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Ghost Bites (Equites | Industrials REIT | Karoooo | Quantum Foods | Sibanye | Steinhoff | Vukile)

The Finance Ghost
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Ghost Bites (Equites | Industrials REIT | Karoooo | Quantum Foods | Sibanye | Steinhoff | Vukile)

Equites joins Redefine in the property naughty corner (JSE: EQU)

A sell-off in the share price greeted the news of a nasty drop in net asset value per share

Sentiment in the property sector isn’t great at the moment. Property valuations are under pressure in this environment and that’s not good for the share prices, which are usually valued on a combination of yield and a reference to net asset value (NAV) per share.

After Redefine released results that upset the market, Equites Property Fund followed suit and fell nearly 6.5% on the day. Despite distribution per share growth of 4.1%, the market looked at the drop in NAV per share of 10.5% and acted accordingly.

The pain was especially felt in the UK portfolio, where values fell by 21.4% on a like-for-like basis because logistics yields shifted outwards by a huge 175 basis points from 3.25% to 5.00%. An increase in the South African portfolio value of 4.3% looks a little odd in that context (shouldn’t our yields also be higher?), but that local performance managed to turn a gaping wound into a bad scratch instead.

I’ve written on this topic a few times in Ghost Mail, but it is worth repeating here: property funds may offer inflationary protection in cash distributions as rentals increase, but they don’t help you with property values as the yields move higher and the values come down accordingly.

In a much simpler explanation that brings it closer to home (literally): what happens to the price of your house when interest rates have moved higher? If you aren’t sure, pour yourself a strong one before phoning an estate agent.

Industrials REIT releases the circular for the Blackstone deal (JSE: MLI)

As we already knew, the board is recommending the cash offer

An acquisition process is highly regulated and full of paperwork. You can expect to see several complicated announcements as Blackstone’s buyout offer for Industrials REIT goes through the motions.

This is especially true as the process is playing out in English law, which from my observations is even more complicated than our local takeover law. If they can go to such lengths in that country to recognise a new king, then you can imagine what a takeover process looks like.

The important point is that the directors of Industrials REIT unanimously recommend the deal to shareholders in the circular. It would be a surprise if it doesn’t get approved by shareholders.

Karooooo is growing, but not as quickly (JSE: KRO)

The world’s most stubborn traded range continues

If ever you wanted an illiquid stock where you could just patiently sit on the bid or offer to try and capture the spread, you could do far worse than Karooooo:

With more sideways action in the share price than a Monster Energy drifting competition, Karooooo has released its results for the quarter and year ended 28 February 2023. The numbers aren’t going sideways even if the share price is, with subscribers up 13% year-on-year.

There’s a concern about the rate of growth, with subscriber growth in Q4 2023 coming in 31% slower than in Q4 2022. This is measured based on the number of net new Cartrack subscribers (38,471 in this quarter vs. 55,587 a year ago).

Total revenue increased by 22% on a constant currency basis and subscription revenue only increased by 16% on a constant currency basis, as the group has increasingly moved away from the focused model that made me buy shares in the first place.

The core business (Cartrack) grew operating profit by 28% for the full financial year and expanded its operating margin from 27% to 30%. That is the gem in this group.

Sadly, management continues to be distracted by the Carzuka project, a used car business that should’ve been called bazooka as a fairer reflection of what it does to group profits. The loss this year was R38 million vs. R13 million the prior year as that business scales up.

Record free cash flow for the year of R547 million was achieved vs. R379 million a year before.

Interestingly, there’s been a change in the accounting policy that sees 56% of costs of acquiring a subscriber capitalised rather than 66% a year before. This is a more conservative approach. Although there is no impact on free cash flow, it does mean that adjusted EBITDA is lower than it would’ve been under the old policy.

Can it get any worse for Quantum Foods? (JSE: QFH)

Load shedding, meet bird flu

The poultry industry is seeing absolute flames at the moment. Even Nando’s Peri-Peri isn’t a fair reflection of what’s going on out there.

Back in February, Quantum Foods released a trading statement that reflected an expected decrease in HEPS of at lest 100% for the six months ended March. In other words, the company expected to be loss-making.

An updated trading statement reflects a decrease of between 76% and 87%, which is still horrible but obviously better than expected. Load shedding and consumer pressures are causing havoc for this business and the broader industry.

Just when things were looking up, the second half of April 2023 saw an outbreak of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) at Lemoenkloof layer farm in the Western Cape. This resulted in 420,000 layers being culled at a cost of R34 million. Competitor farms in the region were also affected, so eggs are likely to be more expensive in the fairest Cape for the rest of the year.

This industry literally cannot catch a break at the moment.

Sibanye is still a rollercoaster (JSE: SSW)

Many hearts (and wallets) have been broken by this stock

If you’re looking for a steady, safe investment that won’t keep you up at night, Sibanye-Stillwater should be at the very bottom of your list. If the company isn’t dealing with a gold strike, it’s dealing with floods. When those disasters are finally gone, PGM prices fall over. It’s wild.

At least the “green” metals are starting to show signs of promise. The Finnish government is supportive of the Keliber project, having agreed to increase their equity stake to 20%. The Rhyolite Ridge JV has received support from the United States Department of Energy through a conditional $700 million loan.

The South African gold operations have returned to profitability, thankfully. It couldn’t have come at a better time, as the PGM operations have suffered a dip in production and a nasty drop in average basket prices.

With all said and done, adjusted EBITDA for the quarter ended March 2023 is down to R7.8 billion from R13.7 billion a year ago. Yikes. It even looks bad compared to the quarter ended December 2022, which came in above R10 billion.

The culprit is the local PGM business, where production was impacted by Eskom load curtailment and copper theft of all things. Adjusted EBITDA fell 43% year-on-year (admittedly vs. a record base period) and the company believes that the outlook for the second quarter is more positive.

The share price closed 11.3% lower on the day.

Steinhoff: what the FAQ? (JSE: SNH)

This frequently asked questions list makes for entertaining (and rather sad) reading

I don’t know how many more times the Steinhoff board needs to tell investors that the thing is worthless. A frequently asked questions (FAQ) list is the latest attempt, which you can find here.

To save you the time, here’s a pretty blunt answer to this ongoing debate:

The document even includes perhaps the most important question of all:

Jokes aside, there is some important deal news from the company. Mattress Firm and Tempur Sealy International have reached a deal that would see Tempur Sealy acquire all the shares in Mattress Firm in a cash and share transaction valued at $4 billion. Steinhoff holds an economic interest of 45% on a fully-diluted basis in Mattress Firm.

$2.7 billion of the price is payable in cash and the rest is in shares in Tempur Sealy. This will give Steinhoff a 7.5% stake in the combined company, which I’m sure makes the debt holders happy. As per the FAQ, this doesn’t exactly help the equity holders, as the price doesn’t differ materially from Steinhoff’s recent disclosures. Sorry to disappoint.

The deal is only expected to close in the second half of 2024 as there is an extensive regulatory process to be followed. The Federal Trade Commission (FTC) has requested additional information and documentary material, so this won’t be a slam dunk.

Vukile chooses more Spain vs. local pain (JSE: VKE)

And City of Joburg is living up to expectations

Let’s start with the bad news, although some on Twitter felt it might be good news.

Vukile Property Fund’s deal to acquire the Pan Africa Shopping Centre is dead. One of the conditions precedent was for the seller to obtain a written amendment to the notarial head lease from City of Joburg (COJ). It’s hard enough to renew a driver’s licence with those people or pay a traffic fine, so I have no idea why anyone thought this would be successful. Unsurprisingly, the initial deadline of November 2022 was pushed out to April 2023 and then missed again.

The deal is off and I wish the seller luck in ever successfully selling this property. Relying on COJ for something is a horrible position to be in.

Perhaps reminded of just how poorly run parts of our country are, Vukile has exercised its call option to acquire more shares in the Spanish subsidiary, Castellana Properties. This is for a meaty amount, coming in at €63.9 million (note the currency). When this is finalised, Vukile will own 99.6% of Castellana.

Little Bites:

  • Director dealings:
    • GMB Liquidity (an associate of newly minted Grand Parade Investments (JSE: GPL) director Greg Bortz) is still mopping up shares in the company, this time buying R2.67 million worth of shares.
    • Two prescribed officers of Capitec (JSE: CPI) have bought shares worth R2.15 million in total.
    • An associate of Gareth Ackerman has bought shares in Pick n Pay (JSE: PIK) worth R627k as the price has continued to slide.
    • A director of KAL Group (JSE: KAL) has bought shares worth R22.7k.
  • OUTsurance Group (JSE: OGL) has completed the acquisition of 50% in Youi Holdings (the Aussie business) from Willem Roos, co-founder of the business. Minority shareholdings are a feature of the OUTsurance structure, as OUTsurance Group only owns 89.7% of OUTsurance Holdings, which in turn has bought the 50% stake.
  • Octodec (JSE: OCT) has announced a new asset and property management agreement with City Property Administration (CPA). As a reminder of how incestuous the property industry actually is, this is a related party deal as the chairman and managing director of Octodec are also shareholders in CPA and directors of that company. CPA also holds shares in Octodec. With more surprising related parties running around than at a hillbilly’s birthday party, an independent expert will need to opine on the agreement and a circular will be released to shareholders.
  • Investors in Ethos Capital (JSE: EPE) should note that an investor update presentation will be made available on Wednesday morning as part of an event scheduled for 9am. I’ll revisit it in Ghost Bites this week.
  • PSV Holdings (JSE: PSV) is suspended and in business rescue. The updates are always a bit of a soap opera, with the latest news being that DNG Energy will put forward a proposal to recapitalise the company during the next 3 months.

Ghost Bites (Barloworld | DRDGOLD | Eastern Platinum | Orion | Redefine | South32)

The Finance Ghost
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Ghost Bites (Barloworld | DRDGOLD | Eastern Platinum | Orion | Redefine | South32)

Barloworld trading statement: look closely (JSE: BAW)

The difference between continuing and discontinued operations is critical

At first glance, Barloworld’s results for the year ended March 2023 don’t look good. HEPS fell by between 4.5% and 6.3%, which suggests that the core operations are struggling.

You need to dig deeper, particularly after the mobility business Zeda was unbundled to shareholders and the Logistics business was sold. When earnings have been sold off or simply passed on to shareholders, then group earnings obviously move lower.

This is why the concept of “continuing operations” is so important, as it tells you about what is left in the group. On that measure, HEPS increased by between 28.5% and 31.0%. That’s more like it!

DRDGOLD reports a huge positive swing in EBITDA (JSE: DRD)

The company has enjoyed a higher gold price

DRDGOLD gives punters an exceptionally leveraged play on gold. This chart of DRDGOLD vs. competitors will show you that if you believe gold is going higher, then picking the company with the highest operating leverage (i.e. DRDGOLD) is the way to go:

The reverse is also true, in case you’re wondering. Get it wrong and DRDGOLD will bite your head off.

The reason for this is that DRDGOLD is a tailings business, so it processes ore that was previously mined to get more gold out of it with modern techniques. This isn’t exactly the most efficient way to find the yellow stuff, so the production cost is high and margins are very thin unless the gold price moves higher. You can see where this is going.

Quarter-on-quarter production increased by 4% and the average gold price received was 11% higher in rand. With all-in costs per kilogram only up by 2% over the same period (thanks to improved yield in the process of extracting the gold), the net result is a 54% jump in adjusted EBITDA!

There is no debt in this business, which is why investors see it as a cash cow during a period in which gold prices are rising.

Eastern Platinum completed a rights offering (JSE: EPS)

Most of the capital was raised in Canada

Eastern Platinum has raised roughly R96.5 million through a rights offering, with the vast majority of the capital (around R94.5 million) being raised on the Toronto Stock Exchange.

Ka An Development Co now owns 49.9% in the company after following its basic rights and exercising what the announcement refers to as a subscription privilege.

Orion gets a step closer to unlocking funding (JSE: ORN)

A crucial condition precedent has been met

Orion Minerals rallied 16.7% on the news that the company managed to repay the Anglo American sefa Mining Fund loan facility. The loan dates back to 2015 and was used for exploration and development of the Prieska Copper-Zinc Project.

Thanks to the share placement with Clover Alloys and major existing shareholders, the company settled the loan and has released the shares held as security against the loan. This is the key in unlocking the IDC convertible loan facility and Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp early funding arrangement, as those shares are needed as part of the related security package.

Drawdown on those packages is expected imminently, with the initial capital earmarked for trial mining, dewatering and feasibility studies.

Redefine gets a bloody nose from the market (JSE: RDF)

A significant drop in the dividend never puts a smile on the faces of REIT investors

Redefine (JSE: RDF) finds itself in the unfortunate position in which a large proportion of its portfolio is in the Office sector, which is still a horrible place to be. 38% of the South African portfolio is Office, with a 14.3% vacancy rate and -12.4% rental reversions in the six months to February 2023.

The fair value movements in the Office portfolio make for sad reading regardless of the grade of the property:

In the South African Retail portfolio, reversions were also negative at -3.7%. In other words, new leases are being concluded at lower rates than the expired leases. The vacancy rate of 4.4% is steady year-on-year and the portfolio’s fair value moved higher by R139 million – nowhere near enough to offset the Office move.

Enter the Industrial portfolio: an asset class that is still doing very well. Although vacancies increased from 3.1% to 4.9%, reversions were positive at +1.3% and the total fair value was R141 million higher. In case you’re keeping score, that still doesn’t make up for the Office move.

We can’t just look at the R59.4 billion South African portfolio, as there’s also the R34.7 million portfolio in Poland as part of the Redefine story. 82% of that portfolio is in the Retail sector and only 3% is in Office, with the rest in Industrial – a much better split than in the local business. Metrics are mixed in the overseas business, with reversions still negative as a headache for investors.

If we look at the balance sheet, the SA REIT loan-to-value increased from 40.2% to 40.9% and the weighted average cost of debt in South Africa moved from 8.7% to 9.2%. This really isn’t the right time for debt to be going up, which is part of what the market didn’t like. Although 81.2% of group debt is hedged for an average term of 1.7 years, these hedges can’t be achieved for free and the cost is becoming increasingly more expensive.

With all said and done, distributable income per share was down by 9.2% and the dividend per share fell by 14.2%. The market punished Redefine with a 6.6% drop in the share price.

South32’s Hermosa project gets FAST-41 status (JSE: S32)

Zinc and manganese are of strategic importance

South32 is the proud owner of 100% of the Hermosa project, the only advanced project in the US that could supply two federally designated critical metals: zinc and manganese. With the project now given FAST-41 status, South32 expects a more efficient and transparent process in achieving the federal permits required as the development of the Taylor and Clark deposits continues.

The feasibility study for the Taylor zinc-lead-silver deposit is expected to be completed in the second half of the calendar year and early stage work is underway at the Clark battery-grade manganese deposit, with the focus on moving to a pre-feasibility study.

Little Bites:

  • Director dealings:
    • Des de Beer has bought another R2.75 million worth of shares in Lighthouse Properties (JSE: LTE).
    • An associate of a director of Ascendis Health (JSE: ASC) has bought shares in the company worth R211k.
  • Sanlam’s (JSE: SLM) partial offer to AfroCentric (JSE: ACT) shareholders is now wholly unconditional, with regulatory approvals having been met.
  • Claims filed by market purchase claimants in relation to Steinhoff’s (JSE: SNH) global settlement will be settled through the Stichting Steinhoff Recovery Foundation on a rolling basis from 10 May 2023.
  • Jasco Electronics (JSE: JSC) has received the necessary compliance certificate from the Takeover Regulation Panel (TRP) that will enable the offer and delisting to go ahead.
  • Efora Energy (JSE: EEL) is suspended from trading and released a trading statement noting a headline loss of between 33.51 cents and 34.51 cents. With a suspended price of 12 cents per share, that doesn’t sound good.

Ghost Bites (Alexander Forbes | MTN Rwanda | Santova)

The Finance Ghost
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Ghost Bites (Alexander Forbes | MTN Rwanda | Santova)

Alexander Forbes to buy 60% of TSA (JSE: AFH)

This is a voluntary announcement of a typical bolt-on acquisition

The term “bolt-on” acquisition gets used loosely to describe a deal that is typically low on risk, as the acquirer is buying a business that slots quite easily into the existing business. Or bolts onto it, for that matter.

Alexander Forbes has agreed to acquire a 60% stake in TSA Administration, an independent provider of institutional group risk insurance administration services in South Africa. The business has been at it for 25 years and serves over 120,000 insured members.

Alexander Forbes has the option to acquire the remaining 40% stake over a period of five years. This is a good example of an initial position of control, with the ability to take out the minorities over time.

The deal is too small to even be categorised for JSE purposes, so details of the purchase price haven’t been announced.

MTN Rwanda under margin pressure (JSE: MTN)

This subsidiary seems to be struggling more than the others

MTN Rwanda has grown mobile subscribers by 7% and active data subscribers declined by 0.7%. That’s not exactly a high growth story, even if Mobile Money subscribers grew by 17.2% in the latest quarter. MTN Rwanda experienced a 50 basis points drop in customer market share as competition started to bite.

Service revenue was up by 14.9% and EBITDA by only 9.4%, so margin fell by 220 basis points to 45.5%.

The story at profit after tax level is anything but good, with a 32% drop due to increasing financing costs relating to inflation adjustments on lease payments.

Ouch.

Santova investors can’t wait for Monday (JSE: SNV)

Shortly after the close on Friday, Santova released excellent numbers

To say that Santova has been a winner of the pandemic would be an understatement. This small cap now boasts a market cap of over R1 billion and has been executing a strategy to make the most of the gift that was the supply chain crunch of the pandemic.

It’s clearly been working, with share price growth over three years of a whopping 430%. To avoid using the depths of the pandemic as a base for comparison, we can look at a five-year chart that shows growth of over 162%, which is a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 21.4%.

This company is a perfect example of why small cap investors get excited about the world. When it works, it works incredibly well.

The company is still growing its earnings strongly, with growth in headline earnings per share (HEPS) for the 12 months to 28 February 2023 of between 19.1% and 24.1%.

I’m sure that Santova investors are looking forward to seeing what the share price action on Monday morning might bring. Based on the midpoint of the earnings guidance, the company is trading on a Price/Earnings multiple of roughly 5x.

Little bites:

  • Director dealings:
    • An associate of a director of FirstRand (JSE: FSR) has sold shares worth R6.7m in exchange for units in a unit trust.
    • A director of a subsidiary of Growthpoint (JSE: GRT) has sold shares worth nearly R1.7m.
    • You guessed it – Des de Beer has bought another R1.55 million worth of shares in Lighthouse Properties (JSE: LTE).
  • The chairman of Southern Palladium (JSE: SDL), Terence Goodlace, has resigned from the board based on other board positions and advice received on the number of board positions in the industry that would be appropriate. Mike Stirzaker, an existing director, has been appointed as the interim chairman.
  • Attention Indluplace (JSE: ILU) shareholders: check your inboxes for the circular related to the offer by SA Corporate (JSE: SAC).
  • If you are a shareholder in WBHO (JSE: WBO), take note that the circular regarding the B-BBEE transaction has been posted to shareholders.
  • And in a final circular reference (Excel jokes are always allowable), Premier Fishing and Brands (JSE: PFB) has released the circular regarding the offer by Sekunjalo Investment Holdings.
  • The small related party transaction at Acsion Limited (JSE: ACS) has received the nod of approval from the independent expert as being fair to shareholders.

Ghost Wrap #23 (AB InBev | Famous Brands | Calgro M3 | CMH | Astral Foods | Pick n Pay | Santova)

The Finance Ghost
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Ghost Wrap #23 (AB InBev | Famous Brands | Calgro M3 | CMH | Astral Foods | Pick n Pay | Santova)

Welcome to Ghost Wrap. It’s fast. It’s fun. It’s informative.

In this week’s episode of Ghost Wrap, we cover:

  • AB InBev is making a strong case for itself as a more defensive stock than the likes of British American Tobacco.
  • Famous Brands doesn’t think that load shedding is working out well for the group but I disagree – and the latest numbers seem to support my view.
  • Calgro M3 has released very strong numbers and is using the depressed share price as an opportunity for buybacks.
  • CMH’s profitability has been a high performance machine of note.
  • Astral Foods is firmly on the wrong side of load shedding, with narrow margins on a good day turning into nearly no margin at all on a bad day.
  • Pick n Pay is taking serious strain at the moment and the share price has horribly underperformed Shoprite.
  • Santova is a great example of what gets small cap investors excited.

The Ghost Wrap podcast is proudly brought to you by Mazars, a leading international audit, tax and advisory firm with a national footprint within South Africa. Visit the Mazars website for more information.

Listen to the podcast below:

Ghost Bites (AB InBev | Famous Brands | Gold Fields | KAL Group | Mondi | Pick n Pay)

The Finance Ghost
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Ghost Bites (AB InBev | Famous Brands | Gold Fields | KAL Group | Mondi | Pick n Pay)

AB InBev reports on its first quarter (JSE: ANH)

Despite this tricky environment, EBITDA margin expanded slightly

When the going gets tough, the tough reach for a drink with their mates. That’s how it seems at least, with revenue growth at AB InBev of 13.2% in the first quarter and normalised EBITDA growth of 13.6%. Normalised EBITDA margin has expanded by 13 basis points to 33.5%.

Most of the growth was from pricing increases, with volumes only up by 0.9%. If you ever wondered whether beer is price sensitive, you now have your answer.

The share price is up over 17% this year, so this has been a good place to hide this year. I can’t resist drawing a one-year view of beer vs. cigarettes in the form of AB InBev vs. British American Tobacco.

Pick your sinner:

A famously good trading statement (JSE: FBR)

Famous Brands is keeping us fed while we are fed up with Eskom

Surprisingly, Famous Brands suggests that load shedding isn’t doing any favours to its growth prospects. I disagree completely. When there’s no power at home, buying food on the way home becomes a whole lot more appealing. I personally think that load shedding is a net positive for the group, at least for now.

For the year ended February 2023, HEPS is up by between 27% and 47%. To be fair, the base period was still impacted by the back-end of Covid.

Notably, the HEPS number doesn’t include a R75 million liquidation dividend received from the disaster that was Gourmet Burger Kitchen in the UK.

Full results are due on 22 May, in which we will be able to get further details on the performance.

Gold Fields reflects on a largely flat quarter (JSE: GFI)

If you focus on sequential quarters though, it’s anything but flat

This operational update from Gold Fields is a fun example of why you need to be clear on what numbers you are looking at and what you are comparing them to.

On a year-on-year basis, things look alright at Gold Fields. Production was flat, all-in sustaining cost (AISC) was flat and all-in cost (AIC) was 2% higher because of capital expenditure at Salares Norte, a project which is now 90.3% complete. First production at that project is expected during Q4 2023.

The story is different on a quarter-on-quarter basis i.e. compared to the immediately preceding quarter. Production dropped 4% on that basis, AISC was up 8% and ASC was up 3%. Things aren’t as good as they were at the end of 2022, that’s for sure. The pressure seems to mostly be in Australia.

After paying a significant dividend, net debt to EBITDA has increased from 0.29x at the end of 2022 to 0.36x at the end of March 2023.

Production and cost guidance is unchanged for the full year.

KAL shareholders can be thankful for the PEG fuel deal (JSE: KAL)

Formerly called Kaap Agri, the group is operating in a tough environment

South Africa is already a volatile place to do business and that’s before you layer on the complexities of the agriculture sector. A quick look at KAL Group’s performance for the six months to March shows recurring HEPS growth of 8.7% and a similar increase in the dividend, which is hardly a tough result in this environment. The important thing is to look deeper in understanding this number,

Whenever a major acquisition has been executed, you need to look at how the business would’ve performed without that acquisition. This is a comparable view that tells you a lot about sustainable performance, as the major jump from an acquisition is only felt in the period in which the acquisition is first brought into the numbers. After that, it’s all about sustainable earnings.

KAL Group certainly doesn’t try to hide this, making it clear early on that the result was helped by the including of PEG, a fuel retail business that the company recently acquired. To give you a sense of how important it was, group revenue increased by 68.4% overall and 11.8% on a comparable basis.

Excluding fuel, inflation was 12.1%. This suggests that volumes in the rest of the business came under pressure, which makes sense in this environment.

When buying a business, you’re buying the revenue and the expenses. Before you get too excited about that jump in revenue, take note that expenses increased by 72.9% because of the acquisition. Encouragingly, like-for-like expenses were only 0.4% higher. The group has done an exceptional job of managing costs, especially with R35 million of loadshedding expenses. Without the loadshedding costs, like-for-like expenses actually fell by 2.0%.

Looking deeper at major divisions excluding fuel, Agrimark (by far the largest contributor in the group) reported operating profit growth of 1.2% and Agrimark Grain’s profits fell by 11.3%.

The balance sheet reflects a higher net debt position because of the PEG acquisition and inflationary pressures on working capital. When combined with an environment of higher rates, finance costs shot up from R60 million to R152 million.

As commendable as the group’s efforts have been in managing costs, the reality is that the story wouldn’t have been so pretty without the major strategic acquisition. It will be interesting to see how the shape of the group plays out going forward.

Mondi reports a softer quarter (JSE: MNP)

The company calls it a “stable” period, but supply-demand seems to be shifting

Mondi is a highly cyclical business that is impacted by many factors that are far outside of its control. These include market selling prices and levels of demand across various products.

Despite volatility in individual variables, underlying EBITDA from continuing operations was flat vs. the final quarter of 2022, after excluding fair value gains on forestry. This is a non-cash item and I would also happily ignore it.

Worryingly, this quarter displayed lower average selling prices and softer demand. Thankfully, input prices were also lower, which is why EBITDA has turned out ok on a net basis.

The CEO notes that trading in the second quarter is experiencing “subdued” demand with lower average selling prices. Input costs are also reducing, so the overall narrative remains positive and the company is still focused on expansion.

In case you’re wondering, the Russian operations generated €123 million in EBITDA in this quarter and the sale of this division is sitting with Russian authorities for approval. I’m very glad that I don’t need to attend those meetings.

Pick n Pay’s comparable HEPS drops 16.3% (JSE: PIK)

The last thing you want to be running is fridges during load shedding

Is grocery retail defensive? Well, sort of. Even in periods without load shedding, the low net margins in grocery stores and the significant variance in gross margin at product level create a recipe for far more erratic earnings movements than most people think.

Simply, if net margin is 3% and gross margin moves by a rather innocent looking 100 basis points further up, you’re looking at a 33% move in net profit if all else holds equal.

In the 52 weeks to 26 February, Pick n Pay reported 8.9% growth in turnover and an improvement in gross margin to 19.6%. Under normal circumstances, that would be a solid outcome. Instead, with trading expenses up 11.9% thanks to load shedding and general inflationary pressures, the impact on pro forma trading profit is a 4.9% decrease. This just gets worse as you head down the income statement, leading to a drop in pro forma headline earnings per share (HEPS) of -16.3% and a similar decrease in the dividend, as the payout ratio has been held steady. More on that later.

What is “pro forma” HEPS, I hopefully hear you ask? Pick n Pay reports this number to strip out the impact of business interruption insurance proceeds (the insurance was received in a different period to the losses suffered) and hyperinflation gains and losses in Zimbabwe. I agree with these adjustments and Pick n Pay makes its dividend decisions based on this definition of HEPS, so this is what I would focus on.

If we dig into the expense growth, we find a perfect storm of diesel generator costs for load shedding (R430 million net of electricity savings or R522 million before the saving, which shows how much more expensive it is) and incremental costs in implementing the all-important Ekuseni strategic plan. The group-wide cost saving initiatives are the only reason that costs didn’t completely run away from Pick n Pay, with R800 million worth of savings in FY23.

There are some highlights, like 20.2% sales growth at Boxer and 15.3% sales growth from standalone Pick n Pay Clothing stores, with 58 new stores opened in this financial year. On-demand sales (Pick n Pay ASAP!) more than doubled.

I flagged earlier that the payout ratio is changing. Going forward, the payout ratio of 76% (1.3x cover) will change to between a 56% and 67% payout (1.5x to 1.8x cover). In other words, Pick n Pay needs to retain more of its earnings to facilitate the Ekuseni plan. If you’ve been keeping an eye on how well Shoprite has been doing, you’ll know exactly what that is so important.

The one-year chart of these rivals is incredible:

Little Bites:

  • Director dealings:
    • Des de Beer is still buying up shares in Lighthouse Properties (JSE: LTE), this time to the value of R402k.
  • Impala Platinum (JSE: IMP) has acquired a further 0.12% in Royal Bafokeng Platinum (JSE: RBP), taking the stake to 45.20%.
  • Spar (JSE: SPP) is still in the process of finding a new CEO. Until that happens, Mike Bosman will continue as Executive Chairman of the group.
  • Aspen (JSE: APN) released a vague announcement about an exclusive distribution agreement with Amgen for a period of five years. The announcement doesn’t give a single number to help investors understand the impact. Unless you’re a medical doctor familiar with the products, this is a prime example of a company using SENS as a public relations tool rather than an investor communication platform.
  • In case you are closely following the Steinhoff (JSE: SNH) restructuring process or simply looking for a document to help you fall asleep at night, take note that the updated WHOA Restructuring Plan has been published.

Who’s doing what this week in the South African M&A space?

Marylou Greig
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Who’s doing what this week in the South African M&A space?

Exchange-Listed Companies

Mining Companies took centre stage this week:

Gold Fields has partnered with Osisko Mining to develop the Windfall project in Québec, Canada. The companies will develop and mine the underground Windfall Project. Gold Fields has acquired a 50% interest in the feasibility stage for a cash payment of C$300 million with a further cash payment of C$300 million payable on issuance of key permits. Under the partnership Gold Fields has also acquired a 50% up-front vested interest in Osisko’s highly prospective Urban Barry and Quévillon district exploration camps – in exchange Gold Fields will fund the first C$75 million in regional exploration on the properties over the first seven years, thereafter exploration spend will be shared.

Glencore has announced the purchase of an 30% equity stake in Alunorte and a 45% stake in Mineracão Rio do Norte for a combined equity value of c.US$775 million. The acquisitions from Norwegian Norsk Hydro are inter-conditional. The Brazilian acquisitions provide Glencore with exposure to lower-quartile carbon alumina and bauxite – enhancing Glencore’s capability to supply the materials in the ongoing energy transition.

In February Sibanye-Stillwater, which had a 19.9% stake in Australian retreatment mine New Century Resources, made an unsolicited offer to acquire the remaining stake. The takeover offer of A$1.10 per share saw Sibanye’s stake increase to 87.64% by March 21, 2023. The company will now acquire all remaining shares that have not been validly accepted in the offer. Sibanye has been unhappy for some time with New Century Resources’ strategic direction. The transaction is valued at A$120 million (R1,5 billion).

Unlisted Companies

Local real estate company Only Realty Property Group has acquired a majority stake in Leadhome, a tech-driven, full service real estate agency.

DealMakers is SA’s M&A publication.
www.dealmakerssouthafrica.com

Weekly corporate finance activity by SA exchange-listed companies

Marylou Greig
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Weekly corporate finance activity by SA exchange-listed companies

Castleview Property Fund has issued 41,67 million shares in terms of its specific issue of shares for cash announcement in February. The shares were issued to related parties – associates of I Group Investments, the ultimate holding company of Castleview – at R6.48 per share for an aggregate amount of R270 million. The company expects to issue the remaining 6,17 million shares representing an aggregate value of R40 million during July 2023.

Erin Energy – suspended in April 2018 when the company filed for bankruptcy in the US – has had its secondary listing removed by the JSE. The move by the JSE is based on the failure of the company to make any meaningful progress on the completion of the liquidation proceedings and addressing the various non-compliances with the Listing Requirements since its suspension. The last day to trade (off-market) will be 9 May 2023, following which investors will remain shareholders in an unlisted company.

Shareholders in Tsogo Sun Gaming have been asked to approve the change in the company name to Tsogo Sun Limited. In 2019 the company changed its name from Tsogo Sun Holdings Limited to Tsogo Sun Gaming Limited. The Board believes that given the trademark used is Tsogo Sun in its marketing material and in its domain name this would be more appropriate.

A number of companies listed on one of South Africa’s Stock Exchanges have initiated share buyback programmes and each week update shareholders. They are:

Calgro M3 has advised it has repurchased an aggregate of 7 million shares, representing 4.99% of the issued ordinary share capital of the company. The shares were repurchased at R2.20 per share for an aggregate value of R15,4 million. The shares will be delisted and cancelled. The company may repurchase a further 15,1 million shares in terms of the General Authority granted at the company’s annual general meeting.

South32 has increased its share repurchase programme by c. $50 million in anticipation of a stronger outlook for commodity prices in the second half of its financial year. This will enable the company to return $158 million to shareholders before September 2023. This week the company repurchased a further 3,101,096 shares at an aggregate cost of A$12,9 million.

Glencore this week repurchased 12,800,000 shares for a total consideration of £60,27 million. The share repurchases form part of the second phase of the company’s existing buy-back programme.

Prosus and Naspers continued with their open-ended share repurchase programmes. During the period 24 to 28 April 2023, a further 2,439,269 Prosus shares were repurchased for an aggregate €163,6 million and a further 309,350 Naspers shares for a total consideration of R992,9 million.

One company issued a profit warning this week: Astral Foods and one company issued or withdrew a cautionary notice: Ellies.

DealMakers is SA’s M&A publication.
www.dealmakerssouthafrica.com

Who’s doing what in the African M&A space?

Vanessa Aitken
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Who’s doing what in the African M&A space?

DealMakers AFRICA

Development Partners International, British International Investment, South Suez and other investors have made a US$165 million equity investment into the parent company of Egypt’s discount retailer, Kazyon. The funding will be used to accelerate the retailer’s expansion plans across Africa.

Chariot and Vivo Energy announced a new partnership agreement to implement a gas-to-industry business in Morocco; create a jointly owned SPV for the purchase, transportation and distribution of natural gas to end-users and put in place a long-term gas sales agreement for a portion of the future gas production from the Anchois development project.

A Tunisian startup, Drest.tn, that specialises in online sales of lifestyle products has raised US$336 000 from 216 Capital Ventures, which will be used to expand further into the African Market.

The Rohatyn Group, which recently acquired the business of Ethos Private Equity, has invested in the Kenstra Group, which operates in the East Africa paper and print sectors. Financial terms were not disclosed.

Nomba, a Nigerian payment service provider, announced a US$30 million pre-Series B investment led by Base 10 Partners. Other investors included Partech, Khosla Ventures, Helios Digital Ventures and Shopify.

The International Finance Corporation (IFC) is backing Equatorial Coca-Cola Bottling Company’s sustainability strategy with a €64 million financing package. The company plans reductions in its water and energy footprint through the replacement of production lines, reduction of raw materials, solar panel installations and other changes. The financing package is made up of a €52 million loan from the IFC, concessional finance totalling €8,5 million from the Canada IFC Blended Climate Finance Program and €3,5 million from the Alafaq Aljadida Middle East and North Africa (MENA) Private Sector Development Program.

DealMakers AFRICA is the Continent’s M&A publication
www.dealmakersafrica.com

Ghost Bites (Astral Foods | Aveng | Calgro M3 | CMH | MTN Uganda | Rebosis)

The Finance Ghost
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Ghost Bites (Astral Foods | Aveng | Calgro M3 | CMH | MTN Uganda | Rebosis)

Astral + Eskom = profit shedding (JSE: ARL)

There’s no room for error with skinny margins in the poultry industry

This sector isn’t for chickens. When you’re dealing with very small net profit margins, the law of small numbers means that modest changes in ratios further up the income statement (e.g. a seemingly innocent drop in gross margin) can have a massive percentage impact at net profit level.

This leads to earnings volatility and a potentially wild ride for investors. In a country like South Africa that dishes up so many challenges, it’s more like riding a wild stallion than just an erratic donkey.

After alerting the market to its current troubles in January, Astral has updated its guidance with a trading statement for the six months ended March 2023. HEPS is expected to decrease by between 87% and 92%. The only positive here is that this means that the company is still profitable, if only just!

Aveng banks the Trident Steel disposal (JSE: AEG)

There’s no feeling quite like money in the bank, right?

It’s one thing to agree to a transaction. It’s quite another to open up the online banking platform and see cold, hard cash in the account. This is especially true when the inflow is over R1.2 billion!

Aveng’s disposal of Trident Steel was a “locked box” deal based on the 30 June 2022 balance sheet. This means that the balance sheet is frozen in time for purposes of the deal value. The alternative is to work with a post-completion adjustment, which adjusts the purchase price for the state of the balance sheet when the asset finally changes hands.

This was perhaps a “semi-locked box” if such a thing exists, as there are working capital adjustments that applied. There was also a “ticking fee” which is an interesting thing that is a sign of the times in terms of the cost of funding. This fee increases the selling price based on how long it takes the deal to complete.

With all said and done, Aveng has received just over R1.22 billion. R700 million was the actual purchase price, R264 million was net cash retained by Aveng, R75 million was the ticking fee and R183 million was the return of additional liquidity that was previously provided to the business to fund growth.

Be careful here, as some of this cash was obviously already inside the Aveng group. It’s not as though a fresh inflow of R1.22 billion took place at group level. This was the total amount received by the Aveng group holding company, with a smaller (but still very important) amount received on a net group basis.

You should also take note that Aveng has provided a loan of R210 million to facilitate a 30% subscription in the equity of the business that is reserved for B-BBEE participation. Remember, R700 million was the actual purchase price, hence 30% is R210 million. Interest is payable on the loan of 17%, which is a much better return than Aveng has historically achieved for shareholders!

The intention is to find a B-BBEE party who can come into the deal and take Aveng out within 12 months.

Aveng’s share price closed over 5% higher as the market celebrated the news that Aveng no longer has any legacy South African debt. At one point, it peaked at R3.3 billion! It certainly hasn’t been all good news lately, as the McConnell Dowell subsidiary in Australia has had to increase its debt to R406 million in respect to a project guarantee call. That debt is expected to be settled in full by June 2024.

It’s a complicated story, so I’ve included this table from the announcement with my highlights on it to guide you:

In one pocket and out the other, basically.

Calgro M3 puts out a strong trading statement (JSE: CGR)

The market liked it, closing 7% higher on the day

For the financial year ended February 2023, Calgro M3 delivered a strong performance across both its divisions and it shows in the numbers. HEPS will be between 147.90 cents and 158.46 cents, reflecting growth of between 40% and 50%. With the share price having closed at R3.00 on the day, it trades on a P/E multiple of roughly 2x!

It’s going to take time for Calgro M3 to trade at a higher multiple, as investors have been burnt before by erratic earnings. For value investors who love digging into stocks at low multiples, this surely has to be on the research list.

This is especially true when the construction and handover of properties was in line with expectations in 2023, with the company talking about “sustainable returns” in the year to come. Another useful update is that a new burial product has been introduced in the Memorial Parks business, with more success than the previous efforts. The Memorial Parks segment delivered its best final quarter to date.

The company also managed to effect a major share repurchase on a single day, with shares worth R15.4 million repurchased at R2.20 per share. This was through the JSE order book, so the seller wasn’t aware (in theory at least) that Calgro was on the bid. In practice, brokers sometimes do some work behind the scenes to get the trades away for their respective clients.

This repurchase represents 4.99% of issued share capital at the time that the general authority for a repurchase was granted. Up to another 10.73% of shares may be repurchased under the existing authority, which is valid until the next AGM.

That seller must be mildly irritated about the share price movement since that sale, though I would caution that the bid-offer spread can be horrific in illiquid stocks, especially when trying to sell a significant volume of shares.

CMH is still purring like a V8 (JSE: CMH)

For how long can this continue?

CMH has been one of the unlikeliest winners of the aftermath of the pandemic. At a time when people lost their jobs or took pay cuts after companies dug into reserves to survive the worst lockdowns, CMH has somehow been finding a way to make an absolute fortune. This is despite consumers paying far more for petrol and food.

I understand that supply chain constraints were rather useful in boosting car prices, but a chart like this is just ridiculous:

At revenue level, the sale of vehicles is still the bulk of the business, contributing 92% of revenue. Car hire made a huge comeback in the past financial year, with revenue up 82%. Thanks to economies of scale in that business as it bounced back, car hire profits more than doubled from R116 million to R269 million.

This is where we get to the most interesting thing about CMH. Because of the vast difference in segmental margins, car hire may only contribute 7% of revenue but it also contributes 43% of profit before tax!

A recovery in tourism helps the car rental business. The ongoing collapse of Uber in South Africa certainly helps too, with no shortage of complaints on Twitter about how erratic the service has become. Still, I am amazed that car sales are holding up like this, as I expected that side of the business to suffer.

After a couple more interest rate hikes, we will surely see a slowdown in performance.

The dividend declared per share has increased by only 6.7%, despite the company choosing to focus on dividends paid this year (a timing thing) which was 67% higher. Nothing like a factor of 10x difference when trying to drive a particular narrative, right?

With HEPS up 23.2% and the dividend declared up by 6.7%, management is getting tighter with cash. I would be doing the same if I was in their position.

MTN Uganda releases quarterly results (JSE: MTN)

The results of the African subsidiaries are always worth reviewing

MTN Uganda is nowhere near as important as MTN Nigeria that I covered a few days ago, but it’s still worth looking at the underlying numbers.

For the quarter ended March, revenue grew strongly across all the major lines: service revenue +15.8%, data revenue +25.7% and fintech revenue +20.7%. In contrast to what we’ve seen elsewhere in telecoms, EBITDA margin actually expanded by 40 basis points to 52.0%.

Capital expenditure fell by 16.3%, driving a huge drop in capex intensity (capex divided by revenue) of 600 basis points to 15.2%. This is now within MTN Uganda’s target range, so the base period was simply an outsized capex number. That bodes well for free cash flow generation, although capex intensity is expected to rise over the medium-term as investment is accelerated.

Rebosis shows the value of a working email address (JSE: REA)

No, really. It helps when people can contact you.

Rebosis is in business rescue and “rescuing” a property fund isn’t exactly rocket science. There are buildings and there is debt against them. The only way to try and save any kind of equity for shareholders is to try and sell off the portfolio at maximum prices and settle the debt. If there’s a sliver of value left after that, shareholders would get something.

To achieve this, you need a slick sales process. It didn’t get off to a great start, with a truly embarrassing announcement in April that the email address for prospective buyers to register their interest didn’t work for a couple of days. Thankfully, it seems as though buyers had enough perseverance to resubmit their interest, as a “number of participants” have been given access to the virtual data room. Site visits will also be made possible for qualifying potential buyers.

As for the identify of the buyers, this is of course a secret. The fund has indicated that “several listed and unlisted retail-focused property groups” have indicated interest in properties in the fund. That’s no surprise, as Rebosis is a desperate seller and every buyer loves a desperate seller.

Little Bites:

  • Director dealings:
    • GMB Liquidity Corporation is happily mopping up further shares in Grand Parade Investments (JSE: GPL), with several trades worth over R1.75 million in total.
    • An associate of a director of Astoria (JSE: ARA) has bought shares worth R1.06 million.
    • A number of Brimstone (JSE: BRN) directors have cashed in on a specific repurchase of N ordinary shares by the company that were granted as part of a forfeitable share plan. This looks to me like a liquidity mechanism for management to sell shares at the 30-day VWAP.
  • It sounds like a small change, but Tsogo Sun Gaming Limited (JSE: TSG) is looking to change its name to Tsogo Sun Limited. In case you aren’t concentrating, the drop of “gaming” from the name signifies the diversified holdings in various entertainment offerings. Well, that’s according to the company at least. I suspect that is says more about the future strategy than the current portfolio.
  • In case you’re following the progress of Castleview Property Fund (JSE: CVW) as essentially a listed shell for a much larger transaction, you’ll be interested to know that shares worth nearly R270 million have been issued to the subscribers under a specific issue of cash at R6.48 per share. A further R40 million in shares is expected to be issued in July 2023.
  • The new CFO of Accelerate Property Fund (JSE: APF) has been announced. Marelise de Lange has prior experience as CFO of Texton Property Fund, Rebosis Property Fund and Delta Property Fund. I guess that’s an interesting path, if nothing else. The most recent role was as CFO of Delta, so that fund is now looking for a new CFO.

Ghost Bites (Anglo American | Choppies | Ellies | Gold Fields | Impala Platinum | Kibo Energy | Renergen | Textainer)

The Finance Ghost
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Ghost Bites (Anglo American | Choppies | Ellies | Gold Fields | Impala Platinum | Kibo Energy | Renergen | Textainer)

Anglo American looks to raise 10 year USD debt (JSE: AGL)

Here’s your latest data point on the USD yield curve

I find major debt raises very interesting, particularly at the moment when the yield curve is all over the place. The latest example is Anglo American and its intention to raise $900 million in senior notes due in 2033. In other words, this is highly secured funding (from the perspective of the lenders) that Anglo will be able to use for a period of 10 years.

The company is offering to pay 5.5% on these notes, though what usually happens is that pricing is discovered through a bidding process and the final rate is sometimes adjusted. The mechanism to do this is to issue the notes at a discount or premium, depending on where the pricing ended up vs. the 5.5% coupon.

Time will tell whether there is sufficient appetite at Anglo’s intended price.

Choppies clarifies its position (JSE: CHP)

The company has reminded shareholders that it doesn’t own Choppies South Africa

Choppies is upset about an article in the Financial Mail that the company believes made it sound like the listed group could be in discussions with potential acquirers.

The point that the company has clarified is that Choppies South Africa was sold by the group more than three years ago. The new owner was only allowed to use the name for three years, a period that has already expired obviously.

In other words, any speculation related to Choppies South Africa has nothing to do with the listed company.

Ellies needs to be patient for Bundu (JSE: ELI)

The fulfilment date for conditions precedent has been extended

Fun fact: deals take a long time to close. They usually take longer than people expect, which is a great source of annoyance for everyone involved, especially those who are waiting to be paid a success fee. Yes, I speak from experience here!

The latest example is the Ellies acquisition of Bundu Power for up to R202.6 million, a significant deal for Ellies that has come at a premium valuation multiple. Ellies is rather desperate to evolve its business and Bundu Power has found itself in the right darkness at the right time, with Eskom doing wonderful things for the shareholders of that business.

There’s been quite a delay in the implementation of the deal, although no details are given on the source of the delay. The original date for fulfilment of conditions precedent was 30 April 2023, which has clearly come and gone. This has been extended to 31 August 2023.

A windfall for Gold Fields (JSE: GFI)

The company announced a new partnership in Canada

Before getting into the details of this story, I just have to point out this chart and how ridiculous the volatility actually is when it comes to gold miners:

Gold might be a source of returns that aren’t correlated with the rest of the market, but there is absolutely nothing steady about them. The recent chart looks like Zoom in the pandemic!

The latest news from Gold Fields is a partnership with Osisko Mining to develop and mine the Windfall project in Canada. Let’s hope that the name is a sign of things to come, as the investment for a 50% stake is C$600 million and that’s before any of the capital expenditure related to the project.

There are also a couple of exploration projects as part of this deal, with Gold Fields committing to fund the first C$75 million worth of development expenditure on them before the 50-50 split kicks in for remaining expenses.

The Windfall project has a life-of-mine of 10 years (which Gold Fields thinks is conservative) and an all-in sustaining cost (AISC) of $758/oz, which would make it one of the lowest cost mines in the portfolio.

And let’s face it: Canada is a low-risk jurisdiction in which to mine gold, which certainly doesn’t hurt the story.

First production from this asset is expected in 2025.

Impala Platinum’s production is under pressure (JSE: IMP)

We now have data for the nine months to March

Impala Platinum sources its production in various ways, ranging from managed volumes through to joint ventures. When all of that rolls up to the top, total 6E group production volumes fell by 9% for the nine months and sales volumes were 5% lower.

The blame has been laid squarely at the door of “load curtailment” which appears to be the mining industry’s way of describing Eskom’s ongoing failure to do anything useful for South Africa.

Things are tough at the moment for Implats. Full year production is likely to be at the lower end of guidance and unit costs are expected to be at the top end of provided guidance. And against this backdrop, the company is still trying to get the Royal Bafokeng Platinum deal across the line!

Kibo Energy releases interesting test results (JSE: KBO)

Could biofuel be a realistic alternative to conventional coal?

Kibo Energy is hoping to supply solid biofuel as an alternative to conventional coal, targeting international companies in the manufacturing industry.

The company has put its biofuel through testing by accredited laboratories and results are encouraging, with the selected biomass even outperforming conventional coal on some metrics.

After all the manure we’ve dealt with from Eskom, imagine a world where it runs on the stuff? Just kidding – I don’t think that Kibo’s biofuel is made from manure. I stand behind the rest of the sentence, though.

Renergen releases its annual report (JSE: REN)

This is a good opportunity to recap the key points about the company

At this stage, the revenue number in Renergen is a little pointless. Although the company is now selling liquefied natural gas (LNG), revenue of R12.7 million for the year is absolutely insignificant in the context of the Virginia project’s long-term story around helium in particular.

There were a major of key strategic developments in the past financial year, ranging from the successful equity due diligence by the Central Energy Fund through to credit due diligence by the US International Development Finance Corporation and Standard Bank.

I must pause there to point out the importance of the US relationship to Renergen at a time when our government is cozying up to Russia far more than the West. You simply cannot ignore the impact and risks of geopolitics. Renergen is looking to raise capital on the Nasdaq, so there are equity and debt capital raises underway with US counterparts. Critically, a significant source of future demand is the US, particularly given the initiatives in that country to onshore semiconductor (computer chip) production in response to risks around China and Taiwan.

Like I said, you cannot ignore geopolitics with something as strategically important as helium. Risks in Taiwan will drive demand from the US, provided we don’t sour our relations with the West.

As the company works towards commercial operation of the all-important Phase 2 project by 2026, there will be no shortage of volatility. If you want to gain a better understanding of the investment story, my Ghost Stories podcast with CEO Stefano Marani from February 2023 will be useful:

Take note that it was recorded before the details of the IPO were announced. Renergen is looking to raise $150 million during 2023 and doesn’t envisage needing more equity capital for the year after the IPO.

Textainer Group: watch the trend (JSE: TXT)

This is as cyclical a business as you’ll find

In the shipping business (and the related container business that Textainer is in), you need to constantly keep an eye on the numbers. This is the furthest thing from a buy-and-hold industry, as shipping is incredibly cyclical. We’ve seen Grindrod Shipping selling ships to pay down debt and we can now see revenue falling off its peaks at Textainer.

The biggest difference is actually the gain on sale of containers, which was significantly lower in this quarter than in prior quarters. Income from operations was just over $100 million in this period vs. $114 million in the comparable quarter last year. Net income attributable to common shareholders was $53.6 million vs. $72.7 million.

Average fleet utilisation has dropped to 98.8% from 99.7% a year ago.

Against headline earnings of $1.22 per share, the board has declared a dividend of $0.30 per share.

Little Bites:

  • Director dealings:
    • Des de Beer has bought R4.85 million worth of shares in Lighthouse Properties (JSE: LTE).
    • An associate of a director of Rex Trueform (JSE: RTN) has bought N shares worth R214k. N shares in African and Overseas Enterprises (JSE: AON) – part of the same overall group – were also bought with a value of R152k.
  • A non-executive director of Capitec (JSE: CPI) has entered into a huge hedging trade over shares worth R1.46 billion. The put strike price is R1,461 and the call strike is R2,517 per share. The average expiry date on the derivatives is just over 3 years.
  • If you are a shareholder in Absa (JSE: ABG), then you will be interested to know that the circular related to the B-BBEE transaction has been posted. I still think this was a huge missed opportunity to give retail investors another structure to invest in on the market.
  • The delisting of Jasco Electronics (JSE: JSC) is taking longer than planned because of delays in obtaining a compliance certificate from the Takeover Regulation Panel.
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