Tuesday, March 11, 2025
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Much excitement at Orion Minerals

Orion Minerals has a market cap of around R1.2 billion and kept the SENS system rather busy on Monday. The company announced two term sheets and the availability of an investor presentation.

Prieska Project term sheets

Orion has entered into non-binding term sheets for a $87 million funding package related to the Prieska Copper-Zinc Mine. The package comprises of an $80 million precious metal stream and a AUD10 million funding arrangement for each production and underground mine dewatering. Yes, these elements are denominated in different currencies.

The counterparty is Triple Flag Precious Metals, a Canadian streaming and royalty finance company. This is an entirely different type of streaming to your Netflix account! In these structures, the deal is that Orion needs to deliver future gold and silver by-product production against the funding and will receive 10% of the spot price at the time of delivery.

Orion hopes to achieve binding agreements by the third quarter of this year. One of the conditions is that the AUD10 million funding will only be advanced if Orion secures another AUD20 million in funding for mine dewatering.

If this goes ahead, Orion will have funding to complete the Feasibility Study for early mining at Prieska and commence mine dewatering and development.

Interestingly, the potential deal also includes funding from Triple Flag of $55,000 per annum for community social funding projects over the life of the Prieska Copper-Zinc Mine.

Battery refining facility

Orion has signed a term sheet with Stratega Metals, which provides Orion with exclusivity to use Stratega’s refining technology to test concentrates from the Jacomynspan Nickel-PGE Project in the Northern Cape. The goal here is to produce “value-added metal products” which trade at a premium to the spot metal prices. These “battery precursor products” effectively take the metals a step closer to being used in batteries, by producing battery metal salts and fine carbonyl powders.

The deal gets even more interesting, as Stratega holds an exclusive licensing agreement to use TCM Research’s suite of proprietary technologies for base metal refining in the Northern Cape. Orion has the exclusive right to enter into an earn-in agreement for a 75% interest in Strategy by funding construction of a demonstration-scale refinery.

Although there’s a long way to go from a technical perspective, it’s exciting to see these types of projects in our country. The battery materials sector is growing quickly as the world looks to reduce its reliance on fossil fuels.

Investor presentation

With so much exciting news to share with the market, I’m not surprised that Orion has released a detailed investor presentation. If you find this company interesting and you would like to learn more, you’ll find it here.

Orion’s stock is fairly illiquid and has traded nearly 33% lower in the past year. After a strong rally in January, the stock has given up those gains and is flat year-to-date.

AngloGold margins under pressure

AngloGold had a very unhappy time in 2021. There were major operational issues from suspended operations at Obuasi and the company had to deal with the impact of Covid in addition to all the usual challenges that make mining a risky place to play. Obuasi is producing again under a ramp-up plan, with full production only expected by the middle of 2022.

A 52-week share price range of R213.56 to R434.78 tells you everything you need to know about the journey the share price and investors have been on.

AngloGold has extensive operations in Africa, Australia and the Americas. There are no operations in South Africa, with the last operations here sold to Harmony in 2020. In the latest quarter, the regions contributed to production as follows: Africa 56%, Australia nearly 22% and Americas just over 22%.

A number of mining houses have recently reported disappointing quarterly updates. Production is lower in many cases and the impact of inflation is hurting margins, with cash costs per unit rising faster than commodity prices in this quarter for many of the companies due to decreased production. Mines have enormous fixed costs that need to be recovered by pushing resources through the system and out the door.

In the first quarter of 2022, AngloGold Ashanti managed to achieved flat year-on-year production numbers, which looks ok relative to the broader mining sector at the moment. Quarter-on-quarter though, production fell by nearly 11%.

The price received per ounce improved by 5.2% year-on-year and 4.6% quarter-on-quarter.

Total cash costs only increased by 4% year-on-year. Inflationary pressures were partially mitigated by operating efficiencies and an 8% increase in underground grades. This wasn’t enough to maintain adjusted EBITDA margins unfortunately, with adjusted EBITDA down 2% year-on-year and adjusted EBITDA margin at 43%. This is well below adjusted EBITDA margin of 47% in Q1’21 and 46% in Q4’21.

Free cash flow has swung considerably into the green year-on-year, with an outflow of $92 million in Q1’21 and an inflow of $268 million in Q1’22. This was mainly attributable to $326 million received from Kibali gold mine in the DRC. This helped AngloGold achieved $2.5 billion in liquidity at the end of March, including $1 billion in cash. An additional $210 million was received from Kibali after the end of the quarter.

Adjusted net debt at 31 March was $917 million, reflecting an adjusted net debt to adjusted EBITDA ratio of 0.51x.

In addition to the focus on efficiency, AngloGold has also been busy with acquiring and developing resources. The $365 million acquisition of Corvus Gold was closed in January 2022, giving the company a much stronger position in Southern Nevada in the United States. This asset should be in production in around three years from now.

The company has reiterated its 2022 guidance, which means that this quarter went largely to plan. Bringing Obuasi back to full production is key to achieving the production guidance.

The highlight of this quarter is clearly the free cash flow story. Investors will be looking closely at production numbers this year, with a strong operational performance key in this difficult inflationary environment.

Ghost Bites: Vol 2 (22)

  • Capital & Counties Properties Plc (known as Capco and listed on the JSE as well as in London) has responded to press speculation by confirming that it is in merger discussions with Shaftesbury Plc. This would create a REIT focused on the West End of London with exposure to retail, hospitality, office and residential properties. Shaftesbury shareholders would own 53% of the combined company and Capco shareholders would own 47%. Capco already owns 25.2% of Shaftesbury. Importantly, no firm offer has been made at this stage.
  • AngloGold Ashanti achieved flat production year-on-year but is down vs. the previous quarter. Efficiency gains have helped mitigate some of the inflationary pressures. Although EBITDA margin has gone in the wrong direction, things are starting to look better here. I’ve written a feature article on this update that you can read here.
  • Orion Minerals has announced a potential funding package for the Prieska Copper-Zinc Mine. Separately, the company has also secured the opportunity to develop a battery metals facility in the Northern Cape. To accompany the exciting news, Orion also released an investor presentation. I’ve written a feature article covering these topics that you can read here.
  • Harmony Gold Mining has confirmed that four employees tragically lost their lives in a maintenance-related incident at the Kusasalethu Mine near Carletonville. The affected area has been closed for an investigation to be undertaken.
  • Transaction Capital (a core holding in my portfolio) has released a trading statement for the six months ended March 2022. Core HEPS from continuing operations will be between 26% and 31% higher. HEPS on an unadjusted basis will be approximately flat (between -2% and 3% vs. the comparable six month period), reflecting substantial costs and imputed interest charges related to the WeBuyCars deal. Guidance for FY22 is core HEPS growth at a rate higher than pre-pandemic, driven by a steady recovery in SA Taxi and high growth rates in WeBuyCars and Transaction Capital Risk Services.
  • MAS Real Estate shareholders should note that a detailed presentation regarding the acquisition of six retail centres in Romania from the company’s joint venture partner has now been made available. The company also plans to extend the term of the joint venture, as it provides the necessary pipeline for MAS to reach its growth objectives in Central and Eastern Europe. You can view the presentation at this link for more details.
  • Calgro M3 has released an updated trading statement that confirms a substantial turnaround in fortunes. HEPS for the year to February 2022 will be between 104.87 cents and 106.39 cents vs. a loss of 15.17 cents in the prior year. Gross profit margin was within target range and net debt to equity is better than the target of 0.75x that was set for 2024. Net cash generated from operations was R129.9 million. The share price traded more than 7% higher on the day.
  • Sanlam has confirmed that the UK business has finalised the disposal of its shareholdings in Sanlam Life and Pensions UK, Sanlam Private Investments UK and Sanlam Wealth Planning Holdings UK. The transactions were previously announced in September 2021. The deal is worth GBP153 million after costs and is aligned with Sanlam’s strategy of focusing on African and other emerging markets.

MTN’s African subsidiaries – quarterly updates

There’s been a flurry of recent results from MTN’s African subsidiaries. To help bring you up to speed, I felt it was time for a summary of the key updates.

MTN Nigeria – three months to March 2022

In Nigeria, the business has been impacted by regulatory restrictions on new SIM sales and activations. Mobile subscribers fell by nearly 2% year-on-year as a result of these headwinds. Active data users and fintech subscribers both increased.

Service revenue was 22% higher and EBITDA was 25.7% higher, with a 150bps expansion in EBITDA margin to 54.6%. Profit after tax grew by 31.3%.

With voice revenue up by 5.8% and data revenue up by 54%, it’s clear to see where the growth is coming from.

Capital expenditure (capex) increased sharply by 80.8%, reflecting frontloading of the investment required for data demand and to accelerate the rollout of the 4G network. This put pressure on free cash flows which declined by 17.4%.

The listing in Nigeria has been successful, attracting a large number of retail shareholders onto the register and putting a portion of the company in the hands of Nigerians.

In other good news, MTN Nigeria has been granted final approval for the MoMo Payment Service Bank by the Central Bank of Nigeria. This is key to the overall FinTech strategy in the group.

Although there is some uncertainty around subscriber churn due to the regulatory issues, MTN Nigeria has reiterated its guidance of medium-term service revenue growth of at least 20%.

MTN Group holds approximately 75% in MTN Nigeria.

MTN Ghana – three months to March 2022

MTN Ghana grew service revenue by a brilliant 34.5%, achieved off relatively modest subscriber growth of 8.4% in mobile subscribers and 14.4% in active data subscribers. An increase in voice revenue of 16.9% demonstrates the potential in this market even beyond the obvious growth areas like data.

EBITDA increased by 46.6%, reflecting a significant margin improvement of 490bps to 59.5%. These really are big numbers.

One of the challenges faced by the business has been the implementation of a 1.5% e-levy by government on certain electronic transactions through mobile money and other channels. To reduce the impact of the levy on customers and to remain competitive, MTN Ghana chose to reduce its fees on peer to peer transactions by 25%.

Total capex increased by over 220% as the business invests heavily in its network.

MTN is actively trying to increase local ownership in MTN Ghana, now up to 18.7% thanks to some local pension funds coming onto the register.

MTN Rwanda – three months to March 2022

MTN Group holds an 80% stake in MTN Rwanda, the market leader in that country with market share of 64.6% (up 240bps year-on-year).

The latest quarter reflects strong revenue growth (up 24.5%), driven by 5% growth in mobile subscribers, 26.3% growth in active data users and 12.1% growth in Mobile Money users. It unfortunately reflects even higher growth in expenses, up 33.7% over the same period.

This is negative JAWS (revenue growth below expense growth), so EBITDA margin contracted by 360bps to 47.7%. EBITDA still increased by 15.7% overall.

Due to amortisation of the licence renewal fee and associated finance costs, profit after tax fell by 39.6%. That’s obviously unhappy news for MTN shareholders. With capital expenditure up by 36.9% and the pressure from expense growth, free cash flows fell by 21.3%.

MTN Uganda – three months to March 2022

MTN has a 83.1% stake in MTN Uganda, a business that holds the market leadership position in that country.

Assisted by growth in the subscriber base of 8.5%, service revenue grew by 11% year-on-year in the latest quarter. The far more exciting growth lies in data revenue (up 45%) and Fintech revenue (up 20.7%).

Margins went the right way in this country, although only just. EBITDA margin increased by 40bps to 51.6%. Profit after tax increased by 20.1%.

With significantly higher capex intensity due to frontloading of investments, capex skyrocketed by 280%. The company expects intensity to normalise by the end of the financial year.

Ghost Bites: Vol 1 (22)

  • Supply chain solutions company Santova jumped nearly 13.9% on the news of an exceptional increase in earnings. In a trading statement related to the year ended February 2022, Santova guided that HEPS would skyrocket by between 166.4% and 171.4%. This is a HEPS range of between 125.40 cents and 127.75 cents. The share price closed at R6.33 on Friday.
  • Mpact closed 6.15% higher on the day. The only news related to the company was that Gayatri Paper Mills has acquired a 10.2% stake in the company. When the market sees significant buying of a company’s shares, investors tend to wonder whether future corporate actions may be on the table. As things stand, the market is aware that Caxton has strategic intentions to increase its stake in Mpact. This remains one to watch.
  • Pan African Resources has completed an underground drilling programme at Barberton Mines that included 68 underground diamond core boreholes. The company describes the outcome as being successful and significant high-grade drilling results. There’s visible gold in several drill intersections. This helps the company understand the full geological opportunity of its Barberton operations.
  • Anyone who follows Tito Mboweni on Twitter will know that although he is passionate about cooking, his culinary skills probably wouldn’t earn many Vitality points. Nonetheless, Discovery announced that Mboweni has been appointed as a non-executive director of the company.
  • Glenrock is in the process of making a mandatory offer to the other shareholders of Universal Partners Limited, a Mauritian investment holding company listed on both the Stock Exchange of Mauritius (SEM) and the JSE. The formal offer documentation has been provided by Glenrock under Mauritian law. Universal Partners will issue a reply document (which deals with the merits of the offer and the opinion by the directors to guide shareholders in making a decision) on around 24th May.
  • After meeting all conditions precedent, Arden Capital has confirmed its delisting date as 24th May.
  • The CFO of Sasol sold shares in the company worth over R4.8 million. Although there are many reasons why directors may choose to sell their shares in the market, it’s always worth taking note when the trade is large.
  • Net1 shareholders have approved a change in the company’s name to Lesaka Technologies, Inc.
  • In the very unlikely event that you are a shareholder in Russian property investment fund Raven Property Group, please note that the company has published the circular dealing with the proposed delisting of its shares.

Weekly corporate finance activity by SA exchange-listed companies

  • Labat Africa to undertake private placement of shares
    The company, which has a dual listing on the JSE and Frankfurt Stock Exchange, is to undertake a capital raise via a private placement of shares to selected European investors to secure new capital of €18 million. The placement proceeds will be used to accelerate the implementation and expansion of the Labat Healthcare projects and will also create much needed liquidity of the Labat share in the international equity markets.
  • Results of Hammerson’s scrip distribution election
    Hammerson has issued a total of 194,637,920 new company shares in terms of its scrip distribution alternative. The company’s total issued share capital now consists of 4,614,095,081 ordinary shares.
  • Reinet Investments repurchases shares
    As part of the repurchase programme announced on March 24, 2022, the company has repurchased a further 244,325 ordinary shares at an average price of R309.24 per share for a total consideration of R75,6 million (€4,5 million).
  • South32 repurchases shares
    The company this week repurchased 1,847,463 shares valued at A$28,79 million.
  • Pan African Resources repurchase shares
    The company announced the initiation of phase one of a share buyback programme to purchase up to R50 million (£2,6 million) worth of ordinary shares over one month commencing April 1, 2022. Purchases will take place on the LSE and JSE with c. R25 million purchased on each exchange. The shares bought back on the JSE will be in compliance with the MAR Buy-Back Regulation to maintain consistency between exchanges. This week the company repurchased 10,993 shares on the JSE valued at R46,720.
  • Glencore repurchases shares
    The company this week repurchased 2,092,281 shares for a total consideration of £10,15 million in terms of its existing buyback programme which is expected to end in August 2022.
  • British American Tobacco repurchases shares
    This week BAT repurchased 1,661,177 shares for a total of £55,41 million. The purchased shares will be held in treasury with the number of shares permitted to be repurchased set at 229,400,000.
  • Fairvest to list on A2X
    The company will take a secondary listing of its A ordinary shares and B ordinary shares on A2X with effect from May 11, 2022. Fairvest will retain its primary listing on the JSE.
  • This week two companies issued profit warning announcements
    The companies were: Oando plc and Altron.
  • Five companies either issued, renewed or withdrew a cautionary this week
    The following companies advised shareholders: Nutritional Holdings, Onelogix, Santam, Sanlam and Mas plc.

DealMakers is SA’s M&A publicationwww.dealmakerssouthafrica.com

Who’s doing what this week in the South African M&A space?

EXCHANGE LISTED COMPANIES

  • Sanlam’s release this week detailing the creation of a pan-African joint venture with Allianz SE, fleshes out its cautionary announcements to the market first made in December 2021. Sanlam operates in 30 countries and Allianz in 11 countries. Sanlam will hold a controlling 60% stake in the joint venture which will hold the two parties’ African operations (excluding South Africa). The joint venture has a minimum period of 10 years and Allianz can increase its stake from 40% to 49% overtime. The equity value of the joint venture is c.€2 billion (R33 billion). Sanlam’s operations in Namibia will not be included initially. Also excluded are the non-African operations in India, the Middle East and Malaysia. The transaction enables Sanlam to enhance its capabilities in existing markets and expand its footprint and market leading positions in certain key jurisdictions on the African continent. In addition to this, Sanlam subsidiary Santam will dispose to Allianz its 10% interest in SAN JV for c.R2 billion. If successful, Allianz will contribute this newly acquired 10% stake to the new joint venture with Sanlam.
  • Datatec subsidiary Analysys Mason, has acquired Northern Sky Research, a global provider of satellite and space market research and consulting services for an undisclosed sum. The acquisition places Analysys Mason in a strong position within this field to advise clients.
  • Equites Property Fund, has announced the sale by its subsidiary Equites Newlands Group, of undeveloped land at Plots 2 and 3, Equites Park in Basingstoke, UK for a purchase consideration of £48,5 million (R969 million) to Promontoria Logistics UK 6
  • Universal Partners has alerted shareholders to a firm intention offer by Glenrock Lux PE No1 and Glenrock Lux PE No2 for a cash consideration of R18.63 per share. The parties collectively hold a 34.01% stake, following the acquisition of 24,75 million shares, and are as a result making a mandatory offer to shareholders. The company has a primary listing on the SEM and a secondary listing on AltX.

UNLISTED COMPANIES

  • EXEO Capital is to acquire a majority stake in Chemical Process Technologies, the sole manufacturer of animal active pharmaceutical ingredients on the African continent. The investment by EXEO is a strategic move aligned with its Agri-Vie Fund II to invest in scalable businesses within the sub-Saharan agricultural and food value chains.
  • GoMetro, a logistics tech platform, has raised R16,3 million in a seed extension round from venture capital firms Kalon Venture Partners, Hlayisani Capital, Tritech Global and 4Decades Capital. The funds will be used to scale its innovative tech platform, product engineering and development within South Africa and into the UK and US markets.

DealMakers is SA’s M&A publication.
www.dealmakerssouthafrica.com

Who’s doing what in the African M&A space?

DealMakers AFRICA

  • Holmarcon, a Moroccan insurance and finance group, and Credit Agricole SA, a French banking institution, have signed an agreement whereby Homarcom will acquire a majority stake in Credit du Maroc. The acquisition is part of Holmarcon’s strategic vision to build an integrated financial centre with a pan-African vocation. The transaction will be executed in two stages – an initial 63.7% stake followed by a further 15% stake.
  • Eden Life, a home concierge services scheduling platform, headquartered in Lagos, has acquired Lynk, a platform connecting households and businesses with verified domestic workers, artisans, and blue-collar professionals in Nairobi. Financial details of the transaction were undisclosed.
  • Sungara Energies, a UK entity focused on sub-Saharan African upstream oil and gas, has entered into an agreement with state-owned Sonangol Pesquisa E Produção, to purchase a 10% participating interest in Block 15/06 offshore Angola. The deal is worth US$500 million including a contingent payment of up to US$50 million.
  • Hello Tractor, a Nigerian tractor-booking platform, has raised US$1 million in funding from Heifer International. The platform utilises a tracking device and software that allows farmers and tractor owners to book connected tractors using their phones. The funds will be used to provide loans for tractor purchases which can be repaid from revenues earned by leasing the tractors to local farmers.
  • African Finance Corporation, an infrastructure solutions provider, has received US$35,5 million in equity investments from the Seychelles Pension Fund, the Government of Sierra Leone and the Ghana Infrastructure Investment Fund.
  • Africa GreenCo, a renewable energy trader, has raised US$15,5 million from InfraCo Africa, the Danish Investment Fund for Developing Countries and the EU-funded Electrification Financing Initiative. The funds will be used to scale GreenCo’s innovative offering as Zambia’s first renewable energy buyer and services provider.
  • Norebase, a Nigerian-based trade technology firm, has secured US$1 million in a pre-seed funding round led by Samurai Incubate and Consonance Investments. Funds will be used to build the single digital infrastructure and technology tools to ‘power trade across the continent’ and to broaden its trademark registration technology stack.
  • Westa.solar, a Nigerian provider of solar power solutions in West Africa, has secured a US$1,58 million mezzanine loan to develop solar projects in the country. The loan which was secured from the Development Bank of Austria, will be used to accelerate the development of solar projects and to reduce energy costs and emissions of commercial and industrial customers.

DealMakers Africa is the Continent’s M&A publication.

www.dealmakersafrica.com

Thorts: Context is king when it comes to M&A trends

When a new year comes around, M&A practitioners are often asked to discuss trends in the market. Nowadays, this is always coupled with a request for a fresh view on what the pandemic has meant and will mean for deal-making. In my experience, the starting point for identifying trends is contextualisation.

So, let’s consider the context: using the DealMakers public deal flow measures, as you might expect, M&A activity improved in 2021 from 2020. Some caution is warranted in that DealMakers only reliably measures the overall market in public deals, and there are many nonpublic deals not notified to DealMakers. However, it still remains the best, although incomplete, proxy we have for the total M&A market volume in South Africa. The 2020 calendar year (411 deals) is a shockingly low base though, given the effects of the first unprecedented worldwide lockdowns and the associated economic consequences. However, consider pre-COVID: in 2019, there were 488 deals; in 2018, 525 deals; and in 2017, 548 deals. So, one overall trend is that the South African M&A market was suffering a nasty downturn before COVID even swaggered up to bully the global economy out of its lunch money. In that sense, 2021 (483 deals) even in the context of the continued pandemic, begins to feel like the start of a recovery, particularly the strong fourth quarter.

That’s one trend contextualised, but is it the whole view? Of course not.

Perspective tends to shift if the camera draws back a bit further. The 2021 year was one for the record books for M&A globally. Not just a record gain from 2020, but a record year all by itself (PWC Global M&A Industry Trends: 2022). The M&A market worldwide has been booming to new heights, despite the ongoing pandemic. In that context, as might be expected, given the general state of its economy and political stagnation, South Africa is lagging.

There is always an argument to be made that corporate activity movements in Europe and the US (and increasingly other parts of the globe) arrive in South Africa with a bit of a time lag. The thinking goes something like this: capital is deployed in those markets and as it chases returns, it pushes up asset prices until the returns are not as easy to come by; the capital then overflows into other markets, where the asset prices have not yet reached the same heights. Thus, a protracted M&A boom in bigger jurisdictions should overflow into markets like South Africa.

It should logically follow that the trends in those other markets should be broadly reflected here when the overflow reaches us. Anyone fancy a SPAC for a fintech play?

Does all of this mean that the boom times are just around the corner?

The anecdotal evidence could easily lead a glass-half-full observer to reach quite a cheerful conclusion. Some of this is, no doubt, new year hopefulness, as South Africa bobs up from under a nasty COVID wave and people start to trickle back into their eerily quiet offices a few days a week. But there does seem to be a real feeling of (admittedly, still cautious) optimism around.
Life in the pandemic has taught us some valuable lessons, if we take heed:

  • Dealmaking continues through the most challenging of circumstances, and sometimes because of the most challenging of circumstances;
  • We are more resilient than we realised;
  • and The world continues to turn.

Also, and perhaps the most important context of all: we are not great at identifying the fabled trends we keep looking for. During the scary days of the first lockdown, it was widely thought that there would be many more distressed sales than actually happened. We anticipated that transaction flow would be more depressed than it actually turned out to be. We thought that there would be more foreclosures, more emergency equity capital raises, more equity holders sitting tight to wait out the COVID storm. All those things happened, but not to the extent predicted, and often much later than we anticipated. Our predictions were affected by that most human of things: the emotions of the moment.

Of course, it is those emotions that bubble up as the next geopolitical catastrophe invades Ukraine and the front pages. Like the pandemic, the terrible human consequences deserve our attention, our outrage and our emotions, but we need to realise that our assessment of the effects of such things on M&A markets needs a bit more distance.

So perhaps the best thing to do is to temper both optimism and pessimism, acknowledge that we work in an environment noisy with news, pushed and pulled by a multiplicity of variables and, in the words of the meme, just keep calm and carry on.

Dave Pinnock is a Director in the Corporate & Commercial practice and Co-Head for the Private Equity sector at Cliffe Dekker Hofmeyr, incorporating Kietie Law (Kenya).

This article first appeared in DealMakers’ sister publication Without Prejudice

DealMakers is SA’s M&A publication.

www.dealmakerssouthafrica.com

Mondi: winning at inflation, but what is Russia worth?

In the first quarter of 2022, customer demand for Mondi’s products was strong enough to offset the impact of cost pressures, as Mondi could achieve higher average selling prices. This is music to the ears of any investor, with most companies currently seeing margins deteriorate in an environment of exceptional cost pressures.

In Corrugated Packaging, Mondi managed to pass on higher input costs. In Flexible Packaging, discussions are underway with customers regarding further price increases. Uncoated Fine Paper is enjoying favourable supply-demand dynamics and implemented price increases in 2021 and this year, with the only negative news being that the Merebank operations in South Africa were impacted by the floods (this doesn’t have a material impact on group performance). Finally, Engineered Materials achieved a “stable” performance this quarter.

The pressure on input costs came from a wide variety of sources: energy, resins, transport, wood and chemical costs. Currency movements also weren’t favourable.

A further headwind for EBITDA came from scheduled maintenance, with a EUR20 million impact this quarter and a full year estimated impact of EUR110 million.

Despite this, the EBITDA result is incredibly good with growth of 63% year-on-year and 41% vs. the previous quarter. Of the EUR574 million in EBITDA, EUR117 million was in the Russian operations. This means that 20% of group profitability was in Russia, which is why the share price is down by a similar percentage this year.

The group has decided to sell its assets in Russia based on the humanitarian impact of the invasion of Ukraine. At this stage, no deal has been lined up and there’s no guarantee that a deal will even happen. The Russian business had a net asset value at the end of December of EUR687 million. In the meantime, all capital expenditure projects in Russia have been suspended.

At the end of March, net debt to EBITDA was approximately 1x, so the balance sheet is strong. The sale of the Personal Care Components business is expected to be completed in the second half of the year. Mondi has a capital investment pipeline of around EUR1 billion which the company believes will achieve “mid-teen returns” when in operation.

The share price rallied 5% yesterday and I’m not surprised. The sell-off this year implied a total loss of the Russian operations. With the rest of the business doing incredibly well, any value achieved for the Russian business could bring share price upside from here.

This is an interesting play in my view.

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