Saturday, December 28, 2024
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Stor-Age picks up another four UK properties

Stor-Age is continuing its expansion in the UK, a market that the company first entered in November 2017. Over that time, the UK brand Storage King has grown from 13 properties to 30.

This time, there’s a deal on the same terms as the existing joint venture arrangement between Stor-Age and Moorfield, which means that the latter will take a 75.1% interest and Stor-Age will take a 24.9% interest in the latest acquisition.

That acquisition is a group of four properties, collectively called Storagebase, for GBP59 million. The properties will be branded and managed by Storage King.

The three mature properties in the portfolio boast an occupancy of more than 90%. They are larger than most properties of this type, which is good for operating margins. These three properties represent a forward yield of around 6.3% and an equity yield of around 13.2%.

The fourth property is only scheduled to open in April 2022. This property is even bigger than the others, so there is significant valuation upside if a mature occupancy level can be achieved.

With this property included, the forward equity yield is 11.6%.

Importantly, Stor-Age has a right of first refusal over any of the properties in case Moorfield wants to exit.

Stor-Age needs to contribute GBP7.5 million in equity to this transaction for its share of the deal. Loan funding will come from Aviva Investors and will be sustainability-linked, so meeting “green” metrics is part of the deal. The debt is for a five-year term and only interest is payable until the eventual maturity date. The loan to value is 55% (so the loan is worth GBP30.8 million) and the cost of a debt is a 225bps margin above the five-year UK gilt rate.

This implies a cost of funding of around 3.53%, which is how a forward yield of 6.3% for the mature properties translates into a much higher equity yield.

This deal is too small to require a shareholder vote or even a detailed terms announcement, so this was a voluntary update to shareholders.

Master Drilling’s results aren’t boring

Master Drilling provides drilling solutions to clients worldwide, which is why results are presented in USD as the reporting currency. These are mining and hydro-electric drilling solutions, not my frequently disappointing attempts to put up a picture for Mrs Ghost.

Naturally, the company benefits from a strong commodities cycle. This has been a feature of the market in recent times. Importantly, the company is also exposed to metals like copper and nickel, which are all the rage as we head towards a future of electric vehicles.

Record revenue in USD has been achieved for the year ended December 2021, up 40% from the prior year. Over 26% of revenue landed in cash from operating activities, so the result was backed up by what all shareholders want to see: money in the bank.

Headline earnings per share (HEPS) measured in USD increased by a whopping 396.2% to 12.9 cents. In ZAR, HEPS was up 349.9% to R1.90. Based on yesterday’s closing price, Master Drilling is trading on a Price/Earnings multiple of 7.8x.

From a free cash flow perspective, cash from operations of USD32.5 million were used to fund USD19.4 million in capex. This is a fairly heavy capex burden, with 43% of the capex invested in expansion and 57% on sustaining the existing fleet.

Debt decreased from US42.1 million to USD32.1 million and the gearing ratio (including cash) improved from 10.3% to 5.8% in 2021.

Moving to a segmental view, the South American business were all between 20% and 30% higher on the revenue line than in the prior year. Utilisation rates improved which also had a positive impact on profitability.

Things are also looking good in Central and North America and the teams in that region are sourcing work in other geographies as well. For example, the North American entity will be used to execute a project in Saudi Arabia.

The most important region remains Africa, with operations in several countries. Again, things look positive overall, and the company is expanding into African countries that meet the investment criteria. There are important technologies being developed and tested in South Africa on certain projects.

The narrative is positive across other markets that Master Drilling operates in, like Scandinavia and India. Master Drilling is investing heavily in Australia and those operations have required more cash than expected.

Master Drilling has erred on the side of caution when it comes to a dividend. Despite this strong result and a solid pipeline of work, no interim dividend has been declared. The company notes the conflict in Ukraine as the major driver of this decision and has indicated that a special dividend may be on the cards once there is more certainty over global conditions.

With fleet utilisation at 70%, Master Drilling is running below the “required benchmark” of 75% but is nearly there. Critically for investors, the company believes that it can capitalise on this commodity cycle without requiring additional capital investment.

The share price closed 3.6% higher yesterday.

An urgent need to Attacq office vacancies

Attacq is best known for its strategy in the Waterfall precinct between Johannesburg and Pretoria. I think the node makes sense in terms of its location, so I bought shares in Attacq towards the end of last year based on that view and the substantial discount to net asset value per share. So far, so good for my return.

The fund has now released results for the six months ended December 2021. After distributable income per share fell by 57.5% in the same period in 2020, it increased by 33.6% in this period. You don’t need to get the calculator out to figure out that it hasn’t returned to pre-pandemic levels.

Of concern is that the distributable income growth came from the “Other Investments” segment and reflects a dividend received from MAS Real Estate. The Waterfall City distributable income fell by 6% and rest of South Africa fell by 13.5%. The core business is still struggling.

It’s a similar story for the net asset value (NAV) per share, down 26.6% in the prior period and up 7.1% in this period, so it is well below pre-Covid levels. The NAV per share is R16.83, so yesterday’s closing price of R7.37 is a 56% discount to the NAV. One should always treat that NAV with scepticism and assess the underlying assumptions for reasonability, but a large margin for error (i.e. discount) certainly helps and that’s part of why I bought shares in Attacq last year.

Vacancies are important here and Waterfall City has headed firmly in the wrong direction in the past six months. Occupancy in the Collaboration hubs (office properties) was 93.8% at the end of June 2021 and this dropped sharply to 81.6% by the end of the year. The Retail-experience hubs improved slightly, the Logistics hubs remained fully-let and the same is true for the Hotel segment.

Just 9.9% of clients with expired leases were retained in the Collaboration hubs with a rental reversion of -10.1%, which means that the clients who stuck around scored cheaper leases. On the retail side, the retention rate was 79.8% but the rental reversion was -8.1%.

The problem child is clearly the office portfolio, which represents 36.7% of the total portfolio. There’s more space under construction, which isn’t ideal. The longer-term pipeline focuses on residential and logistics properties and is clearly more in line with what the market wants.

Having said that, companies are pushing staff to return to the office and a well-located, mixed-use precinct like Waterfall offers an attractive environment for staff – in my opinion at least!

The gearing has improved considerably, down from 46.3% to 38.0%. A reduction in debt is a good thing in this environment. This was made possible by the sale of the Deloitte head office (R850 million) and the and sale of 50% in various distribution centres to Equites for R444.5 million.

As the property market recovers from Covid, it is encouraging to note a decrease in Covid-related rental discounts of 84.3%. Weighted average trading density has increased by 8.7% after dropping 6.5% in the comparable period, so it has increased to slightly above pre-Covid levels.

The portfolio in Rest of Africa is held with co-shareholder Hyprop Investments and both funds want to sell the portfolio and get the cash back to South Africa.

Despite the substantial increase in distributable income per share, there’s still no interim dividend. Attacq continues to take a conservative approach to its balance sheet. This remains a rather speculative play and I’m holding on.

Disclaimer: the author holds shares in Attacq.

Thungela: the lump of coal you wanted for Christmas

This year, Thungela is up over 84%. In early March, it was trading 8x higher than the levels after the unbundling in June 2021. For those who were happy to invest in coal, this has been far more lucrative than the lump Santa leaves under the tree for the naughty kids. This is the lump you wanted!

The maiden dividend per share is R18.00, which is particularly ridiculous when you consider that Thungela closed below R22 per share immediately after the unbundling. Those who bought in right at the beginning will have almost the entire investment returned to them through this dividend.

The empowerment partners to the structure (the SACO Employee and Nkulo Community Partnership Trusts) will receive R273 million in dividends. This could be life-changing stuff for those involved and I hope that the cash will be applied in such a way that it has a lasting impact.

To describe this business as “cyclical” would be the understatement of the decade. Even with pro-forma numbers for 2020 (which is important as the 2020 numbers on an unadjusted basis aren’t comparable at all as they only include one out of seven operating mines), revenue jumped 45% year-on-year.

Adjusted EBITDA margin was 38% in 2021, as the group managed to cut costs by R3 billion despite adding R8 billion to revenue.

Profit for the year ended December 2021 was R6.9 billion and the balance sheet had R8.7 billion in net cash at the end of 2021.

The scary thing is that it could’ve been even better, but Transnet Freight Rail continues to let the team down with poor performance. It doesn’t help us much to mine all the coal in the world unless our government can help the private sector take the stuff to the ports and export it. In response, Thungela prioritised higher quality coal so that it could send the highest margin product on the trains that were available.

Thungela describes the Transnet problem as being “transient” which sounds far too similar to Jerome Powell describing inflation as “transitory” and we all know how well that is working out in the US.

The company expects thermal coal prices to remain juicy in 2022 thanks to supply-demand imbalances in the market. With a cash-flush balance sheet, Thungela is able to either invest in internal projects or make external acquisitions. Sustainable capital expenditure for 2022 is expected to be between R1.6 billion and R1.8 billion. Strategic projects will need between R100 million and R200 million in 2022, increasing to between R700 million and R900 million by 2024.

We can only imagine what might be possible if we had a working railway system.

Alexander Forbes attracts a major investor

Alexander Forbes closed 24.5% higher on Friday on the news of a new strategic shareholder coming onto the register.

Prudential Financial, listed on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), is acquiring a 15.1% stake in Alexander Forbes (net of treasury shares) from Mercer Africa, a subsidiary of Marsh McLennan Companies Incorporated, which is also listed on the NYSE. That’s a bit of a mouthful, I know.

Don’t make the mistake of confusing this with South African company Prudential, which has subsequently rebranded to M&G Investments. The two are unrelated.

Prudential Financial is 145 years old and has more than USD1.5 trillion in assets under management. The company has a USD350 million strategic investment partnership with LeapFrog Investments to invest in high-growth markets for financial services in Africa. South Africa isn’t really a high-growth market, so there’s a broader African investment thesis going on here. Alexander Forbes services multinational employers across 32 African countries.

We should at least give ourselves a pat on the back for having a solid financial services industry. One major international shareholder is selling and is being replaced by another, which is a show of faith in our country.

To finish thoroughly confusing you with all this prudence going around, the deal with Mercer is subject to approval from the Prudential Authority within the SARB. There are other regulatory hurdles to jump as well, because the South African financial services space is extremely highly regulated (generally a good thing).

In addition to this transaction and assuming it goes ahead, Prudential Financial will make a partial offer to shareholders such that its stake in Alexander Forbes can increase to up to 33% of the issued shares. This is less than 35% and won’t trigger a mandatory offer for all the remaining shares.

ARC Financial Services has already said thank you, but no thank you, so it will be holding on to its 40.6% stake (net of treasury shares) in Alexander Forbes and declining any future offer. The ARC structure is extremely complicated. As a reminder, ARC Investments (the listed ARC company) holds a 49.9% stake in ARC Financial Services via the ARC Fund. If you hold ARC shares, you indirectly hold a stake in Alexander Forbes.

The closing price on the market on Friday was R4.68 and Prudential Financial will pay Mercer R5.25 per share, adjusted for any dividends paid by the company prior to closing. This price is a 26% premium to the 180-day volume weighted average price (VWAP), a meaty premium for a significant minority stake.

Texton is pushing its indirect offshore strategy

Texton has released financial results for the six months to December 2021. The company has walked a difficult strategic road over the years and is now pursuing a strategy of investing in the US market via property funds.

The direct portfolio is valued at R3.3 billion as at 31 December 2021 and the indirect investments amount to R189.2 million. The company describes its strategy as “reinvesting heavily into direct property investments” (in SA and the UK) and investing in high-quality property investments in developed markets with “best-in-class partners” (the US strategy).

Property revenue fell by 29.3% and distributable earnings fell by 56.9% in this period. Headline earnings per share (HEPS) increased by 39.9% though to 15.43 cents. A dividend per share of 10 cents has been declared.

A critical metric in any property fund is net asset value (NAV) per share. This decreased by 1% since December 2020, now at R6.03 per share. The closing price on Friday of R3.75 (up 16.8% on the day) reflects a discount to NAV of 38%.

The vacancies in the SA portfolio increased to 16.6% from 10.5% at 30 June 2021, primarily due to the Transnet Ports Authority not renewing the lease at 30 Wellington Road. Collections in the SA portfolio were 93% and the UK portfolio achieved 100% collections.

I’m personally not convinced by Texton’s US strategy of investing in other funds, as the alternative would be to buy back Texton shares at a deep discount to NAV. Instead, Texton has invested USD4.4 million in the Blackstone Real Estate Income Trust iCapital Offshore Access Fund SPC (and breathe…) and USD7.0 million was invested in Starwood Real Estate Income Trust Offshore Fund SPC.

Texton has also made a GBP2.5 million commitment to an ESG-focused last mile logistics fund in the UK and Western Europe. The key differentiator is that the fund focuses on environmentally friendly solutions for the e-commerce sector.

Texton has identified two further funds to invest in and hopes to conclude the investments by 30 June 2022.

There were some buybacks at least, with just over 3 million shares repurchased at an average of R3.14 per share during the period. That’s tiny compared to the offshore investments, so my comment stands re: buybacks vs. investments in offshore funds.

Over the period, the company sold and transferred four of the eight properties held for sale, realising R398.4 million in cash in the process. Long-term debt was reduced by R127.8 million but only R26.5 million is a permanent decrease. The loan-to-value ratio has improved to 31.2%.

Texton has R342 million cash on hand, which I suspect will mostly find its way into other offshore property funds.

The share price is up around 58% in the past 12 months. The discount to NAV remains substantial and returning cash to shareholders would probably go a long way towards closing it. Texton has other plans, so we will have to see how that pans out.

Unlock the Stock: Astral Foods and Trellidor

Unlock the Stock is a platform designed to let retail investors experience life as a sell-side analyst. Companies do a presentation and then we open the floor to an interactive Q&A session, facilitated by the hosts.

I co-host these events with Mark Tobin, a highly experienced markets analyst who combines an Irish accent with deep knowledge in the Australian market (I know, right?) and the team from Keyter Rech Investor Solutions.

You can find all the previous events on the YouTube channel at this link.

On 17 March 2022, we hosted Astral Foods and Trellidor on the platform. Astral Foods is a mid-cap poultry business that operates in a tough industry known for low margins and high rewards when things go well. Trellidor isn’t just a security door company – this small-cap business has diversified into premium products like shutters and blinds as well.

Sit back, relax and enjoy this video recording of our session with Astral Foods and Trellidor:

Hyprop’s balance sheet is on the mend

Shopping centre REIT Hyprop has released results for the six months to December 2021. You know it’s been a tough time for a company when the first two bullets of the announcement are related to the balance sheet.

Since June 2021, Hyprop has reduced borrowings by around R1 billion. It held on to R876 million in equity via the 2021 dividend reinvestment plan, a clever way for a REIT to hang on to cash.

If you read further, you’ll see why all the focus has been on the balance sheet. The loan-to-value ratio was at a dangerously high 45.8%. It has since been reduced to 41.5%.

In case you haven’t noticed or don’t get out much, the shopping centres are busy again. I’m not surprised to see a 21% growth in like-for-like distributable income vs. the comparable period. Importantly, tenant turnover and trading density in the South African portfolio has reached pre-Covid levels.

The group is busy with a rework of the portfolio in Europe. The Delta City property in Serbia was disposed of and Hyprop is in the process of acquiring the four remaining Hystead assets for EUR193 million, subject to shareholder approval.

Assuming this goes ahead, Eastern Europe will represent around a third of Hyprop’s investment portfolio.

Net asset value (NAV) per share has decreased to R58.97, so yesterday’s closing price of R32.08 is a substantial discount of 45.6% to the NAV.

The share price fell 3% in response to this announcement and is up just 12% in the past year, so Hyprop hasn’t experienced the significant recovery that some other property counters have achieved.

Metair’s earnings now exceed 2019 levels

Metair generates 49% of its revenue from automotive batteries, 47% from automotive components and 4% from industrial and non-automotive products. 61% of the revenue is generated in South Africa, so there’s a solid offshore component – 28% in Turkey and the UK and 12% in Romania.

Metair has released results for the year ended 31 December 2021. They paint a pretty picture, with revenue up 23% and EBITDA up 80%.

The numbers get bigger and more exciting the further down you go, with HEPS up 139% for the year to 354 cents. That’s higher than the 336 cents achieved in 2019 before the virus-that-shall-not-be-named attempted to ruin our lives. It’s Friday and I’m allowing myself one Harry Potter reference for the day.

The dividend per share of 90 cents is 20% higher than last year but still well below the 120 cents per share declared in 2019. The earnings may have beaten pre-pandemic levels but the company isn’t ready to pay those levels of dividends.

A 39% drop in cash from operations is a good explanation for why the payout ratio hasn’t recovered. Working capital investments, unusual costs driven by supply chain disruptions and investments for new customer models and facelifts were to blame for the free cash flow pressure.

Importantly, group return on invested capital (ROIC) improved to 16.4%, well ahead of the target of 13.4%. Metair needs to invest shareholder cash but achieves good results when it does.

After a record performance in the energy storage business in 2021, Metair will hope that the automotive components business will have a year of fewer supply chain disruptions.

The share price rallied 5.9% in response to this result. Metair is up 55% in the past year but has gained just 11% in total over the past five years.

Resilient wants to close the discount further

With a market cap of over R23 billion, the market pays attention when Resilient releases results. To give some context to that number, Growthpoint’s market cap is just under R46 billion and shopping centre REIT Hyprop (which also released results yesterday) has a market cap of around R11.4 billion.

Resilient is a retail-focused REIT, so the pandemic did a thorough job of testing whether the fund is appropriately named. The group received R12.6 million from its insurers for pandemic cover, an amount which was not previously accrued. A claim of R13.7 million has been received for the social unrest, with R3 million still outstanding and not accrued for.

In the six months to December 2021, Resilient collected 97.1% of rentals. Covid-related discounts fell from R43.7 million in the comparable period to R21.5 million in this period.

The REIT owns 27 retail centres in South Africa and achieved a 3.7% valuation increase in the portfolio in this period. The average annualised property yield was 8.2% at December 2021.

The company has changed its year-end to December, so this “year” is only six months vs. the prior period which was a full calendar year. Comparing the movement in key metrics to the prior period is thus pointless.

Notably, Resilient’s net asset value (NAV) per share is R65.03. Yesterday’s closing price of R57.90 is a discount of just 11% to the NAV. Although this is a modest discount by many standards on the JSE, Resilient has appointed expert property sector advisors Java Capital to suggest strategies to unlock the discount.

One initiative that is already underway is to unbundle a portion of the shareholding in Lighthouse to Resilient shareholders. Regular InceConnect readers will recognise Lighthouse as a JSE-listed property fund that focuses on Europe. The recent strategic push of that fund has been into France. After the unbundling, Resilient will still hold a 30.7% stake in Lighthouse.

A dividend of 226.62 cents per share has been declared. This is a yield of 3.9% on yesterday’s price. Although it is a “final” dividend because of the change in year-end, it only represents distributable earnings achieved over six months.

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