (JSE: SSW)

When cyclicals deliver, they really deliver

It really wasn’t that long ago that the narrative at Sibanye-Stillwater was focused on battening down the hatches and preparing for a long, cold winter in PGMs. Fast forward to today and the company is celebrating a trading statement that reflects a 3.6x increase in HEPS to between 232 cents and 256 cents for the year ended December 2025!

There are two important lessons here. The first is that hope is not a strategy. Companies must always follow a self-help strategy of giving themselves the best chance of surviving long enough to get lucky. The second is that if you can survive, your chance of getting lucky is probably better than you think it is. A mix of realism and optimism is a cocktail that most entrepreneurs will be highly familiar with.

With the average gold and PGM prices (up 39% and 28% respectively) delivering a much better operating environment, lucky is exactly how Sibanye-Stillwater must feel right now. But they also made plenty of tough (and necessary) decisions along the way to get to this point.

Local PGM production was within guidance, as was local gold production. US PGM production was ahead of the upper end of guidance. Overall, there’s an increase in group revenue of at least 160%, so that does great things for profits.

Interestingly, they are still loss-making from an EPS perspective. This is due to non-cash impairments of a whopping R14 billion. One of the main adjustments between EPS and HEPS is to reverse the impact of impairments, giving investors a better indication of cash earnings.

This doesn’t mean that impairments should be ignored entirely, though. They reflect bad outcomes from previous capital allocation decisions. Just one such example is the R7.8 billion impairment of the Keliber lithium project. There has also been some unfortunate luck, like the Kloof impairment due to the reduced life of mine based on geotechnical factors, and the R4.2 billion impairment of the US PGM operations that was triggered by the One Big Beautiful Bill Act.

Those who bought at the bottom of the cycle have had some Big Beautiful Returns, that much I can tell you. The share price is at around R64, miles higher than the 52-week low of R13.88!


Transpaco’s numbers have gone the wrong way (JSE: TPC)

And operating leverage has worked against them here

Transpaco has released results for the six months to December 2025. Revenue fell by 1.5%, with the company blaming the current economic conditions. If we look a bit deeper, the Plastics business increased by 1.1%, while Paper and Board was down by 4.6%.

When revenue dips in a manufacturing company, there’s little chance of profits moving higher. This is because of the prevalence of fixed costs in an industrial model. Sure enough, operating profit fell by 6.1% and operating margin contracted from 8.2% to 7.8%.

HEPS has dropped by 6% to 253.6 cents. The dividend is 6.7% lower at 70 cents per share.

The bigger concern is that the interim period is typically when Transpaco enjoys the seasonal strength of the festive shopping season and the impact on demand for various packaging materials. With a disappointing set of numbers for the first six months of the financial year, the second half is under real pressure.

The share price isn’t the most liquid thing in the world, but it is up 6.9% in the past year. These results don’t support that move.


Nibbles

  • Director dealings:
    • A non-executive director of British American Tobacco (JSE: BTI) bought shares worth around R475k.
    • The financial director of KAL Group (JSE: KAL) bought shares worth R189k. A director of a subsidiary also bought shares, in that case to the value of R69k. KAL is seen as a solid local company, so further purchases by insiders will only add to that sentiment.
    • An associate of a director of Visual International (JSE: VIS) sold shares worth R76k.
    • The CFO of Mantengu (JSE: MTU) has added another R12.6k to his recent purchases.
  • British American Tobacco (JSE: BTI) is presenting at the 2026 Consumer Analyst Group of New York Conference. You’ll find the slides here if you want to check them out. The company also reaffirmed the guidance that was announced on 12 February 2026, just in case people were perhaps worried that something had changed in the past week. This means 3% – 5% revenue growth, 4% – 6% adjusted profit from operations growth and 5% – 8% adjusted diluted EPS growth for FY26.
  • Efora Energy (JSE: EEL) has renewed its cautionary announcement regarding negotiations for a potential transaction. No further details are available at this stage.

Ghost Bites (Afrimat | BHP | MTN | Sirius Real Estate)

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Can Afrimat stop the slide in the share price? (JSE: AFT)

They took a big risk on Lafarge – and the environment hasn’t been kind to them

Businesses go through good times and bad. This is simply a reality of the world that we operate in. This is why investing in shares is a risk, as growth is by no means guaranteed and things can go wrong. The reward for that risk is that you could earn high returns.

Some investors prefer to operate with highly concentrated portfolios that chase the highest possible returns (for the most risk), while others (like me) prefer to spread the risk across many names.

The Afrimat share price chart is a perfect example of why I believe strongly in diversification:

This is a good time to point out that Afrimat is actually a very good company with a strong management team. But if you keep rolling the dice on acquisitions, sooner or later you’re going to roll a 1 instead of a 6.

The share price has lost more than a third of its value in the past year because the timing of the high-risk Lafarge acquisition happened to coincide with several other things going wrong. Perfect storms can happen to the best of us.

Naturally, this means that the market is looking for the bottom in this share price chart. Much like Donkey in Shrek 2, we continuously find ourselves asking: “Are we there yet?”

The answer isn’t easy to figure out.

In a pre-close business update, Afrimat has given plenty of narrative and only a handful of detailed numbers to work with. At least we know that the debt/equity ratio is consistent with previously reported levels, so the balance sheet isn’t getting worse – and also isn’t getting any better. This should improve going forward thanks to asset disposals and the related proceeds being used to reduce debt. They are also in the process of refinancing debt to have a longer-term profile.

Digging into the underlying businesses, we begin with the Construction Materials segment and specifically the aggregates business, where Afrimat expects margin in FY26 to improve slightly, provided you take out the non-core businesses that have been disposed of. They’ve been focused on delivering numerous improvement projects aimed at enhancing margin in the continuing operations. Time will tell what that really means for the numbers.

In the cement business, sales volumes are expected to be up vs. the prior period. The business is sadly still in a loss-making position, but the losses did at least reduce in the second half of the year.

Moving on to the Bulk Commodities business, the significant underlying risk for the iron ore operations is the exposure to ArcelorMittal (JSE: ACL), a business in crisis. Government has been in negotiations with ArcelorMittal for ages now, but there’s still no resolution to the situation that will impact thousands of jobs. At least offtake to the Flats business in Vanderbijlpark increased, but even that part of the ArcelorMittal group isn’t safe in the current environment of massive disruption to the South African industrial base.

The natural response to a lack of domestic demand would be to export the surplus iron ore and tap into the export market. But this isn’t so easy, as volumes are only expected to be flat year-on-year thanks to shipment capacity being 16% lower than the committed rail allocation. The infrastructure in South Africa just keeps letting our companies down. To add insult to injury, international iron ore pricing has dipped from $105 to $101 – and that’s even worse in rand.

In anthracite, the domestic business is suffering with a decline in volumes thanks to the shutdown of the ferrochrome smelters. The Nkomati Anthracite Mine was closed from November 2025 to January 2026 based on the disastrous state of the ferrochrome industry in South Africa. Afrimat had skeleton staff in place this month in anticipation of a restart date for the smelters, but such a date has not been confirmed.

This is one of the places where Afrimat does give specific numbers: local volumes of anthracite are expected to be half of the levels achieved in 2025. Yikes!

In this case, there was a significant boost in exports to try and offset the dramatic decrease in local volumes. They put in a valiant effort, but total volumes for FY26 will still be around 3% less than FY25.

The Glenover project is still important to the long-term plans, but Afrimat has more than enough other things to keep them busy right now. They are assessing different processing methods for this asset and engaging with potential international partners. I can’t imagine that this is getting much headspace from management at the moment. Ditto for Industrial Minerals, which was also impacted by the smelters.

At this stage, it feels like Afrimat is truly between a rock and a hard place – and in a way that even the execs of a quarrying business wouldn’t enjoy. 20 years into their corporate journey, they are dealing with major challenges. I worry about the extent of exposure to major underlying risks like the ferrochrome smelters, and ArcelorMittal, not to mention Transnet in terms of exports. To top it all off, the stronger rand is making exports less attractive for Afrimat and imported alternatives more affordable for its customers.

To answer Donkey’s question: no, I don’t think we are there yet. But what do you think?


BHP is off to a great start in FY26 (JSE: BHG)

There’s a sharp increase in HEPS for the first half of the year

Mining giant BHP has released earnings for the six months to December 2025. With underlying EBITDA margin up by 7 percentage points to 58%, it was a strong period for them. Net operating cash flow increased by 13% and HEPS was up by 30%!

It won’t surprise you that copper features strongly in the story, with an EBITDA margin of 66% and production up 2%. Iron ore isn’t exactly far behind, with an EBITDA margin of 62% (thanks to extensive focus on efficiencies at Western Australia Iron Ore) and production growth also sitting at 2%.

Steelmaking coal is far less lucrative, with an EBITDA margin of only 15%. Production was up 2% in that commodity as well.

BHP certainly knows how to play the game from an investor relations perspective, with the presentation including striking references like “world’s highest margin major iron ore business” and “world’s largest copper producer and resource” – it’s nice to sit at the top of the pile!

And the top is where BHP will remain, now that we know that Glencore (JSE: GLN) and Rio Tinto abandoned talks to create the world’s largest mining company.

With copper production guidance for FY26 increased, BHP is on track for a great year. This is why the share price is up 21% over 12 months.

In a separate announcement, BHP confirmed that they have entered into a streaming agreement with Wheaton Precious Metals International. This has nothing to do with Netflix and everything to do with obtaining upfront funding of $4.3 billion for the delivery of silver from the Antamina mine.

Interestingly, BHP is only a 33.75% shareholder in CMA, the company that owns the Antamina mine. CMA is not a party to this streaming agreement. There’s clearly some fancy financial and legal footwork here, as the streaming deal also doesn’t come through as debt on BHP’s balance sheet, even though it strikes me as an obligation to deliver silver.

The core of the deal is that BHP will deliver 33.75% of the silver produced by Antamina to Wheaton until they have delivered 100 million ounces. After that milestone is reached, BHP will deliver 22.5% of Antamina’s silver to Wheaton. In addition to the upfront payment, Wheaton will pay BHP 20% of the spot silver price at the time of delivery.


MTN is moving ahead with the deal for IHS (JSE: MTN)

But they only want the African towers, not the LatAm footprint

MTN recently confirmed that it was in discussions regarding the potential acquisition of the 75.3% in IHS that it doesn’t already own. IHS has over 28,700 towers across five key markets in Africa, including in South Africa. They serve 10 out of the 13 mobile network operators in Africa.

This deal is an unusual approach to capital allocation, as the industry has been focused on separating the tower infrastructure from the telco operators. With this transaction, MTN is effectively undoing that.

IHS has already announced the disposal of its Latin American (LatAm) business, with MTN very happy to see that go. MTN is only interested in the African tower portfolio, giving it control over much of its infrastructure footprint in Africa. IHS derives around 70% of its revenue from MTN.

This is a chunky deal, with cash of $2.2 billion changing hands. Cleverly, they are using $1.1 billion of cash on IHS’ balance sheet and $1.1 billion from MTN, funded by available liquidity and debt. MTN doesn’t need to do an equity raise for this deal.

The offer price to IHS shareholders is a premium of 9.7% to the 30-day volume-weighted average price (VWAP) of IHS. Once you adjust for the disposal of the LatAm assets, the African tower portfolio has an enterprise value of around $4.8 billion.

Will that be a high enough price to convince shareholders to say yes? Thanks to engagement with other shareholders, MTN has support for the transaction from holders of 40% of the voting shares. They need to achieve two-thirds approval, so there’s still a way to go.

At least they don’t need approval from MTN shareholders as well, as this is only a Category 2 transaction.

IHS generated interim profit of around $106 million for the six months to June 2025. The LatAm assets would be in those numbers I’m sure, so that’s not a pure indication of the earnings that MTN is acquiring. Still, annualising this number shows that they are paying a modest Price/Earnings multiple. This is exactly why MTN’s management sees this as an accretive deal.

Naturally, IHS will still continue to serve all customers, including MTN’s competitors. This is key to the economics of the towers themselves. And even if there was an economic way to squeeze competitors out, I’m quite sure that regulators would be sitting on MTN’s head immediately.


Sirius Real Estate had no trouble raising nearly R1.7 billion in just a few hours (JSE: SRE)

This is the power of the market for successful property funds

You’ll often hear people complain about the pain of being a listed company and how the juice just isn’t worth the squeeze. The property sector is an exception, with Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) capable of raising hundreds of millions (and sometimes a few billion) in the space of a morning.

Sirius Real Estate is just the latest example, with the company kicking things off on Tuesday by announcing a raise of approximately £77 million. This was structured as a non-pre-emptive placing of £75 million and a retail raise of £2 million.

They had no struggles in securing this capital, with an announcement just a few hours later confirming that they raised £77 million at a premium of 1% to the closing share price on 16 February 2026.

This means they raised nearly R1.7 billion without even offering a discount to investors. If you can believe it, they managed this at a premium of 1.4% to the 30-day volume-weighted average price (VWAP). Impressive!

To be fair, the company confirmed that they spoke to certain shareholders before the time, so they had lined up their institutional supporters. They will also allow new institutional shareholders onto the register as part of this raise. Another important point to raise is that certain directors and executives will participate in this raise to the extent of £100k. That’s small in the context of the total raise, but still a large number for individuals to be adding to the pot.

The management of the capital raise certainly contributed to the success, but the real story is the underlying strategy and the track record in deployment of capital. Sirius Real Estate is focused on the property market in the UK and Germany, with a particular tilt at the moment towards the defence theme that is playing out in Europe. This means industrial assets in strategically important locations that can attract defence tenants.

This raise will be used for two acquisition opportunities in Germany. The company is in exclusive negotiations and they expect to notarise the properties in the second quarter of 2026, subject to being happy with the due diligence. One of the properties is a long-term sale and leaseback in southwest Germany, while the other is a multi-tenanted site in northern Germany.

The total value for the two acquisitions is £113 million. In case you’re wondering about the gap between the £77 million equity raise and the value of the deals, remember that property funds make extensive use of debt to help achieve the right return on equity. Sirius Real Estate targets a loan-to-value ratio of 40% for the group, although they can obviously tweak that on a deal-by-deal basis if needed.

To give you a sense of pricing, the properties have a net initial yield of 7.6%. As always, Sirius Real Estate sees the potential for value-add strategies aimed at improving the returns over time. The company talks about a “window of opportunity” to do deals at this point in the cycle, which speaks directly to capital discipline.

Keen to learn more about the strategy, especially elements like the defence sector in Germany? Listen to this podcast from December 2025 with the CEO, CFO and CIO of Sirius Real Estate (and you can access the transcript here):


Nibbles:

  • Director dealings:
    • As mentioned above in the Sirius Real Estate (JSE: SRE) update, directors subscribed for around £100k (almost R2.2 million) in new shares. The CEO was good for half this amount, with the rest spread across a few executives.
    • PBT Holdings (JSE: PBT) announced that Spalding Investments, the B-BBEE investment vehicle that holds just over 26% in the company, sold some shares to directors of PBT Holdings and subsidiaries. Various directors bought shares worth almost R1.5 million in aggregate at R6.50 per share. This is small in the greater scheme of things, with Spalding’s stake reducing from 26.61% to 26.39%.
  • ASP Isotopes (JSE: ISO) announced that the headquarters of Quantum Leap Energy will be established in Austin, Texas. The choice of Texas makes sense based on the recent corporate trends in the US and the customer base that Quantum Leap Energy is looking to reach. In rather colourful language, the CEO of Quantum Leap Energy refers to Texas as the “epicentre of the American nuclear renaissance” – nice! Jokes aside, with all the power demand of data centres and the seemingly endless investment in that space, this feels like the right time to really get the hammer down on accessing the US market.
  • Tsogo Sun (JSE: TSG) confirmed that over the period since the authority was granted at the AGM in August 2025, they have repurchased 3.12% of shares that were in issue at that date. This has been done at an average price of R6.95 per share, which is slightly lower than the current price of R7.10.
  • Sibanye-Stillwater (JSE: SSW) released a Mineral Sources and Mineral Reserves declaration. A lot of work goes into these estimates each year. Aside from the obvious reduction from ongoing mining activities, there are other changes to the reserves based on geotechnical considerations. The one that sticks out is Kloof, where the economic viability of the operation was impacted by the removal of isolated blocks of ground. The majority of the Mineral Reserves were written down at that operation. On the plus side, the completion of feasibility studies at various mines helps to increase the reported mineral reserve.
  • Oando (JSE: OAO) is not a name that comes up very often, yet the company has announced that it plans to issue a whopping 4.4 billion shares in a rights issue. They’ve indicated a price of 50 naira each, which is roughly R0.60 per share. The current share price is only R0.18. I’m not sure where they are going to find over R2.6 billion in support for their rights offer, but I look forward to seeing the circular for this raise. The current market cap is R2.2 billion.
  • Barloworld (JSE: BAW) had a busy day. One of the final steps in the take-private dance for this group is the redemption of the listed preference shares. The first announcement on the day was that the redemption will be delayed, as approval hasn’t been received yet from the South African Reserve Bank (SARB). They clearly tempted fate here, as the approval came through later in the morning and Barloworld then released a finalisation announcement. The preference shares will be delisted on 3rd March.
  • Caxton and CTP Publishers and Printers (JSE: CAT) is another company that is waiting for approval from the SARB, although they need the approval to pay special dividends rather than to redeem shares. Caxton has had to push out this special dividend to an unknown date, as they are not sure when the approval will come through. You really have to wonder why we find ourselves in a situation where companies cannot do something as basic as pay a special dividend without waiting for approval from a regulatory body that seems to regularly miss the deadline.

PODCAST: No Ordinary Wednesday Ep121 | Budget Speech 2026: What’s at stake?

Listen to the podcast here:

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South Africa’s 2026 Budget arrives at a pivotal moment.

Debt is hovering near 78% of GDP. Growth is forecast at just 1.5%. Debt-servicing costs absorb around 5% of GDP. And yet, bond yields have fallen, sentiment has improved and S&P maintains a positive outlook.

Is this genuine fiscal stabilisation or simply a window of opportunity?

In the latest episode of No Ordinary Wednesday, Jeremy Maggs sits down with Investec’s Chief Economist Annabel Bishop and Treasury Economist Tertia Jacobs to unpack:

  • What it would take to secure a credit-rating upgrade
  • Whether debt has truly peaked
  • How meaningful the commodity revenue windfall is
  • The risk of further “stealth” tax pressure on households
  • Municipal reform and infrastructure momentum
  • What it would take to secure a credit-rating upgrade

Hosted by seasoned broadcaster, Jeremy Maggs, the No Ordinary Wednesday podcast unpacks the latest economic, business and political news in South Africa, with an all-star cast of investment and wealth managers, economists and financial planners from Investec. Listen in every second Wednesday for an in-depth look at what’s moving markets, shaping the economy, and changing the game for your wallet and your business.

Also on Apple Podcasts, Spotify and YouTube:

Ghost Bites (AECI | Stefanutti Stocks | Telkom)

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Volatile EBITDA margins at AECI, but earnings are up overall (JSE: AFE)

The choppy share price reflects the underlying economics

AECI’s share price has been on quite the journey. It’s up 25% in the past year, but this has been anything but a linear story. And as you can see from this chart, a major jump on Monday contributed strongly to the return over 12 months:

You’ll note that the starting date matters tremendously when we talk about the return over 12 months. If you had bought in June 2025 rather than February, you would now only be flat! As is so often the case, the volatility in the share price is echoing the underlying business.

For the year ended December 2025, even though there was pressure in revenue, the company expects Headline Earnings Per Share (HEPS) to be up by between 43% and 58%. This is a very encouraging update.

There are important discontinued operations here, as the company has been on a mission to exit non-core businesses and reduce debt. Disposal proceeds of R2.3 billion were put to good use in decreasing net debt. The gearing ratio is now just 5%, as net debt is only R460 million vs. R3.7 billion at the end of the prior period.

If you isolate continuing operations, then Earnings Per Share (EPS) from continuing operations is expected to increase by between 26% and 40%. EPS isn’t as useful a metric as HEPS because it doesn’t strip out many of the once-off distortions, but we have to work with what the company has given us in this trading update – and they haven’t given HEPS from continuing operations.

Group revenue is under pressure thanks to an 8% decline in AECI Mining’s revenue. There were lower sales volumes in both Mining Explosives and Mining Chemicals.

Despite this, AECI Mining’s EBITDA (Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation and Amortisation – in case you need a refresher) actually increased by more than 15%. Talk about a swing in margin!

They attribute the EBITDA move to better pricing and overall margin management, which I guess is a nice way of saying that they did their best to offset the pricing pressure. That’s a good outcome, especially in the context of operating challenges at the Modderfontein facilities.

At AECI Chemicals, we find the opposite situation. Revenue was up by 5%, yet EBITDA is expected to decline by 5% thanks to bad debts. Investors never want to see something like this. Although they collected a portion of the bad debt in the second half of the year, this is the kind of knock that the business didn’t need. In more positive news, they note a particularly strong performance in the Public Water area of the business.

In summary, the business has a much stronger balance sheet and has made plenty of progress in getting the core pieces in place. They’ve also demonstrated an ability to respond to a tough revenue period. With group HEPS expected to be between R10.22 and R11.31, the current share price of around R105 suggests a Price/Earnings multiple of around 9.8x at the midpoint of guidance. But we need to wait for HEPS from continuing operations to know for sure.

I’m curious to get your views on AECI, so please vote in the poll below:


Stefanutti Stocks has highlighted an improved order book (JSE: SSK)

The company is keeping investors informed every step of the way

Occasionally, a share price performance looks more like an adrenaline sport than anything else. Over the past five years, Stefanutti Stocks has returned nearly 1,700%! And no, there isn’t an extra zero in that number. See for yourself:

This is what can happen when a company narrowly escapes death. Shareholders had to be very patient along the way, which is a reminder of the different strategy that you need to be following if you play in shares like these.

Clear market communication has been a feature of this story. They are certainly continuing that trend, with the company announcing that the current order book has increased from R13.2 billion to R15.3 billion. Only R1.4 billion is for 2026, but they’ve got R8 billion lined up for 2027 and then the rest for 2028 and beyond.

To give you an idea of how these pipelines work, they have short-term potential awards of R12.5 billion and identified prospects of R144 billion.

The Standard Bank facility is down from R850 million to R250 million, which means that the interest charge is expected to drop by 70% for the year ending February 2027.

The share price closed 3.7% higher in response to this positive update.


Telkom’s momentum continues (JSE: TKG)

The performance in prepaid is particularly impressive

Telkom’s share price is up 66% in the past year. This made it a better choice over the past 12 months than any of the Big Tech names – yes, even Alphabet (the owner of Google).

This is because Telkom has been focusing on executing a turnaround that the market approves of, rather than a strategy of throwing gazillions at fancy new technology.

For the quarter ended December 2025, which is the third quarter of the financial year, group revenue was up 1.3%.

Data revenue (up 9.6%) is relevant here, now contributing 61.6% of group revenue. They give a further breakdown of that number, with mobile data up 12.9% and fibre-related data revenue up 8.9%. Openserve now passes 1.5 million homes and has a connectivity rate of 52.4%.

To remind you of how deflationary the products are, mobile data subscribers increased by 29.3% to 19.3 million. That’s much higher than the growth in data revenue.

The prepaid market has been highly competitive recently, with Telkom managing to grow revenue by 11.6%. Subscribers were up 5.8%, with Telkom noting a stable average revenue per user (ARPU) of R61. And no, I’m not sure how the ARPU can be consistent if there’s such a difference in growth between revenue and subscriber numbers.

In the postpaid (or contract) market, subscriber numbers were up 1.2% and ARPU increased to R187. Aside from the revenue visibility that it brings, you can see why these companies are keen to convert prepaid subscribers to contracts – the ARPU is more than three times higher.

These growth engines are dragged down by areas like BCX (down 9.3%) and other legacy offerings in the group, leading to only a modest increase in group revenue.

The overall revenue story is not exciting, but the increase in adjusted EBITDA of 8.4% is an inflation-beating performance. Adjusted EBITDA margin improved by 190 basis points to 29.1%. This was achieved through a decrease in adjusted costs for the quarter. Again, BCX remains a pressure point here, with EBITDA margin falling sharply by 460 basis points to 10.4%.

This means that the group is running ahead of the 25% – 27% EBITDA margin guidance, something that the market will be pleased about.

Further down the income statement, the group has highlighted a better credit performance that led to improved impairments of receivables.

The company might not have the wild capex profile of the data centre enthusiasts overseas, but they still invested R1.3 billion in capex in the third quarter. The focus of the capex strategy is on supporting the mobile and fibre businesses.

This is an increase in capex of 19% year-on-year, so capex intensity (capex as a percentage of revenue) increased by 170 basis points to 11.7%. This is something for investors to keep an eye on in terms of free cash flow, with the group having guided capex intensity of 12% to 15%.

The share price increased 6% on the day in response to this update. Telkom is trading on a Price/Earnings multiple of below 9x, a level that tends to get local value investors rather excited.


Nibbles:

  • Director dealings:
    • An associate of a director of Afrimat (JSE: AFT) sold shares worth around R5.4 million.
    • An associate of a director of Visual International (JSE: VIS) sold shares worth R149k. And no, there’s still no working website.
  • With RMB Holdings (JSE: RMH) having announced the AttBid offer, we are now seeing Atterbury Property Fund increase its stake by buying shares in the open market. The purchases have all taken place at R0.47 per share. Atterbury Property Fund now has a 32.01% stake in RMB Holdings.
  • African Rainbow Minerals (JSE: ARI) announced that Dr Patrice Motsepe is stepping down as Executive Chairman. This is based on changes to the JSE Listings Requirements that no longer allow an executive chair. Dr Motsepe will be the non-executive Chairman going forwards, which means that he will technically no longer be an employee of the company that he founded. Along with this change, the company announced Jacques van der Bijl as the new COO of the group.
  • The leadership changes at Copper 360 (JSE: CPR) continue. Company secretary Phillip Venter Attorneys has resigned from that role based on a “strategic realignment of the firm’s service offerings” – this is most unfortunate timing for such a realignment, given the other major recent changes at Copper 360. A replacement hasn’t been announced yet.
  • In yet another example of how there’s never a dull moment at Trustco (JSE: TTO), the company’s general meeting (the one that was requisitioned at the request of Riskowitz Value Fund) didn’t go ahead after the chairman of the board ruled that the notice convening the meeting was defective. Shareholders were given a chance to condone the defective notice, but this vote failed. According to Trustco’s board, based on the proxies received and the shareholders present at the meeting, the resolutions would’ve failed anyway as there wasn’t a majority willing to vote in favour of them. And so the wheels turn.
  • Putprop (JSE: PPR) announced the appointment of Janys Ann Finn as an independent non-executive director. For such a small fund, it’s impressive to have attracted a director to the board who is the ex-CFO of Redefine Properties (JSE: RDF) and other smaller REITs.

Ghost Bites (Cell C | Ethos Capital | Mustek | KAP)

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Cell C releases its maiden interim results as a listed company (JSE: CCD)

The MVNO business remains a key growth engine

Cell C has released results for the six months to November 2025. The significance is that these are the first results since the company listed at the end of 2025. If you want to understand more about the group strategy, you should check out this podcast I recorded with CEO Jorge Mendes in December.

Unlike the other big names in the telco space, Cell C isn’t searching for growth in the rest of Africa – at least not at this stage. MTN (JSE: MTN) and Vodacom (JSE: VOD) have been on an exceptional run, but much of it is thanks to improved macro factors in Africa that are outside of their control. And we don’t have to go far back in the history books to see how rapidly that macro situation can deteriorate.

Cell C is therefore a much simpler group from a macro perspective, but they have also missed out on the surge in Africa. Risk vs. reward is on full display here.

The key differentiator at Cell C is the Mobile Virtual Network Operator (MVNO) business that has leading market share in this space. This is the technology through which companies like Capitec (JSE: CPI) offer cellphone-related services (e.g. Capitec Connect). There are many companies with large distribution networks that see the opportunity for value-added services as a way to boost margins and grow share of wallet from existing customers.

Growth in the Wholesale business of 22.5% is a very useful growth engine, but Cell C still derives the majority of its revenue from “traditional” services like Prepaid and Postpaid (contract) revenue. For context, Wholesale generated R840 million in revenue in this period vs. R3.9 billion across Prepaid and Postpaid combined.

Prepaid has been a competitive bloodbath recently, so 1.6% net revenue growth to R2.7 billion is pretty good. The number of subscribers increased by over 1 million. Average revenue per user (ARPU) fell by 8.4% to R71, primarily due to the 14% effective reduction in data tariffs. The deflationary nature of the service offering is one of the biggest challenges for the telco companies.

Postpaid revenue has increased by 2.3% to R1.2 billion, with that growth expected to improve as they integrate the Comm Equipment Company (CEC) business. They are deliberately focusing on higher quality Postpaid customers that offer a larger ARPU, with a 4.4% improvement in that metric to R240.

A number of other revenue streams came under pressure due to the regulated reduction in mobile termination rates. On the plus side, the Enterprise business achieved double-digit growth, albeit off a small base. Overall, the Other segment experienced a drop in revenue of 11% to R886 million.

Absolutely nobody talks about the Other segment, yet it generates more revenue than Wholesale! This won’t be the case for much longer, though.

Once you add it all together, you find revenue growth of just 1.8% to R6.7 billion, showing you how hard it is to drive meaningful growth in South Africa (and why competitors went off to Africa in search of riches).

There are plenty of once-off items in the expense base, so the company has reported adjusted EBITDA to give a better indication of the underlying performance. This important metric actually dipped by 1.1% to R917 million, with significant expense pressures on lines like personnel, IT and marketing.

Profitability will need to be on a more appealing trajectory going forwards, something that isn’t easy to do when revenue growth is in the low single digits.

The company’s growth story is being supported by a balance sheet that is much cleaner than pre-IPO when it was intertwined with Blu Label (JSE: BLU). The net debt to EBITDA ratio of 0.6x is healthy. Cell C follows a capex-light model with capex investment of R895 million in this period, so that helps with keeping the balance sheet in a healthy range.

Looking ahead to the second half of the year, they expect an acceleration in Prepaid and Postpaid revenue, while the Wholesale segment is expected to grow by more than 20%. The pressure in Other revenue streams is expected to continue, while Enterprise (within the Other bucket) is expected to have another strong period.

And in case you’re wondering why I didn’t mention Headline Earnings Per Share (HEPS), here’s why: thanks to the once-offs in the numbers that even HEPS doesn’t make allowances for, they’ve reported HEPS of R205.84. The share price is R29, so that would put Cell C on a Price/Earnings multiple of 0.07x (because you would have to annualise the interim numbers). This is clearly not “correct” at all as an indication of value.

The results will become easier to interpret and understand over time as these once-offs are worked out of the system.


Ethos Capital is repurchasing 41.5% of its shares (JSE: EPE)

This is from the proceeds of the Optasia (JSE: OPA) sell-down

Ethos Capital has been talking for ages about unlocking value and returning capital to shareholders. These things do take time, especially when the portfolio consists of multiple underlying investments.

When Optasia listed towards the end of last year (check out this podcast with Optasia CEO Salvador Anglada to learn more), it gave Ethos Capital an opportunity to monetise a chunk of its stake. These proceeds can now be used to repurchase shares from investors.

How big is this repurchase? Well, Ethos Capital is looking to repurchase 41.5% of its shares in issue. In other words, they are returning nearly half of the value of the company to shareholders!

And when I say value, what I really mean is the net asset value (NAV), not the market value. You see, the NAV per share is R8.10, whereas the current market price is R7.52. The total value of the planned repurchase is R860 million, which works out to 44.6% of the market cap due to the share price trading at a discount to NAV per share.

It’s worth noting that the NAV has increased since the last reported estimate of R7.57 that was announced in December. This is because of the positive movement in the Optasia share price.

The default election for shareholders is to accept the repurchase offer. Any shareholders who don’t want to accept it must inform their broker by Friday, 6th March.


Mustek’s profitability looks much better (JSE: MST)

HEPS has almost quadrupled

Mustek’s profits are jumping around like an excited Jack Russell at the moment. For the six months to December 2025, the IT group expects HEPS to increase by between 250% and 270%. It’s hard to process percentage movements that are this high, so it’s easier to think in absolutes: HEPS will be between 82.13 cents and 86.83 cents vs. 23.47 cents in the comparable period.

Apart from a drop in finance costs, and a helpful forex situation as the rand has strengthened, they have also attributed this performance to cost control and equity-accounted investments. We will have to wait for 25 February to get all the details.

And in case you’re wondering, the share price hasn’t had a chance to react to this yet. Although it closed 4.5% higher on the day, that move happened in the morning and this announcement came out in the late afternoon.


Could the worst finally be behind them at KAP? (JSE: KAP)

After such a long period of disappointment, there’s plenty of positive momentum here

KAP is one of those companies that just couldn’t catch a break for the longest time. But the winds of change may well be blowing, as HEPS for the six months to December 2025 is expected to be between 28% and 35% higher.

This percentage growth tells us that interim HEPS will be between 22.0 cents and 23.2 cents. Annualising the results at KAP feels extremely brave, but it’s worth noting that the share price is R2.33 and hence the Price/Earnings multiple on an annualised basis would be roughly 5x. The market still has plenty of scars from KAP, with the valuation reflecting this track record.

The best segmental stories appear to be PG Bison (thanks to higher production and sales volumes) and Feltex (domestic new vehicle assembly volumes are up). They’ve also enjoyed lower finance costs.

Safripol remains the biggest headache, with the polymers sector in a cyclical low that is so stubborn it would make the platinum sector blush.

Detailed results are expected on 26 February.

With the valuation at such modest levels, what is your expectation of the share price trajectory this year?


Nibbles:

  • Director dealings:
    • After a substantial recent sale by the founders of WeBuyCars (JSE: WBC) gave bears something to shout about, we’ve seen an encouraging purchase of shares in the company by other directors. The Chairperson has bought R10 million in shares and the CFO has bought R2.5 million in shares.
    • The CFO of Mantengu (JSE: MTU) has bought another R6.3k worth of shares.
  • Mahube Infrastructure (JSE: MHB) released a firm intention announcement on 9 December 2025 in relation to the approach by Sustent Holdings. They should’ve released a circular to shareholders within 20 business days, but this didn’t happen. Delays are not uncommon for deals announced in the festive season. An extension has been granted by the Takeover Regulation Panel (TRP) out to 9 March 2026. Let’s see if they can meet that deadline.
  • Labat Africa (JSE: LAB) announced that Financial Director David O’Neill has retired with immediate effect due to reasons of ill health. He is 78 years old.

The problem with obedience

How blind obedience shaped one of history’s most unsettling experiments, and why its lessons matter more than ever in the age of AI

In August of 1961, Stanley Milgram, a psychologist at Yale University, set out to test how far ordinary people would go when instructed by an authority figure to act against their own conscience. This was a particularly important experiment at the time: three months earlier, the televised trial of Nazi war criminal Adolf Eichmann had started in Jerusalem. In later writings, Milgram said that he designed his experiment because he was fascinated by Eichmann’s claim (similar to the claims made by other members of the Nazi party) that he was “simply following orders”.

There were 40 participants in the original experiment, who were all kept in the dark about its true nature. Instead, they were told that they were assisting in a study on memory and learning. Their task as the “educator” in the experiment was to teach an unseen adult “learner” a list of word pairs, and then the learner had to repeat the word pairs that they could remember. When a learner gave a wrong answer, the educator was expected to administer an electric shock to the learner. With each mistake, the voltage increased, from 15 volts all the way up to 450, levels clearly marked from “Slight Shock” to “Danger: Severe Shock.” Unbeknownst to the educator, the shocks were not real. Had they been real, however, the highest setting could have been fatal.

Before the experiment began, Milgram asked fourteen senior psychology students to predict the outcome. They estimated that perhaps one or two people out of a hundred would deliver the maximum voltage. His colleagues in the psychology department agreed with this hypothesis. The expectation was that conscience would prevail, and that participants would simply refuse to administer shocks above a certain level.

But surprisingly, that wasn’t the outcome of the experiment at all. 

The lab coat and the switch

Each session involved three people: the experimenter, dressed in a lab coat; the volunteer educator, who believed they were assisting the experimenter; and the learner, who was in fact an actor working with the research team.

The learner was introduced to the educator at the beginning of the session and then strapped into what appeared to be an electric chair. Before the test began, the educator received a sample shock to make the setup believable. The educator was then moved into an adjacent room where they could not see the learner, but they could hear him. They started reading out the word pairs so that the learner could memorise them and recite them back. When answers were wrong, the educator pressed a switch and the learner “reacted” to the fake shock they received. As the voltage climbed with each wrong answer, the learner protested more and more loudly. He pleaded and cried. He mentioned a heart condition. And then, after the highest level of shock was administered, he fell ominously silent.

Most of the learner’s cries were actually prerecorded. But of course the educators didn’t know that. They were led to believe that they were inflicting real pain on a real human being. When participants hesitated to administer shocks, the experimenter (who was also in the room) responded with a pre-planned series of carefully worded, escalating prods:

“Please continue.”

“The experiment requires that you continue.”

“It is absolutely essential that you continue.”

“You have no other choice; you must go on.”

If, after all four prompts, a participant still refused to administer a shock, the session ended. Otherwise, it continued until the maximum voltage had been administered three times. Many participants showed visible distress during the process. They sweated, trembled, and stuttered as they attempted to teach the word pairs to the learner. Some dug their fingernails into their skin. 14 of the 40 laughed nervously. Every participant paused at least once to question what they were doing, but most continued after a verbal prod from the man in the lab coat. 

Milgram’s hypothesis had been that very few participants would be willing to follow the command to keep administering higher voltage shocks. In reality, every participant in the experiment, despite their obvious discomfort, continued to at least 300 volts. 65% of participants made it all the way past the learner’s desperate cries about his heart condition and still went up to the “fatal” 450 volts.

Those few who refused to go further did not storm out or demand that the study be stopped. They simply stopped pressing the switch. They did not stop to check on the learner on their way out or enquire about his condition. They simply left. 

Not a German problem

Before the experiment began, Milgram believed that he already knew what he was testing for. He suspected that the obedience displayed by Nazi perpetrators during the Holocaust reflected something culturally specific, perhaps a distinctly German disposition toward authority. American participants, he assumed, would serve as a kind of moral control group. Later, he planned to replicate the study in Germany, expecting far higher levels of compliance there. The results of his experiment made that second phase unnecessary.

The obedience Milgram observed wasn’t uniquely German. It turned out to be universal. When the experiment was later repeated in countries across the world, the pattern held. Different languages, cultures, and political histories, yet the same unsettling outcome.

Reflecting on his findings, Milgram wrote that the most disturbing discovery was not cruelty or hatred, but willingness: the readiness of ordinary adults to go to extreme lengths when instructed by an authority figure. He knew that these people weren’t acting out of malice – he could see that in the way that they were unsettled and upset by their actions. They were simply doing what they believed their role required of them, and in so doing, they became participants in a deeply destructive process.

To explain this, Milgram proposed what he called the agentic state. In this state, individuals no longer see themselves as autonomous moral actors. Instead, they begin to view themselves as instruments carrying out the wishes of someone else. Responsibility shifts upward and rests with the authority. Once that psychological handover occurs, obedience becomes easier, doubt becomes easier to squash, and personal conscience fades into the background.

Obedient machines

Human beings are having a lot of important conversations about artificial intelligence at the moment, and many of those conversations follow a familiar cadence: alarm, outrage, and a deep unease about where this technology is taking us. Headlines regularly spotlight the harms of AI models churning out fake or explicit content, bots trained on stolen images or copyrighted works, and automated systems amplifying misinformation with unprecedented reach. In one widely reported case, users of the AI chatbot Grok were able to generate sexually explicit deepfake images of women and children without their consent – hundreds of them in mere hours – prompting global backlash and regulatory scrutiny across Europe, Asia, and the Americas.

These incidents feel, to many, like evidence that AI has become a rogue force; something that needs to be restrained, feared, or outright banned. But beneath the surface of each controversy lies the thorny truth: AI does not choose to harm. It follows commands – the prompts we give it, the frameworks we build, the incentives we embed. In that sense, when an AI spits out harmful deepfakes or spin-doctor political content, it is not “choosing evil” any more than the educator in Milgram’s lab coat was choosing cruelty. It is responding to human input, just as Milgram’s subjects responded to his authority.

If AI misuse feels so threatening, it’s because the scale and speed at which AI operates magnify the consequences of bad orders. A malicious prompt can generate thousands of damaging images in an hour. A misleading text snippet can be amplified across social platforms before fact-checkers have a chance to blink. Governments, watchdogs, and civil society groups are scrambling to catch up, drafting laws and safety guidelines designed to curb these harms and protect individuals and communities.

But there is a deeper philosophical question here, one that echoes the lessons of Milgram’s research: is the technology itself the problem, or the human willingness to misuse it?

What if we could encode ethical constraints into the code in a way that prevents harmful obedience altogether? What if the “obedient agentic state” (the prediscussed tendency to follow orders without moral resistance) could be designed out of our machines? Some scholars argue that defining ethical AI isn’t just about regulation or supervision, but about embedding moral reasoning and accountability into the systems themselves. The field of machine ethics explores whether AI can be given frameworks that go beyond blind rule-following, allowing it to evaluate the impact of a request rather than merely executing it.

That prospect raises difficult but important questions. If we could design AI that refuses harmful instructions, such as the instruction to generate content that violates privacy, dignity, or consent, could such systems ultimately behave more ethically than the average human? In theory, yes. An AI’s actions could be governed not by expediency or obedience to authority, but by consistent ethical principles rigorously tested against edge cases humans frequently misjudge. In practice, this would require designers to prioritise ethics over profit, and legislators to enforce accountability with teeth – no small task, given how quickly the technology evolves.

In this light, the ethical promise of AI isn’t about fearing its autonomy. It’s about confronting our own. After all, we are the ones issuing the orders. And if we want AI to reflect our highest ideals – our respect for each other’s rights, dignity, and wellbeing – then the first step is to recognise that technology mirrors human intent, for better or worse.

About the author: Dominique Olivier

Dominique Olivier is the founder of human.writer, where she uses her love of storytelling and ideation to help brands solve problems.

She is a weekly columnist in Ghost Mail and collaborates with The Finance Ghost on Ghost Mail Weekender, a Sunday publication designed to help you be more interesting. She now also writes a regular column for Daily Maverick.

Dominique can be reached on LinkedIn here.

Ghost Bites (AB InBev | Altron | Brimstone – Sea Harvest | British American Tobacco | South32 | Tongaat Hulett)

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AB InBev confirms that people are drinking less beer (JSE: ANH)

The switch to non-alcoholic beer isn’t making up for it

One of the themes in the market over the past couple of years has been the difficulties facing the alcohol giants.

The Gen Zs aren’t so keen to get messy drunk and fall all over the place. The proliferation of smartphones means that this behaviour becomes a reputational legacy on the internet, rather than an isolated incident that you laugh about with your mates down the line.

And of course, there’s much more focus on health these days than in years gone by. It’s not called a “beer boep” for nothing. A 500ml beer has roughly the same energy content as a Magnum ice cream. I know this because when I figured it out, I dropped my consumption of beer substantially and switched to alternatives like gin and sugar-free tonic. And more regular Magnums.

There’s definitely still a place for beer in global culture, but the drop in consumption is clear. People are having one or perhaps two beers, instead of several in a row. This is why AB InBev’s volumes fell 2.3% in FY25. Beer volumes were down 2.6% and non-beer volumes fell 0.4%. For the fourth quarter, beer volumes were down 1.9% and non-beer volumes increased by 0.6%, so at least they finished the year with some momentum.

The only way to grow is therefore through price increases. Revenue per hl grew 4.4% in FY25 and 4.0% in the fourth quarter. Due to the offsetting impact of lower volumes, this means that total revenue was up 2.0% in FY25 and 2.5% in the fourth quarter (reported in US dollars).

This doesn’t exactly sound like a share price that should be heading to the moon, does it?

Despite this, the market is paying a P/E of 18x and has ramped the share price up by 29% over 12 months. The timing does make a difference here, as the chart is very choppy. Whichever way you cut it, the market is bullish and the stock is trading at close to 52-week highs.

Is earnings growth the source of the excitement? With normalised EBITDA margin actually contracting by 10 basis points in the fourth quarter to 35.2%, it doesn’t seem that way. For FY25, margin expanded by 101 basis points to 35.8%.

By the time we reach the bottom of the income statement, we see growth in underlying earnings per share of 6.0% in FY25, and 7.5% in the fourth quarter. HEPS was much stronger due to the various adjustments, showing growth of 19% for FY25.

Earnings are still climbing, but the underlying market is washing away from them. I’ve held the view for a while that a company like this is on the same trajectory as British American Tobacco (JSE: BTI), albeit earlier on that road. And unlike the tobacco products, only a small percentage of people are in the unfortunate position where they are addicted or even semi-addicted to AB InBev’s products. Even then, they can switch to cheaper alcohol alternatives. If the shift away from beer accelerates, I think the key difference between AB InBev and British American Tobacco is that the former doesn’t have a long tail of customers who just can’t kick the habit.

Oh yes, and there’s debt. A lot of debt. Net debt to EBITDA sits at 2.87x, only slightly better than 2.89x in December 2024.

For now, the company believes they can keep growing. EBITDA is expected to grow by between 4% and 8% in 2026. Is that really enough to justify this valuation?

What do you think the growth will be? Vote in the poll below:

And before we move off this topic, shareholders in SAB Zenzele Kabili (JSE: SZK) should take note of these AB InBev results. That B-BBEE investment structure is entirely dependent on dividends flowing through from the alcohol giant. That’s not a position I would want to be in.


Altron’s earnings have jumped (JSE: AEL)

We will have to be patient for the details though

Altron has released a trading statement for the year ending 28 February 2026. The news is positive, with continuing operations expected to enjoy at least a 30% increase in HEPS to 231 cents (or more). Total operations will be at least 50% higher, coming in at 201 cents.

The sale of Altron Nexus went through in 2025, so that’s making a difference to the continuing vs. total operations.

We will need to wait for the pre-close investor call scheduled for 24 February to get further details. In the meantime, the market was happy to get on the bid and move the share price 8% higher by the close.


Sea Harvest boosts earnings at Brimstone (JSE: SHG | JSE: BRT)

The trading statement is based on HEPS, but that isn’t the metric that the market cares about

I hope that we will one day see Brimstone switching from HEPS to net asset value (NAV) per share as the basis for its trading statements. The market doesn’t really care about HEPS in investment holding companies, as the metric does a poor job of recognising the different types of investments held in the group.

There’s a big difference between how you account for subsidiaries and associates vs. portfolio investments. NAV per share captures this properly. HEPS does not.

Nevertheless, the company always uses HEPS. The trading statement doesn’t give any details on NAV per share, so we have to wait for results in March to get a view on that.

In the meantime, we know that the stronger performance at Sea Harvest (JSE: SHG) has driven stronger earnings at Brimstone. We also know that finance costs are lower, so that’s helpful. Along with tax adjustments as well, this adds up to an increase in HEPS of between 88% and 98%!

The share price is up just 3% over 12 months. If that isn’t proof that the market ignores HEPS at this company, then I don’t know what is.


It’s a game of inches at British American Tobacco (JSE: BTI)

Every small change to the growth rate is important

British American Tobacco is a company that is all about small percentage movements. For example, revenue dipped by 1% in the year ended December 2025 due to currency headwinds, but increased 2.1% on a constant currency basis. Adjusted profit from operations increased by 2.3%, while operating margin was flat vs. FY24. Dividend growth was 2%.

You get the idea. This is what happens when the core product is essentially in terminal decline, much like the unfortunate customers who can’t (or won’t) stop smoking.

But the New Categories range is designed to address this, with double-digit revenue growth in the second half of the year. The so-called “smokeless products” are now 18.2% of group revenue, up 70 basis points vs. FY24.

The most volatile number in these results is the Canadian settlement provision. Thanks to adjustments to that number, reported profit actually jumped by 265%. This is why the company gives us the adjusted profit growth of 2.3%, as the larger number is clearly not a reflection of the operating performance.

The company is essentially on a treadmill, trying to replace the cigarette revenue and profits with the more palatable New Categories that the ESG consultants have been all over for years. For investors, I’ve always felt that this is the classic case of picking up pennies in front of a steamroller. If it goes well, you get growth of a couple of percentage points. If something goes wrong from a regulatory perspective or otherwise, earnings can drop sharply. That’s not a risk/reward trade-off that I have much love for.

The share price is up 32% over 12 months though, so my approach means I’ve missed out on these gains. The current P/E is 35x, but it was pointed out to me by a reader that there are important normalisation adjustments in the trailing twelve months view that are worth taking into account. Still, British American Tobacco does face numerous business risks that can have a significant impact on earnings, so it’s an indication of what can happen.

It really is one of the most polarising stocks on the market. There are those that love it and those that hate it!


Earnings are up at South32 (JSE: S32)

The volatility in underlying commodity performance shows why many investors prefer diversified groups

In mining, I often write about how management teams can only be measured based on the performance that is within their control. After all, none of them can control international commodity prices. This should apply on the way down and on the way up, although most mining execs seem to be quite happy to become wealthy when commodity prices have been favourable. It’s only on the way down that they argue that production is the right metric…

Justifiable cynicism aside, I do like this chart from South32 in their results for the six months to December. It does a good job of separating the factors into what they can and can’t control. It also happens to be a waterfall chart, something I always enjoyed putting together in my advisory days:

Right, let me remove my finance geek hat and give you the overview of how things went in this period for South32.

Revenue from continuing operations dipped by 3%, so that’s not a fantastic start. Commodity price pressure came through in alumina and manganese. There were some positive offsets here, like aluminium, copper and zinc, but it wasn’t enough to put revenue in the green.

Despite this, underlying EBITDA increased by 9%. Aside from cost benefits, a major driver of this outcome was the restart of operations at Australia Manganese. This helped offset the considerable pain in areas like alumina, where EBITDA more than halved thanks to a 27% decrease in the average price of alumina.

Copper, the talk of the town, saw underlying EBITDA more than double. In the commodities game, the underlying volatility in each commodity can be breathtaking.

One of the challenges heading into the second half of the year is that Mozal Aluminium is scheduled to transition to care and maintenance in March. This is because they couldn’t secure an electricity supply that allows them to operate profitably. Smelters require an extraordinary amount of energy.

This was a period of heavy investment for the group, with significant capital expenditure at Hermosa, along with the usual investment requirements in the group. This is why there was a cash outflow from operations of $183 million, worse than the outflow of $116 million in the comparable period. This is only part of the story though, with the group still able to fund dividends and share buybacks.

Looking ahead, guidance for FY26 and FY27 is unchanged at all operations except for Brazil Aluminium, where the smelter’s operator has revised production guidance lower.

The share price is up 20% over 12 months. The real story is the 90-day move though, up a meaty 42%!


The show is over at Tongaat Hulett (JSE: TON)

The business rescue plan has fallen through and the company is headed for liquidation

After a mammoth effort to save Tongaat Hulett (literally a household name in South Africa), I’m afraid that it’s all come to nothing. The transaction with Robert Gumede’s Vision consortium has failed due to conditions precedent not being met in time. With the acquirer not being willing to grant an extension to the timelines, the plan is no longer capable of implementation.

This means that the business rescue practitioners have filed an application in court for the provisional liquidation of the company. This is a huge blow to stakeholders in the industry, particularly as there was hope that the business would be rescued in some form.

With thousands of jobs on the line throughout the value chain, will someone come through with a last-ditch plan to save the company?


Nibbles:

  • Director dealings:
    • Sam Sithole of Value Capital Partners (VCP) sits on the board of Tiger Brands (JSE: TBS), so any sales or purchases of shares by VCP come through as director dealings. The numbers certainly aren’t what you’ll be accustomed to seeing in this section, as VCP is an institutional-level investor. VCP has sold shares worth R748 million, or roughly 32.5% of the original number of shares they acquired. I can’t blame them for taking some profit off the table here – the share price has had an incredible run!
    • An associate of a director of Visual International (JSE: VIS) sold shares worth R156k. And no, the website still doesn’t work.
    • The Mantengu (JSE: MTU) share price has unfortunately been dropping sharply in value recently. The latest announcement is that the CFO has bought R5.9k worth of shares. For a purchase to send a strongly positive message to the market, I think it might need a couple more zeroes on the end.
  • As a sign of the far more positive times in the PGM sector, Valterra Platinum (JSE: VAL) has established a R10 billion Domestic Medium Term Note (DMTN) Programme. It’s always good to see this type of thing happening. The bond market has some fascinating dynamics, as expanded on by Ian Norden (CEO of Intengo Market) in this recent podcast.
  • Labat Africa (JSE: LAB) has announced a share repurchase programme for up to 20% of shares in issue. The words “up to” are important here, as time will tell how many shares they actually repurchase in the planned window of 16 February to 31 May. The programme has been introduced as the board believes that the shares are undervalued. With a NAV per share of 23 cents and a share price of 8 cents (up a meaty 60% in response to this news), there’s certainly a huge discount to NAV.
  • In case anyone was wondering about the appointment of the Life Healthcare (JSE: LHC) CEO to the board of Nedbank (JSE: NED) as a non-executive director, we now have confirmation from Life Healthcare that they fully assessed conflicts of interest and the CEO’s ability to discharge his duties. I’m not sure how a CEO has time to take on another board role (especially of a systemically important bank), but here we are.
  • PSG Financial Services (JSE: KST) announced that chairperson Willem Theron will be retiring at the AGM. After founding the company in 1998 and switching from CEO to chairperson in 2013, he’s certainly earned his retirement. Lizé Lambrechts, currently an independent non-executive director, has been nominated as the next chairperson. Lambrechts has extensive industry experience that includes executive roles at Sanlam (JSE: SLM) and Santam (JSE: SNT).

Ghost Bites (Aspen | Capitec | City Lodge | Nampak | Pan African Resources | Trustco)

0

Aspen wants you to treat the interim period as “transitional” (JSE: APN)

There’s a ~R700 million restructuring cost that ruined these numbers

If you’ve been following Aspen, then you’ll know that they suffered a hideous knock to the share price last year based on a manufacturing contract dispute related to mRNA. Aspen works with global pharmaceutical giants as a drug manufacturing and distribution group, so it hurts the business severely when a large contract with one of those pharma groups goes wrong.

To make the latest interim results even tougher, Aspen had a much stronger base in the first half of last year vs. the second half. H1’25 saw EBITDA of R5.8 billion vs. R3.8 billion in H2’25 because of the timing of the dispute.

The dispute was settled with a payment to Aspen of around R0.5 billion that has been recognised in the six months to December 2025 (H1’26). But compared to the EBITDA of R1.5 billion in the base period from that contract, it’s a year-on-year comparison that was always going to look awful. This is why they want you to see it as a “transitional” period rather than an indication of how the core business is doing.

Commercial Pharmaceuticals, the segment that wasn’t hurt by this contract, grew revenue by 4% and achieved double-digit normalised EBITDA growth (in constant exchange rates). Mounjaro demand in South Africa is a highlight, with profits on the way up in China as well. Reported performance will be impacted by the strength of the rand, though.

The Manufacturing segment (the problem child) reported a “positive EBITDA” that was “aided” by the insurance proceeds. They are “reshaping” their facilities, with cost benefits coming in the second half of 2026 and fully in 2027. Read into that what you will.

Major challenges aside, Aspen generated free cash flow in excess of R1.7 billion in this period and reduced net debt from R31.2 billion as at June 2025 to R28.6 billion as at December 2025. The sale of Aspen APAC for around R26.5 billion will do wonders for the balance sheet when that deal goes through. They hope to complete it by the end of May 2026.

HEPS as reported for the period will be down by between -38% and -33%. Normalised HEPS will drop by between -24% and -19%. It’s a good reminder of just how painful that loss of contract really was.

Guidance for the full year is unchanged. Among other things, this is based on normalised EBITDA in the problematic Manufacturing segment being in line with FY25 in constant currency, so you can see the impact of a much easier base period in the second half of the year.


Capitec has achieved another strong period of growth (JSE: CPI)

There are so many levers that they can pull on this journey

One of the underappreciated elements of the Capitec story is that the road to their current market position has been paved with relatively basic services and a focused offering. They’ve executed a strategy based on doing fewer things to a high standard vs. many things to an average standard. This is key to the success of any disruptor. It’s also a lesson that I’ve tried to apply in my own business!

This isn’t to say that they aren’t introducing additional services and expanding the offering over time. For example, Business Banking is an exciting growth engine that Capitec is putting plenty of energy into. I’ve seen this myself through working with that team on The Finance Ghost plugged in with Capitec – a podcast series that has been running for several months. I have a lot of off-air discussions with the guests and I can tell you that the feelings they have towards the bank are authentic. Capitec is resonating with business clients in the same way that they’ve resonated with Personal Banking clients.

When you are the best growth story in your industry, you can afford to keep piling on the pressure and making life even harder for competitors. This is no different to what Shoprite (JSE: SHP) is doing in retail, for example. Capitec is leveraging its efficient business model to keep fees as low as possible, which means they get to enjoy economies of scale and higher volumes. And so the flywheel keeps spinning.

Once you take into account the value-added services opportunity into this vast and growing client base, you’ll see the potential to drive return on equity through offerings like Capitec Connect (which gets the Cell C (JSE: CCD) fans excited – check out this podcast I did with Cell C CEO Jorge Mendes to learn more). Another very important angle is insurance, including in key South African focus areas like funeral cover.

In case you’re wondering whether all this growth has impacted the underlying quality of the book, here’s your answer: Capitec has actually seen improvements in the loan book, and the provision for expected credit loss coverage ratio has moved in line with this improvement.

The end result? An expectation for HEPS to increase by between 20% and 25% for the year ending February 2026. This is why the market is happily paying a P/E multiple of 34x for these shares.


Forex movements have offset earnings growth at City Lodge (JSE: CLH)

The underlying hotels are performing well though

If someone stopped you in the street and asked you about the risks at City Lodge, I doubt that forex volatility would’ve been top of mind. The operations in Botswana, Namibia and Mozambique represent roughly 5% of the group, so their African exposure is minimal. If you go back and look at the financials for the year ended June 2025, you’ll see that unrealised movements on foreign exchange aren’t exactly enormous. In that period for example, the movement was just R7.9 million vs. profit before tax of R311 million.

I was therefore surprised (and not in a good way) to see that City Lodge’s HEPS for the six months to December 2025 is expected to be between -4% lower and 2% higher than the comparable period. Adjusted HEPS, which reverses out the forex, will increase by between 29% and 36%.

I know we’ve seen significant rand volatility, but this is a huge difference. It seems as though we now need to treat City Lodge as a company with significant currency exposure!

I look forward to getting the full details here when the company releases results on 19 February.


A mixed first quarter for Nampak (JSE: NPK)

It looks good overall, but there’s one segmental headache to worry about

The largest segment at Nampak is Beverage SA, which generated EBITDA of R907 million in the year ended September 2025 vs. R360 million at Beverage Angola and R310 million at Diversified SA. This is important context for the business update for the first quarter of FY26 (i.e. for the three months to December 2025) that was provided at Nampak’s AGM.

In this update, Nampak confirmed that the beverage operations are doing well. Beverage South Africa is performing in line with expectations and Beverage Angola is actually ahead of expectations on volumes, revenue and profitability.

The same cannot be said for the Diversified SA segment, which has lost business for various reasons ranging from customer changes to imported alternatives. They also flag the timing of fish canning and the “fruit crop dynamics” in the first quarter.

This is a mixed bag, but at least the business is doing well across the biggest segments. This type of update is useful to keep the market informed, even if it sometimes creates more questions than answers!


How does a six-fold increase in earnings at Pan African Resources grab you? (JSE: PAN)

This is what happens when production increases at exactly the right time

We’ve seen a number of global gold miners coming through with updates about earnings doubling or even tripling. But you won’t see too many with an increase like this…

My pick in this sector last year was Pan African Resources, as they had the lovely combination of (1) increasing production, (2) a hedge rolling off the books and (3) exposure to an increasing gold price.

I certainly wasn’t disappointed. The share price is up 245% in the past year. That’ll do.

In terms of earnings for the six months to December 2025, the percentage move is much crazier than what we’ve seen in the share price. HEPS (in US dollars) is expected to jump by between 507% and 517%. Yes, that’s a six-fold increase in HEPS, from 1.20 US cents per share to between 7.28 US cents and 7.40 US cents per share. Incredible.

This is what happens when revenue increases by 157.3% in a company that has substantial fixed costs and thus operating leverage. The combination of a 61.6% increase in the average gold price and 51.5% in the amount of gold produced was responsible for this revenue growth.

And here’s the best part: thanks to the MTR expansion project and the Tennant Mines acquisition, group production is expected to increase even further during the second half of the year ending June 2026.

I’m long and I plan to stay that way.


Trustco’s Meya Mining secures a $25 million facility with Ecobank (JSE: TTO)

The bank clearly sees a future in diamond production

At a time when Anglo American (JSE: AGL) is reporting losses in De Beers and looking for a buyer for that asset, you wouldn’t expect there to be much bullishness around mined diamonds.

Nevertheless, Trustco has announced that Meya Mining (in which Trustco has an indirect equity interest) has secured a $25 million debt facility with Ecobank. There isn’t even an equity kicker or mezzanine layer here, with the announcement making it sound like this is pure debt. With the underlying asset being a 25-year exclusive diamond mining license in Sierra Leone’s Kono District, the bank is taking a brave punt here.

Meya is already more than $100 million deep in this project, so that gives you an idea of how much it costs to get something like this from dream to reality.

Importantly, Trustco’s $46 million loan to Meya is not subordinated to this loan, so that’s another way in which the bank is taking a significant risk here. It’s unusual to see banks put in a layer of finance that isn’t at the very top of the creditor pile i.e. the most senior debt.


Nibbles:

  • Director dealings:
    • Lesaka Technologies (JSE: LSK) Executive Chairman Ali Mazanderani has bought $399k worth of shares – or roughly another R6.3 million to add to his name. It’s always encouraging when insiders are buying shares in their companies. I recorded a podcast with Ali in November last year. If you haven’t checked it out, I suggest you do so here.
  • Universal Partners (JSE: UPL) has limited liquidity in its stock, so I’ll just mention the latest quarterly results down here. For the period ended December 2025, the net asset value (NAV) per share (which is reported in pounds sterling) fell by 7.4% year-on-year, attributable mainly to the investment in dollar-denominated notes in SC Lowy. I’ll highlight the Workwell business here, which is growing despite all the jitters around AI, so we aren’t exactly seeing a global unemployment crisis just yet. Portman Dentex is running below expectations though, so people seem to be working instead of getting their teeth done at the European dental group. Another one to touch on is Xcede Group, a recruitment business that has been struggling with permanent placements. Employers might still be hiring, but not through traditional channels.
  • I’m not familiar with the dynamics of the Nu-World (JSE: NWL) shareholder register, but it’s clear from the results of the AGM that there is minimal alignment. It’s rare to see resolutions for director appointments squeaking through with 55% approval.
  • Sirius Real Estate (JSE: SRE) has added its name to the list of companies with interesting independent director appointments this week. Ian Watson, who has decades of experience in building, listing and selling property portfolios, has joined their board. I like it when industry experts are appointed as independent non-executive directors. If you’re keen to learn more about the company, I recorded a podcast with the CEO, CFO and CIO of Sirius in December 2025. Check it out here.

Ghost Bites (Powerfleet | Trellidor | Standard Bank)

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Powerfleet is closer to having a net profit (JSE: PWR)

But they aren’t there yet

Thanks to a quieter day of news, we can actually dig into the Powerfleet numbers in more detail. The company is listed in the US, so the reporting is in the 10-Q format on the SEC website. They don’t give an additional narrative on SENS to help South African investors, so you have to go digging.

One of the things you’ll find is the company referring to itself as an “Artificial Intelligence-of-Things solutions provider” – a truly remarkable example of throwing darts at the tech buzzword wall and seeing what sticks. For all the fanciness, they are essentially a fleet management and telematics business.

The focus in recent times has been bedding down acquisitions and growing to the point where the debt costs are covered. They are getting closer, with third quarter revenue up 6.6% to $113 million. Product revenue was down 9.3% and services revenue was up 11.4%. That’s a positive mix effect on gross margin, as the margin on products was 31.6% and on services was 61.0%. This is similar to what you’ll see play out at the biggest tech names in the world, like Apple.

Operating expenses have reduced from $60.0 million to $56.3 million (mainly due to non-recurring acquisition-related expenses in the base period), so they’ve now moved from an operating loss of $1.2 million to operating profit of $6.4 million. Nice!

The hurdle remains the interest expense, which decreased from $7.9 million to $6.8 million. This leaves them with a loss before tax of $0.4 million, which is much better than the net loss of $10.8 million in the comparable quarter.

There’s a large tax expense despite the loss before tax, so the net loss after tax is $3.4 million. That’s still much better than $14.3 million in the comparable period.

The group appears to be sufficiently capitalised for now at least, so they need to keep ramping up their growth and lifting their head above water from a debt-servicing cost perspective.


It’s easier to break through a Trellidor than it is to turn that business around (JSE: TRL)

And to the credit of their products, that makes it very hard indeed

Trellidor released a trading statement for the six months ended 31 December 2025. It’s never good when the first sentence of the announcement starts like this: “Addressing the erosion in shareholder value…”

It’s been a tough few years.

It feels like the problems really started with the court case that went against them in a big way a few years ago. It related to an old employee dispute and ended up being a highly expensive setback for the business (over R32 million).

Another issue is that demand in South Africa has been under pressure, which in my view is due to two things: (1) people are living in complexes and estates that don’t need security doors to nearly the same extent as standalone houses, and (2) there are cheaper security alternatives on the market.

It may surprise you that recent periods were driven mainly by the UK business, where they earned decent project revenue as businesses in that region deal with an increase in the crime rate. Project fees are lumpy though, with the latest period showing you what happens when the lumpy revenue goes away.

As the final precursor to revealing just how bad this period was, I must note that Trellidor has implemented cost saving initiatives that aren’t in these numbers. They will come through in the second half of FY26 and the full year ended June 2027.

Brace yourself for the HEPS guidance: a decrease of between 95.97% and 99.87%! Or, in a way that is easier to understand, HEPS will be between 0.01 cents and 1.19 cents vs. 29.6 cents in the comparable period. In other words, the company was barely profitable in this period.

The share price is R1.96, so I think we can agree that this is an unsustainable Price/Earnings multiple. The announcement came out after the market closed on Tuesday, so the share price action will be on Wednesday.

I think it’s hard to see how this doesn’t end in a buyout offer from a plucky operator who goes in and makes sweeping changes.

But what do you think? Vote in the poll below:


As expected, Standard Bank isn’t trying to acquire other local banks (JSE: SBK)

They’ve now clarified the position

Eyebrows were raised by recent SENS announcements that noted Standard Bank building up positions of 5% or more in other large banking groups. I strongly suspected that this related to Standard Bank’s underlying investment groups, rather than a group strategy to go and acquire minority stakes in competing banks.

Sure enough, Standard Bank has confirmed that subsidiaries Melville Douglas Investment Management, Liberty Group and Standard Bank Jersey hold equity securities in JSE-listed companies as part of the ordinary course of business. Standard Bank needs to aggregate these holdings to test if they’ve gone through a 5% ownership threshold in any locally listed companies, as this threshold triggers an announcement.

In other words, you can expect to see this coming through more often – and it doesn’t mean that Standard Bank is trying to acquire competitors, or other random companies!


Nibbles:

  • Director dealings:
    • Mark Barnes has sold R23 million worth of shares in Purple Group (JSE: PPE). The announcement notes that he intends to “start diversifying his investments” – so it seems that you can expect to see more of this.
  • Coronation (JSE: CML) has appointed Aimee Rhoda as the CFO of the group. This is an internal appointment, with Rhoda having joined the group all the way back in 2007. It’s always good to see this kind of institutional memory coming through.
  • With lots of chatter around RMB Holdings (JSE: RMH) and the offer for shares by AttBid (a consortium of Atterbury and the brothers who founded WeBuyCars (JSE: WBC)), it’s not surprising to see that Peresec Prime Brokers has a 5.04% stake in RMB Holdings. Peresec is often involved where there are corporate actions. It would be nice to know who really sits behind this stake…
  • I don’t normally comment on institutional investors buying and selling shares, as this happens all the time, and for many reasons. But sometimes, there’s a smaller company where a respected boutique asset manager is doing something with the shares. In such a case, that’s worth noting. So, in that spirit, I’ll point out that Orion Minerals (JSE: ORN) announced that Fairtree Asset Management sold shares worth R8 million and is therefore no longer a “substantial holder” as defined. The share price has run incredibly hard this year and I don’t blame them for taking profit.
  • There are a couple of notable independent director changes at Nedbank (JSE: NED). Hubert Brody is retiring as Lead Independent Director after a nine-year term on the board. Brian Dames is also retiring, having served an extended term that started in 2014. Peter Wharton-Hood, the CEO of Life Healthcare (JSE: LHC), is joining as an independent director. It’s unusual (but not unheard of) to see a current CEO of a listed company join the board of another company.
  • Here’s another corporate governance announcement that is worth including: British American Tobacco (JSE: BAT) has extended Luc Jobin’s tenure as Chair for up to two years. This is a deviation from the UK Corporate Governance Code’s recommendation of a nine-year term, but the company doesn’t want to introduce uncertainty into the current “transformation agenda” at the group. In other words, they want to be left in peace to execute the current strategy for at least the next two years.
  • Africa Bitcoin Corporation (JSE: BAC) has bought the bitcoin dip. They’ve acquired another 1.3554 bitcoin for R1.51 million at an average price of R1.11 million per bitcoin. My concern is they appear to have at least partially funded it through debt. They’ve now put R7.3 million into bitcoin at an average price of R1.6 million per bitcoin. The current price is R1.07 million per bitcoin, so that position is properly in the red thus far.
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