In this episode of Ghost Stories, Nico Katzke (Head of Portfolio Solutions at Satrix) joined me to unpack a wide variety of investment topics.
There is something in here for literally everyone, with numerous insights available to you in this detailed discussion.
We covered topics like:
A brief overview of why 2022 was so hard for investors.
The difference between growth and value investing, explained in a way you likely haven’t heard before.
The VIX and the DXY and why these market metrics are useful in practice.
The disappointment of gold over this period.
Equity investing in the context of higher rates in the market, both over the short- and long-term.
Being careful of the growth component that is found in most leading indices.
The relative outlook for value vs. growth.
Artificial Intelligence as a theme and the potential disruption of Google.
Achieving real diversification through suitable portfolio allocation.
The importance of consistently investing over a long period of time.
The misconception of active vs. passive investing and how passive should rather be thought of as “rules-based” investing.
Listen to the discussion using this podcast player:
Disclaimer Satrix Investments (Pty) Ltd is an approved financial service provider in terms of the Financial Advisory and Intermediary Services Act, No 37 of 2002 (“FAIS”). Satrix Managers (RF) (Pty) Ltd (Satrix) is a registered and approved Manager in Collective Investment Schemes in Securities. The information above does not constitute financial advice in term of FAIS. Consult your financial advisor before making an investment decision. Past performance is not indicative of future performance.
Welcome to Ghost Wrap. It’s fast. It’s fun. It’s informative.
In this week’s episode of Ghost Wrap, we cover:
Adcock Ingram has put in a great performance under tough conditions.
KAP Industrial Holdings is a case of di-worsification at the moment, with practically all the businesses struggling.
Motus released strong operating results, but keep an eye on the debt.
Tiger Brands has shown excellent pricing power, though I worry about how long consumers can keep this up for.
Quantum Foods has had its profitability destroyed by feed costs and load shedding.
Libstar’s business model doesn’t have sufficient pricing power in this environment.
Bidcorp reported exceptional numbers, reminding the market just how good the business is.
City Lodge’s results have divided the bears and bulls even further – and with good reason.
The Ghost Wrap podcast is proudly brought to you by Mazars, a leading international audit, tax and advisory firm with a national footprint within South Africa. Visit the Mazars website for more information.
HEPS is higher, but there were substantial impairments
For the year ended December 2022, AECI grew HEPS by between 12% and 18%. That’s a solid result under these economic conditions, especially with higher funding costs brought on by working capital pressures.
Importantly though, HEPS excludes the impact of impairments, which were large enough in Germany to cause EPS to drop by between 18% and 24%. There’s a new management team in place in Germany and that will hopefully improve matters.
BHP shows us what the yield curve looks like (JSE: BHG)
The company has raised $2.75 billion in debt through the US market
Large companies with debt programmes actively manage their exposure in terms of maturity dates and costs. You’ll often see bond repurchases or issuances from the largest companies in the world.
This usually isn’t notable for equity investors, unless the company is materially increasing or reducing the overall level of leverage.
From the latest BHP update, I thought it was worth including the details of the debt issuance to show you how funky the US yield curve looks at the moment. The company raised as follows:
$1bn in three-year bonds at 4.875%
$1bn in five-year bonds at 4.750%
$750m in ten-year bonds at 4.900%
I’m certainly no debt or yield curve expert, but note how three-year money is more expensive than five-year money. This is the impact of an inverted yield curve.
Buka: no deal and a suspended listing (JSE: BKI)
The owners and directors of this cash shell will have to tread carefully
Back in July 2022, Buka Investments announced the acquisition of the Socrati Group from B&B Media and Moltera Group. B&B Media is in the final stages of discussions to acquire a shoe manufacturing business that would be merged with Socrati Group.
In order to complete that transaction first, B&B Media has requested Buka Investments to put the Socrati deal on ice. This means that Buka Investments has not met the JSE requirement for a cash shell to execute a transaction within six months of that classification, so the listing has been suspended.
City Lodge’s detailed results couldn’t stop the bleeding (JSE: CLH)
The share price has lost over 12% in the past week as earnings disappointed
The market was looking for a major recovery in City Lodge’s earnings as tourists returned to our shores and business travelers ditched Zoom and got back to doing things face-to-face.
For the six months ended December 2022, average group occupancies were up from 30% to 57%. The trend is important here, with second quarter occupancies ahead of the equivalent quarter in 2019. The challenge lies in pricing, as average room rates are up 10% year-on-year but only 1% vs. 2019. This suggests that City Lodge has achieved the volume recovery through potentially unsustainable pricing.
A good news story is food and beverage revenue, with the group putting in a proper effort to become more than just a bed for tired business people. Food and beverage revenue increased by 132% and now comprises 16% of total revenue.
The COVID business interruption claim was received in this period. To give it context, the claim was R27 million and EBITDAR was R304 million. That “R” isn’t a typo by the way – EBITDAR is a standard metric in the hotel industry and removes rent costs from operating profit.
Here’s another important number: the cost of generators in this period was a whopping R7 million vs. just R0.9 million in the prior period. This doesn’t help the profit performance.
Salaries and wages were up 43%, but there was a substantial salary sacrifice in the comparable period with 30% salary reductions. This explains the year-on-year move. The utilities bill is up 25%, a function of inflation and higher occupancies.
The company reported profit of R97.9 million in this period vs. a loss of R33.8 million in the prior period. This means that the COVID claim contributed 27.5% of profits in the current period. I would focus on HEPS excluding that claim which is 14 cents.
Thanks to an improved balance sheet after selling off assets and reducing debt, there’s a perhaps surprising dividend of 5 cents per share for shareholders.
The share price of R4.35 is very hard to justify against interim earnings of 14 cents per share. Investors also look at net replacement value per share based on insured values of the hotels, which is R10.60 per share. Personally, I look at earnings. The cost of building something again is irrelevant if that “something” can’t deliver attractive returns.
Keep an eye on this chart:
Libstar needs more pricing power (JSE: LBR)
Revenue is higher but gross profit margins have deteriorated
In inflationary times, we quickly find out which companies have pricing power and which don’t. With Libstar helping retailers execute private label strategies as a meaningful part of its business, the company is sadly a price taker from those retailers.
We can see this clearly in the year ended December, where revenue growth was 10.7% but gross profit was only up by 3.9%. This is despite 7.7% of the growth being attributed to pricing increases (and 3% to volume growth), which tells you how severe the cost pressure on manufacturing was in this period.
The other issue is that export sales were lower, leading to an under-recovery of overhead costs. This double-whammy impact in manufacturing businesses can really bite, as the combination of volume pressure and a deteriorating gross margin can cause havoc with profitability.
Load shedding also didn’t do gross margins any favours, with R39 million in operating costs related to generators and a whopping R31 million of that amount coming through in the second half of the year. This is worrying for the current gross margin under Stage 6 load shedding.
The 3.9% increase in gross profit wasn’t enough to offset a 6.5% increase in operating costs. Although cost control was solid at Libstar, the company still saw a drop in normalised EBITDA of between 2.6% and 5.6%.
Impairments of R277 million were recognised, of which R98 million was attributed to the Denny mushroom business that suffered a fire.
Those impairments don’t impact the HEPS line, which is expected to decrease by between 8.6% and 13.6%. The share price fell 3.4% in response.
Old Mutual: read carefully (JSE: OMU)
The unbundling of 12.2% in Nedbank in 2021 makes a big difference
You know my views on “adjusted” or “normalised” earnings in general and how this term gets abused by listed companies. For some reason, Old Mutual went too far in the other direction here and made very little effort to highlight a critical adjustment that is justifiable.
In a trading statement for the year ended December, profit from operations could as much as double based on an improved mortality experience from COVID. Although conditions have clearly improved, Old Mutual highlights persistency (customers continuing to pay premiums) as a worry, as consumers are under so much pressure.
Adjusted HEPS will be up between 7% and 27% and in this case, the adjustment has to do with the number of shares in the calculation and the exclusion of earnings in Zimbabwe. As reported, HEPS is up between 0% and 20%.
But the adjustment I care about is the unbundling of the 12.2% stake in Nedbank in 2021. That stake contributed R646 million of the R5.4 billion of adjusted headline earnings in the prior period, so it was a huge contributor.
If the impact of Nedbank is excluded, adjusted headline earnings would be between 23% and 43% higher. You just have to read the announcement very carefully to know this.
HEPS drops sharply at Royal Bafokeng Platinum (JSE: RBP)
The joy of cyclical mining groups is on display once again
For the year ended December, HEPS at Royal Bafokeng Platinum fell by a rather ugly 48.2%. Ouch.
The company attributes this to a number of factors and most of them sound internal, like operational issues at Styldrift and a higher income tax expense. Inflation at the mines is also running ahead of CPI, which doesn’t help much.
The share price has dropped 11.5% in the past year. The bidding war between Impala Platinum and Northam Platinum over the company has helped shield the share price from a much greater drop. In case you don’t believe me, here’s a chart of Royal Bafokeng vs. its potential suitors:
Spur feels “cautiously optimistic” (JSE: SUR)
These are meaty numbers, achieved despite consumers being under such pressure
Spur’s results for the six months ended December 2022 are obviously being measured against a base period that was absolutely ruined by COVID. It’s not surprising to see big year-on-year growth numbers.
To ground us in reality before getting into details, diluted HEPS in the six months to December 2019 was 124.9 cents. In the latest period, it was 136.65 cents. This puts Spur ahead of pre-pandemic levels, but HEPS is up only 9.4% in total over three years. It certainly hasn’t been a happy period even before we take into account the absolute disaster that was the pandemic itself.
As reported though, the year-on-year numbers like revenue up 35%, diluted HEPS up 198.5% and the interim dividend per share up 67.3% are all exciting. I would take note of how the dividend growth has trailed earnings growth and the message this sends about management’s confidence in these conditions.
Spur is “cautiously optimistic” going forward, with a warning given in the outlook regarding disposable income among consumers. Importantly, the balance sheet is ungeared. This means that there is no debt, which is a great position for a restaurant group to be in.
Steinhoff jumps 13.3% after a trading update (JSE: SNH)
And truly, I have no idea why
Steinhoff continues to confuse me. I think it’s worthless and the market now thinks it is worth 34 cents per share. I guess time will tell.
In a trading update for the first quarter of the year, the group disclosed a 14% increase in revenue. Pepco Group is the shining star, up 22% for the quarter. Mattress Firm was anything but firm, with a 14% drop in constant currency revenue. It’s little wonder that the IPO was pulled, even though Steinhoff blamed market conditions for that issue. I don’t care how good the conditions are, an IPO won’t be a happy experience when revenue has dropped like that.
I just hope that anyone buying shares at the moment has read the terms of the proposed capital restructuring very carefully.
Little Bites:
Director dealings:
RBFT Investments, an associate of a director of Salungano (JSE: SLG), has bought shares worth nearly R6m. There is still plenty of appetite to buy more, with the company looking for up to R84m worth of shares in the open market, as explained here.
Worryingly, David McAlpin (who runs the Nutun business in Transaction Capital) has sold another big chunk of shares in Transaction Capital (JSE: TCP), this time worth R4.2m.
An associate of a director of Huge Group (JSE: HUG) has bought shares worth R116k.
DRA Global (JSE: DRA) has been notified of a claim by Andrew Naude for breach of employment causing a loss of present and future income. The amount has been quantified as over $9 million. Naude served as CEO of DRA Global until stepping down in 2022.
If you’re a shareholder in Advanced Health (JSE: AVL), you’ll want to know that the circular dealing with the proposed disposal of PresMed in Australia has been released. This is a Category 1 transaction, so the circular goes into plenty of detail about the transaction. You’ll find it here.
Impala Platinum (JSE: IMP) has once again had to extend the closing date of its offer to Royal Bafokeng Platinum (JSE: RBP) shareholders. The closing date is now 31 March.
There’s a new independent executive director appointment at Transcend Residential Property Fund (JSE: TPF). I usually ignore non-exec appointments, but this one is interesting as the director is active in the corporate finance advisory industry. This points to potential corporate actions coming at the fund.
After the unwind of the B-BBEE transaction, Remgro (JSE: REM) holds 80.22% of the shares in RCL Foods (JSE: RCL) and MandG Investment (that is the correct spelling) holds 5.24%. Like a fluffy toy being cuddled by a kid, this share register is tightly held.
Luxe Holdings (JSE: LUX) continues to be a hot potato on the JSE, with Merchantec Capital resigning as the Sponsor. The announcement doesn’t give any indication of who the replacement Sponsor will be.
If you’re looking for great insights into the Budget Speech, this is the right place. In this article, I set out what I learnt from the TreasuryONE Budget Conference. You’ll also find the video recording of the entire event.
Load shedding. Transnet. The rand. These are the headline-grabbers that cause grey hairs for most South Africans and especially for business executives and entrepreneurs.
With the budget speech now out in the wild, we have a view on government’s latest fiscal policies. TreasuryONE hosted an excellent panel discussion on this topic that I had the pleasure of watching on Thursday morning. I thought I would share some of my key takeouts before giving you the opportunity to watch the discussion yourself.
We did well during the pandemic
As a country, the pandemic was relatively kind to us. We didn’t print crazy amounts of money. We spent less than many other countries and the commodity cycle was great for South Africa, with commodities like coal and PGMs pulling us out of trouble.
The reduced pressure on our interest bill after such a strong period is really helping us with navigating the current global climate.
We score a lot of own goals
Kumba Iron Ore. Thungela. If you’ve been reading the recent updates from these companies, you’ll know that Transnet is severely hindering our exports. In the Unlock the Stock event that I co-hosted later in the day on Thursday, the CEO of Afrimat highlighted that even the commodities being consumed domestically are being severely impacted, so it’s not just the export lines.
During the TreasuryONE panel discussion, it was estimated that we’ve lost up to R100 billion in coal export opportunities because of Transnet. To make it worse, our road infrastructure isn’t coping with the additional load that should be running on our railways.
The great balance sheet roll-up continues
For years now, we’ve been dealing with failing (or failed) SOEs and moving their debt onto the fiscal balance sheet. Bluntly, taxpayers suffer when companies like SAA lose a fortune.
Eskom dwarfs all these issues, with R254 billion worth of debt being moved onto the country’s balance sheet over three years. This is a necessary step to reduce risk of an Eskom default and related cross-defaults. It allows for more funding to go into maintenance and diesel rather than interest payments.
The debt alleviation comes with a strict set of conditions. But as was pointed out by political analyst Songezo Zibi during the panel discussion, what actually happens if Eskom doesn’t meet the conditions? It’s not as though government will switch the entire country off… not by choice, anyway!
Are the winds of change blowing?
Overall, the mood of the panel was that this was a less populist budget than we might have seen in recent years. Government is reigning in public sector wage spending and is pursuing policies aimed at encouraging investment, not consumption. There was no mention at all of NHI, land reform or nationalisation of the Reserve Bank.
Are we seeing a significant shift in policy here?
There are incentives in place for solar, so the government is trying to address the energy crisis. Although the incentive for individuals was a little soft, the business incentives are strong. Of course, what would really help is if people could effectively sell back into the grid. Cape Town will be the test case for that!
One area where government recognised the needs of the voter base was in the fuel levy, which hasn’t had an increase for the second year running. Together with diesel rebate initiatives, this helps with managing food inflation.
But be careful…
Debt to GDP is forecast to be higher than in the 2022 Medium-Term Budget Policy Statement (MTBPS), a direct result of the large chunk of Eskom debt moving onto the fiscal balance sheet. The difference vs. the MTBPS is 360 basis points at the peak debt to GDP ratio in 2025/26.
The trouble is that the economic growth forecasts used by Treasury are higher than those used by the SARB. It’s not clear whether Treasury has fully considered the impact of current levels of load shedding.
The other issue is that commodity prices have tapered off from pandemic levels. Commodities are notoriously cyclical, so assuming growth off the pandemic revenue base is brave.
GDP is ahead of pre-COVID levels but employment is down 4% – 5% and investment is 12% lower. This is a recipe for danger.
And finally, the biggest positive of all
Unlike so many other countries in the world that are in difficult economic circumstances, we still enjoy one critical element of our beloved country: free press.
In what turned out to be Andre de Ruyter’s exit interview, we saw that shining through.
Facts are facts, and while they can be dressed up or down, they reflect the naked truth – dealmaking in South Africa is in steady decline. All but for a slight correction in 2021, due to the release of deals delayed by pandemic lockdowns, the effect of the political and energy related woes faced by ‘SA Inc’ on investor confidence is clearly seen in the number of local M&A deals captured for 2022 – down 7% on the numbers recorded in 2020 and that at the height of the COVID-19 pandemic! The start of 2023 offers insight as to what is to be expected – only four deals were announced during January, this compared with the 26 announced in January the previous year.
The take private of Mediclinic International, shortlisted for the Brunswick DealMakers Deal of the Year 2022, was the largest deal by value for 2022 at £2,05bn (R41,8bn). Gold Fields’ unsuccessful acquisition of Canadian Yamana Gold would have taken top spot at R103bn. The fact that, of the top 10 deals by value for 2022, only three were by SA companies, speaks to the decline in dealmaking in the listed space.
50% of deals used for league table purposes in 2022 fell into three categories. Deals in the Real Estate sector dominated representing 21% of the deals recorded valued at R93,6bn followed by Resources & Energy at 15% (this sector was the highest by value at R203,5bn). Tech deals represented 14% of transactions recorded valued at R39bn.
Behind the scenes – in what DealMakers categorises as general corporate finance activity, companies focused on value creation for shareholders by undertaking share repurchase programmes (R265,9bn versus R115,3bn in 2021) and the distribution of special dividends and unbundlings (R464,2bn versus R63bn in 2021) – most notable being the unbundling by Rand Merchant Investment of its stakes in Momentum, Metropolitan and Discovery, and PSG Group’s distribution of its stakes in its listed portfolio (also shortlisted for Deal of the Year 2022). For the most part, the uptick in the number of listings recorded reflects the growing number (19) of secondary listings undertaken by JSE-listed companies on A2X. But part of the picture is also the increased opportunities now available for domestic investors in the form of new disrupters and innovators.
Private equity continues to be an important driver in the dealmaking space across the continent. In South Africa, two sizeable transactions were recorded: Digital Realty’s acquisition of a majority interest in Teraco Data Environments (R56bn), and the exit by Actis and Mainstream from Lekela Power (R25bn) – the 2022 winner of the DealMakers Private Equity Award.
Given that more than 50% of adults in sub-Saharan Africa remain unbanked, the scope for investment in the fintech space is compelling, and as this number decreases, so the number of opportunities will grow.
Also on the radar of institutional investors are the venture capital alternative investment asset class – although the tough macroeconomic environment and associated rising interest rates will likely curb fundraising outcomes.
The winners of the platinum medal subjective awards are as follows:
Ince Individual DealMaker of the Year
(L-R) Arie Maree (Ansarada), Marylou Greig (DealMakers), Johan Holtzhausen (PSG Capital) and Andile Khumalo (Ince).
Brunswick Deal of the Year – Sanlam Allianz joint Venture
L-R Arie Maree (Ansarada), Iris Sibanda (Brunswick) and the local advisory teams to the deal – Standard Bank, J.P. Morgan, Webber Wentzel, Bowmans and PwC.
Exxaro BEE Deal of the Year – Shoprite Checkers’ evergreen B-BBEE transaction
Arie Marie (Ansarada), Sacha Allie (RMB), Mzila Mthenjane (Exxaro) and Warran Dukas (Shoprite).
Catalyst Private Equity Deal of the Year – Actis exit of Lekela Power
Marylou Greig (DealMakers), Arie Maree (Ansarada), David Cooke (Actis) and Michael Avery (Catalyst).
Business Rescue Transaction of the Year – CIG and CONCO
Marylou Greig (DealMakers), Arie Maree (Ansarada), Martin Liebenberg (Metis), Dean McHendrie (Birkett Stewart McHendrie), Josh Cunliffe (Metis) and Gerhard Albertyn (Metis).
2022 M&A award winners (listed companies)
The category of Investment Adviser (by deal value) was won by Standard Bank. (L-R) Arie Marie (Ansarada), Marylou Greig (DealMakers) and Khutso Manthata (Standard Bank).
The category of Investment Adviser (by deal flow) was won by Investec Bank. (L-R) Arie Marie (Ansarada), Marylou Greig (DealMakers) and Marc Ackermann (Investec Bank).
J.P. Morgan was the winner of the Sponsor category (by deal value). Olwethu Matoti, Otsile Matheba (A2X), Thembeka Mgoduso, Athi Ayabulela Noah and Thusani Tshivhase (J.P.Morgan).
The Investec team received the award for top Sponsor (by deal flow). L-R: Rob Smith, Buhle Sithole, Otsile Matheba (A2X), Masetshaba Mabaso and Monica Griessel.
Top Legal Adviser (by deal value) was won by Webber Wentzel.
Roxanna Valayathum received the award on behalf of Cliffe Dekker Hofmeyr for Top Legal Adviser (deal flow) from Marylou Greig.
The award for Transactional Support Services Adviser (by deal value) was presented to PwC. Anneke du Plessis received the award from Hoosain Karjieker (Mail & Guardian).
Nicky Theori received the award for the top Transactional Support Services Adviser (by deal flow) on behalf of BDO from Hoosain Karjieker (Mail & Guardian).
Top Legal Advisers in unlisted M&A
This is the first time awards for unlisted M&A have been awarded.
Top Legal Adviser (by deal value) in unlisted M&A went to Bowmans. Ryan Wessels accepted the award.
Top Legal Adviser (by deal flow) went to Bowmans. Lerato Thahane accepted the award.
Top BEE Advisers in 2022
DealMakers recorded 29 BEE deals during 2022 in the exchange-listed and unlisted M&A space. The top two BEE deals by value were the disposal of 40m Shoprite Checkers shares (a 5.7% stake) to the Shoprite Employee Trust and Anglo American Platinum’s replacement ESOP representing a 2% stake in Amplats to B-BBEE employees.
Irshaad Paruk accepted the award on behalf of RMB for the top BEE Adviser (by deal value) from Marylou Greig.
RMB was awarded top BEE Adviser (by deal flow). Krishna Nagar accepted the award.
Sally Hutton received the award on behalf of Webber Wentzel for top BEE Legal Adviser (by deal value).
Webber Wentzel was awarded the top BEE Legal Adviser of the Year (by deal flow). Ziyanda Ntshona accepted the award.
2022 M&A League Tables: SA advisory firms (in relation to exchange-listed companies)
*Investment Advisers include Financial Advisers and all others claiming this category.
2022 General Corporate Finance League Tables: SA advisory firms (in relation to exchange-listed companies)
*Investment Advisers include Financial Advisers and all others claiming this category.
Sable Exploration and Mining is to undertake a fully underwritten rights offer. The company will offer 52,210,464 ordinary shares, in the ratio of 12 new shares for each existing share at a price of R1 per share. The company aims to raise R52,2 million. The offer will be underwritten by James Allan, a director of the company.
Castleview Property has issued 47,839,506 shares at an issue price of R6.48 per share for an aggregate R310 million. The purpose of the issue is to build cash reserves for liquidity management purposes.
Salungano shareholders have been informed that RBFT Investments, which currently holds 18.1% of the issued shares in the group, wants to increase its shareholding and to ultimately delist the company from the JSE. RBFT proposes to acquire on the open market up to 60 million Salungano shares at R1.40 per share. RBFT Investments says the bid is an exempt partial offer and should not be construed as a general offer by RBFT.
Balwin Properties is to take a secondary listing on A2X with effect from 28 February 2023.
Capital & Counties Properties plc will trade on the JSE under its new name Shaftesbury Capital plc with effect from 9 March 2023. The share code will change from CCO to SHC and the company will remain listed in the same sector subsequent to the name change.
A number of companies listed on one of South Africa’s Stock Exchanges have initiated share buyback programmes and each week update shareholders. They are:
Finbond repurchased 45 million shares in the period 14 – 16 February 2023, representing 4.95% of the company’s issued share capital. The shares were repurchased at a price of R0.26 per share for an aggregate R11,7 million. Of the shares repurchased, 25 million will be delisted and cancelled while the remainder will be held as treasury shares which will, following the repurchase represents 9.81% of Finbond’s issued share capital.
South32 has increased its share repurchase programme by c. $50 million in anticipation of a stronger outlook for commodity prices in the second half of its financial year. This will enable the company to return $158 million to shareholders before September 2023. This week the company repurchased a further 1,119,759 shares at an aggregate cost of A$5,1 million.
Spear REIT repurchased 6,941,385 at an average price of R7.62 per share representing 2.83% of the issued ordinary share capital. The shares were repurchased during the period 1 July 2022 to 17 February 2023.
Glencore this week repurchased 11,576,699 shares for a total consideration of £59 million. The share repurchases form part of the second phase of the company’s existing buy-back programme which is expected to be completed this month.
Investec repurchased a further 909,645 Investec shares for a total consideration of R104,28 million. The shares were repurchased during the period 13 February to 17 February 2023. In addition, the company announced that it had repurchased over the period 30 November 2022 to 20 February 2023, 945,321 preference shares for R89,48 million.
Prosus and Naspers continued with their open-ended share repurchase programmes. During the period 13 to 17 February 2023, a further 2,629,344 Prosus shares were repurchased for an aggregate €74,37 million and a further 317,713 Naspers shares for a total consideration of R1,09 billion.
Seven companies issued profit warnings this week: Aveng, Discovery, Jasco Electronics, Sibanye-Stillwater, Sasfin, Choppies Enterprises and Quantum Foods.
Four companies issued or withdrew cautionary notices. The companies were: Conduit Capital, Brikor, Coronation Fund Managers and Choppies Enterprises.
DealMakers is SA’s M&A publication. www.dealmakerssouthafrica.com
Sibanye-Stillwater which has a 19.9% stake in Australian retreatment mine New Century Resources, has made an unsolicited offer to acquire the remaining stake. The reason given for the offer is that Sibanye is unhappy with the company’s strategic direction and this tailings retreatment and recycling mine fits nicely into Sibanye’s ‘circular economy’ strategy. At an offer price of A$1.10, representing a large premium, the company will pay up to A$120 million (R1,5 billion) if the deal is accepted.
Delta Property Fund’s announced deal to dispose of a property situated at the corner of CJ Langehoven and Cape Road, Gqeberha has been terminated. The sale of the property to Rivadex has been cancelled due to the purchaser’s inability to meet their obligations relating to the cash disposal consideration of R38 million.
Planet42, the car subscription startup addressing transport inequality by putting cars in the hands of people who are unable to access traditional bank credit, has raised $100 million in combined equity and debt funding. The $15 million equity round was co-led by Naspers and ARS Holdings with participation from existing and new shareholders.
Anglo American’s EBITDA is 30% off its record year (JSE: AGL)
Despite this, return on capital employed is still way above the through-the-cycle target
In a year that Anglo American will probably remember for the commissioning of the Quellaveco copper project in Peru, profitability was still fantastic even if the year-on-year story is annoying for investors. Mining companies are cyclical and 2021 was a record year, so consecutive record years was probably too much to hope for.
With production challenges in 2022, the production cost per unit didn’t go in the right direction for several commodities. Compared with a decrease in commodity prices in some cases, earnings came under pressure.
Despite a 30% drop in EBITDA, return on capital employed of 30% is way above the through-the-cycle target of 15%.
Although net debt increased to $6.9 billion as the group invested in its operations, this is still less than 0.5x underlying EBITDA, which is a manageable level.
For fun, I decided to do a long-term chart of Anglo American against competing mining giants Glencore and South32:
Blue Label rallies 5.4% as the market unpacks the story (JSE: BLU)
These earnings are about as complicated as it gets
At varsity, I remember thinking to myself: “This scenario is ridiculous, this could never happen in real life, Wits is just trying to hurt us.”
Then along came Blue Label Telecoms, with numbers that are so complicated that even Wits lecturers would be impressed.
The problem is that the management team has historically been spectacularly good at losing money for shareholders through misguided and risky transactions. Instead of sticking to the core business, they do all kinds of crazy things. One such thing was to try and resurrect Cell C, which led to a recapitalisation of that company last year. If you truly understood that deal, hats off to you.
Although Cell C has been a financial disaster throughout its life, the current strategy is probably the most sensible we’ve seen. The company is focusing on being the technology that sits between the tower infrastructure (hellishly expensive to own) and companies like Capitec that want to act as Mobile Virtual Network Operators by selling Capitec-branded airtime etc.
If you think Discovery’s numbers are all over the place in terms of normalisation numbers, these are even more intense. Core headline earnings were 3.94 cents per share for the six months ended December, unless you exclude the Cell C recapitalisation, in which case that number would be 51.72 cents.
Likewise, if you ignore several of the matches along the way, the Proteas have been world cup champions several times. Sadly, that trophy cabinet is bare, much like the core headline earnings number at Blue Label.
Here is a short story about the company’s capital allocation track record:
Discovery: where “normalised” is a stretch (JSE: DSY)
Regular readers will already know where this is going…
You may recall a recent earnings update from Discovery that asked investors to casually ignore interest rates, as apparently they have no impact on operations. With the release of results for the six months ended December 2022, Discovery continues to push this narrative.
HEPS as reported fell by 9%. But if you “normalise” those earnings, they increase by 30%. Considering that HEPS is already designed to exclude most of the usual noise found in company earnings, a swing of that magnitude between reported earnings and normalised earnings is extraordinary.
For a company that isn’t affected by interest rates, the term is used no fewer than 53 times in the interim earnings booklet. As another fun statistic, “normalised” appears 51 times. I’ll leave it to you to make your mind up about this.
Distell earnings feel the pressure (JSE: DGH)
Heineken is buying a business that will need to watch its costs carefully
Inflationary environments are tricky things. Top line growth can look great, but profitability is what matters. Some companies can increase prices ahead of inflationary pressures and others simply can’t.
In the six months ended December, Distell’s revenue was up 15.9%. That sounds great, until you see that EBITDA only increased by 0.6% thanks to energy cost pressures and supply chain costs, among other things.
Forex movements had a significant impact here. For example, if you strip them out, headline earnings increased by 8.3% vs. 3.0% as reported.
The lesson here? Be careful of assuming that every industrial/FMCG company benefits from inflation. The analysis is far more complicated than that.
Gold Fields: thank goodness for that break fee (JSE: GFI)
Even the payout ratio is above the usual range thanks to that windfall
With gold production lower and revenue taking a knock as well, this should’ve been an unpleasant period for Gold Fields. Thanks to the gorgeous break fee of $267 million from Yamana though, it was far better than would otherwise have been the case.
The break fee was actually $300 million, but $33 million had been spent on transaction costs. If you’ve ever wondered why bankers fight to get advisory mandates, now you know.
The break fee was such a boost to the balance sheet that the dividend payout ratio for the period was 47%, which is higher than the usual range of 30% to 45%.
With the break fee now in the past, the group will have to focus on the far less lucrative business of trying to get gold out of the ground. With a gold price that appears to be fully committed to inflicting pain on investors, that’s not easy.
Harmony’s earnings are higher, but… (JSE: HAR)
Be careful of the base effect here
For the six months ended December, Harmony’s production costs were between 2% and 10% higher. I’m surprised that Harmony can’t give a tighter range than that, considering that this financial period closed nearly two months ago. Nevertheless, higher underground recovered grades and modest increases in the average gold price helped offset this.
HEPS is expected to be between 10% and 30% higher than the comparable period. Before you get too excited, I must remind you that HEPS in the six months ended December 2021 (i.e. the comparable period) had fallen by 65%. There’s definitely a base effect at play here.
Still, the company expects to achieve its production and cost guidance for the full year. That’s a bit of good news.
Momentum Metropolitan lives up to the name (JSE: MTM)
Earnings look much better in the latest period
For the six months ended December, Momentum Metropolitan expects normalised HEPS to be between 40% and 55% higher.
This solid outcome was driven by the normalisation of the mortality experience in a post-COVID world, as well as improved investment returns. Most of the business operations were positive contributors in this period, other than Momentum Insure which the company notes had a challenging period.
Mondi signs off on a monster year (JSE: MNP)
Cyclical businesses print cash under the right conditions
In the year ended December, Mondi achieved incredible numbers if you exclude the Russian operations. That’s obviously a simplification of note, but you can’t exactly blame Mondi for what happened there.
Without Russia, group revenue increased by 28% and operating profit jumped by 85%. The numbers get even prettier the further down you look, with profit before tax up 119%.
Even including Russia, HEPS increased by 70% year-on-year. This was a massive year for Mondi.
The dividend is only 8% higher than last year, which tells you a lot about how cautious a cyclical business needs to be.
You can see the severe drop in the share price as the conflict broke out in Ukraine, a drop that Mondi is still trying to recover from:
Quantum Foods is now loss-making (JSE: QFH)
This environment is terrible for eggs
Here are the two numbers you need to know from Quantum Foods: in the four months ended January, egg selling prices increased by just 3.9% and feed costs were 25.7% higher. You don’t need an A for maths to realise that this is a major problem. The egg business is expected to report significant losses for the six months ending March.
Across the rest of the business, load shedding is a huge issue. Quantum’s energy costs are up by more than 42% thanks to the need for generators and associated diesel costs.
Probably the only good news at the moment is that Quantum didn’t have to deal with avian flu. We shouldn’t jinx it.
The balance sheet is healthy, which is just as well when the company expects to report a loss for this period. This is despite achieving positive EBITDA, although we don’t know how positive that line in the financials will be.
The net profit is what matters anyway. It will be burning bright red for the six months to March.
Deloitte settles with Tongaat Hulett (JSE: TON)
The auditors are making this problem go away
Without admitting any guilt, Deloitte has agreed to pay R260 million to Tongaat Hulett to settle claims linked to Deloitte’s audit of the company between 2012 and 2018.
The Business Rescue Practitioners have decided to accept the settlement and move on. This makes sense, given Tongaat’s broader balance sheet pressures.
I have no idea what Deloitte’s fees would’ve been over that period, but it would be fascinating to compare the two numbers.
Meanwhile, the date for the publication of the Business Rescue Plan has been extended to 28 February.
Truworths’ earnings are higher, but watch the cash (JSE: TRU)
Thedividend payout ratio has come down in this period
You can tell quite a lot from the dividend payout ratio, actually. When management is confident, they tend to pay higher dividends. When conditions are tricky or the business is proving to be cash hungry, the payout ratio is moderated.
In the 26 weeks ended 1 January 2023, the revenue and gross margin story at Truworths was very promising. At a time when some competitors went backwards, Truworths grew sales by 13.1% and maintained gross margin at around 53.5%.
Despite this, EBIT only increased by 5.6%. This tells us that there were pressures in operating costs, with operating margin falling from 26.5% to 24.7%. If you dig further into the results, you’ll see that bad debts were a contributor here, which is worrying for the credit retailers.
HEPS increased by 10.3% and the interim dividend was only 6.7% higher, which is where the lower payout ratio is visible. A driver of this might have been the sharp drop in cash generated from operations, which fell from R2.8 billion to R1.7 billion despite the increase in earnings.
To find the source of the cash pressure, you need to go to note 14 in the financials, where you’ll see that aside from investment in inventory, the pressure is from a higher investment in trade receivables i.e. credit sales to customers:
The Truworths share price is up 13.6% this year, as value investors climbed into this retailer that was trading on a modest multiple.
Little Bites:
Director dealings:
As a Transaction Capital (JSE: TCP) shareholder, it’s not great seeing David McAlpin (who runs the all-important Nutun business, previously called Transaction Capital Risk Services) selling shares worth over R5.2m.
Adv. JD Wiese (a non-executive director of Invicta and Christo Wiese’s son) bought preference shares in the company worth R430k (JSE: IVTP),
Family members of the CEO of Spear REIT (JSE: SEA) have acquired shares worth roughly R116k.
A director of Dipula Income Fund (JSE: DIB) has acquired shares worth R82.4k.
A director of Kaap Agri (JSE: KAL) has bought shares worth R76.6k.
Directors of Nictus (JSE: NCS) have bought shares worth around R30k.
As part of broader director appointments, the managing partner of Sanlam Private Equity (Paul Moeketsi) has been appointed to the board of Life Healthcare (JSE: LHC). I never ignore private equity appointments to a board.
If you are a shareholder in Redefine Properties (JSE: RDF), you’ll want to flick through the pre-close presentation available at this link.
Altron’s (JSE: AEL) sale of its ATM hardware and support business is taking longer than planned, with regulatory approval from the Namibia Competition Commission still outstanding.
In bad news for Delta Property Fund (JSE: DLT), the intended sale of the Cape Road property for R38 million has been cancelled as the purchaser couldn’t put the money together.
A director of Sable Exploration and Mining (JSE: SXM) has agreed to follow his rights for R3.67 million and underwrite a further R2.48 million worth of shares. The company is looking to raise R52.2 million in total.
Choppies (JSE: CHP) renewed its cautionary announcement linked to the potential acquisition of 100% in a Botswana based FMCG company.
Trematon’s (JSE: TMT) disposal of the Woodstock Hub property has been determined as fair by the independent expert, so the R16.25 million deal will go ahead.
The plans by I Group Investments to use the Castleview Property Fund (JSE: CVW) vehicle as a listed shell are continuing, with a specific issue of shares to related parties of R310 million.
In the week of the one-year anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, it is worth pondering the impact this event has had on the global economy and how it is likely to play out in the future. Chris Gilmour digs in.
Without wishing to labour the point, and without indulging in whataboutism, let me be clear that I view Russia’s invasion as being an act of naked aggression that goes entirely against all norms of a rules-based society. And if Russia succeeds in Ukraine, that won’t be the end of the story. Far from it. Moldova, Romania and Poland will be next, regardless of their EU/Nato membership.
To be sure, the Americans have no doubt gotten involved in similar atrocities over the years, such as their involvement in the Balkans, Iraq and Libya to name but a few, but the economic repercussions were relatively contained. This doesn’t make Russia’s involvement any more palatable, however, as two wrongs don’t make a right.
It has been said that when war comes, the first casualty is the truth. And that is very true, from a variety of perspectives. There can be little doubt that Vladimir Putin firmly believes his own rhetoric when he talks about re-incorporating Ukraine into the greater Russia, regardless of the fact that Ukraine has been a sovereign country ever since the fall of the USSR.
Already, this campaign has claimed many lives on both sides.
Russia does not disclose casualties but the Armed Forces of Ukraine estimate that approximately 135,000 Russian soldiers have been killed so far. Ordinarily, this would be regarded as a massive setback for any country, until one realises where those casualties are concentrated amongst the Russian forces. These are not primarily soldiers from Moscow or St Petersburg, but tend to be conscripts from faraway areas of the Russian Federation such as Chechnya for example. Recently, these forces have been augmented by The Wagner Group of mercenaries, which in turn have been recruiting troops from Russian prisons.
Russia, like China and Japan, is suffering from de-population. As a direct consequence of the Lewis Turning Point, there physically aren’t enough people in the country to keep the economy ticking over, nevermind losing them on the battlefield. The stories of Ukrainian children being abducted and taken back to Russia are not just urban legend. This is one of the few ways left for Russia to try to reverse its current de-population trend and only time will tell if it has succeeded.
The one factor that has astonished western military experts about this whole campaign is the relative ineffectiveness of the Russian armed forces. A year ago, most experts would have given Ukraine virtually no chance against the big bad Russian bear. But within days, it became glaringly obvious that the Russian military wasn’t even close to the might of the old Red Army that trundled into Hungary in 1956 and Czechoslovakia in 1968. This is a hollowed-out version that lacks basic logistics capabilities, that has yawning gaps in its non-commissioned officer ranks and where motivation levels among recruits is exceedingly low. Putting these and other factors together adds up to a dismal cocktail.
And yet, Putin keeps throwing ever more manpower against Ukraine. His empty threats regarding nuclear retaliation carry even less weight than they did when first he first uttered them a few months ago. The west realises that he’s just bluffing. But eventually there will come a point where Russia physically runs out of people in the necessary demographic to maintain its presence in Ukraine. That point is perhaps not too far off now.
If this hypothesis is correct, and Ukraine starts making noticeable incremental territorial gains during the spring and summer, we can reasonably expect desperate counter-measures from the Russians. These may include the use of chemical weapons and so-called “dirty bombs”- ordnance wrapped around small pieces of radioactive material.
There is no room for negotiation on either side. Ukraine is determined to have its territory back to pre-2014 levels and is not prepared to discuss the matter. It is particularly keen to have the Crimean Peninsula back. The Russians are equally determined not to give an inch. However, if enough pressure can be brought to bear on Russia in the form of economic sanctions coupled with crushing defeat on the battlefield, it will have no choice but to retreat.
Throughout its long history, Russia has gone to war with many nations, which is hardly surprising, considering its extensive land mass that borders many other countries. And its track record in these wars is not inspiring, other than in World War 2, when it came back after losing many millions on the battlefield to defeat Nazi Germany on the Eastern Front. Russia/the USSR has been beaten in many wars over the centuries. It is not and never has been invulnerable. For the sake of a long-lasting peace, it is important that Russia is soundly defeated in Ukraine.
This article reflects the views and opinions of its author, Chris Gilmour.
AngloGold tanks 7% on a rough day for mining (JSE: ANG)
I’m so glad that I cut my gold exposure a few weeks ago
I’ve given up on gold. After the rally at the start of the year, I decided to recycle my capital into more lucrative investments, like collecting leafblowers or vintage vacuum cleaners. I’m now convinced that almost anything is a better choice than gold miners.
With another horrible day on the market for these miners and a 7% drop at AngloGold after releasing results, nothing here is proving me wrong.
Despite gold production increasing by 11% in 2022 and all-in sustaining costs per ounce only increasing by 2%, adjusted EBITDA was lower. Why? Because the gold price just refuses to do well in a rising rates environment. It has failed as an inflation hedge and gold has limited utility outside of inflation hedging and jewellery.
The positive element to this story lies in free cash flow, which looks much better year-on-year.
I have no regrets in exiting this industry.
Bidcorp: food service is lucrative (JSE: BID)
The share price has gained another 2% after results were released
The food service industry is a beautiful thing. Restaurants, hotels and even hospitals aren’t going to send someone to the shops to go and buy supplies and ingredients. Instead, they let companies like Bidcorp do the hard work.
This puts Bidcorp at the perfect point in the value chain – literally the shovel in the restaurant gold rush. Restaurants come and go, but Bidcorp doesn’t. The same is true for Sysco ($SYY), the North American equivalent to Bidcorp. We’ve researched this company in Magic Markets Premium, a research platform that you can access at a really affordable rate.
Bidcorp is more than just a restaurant supplier. Only 42% of revenue is from hotels and restaurants, with a further 12% from fast food joints. Other major segments include butcheries, caterers, other wholesalers and healthcare providers.
Another important thing to know about Bidcorp is that the company offers genuinely global exposure to investors, with a small percentage of group revenue (5%) generated in South Africa. As rand hedges go, this is a goodie.
The market knows how good the business is, which is why it trades at such a high multiple that any slowdown in earnings growth gets punished with significant volatility:
Of course, the pandemic drove a massive drop in the share price. Hindsight is perfect, as this would’ve been a good choice to jump into. Recent momentum is sharply upwards and I always get nervous buying a chart like that. Huge climbs tend to correct themselves and consolidate.
Looking at the six months ended December, earnings look fantastic with revenue up 28.1% and HEPS up 45.5%. Cash generated from operations increased by 35.6%. This is why the market has gotten excited.
The “laggard” in this result was the Emerging Markets segment, which includes China that was heavily impacted by lockdowns in this period. Even in that segment, revenue grew 10.2% and trading profit was up 13%. The reopening in China has been part of the recent share price momentum, though it’s worth highlighting that China is also a relatively small contributor to group revenue.
The biggest part of the business actually sits in the UK (25%) and Australia (16%).
Though I would be wary of buying the recent jump, this is one of the ways on the JSE to truly give your money a passport.
Choppies expects a major drop in earnings (JSE: CHP)
Volumes are down and competitors are squeezing Choppies on price
In grocery retail, inflation can either help you or kill you. It all depends on the ability to increase prices, which in turn depends on product quality and the resilience of the customer base.
A less differentiated retailer can get into trouble in these conditions, especially when focusing on lower income consumers who are exceptionally price sensitive.
Choppies has suffered a drop in volumes as a direct result of stiff competition in a tough environment. Pricing increases couldn’t mitigate this impact, which is further proof that Choppies has little ability to hang on to customers for any reason other than price competitiveness.
For the six months ended December, HEPS is expected to be between 29% and 39% lower. Chopped, indeed.
Coronation puts a number on the tax dispute (JSE: CML)
Destination: Constitutional Court
Coronation’s market cap is R10.8 billion. The tax dispute with SARS is estimated to be worth between R800 million and R900 million, based on a decade’s worth of profits being attacked.
That’s not terminal for the company by any means, but it is terminal for the interim dividend.
The fight isn’t over yet. Coronation is going to apply to the Constitutional Court for leave to appeal against the Supreme Court of Appeal judgment.
Although it’s been on a rollercoaster ride this year, the share price is marginally higher year-to-date. Longer term performance is ugly, with a 60% drop over five years.
Grindrod continues to grow strongly (JSE: GND)
Although HEPS is up substantially, the market perhaps wanted more
A share price is all about expectations. A share price movement is all about the difference between reality and those expectations. With a 2.5% drop in the price after releasing a trading statement, it seems that the market was hoping for a bit more from Grindrod.
For the year ended December, HEPS will be up between 37% and 43%. Detailed results are due on 2nd March.
After a sharp increase during 2022, the share price seems to have run out of gas:
Sasfin keeps disappointing (JSE: SFN)
In a year that was amazing for banks, Sasfin missed out
If you really don’t like money, you could consider being a long-term investor in Sasfin. Over three years, you would’ve made a whopping 4% in total (plus dividends). In the past year, when other banks have been flying, you would be flat.
In a trading statement for the six months ended December, HEPS is down between 16.8% and 24.7% vs. restated earnings. The restatement had a huge impact on prior period earnings, making them much higher than previously reported.
Not a single Sasfin share changed hands despite the update coming out at 4pm, so that probably tells you everything you need to know.
Standard Bank waves its flag once more (JSE: SBK)
As has been the trend in (most) local banks, earnings are up
In the year ended December, Standard Bank benefitted from the major trends that I’ve been highlighting as bullish for banks: inflation (hence larger balance sheets at corporates and even individuals) and significantly higher interest rates.
We aren’t at the point yet where interest rates are really hurting the credit loss ratio, so banks are performing beautifully (Sasfin excluded).
This trading statement doesn’t give us many details, but we know that HEPS for the year is up between 30% and 35%. Detailed results are due on 9th March.
Little Bites:
Director dealings:
A director of Old Mutual (JSE: OMU) bought shares worth nearly R15k.
Directors of ultra-obscure company Nictus (JSE: NCS) bought shares worth R1.75k.
Kibo Energy (JSE: KBO) sent out a notice for an Extraordinary General Meeting, as the company wants to give the directors the authority to issue a lot of new shares as part of the company’s growth strategy.
Jasco Electronics (JSE: JSC) released results for the six months ended December. It was a very unhappy period in which revenue fell by 14% and the group swung from a profit of R4.7 million to a loss of R23.8 million. The situation is tense, as the company has breached its loan covenants with the Bank of China. CIH is looking to take the group private, so Jasco is likely to leave our market anyway.
Hammerson Plc (JSE: HMN) has had to restate its 2021 financial results based on an accounting interpretation of forgiveness of rental payments during Covid. The property fund’s earnings for FY21 have been restated from £80.9 million to £65.5 million. The change in policy will have a positive impact on FY22 earnings, so watch out for a significant positive year-on-year swing from this change.
The Competition and Markets Authority (CMO) in the UK has approved the merger of Capital & Counties Properties (JSE: CCO) and Shaftesbury without conditions.
As part of an incredibly complicated sequence of events, Safari Investments (JSE: SAR) shareholders will be asked to vote on the company repurchasing a large number of shares for a total price of R311 million. With a market cap of only R1.8 billion, this is big.
Famous Brands (JSE: FBR) has concluded its transaction to buy property from the group founders for R181 million.
Homechoice (JSE: HIL) is highly illiquid, so I’ve included the trading statement under Little Bites as you would have to make many little bites to build up any kind of position. For the year ended December 2022, HEPS grew by between 30% and 50%. The bid-offer spread is wider than the average highway, so good luck with trading this one.
If you happen to be a Trustco (JSE: TTO) shareholder and would like all the details on the accounting restatements that were necessary after the company lost its dispute with the JSE, then refer to the trading statement that was issued on Wednesday. The net asset value (NAV) per share is much higher in the latest numbers, with the share trading at a large discount to NAV anyway.
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