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Ghost Bites (Bell Equipment | Crookes Brothers | Merafe | Spear REIT)

The Finance Ghost
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Ghost Bites (Bell Equipment | Crookes Brothers | Merafe | Spear REIT)

Bell Equipment’s earnings are dropping sharply (JSE: BEL)

This cannot be good news for the share price

Once upon a time, there was an offer of R53 per share on the table for Bell Equipment shareholders. During that period, I wasn’t shy to share my opinion that investors shouldn’t be too greedy, as it felt like the cycle was turning against Bell.

Today, it trades at R35.

I suspect that every single shareholder would take R53 and run for the hill at this point. Alas, there is no such offer on the table anymore.

The earnings are also headed firmly in the wrong direction, as evidenced by a trading statement that flags at least a 50% decline in HEPS for the six months to June 2026.

They blame a decrease in demand in certain markets, higher competition on the global stage (with an impact on pricing and thus margins), as well as the effect of tariffs in the US.

Ghost Bite: There’s a wonderful old saying in the markets: “Bulls make money. Bears make money. And the pigs? The pigs get slaughtered.” Greed is rarely rewarded by the markets. Trying to squeeze the last few bits out of that Bell offer a couple of years ago has backfired spectacularly for the shareholders who blocked the deal.

Mother Nature obliterated the macadamias business at Crookes Brothers (JSE: CKS)

Here’s a strong reminder of how tough agriculture actually is

Crookes Brothers released results for the year ended March 2026. As we already knew from trading statements, they are horrendous.

Revenue is only down by 7%, but they have swung from positive operating profit of R117 million to an operating loss of R210 million. This is before the fair value movement in biological assets, so we can’t even attribute this move to forecasts rather than reality.

Finance costs don’t go away just because the crops are having a tough time, so the movement looks even worse by the time we reach the bottom of the income statement. The loss for the year is R274 million vs. profit of R90 million in the prior year.

The headline numbers are far less severe, with a headline loss of R25.5 million vs. headline earnings of R65 million in the prior year.

When you see numbers like these, the main thing to check is the cash flow. Cash generated by operating activities was R60 million, significantly less than R101 million in the prior period. They were at least cash positive despite the earnings pressure.

Macadamias were the culprit this time around, with a 30% drop in revenue and a spectacular jump in operating losses from R35.6 million to R299 million. This was driven by a huge storm that uprooted 36% of the planted area. The situation in macadamias is so severe that Crookes Brothers has elected to cut their losses and exit this business.

For more context to this decision, they made operating profit of R147 million from sugar cane (up 2%) and R39 million from bananas (down 22%).

Unsurprisingly, there’s no dividend whatsoever for this financial year.

Ghost Bite: There’s nothing harder than primary agriculture. Nothing.

Relief for Merafe: the deal with Eskom is finalised (JSE: MRF)

Two smelters will be restarted

It’s been a long and difficult road for the ferrochrome industry (and any business that needs to operate a furnace). Energy costs have gone up tremendously, making these business models unsustainable without special tariffs from Eskom.

After much negotiation and no doubt lobbying of government as well, Merafe has gotten a tariff of 62c per kWh across the line with Eskom. It was approved by NERSA a few weeks ago and the detailed Ts & Cs have now been finalised with Eskom.

This allows Merafe to restart the Boshoek and Wonderkop smelters. The pricing framework lasts for three years, so Merafe at least has some visibility in its operations.

Ghost Bite: This is the right outcome for not just Merafe, but the broader value chain as well. This includes Afrimat (JSE: AFT), which was severely affected by the ferrochrome industry basically shutting down. Will Afrimat’s share price stop its decline after this news? I bought recently and I’m tempted to buy more, with Afrimat only slightly above its 52-week low.

Spear REIT’s financial year is off to a decent start (JSE: SEA)

They expect an acceleration over the rest of the year

Spear REIT has delivered an important operational update for the quarter ended May 2026. This represents the first quarter of the 2027 financial year.

Distributable income per share is up by 6.1%, so that represents real growth (i.e. growth in excess of inflation). Although they don’t declare a quarterly dividend, the company has indicated that a 95% payout ratio would still be in play here, so the distribution per share would be up by a similar percentage.

This puts them within their guidance of 6% – 8% growth, although not by much. Based on letting activity, they expect the growth rate to improve over the rest of the year vs. Q1. The guided range remains in place for FY27.

Spear’s performance in this quarter was driven by positive overall rental reversions, with the commercial portfolio (i.e. offices) as the unexpected winner in this regard. It really is all about location, location, location – and Spear is very good at finding those locations in the Western Cape. There’s been some pressure on vacancies, but Spear’s strategy is clearly working at the moment.

The loan-to-value (LTV) ratio is comically low at 8.3%, as Spear is waiting for several properties to transfer into the group after recent acquisitions. This LTV is certainly not representative of the balance sheet that Spear operates.

Ghost Bite: It helps that things seem to have improved in the Middle East, reducing some of those inflationary pressures on interest rates. Remember, REITs like low interest rates. If you want to understand why, you can check out this recent video from my YouTube channel:

Results of previous poll:

Nibbles:

  • Director dealings:
    • Two directors of Vodacom (JSE: VOD) sold shares worth R4.1 million. The sales were related to share awards, but the announcement doesn’t indicate the taxable vs. non-taxable portion. I therefore assume that this isn’t just for tax.
    • A non-executive director of Richemont (JSE: CFR) bought shares worth R1.1 million.
    • A director of KAP’s (JSE: KAP) subsidiary Safripol sold shares worth R607.5k. That’s not a good sign, as Safripol’s recent performance was boosted by the impact of the Middle East conflict on competing imports. If the simmering down of that conflict has put Safripol back where they were before, that’s a concern for KAP.
    • The CEO of Choppies (JSE: CHP) bought shares worth R126k.
  • Goldrush (JSE: GRSP) is under pressure from online gambling adoption in South Africa vs. the in-person options that underpin the company. Goldrush also has an online offering, but it’s not big enough to offset the brick-and-mortar operations. This is contributing to group HEPS falling by between 50.7% and 68.3% for the year ended March 2026. Detailed results should be out early this week.
  • Brikor (JSE: BIK) is moving ahead with the scheme of arrangement to repurchase all the shares held in the company by investors other than Nikkel Trading. This is priced at 17 cents per share. To give you an idea of how small this company is, the total repurchase will be just R19.7 million! It doesn’t make any sense for them to be listed at this size.
  • Clientèle (JSE: CLI) will be leaving our market this week. With the offer to shareholders having met all the required conditions (including maximum acceptances), the delisting of the company will be implemented on 30 June. Farewell to one of the most dependable dividend stocks on the JSE!
  • Here’s a fun fact about the market: the JSE (JSE: JSE) is now repurchasing shares in itself via the JSE. Remember, the JSE is listed on its own market i.e. it uses its own product! They’ve repurchased 1.28% of shares in issue since the authority was granted by shareholders at the AGM in May.
  • Wesizwe Platinum (JSE: WEZ) is planning a phased restart of operations at Bakubung Platinum Mine this week. This comes after a temporary shutdown to facilitate a Section 189 consultation process. The restart is subject to the conclusion of a memorandum of agreements with the trade unions.
  • Labat Africa (JSE: LAB) has renewed the cautionary announcement related to the potential acquisition of the remaining 24.45% in Classic International Trading. The deal is still alive, with negotiations at an advanced stage. These things take time.
  • There is literally no trade in the shares of Castleview Property Fund (JSE: CVW), with this company essentially acting as an investment holding company for a small group of property investors. They’ve mainly been building up stakes in other listed REITs, while selling off directly held properties. The net asset value per share increased by 9% in the year ended March 2026. The distribution per share jumped by 74%, but that’s obviously not an indication of maintainable growth.
  • Marshall Monteagle (JSE: MMP) is also in the limited trade bucket, although the stock does at least change hands from time to time. This investment company has a broad portfolio of South African property, international stocks and various financing and trading companies. For the year ended March 2026, HEPS increased by more than 10x! Most of this is thanks to the disposal of investments and the associated gains.
  • Telemasters (JSE: TLM) has such little liquidity in its stock that it “trades by appointment” (as the saying goes). A trading statement tells us that HEPS managed to increase by more than 700% for the year ended June 2026! This is accompanied by a dividend of 0.3 cents per share for the quarter ending June 2026.
  • With Brandon Craig taking the top job at BHP (JSE: BHG) on 1 July 2026, there are other organisational changes coming. For example, the President Americas role is being split into President North America and President South America. It’s not uncommon to see changes to leadership structures when a new CEO comes in.
  • PPC (JSE: PPC) has announced the replacement for Brenda Berlin, who is retiring as CFO with effect from 30 June 2026. Veliswa Rozani will take her place, bringing extensive experience from the motor retail industry among others. She will join PPC on 1 October 2026, with PPC chief strategy officer Paulo Marques appointed as acting CFO for three months to plug the gap.
  • Araxi (JSE: AXX) announced that The Capital Appreciation Empowerment Trust has sold 40 million shares to settle its debt, leaving it with an unencumbered holding of 35 million shares. This is technically the sign of a successful B-BBEE deal, although it does of course reduce the shareholding when shares are sold to settle debt. The trust’s beneficial interest in Araxi has declined to 2.71%. Because of accounting rules and Araxi consolidating the trust, it actually gets treated as a disposal of treasury shares.

What a running dinosaur can teach you about keeping your job

Dominique Olivier
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What a running dinosaur can teach you about keeping your job

In 1993, one man’s technological breakthrough made an entire craft obsolete overnight. The people who survived it had one thing in common. As AI threatens everything we know about our careers, it’s worth knowing what that was.

If you have a young child (or a nostalgic love of children’s films), you might already know that the fifth installment of the Toy Story franchise has hit cinemas, just in time for those long July school holidays. With an eye-watering budget of $250 million, this is officially the most expensive film that Pixar has ever made. For project partner Disney, it’s a tie for second place with their live-action Lion King, which also cost $250 million. 

The studios aren’t sad about the budgets though, as all signs point towards a box office smash in the making. The film has been out for just under a week and has already grossed $352 million globally. 

When you’re blinded by the box office success, merchandise and spin-offs, it’s easy to forget that Toy Story represents a very particular milestone in film history: the first fully computer-animated feature film. When the first one came out way back in 1995, it signalled the (mainstream) end of the hand-drawn animation era.

But Toy Story was the fallout, not the bomb itself. That came two years earlier, in 1993, in the form of a running T-Rex.

Welcome to Jurassic Park

The story begins in 1983 with a screenplay by Michael Crichton, a man who had already spent some time thinking about what happens when an expensive, technologically advanced theme park goes wrong.

His 1973 film Westworld, which he wrote and directed, was set in exactly such a park, where lifelike androids malfunctioned and started killing the guests. Crichton clearly liked the premise enough to dust it off a decade later, swap the malfunctioning robots for less-than-extinct dinosaurs, and turn it into a novel. Jurassic Park was published in 1990 and promptly became a bestseller.

That’s when it came to the attention of Steven Spielberg, who by the early 1990s knew a thing or two about the genre. Jaws (1975), Close Encounters of the Third Kind (1977), Raiders of the Lost Ark (1981) and E.T. the Extra-Terrestrial (1982) established Spielberg as a director who could make enormously successful films that were heavy on effects, but anchored in story.

A novel about a theme park full of dinosaurs was squarely in his wheelhouse.

Life before the Rex

To grasp why what happened next was such a big deal, you have to understand what passed for impressive before it.

Jurassic Park was hardly the first film to put dinosaurs on a screen. 1933’s King Kong had a giant gorilla wrestling them, achieved by combining stop-motion animation with rear projection, which is where previously shot footage is projected onto a backdrop while actors perform in front of it. 

Later dinosaur films reached for puppetry, and in some cases simply fitted live reptiles with prosthetics while hoping that the audience wouldn’t ask too many questions.

The gold standard remained stop-motion: a physical model, moved a millimetre or two, photographed, moved again, photographed again, twenty-four times for every second of film. A few seconds of a creature crossing the screen could take a week to animate. The undisputed master of this technique was Phil Tippett, who had animated the AT-AT walkers in The Empire Strikes Back and won an Oscar for the creatures in Return of the Jedi. He had spent his career making things that didn’t exist appear to breathe, and very few people on Earth could do what he did. 

So when Spielberg started building his film, the plan was both sensible and entirely analogue.

For the close-ups, he turned to Stan Winston, a special-effects and makeup legend who had built the Terminator endoskeleton for James Cameron and the Alien Queen for Aliens, and whose particular genius was full-size animatronic creatures – physical, on-set machines covered in skin and muscle that actors could actually stand next to and react to. 

Winston’s team would construct life-size dinosaurs for the close work (like the scene with the sick Triceratops that the characters get to touch). Tippett, meanwhile, would handle the wide shots using a refined version of stop-motion called go-motion, which added a little blur to suggest live-action movement. Two craftsmen at the peak of their careers, doing the things they’d always done.

What could go wrong?

The animator who was told no

Spielberg did bring in one more team, but only as hired help. Industrial Light & Magic (ILM), the effects house, was contracted to add realistic motion blur to Tippett’s go-motion footage. That was the entire brief: clean up the edges, make the puppets look a little less like puppets.

Nobody asked ILM to make a dinosaur, and at least one person was told in plain language not to.

That person was a 29-year-old hotshot animator named Steve Williams, known to everyone as “Spaz,” who had already done boundary-pushing CGI work on The Abyss and Terminator 2 and held the unfashionable belief that a computer could build a convincing dinosaur. His supervisor, Dennis Muren, had heard a rumour that Williams was tinkering and told him in no uncertain terms to knock it off. Williams, by his own cheerful account, did not listen. 

On his own time, between assignments, he started building the bones of a T-Rex inside a computer. He scanned the schematics of a T-Rex skeleton at the Royal Tyrrell Museum of Palaeontology to create his virtual skeleton, then animated a walk cycle for it. The result was a fully digital dinosaur skeleton striding across the screen with a fluidity nobody had seen before.

Williams knew he was on to something, but getting it seen by the right people would require an act of mutiny. Knowing producer Kathleen Kennedy would be touring ILM that day, Williams left the walking Rex looping on his monitor, angled so it sat right in her eyeline as she passed.

The act of rebellion paid off: Kennedy made a beeline for the screen and demanded to see more.

Instant extinction

On the day of the screening, Spielberg watched a computer-generated dinosaur do what no model on a tabletop could convincingly do, and changed the entire approach to his film on the spot. The animatronics would stay, but the go-motion plan was scrapped. 

This brings us back to Phil Tippett, who had by this point assembled a 30-person crew to prepare the go-motion sequences. He was now watching a machine do (in one test reel) the thing he had spent 30 years learning to do by hand.

Spielberg asked him what he thought. Tippett’s answer was short: “I think I’m extinct”.

It was such a perfect line that Spielberg actually wrote it into the movie. There’s a scene where Sam Neill’s paleontologist character, faced with the existence of living, breathing dinosaurs, mutters that he’s out of a job, and Jeff Goldblum replies, “Don’t you mean extinct?”

It looks like a bit of clever screenwriting, but that is a man’s actual professional obituary, lifted verbatim from the worst afternoon of his working life and handed back to him as a punchline.

Pure cinema.

Phil pivots

But Spielberg didn’t send him home. It turned out that understanding how creatures move was not a skill that lived in the puppets or computers. It lived in Tippett.

So he stayed on as a movement supervisor, coaching ILM’s young animators on how a multi-tonne animal should carry itself. His team even built the Dinosaur Input Device, a stop-motion armature wired with sensors so an animator could pose a model the old-fashioned way and feed those movements straight into the computer. The craftsman’s hands stayed, but the output changed. The man who’d declared himself extinct won his second Oscar for the film that killed his profession.

Crucially, Stan Winston didn’t go anywhere either. The finished film wasn’t a victory of CGI over practical effects so much as a marriage of the two, and the seams were hidden with exquisite care. Jurassic Park contains about 15 minutes of on-screen dinosaurs, made up of roughly 9 minutes of Winston’s animatronics and only 6 of ILM’s CGI. The technique everyone remembers as revolutionary actually carries the smaller share of screen time.

The famous T-Rex paddock attack is a breathtaking illustration of how analogue and digital worked together. The wide shots of the animal stepping over a fence or chasing a Jeep, where its full bulk and movement had to read against a real landscape, went to ILM’s digital model. But the moment the T-Rex pushes its enormous head up against the car window, snorts, and turns one eye on the children inside, that’s Winston’s animatronic – a physical, hydraulic creation the actors could genuinely flinch away from. The digital dinosaur supplied the scale and the impossible motion while the animatronic supplied the weight, the texture, and the unbearable closeness.

Spielberg cuts between them so fluidly that audiences never register the handoff, which is precisely the point. Neither technique could have carried the scene alone.

Indulge your nostalgia and challenge yourself to spotting the difference between animatronic Rex and digital Rex below:

Then/now

Jurassic Park may not have invented CGI, but it made the industry understand what it could really do. Two year later came Toy Story, a feature with no puppets and no cameras pointed at anything physical at all.

An entire craft economy – model makers, matte painters, people who knew exactly how to light a 20 centimetre miniature so it read as 50 metres tall – found itself standing where Tippett had stood, doing the same grim arithmetic.

This is a long way of arriving at a thought that you can probably already see coming. 

So many people currently find themselves in careers on the brink of massive change. The AI industry has just left the test reel playing on a monitor, angled in such a way that we can’t help but see it.

The fear response is to conclude that we’ve just become extinct – and there’s a version of the next few years where that’s exactly what happens to a great many people who were very good at doing a particular thing.

But the lesson of the running dinosaur isn’t that the craftsmen lost out entirely. It’s that the ones who survived could tell the difference between the work they did and the way they happened to do it.

Tippett’s hands turned out to matter more than his puppets.

The question worth sitting with isn’t whether the new tool can move the dinosaur; it obviously and inevitably can. It’s whether we’ve spent our careers becoming the puppet, or becoming the person who knows how things are supposed to move.

One of those goes extinct like the dinosaurs. The other gets a second Oscar.

About the author: Dominique Olivier

Dominique Olivier uses her love of storytelling and ideation to help brands solve problems.

Her first book, Lessons from Loss, has been published by Penguin Random House.

She is a weekly columnist in Ghost Mail and collaborates with The Finance Ghost on Ghost Mail Weekender, a Sunday publication designed to help you be more interesting.

You can learn more about her work at dominiqueolivier.com and she can be reached on LinkedIn here.

Ghost Bites (ASP Isotopes | CA Sales | Hyprop | Mantengu | Sappi | Sirius Real Estate)

The Finance Ghost
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Ghost Bites (ASP Isotopes | CA Sales | Hyprop | Mantengu | Sappi | Sirius Real Estate)

In this edition of Ghost Bites:

  • ASP Isotopes wants to list the helium assets separately on the Nasdaq
  • CA Sales executes another bolt-on acquisition
  • Hyprop proves that destination shopping can take the fight to eCommerce
  • Mantengu is very unhappy with its auditors
  • Sappi releases the circular for the European joint venture
  • Sirius Real Estate recycles capital in the UK

ASP Isotopes wants to list the helium assets separately on the Nasdaq (JSE: ISO)

The Virginia helium assets seem to have a bright future

ASP Isotopes recently gave the market some good news about the commercialisation of Renergen’s helium assets. There’s a much bigger update now, with the group looking to combine Renergen with ENDRA Life Sciences and then list the newly merged entity on the Nasdaq.

The name will be Noble Africa, which is the name of the subsidiary through which ASP Isotopes holds the Renergen investment. I suspect that the Renergen name will stop being used entirely once this deal is done.

ENDRA is already listed on the Nasdaq. They operate in cutting-edge imaging for early detection and monitoring of steatotic liver disease.

What does this have to do with helium, you ask?

I think they are bringing the route-to-market skills in the medical sector closer to the helium business, as they are reaching the point where the South African helium assets need to find global customers. There’s no shortage of smart people at ASP Isotopes, that much I can tell you.

Noble Africa will receive roughly $50 million in capital to make this happen, including $20 million from ASP Isotopes and a further $750k from directors of ASP Isotopes.

ASP Isotopes is expected to own 89% of the combined company. Current ENDRA shareholders would have just 3%, while the rest will go to the providers of fresh capital.

Ghost Bite: This is another great example of how important it is to hitch your trailer to the right horse. I cannot imagine how Renergen would’ve gotten this far without the ASP Isotopes deal. If anything, that structure was headed for financial failure instead!

CA Sales executes another bolt-on acquisition (JSE: CAA)

They aren’t wasting any time in their new digital strategy

They’ve been busy at CA Sales Holdings (or CA&S) recently!

After announcing a deal for 30% in The Digital Media Consultancy (TDMC), CA&S sent a message to the market that they will be stepping into the eCommerce arena. This is an important move for the business, as omnichannel retail is all the rage.

They’ve now announced a second transaction that adds to this platform strategy.

They are acquiring a 51% stake in Pantry Club, an FMCG platform business that manages bespoke online purchasing platforms and marketplaces. They have the ability to increase this stake by a further 9% in future.

Ghost Bite: The deal is too small for any financial details to be announced, but I think investors will appreciate the underlying strategic move.

Hyprop proves that destination shopping can take the fight to eCommerce (JSE: HYP)

This is a strong performance

In a pre-close update dealing with the five months to May 2026, Hyprop delivered good news to investors. They are on track to deliver growth in distributable income per share for the year ending June 2026 of between 10% and 12%. This is in line with the guidance provided in September 2025.

In the South African portfolio, the retail centres saw a 5.5% increase in tenant turnover, with trading density up by 4.4%. Footcount was up 2.1%, so they are holding their own against eCommerce adoption.

A particularly exciting metric is positive reversions of 9.8%, with vacancies at low levels and tenant demand clearly coming through.

My gut feel is that malls either need to offer genuine destination shopping experiences (like Canal Walk with its lifestyle and entertainment offerings), or they need to be on busy commuter routes. There’s a half-pregnant strategy in the middle that I don’t believe will do well in years to come. Hyprop sits on the destination shopping end of that spectrum, and they are executing well on that strategy.

In Eastern Europe, tenant turnover was up 4.4% and trading density increased 4.2%. Footcount was up 5.0%. Here’s the real winner though: the vacancy rate is 0%! Talk about demand for space.

Naturally, with demand like that, reversions were in the green (positive 3.4%).

To add to the strong underlying performance, the cost of borrowing has come down in South Africa (from 8.6% to 8.5%) and Europe (from 4.0% to 3.9%). It may not sound like much, but every bit helps.

Ghost Bite: My Hyprop position is now up 78% since I bought it a couple of years ago. I’ll take that with a smile.

Mantengu is very unhappy with its auditors (JSE: MTU)

Read the full announcement and decide for yourself

Mantengu has released results for the year ended February 2026. As you’ll soon see, the audited numbers look different to how management would tell the financial story.

I can’t recall having ever seen an announcement in which management so openly disagrees with the approach of the auditors. I’m not sure how they think this builds trust with investors, particularly after all the recent bad press around being censured by the JSE. But more on that later.

First, we deal with the audited numbers and a headline loss per share of 90 cents, which is much worse than the headline loss per share of 23 cents in FY25. The net asset value has plummeted from 178 cents to 71 cents.

The Sublime Technologies business, which was the source of their bargain purchase gain in a previous financial year, contributed R168 million of the R315 million loss. This is because the business cannot operate without a special tariff deal from Eskom, an issue that has been plaguing operators of furnaces across the country (including in the ferrochrome space where there is now some relief for that industry).

Perhaps the sellers of the business knew this when they walked away for a “bargain” price? It’s not certain how things will turn out with Eskom, but the risk was surely always there.

We then arrive at the chrome business, which contributed R115 million of the loss. According to management, the Langpan business has been the victim of sabotage. The group cannot give more details on this due to legal process. They’ve also had to put in place new offtake agreements on better commercial terms. Things will hopefully improve significantly now.

Blue Ridge lost R26 million due to ongoing monthly expenses before the asset could produce any income. They are now in negotiations to sell the asset for R50 million.

Those are the numbers according to the auditors, at least. We now reach the number of ways in which management disagrees with them, ranging from the treatment of a liability in Blue Ridge Platinum through to the audit approach to inventory balances.

I can only suggest that you read the full announcement and then arrive at your own conclusion. It’s so detailed and complicated that I’m not even going to attempt to summarise it here.

As for my opinion on this, Mantengu is either the unluckiest company in history, or there are issues there. It’s incredible that so many things can happen to just one company.

It takes a lot of consistent work to create trust in the market. Sadly, having had a front-row seat to the “evidence” they used to try and implicate me in their broader fight with the JSE, I now find it harder to put much faith in their claims.

It’s possible for auditors to get things wrong of course. It’s also common for IFRS-compliant accounting to spit out results that are far removed from commercial reality. But it’s also reasonable to think that a management team having a public disagreement with the auditors (including calling their work “derelict”) is something that probably only ends well if the management team has a sparkling reputation.

I strongly suggest that you read the announcement and form your own view.

Ghost Bite: Nothing would send a positive message to the market quite like director purchases of shares, especially with the share price down 41% year-to-date. Money talks the loudest.

Sappi releases the circular for the European joint venture (JSE: SAP)

Can scale solve the problems in this business?

Sappi has released the circular for the 50/50 joint venture for graphic paper in Europe with UPM. The deal carries total advisory fees of $32 million, so it’s a monster of a thing.

Advisors are the only people who have done well out of Sappi recently. The share price is down 60% year-to-date, a spectacular drop driven by the combination of a weak balance sheet and a horrible point in the cycle.

This graphic paper joint venture certainly won’t solve all of Sappi’s problems, but at least it creates more scale in Europe and gives that business a better chance.

The joint venture helps with capacity utilisation, as the core graphic paper industry is in structural decline thanks to global digitalisation. Put simply: printing magazines isn’t a good business to be in.

They anticipate at least €100 million in synergies per annum, a suspiciously round number if ever I’ve seen one. It will be interesting to see how close they actually get.

From UPM’s side, they are contributing the communication papers business. Essentially, this joint venture is the combination of two businesses that are facing considerable headwinds.

Will scale save the day? Only time will tell.

And of course, it just wouldn’t be a deal in Europe if one of the four key benefits provided in the circular wasn’t related to climate impact!

Ghost Bite: If you want to see what a proper M&A circular looks like, then check it out here.

Sirius Real Estate recycles capital in the UK (JSE: SRE)

This is exactly how their business model works

Sirius Real Estate has a strong reputation for active management of its portfolio. The latest activity in the UK is a perfect example, with the fund selling two non-core UK assets and acquiring three UK-based self-storage opportunities.

The sales are for a total of £5.3 million, which is a 3% premium to book value. They are stable properties that have limited upside opportunity from here, making them less suitable for Sirius’ strategy.

On the acquisition side, they are looking to develop three self-storage opportunities with total site acquisition costs of £12.6 million. The gap between the current disposals and this acquisition cost will be covered by other planned disposals of non-core assets later this year.

Two of the development assets are expected to open in 2027, with the third expected in 2028.

The expected internal rate of return (IRR) is in the double digits, well in excess of Sirius’ cost of capital (especially in hard currency).

Ghost Bite: Selling mature assets and taking on development / redevelopment / active opportunities is exactly what Sirius does. Much of their recent activity has been in defence-focused assets in Germany, but that’s certainly not all that they do.

Results of previous poll:

Nibbles:

  • Director dealings:
    • The CEO of Pan African Resources (JSE: PAN) refinanced a collar structure over 500,000 shares (R11 million at spot price). These shares are pledged as security for a loan of R11.86 million. The put option strike price is R23.72 and the call option is priced at R33.61 per share. The spot price is R21.91. The loan redemption date is 30 November 2027.
    • Two founding directors of Brimstone (JSE: BRT | JSE: BRN) bought shares worth a total of R9.3 million.
    • The CEO of Lewis (JSE: LEW) sold shares worth R4.7 million. They describe this as part of rebalancing his portfolio, but a sale is a sale regardless of the reason.
    • A prescribed officer has bought shares in Exxaro (JSE: EXX) worth R992k.
    • A director of Mr Price (JSE: MRP) bought shares worth around R700k.
  • Tharisa (JSE: THA) announced that Nedbank has provided a revolving facility of R750 million to support the company’s transition to underground mining. There’s an accordion that allows Tharisa to take it up to R1.25 billion on the same Ts & Cs as the initial R750 million. This specific facility is for the underground fleet, so this is actually an asset finance deal – just a much bigger one than you might have for your car! Tharisa has also raised significant debt raised from other banks and funding providers for the broader underground strategy. They are using this favourable point in the PGM cycle to invest for its future.
  • Sebata Holdings (JSE: SEB) released a trading statement for the six months to September 2025. Yes, they are still behind on their financial reporting! HEPS is expected to be between 3.24 cents and 3.27 cents, a significant swing from the loss of 0.13 cents in the prior period.
  • In case you’re following WBHO (JSE: WBO) closely, shareholders have approved the resolutions for the B-BBEE transaction with Akani.

Who’s doing what this week in the South African M&A space?

Marylou Greig
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Who’s doing what this week in the South African M&A space?

Listed Companies

Schroder European Real Estate Investment Trust will seek shareholder approval to undertake a managed wind-down of the company and a return of capital to shareholders. The decision is based on the low liquidity of its shares and the fact that the shares trade at a persistent 40% discount relative to its Net Asset Value. If approved, the realisation of assets will be a phased process over the next two to three years. The assets are located across high-growth hubs in the Netherlands, France and Germany.

ASP Isotopes (ASPI) announced a proposed merger of its wholly-owned subsidiary, Noble Africa with a subsidiary of ENDRA Life Sciences. The transaction is structured to spin off Noble Africa into a standalone, Nasdaq-listed helium business. Concurrent with the transaction, a private placement of Noble Africa shares will raise US$50 million with ASPI leading the funding with a $20 million contribution of placement capital. ASPI will hold c.89% of the merged entity, ENDRA shareholders 3% and private placement investors c.7%.

Sirius Real Estate has disposed of two sub-scale multi-use business parks in the Sheffield area of the UK for a combined consideration of £5,3 million, representing a 3% premium to book value. In addition, the company will acquire and develop three digitally automated self-storage opportunities located in Greater London for a total of £12,6 million.

Absa Group is targeting an additional 16.5% stake (895,989,600 shares) in Absa Bank Kenya in a R3,9 billion tender to increase its shareholding in the East African unit to 85%. Absa will offer KES34.50 (R4.39) for each ordinary share tendered, reflecting a premium of 20% to 30-day VWAP of 17 June 2026. If the tender is accepted in full, Absa will hold an 85% stake and intends to maintain the units listing on the Nairobi Securities Exchange. The tender offer will open on 30 June and close on 1 August 2026.

Heriot REIT is to acquire a 75% stake in Katleho Property Investments – the owner of a portfolio of three Gauteng office properties at an aggregated discounted price of R128,9 million. The purchase consideration will be settled by the issue of 5,605,050 Heriot REIT shares. The consideration shares will be issued at R23.00 per share to Heriot Investments (the company’s c.89.07% shareholder) and Gabenjosh Investments for a 67.5% stake and 7.5% stake respectively.

Primary Health Properties responded to speculation in the market on the potential formation of a joint venture in connection with PHP’s private hospital portfolio by confirming it was in advanced discussions.

Unlisted Companies

Institutional fund manager A. P. Moller Capital has, via its Emerging Markets Infrastructure Fund II, announced it is to acquire Mainstream Renewable Power South Africa, a large renewable energy developer and independent power produce in South Africa. The business currently comprises 148 MW of operating and in-construction assets, 351 MW of construction-ready projects and a development pipeline of c. 11.6 GW spanning solar, wind and battery storage opportunities. Financial details were not disclosed.

DealMakers is SA’s quarterly M&A publication.
www.dealmakerssouthafrica.com

Weekly corporate finance activity by SA exchange-listed companies

Marylou Greig
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Weekly corporate finance activity by SA exchange-listed companies

Following a proposed refinancing of subsidiary Westcon International – by way of a partial refinancing of an existing US$450 million shareholder loan – and the sale of a 5% stake in the subsidiary for $25 million to General Atlantic’s equity funds, Datatec has announced its intention to pay shareholders a special dividend of c.$75 million (R7,1 billion).

Novus has acquired an additional 2,490 Mustek shares at R15.00 per share on the open market (outside of the Mandatory Offer) for R37,350. The company now holds 29,02 million Mustek shares constituting 50.44% of the issued shares in Mustek. Together with concert parties this shareholding increases to c.70.73%.

As of 26 June 2026, Africa Bitcoin’s secondary listing on the Developmental Capital Board of the Namibian Securities Exchange (NSX) has transferred to the Main Board of the NSX.

This week the following companies announced the repurchase of shares:

To reduce the share capital of the company and return capital to shareholders, Quilter commenced, in March 2026, a £100 million share buyback programme. Repurchases to date total £40 million of which £32 million were conducted on the LSE and £8 million were conducted on the JSE. The maximum aggregate purchase price payable by the Company under Tranche 2 is up to C.£30 million.

In 2026, Greencoat Renewables implemented a share buyback programme totalling €100 million over 12 months with a first tranche amounting to €25 million beginning on 5 March 2026 – representing 13% of the issued share capital. This week the company announced its intention to commence a second tranche which will return a further €25m of capital to shareholders, following the completion of the first tranche which is expected during July. The second tranche repurchase will be complete by end-December 2026. This week 1,113,295 shares were repurchased for and aggregate €837,197.

Bytes Technology announced in May 2026 its intention to implement a new share repurchase programme to purchase the company’s shares for an aggregate value of up to £25,0 million. This week the company repurchased 525,000 shares at an average price per share of £3.54 for an aggregate £1,86 million.

In December 2025, British American Tobacco extended its share buyback programme by a further £1.3 billion for 2026. The shares will be cancelled. Over the period 15 – 18 June 2026, the company repurchased a further 494,286 shares at an average price of £45.32 per share for an aggregate £22,4 million.

Ninety One plc announced an increase in the repurchase programme from £30 million to £55 million to be completed by 21 July 2026. The shares to be purchased on the open market will be cancelled to reduce the Company’s ordinary share capital. This week the company repurchased a further 827,059 ordinary shares at an average price 218 pence for an aggregate £2,02 million.

Anheuser-Busch InBev’s US$6 billion share buy-back programme continues. The shares acquired will be kept as treasury shares to fulfil future share delivery commitments under the group’s stock ownership plans. During the period 15 to 19 June 2026, the group repurchased 525,297 shares for €37,23 million.

During the period 15 – 19 June 2026, Prosus repurchased a further 2,291,242 Prosus shares for an aggregate €89,8 million and Naspers, a further 790,310 Naspers shares for a total consideration of R669,49 million.

Two companies issued a profit warning this week: Mantengu and Crookes Brothers.

One company issued or withdrew a cautionary notice: Sebata.

DealMakers is SA’s M&A publication.
www.dealmakerssouthafrica.com

Who’s doing what in the African M&A and debt financing space?

Vanessa Aitken
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Who’s doing what in the African M&A and debt financing space?

DealMakers AFRICA

WeLight announced that the International Finance Corporation (IFC), has invested €27 million in the provider of rural electrification through mini-grids in sub-Saharan Africa. WeLight was founded in 2018 by AXIAN, Sagemcom and Norfund. The funding will enable the company to accelerate its geographic expansion with the launch of operations in Nigeria and the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), while strengthening its operations in Madagascar and Mali.

Spiro, the electric vehicle (EV) and clean energy infrastructure platform, announced the successful closing of its latest funding round at US$270 million. This comes from a newly finalised $55 million investment from NewTrails Capital. On the back of support from long-standing institutional partners such as FEDA, Spiro’s latest equity round also drew global capital from Europe and Africa, Impact Fund Denmark, Equitane and FEDA, on top of the recent backing from Nithio and the Africa Go Green Fund.

‍A Tunisian agritech firm, RoboCare, has secured a six-figure investment from venture capital firm 216 Capital to support its next growth phase and expand across Africa and the Middle East. RoboCare develops an agricultural management platform that helps farmers make better decisions through the intelligent use of multiple data sources: satellite imagery, drone data, IoT sensors, weather data, and field expertise. Through its AI models, the solution enables early detection of crop diseases and stress, optimises resource usage, and improves farm performance.

Agenz, a Moroccan proptech, has announced a US$5 million oversubscribed seed round led by BREEGA, Attijariwafa Ventures, and Saviu Ventures. The new funding will be used to accelerate its expansion beyond property data and transaction services and into the financial infrastructure layer of real estate.

The European Investment Bank’s international development arm, EIB Global, and Wema Bank, Nigeria’s oldest indigenous national bank, has announced a strategic partnership agreement with the signing of a €50 million SME-focused credit line for youth and women-focused businesses in Nigeria.

DealMakers AFRICA is the continent’s quarterly M&A publication
www.dealmakersafrica.com

Disclosure obligations in the context of cross-border directorships

Andrew Westwood and Saleem Firfirey
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Disclosure obligations in the context of cross-border directorships

When is disclosure required?

Section 75 of the Companies Act (the Act) provides that if a director has a personal financial interest (PFI), or knows that a related person has a PFI in a matter to be considered at a board meeting, that director must disclose that interest and must subsequently recuse themselves from consideration of the relevant matter. Failure to do so may render a decision, agreement or transaction invalid.

A PFI in respect of a person, as defined in s1 of the Act, means “a direct material interest of that person of a financial, monetary or economic nature, or to which a monetary value may be attributed”.

S75 of the Act extends the definition of “related person” in s1 of the Act to include “a second company of which the director or a related person is also a director”. Accordingly, a director does not need to control the relevant second company. It is sufficient that the director (or a related person) serves on that company’s board for it to be regarded as a related person for purposes of s75 of the Act. While the existence of a cross-directorship is generally straightforward to identify and disclose, the question arises whether this extends to foreign directorships. This question is of particular importance in the context of cross-border transactions, which dealmakers encounter regularly.

Foreign directorships

S1 of the Act limits the definition of “company” to juristic persons incorporated under the Act. On a strict interpretation, s75(1)(b) would therefore not apply to cross-directorships between a South African company and a foreign company. This gives rise to a potentially anomalous position, where disclosure of a PFI may be required where a cross-directorship relates to two South African companies, but not where the same decision, agreement or transaction involves a South African company and a foreign company.

Although there is no express statutory requirement to disclose a cross-directorship involving a foreign company, disclosure may nonetheless be required under common law, depending on the circumstances. These common law obligations should be carefully considered where directors sit on boards across multiple jurisdictions, and should also be kept in mind when multi-national companies consider the composition of their boards.

Relationship between the common law and the Act

Among other provisions, directors’ duties are partially codified in s75 of the Act. However, the common law continues to apply unless it is expressly excluded or in conflict with the Act.1

S75 deals with a director’s duty not to have a PFI in existing or proposed contracts with the company on whose board they serve, or in any matter in which the company has a material interest, and to disclose that interest and recuse themselves from voting on a matter where such PFI arises. Although not expressly codified as such, this captures (among other principles) the “secret profit rule” under the common law. This rule requires that directors must not make secret profits from their position, and must account to the company for any such profits. Specifically, a director should not obtain any financial benefit other than in terms of a contract with the company following full disclosure, or by virtue of their office (for example, remuneration). Such financial benefit will constitute a “secret profit” if the interests of the director and the company are in conflict.

Under common law, a director is required to disclose a financial benefit and recuse themselves from decision-making where a conflict exists. A failure to do so does not automatically invalidate an agreement. Instead, the agreement is voidable at the election of the company, and the director may be required to account for any profit made. While this differs from s75, where an agreement is automatically void but can be ratified, the practical consequences of the non-disclosure and failure to recuse are broadly similar.

In multi-jurisdictional groups, it is important not to overlook potential disclosure obligations arising under common law, notwithstanding the restricted definition of “company” in the Act. The mere existence of a cross-directorship with a foreign company does not, in and of itself, trigger a disclosure obligation. However, disclosure becomes necessary where a matter arises in which the foreign company has a financial interest, or where a director’s fiduciary duties place them in a position of conflict. Whether disclosure is required must therefore be assessed on a case-by-case basis, with reference to the specific transaction, contract or decision under consideration. The consequences of failing to do so are far-reaching – not only for directors themselves, who may face potential liability, but also for matters considered by the board of a company, where transactions or agreements may be voidable.

1 Dimension Data Facilities (Pty) Ltd and Others v Identity Property Co (Pty) Ltd and Others (2022/040174) [2024] ZAGPJHC 1209 (25 November 2024)
2 Ibid.

Andrew Westwood is a Partner and Saleem Firfirey a Senior Associate | Webber Wentzel

This article first appeared in DealMakers, SA’s quarterly M&A publication.

DealMakers is SA’s M&A publication.
www.dealmakerssouthafrica.com

The rise of the African secondaries market

Angela Simpson and Lungelo Magubane
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The rise of the African secondaries market

Africa’s private capital market has reached a defining moment. 81 exits were recorded in 2025, representing a 27% year-on-year increase and the second highest annual total on record. Yet even as exit activity strengthens, exit conditions continue to top investor concerns, as cited by 73% of LPs and 62% of GPs polled by the African Private Capital Association (AVCA) for its 2026 Investor Sentiment & Outlook report. The gap between the appetite for liquidity and the availability of traditional exit routes has become a structural feature of the African private capital ecosystem.

Against this backdrop, secondary transactions have moved decisively from the periphery to the centre of liquidity strategies. Fund managers leaned more actively on sponsor-to-sponsor solutions to unlock liquidity, which represented 26% of all exits – another record milestone. In keeping with global trends, the African market is showing growing openness to mechanisms that can provide flexibility when traditional exit routes are constrained. For legal counsel advising on African private capital transactions, the deals are certainly there for the taking. The question is whether the legal architecture is ready to support them.

Valuation

Valuation can be the most contested element of any secondary transaction, and the challenge is particularly acute in Africa. Valuation misalignments were cited as a key market concern by 34% of LPs and 37% of GPs who responded to AVCA’s survey. The absence of deep, liquid comparable transaction data across most African markets means that net asset value is inherently more subjective than in markets where benchmark transactions are plentiful.

As much as standard international valuation frameworks provide a useful starting point, they have real limitations in illiquid frontier market conditions. Currency volatility compounds the difficulty for pan-African funds holding assets denominated across multiple local currencies. The legal consequences of these valuation challenges are significant and underexplored in African legal practice. If an exiting LP is cashed out at a net asset value that is subsequently shown to have been materially incorrect – whether through a GP-commissioned valuation that was overstated or an independent process that failed to account for local market realities – questions of liability, remedy and recourse arise that most existing African fund agreements do not answer.

Questions

Who appoints and instructs the independent valuer, on what terms, and subject to what conflict of interest restrictions? What dispute resolution mechanism applies where an LP challenges the valuation underpinning a secondary transaction? What information rights do LPs hold during the secondary process, given the inherent asymmetry between a GP who knows the portfolio intimately and an LP deciding whether to roll or exit? These are not theoretical questions; they will be live issues in every GP-led secondary that African fund managers pursue as the secondary market matures.

Secondary market

The secondary private equity market, previously limited, is evolving and growing rapidly to allow investors to trade existing fund interests and unlock liquidity. Among GPs who have either offered or considered these tools, GP-led secondaries accounted for 76% and LP-led secondaries accounted for 62%, dominating preferences. This trend tracks with the global statistics on this issue. According to Jeffries Private Capital Advisory, the global secondary market reached US$240 billion in transaction volume in 2025, representing a 48% year-on-year increase.

Themes

Several themes are poised to shape the next phase of market evolution in Africa, including the institutionalisation of secondary markets and the expanding use of structured liquidity solutions. What is less frequently discussed is the documentary foundation required to support this evolution responsibly.

Many existing African fund agreements were drafted at a time when secondary transactions were uncommon in the local market. They reflect the priorities of their era: capital commitment mechanics, investment restrictions and distribution waterfalls, rather than the governance infrastructure needed for a GP-led secondary or continuation vehicle transaction. This is not a criticism of how those documents were prepared; it is just a consequence of market timing. The secondary market has simply evolved faster than the fund agreements designed to govern it.

Guidance

In North America and Europe, this challenge was addressed through the development of industry-wide guidance. The Institutional Limited Partners Association has published principles and model provisions specifically addressing GP-led secondary transactions, continuation vehicle consent mechanics, LP information rights during secondary processes, and the governance standards expected of LPs’ advisory committees when approving conflicted transactions. These standards now form the baseline against which market participants and, increasingly, regulators evaluate whether a secondary process has been conducted fairly.

Evergreen vehicles – valued for their semi-liquid characteristics and long-term capital alignment – are used or planned by 61% of LPs, yet only a third of GPs report offering them a gap that itself reflects, in part, the absence of settled market practice and documentation templates to support these structures in the African context.

The development of Africa-specific secondary market guidelines could similarly be beneficial. Such guidelines would serve a dual purpose: providing GPs with a clear governance framework for conducting secondary transactions and giving LPs confidence that their interests will be protected when continuation vehicles or secondary transfers are proposed. Fund counsel, for their part, have both the opportunity and the obligation to advise GP clients on building secondary optionality into fund documentation at the outset, and not as a retrofit when the fund is already past its investment period.

Final note

The African secondary market is no longer nascent, and the transactional momentum is building. Trade sales and secondary exits are expected to remain the dominant exit routes, with a wider universe of buyers and, particularly, increased involvement from strategic acquirers and financial buyers across Africa. What is needed to meet this trend is a legal and governance framework equal to it, one that manages conflicts of interests with rigour, resolves valuation disputes with transparency, and equips African fund agreements to support the full lifecycle of a modern private capital fund. We can expect this to be an area of increased private capital activity in 2026 as the market matures.

Angela Simpson is a Partner and Lungelo Magubane a Senior Associate | Bowmans

This article first appeared in Catalyst, DealMakers’ quarterly private equity publication.

DealMakers is SA’s M&A publication.
www.dealmakerssouthafrica.com

New Investec structured product helps investors maintain tech exposure with downside protection

Investec Structured Products
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New Investec structured product helps investors maintain tech exposure with downside protection

Advances in AI and strong earnings from the tech firms have driven the Nasdaq to new highs recently. But with concerns about high valuations, investors are looking for ways to participate in the sector while protecting their downside.

The Nasdaq 100’s tech-led rally has gathered remarkable momentum, with the index rising from roughly 25,000 in early 2026 to multiple record highs, crossing the 29,000 mark for the first time in May. The longer-term picture is equally striking: the index is up 124% over the past five years.

The primary driver of this performance has been the artificial intelligence (AI) supercycle driven by the major hyperscalers, combined with robust earnings from megacap technology stocks, particularly the “Magnificent Seven” – Apple, Microsoft Corp., NVIDIA Corp., Google parent Alphabet Inc., Amazon.com Inc., Meta Platforms Inc. and Tesla Inc.

Strong fundamentals

The potential for continued growth remains strong, as prevailing tech sector fundamentals suggest that today’s market structure differs meaningfully from previous periods of excessive market optimism, with the sustained rally fundamentally supported by real and compounding profitability.

Furthermore, the major hyperscalers continue to generate massive free cash flow, which is the primary funding source for the massive capex budgets driving the AI and data infrastructure build out.

The financial resilience shown in the corporate revenue of the Nasdaq’s main constituent tech companies, despite macroeconomic headwinds, coupled with massive quarterly earnings beats, suggest the rally has more room to run.

Investing in the trend

Offering a viable solution to gain exposure to this investment theme, Investec has launched a structured term product that references the Nasdaq 100 and is linked to the index’s performance.

The Investec ZAR Nasdaq 100 Geared Growth Flexible Investment Note is a three-year and eight-month structured investment that provides investors with exposure to the tech sector, allowing them to participate in any continued AI-led growth while offering capital protection benefits.

“The product creates a structured payoff profile, providing exposure to the growth of the index, multiplied by a participation of 125%, up to a growth cap of 60% over the term,” explains Brian McMillan from the Investec Structured Products team.

This geared effect translates to a maximum return of 75% (125% x 60%) in South African rand (ZAR) over the term, equivalent to a maximum annualised return of 16.5% per annum.

Addressing investor concerns

However, should the outlook change, McMillan says the capital protection feature in the structured product addresses concerns investors may have about the length and durability of AI-driven growth in the tech sector.

“If the index does not perform over the period, investors get 100% capital protection if the investment is held for the full term, provided the index does not decrease by more than 40% on the final valuation date,” elaborates McMillan.

This downside protection on outright exposure offers a significant advantage over direct investments in the market through exchange-traded funds.

As such, with its focus on capital preservation and growth potential, the Investec ZAR Nasdaq 100 Geared Growth Flexible Investment Note may provide a suitable investment proposition for local investors looking to remain invested in tech sector growth stocks, while boosting offshore exposure without drawing on their annual single discretionary allowance (SDA).

Looking for more details? Listen to this podcast:

Full transcript for this podcast available here

Participating in the Investec ZAR Nasdaq 100 Geared Growth Flexible Investment Note requires a minimum investment of R100,000. Applications close on 10 July 2026, and the note will list on the JSE on 16 July 2026. The final valuation date is 7 March 2029.

For full regulatory disclosures, please click here

Ghost Bites (Anglo American | Growthpoint | Nedbank | Optasia | Primary Health Properties | Schroder European Real Estate)

The Finance Ghost
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Ghost Bites (Anglo American | Growthpoint | Nedbank | Optasia | Primary Health Properties | Schroder European Real Estate)

In this edition of Ghost Bites:

  • Anglo American unlocks a copper adjacency at Los Bronces
  • Growthpoint wants quality, not quantity
  • Nedbank’s performance looks decent
  • Optasia has resumed operations in Nigeria
  • Primary Health Properties is in negotiations around a private hospital joint venture
  • Schroder European Real Estate is throwing in the towel

Anglo American unlocks a copper adjacency at Los Bronces (JSE: AGL)

Copper is still the commodity that everyone is chasing

Anglo American has announced a joint mine plan with Codelco for the Los Bronces mine in Chile.

The adjacent Andina copper mine creates an opportunity for the two companies to work together, unlocking synergies and making more money for everyone along the way.

According to Anglo, this unlocks at least $5 billion in shared additional value, based on the uplift in production over the next 21 years.

Naturally, this number can technically be whatever anyone wants it to be – it all comes down to the underlying assumptions.

Ghost Bite: The actual value uplift is debatable, but the direction of travel is not – this seems like a sensible approach by the companies. It does remain subject to permits though, so something could still go wrong in the implementation process.

Growthpoint wants quality, not quantity (JSE: GRT)

But the numbers are still enormous at this R60bn market cap fund

Growthpoint has given investors an update on progress made over the nine months to 31 March 2026. It’s a very detailed look at the operations, so buckle up.

The iconic REIT is busy simplifying its portfolio and transitioning from quantity to quality, an important and necessary step in a difficult economy. South Africa has rewarded surgical strategies, not broad exposure. This is driving Growthpoint’s precinct-focused strategy, perhaps learning from the success of REITs who have been more focused.

We are talking serious numbers here, with previously targeted disposals of R3.5 billion for the year ending June 2026. B-grade and C-grade offices are on the chopping block, along with certain other assets. They’ve already sold and transferred R2 billion of assets at a modest profit to book value. Thanks to strong disposal activity, including the 55% interest in the Discovery building for R2.3 billion, they expect disposals of R5.1 billion for FY26 – way ahead of target.

Capital is being recycled into other, more desirable asset classes. This includes the Logistics & Industrial sector. Where it makes sense to do so, Growthpoint redevelops underperforming assets as well, with targeted investment of R1.3 billion in the year ending June 2026. Thus far, they’ve spent R793 million this year (including other capital expenditure).

It sounds like Growthpoint would be happy to pull the trigger on South African deals, as their balance sheet is almost too conservative now. It’s important for REITs to operate in an optimal window when it comes to leverage, especially when the weighted average cost of debt has come down (despite the recent SARB decision). Growthpoint has no problem tapping debt markets, evidenced by an oversubscribed R1.8 billion bond issuance in June 2026 at record-low margins.

One of the exciting projects in years to come is the Cape Winelands Airport, where Growthpoint will oversee Phase 1 of the development and will focus on the ancillary land opportunities thereafter.

The overall South African portfolio has seen vacancies improve from 8.2% to 7.3%. The lease renewal success rate is the highest in more than a decade, while negative reversions have improved from -4.0% to -2.8%. The office sector has been a notable source of improvement (from -9.6% to -7.1%), but I’m sure that is mostly thanks to the disposals of low-quality offices.

To give you an idea of the regional differences, Growthpoint’s office portfolio recorded vacancies of just 3.0% in the Western Cape vs. a massive 18.9% in Gauteng. KwaZulu-Natal sits at just 1.3%. Sure, the extent of the underlying portfolios will make a difference here, but Sandton is nowhere near the crown jewel that it once was.

Importantly, footfall in the retail portfolio increased by 1.2%. Malls are holding their own against eCommerce, at least for the time being. Trading density growth of 3.2% is decent, especially as it accelerated to 4.2% in the March 2026 quarter. Value-oriented formats continue to outperform, so take that into account as you consider your retail exposure.

The V&A Waterfront is the single most important asset in the portfolio, but EBIT was only up marginally year-on-year due to the redevelopment of the Table Bay Hotel. Footfall was up 1.2% and retail sales grew by 5.1%. There’s a significant development pipeline at the property, including more hotels and apartments. Residential sales will contribute to the expected double-digit growth in distributions for FY26.

On the international front, where Growthpoint has exposure to tricky markets like Australia, there’s a lot of talk around initiatives to unlock shareholder value. For now, Growthpoint Australia has reaffirmed guidance for funds from operations this year, despite the general challenges of that market.

I suspect that just about every option is on the table for the global assets. It will all come down to price and the opportunities that present themselves. One area where we know there will be action is Lango Real Estate, which is contractually required to list on a suitable exchange. The London Stock Exchange is the intended destination.

Overall, guidance for the year of distributable income per share growth of 3% – 5% is unchanged. The dividend per share growth expectation of 6.0% – 8.0% is also still in play. But Growthpoint has noted an overall shift towards a more conservative outlook beyond this period.

In leadership news, Norbert Sasse will step down as group CEO on 1 July 2026. Estienne de Klerk will step into the group role.

Ghost Bite: Growthpoint is up 31% in the past year, or 42% on a total return basis. This is one of the many reasons why I prefer putting my own money in REITs vs. a buy-to-let headache.

Nedbank’s performance looks decent (JSE: NED)

Especially in the context of the modest valuation multiple

Nedbank has added its name to the list of banks that have released pre-close updates. For the first five months of the year, headline earnings have been in line with management expectations. This has led to the group affirming its 2026 guidance.

Pre-provisioning operating profit has grown by high-single digits, which is encouraging. This was partially offset by higher impairments and the loss of associate income from Ecobank after they sold that investment. Thanks to share buybacks and other positive factors, it all filters down into growth in headline earnings of “upper single digits” – a reasonable outcome.

The core banking operation is making progress, with net interest income (NII) growth of low- to mid-single digits. Asset growth was in the mid- to upper-single digit range, but a decline in net interest margin took the shine off that number.

Where Nedbank seems to be deviating from peers is in the credit loss ratio, which is sitting in the upper half of the through-the-cycle range. This is worse than what we’ve seen in other recent sector updates. There was a major client default in Business and Commercial Banking that has affected the number, although it’s odd that there can be a client in the mid-market segment of sufficient size to have this effect.

Non-interest revenue managed upper-single digit growth, with insurance income as one of the major boosts.

Expense growth was below mid-single digits. They expect this level of control control to continue for the rest of FY26.

On the corporate front, the NCBA deal in Kenya has received a number a critical regulatory approvals. There are still some boxes to be ticked. Importantly, the offer to NCBA shareholders will close on 10 July, with the results expected to be announced by no later than 21 July.

Ghost Bite: On a P/E of just 7.6x, Nedbank achieving “upper-single digit” growth in headline earnings would put them on a PEG ratio of roughly 1x. Shareholders tend to make money when the valuation is that appealing.

Optasia has resumed operations in Nigeria (JSE: OPA)

But the damage to the investment case has been done

Having listed towards the end of 2025, Optasia promised the market a growth story built around distribution of financial and value-added services in Africa via smartphones.

It all sounded very impressive, with the share price doing well until the end of January. Then the story started to unravel, with considerable insider selling and of course the conflict in Iran as well.

But the real disaster was to come: a suspension of operations in Nigeria for regulatory reasons, along with damaging commentary from telcos about how little of an impact the loss of Optasia’s services was having on their business.

If your operations can shut down for a period of time without anyone really noticing, you have no moat. Without a moat, there’s no justification for a premium valuation.

The good news is that operations have resumed in Nigeria. The damage has been done though, with the share price having shed 31% of its value year-to-date.

Ghost Bite: IPOs are always very risky things to invest in. Even by those standards, this one fell apart incredibly quickly. They have much work to do to rebuild trust in the market.

Primary Health Properties is in negotiations around a private hospital joint venture (JSE: PHP)

There’s no certainty at this stage that anything will happen

Primary Health Properties previously told the market that they were looking at strategic options around the private hospital portfolio.

The company has now had its hand forced by press speculation, confirming that they are in negotiations around using the private hospital portfolio to seed a new joint venture.

Although they refer to “advanced discussions” with a potential partner, there’s no guarantee of anything going ahead. But this didn’t stop the share price from going bananas, up 26% on the day!

Ghost Bite: There’s nothing the market loves more than ignoring the risk of transaction failure. If you’ve ever been involved in dealmaking, you’ll know just how many transactions fall over during the negotiation stage.

Schroder European Real Estate is throwing in the towel (JSE: SCD)

They will execute an orderly wind-down over the next couple of years

Schroder European Real Estate released results for the six months to March 2026. But even more importantly, they are looking to achieve an orderly wind-down of the structure and a return of capital to shareholders.

This has been a terrible performer relative to sector peers, so I’m not surprised. It will take them two to three years to get it done, so this is a good example of the “marketability” discount in action – investors are smart enough to recognise the difficulties and delays in the sale of assets.

The group still hasn’t recognised a provision for the French Tax Authority dispute, despite it being an enormous €14.9 million vs. the current NAV of €151.3 million. Talk about an overhang!

I must note that the NAV fell by nearly 2% year-on-year purely due to valuation pressure in the underlying portfolio, so they have more problems than just the tax.

I had to chuckle at the Chairman’s comments that there’s a shift in investor sentient towards larger, more liquid equities. Sure, but there’s also a shift towards companies that aren’t at risk of losing 10% of their value to a tax dispute…

Ghost Bite: With a total return over 5 years of 7.4% (not per year – in total!), I don’t think anyone is going to miss this one.

Results of previous poll:

Nibbles:

  • Director dealings:
    • The CEO and founder of Datatec (JSE: DTC) repriced options over the stock worth almost R220 million. They expire at the end of August 2027. The collar has a put strike price of R91.57 and a call strike price of R121.78. The current spot price is R94.86, so this is giving strong downside protection from current levels.
    • A senior exec at Quilter (JSE: QLT) sold shares worth around R5.4 million.
    • The Chair of Gold Fields (JSE: GFI) bought shares worth R275k.
  • Salungano Group (JSE: SLG) released a trading statement for the year ended March 2026. They expect HEPS to jump to between 50.59 cents and 51.11 cents, vastly higher than 2.62 cents in the comparable period. Results will be released before 30 June 2026.
  • Crookes Brothers (JSE: CKS) released an updated trading statement. We already know from the initial trading statement that the year ended March 2026 was awful, with lower earnings across all group segments. Farming is incredibly tough, with their macadamia business described as being “commercially unsustainable” at current prices. The headline loss will be 167.2 cents, much worse than the guidance in the initial trading statement (of HEPS being between 2.35 cents and 27.85 cents). One of the reasons for this difference is deferred tax balances in Mozambique. Either way, it’s a disaster.
  • Greencoat Renewables (JSE: GCT) is moving ahead with the next tranche of share repurchases. They’ve completed €25 million of a €100 million share buyback programme. They are now commencing the next €25 million.
  • Wesizwe Platinum (JSE: WEZ) suffered a cyberattack in December 2024 that led to huge delays in financial reporting. As part of the recovery, they are busy with a major SAP ERP system implementation. They had planned a go-live in June 2026, but they are going to miss that deadline due to how long it took to catch up on their financial reporting. They’ve made a lot of progress on the implementation, but no new go-live date has been given.
  • Having moved its listing from the AltX to the Main Board of the JSE, Africa Bitcoin Corporation (JSE: BAC) has now executed a similar migration of its listing on the Namibian Stock Exchange. It wouldn’t make sense to be on the development board on one exchange and the primary board on the other.
  • PSG Financial Services (JSE: KST) has decided to withdraw their listing on the Stock Exchange of Mauritius (SEM). This will leave them with listings on the JSE and Namibian Stock Exchange only.
  • Omnia Holdings (JSE: OMN) received approval by the SARB for the special dividend of 280 cents per share. It will be paid on 8 June 2026.
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