Empowering the next generation through bursaries and graduate programmes
ITHUBA evolved from a start-up to a stand-out company in only eight years. Recognised as the Top performing Operator in Africa, ITHUBA stands as a shining example of gaming excellence.
In less than a decade since being awarded the licence as the Operator of the National Lottery in June 2015, ITHUBA has successfully built a brand and achieved in each sphere of its business by enhancing the public’s perception of the National Lottery, improving the UX by launching the LOTTO digital platform to reach a much wider audience than ever before.
Embracing the actual value of a National Lottery, ITHUBA changes the lives of citizens through winnings and contributions. In South Africa, it raises funds for the National Lotteries Commission by generating revenue. This revenue directly impacts and affects positive changes throughout South Africa.
Cognisant of the value made towards an improved society, Ubuntu is one of the critical values that has driven ITHUBA, and true to form, its commitment to being a community-oriented company is tangible. It has brought the National Lottery brand closer to its communities, solidifying its position as the Operator that goes above. ITHUBA has demonstrated an unwavering commitment to excellence, exceeding expectations and surpassing their assigned responsibilities.
Social responsibility is one of the founding pillars of ITHUBA’s business operations.
One of ITHUBA’S achievements, closest to CEO Charmaine Mabuza’s heart, is the award ITHUBA received for the Top Empowered Company in the Socio-Economic Development category, awarded at the Top Empowerment Awards in 2022.
Mabuza has said that although each programme is of equal importance, the ITHUBA Scholarship Foundation, aimed at providing tertiary education for matriculants from underprivileged backgrounds, is very close to her heart.
“The ITHUBA Scholarship programme offers students tuition fees, mental health services through ICAS, mentorship and coaching throughout their studies”.
This programme is the cornerstone of the ITHUBA CSI portfolio, with the longest-standing history and impressive reach. The programme covers tuition and study materials, accommodation, meal and personal care allowances, mentorship, counselling and intervention programmes for its beneficiaries.
This initiative has transformed countless lives and has seen its beneficiaries qualify as Doctors, Lawyers, Engineers, and IT Specialists, to name a few fields.
To date, the ITHUBA Scholarship Foundation has seen over 300 beneficiaries graduate.
In the past, ITHUBA ran a Graduate Programme, which was a youth employment initiative placing graduates from Marketing, Accounting and ICT sectors in positions across various departments in ITHUBA for a 12-month internship programme.
While only some of these graduates came across from the ITHUBA Scholarship Foundation, every graduate benefitted immeasurably, gaining invaluable experience at Africa’s leading lottery operator.
Phathiswa Myeni is a proud Graduate of the ITHUBA Scholarship programme – through the foundation, she has been able to pursue her passion by attaining a degree in Finance and has secured a job in Consulting. Phatiswa says that without the help of the foundation, she would have never been able to follow her dreams.
She says, “Most importantly, the Foundation has taught me that through hard work and perseverance through challenging times, I can be what I want to be, as long as I have my head in the right place.”
Driven by their belief that true relief comes through empowerment, ITHUBA’s approach to its education-based CSI initiatives is rooted in sustainability, believing that through education, we uplift and provide long-term solutions for the communities we aim to help. South Africa can only enjoy true transformation if we can all revel in the splendour of opportunity.
ITHUBA stands for equality through opportunity.
ITHUBA has spent the last eight years striving to achieve excellence in each business arena, and its social responsibility portfolio is undoubtedly worthy of celebration.
ITHUBA. Empowering dreams, one story at a time, because every South African deserves a story worth celebrating.
Unlock the Stock is a platform designed to let retail investors experience life as a sell-side analyst. Corporate management teams give a presentation and then we open the floor to an interactive Q&A session, facilitated by the hosts.
This year, Unlock the Stock is delivered to you in proud association with A2X, a stock exchange playing an integral part in the progression of the South African marketplace. To find out more, visit the A2X website.
In this twentieth edition of Unlock the Stock, Attacq and Tharisa both returned to the platform to update investors on recent performance and the way forward..
As usual, I co-hosted the event with Mark Tobin of Coffee Microcaps and the team from Keyter Rech Investor Solutions. Watch the recording here:
Exxaro confirms the extent of the challenges this year (JSE: EXX)
A pre-close update shows significant drops in key metrics
Exxaro has released a pre-close update dealing with the six months ending June 2023. This period has seen a vast decline in export coal prices, coming in at roughly $127 per tonne vs. $265 per tonne in the comparable period. At least iron ore fines prices are up from $101 to $117 per dry metric tonne.
Coal production and sales volumes are down by 4% and 7% respectively. Demand from Eskom has been lower (-6%) and there have been logistical constraints at Transnet (exports -6%), so Exxaro is being let down by government on all fronts.
At least capital expenditure is 8% lower in the coal business, after several key projects reached completion last year. With a substantial net cash balance, the Exxaro balance sheet is more than capable of withstanding some short-term pressure.
Hyprop is recovering most of its load shedding costs (JSE: HYP)
The local retail portfolio looks pretty good to me
Hyprop is one of the few property funds that I hold shares in. With a strong tilt towards the local malls that remain relevant in an eCommerce world and especially a load shedding world, I’m not surprised to see decent metrics in the South African portfolio.
For the five months to May, trading density (sales per square metre) increased by 8.59% year-on-year, with footcount up by 3.46%. The difference is quite simply explained by inflation.
Tenant demand is good, with low vacancy rates and rent reversions in the 11 months to May of 10.1% (unfortunately down from 12.8% in the interim period). Load shedding and general SA jitters have an impact on rentals that can be charged.
Still, Hyprop has done a great job of shielding tenants from load shedding and has recovered 86% of the R55.3 million spent on load shedding. The group is rolling out solar PV projects at many of its malls.
In Eastern Europe, trading density is up by 18.74% for the five months and footcount grew by 13.80%. Things really are going well for retail property owners in that part of the world.
The portfolio in Ghana and Nigeria is ok in local currency, but expressing it in dollars tells a different story. To be fair, it’s not like the South African portfolio looks great in dollars either. The major focus is on replacing Game leases in the Ghanaian malls.
Hyprop’s loan-to-value sits at an acceptable 37.2% and there is no shortage of demand from lenders for bond auctions and debt raises.
The share price is down 10.7% this year as market sentiment has turned against the property sector and the impact of higher interest rates is being priced in.
Merafe announces a drop in ferrochrome prices (JSE: MRF)
The share price is now down 20% this year
Each quarter, Merafe announces the European benchmark ferrochrome price. This is forward looking, as the price is settled for the next quarter.
Merafe’s share price fell by a further 3.7% based on the news that the ferrochrome price will drop by 12.2% in the coming quarter vs. the quarter that just ended.
Murray & Roberts a step closer to getting RUC back (JSE: MUR)
It’s all very technical from a legal perspective, but Murray & Roberts is trying its best here
If you’ve been following Murray & Roberts recently, you’ll know that the Australian business is in administration. Clough is the real problem, as RUC Cementation Mining Contractors (or just RUC for short) is a decent business that the group wants to hang onto.
This requires a lot of fancy legal footwork, as well as negotiations with creditors.
If they get it right, then Murray & Roberts will re-establish the full scale of its multinational mining platform.
The art of distraction: a lesson by Naspers / Prosus (JSE: NPN | JSE: PRX)
When releasing terrible results, how do you soften the blow for shareholders?
In news that would be hilariously funny if it wasn’t also so obnoxious, Naspers and Prosus have announced that the cross-holding structure will be unwound. Yes, this is exactly the same structure that asset managers begged the management team not to implement in the first place.
Being an advisor to this group truly is the holy grail of professional services. You get paid twice, basically for crossing the road and then retracing your steps. Of course, the management team dresses this up by saying that the deal will enable the repurchase programme to continue, with the removal of complexity (which they caused against everyone’s advice) as only the secondary reason.
Here’s my favourite paragraph from Prosus, where they act all surprised that everyone hated it:
Moving on to the results, the operating loss for the year ended March 2023 has worsened from -$950 million to -$1,338 million. HEPS dropped from 201 US cents to 46 US cents. A lower contribution from Tencent is part of this.
The eCommerce platform is only targeted to be profitable during FY25. Someone needs to do a return on capital calculation to see how long it will take to recoup the losses and then actually reward shareholders. With total losses in just the last two years of $2.7 billion, I think it’s going to take a while.
Food Delivery is growing revenue, with Prosus acquiring the remaining 33.3% stake in iFood from Just Eat Takeaway in November 2022 for a cool €1.5 billion, plus contingent consideration of €300 million. The group says that “profitability improved meaningfully” but that’s rather disingenuous. They should rather say that losses have reduced, as this segment moved from a trading loss of $724 million to $649 million.
The group deployed “only” another €1 billion this year into various other opportunities, noting a sharp rise in the cost of capital. You see, the smart thing to do is wait for the cost of capital to be higher and then deploy capital when assets are cheap. Anyway.
In Naspers specifically, you have to click through to the annual report to get any information on Takealot. The thing still doesn’t make a profit, with revenue up by just 12% and losses of $22 million. If Takealot couldn’t make a profit in the past couple of years, what’s going to happen if Amazon really enters this market?
So, with all said and done, how is it possible that the share price performance over the past year has been strong?
This has nothing whatsoever to do with the underlying portfolio and everything to do with the decision to sell down the Tencent stake and buy back shares. It’s a very short-term win in my view, as the discount may be reducing but the Tencent asset is probably the only thing in the group truly worth owning.
Sephaku releases full year financials (JSE: SEP)
We now have the details behind the recent earnings guidance
Sephaku Holdings’ full year numbers reflect a tale of two businesses.
At group level, net profit after tax fell from R45 million to R26 million. Normalised HEPS fell from 17.67 cents to 10.53 cents, so that clearly isn’t good.
As we drill down, we find that Metier delivered an increase in EBITDA from R78 million to R98 million. Profit after tax increased from R30 million to R43 million. This means that the problems are in SepCem, the local business, which is in line with the guidance released before these earnings came out. Indeed, profit has swung horribly from net profit of R82 million to a net loss of R4 million.
Little Bites:
Director dealings:
I don’t have the full background details to this, but R200 million worth of shares in African Rainbow Capital Investments (JSE: AIL) was sold by ARC Fund to Patrice Motsepe’s family investment vehicle at R6.80 per share (above the current market price of R6.40).
A senior executive of Nedbank (JSE: NED) has sold shares worth R6.8 million.
Des de Beer has bought another R1.08 million worth of shares in Lighthouse (JSE: LTE)
Cognition Holdings (JSE: CGN) is going to camp in the Caxton and CTP (JSE: CAT) head office, so the company can sell its head office for R11.875 million. That’s below the net asset value of the property subsidiary, which was R14.5 million as at 30 June 2022.
Attacq (JSE: ATT) has renewed the cautionary announcement related to the proposed acquisition of 30% of the Waterfall portfolio by the Government Employees Pension Fund. Final legal agreements have not yet been concluded.
Vukile Property Fund’s (JSE: VKE) B-BBEE partner, Encha Properties, has sold just over 3.5 million of the 5.5 – 6.5 million shares that the company intends to dispose of as part of loan arrangements with Investec.
The Competition Tribunal has approved the transaction to internalise the Investec Property Fund (JSE: IPF) ManCo without any conditions. Shareholders will now watch significant value be transferred to the management team, which is exactly what they voted in favour of.
NEPI Rockcastle (JSE: NRP) continues to cleverly play the green financing game, updating its Green Financing Framework with more stringent eligibility requirements. This strengthens its commitment to sustainability, which is the warm-and-fuzzy way of saying that the company intends to continue tapping into cheaper green finance.
If the AngloGold (JSE: ANG) sign-on bonuses for executives are anything to go by, then a career in mining is a very good alternative to European football. There are execs banking awards of over R18 million just for joining the company!
Eastern Platinum (JSE: EPS) has retained the services of an investor relations and communications firm based in Canada. There’s a base monthly fee and stock options that vest in 90 days, which I found rather interesting. They carry a term of five years.
Amid the rollercoaster ride of uncertainty in the equity market, is PepsiCo, Inc (NASDAQ: PEP) a refreshing oasis?
Like the effervescence in its legendary cola, PepsiCo has a dividend track record that shines brightly and entices investors looking for resilience in this environment. Management has managed to blend a tantalizing range of products with a dividend growth that never seems to lose its fizz.
PepsiCo’s performance in the first quarter of its 2023 fiscal year spoke volumes.
The company showcased its robustness with earnings per share (EPS) of $1.40 and revenue hitting an impressive $17.84 billion. Notably, revenue increased by 10.2% compared to last year’s quarter, driven by 14.3% organic growth.
This growth provided a strong foundation for the year ahead, prompting management to upgrade their full-year organic revenue growth projection from 6% to an impressive 8%. Furthermore, the EPS growth forecast received a boost, up from 8% to a solid 9%.
These impressive results demonstrate PepsiCo’s ability to navigate challenging market conditions, leveraging its substantial pricing power and strategic positioning within the industry.
Technical
The bulls gained support in the first week of June to begin the retracement from the swing low at $179.47, where they have moved towards the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at $186.03 on the 1D chart.
With the momentum currently in the bulls’ favour, a break above the 50-day moving average of $187.08 could indicate further immediate positive momentum, which might encourage the bulls to extend the retracement towards the Fibonacci midpoint at $188.10 and the golden ratio at $190.17. The rise may continue in the direction of the channel resistance at $196.70 if the bulls capitalize on the momentum to break above the $193.12 level. From there, the estimated fair value of $208.08 is in sight, offering a possible upside of 12.5% from the existing levels.
The bullish investor could, however, also hold out for more enticing entry positions that might become open if the market rejects the golden ratio. In such a scenario, lower support between $182.61 and $177.30 could be crucial as the market might find support there.
Fundamental
PepsiCo finds its place within the consumer staples sector, renowned for its resilience against the ups and downs of the macroeconomic cycle. Among the numerous factors that make PepsiCo an enticing choice for investors during periods of high inflation is its adeptness at transferring increasing input costs to the end consumer. In the most recent quarter, inflationary pressures were especially intense, compelling the company to raise its average prices by 16%.
Surprisingly, this move only led to a modest 2% decline in organic volume, thanks to PepsiCo’s robust brand presence and its inherent ability to command favourable pricing. Consequently, the company successfully maintained an attractive gross margin of 55.2%, reflecting its impressive capacity to weather inflationary challenges while preserving profitability.
However, while the insulation against negative shifts in the economic cycle has its advantages, it also comes with an opportunity cost of potentially missing out on market upturns. This trade-off is evident when comparing the price return of the consumer staples sector, as depicted in the graph below. Over a 10-year period, the consumer staples sector shows a price return of 83.5%, which falls short of the S&P 500’s impressive return of 170.9%. However, it is worth noting that the consumer staples sector generally experiences lower volatility.
Both PepsiCo (126.5%) and Coca-Cola (52.9%) significantly underperformed the broader market. However, PepsiCo managed to generate a respectable return that surpasses that of the consumer staples sector. It is essential to consider that the top half of the graph primarily reflects price returns.
When factoring in total returns, including dividends, PepsiCo emerges as an outperformer. Over the course of ten years, PepsiCo exhibits a total return of 201.8%, surpassing that of the S&P 500. This highlights the significance of PepsiCo’s robust dividend payments, which contribute to the overall returns enjoyed by its shareholders.
Illustrated in the graph below, PepsiCo showcases its financial strength through a considerable 2.54% dividend yield and an impressive track record of 51 consecutive annual dividend increases. This translates to a dividend per share (DPS) payout of $1.15, with a payout ratio of 69%.
In contrast, Coca-Cola operates with a relatively higher payout ratio of 80%, partially influenced by its lower earnings per share (EPS). Coca-Cola’s dividend payout stands at $0.44 per share, accompanied by a dividend yield of 2.18%. These figures highlight PepsiCo’s robust dividend performance when compared to its primary competitor, underscoring its position as a dividend powerhouse.
However, certain concerns emerge when evaluating the long-term sustainability of these dividends. The first issue is exemplified in the graph below, shedding light on the company’s relatively modest cash reserves and its limited generation of cash from operations, particularly when compared to its long-term debt obligations. However, this is not an immediate cause for alarm, as PepsiCo maintains a well-structured debt schedule with only $5.95 billion of its long-term debt maturing in 2024, which its available cash can comfortably cover.
Nonetheless, a more prolonged concern arises regarding the company’s ability to consistently increase its dividends, as it may be required to allocate a portion of its future generated cash towards reducing its debt burden. This raises questions about the company’s capacity to sustainably grow dividends in the long run, which is what makes it an attractive investment opportunity to start with.
In addition to its significant debt burden, the company exhibits meagre free cash flow levels, with multiple quarters experiencing negative cash flow over the past five years. As depicted in the graph below, the company’s free cash flows have been inconsistent, lacking steady growth. Recent quarters have seen increased capital expenditures due to investments in supply chain enhancements, manufacturing capacity, and leveraging IT for growth opportunities.
However, investors would ideally expect this increased spending to translate into a consistent generation of free cash flow, which can be distributed to shareholders. Until that occurs, the company’s appealing dividend payments are primarily funded by its debt position. Although this is not an immediate cause for concern, as mentioned earlier, it is not sustainable in the long term unless the company can achieve consistent free cash flow expansion.
Summary
PepsiCo has solidified its position as a profitable and secure investment option, shielding investors from the inherent volatility of the stock market. While their enticing dividend payouts contribute to impressive overall returns, it is important for investors to monitor the sustainability of these dividends. The company carries a significant debt burden and has limited free cash flows available to support the enticing dividend payments.
However, there is potential for improvement in the future, as PepsiCo is making considerable capital investments in growth initiatives. If these investments lead to a recovery in free cash flows and consistent growth, concerns regarding the debt position may be alleviated. In such a scenario, there is a potential upside of 12.5% if the share price reaches the estimated fair value of $208.
Sources: Koyfin, Tradingview, Reuters, Yahoo Finance, PepsiCo, Inc.
Crookes Brothers is heavily loss-making (JSE: CKS)
Primary agriculture doesn’t always grow, sadly
There’s no business quite like show business. Farming is a close second.
Crookes Brothers enjoys far more liquidity on its farms than in its share price. Even a really tough trading statement couldn’t cause any afternoon trade, with no shares changing hands despite an announcement being released.
During a very difficult period in the year ended March 2023, the headline loss per share came in at a rather revolting 708.80 cents. For reference, the prior period saw positive HEPS of 229.60 cents.
For reference, the share price is R32.
Fortress: life after REIT (JSE: FFA)
With a share price up 20% this year, life isn’t so bad after losing REIT status
Capital flexibility really isn’t a bad thing in this environment. After losing REIT status, Fortress doesn’t have to meet the onerous distribution requirements any longer. This means the fund isn’t on the same treadmill as the REITs on the JSE that are constantly having to generate and distribute earnings.
The company has been very busy with property sales, with disposals of R1.2 billion and the recycling of capital into new logistics opportunities.
The vacancy rate in the logistics portfolio is just 1.2%. Perhaps even more impressively, the local retail portfolio has a record low vacancy rate of 2.0%.
The initial yields on the warehouse developments aren’t going to set your pants on fire. They seem to be between 8.5% and 9.0%. In the Central and Eastern Europe portfolio, the yield on new properties is between 6.8% and 7.4%.
Pick n Pay walked away from joint ownership of a new warehouse with Fortress, electing to pay a higher rental instead of owning part of the property. Although a retailer should certainly have better uses for the capital than owning a warehouse, I do wonder about these rental yields in an environment where the prime interest rate is now 11.75%.
Speaking of retailers, Fortress is buying the old Pick n Pay warehouse for R500 million plus a spend of R65 million on the property. A portion of it will be sold to Dis-Chem for R492 million (with thanks to @jacojanscholtzon Twitter for correcting my misread of the SENS here).
In the Industrial portfolio, vacancies increased from 4.5% in December 2022 to 7.2% in May 2023. The Office portfolio is less than 4% of total assets and has seen vacancies go in the right direction, though they remain high at 20.7%.
As a reminder, Fortress owns a meaty 23.9% stake in NEPI Rockcastle (JSE: NRP), a property fund that seems to enjoy a good reputation among local investors.
The loan-to-value ratio at Fortress is 37.3%.
Distributable earnings guidance for the year ended June 2023 has been increased from R1.66 billion to R1.74 billion.
Invicta beat all the odds this year (JSE: IVT)
The group shrugged off geopolitics and other challenges in 2023
In the year ended March 2023, which has hardly been an easy time in the world, Invicta grew revenue by 8.1% and HEPS by 47.9%. The dividend per share is 11.1% higher. This is a proper performance.
The disparity between HEPS and dividend growth becomes even more interesting if you look at operating profit growth, which was only 7%. The trick here is that the share of profits from joint venture Kian Ann is accounted for below operating profit and this metric was up by a lovely 50%.
An important feature of this result is that the entire group did well. Return on net operating assets was solid across every division.
Looking ahead, the group is investing in China. BMG China is off to a slow start but Invicta remains optimistic there, having taken a 40% share in an industrial consumable parts business in China for R45 million. The group is also developing energy conversion technologies in China, adding another layer of diversification.
The share price closed 3.6% higher as the market applauded a set of results where the only blemish was perhaps in cash conversion, specifically due to working capital differences vs. the prior year.
Mantengu Mining is buying back its shares (JSE: MTU)
The current share price is way below the board’s opinion on intrinsic value
When a share is trading below what the directors think it is worth, share buybacks are a good way to allocate capital on behalf of shareholders. The company is literally investing in itself, mopping up shares at a good price and leaving the remaining shareholders in a better position than before.
That’s the theory, anyway.
Share buyback discipline is sorely lacking in many companies. I was impressed to see Mantengu Mining announce a share buyback programme, particularly as this says something about management’s view on future cash flows from Langpan Mining.
The current share price is R1.70 and the board believes that the intrinsic value is R5.55 per share. That’s a big gap that certainly justifies a buyback programme.
The market cap is only R260 million, so getting enough stock to make a meaningful difference isn’t going to be the easiest. Still, those looking for exit liquidity at this price will likely find the company itself on the other side of the trade!
Nedbank is keeping the market well informed (JSE: NED)
The four-month update has been supplemented by a pre-close update
It’s always good to see listed companies giving more information than the minimum required. In this case, Nedbank is really going above and beyond. The ink was barely dry on the update dealing with the four months to April before Nedbank released a further update with news on May and the expectations for the rest of the year.
Nedbank expects GDP growth for the full year of 0.1%, which is at least on the right side of zero. A further 25 basis points increase in the prime rate is expected this year.
The good news is that the guidance given in the previous update remains correct. This means growth in net interest income above mid-teens, with net interest margin above the 410 basis points in the comparable period last year.
The group credit loss ratio is expected to be above 100 basis points, which means it is higher than the target range. As we’ve seen in other banks, the retail and business banking credit loss ratio is worse than in the corporate and investment banking side of the group.
Non-interest revenue is key to driving a higher return on equity and this metric grew by high single digits to the end of May, with full-year guidance of mid-single digit growth.
Expenses are up by high single digits, with mid-to-upper single digit growth expected for the full year.
Despite the growth in income being higher than expenses, as well as the solid growth in associate income from the African investment, headline earnings growth will be “muted” for the first half of the year with a better performance expected in the second half of the year.
The good news is that the share repurchase programme has been executed at a price below book value, which the group notes is accretive to return on equity and diluted HEPS.
PPC releases detailed annual results (JSE: PPC)
These won’t come as a surprise, after the last detailed update
If you remember nothing else about PPC, remember that the businesses on the rest of the continent are showing a happier trajectory than South Africa. This is despite the weak rand making cement imports less competitive than usual. Also remember that the bulk of PPC’s business is local, so “trajectory” and “paying the bills” are two different things.
The reality is that in a slow growth environment with insufficient investment in infrastructure, capacity in PPC’s local business goes to waste. Any uptick in demand would do wonderful things for the PPC business, as an industrials group improving its capacity utilisation is where the true magic of operating leverage becomes visible.
For now, the “SA obligor” results (i.e. South Africa and Botswana) reflect revenue growth of 1% and a drop in EBITDA margin from 11.8% to 8.7%. Despite this, net debt improved by R263 million. The SA obligor group is still profitable, but less profitable than it could be.
Hyperinflation significantly impacts the reported results in Zimbabwe, but the important point is that the dividend has increased from R91 million to R147 million. The Rwanda business paid an inaugural dividend of R79 million to the group.
Perhaps the most interesting thing is that debt levels in the SA obligor group are considered to be at an optimal level of gearing. Instead of using dividends from the other African businesses to reduce debt, PPC is able to return cash to shareholders. This takes the form of a share repurchase of R200 million that has been approved by the board.
Primeserv expects a solid jump in earnings (JSE: PMV)
The share price closed 13% higher, but watch that bid-offer spread
In a trading statement dealing with the year ended March, Primeserv’s HEPS is expected to increase by between 24% and 32%. Results will be out on Thursday, so that will give us full details.
Although the share price closed 13% higher, that was purely because the bid-offer spread is enormous. There are many offers in the market at R1.30, which is where the bid finally hit based on this trading statement.
You always have to be careful when interpreting major daily moves in illiquid companies.
RECM & Calibre (RAC) can attribute 95.7% of its asset exposure to its 58.8% stake in alternative gaming group Goldrush. Before you get throwbacks to Dodgeball, we aren’t talking about that kind of alternative gaming.
Goldrush operates electronic bingo terminals, limited pay-out machines, sports betting shops and online betting businesses. Three of the four lines of business are significantly affected by load shedding. Shopping at Mr Price by torchlight is one thing, but there really is no way to play an electronic game without electricity.
The problem in this period was the move from stage 4 to stage 6 load shedding. Frankly, no business in South African can withstand stage 6 for an extended period.
Despite the challenges, Goldrush grew revenue by 18% and EBITDA by 2% without the effect of IFRS 16, an accounting standard that is perhaps final proof that accountants need to get out more and spend time in real businesses before setting standards. EBITDA would’ve been up by 9% if not for a once-off gain on settlement of a finance arrangement in the prior year.
RAC is structured as an investment holding company. The investment in Goldrush is valued at 7x EBITDA. The equity value of Goldrush has increased by 6% over the past year, with a total return of 9% including the dividend. At RAC level, the net asset value per share grew by 7.3% including the impact of Astoria (JSE: ARA) shares that were unbundled to shareholders.
But perhaps the most interesting part of this announcement is buried right at the bottom:
Simply, this means that the management fees will now be calculated with reference to the market cap (what the market says the business is worth), rather than the director’s valuation of the underlying company. That’s a significant step for an investment holding company to take, building more alignment between management and shareholders.
Renergen hits the milestones (JSE: REN)
The US congressional notification process is complete
After the major US debt package was recently announced, there were a couple of key conditions that need to be met. One was a US congressional notification, which is now complete. The other relates to a large equity capital raise, which is where the focus will now sit.
In a quarterly review, Renergen highlighted the debt funding as the biggest step forward this quarter. There was other good news too, like a contract to supply LNG to Timelink Cargo.
It wasn’t all smooth sailing, with a leak detected in the helium circuit that requires an off-site repair. Although these are hopefully teething problems, it’s a reminder that the production process isn’t simple.
In case you’re wondering, a drilling programme is still underway. The colourful names continue, with the Morpheus well as the recent focus.
Revenue from customers in this quarter was R14 million and administrative and corporate costs were nearly R20 million.
Little Bites:
Director dealings:
Des de Beer is back in action with Lighthouse (JSE: LTE), this time buying R12.9 million worth of shares.
A non-executive director of Stadio (JSE: SDO) has bought shares worth R180k.
If you hold fewer than 100 shares in CA&S Holdings (JSE: CAA), then you need to be aware that the odd-lot offer was approved by shareholders. This is being structured as a dividend, so there is dividends withholding tax on the amount paid to shareholders under the offer. This is particularly important for individual shareholders, as the price is R7.06 before tax and R5.65 net of tax. You can elect not to sell, but you need to specifically make that election. If you do nothing and you hold them in your own name, you could be worse off than if you just sold the shares on the open market.
Castleview Property Fund (JSE: CVW) is selling the Makhaza Shopping Centre in Khayelitsha to a related party for R140 million. This is above the valuation in the March 2023 books of R136 million. Despite being to a related party, the sale is so small as a percentage of the market cap that no shareholder approval is required.
With the Impala Platinum (JSE: IMP) corporate action still underway, Royal Bafokeng Platinum (JSE: RBP) has extended the appointment of its interim CFO. There are still a couple of conditions precedent to be met, with the Takeover Regulation Panel as the major remaining hurdle.
AngloGold Ashanti (JSE: ANG) is trying quite hard to move the narrative away from the horrible quarterly update that came out last week. The company announced a deal for a large wind and solar renewable energy project at the Tropicana Gold Mine in Australia. A third party, Pacific Energy, will construct the project under a 10-year power purchase agreement. It will be integrated into the existing gas-fired facility at the mine. This will be the largest off-grid gas-wind-solar project with battery backup in the Australian resources sector.
Welcome to Ghost Wrap. It’s fast. It’s fun. It’s informative.
In this week’s episode of Ghost Wrap, we cover these important stories on the local market:
Afrimat is acquiring Lafarge South Africa, a deal announcement that came against a backdrop of disappointing recent performance across the local cement industry.
AngloGold is a perfect example of why I think gold stocks are for trading rather than investing.
Harmony Gold is trying to wave the flag for the sector, though the move into copper says something about gold mining in general.
Growthpoint gave the market an honest assessment of near-term performance in this interest rate cycle and the share price took a knock as a result.
Mr Price released a poor set of numbers, raising questions around whether they have lost focus on the core business in a busy period of M&A.
FirstRand and Standard Bank are both rewarding shareholders, with surprisingly different pros and cons in the recent numbers.
Steinhoff has released possibly its final report as a listed company.
The Ghost Wrap podcast is proudly brought to you by Mazars, a leading international audit, tax and advisory firm with a national footprint within South Africa. Visit the Mazars website for more information.
Afrimat’s acquisition of Glenover was first announced in December 2021. The deal structure was the purchase of certain assets and a right to mine select deposits at the Glenover mine, with the option to acquire 100% of the shares in Glenover Phosphate.
Of the total deal value of R550 million, R250 million was for the sale assets and R300 million for the option to buy the company.
The sale of assets was implemented in August 2022. Just a couple of months later in October 2022, Afrimat exercised the option to acquire the Glenover shares.
Although there are still a couple of conditions precedent for the share acquisition, including approval under the Mineral and Petroleum Resources Development Act (MPRDA), Afrimat has announced the negotiated payment profile for the R300 million.
The really interesting thing is that R150 million will be settled through the issuance of Afrimat shares based on the 30-day volume weighted average price. This issuance will take place in the next couple of weeks. Then, R147 million is payable in cash on 30 April 2024. This settles the claims against Glenover held by the current owner. In other words, this deals with the shareholder loans being bought by Afrimat.
The price of R3 million for the equity will be paid when the conditions are met.
Once the shares are issued in part settlement of the sale claims, Afrimat will enter into a contract mining agreement with Glenover that will entitle the company to commence mining of other minerals in addition to vermiculite. The benefit here is that Afrimat can start extracting economic value before the shares change hands, as the regulatory process can really drag on.
AngloGold reports a big year-on-year drop in profit (JSE: ANG)
A flat $ price doesn’t help when costs are going up
The conundrum with gold (and why I gave up on this sector) is that the gold price doesn’t automatically go up because of inflation, yet the costs to mine do. The gold price is far more intricate than that, impacted by all kinds of macroeconomic and geopolitical issues.
The latest quarterly update from AngloGold shows exactly how this plays out in practice. In the three months ended March 2023, the average gold price received per ounce was $1,895. This is almost identical to $1,881 in the three months to March 2022. Unfortunately, total cash costs per ounce increased by 14% in the subsidiaries and 28% in the joint ventures. Whichever way you cut it, that means a lot of pressure on margins.
Production issues seem to be part of the problem, primarily due to lower grades being mined. That doesn’t sound good. There are some good news stories at individual mines, but the overall story is clear to see.
For this reason (along with a higher cost of debt as well), profit before tax has dropped from $218 million to $92 million. I have to mention the cost of debt, as the company has borrowings of over $2.1 billion. Finance costs on borrowings increased by 12% year-on-year.
With cash from operations down by 82% and capital expenditure up 5%, it’s not like the cash situation is any prettier.
The recent gold price run has been driving the share price, but it is now moving lower again. The volatility you’ll see in this chart is exactly why I think gold stocks are for trading, not investing:
And against this tricky backdrop, the COO of AngloGold is retiring after 12 years with the company. An interim COO has been appointed and they are looking for a permanent replacement.
One step closer to the Rathbones deal (JSE: INL)
Investec’s deal has received approval from shareholders of Rathbones
If you’ve been staying up to date with news from Investec, you’ll know that the UK Wealth & Investment business is merging with Rathbones Group Plc to create a scale player that has a much better chance of successfully competing in that market.
Shareholders of Rathbones have approved the deal, so the remaining conditions relate to regulatory approvals. Completion of the deal is expected in Q3 / Q4 2023.
Is this Steinhoff’s final report as a listed company? (JSE: SNH)
Interim results have been released
With the WHOA Restructuring Plan approved by the Dutch courts, Steinhoff will now implement the transaction that will see it delist from the JSE once the various steps have been put in place. That might take longer than six months, so there may still be another financial report to come from the business.
It hardly matters, with the share price down at 6 cents. I’m tired of saying I told you so.
With net debt of €9.8 billion and a roll-up of interest that is higher than the rate at which the group could repay the debt, it’s not hard to see why Steinhoff has no value left for shareholders.
The restructuring process has been a gold mine for advisors, with advisory fees of €29 million in this period vs. €6 million in the comparable period.
The most interesting thing is that Steinhoff is now accounting for its investments under investment entity rules. Here is the sum of the parts calculation, showing just how severe the shortfall is vs. the debt balance:
For what it’s worth, the perpetual preference shares in this table are also listed under the ticker JSE: SHFF. They are up 8.6% this year. It makes all the difference knowing where you are playing in the capital stack.
Little Bites:
Director dealings:
The CEO of Bytes (JSE: BYI) sold £4.75 million worth of shares for estate planning purposes. That’s quite an estate, because this excludes the very valuable 1.18% stake that he still has in this R29 billion group.
An associate of the risk director at Investec (JSE: INL) has sold shares worth £3.9 million.
I’m not sure that it is causing too much of an overhang in the Vukile (JSE: VKE) share price, but strategic B-BBEE partner Encha Properties is about halfway through its plan to sell 5.5 million to 6.0 million shares as part of settling upcoming commitments to Investec Bank.
AEEI (JSE: AEE) has released updated pro-forma financials dealing with the effect of unbundling AYO Technology (JSE: AYO). If for some reason you hold shares here, refer to the full announcement for the impact as it is way too detailed to repeat here. In summary, the headline loss would drop from 34.49 cents to 1.13 cents per share.
A drop in NAV for Brimstone this quarter (JSE: BRT)
The full calculation for intrinsic NAV has been released
Before getting into specifics, there is a very important point above the NAV table in the Brimstone announcement. The company notes that each position is reported net of ring-fenced debt and capital gains tax (CGT). Not every fund reports net of CGT (although they should), so that’s a good thing.
Another important point is that over 73% of the Brimstone portfolio sits in Oceana and Sea Harvest. If you don’t like fish, this isn’t for you.
There are several other listed positions in the group, including Equites, Phuthuma Nathi (the MultiChoice SA B-BBEE structure), Stadio and MTN Zakhele Futhi. For these assets, the observable market price is used for the NAV calculation.
As we head into the unlisted section of the portfolio, Brimstone has to use various other valuation techniques ranging from book value to earnings multiples.
There is a significant amount of debt in the portfolio. The gross asset value of R5.3 billion carries nearly R2.2 billion worth of debt.
The fully diluted intrinsic NAV per share fell by 7.3% from December 2022 to the end of March 2023. That’s a particularly ugly outcome on an annualised basis, but this was a very rough period on the JSE for “SA Inc.” and much of the underlying exposure is in that bucket.
Interest rates are biting Growthpoint (JSE: GRT)
A particularly honest trading update gave the market a nasty surprise
To make the economics work, property funds need to operate with high levels of debt. Just think of any of your personal property investments. Debt is part of the appeal, as you can borrow up to 100% of the value of a property as an individual in an attempt to really juice your returns. Emphasis on the word “attempt”.
In the listed space, a REIT can operate at a maximum of 60% loan-to-value. Most of them aim for around 40% to leave some headroom. This means that when the cost of debt rises, a bigger chunk of rental income needs to pay the bank before going to shareholders.
When rentals come under pressure, the situation is worse. Negative rental reversions at Growthpoint improved from -16% in the interim period to -14.3% in the nine months ended March 2023. In other words, the latest quarter was quite a bit better.
Operating costs are also a problem, particularly diesel costs for generators that cannot be fully recovered from tenants. In the industrial parks, the recovery rate is 74%. The recovery rate in retail is described as “low” and in in the office sector, the recovery rate is 60%.
Looking at specific sectors, reversions in retail were -11.3% for the nine months, down from -13.1% in the interim period. The renewal success rate was only 79.1%, with cinemas in two malls deciding not to renew.
In the office sector, vacancy of 20.1% is a slight improvement from 22.4% a year ago. There’s some hope in places like Illovo, with Sandton clearly still problematic. It’s very dependent on supply and demand of course, with a Western Cape vacancy rate of 11.4% and KZN sitting at 4.2%. Negative reversions were -19.8%, or -10.8% excluding one particularly large space.
Even in industrial property, there are negative reversions (no percentage given) to retain tenants. The vacancy rate has increased from 4.3% in the interim period to 5.0% over the nine months.
The update on the crown jewel in the portfolio, the V&A Waterfront, is always interesting. International tourist arrivals are up 133% on pre-pandemic levels, which is incredible and probably greatly assisted by the weaker rand. Operating profit at this iconic property grew 23% and surpassed pre-pandemic levels by 5%. With just a 0.4% vacancy rate and strong growth in the hospitality assets as well, the V&A is easily the best property in the country.
In terms of capital allocation, there have been various sales across the portfolios and the Growthpoint “incubated” funds are growing. This includes Growthpoint Investment Partners, Growthpoint Healthcare REIT and Growthpoint Student Accommodation. Where appropriate, the in-house trading and development division is involved.
Looking beyond our borders, Growthpoint faces the same issues as other South African groups in Nigeria, with an inability to efficiently extract capital from Lango. With the recent news that the Nigerian currency will be allowed to “float” to try and address these issues, there is likely to be short-term pain and hopefully some long-term stability with this issue.
The announcement is very light on details in the international portfolio, simply pointing shareholders to the listed results of Growthpoint Properties Australia, Globalworth Real Estate Investments and Capital & Regional. With rising rates globally, Growthpoint is focused on “optimising” the portfolio and supporting capital-light funds management strategies.
Perhaps focusing on South Africa, even with all its problems, isn’t such a bad thing after all? The grass isn’t always greener.
The weighted average tenure of rand-denominated debt (if I understood the announcement correctly) has dipped from 2.7 years to 2.6 years and the weighted average interest rate is up from 8.9% in the interim period to 9.1%. If you include cross-currency interest rate swaps and foreign-denominated loans, it drops to 6.6%.
The outlook section is where the the nasty surprise was waiting for investors, sending the price down 3.8%. Although distributable income per share is expected to show year-on-year growth in FY23, Growthpoint expects it to decrease in FY24 as the interest rate cycle really starts to bite.
Harmony releases a strong pre-close update (JSE: HAR)
Underground recovered grades will be ahead of guidance
Harmony Gold’s financial year will end in June. Ahead of that, the group has released a pre-close update to give the market an update on how the company has performed vs. guidance on key operational metrics.
Thanks to a strong performance in underground recovered grades, production will be towards the upper end of the FY23 guidance of between 1,400,000 and 1,500,000 ounces. All-in sustaining costs have remained below R900,000/kg.
If you’ve been following the company closely, you’ll know that the name Harmony Gold may not be appropriate in years to come. The group is investing heavily in copper, with projects in Australia and Papua New Guinea. This is a serious copper platform that will bring diversification to Harmony.
Labat brings in the brainpower – and a politician? (JSE: LAB)
An expert advisory board has been put together
As you probably know, Labat Africa is working on a vertically integrated medical cannabis business. To be held in high regard by important customers (I can’t help myself), the company has appointed a number of scientists, academics and medical professionals to constitute an advisory board.
The company believes that this is important in cracking export markets like Germany.
This advisory board will give Labat advice and recommendations, but the company holds the final decision-making responsibility. It’s an interesting group of people, though I’m not sure why number 15 on a list that includes many PHD-types is a former Member of Parliament with the current title of “member of the ANC” and no mention of qualifications – what does that have to do with science?
Mr Price releases annual results (JSE: MRP)
HEPS fell by 6% in the year ended 1 April 2023
This is no April Fool’s joke I’m afraid, despite when this annual period ended. Mr Price saw a drop in HEPS despite the meaty acquisition of Studio 88 that played a major role in boosting group retail sales by 18%. EBITDA was only up by 5.4%, with Mr Price blaming load shedding for ruining Christmas.
Whilst we can all agree that Eskom and The Grinch are in the same WhatsApp group, we also know that Mr Price was underprepared vs. some competitors. Simply not responding timeously to external problems or being adequately prepared for them isn’t something that the management team can get away with unscathed.
I quite enjoyed the ridiculous assertion that Mr Price’s positioning as a “value retailer” made them “conservative in back-up power investment” – so it’s ok to buy cheap clothes in the dark? These poor results are fully deserved.
Poor sales drove a highly promotional environment i.e. there were too many sales to clear stock. This hits gross margin (down 150 basis points) and working capital, with elevated inventory levels (up 18.6% at period end excluding Studio 88) until the sales are effective.
Without the acquisitions, same store sales decreased by 3.4%. This didn’t stop the group from expanding its footprint by 5.7%, excluding Studio 88. Online sales were up 1.8% excluding this acquisition.
Cash sales were only up 1.2% excluding Studio 88, with credit sales up 8.3%. Mr Price remains a cash-focused retailer (87.3% of sales) and that’s difficult in this environment.
Even the Homeware segment is taking pain, down 9.9% vs. a base period that saw growth of 6.1%. Yuppiechef seems to be the standout story, which makes sense given it’s focus on higher income customers. Mr Price paid a lot of money for that acquisition, so they really need it to work out.
The group needs to really focus on its core business now. In the past two years, they allocated R5.5 billion to acquisitions, R1.7 billion to capex and R4 billion to dividends. The heavy focus on acquisitions brings in plenty of integration risk and potential for management distraction, which is perhaps why they forgot about Eskom’s troubles.
Speaking of dividends, the payout ratio has been maintained which means that the dividend has dropped in line with earnings.
Stadio updates the market on student numbers (JSE: SDO)
The proportion of distance learning students continues to increase
At the company AGM, Stadio noted 8% growth in student numbers in the first semester of 2023. Distance learning student numbers grew by 10%, so the proportion of distance learning students is up to 86% of total student numbers.
Contact learning student numbers only grew by 2%, heavily impacted by poor growth in returning students that offset the benefit of decent growth in new students. Lower intakes in the COVID years are a factor here, so the growth in new contact students of 15% is encouraging for the next few years.
Little Bites:
Director dealings:
Associates of two directors of Ascendis Health (JSE: ASC) have acquired shares in the company worth R964k.
The CEO of Spear REIT (JSE: SEA) has bought shares for his family worth R88k
Castleview (JSE: CVW) has a large market cap and almost no liquidity, as it has been used for a reverse listing of controlling shares in other local funds (Emira and Transcend) by the major shareholders. The group confirmed its NAV per share as at March 2023, coming in at 855.38 cents. The current share price is R7.10. The final dividend is 16.01 cents a share.
Is Bidvest (JSE: BVT) getting closer to a bigger play for Adcock Ingram (JSE: AIP)? Bidvest has increased its stake to 56.13%, perhaps inspired by a genuine colds and flu season that can only be helpful for Adcock Ingram’s earnings.
In good news for Oceana (JSE: OCE), the company announced that the FSCA has closed its investigation into whether any persons at the company published false, misleading or deceptive statements about the financial performance. The outcome of the investigation is that no contraventions were identified, so there are no enforcement steps.
Southern Sun (JSE: SSU) has repurchased 3.3% of its outstanding shares for an average price of R4.20. That’s a bit below the current market price, but not by much. Of the general authority granted at the AGM in September 2022, there is still 13.3% of outstanding shares remaining. In other words, the company can do far more repurchases if the balance sheet allows.
The messy business rescue process at PSV Holdings (JSE: PSV) is still underway, with many legal documents flying up and down. It sounds like there may be some progress in the next two months, reading through all the drama. I can never find the website for this company anymore, hence I haven’t linked the name.
If you hold a meaningful stake in Richemont (JSE: CFR), you may want to speak to your broker about the highly technical withholding tax reclaim announcement that was released by the company.
Growthpoint intends to ask shareholders to vote on the issue of 20 million shares (0.6%) to the company’s flagship corporate social investment initiative, the CSI Trust, to further increase its B-BBEE credentials. The shares, currently held as treasury shares by subsidiary Growthpoint Management Services, would be sold to the Trust at R12.50 per share, financed by way of a loan in the amount of R250 million. According to the company, the Trust would become a valuable source of perpetual funding for Growthpoint’s social impact projects. Aside from shareholder approval the scheme also needs sanction from the B-BBEE Commission.
Following a cautionary announcement earlier this month, Afrimat has now announced the acquisition of Lafarge South Africa from Holcim Group subsidiary Caricement. The acquisition has been structured as a locked box transaction with effect from 31 December 2022 for US$6 million payable in cash. In addition, Afrimat will repay shareholder loans of R900 million with R500 million payable immediately and the rest over a 12-month period. The acquisition will expand Afrimat’s current national footprint and products, driving efficiencies in the construction materials segment.
Sasol and long-term strategic partner Topsoe, a Danish decarbonisation technology company, intend to establish a 50/50 Joint Venture to develop sustainable aviation fuel solutions (SAF). The JV will develop, build, own and operate ventures producing SAF based on Sasol’s Fischer Tropsch technology and Topsoe’s relevant SAF technologies.
FirstRand’s corporate and investment bank, RMB, has partnered with Sturdee Energy to help grow the business in the southern African renewables energy sector. The equity funding will give the business the ability to further build out its immediate pipeline of 175MW and position it to deliver flexible power purchase agreements.
Unlisted Companies
Zoie Health, a digital health platform using technology to provide holistic healthcare benefits, has closed a pre-seed extension funding round. The round was led by 4DX Ventures with participation from impact investor E Squared Investments. With the funding, Zoie Health plans to grow Africa’s first digital women’s health clinic by increasing the product offering and scaling to new regions on the continent.
Actis, the UK-headquartered global investment firm focused on the private equity, energy, infrastructure, and real estate asset classes, has agreed to sell BTE Renewables to Engie and Meridiam for a total enterprise value of US$1 billion. BTE Renewables is a local renewable energy company, with an operating portfolio of nearly 500 MW of wind and solar PV projects in South Africa and Kenya. In terms of the deal, Engie will acquire the SA portfolio and team while Meridiam will acquire the Kenyan portfolio and team.
Solar energy asset financier Yellow has raised US$14 million in series B funding to scale its operations in Africa in a round led by Convergence Partners. The investment will be used to leverage more debt finance to expand its customer base offering finance for smartphones and solar systems.
As part of its capital optimisation strategy, Investec Ltd acquired on the open market a further 609,989 Investec Plc shares at an average price of 461 pence per share (LSE and BATS Europe) and 315,503 Investec Plc shares at an average price of R109.81 per share (JSE).
In line with the company’s policy to maintain the number of treasury shares below 10%, Glencore has advised shareholders that it has cancelled 100 million treasury shares.
Industrials REIT which has a secondary listing on the JSE will, following the scheme of arrangement announced in April by a fund managed by Blackstone, delist from the JSE on 27th June 2023.
Resource Generation’s secondary listing on the JSE was suspended in October 2020 due to non-compliance with the Listing Requirements. According to an announcement by the JSE, the company has failed to take adequate action to enable it to reinstate the company’s listing and as such will be removed from July 3, 2023.
A number of companies listed on one of South Africa’s Stock Exchanges have initiated share buyback programmes and each week update shareholders. They are:
Southern Sun has repurchased 48,841,627 shares at an average price per share of R4.20 for an aggregate value of R205,1 million. The repurchase was funded from available cash resources. The company now hold 100 million treasury shares representing 6.8% of the company’s issued share capital.
Adcock Ingram has cumulatively repurchased 8,108,862 ordinary shares from shareholders representing 4.8% of the company’s issued share capital. The shares were repurchased for a total value of R416,8 million. Following the repurchase the company holds 16,922,821 treasury shares.
Investec’s share repurchase programme has been renewed and commenced on May 30. The programme will end on or before September 29. This week 289,998 shares were repurchased at an average price per share of R109.32. Since November 21 ,2022, the company has repurchased 11,490,575 shares at a cost of R1,23 billion.
This week Glencore repurchased a further 16,920,000 shares for a total consideration of £78,28 million. The share repurchases form part of the second phase of the company’s existing buy-back programme.
Prosus and Naspers continued with their open-ended share repurchase programmes. During the period 12-16 June 2023, a further 2,484,946 Prosus shares were repurchased for an aggregate €169,1 million and a further 326,922 Naspers shares for a total consideration of R1,03 billion.
Two companies issued profit warnings this week: Sephaku and PPC and two companies issued or withdrew a cautionary notice: Clientèle and PSV.
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