Friday, November 15, 2024
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Ghost Bites (Absa | Advanced Health | Bell Equipment | Capital Appreciation | Kore Potash | OUTsurance | Renergen | Tongaat Hulett)

The Finance Ghost
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Ghost Bites (Absa | Advanced Health | Bell Equipment | Capital Appreciation | Kore Potash | OUTsurance | Renergen | Tongaat Hulett)

Absa announces a 7% B-BBEE deal (JSE: ABG)

Sadly, retail investors can’t get involved

After Old Mutual’s recent deal, I was quite chuffed to see the headline on SENS about a new B-BBEE deal at Absa. The investable universe of listed B-BBEE structures is tiny and offers very little in the way of industry diversification.

Disappointingly, Absa isn’t improving the situation.

A 4% stake will land in the hands of a CSI trust and 3% is going to a staff trust. This is an R11.16 billion deal that Absa says will sustainably take its Black Ownership (as defined in the Codes) above 25%.

Interestingly, 82% of the scheme will be attributable to Black staff, which gives a sense of the underlying demographics in the group. There will essentially be a “kicker” for Black staff in the form of a larger allocation than for non-Black and foreign counterparts.

The CSI trust will focus on education and youth employability, both of which are critically important to the future of our country.

The funding structure includes a sizable portion of equity linked to existing shares held by Absa that were received from the Barclays separation, as well as preference share funding of R4.5 billion at 72% of prime and mezzanine funding of R1.7 billion at 90% of prime.

With only 55% of the value of the special purpose vehicle holding the shares funded by the senior and mezzanine preference shares, the level of gearing is reasonable from the outset. Long gone are the days of 100% geared structures using external bank funding, the only beneficiary of which was usually the bank providing funding that was in any event guaranteed by the corporate doing the B-BBEE deal.

There will be a substantial IFRS 2 charge linked to the equity portion of the structure, which will drop Absa’s headline earnings by over 3%.

Widening losses at Advanced Health (JSE: AVL)

The numbers are going the wrong way

Advanced Health is in the process of selling the PresMed Australia business, having received a resounding approval from shareholders for the deal.

The group needs to achieve a turnaround in its profitability, as a trading statement confirms that the headline loss per share for the year ended December 2022 will be 27% worse than the comparable period, coming in at -4.18 cents per share.

Importantly, this is a headline loss from continuing operations, so there is much work to be done.

Bell signs off on a wonderful year (JSE: BEL)

The share price is up 170% over 3 years but is still at a modest multiple

If you can get the timing right in cyclical businesses, you can make serious money. You needed a crystal clear ball, not just a crystal ball back in 2020 in the height of Covid to know that the commodity sector (and related industries) would do well. If you had one of those (or just made a lucky guess), you would really be smiling in Bell Equipment.

In the year ended December 2022, revenue increased by 28% and HEPS was good for 61% growth. The dividend per share surpassed both those growth rates, up 80%. I wouldn’t describe Bell as a cash cow though, as HEPS was 473 cents and the dividend was 90 cents, so the payout ratio was only 19%.

The required investment in working capital is part of why Bell can’t pay huge dividends. Group inventory increased by 31% to support sales, which in absolute terms means R1.1 billion worth of shiny yellow equipment that inspires many toys at the local toy store. Full disclosure: yellow earthmoving equipment is Toddler Ghost’s absolute favourite thing in the world.

At a closing price of R17.25 per share, this puts the company on a trailing Price/Earnings multiple of just 3.65x. The dividend yield is appealing but not as high as some other JSE companies, trading at 5.2%.

There’s a paragraph linked to load shedding that really lays bare the impact of Eskom on our economy:

But to cheer you up a bit on this Monday, here’s the all-important paragraph from the outlook section:

This Bell might be ringing for a while still…

Caprec: revenue up, profits less convincing (JSE: CTA)

A long-term view is needed here on Capital Appreciation

Capital Appreciation offers products and services that are in fast-growing industries. That’s a good thing. Sometimes, this requires substantial investment to maintain a solid position in the market and to keep growing. That is hopefully only a bad thing when viewed through a short-term lens.

It’s been a wobbly of a year for Capital Appreciation, with the impairment of the GovChat loan scaring off some investors and leading to others increasing their positions in a time of market volatility. Perhaps more of this will happen when results are released in June.

In the meantime, the group has given an update on the year ended March to try and limit any surprises when detailed results come out.

In the Software division, there has been “exceptional revenue growth” but there has also been a significant increase in headcount and business development spend. This has led to some contracts being won that will only pay off in the next financial year, so there is a warning here about the impact on profits for the financial year that just ended.

There’s also a cautious update on the Payments business, which has experienced double-digit growing in terminal volumes but has seen a change in sales mix towards lower-priced terminals, which has a negative impact on profits.

The group has also reminded the market that the balance sheet has no debt and is in a strong position.

The management team has given the market ample warning here that revenue for FY23 will look good and profits will be under pressure. Despite this, there’s every chance of share price volatility when the results are eventually released.

The company recently joined us on Unlock the Stock, an incredibly useful resource for you to learn more about Capital Appreciation (and Afrimat from the same event):

Kore Potash needs to get its projects across the line (JSE: KP2)

The company needs to raise funds before the fourth quarter of 2023

Kore Potash has released its financial results for the year ended December 2022. The company’s focus is primarily on the Kola project in the Republic of Congo. You may recall that the Minister of Mines got grumpy with the company about lack of progress at the project, even leading to the address and release without charge of two senior employees.

A few visits to the Congo later and things seem to be ok on that front. That’s just as well, because the company doesn’t have sufficient working capital for the next 12 months and needs to get its project across the line. Net outflows for the year were $5.7 million and the cash balance is $5 million. You don’t need your calculator to help you see the problem here.

Thankfully, a lot of progress has been made on the project. The Engineering, Procurement and Construction (EPC) contract is being negotiated and this is a complicated piece of work. Remember, contracts can sink construction companies if they go wrong, so the counterparty (SEPCO Electric Power Construction Corporation) is taking its time to get it right. To try and reduce risk, Kore Potash has requested SEPCO’s parent company (PowerChina) to provide contract guarantees, including performance and retention bonds.

The good news is that the Summit Consortium has a lot of patience. The deal with Summit goes back to April 2021, with a plan for the consortium to provide funding for the project once the EPC is concluded. This has taken longer than expected, but Summit has confirmed that it is still very interested in the project and can provide the full construction funding within 6 weeks of the EPC being finalised.

The share price closed 5.9% lower on thin volumes, so I wouldn’t read too much into that.

This OUTsurance exec is getting something out (JSE: OUT)

OUTsurance is increasing its stake in the Aussie business

Australian corporate actions seem to be all the rage again on the JSE. It’s just a coincidence really, but it shows how many South African corporates have historically invested in the land of kangaroos and broken retail dreams.

Success has been rare, but OUTsurance seemed to get it right by starting Youi from scratch in 2008. It’s quite incredible that a business started in widowmaker Australia at the onset of the Global Financial Crisis has turned out to be a success.

So successful, in fact, that an OUTsurance executive with a 5.3% interest in the company (built up through share options during his time as CEO of the Aussie business) is selling half of that stake to the mother ship for A$36 million. OUTsurance also has a call option to buy the rest of the shares by 31 October 2023. The valuation methodology has been agreed but not the actual valuation, as earnings will vary between now and then.

OUTsurance already owns 89.8% of Youi before taking into account this stake. Full ownership surely isn’t far away.

Renergen recaps the quarter (JSE: REN)

Like in a bad relationship, the wells aren’t communicating

I learnt a new term from Renergen in this update. With the company talking about 5 successful wells within 100 metres of each other, the term is that they “aren’t communicating” i.e. aren’t connected, so each one is giving separate access to gas. This is important as the Reserve Report assumed 300 metres of distance between wells, so this suggests that more wells may be possible than initially thought.

As CEO Stefano Marani discussed on a recent podcast with me, Renergen is not exposed to load shedding. The power feed is directly from the main 132kV line. That’s a significant advantage in South Africa.

The LNG system achieved initial production in September 2022 and liquid helium (Lhe) production was achieved in January 2023. The modules for LNG and Lhe are now being integrated. Although not part of this quarter, the company noted that LNG delivery and gasification was commissioned for Ceramic Industries in October 2022 and Consol (now Ardagh Glass Bottling) in November 2022.

Of course, all eyes are on Phase 2 of Renergen’s story, which is the capital-hungry phase that will turn the company into a scale producer of helium. There are several operational milestones in this regard but the most relevant in my eyes is the debt raise with the United States Development Finance Corporation and Standard Bank. The combined debt is $750 million.

One of the risks here is completely outside of Renergen’s hands: the potential falling out of South Africa with the US government over relations with Russia. We are playing a risky political game as a country and the risk of this scuppering the debt raise isn’t zero.

The share price has come under great pressure as many retail investors learnt the hard way that junior mining requires loads of capital:

A critical time for Tongaat Hulett (JSE: TON)

There’s a lot happening between now and June

Tongaat Hulett is in business rescue and its shares are suspended from trading on the JSE because the company hasn’t released its financial statements for the year ended March. Until there is some certainty around the company’s ability to continue as a going concern, those financials can’t be released.

The post-commencement finance facility has been extended to 30 June 2023. This is the funding provided to the business rescue practitioners to enable the company to keep running while a plan is put together. Speaking of the business rescue plan, the release date has been extended to 31 May 2023. I don’t think I’ve ever seen a business rescue plan published in line with the originally communicated deadline.

Perhaps the most important news is that negotiations with existing stakeholders are expected to result in bids being received from equity partners by 26 May 2023.

In operational news, the impact of the floods in Mozambique has been estimated. Approximately 10% of the sugar cane estimated to be crushed by the Xinavane mill during the upcoming season has been lost. At Mafimbasse Estate, the impact is thankfully minimal.

Little Bites:

  • Director dealings:
    • The purchase of shares by Value Capital Partners tends to come through as director dealings because they usually have representation on the board. The latest example is a purchase of Sun International (JSE: SUI) shares worth over R65 million.
    • A prescribed officer of AngloGold Ashanti (JSE: ANG) sold shares worth A$920k (pay attention to the currency there).
    • An executive of Gold Fields (JSE: GFI) has sold shares worth R3.8 million.
    • Des de Beer has bought another R1.9 million worth of shares in Lighthouse Properties (JSE: LTE).
    • Three directors of Grand Parade Investments (JSE: GPL) accepted the mandatory offer by GMB (i.e. sold shares to GMB) worth a total of around R1.4 million.
    • Sabvest (JSE: SBP) bought another R1.275 million worth of shares in Transaction Capital (JSE: TCP) (this is a director dealing as Chris Seabrooke is on the board of Transaction Capital).
    • A non-executive director of BHP (JSE: BHG) has acquired shares worth over $58k.
    • A director of Sirius Real Estate (JSE: SRE) bought shares worth £6.4k
    • An associate of a director of Astoria (JSE: ARA) bought shares worth R20.7k.
  • Lighthouse Properties (JSE: LTE) is offering another scrip distribution alternative to shareholders. This gives shareholders the option to receive shares in lieu of a cash dividend. The value for the scrip alternative is €0.01625 and the value for the cash distribution is €0.014625 per share. It’s been interesting to watch Des de Beer build his stake in the company through ongoing buying of shares and the scrip dividend as a kicker.
  • Gemfields (JSE : GML) gave such a detailed update in March that I had already covered the details in this edition of Ghost Bites. If you want to go digging for more gems in the numbers, be aware that the annual report has been released at this link.
  • Wesizwe Platinum (JSE: WEZ) released results for the year ended December 2022. There is no revenue yet, so there’s obviously no dividend. It’s all about cash burn, with administration expenses up by 66% to R62 million.
  • Telemasters (JSE: TLM) is an obscure listed company that holds a variety of networking and data centre businesses. Revenue fell by 5% in the six months ended December 2022. Expenses were also reduced, so there’s at least a tiny operating profit (and I mean tiny). There is still a headline loss per share of 1.02 cents though, an improvement from a loss of 1.68 cents in the comparable period. Weirdly, a dividend of 0.01 cents has been declared.
  • The circular for Ellies‘ (JSE: ELI) acquisition of Bundu Power will be distributed by 31 May 2023.
  • Delta Property Fund (JSE: DLT) has achieved shareholder approval for the disposal of Capital Towers in Pietermaritzburg. The price is R65.55 million and the sale is now unconditional.
  • Europa Metals (JSE: EUZ) released interim results for the six months ended December. The focus here is on the development of the Toral project, not the financial performance of Europa. The mining licence application is due for submission by 31 July 2023. The funding for the Toral project is coming from Canadian explorer and mine developer Denarius Metals Corp in exchange for a 51% stake in Toral project. In other words, investors need to be aware that Europa will not control that project over the long term.
  • In an unusual update, Sygnia (JSE: SYG) noted that the person earmarked to take the Financial Director role on 1 April can no longer do so for personal reasons. A new candidate will need to be found.
  • There’s a bit of musical chairs within the Heriot Properties (JSE: HET) stable in terms of where the investment in Safari Investments (JSE: SAR) is held. If you take the view of “Heriot and its concert parties” then there is no change here, as they hold 47.2% in the company before and after the latest deal.
  • Conduit Capital (JSE: CND) is currently suspended from trading and is in the process of finalising audits of group entities excluding Constantia Insurance Company. The board has also been a game of musical chairs in recent months, with several director changes.
  • In case you need a reminder of how tiny Visual International (JSE: VIS) is, the company has taken a 20% interest in a property company called Tuin Huis. Before you get excited, that company owns just two houses in Cape Town’s northern suburbs that will be developed as an “Infill Housing Project” – a fancy name for a sub-division, from what I can tell. The CEO of Visual is also a shareholder of Tuin Huis, but the deal is so small that an independent expert isn’t even needed.
  • London Finance & Investment Group (JSE: LNF), quite possibly the company on the JSE that gets spoken about the least in the market, released results for the six months ended December. The fair value of the portfolio increased by 8%, above the company’s benchmarks of the FTSE 100 (1.9%) and the FTSEurofirst 300 Index (5.7%). The dividend is steady year-on-year at 55 pence, with the rand amount obviously varying vs. last year because of the exchange rate. Liquidity in this stock is almost non-existent.
  • And finally, if you feel like reading something that will make all your problems feel better, look for the quarterly update by Afristrat Investment Holdings. I wish I could even find the company’s website to include as a link here.

Ghost Bites (aReit | Metair | Nampak | Southern Palladium | Workforce | York)

The Finance Ghost
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Ghost Bites (aReit | Metair | Nampak | Southern Palladium | Workforce | York)

aReit is aDisappointment, as expected (JSE: APO)

This has turned out exactly the way I thought it would

When aReit came to market, I thought that even its name wasn’t the worst thing about it. The portfolio is tiny and the company was hoping to achieve pricing with reference to the NAV rather than the yield. This doesn’t work in South Africa.

Sure enough, liquidity is low and the company is trading at a vast discount to NAV. I wish the best of luck to those who bought the private placing of 20,000,000 shares at R8.00 per share during the listing process. In fact, I wish them a miracle.

The current share price is R3.90, a 58% discount to the NAV. Before you get excited, the dividend for the full year was 29.99 cents, which puts it on a yield of 7.7%.

Why on earth would anyone buy at that yield when you can buy practically every other listed property company (with much larger portfolios) at a higher yield?

Metair? Met eish. (JSE: MTA)

The bad luck just doesn’t stop for Metair

In very unfortunate news, the interim CEO of Metair (JSE: MTA), Sjoerd Douwenga, was involved in an accident this week and is thankfully recovering out of hospital. This understandably led to a postponement of the financial results presentation and roadshow.

This really does cap off a period that Metair will want to forget as quickly as possible. The results for the year ended December were horrible, with revenue up 10% as the only highlight. The company faced all kinds of headwinds, leading to HEPS dropping spectacularly from 354 cents to a loss of 17 cents.

Cash generated from operations fell from R649 million to R152 million.

The good news is that Toyota South Africa (Metair’s major local customer) recovered from the flood earlier in the year by Q4 and business interruption claims were finalised for loss of turnover. Substantial costs were incurred in preparation for the launch of the new Ford Ranger, so that coming on stream will make a big difference as well. Targeted production levels are expected to be reached from April 2023.

If it’s not flooding on one end of the business, it’s hyperinflation affecting the other. The energy storage business in Turkey has had to navigate a hyperinflationary environment and this is going to cause all kinds of headaches for Metair’s accounting. Encouragingly, a substantial portion of input costs and sales are denominated in hard currency and not directly subject to Turkish inflation.

Results like these can only end in pain on the balance sheet. It’s going to take Metair a long time to recover from this, with net debt up to R2.6 billion from R1.3 billion. Net debt to EBITDA is now 4.4x vs. 0.9x previously. The group has breached covenants and is in discussions with borrowers who have not indicated a desire to recall borrowings or even to levy penalties.

At least the earthquakes in Turkey didn’t impact the business. There’s one silver lining in all of this.

The share price is only down 20% in the past year, surprisingly.

Nampak now has a restructuring committee (JSE: NPK)

Of all the committees a company wants to see, this isn’t one of them

Things have been tough for Nampak, to say the least. The company has released an operating update covering the five months ended February 2022.

Revenue increased by 5%, with a mixed bag at operating segment level that saw a 9% increase in Metals and declines of 6% in Plastic and Paper.

The foreign currency issues just keep getting worse, which means that operating profit is running significantly below trading profit. Those losses have increased from R69 million to R436 million. Simply, this means that the profits from weak currency areas aren’t worth nearly as much in real life as they are on paper. It is really difficult to get foreign currency out of places like Nigeria, leading to the “secondary spot market” being used which has far less attractive rates.

With little ability to make a dent in the debt, net interest paid has increased 45% vs. the prior period.

There are also likely to be impairments in Angola and Nigeria as the weighted average cost of capital has increased. I doubt the market cares to be honest, as the focus is entirely on cash and the balance sheet. What is relevant is that the likely impairment in Nigeria is also being driven by lower volumes as consumer spending power comes under pressure. That’s a genuine operational concern.

The demand for large can sizes at Bevcan South Africa suggests that we may be partying a bit harder to deal with the stress of load shedding at everything else. If Nampak really wants to drive more sales, it should put pictures of the balance sheet above the beer fridge.

Metis Strategic Advisors have been appointed to help Nampak restructure the balance sheet. There’s an extensive restructuring plan on the table, including balance sheet initiatives (like refinancing the existing debt package) and strategic initiatives like the sale of non-core assets (not easy in this environment).

Yes, a rights offer is included in that plan as well and is a condition for the refinancing. The quantum is to be determined.

There is now a Chief Restructuring Officer in place, approved by the lenders. Nampak isn’t in business rescue, but there are some elements to this story that aren’t so different. At this stage, it sounds like the lenders are largely calling the shots.

The share price has lost around three quarters of its value in the past 12 months.

More drilling results at Southern Palladium (JSE: SDL)

The company sounds happy with the results

I don’t invest in junior mining because I don’t pretend to understand it. I am not a geologist and every time I read an announcement regarding drilling results, I’m reminding of why I don’t invest in what I don’t understand. At least when things go wrong in other companies, I can figure out why!

I do tend to skip to the management commentary in these announcements, simply to gauge whether the results are in line with expectations or not. With Southern Palladium having received all results for drilling completed to-date at the Bengwenyama project, the management team is happy that the latest results have continued to “confirm the consistency of the grade and continuity of the UG2 reef” – a result that correlates with the compliant Inferred Mineral Resource.

Workforce reports a 21% increase in HEPS (JSE: WKF)

There’s still no dividend, though

Revenue at Workforce Holdings increased by 24% in the year ended December 2022, taking it to an all-time high for the group of R4.3 billion. Life after Covid is a lot better for this group, with increased economic activity and a return to form for the training and education part of the business.

Although EBITDA was only 10% higher, this was good enough to drive a 21% increase in HEPS.

Despite the stronger results, there is no final dividend here. The company wants to retain cash based on current economic uncertainty and to ensure that it has capital for acquisitions.

With reference to the outlook for its divisions, the company reckons that “all businesses see better prospects for 2023” – an encouraging statement indeed.

The only good news at York is the debt reduction (JSE: YRK)

But you need to look at the working capital and especially the earnings

The first paragraph of the earnings report says it all, really. The word “difficult” is in the opening line and the second sentence talks about a need to urgently improve operating efficiencies. This is exactly the issue with York: those who are bullish (and there aren’t many of them) tend to point to the value of the forests, whereas I’ve always looked at the value generated from turning those forests into wood.

As I wrote recently when York first flagged these earnings, you can’t value a timber business like a botanical garden. They need to generate economic profits by operating, not merely existing. Ironically, the value of the biological asset has increased because of delayed harvesting!

Revenue has dropped by 7% in the six months to December and HEPS fell from 17.04 cents to 11.90 cents. There is once again no dividend.

The good news is that debt has come down, though it still sits at a very high level of 8.6x EBITDA. It’s not hard to see why the company needed a rights offer and if they don’t get this right, I wouldn’t write off the possibility of another one at some point.

Cash generated from operations is worth keeping an eye on, down from R119 million to R46 million.

I don’t think things are going to get better anytime soon, based on the management commentary in the outlook. The share price is down 25% over the past year, trading for several months in a range before breaking lower each time.

Little Bites:

  • Director dealings:
    • An associate of a director of Transaction Capital (JSE: TCP) – one who hasn’t bought shares in the recent collapse – has bought shares worth R1.4 million.
  • Be careful if you are a KAL Group (JSE: KAL – previously Kaap Agri) shareholder. If you own fewer than 100 shares, the odd-lot offer is aimed squarely at you. The default election is to accept the offer and the price of R40.6161352 per share will be paid to you as a dividend, which means it will be subject to dividend withholding tax of 20%. The current share price is R40.30. I’m no tax expert, but I would look carefully at your tax liability if you were to sell the shares instead of accepting the odd-lot. Of course, you can also choose to retain the shares.
  • Having issued a flurry of financial reports, Oando PLC (JSE: OAO) has now announced that its core shareholder (Ocean and Oil Development Partners) wants to acquire the shares held by all minority shareholders. The price is a 58% premium to the last traded price on 28 March 2023. I need to specify the year, because it’s easy to assume that there has been no trade in the share when you consider the financial reporting backlog.
  • Rex Trueform (JSE: RTO) is buying a property in Epping for R65 million. The company has decided to follow a strategy of investing in industrial properties, in this case acquired at a yield of 9.75%. R20.9 million is funded from existing cash and R44.1 million from a bond.
  • I appreciate seeing small caps execute share buybacks, as they tend to trade at modest multiples and hence an investment in their own shares is logical. Insimbi Industrial Holdings (JSE: ISB) has repurchased 3% of its shares in issue.
  • After the retirement of Motty Sacks as the Executive Chairman of Capital Appreciation (JSE: CTA), fellow co-founder Mike Pimstein will take over the role. Pimstein will relinquish his role as Joint CEO, leaving Bradley Sacks as the sole CEO. Whenever you see an Executive Chairman, it’s important to take note of the Lead Independent Director. Kuseni Dlamini fulfils that role at Capital Appreciation.
  • Visual International Holdings (JSE: VIS) has received approval from City of Cape Town for the construction of Stellendale Junction, which will consist of around 500 apartments.
  • The CFO of Accelerate Property Fund (JSE: APF) is retiring on 31 March and has been replaced on an interim basis by an internal appointment.
  • Randgold & Exploration Company (JSE: RNG) reported an operating loss of R22 million for the year ended December 2022. The net asset value per share decreased 15.9% to 122 cents.

Who’s doing what this week in the South African M&A space?

Marylou Greig
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Who’s doing what this week in the South African M&A space?

Exchange-Listed Companies

Oando Plc has confirmed it has received an offer from its core shareholder Ocean and Oil Development Partners (OODP) to acquire the shares it does not already own in the company. Information contained in a company release in June 2022, stated that OODP held a 57.37% stake with minorities holding the remaining 42.63%. Under the scheme, shareholders will receive ₦7.07 in cash, representing a 58% premium to the last traded share price of Oando on 28 March 2023. In June 2022 a petition was filed with the Federal High Court, Lagos Division for and on behalf of Oando’s minority shareholders led by Venus Construction, requesting that the Court orders the buyout of their entire shareholding.

In accordance with its strategic review of operations, RCL FOODS has entered a binding agreement with EMIF II Investment, to dispose of Vector Logistics for a total cash consideration of R1,25 billion. Earlier this month, the Company resolved to separate its value-added branded businesses from its poultry and logistics operation in order to better position them for optimal growth as independent entities.

PBT Group subsidiary Halliard International Besloten Vennootschap is to dispose of its entire shareholding in Payapps, a global provider of construction payment management Software as a Solutions service. The acquirers, existing shareholders IFM Growth Partners, Saniel Ventures and the Jasper Foundation will pay A$14,35 million (R175,57 million) in cash for the stake. The group intends to distribute the net proceeds to shareholders in the form of a cash distribution.

Murray & Roberts United Kingdom has entered into an agreement with AvidSys Group, in terms of which the company will dispose of its 65% shareholding in Insig Technologies. The disposal consideration for the Perth-based mining technology company was A$1, with AvidSys assuming A$7 million of Insig’s liabilities.

The mandatory offer to Sable Exploration and Mining (SEAM) minority shareholders closed on 24 March with 428,233 shares tendered, representing a 9.8% equity stake in the company. PBNJ now holds 2,6 million SEAM shares representing 59,9% of its issued share capital.

DealMakers is SA’s M&A publication.
www.dealmakerssouthafrica.com

Weekly corporate finance activity by SA exchange-listed companies

Marylou Greig
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Weekly corporate finance activity by SA exchange-listed companies

Vukile Property Fund has announced it is to implement, through an accelerated book build process, an equity raise targeting c. R500 million.

Eastern Platinum has announced a rights offering to fund growth opportunities on the basis of one Right for each Common Share held. At a subscription price of C$0.22 or R1.46 per share, the company will raise R200 million if all rights are exercised and an additional 137,820,773 shares are issued.

KAP Industrial will, as from 4 April 2023, trade under its new name KAP. The JSE share code will remain as KAP and the company will remain listed in the Industrials Sector.

Oceana is to take a secondary listing on A2X with effect from 3 April 2023.

A number of companies listed on one of South Africa’s Stock Exchanges have initiated share buyback programmes and each week update shareholders. They are:

Investec Ltd has repurchased 1,307,149 preference shares at an average price of R94.98 per share, representing 5% of the issued preference share capital of the company. The R124,1m paid to repurchase the shares came from excess cash resources. The Company is not entitled to repurchase any further preference shares in issue under the Programme which has now been closed.

Resilient REIT has cumulatively repurchased 11,772,980 shares representing 3.03% of the Company’s issued share capital. The shares were repurchased at an average price per share of R51.40 for a total value of R605,1 million.

South32 has increased its share repurchase programme by c. $50 million in anticipation of a stronger outlook for commodity prices in the second half of its financial year. This will enable the company to return $158 million to shareholders before September 2023. This week the company repurchased a further 2,088,911 shares at an aggregate cost of A$8,66 million.

Glencore this week repurchased 13,340,000 shares for a total consideration of £60,12 million. The share repurchases form part of the second phase of the company’s existing buy-back programme.

Prosus and Naspers continued with their open-ended share repurchase programmes. During the period 20 to 24 March 2023, a further 4,485,843 Prosus shares were repurchased for an aggregate €305,56 million and a further 555,186 Naspers shares for a total consideration of R1,78 billion.

Four companies issued profit warnings this week: TeleMasters, Metair Investments, EOH and Wesizwe Platinum.

Six companies issued or withdrew cautionary notices: Ayo Technology Solutions, Pembury Lifestyle, PSV, Attacq, African Equity Empowerment Investment and Oando.

DealMakers is SA’s M&A publication.
www.dealmakerssouthafrica.com

The sun will continue to shine on private equity in Africa

Lydia Shadrach-Razzino
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The sun will continue to shine on private equity in Africa

Globally, 2021 was a knock-out year for private equity (PE) transactions (and M&A generally), with 2022 arriving off a very hot 2021. However, global private equity deal activity slowed in 2022 compared to the previous year. According to Bloomberg Law, investments in the global private equity M&A market in 2022 saw reductions of 38.6% from 2021, with deal value down US$820,5bn to $1,3trn in 2022.

African PE space

In the African PE space, the upward trajectory continued in 2022, albeit more muted than 2021. Going forward, it is expected that PE transactions in Africa will continue to grow. According to the AVCA Private Capital Activity Report, the first half (H1) of 2022, was one of the strongest half years for Africa’s private capital industry, with 338 completed deals valued at $4,7bn. This followed an upbeat 2021 for African PE, a year of ample dry powder.

The confidence instilled in investors by PE fund managers in Africa means the continent is expected to remain a very strong investment opportunity for private investors. This is despite the numerous crises of the last couple of years, especially in terms of the effects of the looming global recession and energy crisis, which is significant in South Africa but also a global issue, with energy prices soaring. In addition, the recent rate hikes mean that money is not cheap and this adds complexity and makes for more risk-averse investors.

These challenges have stalled investors to some extent, but there is still dry powder, and capital is being channelled to the market. It does appear that the ticket size is smaller, but that funds are still able to raise capital. While there are not as many high value deals, the market remains buoyant. The smaller ticket trend is something we have seen for the last few years. Overall, it is a fairly positive and opportunistic market, with managers looking at assets where the price is attractive, and those that will offer an uplift to their portfolios.

Opportunities and Challenges

PE investments in Africa still face numerous challenges, however. Post-pandemic and after the impact of global economic turbulence, investors have been thinking very carefully about which sectors will do well and where the pandemic has allowed for discounts on quality assets. Across the world, including in Africa, General Partners (GPs) have had to address new risks and stabilise their investments. In addition, sellers have been holding on to their assets, waiting for an increase in value. Currency volatility in Africa has also been a challenge in recent years, and the devaluation of certain of the local currencies has impacted the value of deals.

We are also likely to see more take privates in 2023. There have been a number of delistings from the Johannesburg Stock Exchange in the past 18 months and this trend will likely continue. According to the AmaranthCX database of South African company listings and delistings, South Africa has been averaging about 25 delistings per year. This, however, also presents a good opportunity for private equity.

Most opportunities lie in the hot sectors, which are currently technology (especially fintech), agriculture, healthcare, financial services and renewable energy.

Exits

In terms of exits in the African market, the general consensus is that they might take a little longer going forward and the fund life of a typical vehicle might need to be extended as managers hold on to assets a little longer to turn the time and growth into a premium. We have not seen many IPOs recently and this is impacted by the cyclical nature of the market.

The AVCA report details how private capital investors achieved 22 full exits between January and June 2022. This was a 29% increase compared to H1 2021. The number of exits in the continent’s PE sector is expected to continue increasing despite global economic turbulence. Globally, the exit market saw a 37% decline from H1 2021, and fund managers appeared to be holding on to their portfolios rather than risking lower prices as valuations in the markets fell.

Start-ups and venture capital

According to Deloitte’s Private Equity Review 2022, 41% of PE firms in South Africa have prioritised risk management in portfolio companies, and 14% of private equity firms in the country said that they would focus on bolt-on and tuck-in acquisitions to augment their portfolio companies. Deloitte also noted that in 2021, 12.4% of the total value invested in PE firms was in start-up and early-stage companies, and 45.5% went to buyout and replacement capital for businesses that were expanding. There has also been a strong investor appetite for early-stage investments, leading to growth in the number of dealmakers on the continent. Africa’s venture capitalists have also been attracting global investors.

Africa’s fintech ecosystem has been a star performer in the venture capital space. According to Ashlin Perumall, a Partner in our Corporate/M&A Practice, the fintech industry made up more than 25% of all venture capital rounds in the last few years, with South Africa joining other regional leaders, such as Egypt, Nigeria and Kenya. Out of the nine notable tech unicorns in Africa, seven are fintech companies.

We have also seen increased interest in and appetite for start-ups by development finance institutions (DFIs), with some pretty edgy new ventures attracting their attention.

Focus on sustainability

Another trend to take note of is the heightened focus of PE investors on green, low-carbon and sustainable initiatives in Africa. Projects focusing on clean energy, community healthcare, green transport, sustainable water, wildlife protection and low-carbon developments, for example, are attracting much attention. GPs, and the limited partners investing in their funds, have been prioritising investments that meet acceptable Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) standards. ESG investing has become quite a buzz term driving sustainability and there is some ESG dry powder waiting to be deployed. Energy efficiency, staff training and qualifications, green-house gas emissions, highest standards of governance and best business practices, and litigation risks are some of the factors that they have been considering. Alongside the increased equity investor focus on ESG, some lenders are also prescribing particular ESG principles that a company must meet in order to receive funding.

It appears that the PE sector is shining in Africa as we head deeper into 2023, and investments in the sector are playing a catalytic role in terms of sustainable growth and investment on the continent.

Picking up on another recent trend, I asked artificial intelligence chatbot, ChatGPT, what it thought the future was for private equity and was pleased to see that it confirmed my view, suggesting that private equity would become an increasingly attractive asset class and that, overall, the outlook for private equity in 2023 was positive and would remain so for the foreseeable future.

Lydia Shadrach-Razzino is a Partner and Co-head of the Corporate/M&A Practice |Baker McKenzie Johannesburg

This article first appeared in Catalyst, DealMakers’ quarterly private equity magazine.

DealMakers is SA’s M&A publication.
www.dealmakerssouthafrica.com

Unlock the Stock: PPC Limited

The Finance Ghost
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Unlock the Stock: PPC Limited

Unlock the Stock is a platform designed to let retail investors experience life as a sell-side analyst. Corporate management teams give a presentation and then we open the floor to an interactive Q&A session, facilitated by the hosts.

This year, Unlock the Stock is delivered to you in proud association with A2X, a stock exchange playing an integral part in the progression of the South African marketplace. To find out more, visit the A2X website.

We are also very grateful to the South African team from Lumi Global, who look after the webinar technology for us.

In this fifteenth edition of Unlock the Stock, PPC Limited joined us for the first time on the platform to discuss the way forward this group, having made great strides in repairing the balance sheet. As turnaround stories go, this is one of the good ones.

Use the link below to enjoy this great event, co-hosted by yours truly, Mark Tobin of Coffee Microcaps and the team from Keyter Rech Investor Solutions:

How disruption is shaping the future of healthcare and its impact on medical real estate.

Sponsored Content
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How disruption is shaping the future of healthcare and its impact on medical real estate.

If you were able to go back half a century and suggest that in 2023 you will be able to have your hip replaced with a prosthetic and be home the same day, you would be guided quietly to the Mental Health ward for “re-orientation”.

But it is here, now, and the impact on the way we consume healthcare is changing rapidly as various technologies converge, especially in an open competitive market like the USA. With the current buzz across the world now that AI has been commercialized, we look at key trends that are pushing patients out of the hospital systems, increasingly into more customer centric out-patient facilities.

TECHNOLOGY

Telemedicine and remote healthcare have experienced significant growth since the Covid-19 pandemic which has mostly impacted General Practitioners or behavioural health professionals.

Telemedicine was a powerful enabler over the period of the pandemic providing doctors with the tools to consult remotely, continue to service their patients while still receiving a fee for the service. While the number of patients using true telemedicine is still higher than pre the lock downs most consultations are back to “in person”.

Quite simply many consultations require a physical exam, treatment, small procedures, drawing of samples for pathology analysis and more. But Telemedicine is now regarded as a supplementary service and being adopted by many larger family practitioners to be more efficient and reduce the cost of servicing the patient. But why would they be motivated to be more efficient?

BUSINESS MODEL IS CHANGING

The healthcare industry has been plagued by the inefficiencies of the “fee per visit” system costing insurance companies (medical aid) millions of dollars for overservicing. Technology is enabling doctors to charge the medical insurance companies a success-based fee where the practice can charge a flat fee to “cure” the complaint. This has only become possible through a convergence of technologies and the ability to process data to ensure that the correct tariff is applied that will enable the doctor to provide the service at a quality and fee that keeps all parties happy.

Artificial Intelligence is what is on everyone’s mind at the moment. While the possibilities are endless, we are still very much in its infancy stage and even though accuracy has dramatically improved, doctors cannot rely on AI for 100% accuracy, and need to mitigate any negative consequences.

Artificial intelligence is already being used to analyze medical images such as X-rays, CT scans, and MRI scans to diagnose diseases more accurately and quickly. It is being used to analyze large amounts of data to discover new drugs and treatments for disease, and to analyze patient data in EHRs to help doctors make better treatment decisions and to help doctors diagnose diseases by analyzing symptoms and medical records. AI is also being used to analyze patient data to create personalized treatment plans based on a patient’s genetic makeup and medical history.

AI will also assist doctors in automating administrative tasks and better assess the fee to charge the insurance company for the fee per “cure” as that model takes over. It can follow up on unpaid bills, maintaining records and assisting in running their practices at optimum efficiency, ensuring timely rental payments.

From a high level, AI will assist healthcare practitioners to do more with less, also enabling patients to receive specialised services remotely.

AGEING POPULATION

In America, people over the age of 55 are 30% of the population and are the biggest consumer of U.S healthcare services. This age group is forecasted to grow 16.9% by 2025 and the 80+ segment forecasted to grow nearly 50% in the next 10 years. This older population will require more healthcare than the younger population and will drive the demand for outpatient facilities due to affordability, convenience, and accessibility.

SHIFT TO OUTPATIENT FACILITIES

As healthcare costs rise and patients seek more affordable care options, there is a growing trend towards outpatient care. This is a trend that has continued to increase, with the revenue of outpatient facilities overtaking inpatient facilities, as can be seen from the graph below. As mentioned earlier, technology is one of the primary drivers enabling this shift.

This leads to importance of location for these outpatient facilities. Demand is going to be higher where there is a fast-growing population and economy. Access to reliable transportation, freeway systems and ample parking can also play a crucial role in the success of a medical facility. Proximity to schools, work, hospitals, and other medical facilities are all important in today’s world of busy individuals. Patients and medical professionals alike need to be able to easily access the building and both prefer the convenience of having healthcare options in close proximity to where they live. But it is also important to remember that hospitals also are part of the eco-system and refer the post hospital support to the outpatient facilities in that area. Demographic analysis is also a key factor in location and it’s important to conduct research and analysis on the age, income, and health status of the population.

Orbvest’s new building in Duluth, Atlanta, ticks all these boxes. Duluth is an affluent city located in Gwinnett County, Georgia, approximately 30 miles northeast of downtown Atlanta. Atlanta has the ninth largest MSA (Metropolitan Statistical Area) in the United States with over 6.14 million residents.

The Atlanta MSA has the third highest concentration of Fortune 500 headquarters in the U.S. Nestled inbetween I-85 and Georgia 400 with two major state highways within the city limits, Duluth provides excellent access to the suburban community of more than 80,000 residents and is part of the Metro Atlanta area, the fastest growing metropolitan region in the US. The county is just 45 minutes from Hartsfield-Jackson Atlanta International Airport (the world’s busiest airport), and 30 minutes from downtown Atlanta. The property is also roughly 4 miles from Northside Hospital Duluth. The tenant mix is a perfect synergy of dentistry practices all with different specializations, providing a flow of referrals between them. Averaging 8% per annum cash on cash yields with 100% occupancy in a great location, Lakeside Professional Center is a fantastic income generating investment that offers capital preservation and quarterly returns for investors in USD.

FOR A FLYTHROUGH OF THE MEDICAL 42 LAKESIDE PROFESSIONAL BUILDING, WATCH THE VIDEO BELOW:

Contact OrbVest on www.orbvest.com or email support@orbvest.com

OrbVest SA (Pty) Ltd is an authorised Financial Services Provider. The content and information herein contained and being distributed by OrbVest is for information purposes only and should not be construed, under any circumstances, by implication or otherwise, as advice of any kind or nature, or as an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy or sell or to invest in any securities. Past performance does not guarantee future performance.
Returns are taxable and will be taxed as dividends from a foreign source, ordinary income or capital gains, depending on your tax residency. OrbVest is not a tax and/or legal advisor. Owing to the complex tax reporting requirements associated with private equity and private real estate investments, investors should consult with their financial or tax advisor or attorney before investing.
For members investing via www.orbvest.com the particulars of the investment are outlined in the property supplement, a private placement memorandum or subscription agreement, which should be read in their entirety by the proposed investor prior to investing and having obtained independent advice.

Ghost Bites (4Sight Holdings | Barloworld | Impala Platinum | Indluplace | RCL Foods)

The Finance Ghost
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Ghost Bites (4Sight Holdings | Barloworld | Impala Platinum | Indluplace | RCL Foods)
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4Sight Holdings almost doubles profits (JSE: 4SI)

This tiny company is way off the radar and highly illiquid

You won’t see much trade in 4Sight, with many more offers than bids in the market. The website uses practically every technology buzzword you could think of, with fourth industrial revolution featuring strongly. Even the website domain is .cloud!

Corporate gumph aside, the numbers are the numbers. In this case, they look great year-on-year, with revenue up 20.7% and operating profit up 93.9%. Despite being such an illiquid company, the closing price on Wednesday of 25 cents per share puts the company on a 10.5x P/E multiple based on HEPS of 2.379 cents.

That’s not exactly a small cap bargain.

Barloworld is growing solidly (JSE: BAW)

Life after Zeda is looking good!

With the exit of the Zeda mobility business (now separately listed on the JSE), Barloworld’s shareholders are exposed to a more focused group. The focus now is on growth, with the pandemic behind the business and the balance sheet still in great shape. I’ve commented several times on how well Barloworld has navigated these challenges.

Of course, Russia is still a major problem. Barloworld is still operating in the country, with revenue down by 53% and operating profit down by 37% due to the change in revenue mix. Despite this major drop, the EBITDA margin actually improved from 13.6% to 18.2% because costs in Russia have been slashed. The Russian business is self-sufficient in terms of funding requirements.

If we now lift our heads to group level numbers, we find that the first five months of the financial year have delivered revenue growth of 14.9% and EBITDA growth of 11%, with operating profit up by 18%. Net debt increased to support this growth, as working capital was higher.

In Equipment southern Africa, revenue jumped by a lovely 41.8%, with machine sales up 64.2% and parts up 30.1%. You can see the impact of the commodity cycle coming through here and its knock-on effect into other industries. Operating profit was up 35.9% and the good times look set to continue, with the firm order book up 21% year-on-year.

Russia falls under the Equipment Eurasia segment and we’ve already dealt with that region. The other region in this segment is Mongolia, where revenue grew by 44.6% and operating margin improved from 10.8% to 14.3%.

In the Consumer Industries segment, we find the Ingrain business that was acquired from Tongaat during the pandemic. Although revenue increased by 23.2%, operating margins fell as EBITDA dropped by 12.4%. There were various factors at play here, reflecting the usual challenges of running manufacturing businesses in South Africa.

Overall, Barloworld continues to benefit from this cycle.

Impala’s regulatory journey is nearly over (JSE: IMP)

There is one major approval left for the offer to Royal Bafokeng Platinum shareholders

With the stalemate now over, Northam Platinum and Impala Platinum are moving ahead with their offers to the shareholders of Royal Bafokeng Platinum.

For Impala, the major remaining condition is the issuance of a Compliance Certificate by the Takeover Regulation Panel. The JSE also needs to give an approval for the listing of more shares, but that’s a formality.

The Takeover Special Committee is expected to issue a ruling soon, with the hearing already out of the way. For the gazillionth time, Impala Platinum has had to extend the longstop date and closing date for the process.

Interestingly, despite the Northam offer, Impala has bought another 0.82% in the company and has taken its stake to 41.54%.

Acquisition target Indluplace gives an update (JSE: ILU)

Vacancies are clearly on the right track

Indluplace is currently under offer by SA Corporate Real Estate (JSE: SAC) at a price of R3.40 per share. A circular will be distributed in due course. In the meantime, the company has released an operating update.

The portfolio is heavily tilted towards inner city residential accommodation and student accommodation. Occupancy excluding student accommodation is at 94% vs. 89.7% in March 2022. In the Johannesburg inner city portfolio, vacancies have been reduced from 14.2% in March 2022 to 9.3%. The rest of the portfolio is even lower, with vacancies down from 8.2% to 4.2%.

Although rental collections are good, the business faces the threat of municipal problems that we all know and love in this country, including the latest valuation roll in the City of Johannesburg that includes some valuations that the company believes are unfair.

More details will no doubt be included in the circular and especially in the interim results to be released in May.

RCL Foods to sell Vector Logistics (JSE: RCL)

This disposal is part of RCL’s strategy to focus on its core businesses

This deal goes back to a strategic review at RCL Foods that was initiated in 2020. The company has taken several steps to restructure the business and focus on the value-added consumer brands component. The sale of Vector Logistics is part of this strategy to sharpen up the group.

Vector Logistics is the country’s leading frozen food logistics operator, facilitating RCL’s own integrated supply chain and also serving third party clients. The buyer of this business is a South African entity that is ultimately owned by an emerging markets infrastructure fund that is part of the A. P. Møller Capital stable. This is a Danish group, so there’s a show of faith in South Africa for you.

The purchase price is R1.25 billion. There is a downward adjustment because Vector needs to settle existing share appreciation rights issued to employees of the company as part of the 2009 RCL Foods share appreciation scheme. It’s common in mergers & acquisitions to see an eventual adjustment to the purchase price for factors that are specific to the deal.

There is also a further adjustment based on actual EBITDA for 2023 and 2024 vs. target EBITDA. This isn’t quite an earn-out, as RCL is receiving all the money up-front. If Vector misses the targets, RCL may need to pay some of it back. But there is the potential for an upward adjustment, so that part is an earn-out. The maximum adjustment in either direction is R100 million.

The numbers for Vector are a little tricky to work with. The net assets were R381 million at the start of January 2023 but that’s before the conversion of a shareholder loan into equity, so we can’t compare that to the purchase price. Interim profits were R34.7 million, which would suggest a large multiple for this deal (even when annualising that number) that I doubt is the case.

This is a Category 2 transaction, so we won’t get any further details than these.

Little Bites:

  • Director dealings:
    • Get ready for this one: Koos Bekker has sold Prosus (JSE: PRX) shares worth roughly R3.4 billion. The announcement calls this a “parcel of shares” (because this is by no means the entire holding) and notes that the proceeds will be used to fund the building of hotels in various countries held by the family. Look, I would also rather buy hotels than the garbage Prosus has been buying for the past few years.
    • A director of Sabvest (JSE: SBP) has bought shares worth R777k,
    • The CEO of Sirius Real Estate (JSE: SRE) has bought shares in a family trust worth R125k.
  • Reeza Isaacs has stepped down as Group Finance Director of Woolworths (JSE: WHL), having served for the past 10 years. Zaid Manjra has been appointed as interim CFO, an internal appointment that is always good to see. Whether he not he can make it stick remains to be seen!
  • Wesizwe Platinum (JSE: WEZ) released a trading statement confirming that the headline loss per share for the year ended December 2022 will be between 8.09 cents and 8.39 cents. That’s worse than the loss in the comparable period of 1.48 cents.
  • Investec (JSE: INP or JSE: INL) has exhausted its authority to repurchase preference shares, having now repurchased 5% of the shares that were in issue at the date that the current authority was granted.
  • In case you wondered if you were starting to hallucinate on Wednesday, your eyes were not deceiving you that Oando PLC (JSE: OAO) released a tranche of financial updates in a major catch-up session. It’s funny in a way, as they even include management commentary on results that are years out of date. Still, this process of catching up was needed for the company to remain a listed business.

Ghost Stories #11: Investing in 12B Solar with Grovest (with Jeff Miller, CEO Grovest)

The Finance Ghost
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Ghost Stories #11: Investing in 12B Solar with Grovest (with Jeff Miller, CEO Grovest)

Load shedding isn’t fun. We know this. In a great example of never wasting a good crisis, there are investment opportunities in solar as South Africans effectively build a decentralised grid on private balance sheets.

Offering investors an indicative 18% IRR over 10 years through their new Twelve B Energy Fund, Jeff Miller of Grovest joined me to take a look at:

  • An overview of alternative investments and how s12J set the scene for this asset class to be offered to retail investors in South Africa
  • The danger of assuming that an entire asset class carries a specific risk profile, as the risk ultimately comes from the underlying exposure rather than the type of asset class (e.g. equities / bonds / alternatives)
  • The way in which the tax allowances give a kicker to returns without increasing the risk of the underlying exposure
  • The background to Grovest and how the business is positioned to take advantage of this environment
  • The quality of the investments available to investors if we ignore the tax kicker i.e. the attractiveness of the underlying assets
  • The way that Grovest thinks about gearing (the use of debt to boost equity returns) in a structure like this and how investors can think about their own gearing
  • The cash-on-cash return vs. the return achieved through an eventual sale of the solar cash flows at the end of 10 years, with examples of existing market transactions for such cash flows
  • The project pipeline and the strategy to deploy the full R200 million being raised, with a discussion on the impact of not matching the tax deduction to the cash flows
  • The relationship with Hooray Power as the EPC for these solar projects and the way that this addresses a key risk in solar: project execution risk
  • The sensitivity of the returns to the terminal value
  • Minimum investment size and the important point that there is no cap on the investment
  • A discussion on the capital gains tax and recoupment considerations
  • The difference between invested capital and risk capital and how this relates to the Grovest fees in this investment
  • An overview of the investment committee

For more information, visit twelveb.co.za and reach out to the team with any questions by emailing apply@twelveb.co.za. You can also visit the Grovest website for more information on the broader group.

Twelve B Fund Managers (Pty) Ltd is an approved juristic representative of Black Mountain Investment Management Proprietary Limited, an Authorised Financial Services Provider FSP No 49908.

NOTE: this podcast is for information purposes only and is not a recommendation, nor should it be interpreted as financial advice or an endorsement of the Twelve B product by The Finance Ghost. Do your own research and consult with your independent financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

Woes for local food retailers amidst the ongoing energy crisis – an analysis of Woolworths and Shoprite

The Finance Ghost
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Woes for local food retailers amidst the ongoing energy crisis – an analysis of Woolworths and Shoprite

Alexander Weiss of Trive South Africa shares his views on the local retail industry, including a technical analysis of both Woolworths and Shoprite.

South Africa’s ongoing energy crisis is making headlines for all the wrong reasons as companies battle against the detrimental effects of rolling blackouts and power disruptions, especially within the food retail sector. Food retailers face the cumbersome task of limiting food wastage and remaining profitable despite a growing nationwide energy crisis that has become troublesome for most.

As surging power outages persist and general economic instability arises, local food retailers have expressed concern over the financial repercussions of ongoing power disruptions. Loadshedding has emerged as a familiar yet unpopular theme among South Africans as rolling blackouts intensified during the second half of 2022 and well into 2023.

Food retailers such as Woolworths (JSE: WHL) and Shoprite Group (JSE: SHP) have seen the nation’s energy crisis depress bottom-line figures and cut into shareholder dividends, causing a wave of negative sentiment to enter the local food retail market.

Loadshedding and its Effect on the South African Economy

Despite reaching an all-time high in 2022, the South African economy has only grown by 0.3% from 2019’s pre-pandemic reading, significantly lagging behind the country’s 3.5% population growth. The South African economy contracted more than expected in the fourth quarter of 2022 against persistent loadshedding and rolling blackouts. Despite rallying in the third quarter of last year, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) declined by 1.3% in the fourth quarter, significantly exceeding analyst expectations of a 0.4% decline. This significant contraction in fourth-quarter GDP places South Africa on the precipice of a technical recession as market analysts forecast a further reduction in quarterly growth for the first quarter of 2023.

Food Inflation Surges as Nationwide Energy Crisis Persists

As South Africa’s consumer price inflation ticked up to 7% in February 2023, marginally up from January’s reading of 6.9%, “food and non-alcoholic beverages” emerged as the primary driver behind February’s inflation figure coming in higher than expected. With South African inflation rising for the first time since October 2022, “prices for food and non-alcoholic beverages increased by 13.6%” over the past year, reflecting the highest year-on-year increase in food prices since April 2009, around fourteen years ago. Food and non-alcoholic beverages contributed an alarming 2.3 percentage points to the headline consumer price index (CPI) reading of 7% for February.

Given the extent to which rolling blackouts have intensified nationwide, retailers have to mark up the prices of food items to remain somewhat competitive. Moreover, the intensity of power disruptions has exacerbated the concern over food supply constraints, resulting in many local food retailers taking precautionary measures to avoid excessive food spoilage and waste during extended blackouts.

Woolworths Holdings Limited (JSE: WHL) 

Famous South African multinational retail company, Woolworths Holdings Limited (JSE: WHL), reported record-high interim results for the half-year that ended 25 December 2022. Woolies’ shareholders would have been impressed to see the group report a stellar 75% year-over-year increase in half-year earnings per share (EPS) while free cash flow (FCF) per share surged 30% year-over-year. Despite double-digit growth in revenue and profitability, the price action on Woolies has not reflected the same positive sentiment in recent times, with the share price declining more than 15% since the beginning of March as market participants price in forecasts for slower growth.

Given the relaxation of COVID-related restrictions in Australia, the famous retailer benefitted massively from the influx of shoppers returning to stores. However, as consumer demand normalises in Australia, Woolies expects slower profit growth from continued operations due to the “debilitating power crisis” in South Africa. As Woolies struggles to grapple with “crippling power outages”, CEO Roy Bagattini has informed investors that the group is working with property owners at shopping malls to “move towards renewable energy.” Despite record-high earnings and growth, Woolies stated that the country’s energy crisis has “reduced its domestic adjusted operating profit by an estimated R15 million per month.”

Technical Analysis on WHL 

The price action on Woolies reached the significant resistance level at R80.00 per share (green line) as bullish market sentiment sent the share price surging amidst record-high earnings growth. However, given the retail giant’s statement on how the “debilitating energy crisis” in South Africa slashes domestic operating profit by an estimated R15 million per month, Woolies has seen its share price trend lower, declining more than 15% throughout March.

Should negative sentiment persist, the price action could continue to trend lower toward the next support level at R60.00 per share (black dotted line). If that support level does not hold, the bears could see the price action tick down to lower support levels at R52.00 per share (black dotted line) or R49 per share (red line). These levels could be watched closely as a potential entry point for long-term investors. For the bull case, we might expect the price action to retest the resistance level at R80.00 per share (green line), which could lead to a potential breakout.

Shoprite Holdings Limited (JSE: SHP) 

Africa’s largest supermarket retailer, Shoprite Holdings Limited (JSE: SHP), reported impressive interim sales growth for the half-year period that ended 1 January 2023. Despite the group realising double-digit sales growth, reporting a stellar 16.8% year-over-year increase in the sale of merchandise for the half-year period, CEO Pieter Engelbrecht raised concerns over the country’s ongoing energy crisis. Due to rolling blackouts and power disruptions, Pieter recently stated that Shoprite is “not reporting the level of profit and dividend growth that would normally be associated with this level of sales growth.”

Constant power outages have resulted in Shoprite incurring a “total spend of R560 million on diesel” for the six-month period that ended 1 January 2023. Should the country’s energy crisis persist or worsen, Shoprite could be staring down the barrel of an R1 billion annual diesel bill come the end of the next half-year period. Excessive spending on diesel has depressed the retailer’s bottom line, with “trading profit only increasing by 8.6%, leaving the group’s trading margin at 5.7%, down from 6.1% reported last period.”

Technical Analysis on SHP 

The price action on Africa’s largest supermarket retailer has been consolidating sideways for the last eight months. The primary resistance and support levels are firmly at R255.00 (green line) and R211.00 (red line).

For the bull case, an opportunity could exist if the price action pushes above R240.00 (black dotted line), which could be the first resistance point in the price for the bulls, a share level towards the primary resistance of R255.00 (green line). The bears could see the price action continue its recent downtrend toward the significant support level at R211.00 (red line), which could be the first support level for the bears. Suppose the downtrend persists and the primary support level at R211.00 is tested. In that case, the possibility exists for either a retracement or, if the support level does not hold, the share price can decline to lower support levels.

Sources: Bloomberg, Moneyweb, Shoprite Holdings Limited, Woolworths Holdings Limited, Trading View, Resbank, StatsSA

For more investment research and to learn more about Trive South Africa as a gateway to the JSE and global markets, visit the website here.

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