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Discretionary retailers on the JSE – Part 2

A couple of weeks ago, Chris Gilmour took a detailed look at the non-discretionary retailers on the JSE. This includes the grocery stores and pharmacy chains. Last week, he began a journey into the discretionary retailers on the JSE, focusing on Woolworths in part 1. This week in part 2, Chris looks at Truworths in detail.

Truworths lags both The Foschini Group (TFG) and Mr Price in terms of vision, entrepreneurial flair and the ability to capitalise on market opportunities.

In part, this is probably due to complacency which has sunk into the organisation over many years. It still persists with an addiction to credit-fuelled growth in its main operations, whilst its competitors have long ago gone the predominantly cash route. And while both Mr Price and TFG have recently embarked upon meaningful acquisitions in order to grow their top lines, Truworths has put its excess cash into share buybacks.

Ex-growth under current management

Truworths remains a solid and operationally well-managed business, notwithstanding its ill-conceived foray into the UK retail market with the acquisition of Office six years ago. It remains well-run and offers shoppers a quality experience. However, it has gone ex-growth in recent years and that is unlikely to change under current management direction.

A five-year share price chart certainly tells a story:

Long-time CEO Michael Mark will be retiring this year after over thirty years at the helm of the business. Generally speaking, he has had a good record in running the company, but Truworths now finds itself, in my opinion, at a watershed. Its products, although high-quality in the main, are perhaps priced somewhat too optimistically for the emerging middle-class market.

A generous separation

During the three decades of Michael Mark’s tenure, Mr Price has had four CEOs and TFG has had five. Mark was destined to retire from the job in the middle of last decade and his successor, Jean-Christophe Garbino, was named as CEO-designate and should have succeeded him in 2015. But the arrangement didn’t work out and Garbino abruptly resigned. To this day, no satisfactory explanation has been given for his departure, other than a comment in the Sunday Times from Mark that “it just didn’t work out”.

Garbino received payment in the amount of R25 million as compensation for loss of office on resignation as an executive director of the company on 4 December 2015. By the time he left he had attended three board meetings and received salary and benefits worth R2.2 million. This was a remarkably generous separation package by the Truworths board for someone who had scarcely set foot in the business.

Prior to his extremely short tenure at Truworths, Garbino had spent 22 years at Kiabi, a French budget fashion retailer, the last seven years of which being as CEO of the company. Perhaps his experience at Kiabi would have served him well had he stayed and set Truworths on a potentially different course. But that is in the realms of speculation and we will never know.

Although there has been a temporary improvement in certain of Truworths metrics in financial 2021, thanks to a favourable base effect when making comparisons with 2020, longer-term erosion is still intact. 

Unless Truworths can change its top management direction, and quickly, it will likely see its financial metrics deteriorate even further and lose more ground to its competitors. This is reflected in the very poor rating of the share. On a Price/Earnings ratio of only 8.3x, Truworths is the second cheapest share in the retail sector.

The Primark trademark fight

A couple of years ago, Truworths started using the Primark label in South Africa, on the grounds that it hadn’t been used for at least five years by the Irish parent company and thus it had ceased to be protected. And although Truworths has won the first round in court, I believe that Primark will eventually win back its right of use from Truworths. There are at least two relatively recent precedents in SA law that inform us that Truworths is in the wrong.

It is understandable why Truworths wants to use the Primark label. Like Zara and H&M, it is lower-end and appeals to customers who want fashion at an extremely low price. And like Zara and H&M, it would probably gain a loyal following in SA very quickly for all the reasons mentioned earlier. Most importantly, it allows Truworths to gain a foothold in the lower-end fashion segment that is currently dominated by Mr Price and TFG. In so doing, it would be able to increase its top line.

Most, if not all of Primark’s South African customers would be totally oblivious of the fact that there is no relationship between Primark in SA and the real multinational Primark. This might backfire on Truworths in the longer term if South African customers access the genuine Primark website and discover that products shown there are not available in SA.

Source: Primark website

Primark, a subsidiary of Associated British Foods (ABF), first registered its Primark brand in SA in 1976 and to date has never used the trademark in SA. In South African law, a third party such as Truworths can cancel a trademark if it has not been used for five years. In 2018 Truworths filed a cancellation action against Primark’s registration for the Primark trademark on the grounds that this trademark was not subject to use. In the action at the time, Primark’s counter-argument was that, because Primark is an internationally well-known brand, the non-use of the trademark was irrelevant and that Primark’s registration should be protected from cancellation.

However, the Supreme Court of Appeal (SCA) disagreed, finding that although the Primark brand was well-known in the UK and elsewhere, it was not well-known in SA. Therefore it did not qualify for protection if it had not been used for five years.

But there was a sting in the tail that could ultimately be negative for Truworths in the longer term. The SCA commented on Truworths’ dishonest motivations and approach. In the initial court papers, Truworths stated that it only wanted to use the Primark label on some clothing lines without actually opening a chain of Primark stores. It has become clear that Truworths does indeed intend opening a chain of Primark stores.  At end-June 2021, 11 Primark stores were operating in South Africa.

A similar legal situation can be found in the case of McDonalds, the well-known multinational fast-food chain in its actions against George Charalambous and his partner Chicken Licken founder George Sombonos. The two Georges attempted to use the McDonald’s trademark in SA in the 1990s on the grounds of non-use of the trademark. While they were partially successful in being allowed to use a slightly different version of the name (MacDonald’s instead of McDonald’s), Charalambous and Sombonos lost on appeal in 1996 and McDonald’s won the rights to use all of their own trademarks in SA.

Closer to Truworths’ business is the case of LA Retail vs the US Polo Association (USPA). LA Retail, a South African apparel producer, had produced copycat versions of the Ralph Lauren-owned Polo brand products in SA for many years. The only difference between Ralph Lauren’s original logo with two polo-playing horsemen and LA’s logo was that in the Ralph Lauren products, the players faced right and in the LA logo they faced left. LA and Ralph Lauren had an agreement going back many decades that they could use this arrangement in SA and both parties appeared to be happy.

But in 2019, the USPA and its SA affiliate Stable Brands (Pty) Ltd won an important legal battle against LA Group in terms of which over 40 LA Group trademarks using Polo in the name were required to be cancelled and expunged in the trademark register in SA.

Although Truworths has won the first round in its attempt to retain the use of the Primark label in SA, it should be noted that Primark intends to take “whatever steps are necessary to protect its trademark and hard-earned reputation” – Primark and ABF are formidable opponents. Not only is Primark a true multinational retailer, but parent company ABF has long-established links in many countries, including South Africa. It knows the South African corporate and legal landscape well and Primark will no doubt be well aware of the potential for its brand in South Africa.

I believe that the fight for Primark’s right of use of trademark in SA is far from over and that ultimately, Primark will win. In this event, Truworths will have to find an entirely new avenue for tapping into the lower-end fashion market. Truworths already has a lower-end fashion chain called Identity that could presumably be used to increase the group’s top line.

It therefore seems surprising that Truworths would want to go the potentially hazardous route of using a multinational brand such as Primark without the owner’s permission.

Next week, Chris will deal with more of the discretionary retailers on the JSE, like Mr Price, TFG and Pepkor.

Ghost Global (Ford | TSM | Berkshire fossil fuels | Costco | Twitter)

Ghost Global is a new weekly segment that will be brought to you by the Ghost Grads on a rotational basis. This week, Jordan Theron updates us on earnings from some significant US companies.

Ford: feeling a little fragile?

Ford sold 152,262 vehicles in June, up 31.5% year-on-year. This was due to the increase in truck and SUV deliveries and its new all-electric pickup trucks. Whilst this is positive, US auto industry sales are down 11%, showing difficulties replenishing car dealerships and high levels of inflation forcing buyers out of the market.

For the first 6 months of 2022, sales were down 8% reflecting the current supply chain crisis dogging the global economy. This problem has led to decreasing inventory levels.

Can the old-time heavyweight giant pull its weight with its shiny new F 150 and take on the likes of Tesla, VW, and Toyota? With a YTD share price performance of -46%, they’re going to need to start finding their feet in this increasingly competitive electric car market.

Pass the chips

With the world becoming increasingly reliant on technology, Taiwan Semiconductor Company (TSM) is a stock you should care about even if you don’t own it.

TSM produces semiconductor chips which are used in everything from cellphones and cars to rocket ships. They reported better than expected earnings, with June sales up 18.5% YOY and revenue for the 6 months to June being $34.41 billion.

Even though the stock is down 36% YTD, it has produced a share price CAGR of 17.6% over 5 years.

The threat to TSM is a potential drop in demand for its chips, either due to lower consumer demand or oversupply in the market. TSM has to invest a huge amount of capital in R&D and facilities that manufacture chips (known as a “semiconductor fab”), which leaves the company exposed to supply / demand dynamics. Political tensions with mainland China also can’t be ignored.

With the full June quarter results coming out later this week, this is a stock you will want to keep an eye on.

Warren Buffett and fossil fuels

Its pretty hard to talk about investing in the stock market without talking about the legendary Warren Buffett. From delivering newspapers to becoming the Oracle of Omaha, Buffett has had arguably the largest impact on the investing world of anyone. He is the CEO of Berkshire Hathaway, which recently increased its stake in Occidental Petroleum to 18.7%, an investment valued at around $11 billion after the rapid spike in the oil price. The brent crude oil price has risen from as low as $72/barrel to as high $120/barrel this year.

This rise can be attributed to various factors such as poor energy policies from western countries, an increase in demand after the pandemic and a supply crunch from the conflict in Ukraine. We may be suffering at the pumps, but the big oil companies are printing money at a rate that even Jerome Powell would be impressed by.

Occidental Petroleum is up 110% this year and is trading on a Price/Earnings multiple of around 9x. Despite huge inflationary consequences for consumers around the world from the current oil price, Buffett clearly doesn’t see that trend slowing down. Is he too eager about this cycle, or is he slowly capitalising on an opportunity we are all ignoring due to the new climate change agenda?

Costco is cashing in

The famous value retailer has released strong monthly sales numbers for June, beating expectations with net sales jumping 20.4% YOY to $22.78 billion. This is further proof of the slow and steady winning of market share from its competitors in a difficult economic environment.

The really impressive number is the 18.1% increase in same store sales, which beat Wall Street expectations of 14.1%. With its business model focusing on membership fees to help subsidise great in-store prices, as well as cheaper gasoline (Jordan lives in the US so he’s using the right term here!) to entice customers to purchase more goods, it seems Costco might just have found its sweet spot in this fragile economy.

This recent success has led to speculation about a potential cash dividend to reward shareholders with the balance sheet looking juicier than normal, making this proudly American company one to keep an eye on.

Turmoil at Twitter

Who can forget the buzz created in the streets (both tarred and virtual) by the announcement that Elon Musk offered to buy Twitter for $44 billion?

With an increasingly political and polarizing environment in the US, this created massive waves with most Republicans praising the South African-born Musk’s free speech stance vs the Democrats crying wolf about his increasing global influence due to his enormous wealth and more libertarian approach to public policy.

He has recently notified Twitter of his intention to withdraw his offer due to Twitter’s inability to validate that less than 5% of its accounts are spam or bots. Interestingly, this has resulted in a 2% rise in Tesla stock while leading to a drop in Twitters stock by 5% in day trading and another 5% overnight.

Twitter has become a controversial platform for many reasons which we need not mention, but it should provide for some good entertainment in the coming months with Twitter’s plan to legally bind Musk to his original offer.

Only time will tell what will happen to the public town square of the new world, but for now a cautious approach is best with Twitter stock.

Magic Markets Premium – expand your universe

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Ghost Bites Vol 44 (22)

Corporate finance corner (M&A / capital raises)

  • You may recall that Remgro and MSC Mediterranean Shipping Company made a rather surprising offer for Mediclinic at the beginning of June. The board of the hospital group told the billionaire families exactly where to put that offer, possibly with medical assistance if needed. Since then, there have been four more proposals of which three were rejected. The fourth one is far more interesting, valuing Mediclinic at 504 pence per share. This is a 35% premium to the price on the day before the initial offer was made. The latest offer is 8.9% higher than the initial proposal. The independent board has noted that if this becomes a firm offer, they would be willing to recommend it to shareholders. As UK law applies here, there is a colourfully-named “put up or shut up” clause (no, really) that requires Remgro and MSC to either make a firm intention offer by 4th August or walk away. Although there is still no guarantee of a deal here, a 8.6% jump in the share price on Thursday shows you how the market feels. At the current exchange rate, that’s a potential offer of R101.20 per share vs. the closing Mediclinic price of R94.90.
  • This Groupe Canal+ / MultiChoice thing just isn’t going away. The French media company has bought even more shares in MultiChoice, taking its stake to over 20%. We would have called that a “significant minority” stake in my investment banking days, which is the level at which things are starting to get serious. We don’t know what the intention is with this MultiChoice investment, but companies don’t build up a 20% holding with no plan in mind. Canal+ is owned by Vivendi, a listed French media giant with a market cap of €10 billion (around 3.5x the size of MultiChoice).
  • Bidvest has acquired 100% of BIC Australia, which has nothing to do with those orange pens that most of us held at some point in time in our school careers. For the younger readers, there was a world before iPads believe it or not! BIC Australia is a private company that offers integrated facilities management services. Cleaning services are at the core, with a full range of hygiene, waste and similar services offered. The client base is primarily A-grade offices in New South Wales. The price is based on an enterprise value for BIC Australia of R1.8 billion, which is the value of assets in the business less any excess cash. The actual cash payment would depend on how much debt is in the business vs. equity. Bidvest is paying for this with the proceeds from the bond issuance in October 2021. The management team have signed service agreements and remain committed to the business.
  • Alexander Forbes announced in March that Prudential Financial (listed on the New York Stock Exchange) had agreed to acquire 14.83% in the company from Mercer Africa, a subsidiary of Marsh McLennan Companies Incorporated (also listed on the NYSE). The deal has closed and the price was R5.05 per share excluding the dividend declared on 6th June and payable on 11th July. Prudential also intended to make a partial offer to other shareholders if the Mercer deal went ahead, which is now the case. A partial offer takes Prudential to a maximum 33% stake in Alexander Forbes, below the 35% threshold that triggers a mandatory offer. ARC Financial Services holds 41.47% of Alexander Forbes and will not accept the partial offer. A circular will be sent out in due course with the terms of the partial offer.
  • Sirius Real Estate has completed the sale of its £16 million BizSpace Camberwell business park in London. The net initial yield is only 2%, which means the selling price was really high. In fact, Sirius achieved a 94% premium to what it paid for the asset in November 2021! Full marks to Sirius here – the company has made a song and dance about its ability to create value through active management of assets and we’ve seen it come through in this sale.
  • Life Healthcare has registered a R7 billion Domestic Medium Term Note Programme Memorandum with the JSE. If you’re interested in what a debt raise on the JSE looks like, you’ll find all the documents at this link.

Earnings updates

  • Deutsche Konsum REIT is one of those almost pointless listings on the JSE, as the stock practically never trades. Nonetheless, the group gives us insights into the convenience retail property market in Germany. That’s rather niche, I know. The fund has acquired six more properties on an initial acquisition yield of 8.6% with a vacancy rate of 1.6%. In the current financial year, the fund has managed to acquire 21 properties at an average initial yield of 8.5%. The fund also managed to sell five properties on which it made a gain. The total portfolio is 179 properties. As Deutsche Konsum offers such interesting exposure to the German market, it’s a pity that there is no trade on the JSE.

Share buybacks and dividends

  • African and Overseas Enterprises as well as Rex Trueform (separately listed but part of the same group) have declared dividends on their 6% cumulative preference shares. I’m not close to the detail on this group but I did notice that the African and Overseas Enterprises preference shares are “participating” preference shares, which means they can achieve a return above the 6% coupon depending on the terms of the shares and what triggers that participation.

Notable shuffling of (expensive) chairs

  • There’s another senior change at York Timber, this time with the resignation of the company secretary after a period of 9 years at York.
  • Woolworths has appointed Nombulelo Moholi as Lead Independent Director. Ms Moholi has served on the board in a non-executive capacity since July 2014.
  • AngloGold Ashanti has appointed Ian Kramer as Interim CFO after the retirement of Christine Ramon. The company is following a “comprehensive international search process” for a permanent CFO. Kramer is an internal appointment and will no doubt be hoping that the international process comes up empty.
  • Netcare’s Chair Thevendrie Brewer has resigned as her family have decided to emigrate. I guess load shedding was the last straw. Ms Brewer has been in that role since April 2018 and on the board since 2011. Netcare hasn’t announced a new Chair yet.

Director dealings

  • An entity related to the CFO of Famous Brands has bought CFDs on Famous Brands worth over R825k. This is a pretty serious punt at the shares and ties up with what I’m seeing from the property REITs who have commented on how “entertainment” tenants are having a far happier time of things at the moment.
  • The recent insider buying at Raubex has been something to behold. The latest purchase is significant – a R700k acquisition of shares by the recently appointed CEO of the group.
  • Another company that has seen regular buying by directors is Kaap Agri. The latest purchase is by a non-executive director to the value of R145k.
  • Value Capital Partners is still piling into PPC shares, with around R9 million worth of shares acquired in the past three days. We know about this because there are directors on the PPC board appointed by Value Capital Partners as an anchor shareholder. The share price had a huge day, closing over 15% higher. Even with that move, it’s still nearly 40% down this year.
  • Telkom directors received shares in the company and appear to have run for the hills, with major disposals by several directors. The announcement doesn’t say that this sale was a portion of the share-based awards in order to cover taxes payable, so I’ll assume that this was an outright sale because they don’t want the shares. At least I have something in common with Telkom directors, because goodness knows I don’t want the shares either.

Unusual things

  • I can see that Kibo Energy is one of those companies that will announce every step of its journey in the renewables space, much like Renergen does with its projects. To be fair, investors in these types of businesses tend to hang on every word. In this case, the news is that Kibo has committed to purchase the first two proof of concept CellCube batteries that use fancy technology. Kibo has a strategic framework agreement with CellCube to deploy long-duration energy solutions in Southern Africa.
  • With Irongate (the old Investec Australia Property Fund) leaving the market as part of the buyout by Charter Hall, Fairvest B shares have been promoted to the FTSE/JSE Capped Property Index. This means that Fairvest will be bought by any ETFs tracking the index.
  • Although it comes through as director dealings, the disposal of R13.8 million worth of shares in Finbond by Protea Asset Management LLC is actually an unbundling of shares to the underlying investors in that fund. Protea is linked to Sean Riskowitz who sits on the Finbond board.
  • MiX Telematics has raised a R350 million general credit facility from Investec and an uncommitted general credit facility of $10 million.

Who’s doing what this week in the South African M&A space?

Exchange Listed Companies

In May, a consortium comprising Remgro and MSC Mediterranean Shipping Company proposed to the Board of Mediclinic International a possible cash offer to acquire the Mediclinic shares not already held by Remgro at a price of 463 pence (R88.43) per share. The proposal was rejected on the grounds that the offer significantly undervalued Mediclinic and its prospects. At the time, Remgro which currently holds a 44.6% stake in Mediclinic, said that it would consider its position. This week Mediclinic announced it would progress with talks on the consortium’s fourth proposal which values Mediclinic shares at 504 pence per share – a premium of 23% to the share price of 411 pence on June 7, the day prior to market speculation. In line with regulations, the consortium must make a firm offer by August 4, 2022.

Bidvest has announced the acquisition of B.I.C. Services, a niche integrated facilities management services provider across office, commercial and education sites. The acquisition is for an enterprise value of A$160 million (R1,8 billion). It has been some time since a South African corporate has made an acquisition in Australia, not surprising given the poor track record of those who have gone before.

Huge has acquired Tethys Mobile, currently in Business Rescue, from shareholders and creditors for an undisclosed sum. Once implemented, Huge will change the name to Huge Digital Enablement. Tethys was SA and Africa’s first mobile virtual network operator when it launched to the market in 2006.

Deutsche Konsum REIT-AG (DKR) has acquired a portfolio of six mainly food-anchored local retail properties in Saxony and Saxony-Anhalt. The properties which have a combined rental area of 9,000sqm were acquired for c.€9,2 million.

Both Delta Property Fund and Texton Property Fund have notified shareholders that property transactions announced in 2021 have been terminated due to the inability of the purchasers to fulfil conditions precedent. Properties in question were the sale by Texton to Stonehill Property Group of the Forestrust and Loop Street Properties for an aggregate consideration of R397 million and the disposal by Delta of the Fort Drury and Sediba properties to Central Plaza Investments 199 for R76,5 million.

Unlisted Companies

Lonsa Everite, together with black-owned and managed South African private equity firm Legacy Africa Capital Partners and Swartland management, have acquired 100% of the issued shares in Swartland Investments and Swartland Insulation, as well as the freehold properties. Swartland is a manufacturer and supplier of wooden and aluminum doors and windows, garage doors as well as XPS insulation and cornices. The business operates in Southern Africa, the UK and the US. The transaction value of c.R1,3 billion was funded through a combination of equity, vendor deferred payment agreement and R660 million of debt financing.

In another deal, Legacy Africa Capital Partners has invested an undisclosed sum in power solutions provider Continuous Power Africa (CPA). The investment will accelerate CPA’s expansion into new markets beyond telecommunications and grow its range of products.

Fintech startup Sava Africa, a local spend-management platform, has raised US$2 million in pre-seed funding. The platform combines bank accounts, mobile wallet, payments, accounting integrations and invoice and expense management tools. The round was led by Quona Capital with participation from Breega, CRE Ventures, Ingressive Capital, RaliCap, Unicorn Growth Capital and Sherpa Ventures. Funds will be used to launch its product in South African and Kenya.

Alaris, which delisted from the JSE in February this year, has expanded its footprint in Europe with the acquisition of Kuhne electronic, a German electronics engineering company. Financial details were undisclosed.

DealMakers is SA’s M&A publication
www.dealmakerssouthafrica.com

Who’s doing what in the African M&A space?

DealMakers AFRICA

Firering Strategic Minerals plc, an exploration company focusing on critical minerals, has increase its stake in the Atex Lithium Tantalum Project in Côte d’Ivoire from 51% to 77%. A 10% stake was acquired in exchange for 1,158,200 shares valued at €88,672 and a further 16% for €320,000 in cash. The company has an option to acquire the remaining 23%.

Dutch energy and commodity trading company Vitol has entered into a joint venture with the Nigeria Sovereign Investment Authority to invest in a range of high integrity, socially impactful, carbon avoidance and removals projects in Nigeria. The companies will make an initial commitment of US$50 million and will partner with local NGOs.

CFAO Kenya has made an undisclosed investment in OFGEN, a leader of solar PV installation for commercial and industrial use in East Africa.

Autochek Africa, an e-commerce company headquartered in Lagos, has acquired CoinAfrique, a Mauritian-based classified ad marketplace, serving francophone African markets. The deal will accelerate the penetration of Autochek’s auto financing services in French-speaking Africa.

In a non-binding offer, SODIC a real estate and community development company, is to make a cash acquisition of Cairo headquartered state-owned developer Madinet Nasr Housing & Development through a mandatory tender offer. The offer is for an indicative purchase price in the rage of EGP3.20 and EGP 3.40 per share, representing a 28-%36% premium, valuing the company at c.EGP6,18 billion (US$328 million). SODIC will undertake a due diligence.

Paymee, a Tunisa-based fintech startup offering specialising in digitising payment flows that offer online payment acceptance solutions, has raised six-figure funding in a round led by P1 Ventures. Funds will be used to accelerate its product development and offering.

Kenyan startup Duhqa, a last mile end to end supply chain and distribution technology platform enabling manufacturers, retailers and individuals to buy and sell conveniently, has closed a US$2 million seed round from participants CrossFund, Roselake Ventures and Mo Angels, among others. The funds will be used to scale its service offerings in East Africa.

Cameroonian importer and distributor of petroleum products BOCOM Petroleum SA, has secured a €50 million financing package through the International Finance Corporation. The financing will be used to expand access to liquified petroleum gas in Cameroon.

DealMakers AFRICA is the Continent’s M&A publication
www.dealmakersafrica.com

Weekly corporate finance activity by SA exchange-listed companies

This week was all about repurchases, with companies taking advantage of weaker stock prices to buy back their own shares from the marketplace.

Last week Naspers and Prosus announced the start of an open-ended share repurchase programme of Naspers and Prosus shares. The companies have since announced that during the period 28 June to July 1, 2022, a total of 4,266,596 Prosus shares were acquired for an aggregate €264,3 million and 527,276 Naspers shares for R1,24 billion.

During the period May 27, 2022 to June 30, 2022, Barloworld repurchased 6,004,502 shares for an aggregate value of R548,38 million. The general repurchase represents 3% of the company’s issued share capital. The shares will be delisted and cancelled. Following the cancellation, Barloworld will hold 3,194,290 ordinary shares as treasury shares representing 1.64% of the companies issued ordinary shares.

Investec Ltd has repurchased 942,642 preference shares representing 3.06% of the company’s issued preference share capital. The preference shares were repurchased at prices between R94.33 and R97.79 for an aggregate value of R90,5 million.

Santova has applied to the JSE for the cancellation of 1,329,736 shares held as treasury shares following the repurchase at an average price of R4,24. Following the cancellation of the shares the remaining share capital of the company will be 137,440,516 shares.

This week British American Tobacco repurchased 1,060,000 shares for a total of £37,33 million. The purchased shares will be held in treasury with the number of shares permitted to be repurchased set at 229,400,000.

Glencore this week repurchased 7,860,000 shares for a total consideration of £33,54 million in terms of its existing buyback programme which is expected to end in August 2022.

This week one company issued a profit warning. The company was Trellidor.

One company this week issued or withdrew a cautionary notice. The company was Aveng.

DealMakers is SA’s M&A publication
www.dealmakerssouthafrica.com

Thorts: Stemming the JSE delisting deluge

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South Africa’s public market is broken. In the past 30 years, the number of listed companies has more than halved from 760 to about 330.

Worryingly, the trend appears to be gaining momentum. No less than 25 delistings occurred in 2021 (with just seven new listings in the same period), and at least a further 21 delistings are already anticipated for 2022 – and we’re only at the beginning of the second quarter.

We must fix this situation and arrest this delisting trend. Everyone involved in investment banking needs to realise that this trend is a threat to their livelihoods. This is now a matter of urgency, because it is likely that the local public markets will enter something akin to a death spiral, where an ever-diminishing pool of very large listed companies is matched by an ever diminishing pool of ever larger asset managers, sucking the oxygen out of the market and stifling new entrants – both new listed companies and new investors.

Dynamic, lively public markets are required, not only to provide savings and investment opportunities, but also to underpin the growth and investment that is so desperately needed to support South Africa’s economic development and, of course, all-important job creation. It goes without saying that a public market in a death spiral will eventually also offer meagre opportunity to investment bankers.

While at a micro level, the JSE itself is an easy target for ascribing the blame for this crisis, the real structural cause has less to do with listing red tape, supposed high costs, or cyclical share prices, and everything to do with the systematic institutionalisation of the country’s savings and investment industry over the past three decades.

Investment on the JSE has become increasingly exclusionary.

Of course, the imperative to fix the delisting crisis in this country goes beyond providing investors with access to a diversity of investment options; the capital needs of the businesses themselves must be met by the public markets too. For the private investor in South Africa, opportunities to provide primary capital to newly listed companies have become increasingly few and far between. And the habit of companies and their advisors to structure listings to avoid the obscure JSE Listing Requirement 5.18 appears partly to blame.

Simply put, Requirement 5.18 states that if an offer of shares to the public is oversubscribed, the allocation of the available shares must be done equitably. It was created to ensure that when a general offer is made, like an initial public offering (IPO), large institutions don’t have an unfair advantage over smaller institutions, or the investor in the street. This is in line with the financial sector’s own charter to which all banks and many other advisors are party, and which has, as one of its objectives, the realisation of a more equitable financial sector – especially in terms of promoting the interests of those who have historically been excluded.

All of which begs the question: Why is Requirement 5.18 so obscure that the only people aware of its existence are regulatory managers studying towards their JSE sponsor executive exam?

The answer is that JSE Listing Requirement 5.18 has not been applied to any new listings for at least the past decade. It was last applied three times in 2010 and just once in 2012.

If the financial services sector deliberately excludes the public from most primary capital raising opportunities, largely for reasons only of timing and convenience, then they should not wonder why there is not a pool of smaller investors available to provide the oxygen that the market so desperately requires.

This exclusionary trend has also been driven by institutional investors who have what is known as an ‘acceptable limit’ on the size and liquidity of the companies targeted for investment by their asset managers – which generally translates to the largest 80 to 120 companies only. That’s not to say that those institutional investors are solely to blame, however, as it is the regulations within which they operate that are at the heart of the problem.

For example, a unit trust fund is typically required to return cash to an investor within 24 hours of receiving a request to withdraw funds. Delivering on this high liquidity expectation is a challenge for most funds. Not only is the minimum settlement period for disinvestment from a large liquid listed entity three business days, but selling out of a position in a smaller listed company can easily take as long as a week or two. This inherent liquidity mismatch exists in every collective investment scheme and is replicated across other types of institutional funds.

This size and liquidity bias means that the larger the fund gets, the fewer individual counters it can consider for investment. This compounds the death spiral as funds have been getting larger and, as a result, the number of counters in their acceptable investment universe has been shrinking.

The economics of personal stockbroking have also collapsed, and many stockbrokers have spent the last decade transforming into regulated wealth managers, which has involved moving most of their clients into index benchmarked model portfolios or institutionally managed collective investment schemes, with the remainder moved on to no-service, no-advice, secondary trading-only digital platforms.

Add to this the fact that an ever-increasing proportion of investing is now index-linked, and it is clear that South Africa’s financial sector has firmly turned away from both direct investment by smaller investors and investment into smaller listed entities.

It’s obvious that a massive bias in favour of ‘the large and the liquid’ has been designed into our entire institutional savings industry. That means that any company outside of the top 120 listed on the JSE receives very little interest from our institutional investors. The same institutional investors have, in turn, assimilated many small direct investors, in part through gatekeeping the access to tax incentives.

The solution: De-institutionalise our markets.

Irrespective of the answers to these questions, the reality we must face is that South Africa’s capital market is simply no longer fit for purpose, especially for a resource rich economy. This is clear when you compare the South African market to those in the UK, Canada and Australia.

As is the case in this country, individuals in those countries are given tax incentives to save. These range from tax deductions on pension contributions to deferment of capital gains tax in collective investment schemes. In South Africa, we have gone one step further and introduced tax free savings accounts that attract no tax at all.

The difference, however, is that South Africans are only able to access these tax incentives if they save in an institutional fund and pay an institution to manage the assets.

In contrast, UK, Australian and Canadian individual investors have the option of benefitting from these tax breaks through self-directed, self-invested or self-managed investment accounts, in which they can hold a wide range of assets, including stocks and shares.

By compelling South Africans to access these incentives only through institutions, we have choked off access to capital for smaller listed companies. Is it any wonder, then, that smaller companies don’t perceive any benefit to listing, or staying listed, on the JSE?

It is clear that any solution has to start with de-institutionalising our savings market. This demands a primary focus on the ‘bottom of the pyramid’, namely the general public. Meaningful incentives to save are needed, but in a way that gives individuals the right to choose where and how they save and invest. Most individuals will continue to save through institutions, but we must remove the monopoly that institutions currently enjoy on the access to tax incentives, if we are to save the very market on which they depend.

In 1992, the Jacobs Committee laid the basis for the next three decades of financial sector reform in South Africa. It proposed much of the legislative and regulatory scaffolding on which our savings industry now rests. Importantly, it investigated the ‘attainment of a level playing field for competing financial intermediaries (i.e. banks, life assurers and asset managers) in the country’. It did not, however, include consideration of the same levels of fairness for private direct investors and, as a result, it has inadvertently contributed to the steady shrinkage of the JSE that we have seen ever since.

The time has come for another Jacobs Committee, this time to investigate levelling the playing field between institutional and direct investors, with the objective that both should at least be afforded the same investment opportunities, be taxed on the same basis, and have the ability and incentive to support new listings of smaller companies seeking access to equity capital.

The time has come to de-institutionalise our stock exchange and get the investing public back into the public market. If we don’t, we may well end up with a bourse comprising only 120 or so large, liquid companies. And that will certainly be of no benefit to anyone.

Paul Miller is a Director of AmaranthCX.

This article first appeared in Catalyst, DealMakers’ private equity magazine.

DealMakers is SA’s M&A publication
www.dealmakerssouthafrica.com

Ghost Bites Vol 43 (22)

Corporate finance corner (M&A / capital raises)

  • Huge Group decided to use SENS to tell us that they have a new corporate identity and website. Isn’t that exciting? More importantly, Huge is going to buy the remnants of the Virgin Mobile South Africa business, which entered business rescue in 2020. Huge wants the software and technology platform in order to create a Platform-as-a-Service business targeting organisations wanting to operate as mobile virtual network operators. This effectively bails out post-commencement creditors of Tethys (the entity holding the business). No indication of price has been given.
  • Irongate has achieved the final legal steps needed for the acquisition by Charter Hall, with the scheme set to become effective on Friday, 15th July. If you’re an Irongate shareholder, you’ll be receiving some cash this month!
  • Insimbi Industrial Holdings is rationalising its operations and has decided to either sell or close Insimbi Plastics. These decisions are never easy. Labour unions have already been consulted and Insimbi will now look for a buyer of the assets or the business. If someone buys the business, one would hope that the jobs will be saved.
  • Raubex and Bauba Resources have released the joint circular to shareholders regarding Raubex’s general offer of R0.42 per share and the potential delisting of Bauba from the JSE. If you’re interested, you can find the circular here.
  • Buffalo Coal Corp is one of those zombie companies on the JSE that simply never trades. With control of the company having changed hands, Investec has demanded full repayment of all outstanding loans. This is an amount of nearly R54 million. The new owner (Belvedere Resources) would need to provide the funding required to settle this and will be making a proposal to Investec.

Earnings updates

  • Trellidor has released a trading statement for the year ended June 2022. The Labour Court judgement against Trellidor has driven the board to provide for a financial impact of R32.1 million, which is terrible for a group with a market cap of R271 million. This is because the company had to reinstate 42 employees with back-pay to January 2017. Trellidor has lodged an appeal to the Constitutional Court, which has not yet responded to the appeal. The amount is so high that Trellidor didn’t pay an interim dividend and had to secure bank funding to cover the full cost. Importantly, Trellidor remains both liquid and solvent despite this. Headline earnings per share (HEPS) is expected to be at least 50% lower because of this issue. Interestingly, the share price has hardly dropped since March when the news of this judgement broke, possibly due to low liquidity in the stock. Another argument is that major shareholders may believe strongly in the appeal to the highest court in the land.
  • Mantengu Mining has released results for the year ended February 2022. There’s been no revenue for the past two years as this entity is just a “cash shell” on the JSE. The company is in the process of acquiring Langpan Mining Company in a reverse takeover, a common use for a cash shell. This is a quicker way to list a business than going the route of a new listing.

Share buybacks and dividends

  • Naspers and Prosus have gotten off to a good start with their respective share repurchase programmes that kicked off at the end of June. Naspers has repurchased R1.25 billion worth of shares and Prosus has repurchased $276.5 million in shares. It’s a pity that the share prices are up so sharply in the past month, as the repurchases could’ve been done at a far lower price.
  • There’s a dividend from Nampak, but only if you have access to the VIP section of the bar. This is where the preference shareholders hang out. They usually get their dividends before ordinary shareholders. In exchange for that higher level of certainty around the yield, they give up the upside exposure that ordinary shareholders enjoy. The company has two different preference shares in issue, paying 6% and 6.5% per annum respectively.

Notable shuffling of (expensive) chairs

  • With PPC under pressure, it’s worth noting the appointment of Daniel Smith as a non-executive director and member of the strategy and investment committee. Smith was the Head of Corporate Finance for Standard Bank, so he certainly knows his way around complicated deals. He is part of the team at Value Capital Partners, the investment firm that has recently been buying more shares in PPC.

Director dealings

  • Here’s a very important one: an entity associated with the CEO of Tsogo Sun Hotels has bought shares in the company worth R330k. Are things finally turning positive for the tourism industry? In case you clicked on the link to the website and you think I’ve lost my mind, take note that the company is now trading as Southern Sun.
  • There are tiny purchases by a director of Afine Investments, though that may just be a function of the huge bid-offer spread that plagues small caps on the JSE. I tend to highlight even small purchases in companies like these.
  • Directors of Kaap Agri are still buying shares, with transactions this time to the value of R155k.
  • I tend to ignore scenarios where directors are given shares in the company as part of their remuneration. In the case of Lewis, it’s worth mentioning that directors have the option to invest a portion of their net bonus in shares (over and above the usual share-based awards). Several directors have elected to do so.

Unusual things

  • Some companies release the statement that will be made by the chairman at the AGM. Sirius Real Estate is one such company. The statement usually recaps the prior year’s result and gives a short update on the current environment. Sirius is trading “in line with expectations” and is working on “asset recycling” opportunities – selling properties for cash – in order to reduce the level of debt. The chairman reminds us that a large percentage of tenancy agreements include inflation indexations, which means inflationary increases can be passed on to tenants. The share price is down over 40% this year, the fault of a silly market last year rather than the company doing anything wrong.
  • You may not be aware that companies also use the JSE to issue debt instruments, not just equity instruments. The Investec Property Fund has a Domestic Medium Term Note Programme and announced yesterday that it has complied with all financial loan covenants. These are the “promises” made to noteholders, relating to metrics like interest cover and loan-to-value ratio. I’m sharing this update to give you a sense of the different types of capital that can be raised on our market.

Unlock the Stock: Tharisa plc

Unlock the Stock is a platform designed to let retail investors experience life as a sell-side analyst. Companies do a presentation and then we open the floor to an interactive Q&A session, facilitated by the hosts.

I co-host these events with Mark Tobin, a highly experienced markets analyst who combines an Irish accent with deep knowledge in the Australian market (I know, right?) and the team from Keyter Rech Investor Solutions.

You can find all the previous events on the YouTube channel at this link.

The latest event saw Tharisa plc’s executives presenting their business. This is a genuinely interesting mining group, with co-production of platinum group metals (PGMs) and chrome concentrates.

Sit back, relax and enjoy this video recording of our session with Tharisa plc:

Mr Price: worthy of your attention?

The red hat is a familiar sight in South African clothing retail. Mr Price has been on a major acquisition spree recently, so the company is on the radar of investors (and I entered a long position based on recent share price weakness as well). The release of Mr Price’s integrated annual report gave Ghost Grad Jordan Theron a good reason to dig in.

Since its first store opened in 1987, Mr Price has won the hearts of many South Africans. This has been further cemented by their reputation for great value and sponsorship of various sporting events and teams such as the Comrades and Team South Africa at the 2021 Tokyo Olympics.

The share price itself is in need of some sponsorship, down 13.3% over the past year:

A podium-worthy CAGR

Feel-good sponsorships aside, this is a serious business and Mr Price has produced a 36-year sales CAGR (Compound Annual Growth Rate) of 17.5%. This is a remarkable performance, particularly over such a long period. If the US market wasn’t on fire right now, this kind of growth rate would even get US growth investors excited!

I had to dig deep into the investor relations sections of the websites to find this information: Truworths has achieved a 19-year sales CAGR of 15.3% and The Foschini Group has managed 13.2% over a 17-year period. These obviously aren’t directly comparable to the period given by Mr Price, but it’s still interesting to compare them.

Mr Price is hugely popular among shoppers

Over 3 months, Mr Price’s resonance with customers drove customer engagement to such a level that the group is the most shopped fashion retailer in the country, with 5.7 million shoppers. With approximately 35% of South Africa’s population living in rural areas where even Mr Price may not have a presence, this is a particularly impressive statistic in terms of share of (realistic) total addressable market.

Clothes, yes, but also cellphones

The financial services and telecoms segment at Mr Price grew operating profit by 85% in the last financial year. Although this segment may be small, the cellular side of the business grew by 32%. In years gone by, the cellular division barely got mentioned in annual reports.

These days, investors know that clothing retailers have tapped into the lucrative cellphone market. It’s all about having an attractive retail footprint and enough trust from customers to bring them additional products.

Second only to Takealot

Mr Price makes wonderful profits and Takealot still doesn’t. In fact, Takealot even made a loss during the pandemic, which was surely a golden period for online shopping. If you think that Takealot operates in a competitive vacuum and that profits are guaranteed to come, think again.

Mr Price has moved strongly into the online space through capital investments and acquisitions. The group’s share of online traffic is 13.3%, which is second only to Takealot among omni-channel and pure-play retailers. This puts Mr Price ahead of Woolworths and The Foschini Group.

Moving along the LSM curve

In South African retail, a group like Shoprite has shown us the value of operating throughout the LSM curve (i.e. having lower-income and higher-income store formats). Mr Price has made a strong move into the premium market segment, which we know is lucrative in this country.

Mr Price agreed to acquire a 70% stake in Blue Falcon, which owns the Studio 88 Group, from RMB Holdings for R3.3 billion. The deal was announced in mid-April. This is a strategic move to “buy” market share in the more premium and ever-expanding Athleisure segment. Studio 88 is South Africa’s largest independent retailer of branded leisure, lifestyle and sporting apparel, with footwear also included under their umbrella.

Riots, unrest and unhappy things

An assessment of Mr Price wouldn’t be complete without a look at how the group handled the period of despair in 2021 when riots broke out mainly in KwaZulu-Natal. This is the province in which Mr Price has its primary distribution centre.

The riots resulted in 539 stores temporarily closing during that week and 111 remaining closed due to damage. There were 96 stores reopened by end of the 2022 financial year, with five reopening in 2023 and ten in 2024.

After enduring this disaster, Mr Price received R296 million from SASRIA for stock, cash, and fixed asset losses as well as R92 million in business interruption insurance which somewhat mitigated the negative impact.

The future

It’s easy to be pessimistic about South Africa. Mr Price thankfully doesn’t feel that way and is ambitiously growing in the local market, through a combination of acquisitions and organic initiatives.

It’s always a risky strategy, as acquisitions are notoriously difficult to integrate and companies tend to overpay for businesses that they want. Only time will tell how this plays out.

Over the past 10 years, Mr Price has only delivered a share price CAGR of 4.1% which is disappointing. With a goal to become Africa’s largest retailer, could the next 10 years will look different?

Do your own research and decide for yourself!

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