Friday, December 27, 2024
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EOH achieves 5x EBITDA for Information Services

EOH has announced the disposal of four businesses to a single purchaser. This is part of EOH’s strategy to dispose of certain IP companies in an attempt to fix the group’s balance sheet.

The assets in question are Hoonar Tekwurks Consulting, Managed Integrity Evaluation, Xpert Decisions Systems and Zenaptix, collectively referred to by EOH as “Information Services” and so I’ll stick to that term as well.

The Information Services businesses provide credit checks, background screening and big data, analytics and technology services in South Africa. Each of the four underlying companies has a different speciality within that broader framework.

The purchaser is an entity called Bachique 842 Proprietary Limited. That sounds like a lipstick colour and doesn’t tell you much in isolation. The important additional information is that the company is a wholly-owned subsidiary of LR Africa Holdings Limited, advised by Lightrock.

Among others, Lightrock is backed by the Princely House of Liechtenstein and its portfolio includes more than 60 high-growth companies. Lightrock has 70 professionals based in 5 offices across Europe, Latin America, India and Africa. EOH notes that it sees Lightrock as the right partner for the Information Services businesses going forward and it does seem like there might be an exciting future ahead for those management teams.

The deal has been priced based on an enterprise value of R445 million. The use of enterprise value is the most common technique in these types of deals, as it allows for the assets to be valued without any distortions from debt or excess cash on the balance sheet. Adjustments are then made for the balance sheet to bridge the gap between enterprise value and what the seller actually receives.

In terms of cash to be received by EOH, the base purchase price is R417 million, adjusted for final net debt and working capital benchmarks among others. The proceeds (net of the adjustments and transaction costs) will be used by EOH to reduce debt.

As at 31 July 2021, Information Services had a net asset value of R344 million and a tangible net asset value (i.e. excluding goodwill and other intangible assets) of R135.6 million.

EBITDA for the year ended July 2021 was R138.4 million. Excluding a once-off non-cash gain, EBITDA was R88 million. This was the most likely number used in arriving at the enterprise value of R445 million, so that’s an EV/EBITDA multiple of just over 5x.

The profit after tax for the year ended July 2021 was R79.1 million. Adjusting for the non-cash item mentioned above as well as other major non-cash items results in a “cash” profit after tax of R37.9 million.

There are several conditions precedent, ranging from South African Reserve Bank approval through to consent by the lenders to EOH. Importantly, EOH shareholders also need to approve the transaction as this is a Category 1 deal under JSE Listings Requirements.

EOH needs to achieve more than 50% support from shareholders and will be releasing a circular “in due course” with all the information needed by shareholders to make a decision. It should make for very interesting reading.

Standard Bank: positive JAWS and a strong outlook

Standard Bank is the latest financial institution to release results for the year to December 2021. The trend in the sector has been one of recovery after 2020 was severely impacted by Covid.

The blue bank is no different, with a rebound in headline earnings of 57% to R25 billion. Return on equity jumped sharply from 8.9% to 13.5%, a level that supports a valuation above net asset value (NAV).

Speaking of NAV per share, that increased by 13% to R124.93 per share. Friday’s closing price of R160.33 represents a 28% premium to NAV per share.

Although revenue for the year was only up 5%, there was double-digit growth in the second half of the year. Revenue growth was ahead of cost growth, resulting in positive JAWS (the difference between the two) of 54 basis points.

Further down the income statement, credit impairment charges dropped by 52%, something to be expected after the horrors of 2020. Importantly, they are still higher than pre-pandemic levels.

It’s worth highlighting that Standard Bank Group is the third largest asset manager in Africa. The investment business grew headline earnings by 11% in 2021.

The South African banking business saw headline earnings jump by 172% and return on equity recover to 12.5%. JAWS was 198 basis points in a year of strong revenue recovery.

In other African regions (contributing 36% of group headline earnings), currency movements resulted in a muted performance in reporting currency. Headline earnings declined by 2% as reported and increased 6% in constant currency. Return on Equity at 18.2% is still very impressive.

Prospects for 2022 are encouraging from a banking perspective, with interest rate hikes expected in the markets in which Standard Bank operates. This helps drive endowment income for banks, something that has suffered during an environment of extremely low interest rates during the pandemic.

In South Africa, Standard Bank expects three more 25 basis point increases over the course of the year.

In line with other macroeconomic commentary I’ve seen (as well as common sense), the conflict in Ukraine is a risk to further rate hikes i.e. may result in fewer hikes than the market was expecting. Standard Bank luckily has limited direct exposure to Russia and Ukraine, but ICBC does have exposure to emerging markets and commodities businesses that are being impacted.

Non-interest revenue will be driven by activity-related fees (e.g. loan origination fees) that will hopefully more than offset an expected decrease in trading revenues year-on-year.

With a continued focus on costs, the bank hopes to deliver another positive JAWS result. Credit impairments are expected to normalise, with a credit loss ratio at the lower end of the through-the-cycle range of 70 to 100 basis points.

Shareholders should note that the acquisition of Liberty Holdings minorities was completed recently and Liberty delisted on 1 March. Integrating these businesses will be a priority. Between Liberty and Standard Bank, there is over R1.3 trillion in assets under management and R73 billion in gross written premium across the short-term and long-term businesses.

Headline earnings per share (HEPS) was R15.73 and the dividend per ordinary share is R8.71. This is a trailing yield of 5.4% on Friday’s closing price. The final dividend of R5.11 per share will be paid in April.

Sanlam dishes out dividends

Sanlam has released its results for the year ended December 2021. The base period covers the worst of the pandemic, so keep that in mind when assessing this result. The key takeout from this result is that operating profits have returned to pre-pandemic levels.

I’ll start with the dividend, something that Sanlam prides itself on. If you are an investor who places importance on regular dividends, then Sanlam makes a strong case for being on your shortlist. The company has been an exceptional source of dividends over the years and declared a final dividend of 334 cents per share for this financial year, up from 300 cents per share in 2020.

This is a trailing dividend yield of roughly 5%, which is substantial for a group of Sanlam’s size and resilience.

Delving into the results, we see the net result from financial services up 13% and net operational earnings up 23%. At diluted headline earnings per share (HEPS) level, the increase is 27%.

The core business has put in a solid year, with new business volumes up 14%, net fund inflows 27% higher and value of new covered business significantly higher by 44%. Importantly, new covered business margin has also increased (from 2.58% to 2.87%).

Sanlam’s equity value per share is R64.44, up from R59.20 the year before. The company is trading at a slight discount to book value. Return on group equity value per share was 13.9% in 2021.

Depressingly, Sanlam includes a note in the outlook section regarding an expectation of further waves of infection. Modest discretionary reserves will be maintained in relation to this risk.

Sanlam does not expect the new business growth rates achieved in 2021 to be repeated in 2022. The group also expects equity markets to normalise in 2022 after a major recovery year in 2021, which will also impact growth rates.

The share price jumped nearly 6% in morning trade, as the market showed its appreciation for the consistency of this financial services giant.

Caxton has bounced back strongly

Caxton and CTP Publishers and Printers is such an interesting group. The share price has returned over 40% in the past year, although the longer-term picture hasn’t been nearly as pretty. Value investors are drawn to this stock because it offers a discounted entry point into some solid assets.

Caxton operates in the publishing, advertising, packaging and printing industries. This isn’t an easy space to play in, but a leading business in the industry can be a good investment despite the numerous headwinds. Weaker businesses tend to exit these industries, leaving only the strongest to generate economic profits.

Caxton notes that it has achieved a “full recovery from the impact of the pandemic” – something that not many businesses can say yet!

In the six months to December 2021, Caxton posted revenue growth of 12.3%. Advertising spend has recovered, particularly driven by retailers advertising in the local newspapers. The packaging business was a happy beneficiary of a recovery in the alcohol and quick service restaurant markets. Overall, things are normalising from a demand perspective.

It hasn’t all been easy of course. Supply chains have been tough and there were shortages of paper and packaging board raw material across different grades. Caxton had previously decided to hold excess stock, which turned out to be critical in mitigating the impact of price increases. Stock was R340 million higher than in the prior period, which has a negative impact on working capital metrics. You win on some metrics and lose on others in this game.

The group has noted that the full impact of the pricing pressures will be felt in the second half of the year. Inflationary pressures are evident across the cost base, with staff costs up 8.7% and operating expenses up 9.2%. The staff cost growth is higher than under normal circumstances, as the base included once-off reductions as part of the pandemic mitigation. Other operating expenses have been driven by increased demand and higher energy costs, with the latter a concern for all industrial businesses.

Operating profit jumped 36% and the growth looks even better after taking depreciation and amortisation into account, up 67.7%.

Below that, we find an accounting line that has distorted the growth in net profit. In the prior period, there was a non-recurring profit on disposal of an associate of around R305 million after tax. This contributed 80.7 cents in earnings per share in the prior period out of a group total of 108.5 cents.

It’s therefore impressive that earnings per share has come in at 63.9 cents this year, reflecting growth of 130% when adjusting for that disposal.

On a headline earnings per share (HEPS) basis, earnings are up by 80.8%.

Value investors look at the net asset value (NAV) per share as an indicator of growth and the level of discount in the share price. It’s not a perfect measure by any means, but a 24.2% increase in NAV per share is impressive. It now sits at R18.37 per share, so the share price at nearly R9.50 is a substantial discount to that number.

There’s a very important comment towards the bottom of the announcement regarding Caxton’s stake in Mpact. Caxton notes that this investment will “enjoy ongoing management and board attention” as they consider “future steps towards greater control of this business” – that is highly relevant for shareholders in both Caxton and Mpact.

This is no secret, as Caxton has previously approached the Competition Commission regarding its intention to increase the current shareholding in Mpact from around 32%. If the stake goes above 35%, a mandatory offer would be triggered.

The share price traded 4% higher during the morning, as the market digested the result and liked it.

Nedbank delivered a strong recovery in 2021

Nedbank has released results for the year ended December 2021. Naturally, this was a much happier year for Nedbank than the year before.

The commodity cycle pulled our economy through a tough time, which has knock-on benefits for the big banks. There’s no escaping it – their fortunes are largely dependent on South Africa’s overall prospects. Nedbank has a particularly important property division, so that exposure would’ve felt a lot more comfortable in 2021 than in 2020.

Interestingly, demand for corporate credit picked up in the second half of the year. Companies peaked their heads out and started borrowing again, after individual borrowers kept the banks busy for the first half of the year.

Headline earnings in 2021 jumped 115% to R11.7 billion thanks to the extremely weak base year. The critical point is that headline earnings is 7% lower than 2019 levels, so we aren’t out of the woods yet. From a balance sheet perspective, the bank is stronger than pre-Covid levels on important metrics like common equity tier 1.

The improvement was driven by lower impairments, better margins and tight cost management. The investment in ETI in Africa also performed better in this period. The credit loss ratio of 83bps is within the through-the-cycle target of 60 – 100bps. Performance has also been supported by significant expense savings through improvements in technology.

Other important measures include growth in operating profit of 9%, a positive JAWS performance of 0.8% (the difference between income growth and expenses growth), an 11% increase in net asset value per share and an improvement in return on equity to 12.5%.

With an expectation of just 1.7% GDP growth in 2022, the easy part of the recovery is behind us. The bank will focus on increasing return on equity to over 15% and decreasing the cost-to-income ratio to below 54%.

For now, shareholders can hang their hats on 2021 HEPS of 2,410 cents and a full year dividend of 1,191 cents, of which 758 cents has been declared as the final dividend.

The net asset value is 20,493 cents, so the bank is now trading at a 5% premium to its book value. This is the reward given by the market when a bank generates attractive return on equity.

Transaction Capital continues to impress

Ahead of its AGM today, the company released a detailed update on its operations, including commentary on the financial performance in the first four months of the 2022 financial year.

By all accounts, the growth looks good. The group is expecting a “steady recovery” in SA Taxi and “high-growth earnings” from WeBuyCars and Transaction Capital Risk Services (TCRS). The latter two divisions bring the opportunity for international expansion.

The announcement discusses WeBuyCars first, a strong indication of where the group has been focusing its attention. Without doubt, this acquisition injected some serious octane into the share price.

The company points out the trend in South Africa of a growing number of first-time car buyers. This ties in with a general improvement in the LSM curve, as the middle class grows in our country. When you look through the noise and focus on the data, there are good news stories in South Africa.

WeBuyCars is selling almost 10,000 vehicles per month and is starting to move into smaller cities. To give an idea of the flexibility of the model, the enormous operation at the Dome has 1,400 bays and the Polokwane dealership has 175 bays. The company is also rolling out “buying pods” located in high traffic areas like shopping centres.

Approximately 30% of vehicle sales are online. Sales to consumers (rather than other dealerships) represented 16% of total online sales, which I interpret to mean 4.8% of group sales. That contribution has doubled in the past year.

Selling finance and insurance (F&I) products is key in this industry. WeBuyCars is placing significant focus on this, with 17% of all sales now including F&I. Transaction Capital knows how to run a credit business (thanks to SA Taxi), so I’m not surprised to see them offering vehicle finance as a principal i.e. on its own balance sheet.

Speaking of SA Taxi, the business has faced considerable challenges in the pandemic. People travelled less, with the negative impact on taxi utilisation hurting the operators and thus SA Taxi’s business.

With inflation in new taxi prices and major spikes in fuel costs, there are still pressures. Minibus taxi fares have increased by an average of around 9.3% per year since 2013, which provides great insight into the struggles of lower-income earnings in South Africa.

The recovery in this business is taking longer than expected, but Transaction Capital is focusing on quality renewed taxis (40% of loans originated) and other initiatives like the insurance business (SA Taxi Protect).

In TCRS, the business benefits from pressure on consumers. If there are efficient debt collection processes in place, then clients are more willing to extend credit. When done in a controlled manner, this is a critical source of grease for the wheels of the economy.

TCRS acquires portfolios of non-performing loans (NPLs) and there are more of those running around when times are tough.

I am a very happy shareholder in Transaction Capital. It is one of the very few companies that I will never sell. With substantial growth prospects, a proven track record in capital allocation and a particular knack for building clever vertically integrated businesses, I look forward to the release of interim results in May.

Disclaimer: the author holds shares in Transaction Capital

MTN: Y’ello Summer, Y’ello Dividends

The Y’ello Summer campaign was run several years ago, before MTN had to say Y’ello Regulators instead and deal with all kinds of issues in countries like Nigeria. It’s been a tough time for long-term shareholders. Those who bought recently are smiling all the way.

The yellow telecommunications giant has put in a share price performance in the past year that is far more inspiring than its new logo. I haven’t seen many people on Twitter gushing over the new corporate identity.

Like so many other sectors and businesses, the core services upon which MTN was built are now ex-growth i.e. mature. The group has to deliver growth through new offerings into the substantial customer base across Africa.

In the year ended December 2021, MTN’s service revenue only grew by 1%. The group is focusing on “digital solutions” and that is coming through in the numbers, with data revenue up 16% and fintech revenue up 17.4%.

Subscribers grew by just 2.9 million, heavily impacted by new SIM registration regulations in Nigeria. Excluding Nigeria, subscribers grew by 11 million.

Mobile Money customers increased by 22.6% in 2021 to 56.8 million. The value of transactions grew 56.8% to USD239.4 billion, which means each customer is pushing more money through the platform than in the year before.

EBITDA grew by 5.3% and EBITDA margin continued to expand, this time by 170bps to 44.5%. This helped drive an increase in HEPS of 31.8%.

Net debt in the holding company has dropped to R30.1 billion from R43.3 billion, which does wonders for expansion in the equity value. A return on equity improvement of 260bps to 19.6% does wonders for shareholder happiness.

The focus in MTN has been on deleveraging the balance sheet, with substantial progress made in that regard. In-country listings in Africa have been successful, which in my opinion de-risks the operations in countries like Nigeria where there is now much higher local ownership.

The improvements in the business are captured by the declaration of a dividend of 300 cents per share. MTN expects to pay a minimum ordinary final dividend of 330 cents per share in FY22, so there’s an expectation of 10% growth in the dividend.

The capital expenditure burden is expected to decrease over the medium-term, which will help in unlocking cash flows. Ongoing growth in fintech and other services will help drive EBITDA margin. MTN is making great progress on delivering its “Ambition 2025” strategy and the share price reflects that, having increased by a colossal 158% in the past year.

The share price is nearly back to where it was in 2015, a time before the model fell apart as MTN dealt with huge challenges in Africa and a dicey balance sheet. At this stage, the future for MTN appears to be as bright as the logo.

The big question for investors is simple: to what extent is that future already reflected in the share price?

Royal Bafokeng Platinum: record production when it counted

Royal Bafokeng Platinum (RB Plats) has released annual results for the year ended December 2021. This has been a wonderful period for the platinum group metal (PGM) players, who deserved a break after years of pain.

Market cycles are incredible things. To give an idea of how severe the swings can be, RB Plats’ return on capital employed in 2014 – 2017 ranged from -29.4% to +3.3%. In 2020 it was 17.7% and in 2021 it increased to 22.4%!

As a reminder, Impala Platinum (Implats) has made an offer for RB Plats. The latter’s independent board has recommended the Implats offer to shareholders, with the caution that there is still a chance of another offer being made. The Takeover Regulation Panel (TRP) is still investigating whether Northam Platinum (which bought out Royal Bafokeng Holdings) should also be required to make a mandatory offer.

Shareholders in RB Plats will hopefully obtain clarity on this soon.

The Implats offer is R90 cash and 0.3 Implats shares per RB Plats share, so the RB Plats share price will fluctuate based on the Implats share price and the possibility of an offer from Northam Platinum.

In 2021, RB Plats grew revenue by 22.8%. This was assisted greatly by record production: 12.1% growth in tonnes hoisted, 16% growth in tonnes milled and 11.5% growth in 4E metals in concentrate.

Cash operating costs per tonne or per ounce (as appropriate) increased by single digits, well below the revenue growth rate. This led to a 28.3% increase in EBITDA to over R8.5 billion, an EBITDA margin of 51.9% (up from 49.7% the prior year).

The percentage increase was even higher at net profit level, with headline earnings per share (HEPS) up by 71.6%.

After capital expenditure of R1.8 billion in 2021 that was almost identical to 2020’s level, there’s lots of free cash flow to go around. This drove a massive jump in the dividend of 86.1% to R10.70 per share.

Please note that the final dividend was R5.35 per share, so investors who come onto the register this month will only receive that amount and not the R10.70 per share.

All eyes are on the TRP and a final answer on whether Northam Platinum needs to make an offer.

Shoprite: priced for perfection and delivering it

Shoprite has released results for the 26 weeks to 2nd January 2022.

The company has been on a charge, positioning itself as the darling of the grocery sector. That certainly wasn’t the case just a few years ago, so I will use this opportunity to remind you of how quickly things can change in the market.

Shoprite is flying in the South African market, posting huge growth of 11.3% in the supermarkets business (which contributes 79.5% of group sales). This is despite two of the Checkers Hyper stores being closed since July’s civil unrest.

There’s a base effect in this number, as LiquorShop (7.4% of the segment) increased sales by a whopping 49.8% thanks to fewer alcohol restrictions. Checkers and Checkers Hyper contributed 40% of segmental sales and grew by 11.4%, an impressive result reflecting ongoing market share gains among higher-LSM shoppers. Shoprite and Usave (52.5% of the segment) increased sales by a respectable 7.3%, demonstrating the group’s continued relevance among lower-LSM shoppers. The group disclosed 12.1% growth for Usave specifically, so there is double-digit growth being achieved at the top and bottom of the LSM curve.

These numbers were achieved with just 2.6% selling price inflation, so the supermarkets are pushing serious volumes through the door. New stores are also being rolled out, with a net 62 stores opened during the six months, creating 1,949 new jobs.

There are 23.1 million Shoprite and Checkers Xtra Savings Reward Programme members. Just let that number (and the associated data) sink in…

Although no disclosure is given of growth in Checkers Sixty60, they do describe it as being “very successful” and my anecdotal experience of the service supports that. The group has a deal with RTT Group to establish a new company for the on-demand logistics business, cementing the underlying operations in that channel.

The group is also experimenting with new store formats, opening twelve PetShop Science and one Little Me stand-alone baby store. I’m watching that with interest, as there’s a huge profit pool in baby clothes and products (I experienced that first-hand in the past two years!)

Beyond the Supermarkets RSA segment, the story is solid in Rest of Africa (sales growth of 8.4%) and in the Other Operating Segments (up 8.9%), but the Furniture segment has had a tough time with sales down 6.5%. This was attributed to the civil unrest and a high base during which people were stuck at home and buying new furniture.

Gross margin was consistent in the group at 24.1%, with expansion in Supermarkets RSA and a minor contraction in Supermarkets non-RSA. Checkers and Checkers Hyper are higher margin businesses, so outsized growth in those formats would improve the margin mix.

At group level, continuing operations recorded revenue growth of 10%, trading profit growth of 14.5% and headline earnings per share (HEPS) growth of 25.5%. The discontinued operations are in Kenya, Uganda and Madagascar.

The dividend is up 22%, nearly matching the increase in HEPS. The interim dividend is 233 cents per share, just over 1% of yesterday’s closing price. Notably, R854 million was invested in share buybacks in the past year.

Return in invested capital increased from 11.3% to 13.3%. The debt/equity ratio decreased from 27.9% to 22.9% as the group pumped cash through the system (R6.7 billion of it in the form of cash generated from operations).

The share price is up over 9% this year and more than 60% in the past 12 months. Shoprite is trading on a lofty price/earnings multiple as the market has piled into this stock. It is priced for perfection and seems to be delivering it.

Sibanye: unions striking while the cycle is hot

Just when you thought the mining industry was finally looking attractive, the unions have gotten involved. There have been noises in the market for a while now about potential labour action at Sibanye-Stillwater, as negotiations have been underway since November 2021.

This has now been confirmed through a notice sent to the company by the Association of Mineworkers and Construction Union (AMCU) and the National Union of Mineworkers (NUM) of protected strike action from the evening of 9th March.

This will target the South African gold operations, just as the gold price is performing well in response to inflation and a flight to safety of global capital. The timing couldn’t be worse.

Sibanye’s final offer was for Category 4 – 8 employees to receive increases of 6% in year 1, 5.7% in year 2 and 5.4% in year 3. This works out to an increase in each year of R800 per month. The offer for Miners, Artisans and Officials is 5% in each of the next three years.

To understand why this is important for Sibanye, consider that the cost of labour comprises 49% of operating costs in the gold operations. You may be interested to learn that electricity contributes 20%, so pressure on the system from Eskom has a direct impact on everyone.

The company has not backed down here. There is a web page dedicated to the gold wage negotiations, in which Sibanye has run a campaign around a central message of “know the facts” – aimed at the unionised workers.

At this stage, the fact is that labour action has come to the fore and the risk of it spreading across the industry is significant in my view. Workers are under pressure from cost increases, with shocking jumps in soft commodities and energy prices due to the Ukraine invasion bringing far more troubles on the horizon.

If there isn’t a speedy resolution to that crisis, inflationary pressures on lower income groups will be immense. That isn’t good news for Sibanye or any of the other companies operating in South Africa (and elsewhere).

The gold operations in South Africa represent a relatively small part of Sibanye’s business. We will have to wait and see who blinks first.

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