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Ghost Stories #92: Balancing global portfolios with Europe and Japan ETFs

The Finance Ghost

10 February 2026

Ghost Stories #92: Balancing global portfolios with Europe and Japan ETFs

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The team at Satrix has clearly been busy. They’ve launched two brand new ETFs to help South Africans tweak their exposure to offshore markets.

If you’re ready to learn more about Europe and Japan, then you’re in the right place.

Why does it matter? For most South African investors, offshore exposure is really just a proxy for US tech names. It’s hard to avoid this outcome, as Big Tech has been the driving force of most global indices, let alone US indices. The Magnificent Seven are everywhere.

Well, almost everywhere.

Diversification across both sectors and regions is important for investors. In that spirit, Satrix has launched the Satrix Stoxx Europe 600 ETF and the Satrix MSCI Japan ETF.

Siyabulela Nomoyi of Satrix joined me to unpack these offerings. This included discussions on:

The macro trends in each region and how they have such different top-of-mind items at the moment
The nature of the underlying indices tracked by these ETFs and how they vary in terms of market depth and sector exposures
The investment thesis for each regions and what the drivers of returns will likely be over time
How both products should be seen as complementary to the global picture

If your portfolio is a Lego structure, Satrix has just given you two new pieces.

This podcast was first published here.

Disclaimer:

Satrix Investments (Pty) Ltd & Satrix Managers (RF) (Pty) Ltd is an authorised financial services provider. The information does not constitute advice as contemplated in FAIS. Use or rely on this information at your own risk. Consult your Financial Adviser before making an investment decision. While every effort has been made to ensure the reasonableness and accuracy of the information contained in this document (“the information”), the FSP’s, its shareholders, subsidiaries, clients, agents, officers and employees do not make any representations or warranties regarding the accuracy or suitability of the information and shall not be held responsible and disclaims all liability for any loss, liability and damage whatsoever suffered as a result of or which may be attributable, directly or indirectly, to any use of or reliance upon the information. For more information, visit https://satrix.co.za/products

Full transcript:

The Finance Ghost: Welcome to this episode of the Ghost Stories podcast. I get to chat today to Siyabulela Nomoyi, who is no stranger to the Ghost Mail audience. Siya, you’ve done a number of these with me. Quite the broadcaster, actually, you’ve become, which is lovely. I’ve had a lot of fun with you over the past few years doing these podcasts.

We have a double-header today, so we’ll jump straight into it. There are two new ETFs being listed by Satrix at basically the same time – clearly, you guys have been busy. Congratulations on that. And I can’t wait to dig into both of them with you.

Siyabulela Nomoyi: Hi, Ghost. Always great to be on your podcast. Hi to the listeners, as well. Thanks for inviting me again.

Lots to unpack on this recording, so naturally, I’m very excited as always to be here and to speak to our new offerings right now. Lovely to be here. Thanks, man.

The Finance Ghost: Absolutely. Just so our listeners know what’s coming, we’re going to talk about two ETFs today. The Satrix Stoxx Europe 600 ETF (which, as the name suggests, is based on European stocks) and the Satrix MSCI Japan ETF (again, no prizes for guessing that that is based on stocks in Japan).

Both offshore, neither of which – drumroll please – is in the US. How interesting!

Let’s start with Europe and with the number ‘600’ in the name. I can only assume that that is the number of stocks in this thing. That’s a lot. That’s 100 more than the S&P 500, so I would imagine, especially given the European landscape, there are lots of small-caps in there, in addition to some of the big names.

And obviously, lots of interest around Europe at the moment. We’ve got Emmanuel Macron with his very cool shades – I don’t know what you thought of his sunglasses at Davos, but I thought they were pretty rad, to be super honest.

They need to become a lot more economically independent in Europe. And not just economically, but also just in terms of regional security.

There have been many, many years (decades, even) of relying a little bit too much on the United States to be the global Head Boy. Now, Europe needs to step up and do more of that kind of thing.

And that obviously creates interesting opportunities, right? Because they need to switch their industrial machines on once again. That’s the theory, at least – but no shortage of critics. I’ve heard Europe referred to as an “open-air museum with little more than a tourism industry” – probably a little bit unfair. There’s also the old joke about Europe that they “regulate rather than innovate”.

So, they’ve got some reputational stuff that they need to get past. They need to show the world what they can do. What an interesting place.

Siya, I’m keen to hear, in your own words, the European theme at the moment and, of course, the extent to which this ETF is a nice pure way to play it.

Siyabulela Nomoyi: Sure, Ghost. Just talking about those sunglasses [laughing]. I’m giggling because I saw a picture first and I thought, “Ag, it’s one of these AI-edited videos…”

The Finance Ghost: [laughing] Nope! The real deal.

Siyabulela Nomoyi: Then I saw the video, and I was like, “What is happening?” [laughing]

The Finance Ghost: For a moment, I felt cool because I thought they were Ray-Bans, and I also love a pair of Ray-Bans aviators…

Siyabulela Nomoyi: Yeah, yeah [laughing].

The Finance Ghost: …and then I googled, and they were actually some other very larney, $800 jobbies which are definitely not like mine.

Siyabulela Nomoyi: Yup! [laughing]

The Finance Ghost: And…yeah. That share price actually popped, so there we have it, you know?

Siyabulela Nomoyi: Exactly.

The Finance Ghost: Throw The Intelligent Investor in the bin, like in that meme. Just go and buy whatever shades Macron is wearing. But anyway, such is life in 2026.

Siyabulela Nomoyi: [laughing] So, I’m quite excited about these two ETFs. As you mentioned, the Satrix MSCI Japan and the Satrix Stoxx Europe 600.

I just want to quickly mention that Satrix is not just adding more global exposure for clients, but it is giving investors low-cost tools to actually make sure they can diversify their portfolios and use such ETFs to be essential building blocks for the investors’ overall investment portfolios.

So, about what you were mentioning about the US, and what I’ve seen generally as well, is that, just thinking about global exposure as a conversation or looking at what it is out there, especially for SA investors, the first thing that comes to mind is… well, it’s an index like the MSCI World, which is a core index.

But if you look at the holdings, you’ll notice that the index is largely dominated by the US – about 71% US on that index.

Don’t get me wrong, these US companies are massive multinational companies that pull their revenues across the globe, but the concentration risk there is that these indices actually are mostly skewed to the US policy exposure.

Those companies are based in the US, so they’ll have to go along with whatever the policies are in the US.

So, just going back to your question about the Euro theme, the index composition and the opportunity that comes with the Satrix Stoxx Euro 600 – yes, it’s very broad, and it’s one of the most diversified developed market indices you’ll ever see, globally. So, definitely a mix of large-, mid- and small-caps in there.

The opportunity in European (and also UK) equities today is that they offer something increasingly scarce in global portfolios: a different set of industries. Especially if you’re talking about global exposure, what it is right now, as I mentioned for SA investments.

So, they offer a different economic engine and a different return profile as well from all these US-dominated global benchmarks. Which is why I wanted to talk about the MSCI World in the beginning.

So with this ETF, investors get exposure across 17 European countries, including the UK – very important; you just mentioned that.

And then, back to your point about switching back on its industrial base. These countries have world leaders in engineering, automation, and advanced manufacturing, which can benefit from reshoring and also from infrastructure investments.

So, Ghost, at the same time, the region is at the centre of this green-energy transition, with significant investment flowing into renewables.

There’s green infrastructure, electrification and climate-related industrial policies, so this creates a long-duration opportunity beyond, for instance, the tech-heavy narratives of the US markets.

I’m not trying to diss the US markets, I’m just trying to paint a picture of what you get when you think about global exposure.

Especially for SA investors. When they think about global exposure, they think about the MSCI World, but at the same time, the MSCI World is so concentrated in this one region.

Bringing it back again to this index, the UK is about 20% of the index. So, investors also get an opportunity to actually get exposure in international banks, energy majors and many UK firms, but also earn revenues globally as well.

With this fund, you get exposure to multiple economies, different policy and business cycles, exposure to strategically important industries, as well, for the next couple of decades, and a return profile that can have a very different payoff period compared to other regions.

This is why I think it’s very, very important for clients to actually just have a look at this ETF – whether they want to be partaking in the IPO that is running right now or when the ETF is listed.

The Finance Ghost: I just want to give an example. And I know this is a single-stock example, which is obviously not super appropriate in ETF land, but just to give people an idea of what’s happening in Europe – let’s do Barclays, the bank. That share price, in the past year, is up 65%.

Now, that’s in pounds. And if you’ve been watching currencies, yes, we keep talking about how the rand is doing well against the dollar.

That’s got less to do with the rand and more to do with the dollar. Because if you go and look at it against some of the other currencies, yes, the rand has had a good time. But stuff like the pound has been a lot stronger, a lot steadier.

So, Barclays up 65% in pounds. JP Morgan, probably – not ‘probably’, it’s the best of the American broader banks – up 17% in the past year.

Now obviously we could go further back, etcetera, etcetera, but at the end of the day, you can’t roll back the clock and go and buy shares five years ago. You have to look at what’s happening in front of you, and then make decisions.

And it’s just interesting, because the banks are one of the ways to see what’s actually going on in Europe and how sentiment has actually changed. And to your point, it’s 17 countries. So, people use the word ‘Europe’, but it’s a really big place, and it’s very different.

I’ve been lucky enough to travel… I mean, I’ve essentially been to both ends, in some respects. I’ve been to the UK; I’ve been to Turkey. Both of those are essentially ‘part of Europe’, but they could not be more different if you tried.

It’s like travelling from West Africa to South Africa. They might both be ‘Africa’, but that’s really where the similarities end.

So, there is diversification there. And as you say, in the big global indices, because of what’s happened in Big Tech over the past 10 years, they have become very US-centric, so if you want to achieve true diversification, even if you have the MSCI World, you might want to seriously consider adding on other regional exposures.

And that’s, of course, the joy of ETFs. You can use them as these ‘building blocks’. It’s building a big thing out of Lego (I think we’ve said that before). You pick the blocks you want.

You can use, for example, MSCI World. Give yourself global equity exposure. But maybe it’s a bit too US-centric, so you add on some of this other stuff to get to the mix that you specifically want.

And obviously, you can do that in your tax-free savings account, which is another benefit of ETFs that I always want to remind people of, because it really is a very big benefit.

So, that gives us a nice sort of ‘lay of the land’ of why this thing is interesting, and how nice and different it is from the exposure that a lot of people have.

You did mention that, in some respects, Europe has been a leader in certain areas. Renewable energy, absolutely. Another one that comes to mind for me is luxury goods. If you think LVMH, for example, lots of others – they tend to be listed in Europe.

And then obviously, with global businesses, lots of exposure (ironically) through to China, there. So, those look-through exposures are present in the story.

Any other sectors that you want to just lift the lid on as part of being quite prominent in this ETF? I mean, the other one in Europe that everyone’s been talking about is defence. That’s another big one that’s done really well.

So, Siya, what are some of the sectors that just come through in this ETF?

Siyabulela Nomoyi: Yeah, quite right, Ghost. Europe is uniquely dominant in terms of consumer staples and luxury goods. It’s an area where the region has unmatched brand equity and pricing power.

There’s quite a lot of brand heritage and craftsmanship there. Companies with over a century in the game. So, as you mentioned, LVMH.

Think about Dior, Louis Vuitton and so on. L’Oréal. Kering (which owns Gucci), and so on. Luxury brands can raise prices without losing customers in the same way mass market retailers might.

But Europe and the UK are also historically strong in financial services (you mentioned one of the banks), banking and insurance, to be exact. So, financials are consistently one of the largest sector exposures in the Stocks Europe 600 Index, which our ETF will track.

In fact, right now, it’s about 25% of that index. I’m pretty sure anyone listening to this recording will know HSBC, BNP Paribas and so on. So, that’s quite a dominant sector in the index and, historically, those have been the biggest companies in that index.

Industrials are huge in the index as well – the next biggest sector, at about 20%, with well-known names such as Siemens and Airbus, provides exposure to electrification, automation and aerospace manufacturing. Those are big names you can find in these sectors, as well.

And then the UK, in particular, adds depth in terms of energy and also natural resources – sectors where London-listed firms are actually global leaders.

So, the Stoxx 600 index therefore really provides exposure to companies which are quite diversified in terms of where they pull revenues. You can think of Shell, BP, and diversified miners like Glencore, which are central players in global commodity and energy supply chains.

I could go on, but another globally distinct European strength is in healthcare and pharmaceuticals. Europe has produced some of the biggest drug makers and healthcare innovators in the world, and healthcare is the third-largest sector in this fund, around 14%.

And then, just going back to your point when you were mentioning the different countries and areas, what I like about this index as well is that, outside the fact that you get these different sectors, there’s also the currency diversification as well.

Because you’ll get around 60% just coming from the euro currency in the index. There’s also going to be 20% coming from the pound currency from this index, and then the rest of the currencies, like the Swiss franc.

All of these currencies are actually feeding into the different layers of diversification in the index as well, which I really think is quite beneficial for investors.

The Finance Ghost: Siya, thanks. That gives us a really good idea of what’s going on in there. And what’s particularly interesting is to look at some of those big names.

You’ve mentioned some of these sectors, so healthcare, very big in pharma, some big banks, and then technology (for all of the teasing that Europe gets). Unfortunately, they really do have only one brave soul waving the flag on top of the mountain, and that is ASML.

For those who don’t know, ASML produces the extremely sophisticated machinery that manufactures chips. So, that’s why it has done well.

If you want to go way up the value chain in AI land and you’re scared of saying, “Oh, I can’t choose between Google and Microsoft,” or, “I just don’t know how far Nvidia can go,” you can go up, up, up the value chain, to something like ASML, and say, “Well, that is literally the shovel in the gold rush.”

Literally, in this case. It’s as high up the value chain as you can really go. Just another good example of how Europe is such a hotbed of R&D, actually.

I’m not sure that they’re so great at taking risk and generating lots and lots of risk-taking companies that come through, but they’ve got some incredible R&D houses, and they’ve got some really good stuff that comes out of Europe.

So again, diversification. That’s kind of the point. And that’s the thing I wanted to really point out. That the US is so tech-heavy, right? Whereas in Europe, you’re getting ASML, you’re getting SAP, further down.

SAP is struggling. I think that’s going to drop out of the top 10. Software as a Service (SaaS), as a model, is taking serious strain. The Americans are not immune – Adobe is having a really bad time. So is Salesforce.

So, it’s good diversification from a sector perspective versus, for example, the S&P and especially the Nasdaq, right?

Siyabulela Nomoyi: Yeah, definitely. When you think ‘Europe’, you definitely don’t think ‘AI’ or ‘tech’. Well, I certainly don’t.

And, from this index, infotech is currently only about 25 companies in that index, out of 600. That only makes up 8% of the entire index, and half of that weight is actually on those two names you’ve mentioned. So, it’s not a lot, in terms of contribution to the overall index.

And this is exactly what I was mentioning at the beginning of our conversation, where investors are thinking that they are globally diversified when they are actually more tech-heavy, US-domicile heavy, in terms of their exposure in the portfolios that they have.

So, with this Stoxx Europe 600 ETF, and together with the Japan ETF as well, Satrix is really trying to complete the… I mean, that’s the ‘message’ – to actually try and complete the global exposure picture for clients, where clients can think of these ETFs as additional building blocks for creating a diversified overall portfolio.

This is exactly where the opportunity for diversification comes in, and I’m not only talking about regional exposure diversification. Remember that central banks may no longer move in lockstep. This means that clients can spread their risk to areas where there are different business cycles, different policies, different interest rate cycles and so on.

So, the return payoffs can be quite different at different times, hence bringing in diversification for clients and better portfolio resilience. So, I like the fact that you can look at the US exposure and think software, think cloud and all those companies’ AI. At the same time, there are other regions where they play a massive role in different sectors as well.

What’s important when you look at these two ETFs is that you’re not really coming in and saying, “Okay, I’m replacing this exposure with this.” You’re really just trying to complement your exposure using these ETFs.

So, when you look at the MSCI World, 71% of that index is the US, and then the next bit is Japan, which is around 5% or so. That just screams concentration to you. You need something to actually just try and complement that, to make sure that you are really diversified in terms of your global exposure. That’s where the original building blocks come in, really, for clients.

The Finance Ghost: Yeah, it’s kind of like a jigsaw puzzle, and these are the last few missing pieces, right? That’s probably the right way to think about it. Literally, as you say, completing that picture. I like that.

Another important point, before we move on to the Japan ETF, is that a lot of South African investors bought the Top 40 last year and they are smiling. Well, depending exactly when you bought, but either way you’re smiling. It’s gold, it’s PGMs, it’s all of those things.

But that’s the point – it’s all of those things. It’s very much resources. And again, you can go buy Satrix RESI ETF if you want to get a pure-play look at that, obviously.

But a lot of South Africans are now sitting with this portfolio that is basically US tech and South African resources, right? If you’ve bought the Top 40 and you’ve gone and bought the Nasdaq over the years, that’s what you now have.

So again, what’s nice with this European ETF is you’re not just getting diversification away from US tech, you’re also getting it away from South African resources.

It’s an uncertain world. No one’s quite sure what will happen. If you have a long-term view where you’re hoping to basically get rewarded by the market for taking a long-term view, then – and the fancy term for that is ‘getting paid for duration’ (if you read fancy financial writing), it basically just means that if you’re willing to hang around, the market should reward you. This is a nice way to help yourself hang around for a long time, but in different spaces, as opposed to being too concentrated.

So, that’s the last thing I wanted to ask about this. Basically, there are no resources? We won’t dive into painful pasts, but Europe is not famous for having lots of resources. That’s kind of why they went elsewhere, right?

Siyabulela Nomoyi: Absolutely, Ghost. The picture that you were trying to paint, in terms of infotech and AI. So, the infotech exposure from indices like the S&P 500 have more than doubled over the last three or four years.

And then, if you come back locally, things like the JSE index harmonisation (which is a topic we’ve spoken to clients about in the last two to three years, as well), have also upped the gold exposure in standard indices, core local indices, as inward listed stocks got reduced from the index.

Just remember, Richemont, for instance, was like 15% or so of the Top 40, back in 2021/2022, but now it’s below 3% of the index. Not just price action, but the way that the index is constructed.

And the biggest resource stocks now are gold in these local indices, because of that and also just the price action from the last couple of years. So, definitely, anyone who has been holding local indices has collected a high exposure to these sectors over the years from the JSE reform and also just the strong performance, as well, from these counters.

But in the Satrix Stoxx 600 ETF, there really isn’t much in terms of materials. There’s just about 5% or so weight, and that weight is really spread out through 50 counters. So again, you get different cycle exposure from this fund versus what you currently see on offer.

So it really works well as a complement to what is out there in our suite of products and definitely not a replacement.

The Finance Ghost: Fantastic. I think let’s call it there on Europe. And now, we can put our money on an aeroplane and fly across to a place that I really want to travel to, which is Japan.

Firmly on my list. Very hard to get all the way out there when you have young kids. You need to rely on a serious support system, because you can’t go to Japan for three days. So, maybe I’ll have to wait a long time to go to Japan, but beautiful place – everyone who’s travelled there whom I’ve spoken to absolutely loves it. They describe it as a life-changing experience.

Will your money have a life-changing experience? I’m not sure. But that’s why we’re going to talk about the Satrix MSCI Japan ETF.

And, aside from how beautiful the place is and how interesting the culture is, it’s also a pretty fascinating macroeconomic and geopolitical story.

They have their first female Prime Minister. They are, as I understand it, heading to elections soon. There’s a lot of focus on stimulus, on bond yields, on currency pressures and the weakening yen, but also what this means for the exporters in the market.

And underneath all this, my understanding is that Japan is the third-largest stock market in the world. So, that is incredibly interesting.

Siya, as I did with Europe, I’m just going to open the floor to you, here, to just give us some of the key features of the Japanese story and this market.

Siyabulela Nomoyi: Yeah. Geez, Ghost. I mean, every second person I speak to wants to travel to Japan – including me. I…

The Finance Ghost: The yen needs to get weaker and weaker, then they need to somehow bring the country closer, and then we can all do it!

Siyabulela Nomoyi: Yeah, exactly [laughing]. Yeah. It is a long flight.

The Finance Ghost: It is, sadly, very far away.

Siyabulela Nomoyi: Yeah. But it always feels like to me, if I get there, it will feel like I’m actually stepping into another realm or something totally different.

The Finance Ghost: Basically, yeah.

Siyabulela Nomoyi: Quite exciting. But, as you correctly pointed out, Japan is the third-largest equity market in the world, behind the New York Stock Exchange and the Nasdaq.

Just thinking about that for a second, in terms of global exposure – again, let me just go back to the MSCI World example. Japan is about 5% of that, but it’s the third-largest equity market in the world, and it’s the second-biggest region in that index.

And I keep repeating this when I speak about Japan to colleagues, or to media or friends, but what we’re talking about here is really the cornerstone of Asian markets. A totally different space altogether.

Very physical exposure, different from cloud or software exposures, and so on, from the US and other areas as well, and also pharmaceutics and financials from Europe and the UK. So, totally different from that.

A colleague of mine said, “With all the AI boom and developments, we still leave the office, and someone is going to hop into a Toyota and drive home – for many years.” And that’s Japan.

Globally competitive sectors with advanced robotic exposures, automation and precision engineering. Japan goes hand in hand with those sectors.

So, the opportunity in Japanese equities today is increasingly being driven by a combination of structural reforms you mentioned – so, changing corporate behaviour and a very different economic and policy cycle there. Japan now offers investors exposure to a market with unique sector leadership, improving shareholder returns, and a reform agenda that is reshaping the way companies are actually deploying capital.

So, a little less cash hoarding versus the past. Making sure that the shareholders actually participate in the growth of the companies that they are invested in.

One of the most important developments has been Japan’s new focus on stimulus and economic revitalisation, alongside efforts to actually break the country out of decades of stagnant pricing dynamics.

Inflation has returned modestly, wages are rising, and policymakers have been encouraging domestic demand and investment, which is very important for the equity cycle that we can witness there.

The shift matters because Japan’s equity market has historically been constrained by a deflationary mindset, and the move towards a more normal economic environment is supportive of corporate earnings and market confidence as well.

Also important, Ghost, is that, in the happenings in Japan, the exchange has been pushing companies back (particularly those trading below book value), to actually improve profitability and capital efficiency. As I said, less cash hoarding.

Share buybacks and dividend increases have become more common, and companies are increasingly being judged on Return on Equity (ROE) and shareholder alignment. So, those are really important.

Companies have to look at that on their reports and what they bring to shareholders. This then creates the potential for a gradual re-rating of Japanese equities as corporate Japan becomes more shareholder friendly.

And then lastly, I think you can see the potential – even from returns from last year or the last couple of years for comparison. If you look at the MSCI World, for instance. Since 1994, (almost 30 years ago), the MSCI World return, in dollars, is about 9% per year, if you’re looking at that period, while the Japanese stock market is only at 3%. Big difference.

But in the last three years, these two indices have actually been on par, not very far from each other (even though the MSCI World has outperformed). And last year, the Japanese market was up 30-odd% versus 20% from the MSCI World in dollars.

So, something is coming out of the mist, years in the making, and I think it’s quite a positive outlook for the market.

The Finance Ghost: Yeah, it’s a cautionary tale about the birth rate, something I write about pretty often, because one of the most amazing statistics about Japan is that they sell more adult diapers there than child diapers, which is incredible.

That tells you how old the population is. So, cautionary tale there, and a very interesting point.

Something else I want to raise about Japan, Siya, is that none other than Warren Buffett has had some very nice things to say about Berkshire Hathaway’s holdings in some of what he calls the ‘Japanese trading houses’.

He talks about how he plans to hold those shares essentially forever, decades on end. Which is interesting because a couple of decades ago, he called Japan ‘uninvestable’. So, things do change. That is a reality, and it’s quite fun to see this coming through.

Another really big difference to that Europe ETF that we talked about is that my understanding is that this index in Japan has around 180 constituents – nowhere near the 600 in Europe, and it’s very much focused on large- and mid-caps.

Just to give you an idea of the depth of that market, if you buy the Japan All Cap Index (and to be clear, that’s not what this is tracking), that is over 3,000 constituents. Imagine! That’s like 10 times the number of stocks we have on the JSE.

I’m very glad I’m not trying to do Ghost Mail in Japan because I struggle to write Ghost Bites every day as it is. I’m not sure that I could cope with 10 times the updates, Siya.

But 180 in this index tells you it’s large in mid-caps, actually, so quite a different risk profile to the much broader index in Europe, right?

Siyabulela Nomoyi: Yeah, of course. It’s a huge market. No wonder it’s the third-biggest in the world. So the MSCI Japan Index (which this ETF will track) is quite well spread out as well (which I like), in terms of the concentration risk that one can look at when they think about index trackers.

As you mentioned, about 180 stocks, large- and mid-cap segment of the Japanese equity market. That actually covers about 85% of the entire market with just those 180 stocks. So, you’re getting almost a full exposure of what’s happening in the Japanese equity market.

These are household brand names like Toyota, Honda, Panasonic, Nintendo, Sony, and so on – everyone knows those names. They form part of that index, with the biggest position (which is Toyota) being around 4.5%. Very low concentration in that index.

So, those 180 stocks are really spread out nicely, from Toyota and so on to the smallest holding there. The MSCI Japan Index is one of the most widely used benchmarks for exposure in the Japanese stock market.

For South African investors, the composition of the index is particularly relevant because it offers a complementary blend of sector exposures and return drivers that can actually broaden offshore portfolios beyond the traditional core global exposure that we spoke of.

And industrials, consumer discretionaries, some financials and also some tech hardware sectors are what dominate this index. It reflects Japan’s big role as a global leader in transport, high-end engineering and manufacturing.

This really gives investors exposure to the real economy side of innovation. There’s innovation and the software and all those things, but you really get the real economy exposure from this index.

So, the MSCI Japan Index is also a meaningful complement to South Africa’s local equity benchmark, such as the FTSE/JSE All Share index, offering very low correlation levels between the two over many, many years of comparative returns.

The Finance Ghost: Here are some other stats that I’ll hit you with around Japan, just because I find the place so interesting.

There are around 120 million people (roughly) in Japan. There are a few different stats that I’m finding here, but that seems to be the number. That’s about… what? That’s double…no, it’s about triple – we don’t really know how many people are in South Africa, but it’s a lot bigger than us, that’s for sure.

What is interesting, though, is that recently the population drop has been the steepest in any given year since data collection began in 1968. So, this ageing population story is actually essentially getting worse for them, not better.

And that’s why they’re trying to stimulate this economy, because it’s actually a bit of a ticking time bomb in that regard. But that stimulation can really help, from an investment perspective.

I’ll give you another interesting stat, bearing in mind this is a shrinking population.

In 2025 – I found an article that talks about new car sales in Japan, that’s a really nice barometer for consumer discretionary spending and how people are feeling (especially because Japanese cars last forever, so you don’t really need to replace your car, let’s be honest) – so, sales across all brands: up 3.3% year-on-year. That is meaningful in a country that has negative population growth and a whole lot of people who are way too old to drive. That is very interesting.

Kudos, Toyota. Good results there. Ag shamepies for Nissan. They just can’t catch a break. Down 15% in their home country, alas. But again, ETFs give you broad exposure so you don’t have to be hurt by the performance of one company like Nissan.

The point is that the stimulus (I’m starting to see it there, you know) comes through in stats like that. And that obviously makes it pretty interesting from an investment perspective. And, as you say, lots of manufacturing precision, etcetera, going on there.

For those who are thinking, “Okay, well, how does this work from an AI long-term perspective?” I guess the answer would probably be the amount of AI that is embedded in these manufacturing processes and how much slicker they can become.

Or is there more to the story than that, in terms of the technology stocks in Japan?

And before you answer that piece Siya, the other point I just want to raise is the currency.

We find ourselves in this odd situation, right? Where suddenly, the rand is strengthening. We don’t know this life, as South Africans. We only know a rand that goes down. But the rand is strengthening and the yen is struggling.

So, interestingly enough, this is almost like flipping the script a little bit. Suddenly, we get to behave like the developed market (even though we obviously aren’t, compared to Japan), because the yen weakening over time is a source of potential return – assuming it carries on. Let’s not pretend like currency situations don’t change.

But if that carries on, that’s a source of return for South African investors. And then in theory, you get all this other cool stuff you’ve talked about, like manufacturing and what you’ll tell us shortly about how AI plays in that market, etcetera.

Siyabulela Nomoyi: Yeah. So Ghost, I think you might want to check those flights, in terms of the rand strength versus the yen and the dollar. It might be a good chance to have flight tickets which have dropped quite a lot there, but…

The Finance Ghost: It’s the small humans keeping me out of Japan, not the yen, I’ve got to tell you.

Siyabulela Nomoyi: [laughing] Yeah. So, looking at the strength there, the last time I checked we were about 15% or so strength from the rand against the yen and the dollar as well. It’s been sort of the same direction. So, incredible times.

But that’s the advantage when you get a locally listed ETF which is traded in rands, there’s that currency diversification. And I spoke about that in the euro as well, where you get these different currencies from the 17 European regions vs. the UK as well.

You also have the yen which has been seen as sort of like a defensive position, in terms of the currency exposure that you get there. So, it’s a major advantage for South Africans if they move their money to a currency which has been a lot weaker when compared to the rand as well. So, if that actually turns around, that’s also adding to the return for clients.

But Ghost, what I’ve also seen (and I don’t know if anyone will agree with me here) is that, while the US has sort of led the boom on AI software and cloud ecosystems and so on, Japan has been a bit misunderstood here, because they’re very important on the physical and industrial part of this entire revolution.

It’s not like they’ve been left out or so, but they’ve played a big role in terms of the physical part. As I mentioned, this is the real economy that you get when you get exposure to this index (the MSCI Japan index).

So the precision engineering I mentioned, robotics, factory automations, advanced manufacturing and high-end electronics, they have applied AI in these industries almost better than anywhere.

A prime example would be their bullet trains. They’re the pioneers in the space, starting off in the ’60s. But that industry, because of AI… the maintenance of their reputation for extreme safety, being punctual (I mean, those guys will send out an apology to commuters just for being late by two seconds, so punctuality is very important), and a very, very efficient system, even in a very high-frequency network. That can’t be just a person sitting and maintaining that. They’ve used AI very strongly in that area and also in other areas as well, in terms of the automation and the building of factories as well.

In Japan, because of the ageing population that you’ve mentioned, labour shortages and having to actually increase productivity, AI is not just a tech train; it’s actually an economic boom in the area.

So the tech companies like FANUC and Keyence, who operate in automation systems, are already leveraging a lot of the AI and will stand to benefit from it for years to come, actually.

And semiconductor companies, as well. Advantest and SCREEN and all these electronic companies like Sony, Canon for images – all these contribute meaningfully to tech and also leverage a lot from the AI.

The Finance Ghost: Yeah, it’s a fascinating space, and it’s amazing how these technological advances filter all the way down.

Siya, I think we’ve done a great job here of just piquing people’s interest around both Europe and Japan. And as always, we’ve given it a balanced look. It’s not to say, “Oh, you know, here’s a brand-new ETF, go buy it, everyone. It’s guaranteed to go up.” You’ll never hear that on anything that comes out of Ghost Mail or Satrix.

It’s more to say, “Here are some options, here are some more building blocks for your portfolio. Think about them, do the research, consider how they fit in, as always.”

One cool thing is you can do it in your tax-free savings account. That’s a point that I’ll always drive home. And you need to go and understand the huge geopolitical forces at play behind these regions.

Because that’s the one thing: when you go and buy a regional ETF, you aren’t buying one company story. You’re kind of not even buying 10 or 20 company stories. You’re really buying a macro story.

And you need to understand that and go and do the work. And if you do understand that and you get the timing right, you can actually get incredible risk-adjusted returns in your portfolio.

So, to our listeners, go and check them out. I’ll obviously include links to stuff like the fact sheets and that kind of thing. These are fresh-out-of-the-oven ETFs available on the JSE.

And Siya, to you and the team at Satrix, congrats and well done on continuing to bring these cool innovations to the South African market. I look forward to lots more of them this year. I’m sure you’ve got more planned.

Siyabulela Nomoyi: Yes, definitely. Ghost, thank you for the invite. And for the listeners, I think it’s very important that they also understand that there are local providers who have products in the space as well in the JSE, but I think with our offering, there’s quite a huge cost benefit.

The Euro Stoxx ETF will come in at 25 basis points, and the Japanese one will come in at 35 basis points. So it’s quite…

The Finance Ghost: It’s amazing, actually.

Siyabulela Nomoyi: Yeah, it’s very, very advantageous for clients out there. So, thank you very much, and all the best.

The Finance Ghost: Yeah, it’s a pleasure. It’s amazing to think you can get that kind of offshore exposure at that sort of basis points. So, well done.

And of course, available on the SatrixNOW platform as well, for those who use that. Siya, thank you and cheers.

Siyabulela Nomoyi: Thanks, man.

Disclaimer:

Ghost Bites (Bidvest | DRDGOLD | Hyprop | Metair | Northam Platinum | Orion | Pick n Pay | RMB Holdings | Vukile Property Fund)

Ghost Bites

The Finance Ghost

10 February 2026

Ghost Bites (Bidvest | DRDGOLD | Hyprop | Metair | Northam Platinum | Orion | Pick n Pay | RMB Holdings | Vukile Property Fund)

Bidvest’s disposal of Bidvest Bank has fallen through (JSE: BVT)

The Bidvest Life disposal is still in progress though (with a different counterparty)

Corporate deals are difficult things. Even when you think there’s a great deal on the table, it’s very possible that it will fall through before the conditions precedent are fulfilled.

A deal isn’t a deal until money is in the bank and all conditions have been met. That’s the golden rule. Until then, it’s just a strong promise at best and a vague idea at worst.

Sadly, Bidvest is just the latest example of this. The deal to dispose of 100% of Bidvest Bank to Access Bank has fallen through. Certain conditions were not fulfilled by Access Bank in time.

Bidvest must now go back to the drawing board in terms of this disposal, with a relaunch of the process and an invitation to new buyers. Bank acquirers don’t tend to fall out of the sky on a daily basis, so the jury is out on how long this might take. Bidvest will need to keep the bank capitalised and financially sound during this period.

At least the Bidvest Life disposal is still in play, with the buyer being a private equity-led consortium. The parties are working towards the achievement of key conditions precedent.

So, if you would like to own a bank, Bidvest is waiting for your call.

DRDGOLD joins the cool kids club as earnings approximately double (JSE: DRD)

It could’ve been so much more if production went the right way

DRDGOLD is an example of a mining house with a share price trajectory that was saved by the higher gold price, not just boosted by it. They’ve been struggling with production numbers, as the tailings facilities have been dealing with challenges like a decreasing gold yield due to depletion of higher-grade material.

In a trading statement for the six months to December 2025, DRDGOLD achieved HEPS growth of between 93% and 103%. That sounds fantastic obviously, but the underlying trend is worrying: revenue was up only 33% despite the gold price increasing 43%. The balancing number is an unfortunate 7% decrease in gold sold.

At Far West Gold Recoveries, the gold yield fell by a significant 10% as they had to process from a lower-grade area. At least throughput tonnages were consistent there, albeit of lower quality. At Ergo Mining, the gold yield fell by 4% and throughput tonnages fell by 5% due to weather-related interruptions.

Cash operating costs per kilogram increased by 13%. Group cash operating costs were up 4% overall, but remember that production was down and hence the per-unit number is unpleasant. There are some highlights here, like electricity costs decreasing at Ergo thanks to the solar plant and battery energy storage system. They managed to avoid a 12.74% increase in the Eskom tariff, so I expect that the return on investment for that renewable energy system looks good.

For the year ending June 2026, the company is trending towards the higher end of production guidance of 140,000 to 150,000 ounces (vs. 155,288 ounces in FY25). Unit costs are expected to remain within guidance.

With difficult metrics at the existing facilities, it shouldn’t come as a surprise that there’s a substantial capex bill to try and improve things. Capital reinvestment increased by 74% to R1.65 billion. They are working on Ergo’s Daggafontein TSF and Far West Gold Recoveries’ DP2 Plant expansion. Notably, the transfer of the Kloof 2 dump from majority shareholder Sibanye-Stillwater (JSE: SSW) to DRDGOLD has increased the mineral resource at Far West Gold Recoveries.

As at 31 December 2025, DRDGOLD had R1.73 billion in cash and remained free of any bank debt. They do have debt facilities in place in case they need them.

Hyprop reduces its exposure in Gauteng (JSE: HYP)

They are selling a 50% stake in Woodlands Boulevard

Hot on the heels of sector peer Growthpoint (JSE: GRT) reducing exposure to Sandton through the deal with Discovery (JSE: DSY), we now have Hyprop selling a 50% stake in Woodlands Boulevard, a retail property in Pretoria East.

The parties have prior experience with one another, with the buyers having acquired Atterbury Value Mart from Hyprop in 2021. This is important, as Hyprop is retaining the other 50% stake in the property and has no intention of selling it. They therefore need to be comfortable with getting into bed with these purchasers.

The price for the 50% stake is R790.5 million. Hyprop was carrying the property at a value of R1.747 billion (for the 100% stake) as at June 2025. Half of that number is R873 million, so they are selling this 50% stake at a discount of 9.5%. You won’t find the word “discount” anywhere in the announcement, so you have to work that out yourself to see this issue. One of the reasons for the difference might be the control premium attributable to a 100% stake vs. 50% co-ownership. But either way, it’s a disposal below book value.

Hyprop has had to provide rental guarantees to achieve that price. They’ve indemnified the purchasers against negative rent reversions and unbudgeted vacancies for two years from transfer date. Hyprop’s liability in this regard is capped at R10 million for the first 12 months and R10.6 million for the second 12 months. Along with the capped downside, Hyprop has negotiated uncapped upside – the property fund will receive any rent collected which exceeds the budgeted rent during the rent guarantee period.

Going forward, the asset management of the property will be performed jointly by Hyprop and the purchasers. The property management with onsite staff will be handled by a company related to one of the purchasers.

The Hyprop share price has had an exceptional year, up 42% over 12 months.

Metair is scrambling in a difficult environment (JSE: MTA)

This company has walked a very tough road

If Metair didn’t have bad luck, they wouldn’t have any luck at all. It’s amazing just how many things have gone wrong for them, ranging from local automotive production disasters at their customers’ plants through to huge fines from European regulators.

They still can’t catch a break, with the local OEM manufacturers reeling under the pressure of the Chinese onslaught. Metair references NAAMSA stats here: South African new car sales grew 15.7% in 2025, imported vehicles were up 30.4% and local production was up just 1.5%. Exports grew 4.4%, which suggests that local sales for OEMs were in the red.

This is why Metair has been trying to diversify through acquisitions like AutoZone, a clear step into the aftermarket sector. They acquired AutoZone out of business rescue – and companies don’t end up in that situation for no reason. They are running approximately six months behind the plan that underpinned the deal, so they need to get it back on track and quickly.

Metair is having such difficulties in the core business that they certainly can’t afford any troubles elsewhere. They’ve taken steps like closing the Industrial division of First Battery (inverters – no longer a good business at all) and Dynamic Batteries in the UK.

Despite all the challenges faced by Hesto as the subsidiary that supplies the local OEMs, that business still achieved higher revenue and better operating profit. Be careful of the base effect here, as 2024 was impacted by an engine certification issue at a major customer and an associated drop in volumes.

Let’s also not forget that Rombat, Metair’s battery manufacturer in Europe, was given a fine of around R413 million (at current exchange rates). The group is obviously considering all legal options, but it’s unlikely that they will avoid that disaster.

In terms of the financial performance, the inclusion of Hesto as a subsidiary has positively skewed the numbers, while AutoZone has given them a negative skew. Group revenue is up by between 53% and 58%, while group EBIT margin improved from 4.8% to between 6.0% and 6.2%.

The better view is to look at the segmentals, where Metair gives disclosure that adjusts for the subsidiaries. If Hesto had been accounted in the same way in both periods, OEM revenue would’ve been up by between 4% and 6%, while EBIT margins would’ve increased from 5.2% to 7.5% and 8.0%. I still wouldn’t extrapolate this growth due to the base effect of the engine certification issue.

The AFM segment (aftermarket) doesn’t have any disclosure on an ex-AutoZone basis. They note that AutoZone made an EBIT loss in this period, so that’s the main reason for the segmental EBIT margin dropping from 6.2% to between 3.9% and 4.1%.

Metair remains a high-risk story with plenty of debt, so it’s very important that they met all their covenants during the year (and continue to meet them). There’s no room for error in the debt package, with the banks holding the keys to the business at the moment.

If you include the Rombat fine, the headline loss per share for the 12 months to December 2025 is between -18 and -24 cents. If you exclude it, HEPS is between 185 and 195 cents. HEPS in 2024 was 105 cents.

Northam Platinum took full advantage of PGM prices (JSE: NPH)

Get ready for a massive increase in interim earnings

Northam Platinum certainly did their part in making sure that the six months to December 2025 was a period to remember for investors. Total metal sold increased by a substantial 13.7%. When you combine this with a 53.1% increase in the rand basket price, you get revenue growth of 60% for the period.

And as you’ve probably guessed, a fantastic jump in revenue like that can only mean even better things for profits. Still, I’m not sure you’re ready for just how crazy it gets when there are extensive fixed costs in a structure (like in mining).

The cost per 4E ounce increased by just 7.2% in the period, so operating profit increased by an incredible 439.2% to R5.8 billion. Yes, that’s more than a 5x increase. Welcome to the world of operating leverage!

We haven’t dealt with the next layer of leverage in the system yet. Northam Platinum has debt, so there’s a financial leverage effect between operating profit and HEPS. The percentage move isn’t important anymore when earnings are nearly 25x higher, coming in at between R15.185 and R15.295 per share vs. just 61.1 cents in the comparable period. Incredible.

I’ll finish with a more sobering comment: operating margin in the base period was just 7.5%, representing a time when the PGM miners were in serious trouble. In this period, the operating margin was 25.1%. Sure, we now find ourselves in a place where Northam can reverse most of the previous impairments to the Eland mine, but I’m not sure we are experiencing the super profits that the gold miners are enjoying. Things have merely improved to a level that looks more sustainable, with the year-on-year move reflecting the terrible base period.

But will things stay this way?

The share price is up by just over 200% in the past 12 months. If you annualise this interim earnings performance, you’re sitting on a forward Price/Earnings multiple of around 11.9x. It’s practically a guarantee that the full year numbers won’t be double the interim numbers, as there’s just so much volatility in this sector, but it’s still a good indication of how bullish the market is feeling.

Investors are now paying up for PGMs even though history has taught us to be careful in this sector.

Orion has locked in the prepayment deal with Glencore (JSE: ORN | JSE: GLN)

This will unlock $250 million in funding

Orion Minerals has some great news to share: they’ve signed a binding prepayment agreement with Glencore for a $250 million prepayment facility. This relates to bulk, copper and zinc concentrates from the Prieska Copper Zinc Project.

The funding will be sufficient for the Uppers development ($40 million) and part of the Deeps development (the remaining $210 million). Don’t you just love it when projects do what they say on the tin?

There’s potential for an early drawdown of $50 million for the Deeps project based on certain conditions being fulfilled.

First production from the Uppers is expected 13 months after close of the facility i.e. by the end of Q1 2027.

Losses get even worse at Pick n Pay (JSE: PIK)

The noose is getting tighter around their necks

Pick n Pay released a trading update for the 48 weeks to 1 February 2026. They’ve also included a trading statement for the 52 weeks to 1 March 2026. In the context of what we saw recently from Shoprite (JSE: SHP) and Woolworths (JSE: WHL), not to mention Pick n Pay’s own subsidiary Boxer (JSE: BOX), I’m afraid it’s not great.

For the 48 weeks, Pick n Pay South Africa’s like-for-like sales grew 2.9%. Company-owned supermarkets were up 3.5% (by far the “highlight”) and franchise stores were up just 1.5%. Total sales fell 1.4% as the group has been trying to shrink into prosperity, a very difficult strategy in retail. They note that the closures and conversions are “largely complete” – for now, at least. They will need to perform well to avoid another round of this pain.

Here’s the real surprise: Pick n Pay SA’s internal selling price inflation was 2.7%. I know this is a different period to peers, but that feels too high relative to recent numbers we saw at Shoprite group. This is the challenge of a drop in volumes as the footprint shrinks – you just can’t get the same deals from suppliers.

Online turnover increased by 31.8%, a solid outcome thanks to ASAP! and the groceries on the Mr D app.

Clothing is now a worry, with a year-on-year drop in turnover and like-for-like sales in the last 22 weeks of the period. Pick n Pay’s Clothing segment has more of a value focus, so this isn’t an acceptable outcome in the context of what we’ve seen at Pepkor (JSE: PPH) and Mr Price (JSE: MRP). They try to soften it by pointing out how well the business has been doing until this point, but you’re only as good as your latest numbers when you’re in turnaround mode unfortunately. The latest number is a 6.8% decline in like-for-like sales in standalone Pick n Pay Clothing stores in the 22 weeks to 1 February – yikes.

My worry remains that they are trying to pin this on macro factors. I quote: “The performance over the latter 22 weeks of the Period was below expectation and the result of a highly constrained market, particularly over the extended Black Friday period.”

No. The performance is because the business is still struggling after years of poor decisions, with Shoprite applying more and more pressure each year. I will never understand why management teams hope that blaming external factors will somehow distract investors from the problems. It isn’t working, with the market valuing Pick n Pay at less than zero if you apply the look-through value in Boxer, or roughly zero if you put a reasonable marketability discount on Boxer.

The headline loss per share is expected to increase in FY26 by more than 20%. This remains a turnaround that I’m staying far away from. But, I’m keen to hear your view, so please participate in the poll below:

The RMB Holdings board is supporting an offer by Attbid for all the shares in issue (JSE: RMH)

There was no shortage of debate on X around this one

Towards the end of last year, I wrote about how RMB is a good example of why you don’t want to be on the weaker end of the negotiating table. The company is sitting with a minority stake of 38.5% in a difficult property portfolio (the Atterbury portfolio), with the majority holders in that portfolio doing everything possible to make themselves the only buyers in town for that stake. When buyers are thin on the ground, prices suffer.

After much argy-bargy on this one, it became clear that the controlling shareholders in Atterbury were looking at acquiring RMH. If they can get control of RMH, then any remaining minority shareholders in RMH are coming along for the ride in a structure that is clearly controlled by Atterbury throughout.

I personally wouldn’t want to be a minority shareholder in a company that in turn is only a minority shareholder in its main asset. You may as well go ride rollercoasters all day, as you’ll have a similar amount of influence on the outcome of each ride as you’ll have on this investment.

The opportunity for Atterbury started with the acquisition of Coronation’s 28.35% stake in RMH in October 2025. It certainly wasn’t harmed by RMH then impairing the stake in the Atterbury portfolio, something that cynics say was to pave the way for this offer. I would point out that most recent offers on the market for investment holding companies have been at a discount of over 20% to NAV (net asset value) per share, so I didn’t think that the impairment for a marketability discount was unfair.

With the release of a firm intention announcement, the RMB Holdings board is supporting the general offer by AttBid for the shares. This isn’t a scheme of arrangement, although they would probably invoke squeeze-out provisions if they achieve sufficient acceptances.

The offer price is 47 cents per share, slightly below the NAV per share of 48.6 cents. I know I’m going to irritate people by pointing this out, but an offer at a small discount to NAV after an impairment isn’t any different to an offer at a steep discount to NAV before impairments. The price of 47 cents per share either is or isn’t a fair offer, regardless of the latest NAV estimate.

Here’s an interesting nuance: AttBid isn’t the same entity as Atterbury Property Fund. You see, AttBid is a consortium that includes Atterbury Property Fund and the brothers who founded WeBuyCars (JSE: WBC), Faan and Dirk van der Walt. They recently sold a huge chunk of WeBuyCars shares and raised eyebrows in the market. It seems as though their plan is to recycle that capital into this transaction and diversify their exposure. AttBid is held 49% by Atterbury Property Fund and 25.5% by each of the brothers.

The circular is expected to be released on 9 March. I expect to see plenty of arguments around this one along the way.

Vukile Property Fund’s commuter centres are doing extremely well (JSE: VKE)

To drive footfall, you must go where the people are

While premium shopping centres struggle with footfall at the moment due to increasing online adoption by consumers, centres with more of a value and commuter focus are doing really well. This is logical – you are catching people on their way to or from work, giving them an opportunity to quickly buy a few things that might otherwise have been bought from minimarts or even spaza stores (depending on which area).

Vukile Property Fund’s South African retail portfolio is focused on the areas of the market that offer strong growth prospects. In November and December 2025, their Commuter centres achieved an 11.1% increase in trading density, while Value centres were good for 8%. Township and Rural increased 3.7% and 2.7% respectively. Urban centres increased 3.7%.

In case you ever wondered why shopping centres have taxi ranks, now you know!

In terms of retail categories, there were some standout double-digit performances over the two months: women’s wear and footwear +12.7%, and fast food +12.5%. Special mention to cellphones (+9.9%), electronics (+8.7%) and gyms, health and beauty (+7.9%).

In terms of the Black Friday vs. festive split, November sales grew 2.4% off a high base (10% growth in November 2024) and December trading density increased by 4.5%. I’m not sure why they use slightly different metrics across the two months. Footfall was flat in November 2025 and up 3% year-on-year in December 2025. Commuter centres were again the pick of the litter, with footfall up 10.4%.

Moving abroad to the Castellana Properties portfolio and starting with Spain, turnover was up 7.3% in November and 3.2% in December. Segments like fashion and health and beauty led the way. Footfall fell 0.9% in November, although it increased 8.6% in Black Friday week and 13.1% on Black Friday itself. Bonaire is still recovering from the flooding, so that has impacted these numbers. If you exclude Bonaire, the Spanish portfolio’s footfall was up 4% in November.

In Portugal, November sales grew 9.5% and December sales were up just 1.5%. For whatever reason, Sports and Adventure was the standout category with 18.6% growth in November. Footfall increased 5.3% in November, although Black Friday itself was actually down 1.8%. In December, footfall fell by 0.4%, dragged down by the only asset in Portugal that isn’t managed by Vukile.

It seems like a good update overall, with the South African commuter properties offering the most exciting opportunity.

Nibbles:

Vodacom (JSE: VOD) continues to invest in the Egyptian growth story. They’ve secured spectrum under the FY26 to FY32 programme with a present value of around $350 million. They must pay an instalment of $100 million in this financial year, with the balance of the liability due in three annual instalments. The next phase of the programme is coming in FY28, so that will in all likelihood result in additional investment.

Powerfleet (JSE: PWR) released their earnings for the quarter ended December 2025. Volumes are extremely thin in this name, so I’m just mentioning it down here. Revenue came in at $113.5 million, up 7% year-on-year. Importantly, this is the first quarter where you can actually use the year-on-year numbers, as the acquired businesses are in the base. Income from operations was $6.3 million vs. an operating loss of $1.2 million in the comparable quarter. There was still a net loss per share, but that doesn’t stop Powerfleet reporting growth in adjusted EBITDA of 26% year-on-year. If there’s one thing tech companies love, it’s adjusted EBITDA!

Africa Bitcoin Corporation (JSE: BAC) announced that Altvest Credit Opportunities Fund (ACOF) – by far the best part of the group in my opinion – raised R100 million in new debt funding under the R5 billion Domestic Medium Term Note Programme. I know I sound like a stuck record, but I still wish the group would just focus on delivering the ACOF opportunity. The timing of the group rebrand to focus on bitcoin has been most unfortunate in the context of the bitcoin price, but that’s the risk you take when you hitch your trailer to a volatile vehicle.

Keen to get up to speed on Southern Palladium (JSE: SDL)? The group has been busy presenting at mining conferences, with the latest example being the 1-2-1 Mining Investment Conference in Cape Town. You can find it here.

Alexander Forbes (JSE: AFH) has released a circular related to share-based payments and a desire to issue approximately 5% of total shares in issue to share scheme participants from 2026 to 2028. If you’re a shareholder here, perhaps take a look at the circular.

Ghost Stories #91: Building sonar for navigating private credit

The Finance Ghost

9 February 2026

Ghost Stories #91: Building sonar for navigating private credit

Listen to the show using this podcast player:

Ian Norden, CEO of Intengo Market, returns to Ghost Stories to talk about the sector of the market that he is passionate about: listed and private credit.

Corporate credit (or “debt” from the company perspective) is a key source of funding for companies and can drive higher returns for equity investors if used properly. For investors in these credit instruments, optimising yield and risk are key.

But as we observe a world of shrinking public issuance and growing demand for yield, will private credit be able to address this imbalance and fill the gap?

Intengo sits at the coalface of this industry, building the data and workflow systems that allow private credit markets to scale responsibly, transparently and efficiently. They are playing the crucial role of building sonar in a market where you’ll find private credit sitting below the surface.

Key themes covered:

What private credit growth signals about economic growth
Private credit vs listed credit — and why the distinction matters
Why credit markets are buy-and-hold by design
Supply–demand imbalances in South African debt markets
The rise of hedge funds and alternative assets
Data, complexity, and the future of private credit infrastructure

Debt arrangers, advisors, treasurers, CFOs and debt investors who want to learn more about Intengo Market can visit the website here.

Full transcript:

The Finance Ghost: Welcome to this episode of the Ghost Stories podcast. Nice and early in 2026. It’s a new year. There’s a lot going on out there in not just equity markets, but also debt / credit markets (we’ll debate that now, Ian). It’s good to understand some of these trends.

Of course, to do that today, I get to chat to Ian Norden. He is the CEO at Intengo Market. We’ve heard from Ian before, in Ghost Mail. He’s written some really good articles and I really suggest that you go and check that out.

Ian, it’s good to have you back on. I’m looking forward to chatting to you today because we’re going to be discussing what I refer to as ‘private debt markets’, but as you quite correctly refer to as ‘private credit markets’.

I guess it’s because I have this equity/business-owner lens where I’m like, “Well, I need to borrow money – it’s debt.” And you (of course, often working with investors and institutional investors) have that lens of deploying capital into credit. That was a fun thing that came through, when we were prepping for the show.

Welcome, and I’m certainly looking forward to getting all these insights from you.

Ian Norden: Yeah, thanks, Ghost. Good to chat to you again. Is it sad that we find that fun? Or is it just that we’re in the right place?

The Finance Ghost: We’re in the right place, exactly. No one is here to listen to us talk about holidays. But we won’t be doing any of that. We’ll be talking about credit markets, and of course, a lot of the work that you do will come through in that.

This is really interesting: I think one of the first pieces that we did together (in Ghost Mail or from your side) was around debt just being the other side of the coin – because again, the average listener, etcetera, is very much coming at this from an equity lens. They understand the debts on the balance sheet (or credit from your perspective), they don’t necessarily understand how that market works.

One of the things that came through in some of the previous pieces that you’ve put forward is that your assumption – and this is again coming from equities – is that when you have listed instruments, there’s lots of liquidity. But actually, when it comes to credit markets, those listed instruments – those bonds, etcetera – are not necessarily all that liquid. These markets don’t see as much churn as you might see in equities, for example.

This is of course a really interesting thing to discuss just now, the differences of private credit versus listed credit.

But before we get to that, maybe just give us a quick recap on why the listed market doesn’t actually see the kind of churn and liquidity that we’re so used to seeing in equities?

Ian Norden: Yeah, it’s good to start there, as you say, as a quick recap.

I think what’s maybe not obvious to the South African market is that the illiquidity is actually not a symptom, it’s a feature. Institutions have almost set the credit market up to be low volatility, low churn as a counterweight to the higher liquidity and equities.

So, over time it’s almost become self-fulfilled, where you don’t want your portfolio to churn as an asset manager. Especially if you’ve got, in our market, a lot of life insurers, a lot of clients or investors, looking for long-term duration. They want to have something that just sits in their fund.

I think that’s a good place to start. We mustn’t see it as a problem. We must see it as something that actually helps our market create that diversified risk. And certainly, the lower correlation and the low volatility is a feature.

If you then say, “Well, what are the dynamics of the market?” As you said, as a bit of a recap, we’ve touched on this buy-to-hold investor base. The market is primary market-dominated. We get a lot more of our insights, especially as a provider at Intengo, trying to price and help price discovery. 95% of our stats are coming from primary market issuance. I think we’ve touched on before in previous articles how we do that in a unique way, to really squeeze all the life out of that dataset, but that’s still the primary source of data. And I think that’s where we’re seeing it stay, so we’re not seeing that change.

The Finance Ghost: And Ian, maybe just to expand on that concept, because people might not necessarily understand primary versus secondary markets.

Primary market is an issuer issuing debt instruments (dare I say it, ‘credit’ for the other people on the other side of the coin) for the first time. And the secondary market is trading amongst institutional investors who are buying up these instruments, right?

Ian Norden: 100%. So as a father of young children, you buy a car seat from Baby City – that’s the primary market. Your child outgrows that, you put that on Facebook Marketplace – that’s the secondary market.

The Finance Ghost: Good analogy.

Ian Norden: The secondary market didn’t create the baby seats, but you can still get a price for it. And you can still get liquidity.

The Finance Ghost: Yeah, that’s a really good analogy. And that buy-and-hold investor base, of course, is the problem. That’s why there isn’t as much data coming through the secondary market, right? Because there’s just less happening in the secondary market versus issuers coming to market and saying, “Hey, we want to raise debt,” and having this beautiful landing in this lovely deep capital pool.

Because that of course is a big motivation here, right? That there is actually a lot of money out there to flow into these instruments that companies then tap into to use to grow. The property sector, one of the big users, but by no means the only one.

Ian Norden: Spot on. We are seeing so much cash in the system and there’ve been a lot of systemic things that have happened. The shift at a policy level up to a surplus in our financial ecosystem, where there’s more money at the end of every day than there used to be. That’s one factor.

I think the other factor is there are just fewer and fewer listed credit instruments. So, obviously the SA government market is often referred to as ‘fixed income’ generically, and credit is more of your corporates and maybe sometimes your banks issuing.

We’ve seen 25 issuers. Now, there are hundreds of companies in the market, listed and unlisted, a couple hundred of listed companies. There are 25 issuers of listed debt. 19 regular issuers.

So, you’ve got all this cash looking for that low correlation that we touched on, looking for long duration, and you’ve got a shrinking set of assets to buy. When you have a primary market auction again, there’s just this rush for the asset.

Standard Bank has just issued the first FLAC instrument, which is a new concept in our market. It started this year. It stands for Financial Loss Absorbing Capacity and it’s really designed to be another layer in the bank’s capital stack.

By design, it should price quite a bit higher – and it was expected to price quite a bit higher – than Tier 1 bank paper. Looking at the guidance versus what cleared recently, the levels were just staggeringly low in my opinion. I think it’s just validating the over-demand of funding relative to the supply.

The Finance Ghost: Yeah, and it’s amazing because you’d think there would be more and more issuers actually running to get into this pool.

That sounds to me like a big supply-demand imbalance, where there’s lots of money and there would be great reward for more issuers to go and issue paper bonds, those domestic medium-term note programmes, all that kind of stuff.

But actually where we’re seeing so much of the growth (and what we’ll talk about just now) is in the private market. So, it’s just interesting – it seems like a bit of a mismatch.

One other thing I do want to touch on though. You mentioned Standard Bank. One of the other reasons why there isn’t as much churn out there in the secondary market is also just because of regulation.

Banks are super highly regulated and they’re not necessarily able to just churn risk like they used to on behalf of investors, on behalf of themselves. That’s kind of taken a really big participant out of the market, to some extent.

Ian Norden: Yeah, that’s a good point. Banks have always tried their best to provide churn and a lot of the banks’ credit desks are there to really help the market. We touched on before that there are only four of them (if not three very active ones).

So, you’ve still got a big mismatch in the number of players on each side of the deal. But as you correctly say, Regs have changed to the point that banks now actually have to sell more risk than they initially wanted to, and they can’t buy it back.

Previously, they could sell and replace. Now, there are a lot of strategies out there around what they call ‘asset velocity’, which is essentially the concept of increasing the speed of the assets on your balance sheet, if nothing else.

Banks can do deals but then sometimes need to sell that risk, so you’ve got even more people selling and there are people buying in certain instances, or vice versa. It also creates a funding gap after three years.

So let’s say post-three year funding, anything longer than three years, banks are becoming more and more constrained. That’s also creating a gap for things like private credit to step into.

And I think, to your comment earlier, it is happening. It’s just that we’re not seeing it historically. There are lots of private credit funds – I won’t name asset managers, but some of them have had credit funds since the early 2000s.

Now what’s happening is I think more of the market is catching up. They estimate $2.5 trillion of private credit opportunities globally, growing to $3 trillion. So, it’s out there. And I think what’s happening is there’s just more awareness than ever before.

And when you couple it with all these dynamics of less supply in the traditional spaces like the listed markets, people are saying, “Right, how do we get into this opportunity? How do we invest? How do we find the instruments?”

And those aren’t the people who’ve been doing it for 20 years. These are now almost mainstream institutional funds that have to change strategy to survive.

The Finance Ghost: Because another interesting lens on this is (and this is why private equity exists the way it does) it’s very different to investing in listed equities, because private equity professionals are really good at understanding the intricacies of that company, and then structuring a deal on top of it that is bespoke in every single way.

It has lots of different funding pieces. They usually use mezzanine instruments. For listeners who aren’t familiar with mezzanine, that basically sits on a spectrum between equity and debt, but anywhere on that spectrum – some mezz instruments are close to equity, some are close to debt.

And private equity investors use this all the time, so there’s a lot of complexity in the private market around structuring. And what’s interesting, I think, with debt and with bonds and with all of this kind of stuff (and this is something that you’ve raised before), is every instrument is essentially unique.

It’s not like equities, where if you look on the JSE and you’re looking at buying shares, yes, you’ve got to do the work on the underlying company; you’ve got to understand what you’re buying. But once you’ve done that, you understand what an ordinary share is.

You know, it gives you a right to vote, it gives you a right to dividends, etcetera, etcetera. You don’t need to try and typically dig in and understand exactly what the story is with that share.

Whereas in debt land, that’s not true. They’re all unique. And that almost lends itself quite well to private markets, because you’ve got to do the work anyway to actually understand this stuff in huge detail.

Ian Norden: Yeah, that’s a good point if you think about it that way. As you say, equities are fungible, essentially a share – even in a private equity model, once you set up the equity structure, even if it’s a convertible or mezz or anything, it then becomes pretty homogenous.

Now debt, as you say, whether it’s listed or unlisted, it’s going to be nuanced. You’ve got to say, “Well, is it FLAC? Is it subordinated? Is it securitised?” And that can happen issuance by issuance.

In the listed space, you might have a listed program that has flexibility. So, today you’re issuing a three-year or a three-month note and next week the same issuer is issuing a seven-year note secured by something that’s a fundamentally different analysis.

Whereas equity is equity, the term is always, I guess, infinity. All going well for the company, but debt is not. So if you’ve got this level of analysis already shifting to private credit, this then just becomes a question of, “Okay, can I trust the data and can I get the data?” Well, other way around, “Can I get the data and then can I trust it?”

And I think that’s where certainly we see the gap in terms of saying, “Okay, let us try and shine that light.” Because private credit isn’t a niche anymore. It’s actually where our real economy is getting funded. And that’s across the top 40s, all the way down. There are a lot of private credit deals happening.

We’ve touched before on the difference in the concept, where people might think private credit means super high yield. It just means ‘not a listed instrument’ for all intents and purposes.

So, we have to take note of this and we have to say, “Well, what can we do for that data to be credible?” So that if ultimately your pension is going into a fund that’s buying private credit, that fund is not taking excessive risk because of data opaqueness.

The Finance Ghost: What’s interesting again with an equity lens is there’s been this big uptick in just the use of private markets. Far more companies will change hands over and over again in the private space versus maybe the traditional approach, which is a founder builds a thing up, it IPOs, they exit over time, and away they go.

There’s so much regulatory burden around that stuff now. And it’s also really, really difficult for a founder to actually meaningfully exit in that way. I’ll use one example, which is Karooooo (with all the Os).

The founder, Zak Calisto, was looking to sell shares last year. It’s a big number – he wants to take money off the table. And of course the market response is, “Oh no, the company must be broken. The founder is selling.”

No, the founder actually just wants to take some money off the table. This is a very normal thing to do. It’s actually a pretty rational thing to do. And in the private market you can do that because you’re not going to have a whole bunch of people then saying, “Oh, there’s something broken with this company,” or whatever the case may be.

So, more and more founders are attracted to private markets. And I guess you’re seeing that now for different reasons in the debt space because for issuers, they would not be using private markets if they couldn’t get good pricing.

If the pricing was so much better on public markets, they would go through the pain, right? They would go through the process of actually listing bond programmes and doing all that work.

Presumably (and this is where you’ll have the data on this and you’ll have the insights), in private credit, these issuers can actually achieve pricing that is attractive enough that they look at it and say, “Well, the juice is just not worth the squeeze to go and be a listed issuer instead.”

Is that the underlying, core thing that’s really going on here? And then obviously, because there’s a lot of money floating around looking for a home, these investors are almost forced to accept private credit as an asset class because there isn’t enough public credit for the money.

Ian Norden: So I think the last point is going backwards. I wouldn’t say they have to accept anything. They have sophisticated credit teams and they really apply a strong duty of care to their clients’ funds. So, maybe they just disclaim that on behalf of all asset managers out there…

The Finance Ghost: But I guess the point is alternatives, right? The point is where else does the money go to look for yield?

Ian Norden: 100%.

The Finance Ghost: You can only do so many renewable assets and that kind of thing, so it’s difficult. It’s lots of money in a small pond, and lots of regulation, right?

Ian Norden: No, I fully agree. And the theme is right, I was just adding that layer for the listener worried that the guys are just throwing darts and hoping to hit something!

The Finance Ghost: Absolutely. Luckily we have a better system than that around here!

Ian Norden: Yeah.

The Finance Ghost: South Africa is very good with this.

Ian Norden: Let’s look at hedge funds. ‘Hedge funds’ is a new class. They want to be paid for complexity – they want to take risks but be rewarded for doing a bit of a deeper dive.

There, they want to come in and structure something bespoke. They want to invest in something that’s not vanilla. So, they’re not going to say, ever, “Buy listed credit.” It’s just not where they’re going to generate alpha.

We can talk a little bit more about hedge funds. It’s just bringing more cash to the system. But the reason I’m mentioning them is, they go where complexity lives, and private credit is complexity on steroids, most times.

They’re like, “Well, if I’m doing this work, let me get paid extra for the work. Let me get that premium for the work. Now, I don’t necessarily want to share that, so I don’t want that to be on a public exchange so others can then benefit from the structure I put in place.”

So you’ve often got demand-led investing, where the investors coming with a proposal are saying, “I’ll lend this to you.” There’s one example where the client wasn’t even necessarily looking for cash, and a proposal came to them through a reverse inquiry mechanism.

That’s probably your mid-cap, or your client, or even your smaller company, that’s going to generate real spreads and alpha for that fund.

Let’s go right to the top: listed companies. In my, let’s say ‘limited’ career starting in structured finance, often working with trusts as clients, the Regs used to talk that instruments must be listed.

Now, if you go look at CISCA (Collective Investment Schemes Control Act) Board Notice 90, or I think even Reg 28 (the Pension Funds Act Regulation 28), they talk more about instruments coming from listed issuers.

That’s because it’s actually far more onerous to be a listed issuer. Your equity due diligence and hoops and steps you’ve got to go through and reporting obligations are much more onerous in the equity space.

What the Reg said was, “Well, let’s adapt to that. Let’s say if you’re already getting the Rolls-Royce of market oversight, having a listed instrument from that same company becomes a bit superfluous.”

With that, you opened up the opportunity for investors to say, “Right. I can now reverse-inquire to Shoprite because it’s listed, so I don’t need them to go through the hoops.”

And then, the company started noticing that. Shoprite issues a lot of commercial paper, it’s unlisted and it’s got huge demand for it. And in theory, that’s an element of private credit – because it’s not public.

So I think you’ve got to look at the regulatory landscape. You’ve got to look at the investor universe. It’s all obviously a complex ecosystem, and then everything in the middle that we haven’t touched on sort of falls to one or the other.

The very large funds do have mandate to buy things that aren’t listed instruments or from listed issuers. As funds grow (and we’ve got some very large funds out there now), that 5% or 10% allocation becomes bigger and bigger.

The Finance Ghost: Feels like life just gets harder for the traditional banking models every year, essentially. They’re up against more and more pools of capital all the time.

So Shoprite – perfect example. They want to go and issue debt instruments. They want to go get private credit, they need to go and get money. Historically, they might have spoken to their primary bankers and said, “Well, we need this loan facility, etcetera.”

And they certainly still do that, because they like to spread their risk. But now, they can also go and issue paper to life insurers and institutional investors – and seemingly now hedge funds!

I’m not sure hedge funds would buy Shoprite paper because they can’t get paid for the complexity, as you say. But if hedge funds are now coming in and trying to get a piece of the action as well, presumably over time, that just drives the pricing on private credit down until there are no more new pools of capital trying to fight for it. Right?

It’s the supply and demand points. It gets to the stage where the super profits have been made and now it’s just a market in equilibrium. And that’s to the benefit (over time, I would imagine) of issuers, because pricing just feels like it’s going to get more and more competitive, which is good for the companies looking to raise.

And so more companies come and raise, and therefore there are more people trying to put money in. It’s a beautiful thing, right? I mean, this is a market. It’s a market like any other.

People just forget that. They think ‘market’ and they think ‘equity’, but actually out there, all the time, there are markets in everything. There’s a market for second-hand baby chairs, to use your analogy.

This happens to just be the market for private credit. And it’s changing, literally, all the time. It’s got a whole lot of different elements to it that go far beyond just pricing. It’s covenants, it’s that whole story. And that, of course, is a big part of where Intengo plays.

So, maybe to just help listeners understand a little bit more about your involvement in this, maybe they haven’t been exposed to it before, let’s maybe talk a little bit about how these workflow challenges in private credit, how these complexities actually translate into what you are doing, day in and day out, at Intengo Market.

Ian Norden: Thanks Ghost. I’ve got Ecos 1, so when you start talking about supply and demand intersecting, I’m trying to have big flashbacks to if I paid attention…

The Finance Ghost: Some PTSD.

Ian Norden: Yeah, PTSD mainly. But I do also think a big part of that, if I can recall some economics, is growth.

We can have all the money in the world, but if Shoprite’s not buying new stores, that also gets to the point where Shoprite will hit a ceiling for how much cash they need for operational expenditure (opex).

So, you really want to see capital expenditure (capex). You want to see long-term projects underway. And I think obviously renewable feeds that beast quite nicely, because they generally are big projects.

But I think that’s what we miss in SA. Seeing the Pick n Pays, the Shoprites, rolling out new stores. That’ll just help the whole problem because, as you said, it’s a market that relies on many factors.

So, what’s Intengo doing? Well, obviously, we don’t lend. We’re a market workflow system. I think our evolution is a quick evolution, because I think back to the first podcast we did a few months ago and it wasn’t even on our radar as something really needed by the market.

What we do now is we actually offer what we call our ‘debt concierge’ – because we sell it to corporates, so we call it debt, not credit – and we help corporates manage the complexity.

So, if you do get a complex deal, how do we help you now track those covenants? How do we give data rooms for you to use, under NDA or not, for your investor universe to access securely?

We’ve looked at it and said, “Right, what can our role be in a world that’s becoming more complex?”

If public credit is the tip of the iceberg and sits on top of the water, and private credit can be likened to everything below in the iceberg, then Intengo is essentially trying to build sonar for the market.

That’s where we see our gap. And if there’s a future where there’s no public credit at all, then you’re going to need that sonar to work accurately, to trust the information you’re getting.

And I think I’ve used that word earlier, we want to shine that light on the data. We don’t necessarily want to share the data with everyone, but if it is your data that you want to process, we will help you understand it.

We’ll put it in an easy-to-process format, for both sides, and we can do things like covenant tracking and early warning systems – for both parties. No one wants to go into business rescue or breach a covenant, so that’s where we’re taking our business.

And obviously, underpinning all of that is this massive data engine we’ve built, on the primary market data, for one. And now, as we do more private credit deals and we offer these debt services to corporates, we’re building a very powerful private credit database.

Even the largest of all data aggregates out there aren’t even accessing private credit data in that way. Sometimes, these guys are coming to us, saying, “In South Africa, what do you have? Can we buy from you?”

It’s clearly a systemic problem if these big global data aggregators don’t have access to the information. So, we think that can be our role as a neutral.

To really help the market (as far as possible, protecting confidentiality and all of that), to just help everyone benefit by sharing the knowledge we have.

The Finance Ghost: It’s why it puts you in such a cool position, to actually see these trends playing out and to actually see it coming through in the data. You’re literally right at the coalface of this stuff.

I have to do it the hard way, per se (you, of course, are really doing it the hard way), when I’m reading earnings transcripts and that kind of thing and then picking up these little nuggets to try and figure out what’s going on out there. Case in point, I recently read the results of two of the biggest names on Wall Street, both of which I have in my portfolio. There were many things that obviously came out in those transcripts that are interesting, but there are two that I think are very relevant to this conversation.

The one is that prime broking businesses seem to be doing well, which means hedge funds are very active. You’ve already spoken to how hedge funds are out there looking to get paid for risk.

They’re looking for that everywhere, and private credit seems to be one of the areas where they’re doing it (and we’ll get into that in some more detail because I’m keen to unpack more about that hedge fund point with you; I think it’s really interesting).

And then the second one, which is more just an observation, is there is immense growth in what gets, these days, formally referred to as ‘alternative assets’ – which is then this umbrella term where you can pretty much package just about anything.

It makes me laugh. It’s like the Industrials Index on the JSE. It’s like they didn’t know where else to put this stuff, so it goes in there. But private credit is often included in alternative assets, from what I’ve seen. And there’s huge growth in that space.

A lot of it then flows into, as you say, things like renewables. There’s demand for stuff like ESG layers on top of that, and sustainability linked metrics. That’s always kind of interesting to look at.

So, there’s a lot of growth here and hedge funds are very good at finding growth. This is what gets them out of bed every day.

Let’s unpack more about that hedge fund point and understand, aside from just the complexity premium that they’re looking for, what some of the other thoughts are and what you’ve seen around hedge funds that’s quite interesting.

Ian Norden: Yeah. So hedge funds, as we’ve talked about earlier in this chat, is an industry that’s, I think, traditionally equity focused. They often pride themselves on equity as a way to differentiate.

I actually finished reading The Man Who Solved The Market over the holidays. For anyone who hasn’t read that, that’s an interesting read about how you can really create a hedge fund of power using data. Very good.

Not that this is a book show, but I think, for the listener who has some spare time, read that book.

The Finance Ghost: The number of listeners to this podcast who love reading – I think you’ll find there’s a very strong overlap.

Ian Norden: [laughing] Yeah, so there’s a good light read with some analytical insights.

So, hedge funds. Now they’re coming and saying, “Right, how do I differentiate?”

The markets are becoming more efficient. Private equity is becoming… I wouldn’t say mainstream, but there are a lot of tech platforms globally that now increase the transparency in private equity. We see this gap to be the infrastructure layer for private credit and to shine the light on the datasets.

So, again, understanding risk and taking risk should still be able to rely on quality data. And I know I keep saying “data, data, data” like a broken record, but you can’t make a good decision with the wrong information.

If we look at AI as a theme, the future in AI is being a provider of credible information to the model, so that the AI can talk to credible facts.

Go and Google ‘AI hallucinations’, for example, and you’ll see how AI is making up fictitious court cases or referencing the wrong books and getting global companies in trouble.

The Finance Ghost: Yeah, we’ve all experienced some version of that, right? If AI hasn’t lied to you yet, it’s because you haven’t been trying AI.

Ian Norden: Exactly. And so our AI overlay is over our private dataset – data that we’ve collected, that we anonymise and protect information for. But if it’s your clients, we can give you the full view.

So, a hedge fund could come to us and say, “Here are my clients. Here are their financials. Put them in the machine.” We can then set all of that transparency infrastructure and process, and that hedge fund (or any investor in the hedge-fund space) can have a much clearer understanding of what they’re buying, and they can focus on the structure.

As we said, they want to get paid for complexity. So, set up the waterfalls. Set up the covenants; all the bells and whistles that create that yield. Do that, but spend your time doing that, not seeking out data and trying to figure out if it’s clean or not.

And then, before we move on from this theme, hedge funds also want the concept of liquidity. As you’ve said, that founder wants to sell some shares. Hedge funds are all about exit. You don’t make any money unless you sell.

So if you’re going to go into private equity… Okay, you’ve got some risk. But there’s probably a VC fund or something else up the chain that will buy it from you. Well, it’s more the other way around, but you could always list an IPO.

In private credits, a lot of the barrier to entry is the hedges saying, “Well, how do I ever get out of this like that?”

We’ve talked about how our market is buy-to-hold. I don’t want to do a 10-year mezz structure into some company that I don’t necessarily want to be investing in for that full duration.

What do I do?

So, Intengo’s offering a secondary market. Whether it’s liquid or not, it’s still a means to sell. And that’s important. Liquidity and tradability are different, and we create tradability. It doesn’t mean it’s automatically liquid, but you do have a way to get out.

The Finance Ghost: Yeah, absolutely. And the biggest appeal there for hedge funds is really just these things pay you a yield that is then unrelated to exactly what’s going on in equity markets.

Of course, that’s a big appeal for hedge funds. For most of them, the way they get paid is for absolute returns, to kind of say, “Above a certain percentage return, this is what we make.”

And that means that if they can lock in a strong yield on some private credit that hits that hurdle and gives them a nice underpin to their portfolio, then they’ll do it. They’ll always look for those opportunities because they’re chasing (you mentioned it earlier) alpha, which tends to be the return over and above the market return for them.

It’s even more interesting because they’re generally not benchmarking against any kind of equity index. It obviously depends on the hedge fund – some of them do; a lot of them don’t. They go with just, “This is the hurdle that we need to get above and away we go.”

Private credit can be very interesting for them, so I’m not surprised to see more and more activity in that space.

I think let’s start to bring it home, then, by just talking about what actually needs to happen in the market for this thing to just keep growing and for it to get to where you really believe it can get.

Again, you’ve got this great coalface-type view on this thing. You’re building the tools that are facilitating more investment in the space and allowing more issues to come to market and understanding pricing and that data, which is super valuable without a doubt.

As we understand some of the key challenges in this space, maybe the last few minutes on this one, let’s just understand from you: what do you think the big challenges really are, how can you respond to them at Intengo, and how can the market respond and actually just grow this area?

I think you made a really good point earlier, which is that growth in private credit means growth in the economy. It’s a retailer borrowing money to go and open stores. It’s a company borrowing money to expand.

People don’t go and raise debt unless they’re expanding. It’s not something you just wake up in the morning and do for no real reason. So, it’s very important. It really is.

Ian Norden: Yes. I think SA Inc. (or SA in general) is at an inflection point where the infrastructure needs to catch up now. We’ve had private credit happen – it’s been happening; it’s not a new concept – but now it’s becoming more in the press, in themes, on podcasts, as discussion items. So, infrastructure now needs to catch up.

And to think, 20 years ago, public markets were probably also showing fragmented workflows, inconsistent data, very little transparency. Now, you’ve got digitised exchanges. There’s a lot more access to information. Everyone’s got a website where you can see an investor room.

Private credit is probably just there, and catching up. There’s probably a future where private/public becomes irrelevant. It becomes a question of structured or unstructured yield. More yield or less yield.

And I think, circling back, the regulatory costs have always been high. There’s always been this assumption that I must list to get access to capital. We’re certainly seeing that change, and investors are proving that that’s not the case.

And we haven’t even touched on multinationals. You can now fund in euros and do cross-currency swaps and fund their czar books with offshore cash. It’s just global capital.

All around the world, you’ve got dollars down. People are looking for emerging markets this year. I personally think the emerging market bonds are going to have a good year, but who knows? Don’t quote me on that.

But at the end of the day, we at Intengo see a role to just grease the wheels, provide the infrastructure, deeply integrate into the system.

We work very closely with people like Strate (who I think we’ve touched on before), who are an important part of our economy that people don’t even know the name of on the street. We work closely with them.

We work with all the banks. If banks are looking to ship risk, as we’ve talked about, Basel 3 Regs and other Regs needing them to sell, how do they sell? Well, we’re here for you in that way.

Plus, we connect to 90-plus asset managers now. So, we just see ourselves as the middle of that wheel, with all the spokes going out.

And we’re (as you’ve said a few times) at the coalface. We’re very privileged. We get to design new products on a daily basis to serve the market.

That includes government T-bill (Treasury Bill) trading. We trade T-bills all the time. That stimulates liquidity in different ways. So, very privileged position at Intengo. It’s very exciting.

We’re certainly not looking to IPO ourselves. We’ve got a long journey ahead (if you’re a private equity investor in us), but yeah, we look forward to what’s happening for SA. And it’s certainly happening fast. That’s definitely the most exciting part.

The Finance Ghost: No, it is. And it’s fantastic. I think we’re in a very exciting market. So, you’re in an exciting space in an exciting market where a lot is happening. Lots of focus on emerging markets at the moment.

I think South Africa’s positioning is pretty interesting. You just have to look at what happened on our equity market last year – a lot of which was gold, sure, but it’s going to all filter through.

And there are some good signs. Some tough signs, too, if you have a look at South African retail. But of course, that’s investing. You’ve got to try and figure out where the good stuff is and where the bad stuff is.

It’s no different, really, in private credit. You’ve just also got to figure out how the instruments work, on top. And that, of course, creates the opportunity for you to do what you do.

So Ian, thank you. This has been another really insightful chat. I’ve been loving the insights you’ve been bringing into credit markets to the Ghost Mail audience.

And to listeners, who will vary from corporate treasurers right down to people who might be considering a career in this space, I would encourage them to reach out to you on LinkedIn if they want to chat and learn more about Intengo.

Ian Norden: For sure, yeah. I’m very active on LinkedIn if people want to reach out and connect, or through our website – we also have contact forms. But I’m happy to meet new people and share what we know.

The Finance Ghost: Fantastic. I’ll include that in the show notes. Ian, thank you so much, and I do hope to do another one of these with you. Wishing you the very best for 2026.

You’re a busy man. You guys are doing a lot on that side. It’s all very exciting, and no doubt it’ll go from strength to strength. Thank you.

Ian Norden: Thanks, Ghost. And likewise to you – may it be a good year.

Satrix helps investors maximise yield with new Actively Managed Income ETF

Yusuf Wadee, Head of Exchange Traded Products at Satrix

9 February 2026

Satrix helps investors maximise yield with new Actively Managed Income ETF

For over two decades, Satrix has been synonymous with index tracking, democratising the market by giving investors low-cost access to the JSE Top 40, the S&P 500, and many more indices. But with the listing of the new Satrix Income Actively Managed ETF (JSE code: STXINC), the business is proving that its philosophy of efficiency and cost effectiveness can also be applied to active management.

The new ETF, listed today on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange, is designed to offer investors a step up from traditional money market funds, targeting a yield enhancement of between 50 and 100 basis points per annum while maintaining a conservative risk profile.

Yusuf Wadee, Head of Exchange Traded Products at Satrix, explains that while the mechanism is active, the product remains true to the Satrix DNA.

The Case For Active In A Passive World

“When people hear Satrix, they think indices,” says Wadee. “However, nothing has changed in our philosophy. We are still dedicated to cost-effective, efficient exposure. However, when we looked at the short-term fixed income market, we recognised a specific challenge: there is no perfect ‘investable index’ to track. Indices like the STeFI measure performance, but they don’t provide a recipe for investment.”

Wadee notes that in the income space, active management is necessary to navigate the thousands of available instruments – such as bank NCDs (Negotiable Certificates of Deposit), floating rate notes, and Treasury Bills – to construct a portfolio that optimises yield.

“By launching an Actively Managed ETF (AMETF), we can offer the flexibility required to navigate the interest rate yield curve, while delivering it in the efficient, transparent, and liquid wrapper of an ETF,” he adds.

Making Cash Work Harder

The fund is managed by Satrix with investment management provided by Sanlam Investment Management, leveraging its extensive fixed income track record and specialist capabilities. Positioned for investors with a time horizon of three months or longer, it fills the space between a call account and a traditional bond fund, offering an efficient short‑term investment solution.

James Turp, the fund’s appointed Portfolio Manager at Sanlam Investments, says: “Globally, investors are embracing the convenience, transparency and sophistication of actively managed ETFs for both short‑ and longer‑term fixed income needs. These vehicles deliver access to institutional‑style investment strategies in a cost‑effective format, making high‑quality portfolio construction available to all investors.”

Solving The “Lazy Cash” Problem

Beyond yield, the ETF addresses a common behavioural hurdle facing South African investors. Wadee points out that investors often leave cash in low-interest accounts far longer than intended.

“Cash is very behavioural,” he explains. “An investor might park money in a bank account, intending to use it in a month. But life happens, and suddenly six months or a year has passed, and that capital hasn’t worked for them. If your horizon is longer than three months, you are better off in an income fund. This ETF provides a yield component that rewards that timeframe.”

Efficiency And Liquidity

The Satrix Income AMETF launches with a targeted Total Expense Ratio (TER) of just 0.46%, making it a highly competitive option in the income category. Furthermore, the ETF structure offers distinct liquidity advantages. Unlike some unit trusts, which may ring-fence assets during periods of extreme market stress, ETFs trade as equity securities on the JSE.

Wadee concludes, “You can buy and sell this ETF just like shares in Apple or the Satrix Top 40. It offers the liquidity and capital growth potential of a market-traded instrument, combined with the income-generating characteristics of a robust fixed-income portfolio.”

Disclaimer:

Satrix Managers (RF) (Pty) Ltd is a registered and approved Manager in Collective Investment Schemes in Securities. Collective investment schemes are generally medium- to long-term investments. With Unit Trusts, Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) and Actively Managed ETFs (AMETFs) the investor essentially owns a “proportionate share” (in proportion to the participatory interest held in the fund) of the underlying investments held by the fund. With Unit Trusts, the investor holds participatory units issued by the fund while in the case of ETFs and AMETFs, the participatory interest, while issued by the fund, comprises a listed security traded on the stock exchange. ETFs and AMETFs are registered as a Collective Investment and can be traded by any stockbroker on the stock exchange, LISP platforms and or via online trading platforms. ETFs and AMETFs may incur additional costs due to being listed on the JSE. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance, and the value of investments / units may go up or down. A schedule of fees and charges, and maximum commissions are available on the Minimum Disclosure Document or upon request from the Manager. Collective investments are traded at ruling prices and can engage in borrowing and scrip lending. Should the respective portfolio engage in scrip lending, the utility percentage and related counterparties can be viewed on the ETF and AMETF Minimum Disclosure Document. AMETFs are ETFs which are actively traded by a Portfolio Manager to adjust the AMETF holdings and asset allocation with the aim to outperform the benchmark. AMETFs differ from ETFs which only track indices. The Manager does not provide any guarantee, either with respect to the capital or the return of a portfolio. The index, the applicable tracking error and the portfolio performance relative to the index can be viewed on the ETF and AMETF Minimum Disclosure Document and/or on https://satrix.co.za/products.

Ghost Bites (Gold Fields | Discovery – Growthpoint)

Ghost Bites

The Finance Ghost

9 February 2026

Ghost Bites (Gold Fields | Discovery – Growthpoint)

HEPS at Gold Fields has more than doubled (JSE: GFI)

The consolidation of Gruyere in Q4 has further boosted the numbers

Gold Fields released a trading statement dealing with the 12 months to December 2025. They’ve indicated HEPS growth of between 110% and 123%, while normalised earnings per share will be between 112% and 126% higher. Whichever way you cut it, that’s a delightful outcome that we’ve become accustomed to seeing in the gold sector.

The obvious driver of this boost to earnings is the higher gold prices. The company also enjoyed increased sales volumes of gold, as well as the positive impact of the full consolidation of Gruyere (the stake was increased from 50% to 100% at the beginning of Q4). To add to the happiness, Salares Norte reached steady-state production in Q4, with a 43% increase in production vs. Q3.

It wasn’t all good news, though. Mining inflation is impacting the all-in sustaining cost (AISC), coming in at $1,673/oz in Q4 vs. $1,557/oz in Q3. That’s obviously much lower than current gold prices, but the mining houses will still need to keep an eye on costs.

For the full year, attributable gold equivalent production was 18% higher year-on-year and at the upper end of the guided range. All-in sustaining cost (AISC) was 1% higher at $1,645/oz, within the guided range. This shows how variable the quarterly numbers can be vs. taking a full-year view.

Discovery buys Phase 1 of their head office from Growthpoint and others (JSE: DSY | JSE: GRT)

And Growthpoint is buying 45% in Discovery Phase 2

Here’s an interesting one for you to ponder: when two large, financially sophisticated companies do a transaction, which one is getting the better deal? And can they both win at the same time?

Let’s start from the perspective of Growthpoint, the iconic South African REIT that owns too much office property in Sandton (especially of the lower grade variety). They’ve made it clear several times that they are looking to simplify and focus their portfolio. The Western Cape has certainly come up as a desired area, but perhaps most of all they need to reduce their exposure to Sandton office space, something that was a fantastic asset a decade ago and isn’t so great anymore.

Now let’s do Discovery, who occupy a beautiful head office building in Sandton that immediately irritates anyone who had a medical aid claim denied. They have 7 years left on that lease and it would be a disaster to try move the entire company again, so it makes sense to just lock in the space and occupy it forever.

We are talking about R4.05 billion changing hands here for the Grove and Park buildings (Phase 1), so shareholders of both companies will want to understand the dynamics here.

Discovery talks about how interest rates and property prices in Johannesburg have reduced significantly, so they can switch from a lease to property ownership at a lower overall cost. In fact, they believe they will save a net present value of R800 million over the remaining lease period!

What about Growthpoint? They talk about capital allocation discipline and portfolio balance, along with a reduction in concentration risk as Discovery is a single tenant. Unfortunately, this means that the vacancy rate for the office segment at Growthpoint will go up, as they are selling a fully tenanted building and being left with other buildings that aren’t in such a favourable situation.

It feels to me like Discovery is coming out on top in this transaction, although I can understand the rationale from Growthpoint’s perspective as well. Truzen, the other shareholder in the property, is also willing to sell under these terms. It therefore can’t be too bad a deal.

Growthpoint owns 55% of Phase 1 (Truzen owns the other 45%), so they will receive R2.3 billion of the deal consideration. Their share was valued at R2.2 billion as at 30 June 2025, so this is a disposal at a premium to book value.

Remember, two things can be true here: (1) Growthpoint can be selling at a premium to book value, and (2) Discovery might be getting it right in terms of believing that Sandton property is a decent investment right now.

Now we reach the second part of this transaction: Phase 2 of the building. Discovery will cancel the lease for that building as part of this deal, as they have optimised their space requirements over time. Growthpoint clearly sees an opportunity here, as they are acquiring the other 45% in Phase 2 from Truzen. This investment of R323 million will give Growthpoint 100% ownership of Phase 2.

The trick here is that Phase 2 is a multi-tenanted P-grade office building, so Growthpoint can retain a presence in the area going forwards and spread the tenant risk.

The net proceeds for Growthpoint (the sale of Phase 1 less the investment in Phase 2) come to just under R2 billion.

It will take a while to be finalised, as this is classified as a Large Merger for Competition Commission purposes.

If nothing else, this is an interesting example of the art of the deal – finding what works for each party and structuring an outcome where both feel like winners.

Nibbles:

Director dealings:
- An associate of Pepkor (JSE: PPH) CEO Pieter Erasmus sold shares worth R531 million.

There’s been an unexpected change of top management at Copper 360 (JSE: CPR). Graham Briggs, the ex-CEO of Harmony Gold who came out of retirement to help the company when it was in dire straits, has now taken a “leave of absence” – and so has Commercial Executive Stephan Du Plessis. They are being replaced on a transitional basis. Current COO Gordon Thompson comes in Transitional CEO, while Seten Naidoo moves from Chief Risk Officer to Transitional Commercial Executive. This announcement came out after market close on Friday, so get ready for some fireworks in the share price when it opens on Monday.

Eastern Platinum (JSE: EPS) has secured another credit facility with Ka An Development Co. Limited for up to C$1 million. This is in addition to the previously announced facility, taking the total to C$2 million. The debt is priced at 10.25% per annum, in line with the local prime interest rate. The company is focused on ramping up the Zandfontein underground mine to target 70,000 tonnes of run-of-mine ore per month by the end of 2026.

With the Bytes Technology Group (JSE: BYI) share price suffering tremendously in the greater tech sell-off that we are seeing (down 20% year-to-date), Coronation’s funds have reduced their stake slightly in the company. This is the exact opposite of buying the dip.

The money that makes the medallist

Dominique Olivier

8 February 2026

If you’ve ever watched an Olympic podium ceremony and thought, “Wow, must be nice,” you’re not alone. But the truth is far less glamorous than the gold glinting under those stadium lights. Behind every medal is a paper trail of budgets, grants, sponsorships and support staff invoices. Somewhere in a government office, there’s a spreadsheet that makes the Minister of Sport choke on a coffee.

At the end of 2024, Minister of Sports, Arts and Culture Gayton McKenzie revealed that South Africa spent just under R30 million sending Team SA to the 2024 Paris Olympics. That price tag covered 146 athletes, plus the technical and logistical battalion needed to get them from Polokwane, Pietermaritzburg, and Plumstead to Paris (and hopefully onto the podium). The return on investment was six medals, and only one of them gold.

New Zealand, for the sake of comparison, took home 20 medals, of which 10 were gold. They sent more athletes than us, sure, but not that many more – 195 vs. our 146.

In response, McKenzie has launched Project 300, a plan to double our Olympic team size by 2028. Lotto, SuperSport, and a few other unnamed corporate players have already been tapped for funding. The talent search to drum up these team members will happen in every corner of the country, including rural villages where the nearest training “facility” is comprised of a dusty soccer pitch and a dream.

It’s an expensive gamble. And it raises a question that South Africa has been trying to answer for years: what does it really cost to build an Olympian?

The price of potential

You might think that world-class athleticism is something you’re either born with or you’re not – some combination of genetics, grit, and a coach shouting “HARDER!” from the sidelines. But the truth is more complicated (and more costly).

At the elite level, talent alone gets you almost nowhere. Funding is the invisible scaffolding holding up every podium success. Without money, athletes scrape by in the gaps between training shifts, part-time work, and whatever side hustle pays for petrol to get to physio. With money, athletes enjoy what wealthier nations consider non-negotiable: nutritionists, psychologists, physiologists, specialist coaches, sports scientists, recovery tech, and international competition exposure.

Think of athlete development like a Jenga tower. Every missing block, from diet and rest to coaching and equipment, makes the structure wobblier. Wealthy nations start with a perfectly aligned tower. Smaller economies start halfway through the game, and someone’s already taken out all the centre blocks.

And then there’s the brutal catch-22: to get funding, you must perform. But to perform, you need funding. It’s a system that rewards the already-successful and punishes the promising-but-poor. Many South African athletes know this tension intimately. When your stipend depends on your last race time, every training session carries the weight of your livelihood.

The Olympic arms race

The world’s biggest sporting nations spend big in their pursuit of Olympic glory. The US Olympic and Paralympic Committee threw $327 million at athlete development in 2022. The UK spent the equivalent of over R7 billion ahead of Tokyo 2020. These programmes include everything from training technology to psychological support and even marketing.

Then there’s the second category of spending: the rewards. Once the medals are won, the prize money kicks in, and this is where things get eyebrow-raising. Hong Kong pays an athlete R14.7 million for a gold medal. They don’t do badly over in Serbia either, with a cool R4.1 million. Some countries even hand out property portfolios! Poland’s gold medallists at Paris 2024 enjoyed diamonds, holidays, artwork, and actual apartments in Warsaw.

Research finds a strong correlation between elite sport funding and international success. Countries investing heavily in facilities, coaching, and athlete support tend to feature more often on podiums. That’s why wealthier countries with well-financed sports programmes still dominate the medal tables.

But that relationship, while statistically significant, also reveals exceptions. Some lower-income nations continue to achieve rare but remarkable success, often punching above their “expected” weight. This suggests that performance depends on more than just bankroll: sometimes, environmental, cultural, physiological and personal factors tip the balance.

Take long-distance running, for instance. Most elite athletes in these events come from high-altitude or rural areas, where daily life involves long endurance tasks like running to school, walking for kilometres to get to a shop, and growing up in an oxygen-poor environment. For many, those conditions deliver a built-in advantage that no high-tech gym can simulate.

Who pays, and who profits?

That said, structural support cannot be ignored. Studies of elite-sport funding models show countries achieve more consistent results when they prioritise sustained investment over hit-and-miss cycles. Well-funded national programmes generally deliver better coaching, injury prevention, recovery protocols, sports science support, and logistical backing, which is especially important in high-performance sports and for athletes outside globally dominant disciplines.

The absence or weakness of those systems in poorer countries often means talent goes unrefined, potential remains unrealised, and consistency fades. For athletes who lack stable funding, sacrifices may build discipline, but they seldom build a career.

So who pays to build a champion? And who benefits when the medals come home?

The answers are messy. In wealthy countries, government-backed systems invest heavily in athlete development because sporting success is good national PR. Gold medals translate into international prestige, influence, and a type of soft power. In nations with fewer resources, the funding question becomes a tug-of-war between government budgets, private sponsors, athletes’ personal finances, and pure willpower. South Africa finds itself in the awkward middle. We’re not broke – but we’re also not the UK.

R30 million feels like a lot until you compare it to the countries we’re trying to compete with. And while sport is a powerful unifier in South Africa (ask anyone who had a Springbok flag painted on their face in 2023), we are also a nation with some urgent fires to put out – sometimes quite literally.

On one hand, Project 300 is a credible idea: a nationwide search for hidden talent, especially in under-resourced communities, could unearth athletes with raw potential. South Africa has a history of producing remarkable underdog performances, and a project like this could expand the pool significantly. But on the other hand, without sustained investment in infrastructure, coaching, sports medicine, recovery programmes, nutrition, and long-term athlete support, Project 300 risks becoming a nationwide talent audition with no runway. We might spot raw diamonds, only to have them fade because the polishing tools aren’t there.

If the plan merely identifies potential athletes but doesn’t build a support structure comparable to those used by leading sporting nations, then we may end up expecting world-class performances “on the cheap”. And that seldom works.

One thing is for sure: the Olympic Dream continues to capture the imagination.

About the author: Dominique Olivier

Dominique Olivier is the founder of human.writer, where she uses her love of storytelling and ideation to help brands solve problems.

She is a weekly columnist in Ghost Mail and collaborates with The Finance Ghost on Ghost Mail Weekender, a Sunday publication designed to help you be more interesting. She now also writes a regular column for Daily Maverick.

Dominique can be reached on LinkedIn here.

Ghost Bites (Anglo American | ArcelorMittal | Boxer | Glencore | Hudaco | KAL | Kumba | Lesaka | MTN | Prosus – Naspers | Sasol | Super Group | Valterra Platinum)

Ghost Bites

The Finance Ghost

6 February 2026

Ghost Bites (Anglo American | ArcelorMittal | Boxer | Glencore | Hudaco | KAL | Kumba | Lesaka | MTN | Prosus – Naspers | Sasol | Super Group | Valterra Platinum)

Diamonds continue collapsing at Anglo American, with all eyes on near-term copper (JSE: AGL)

But copper production in 2025 was at the lower end of guidance

Anglo American has carved its group into two segments called “simplified portfolio” (the stuff they are keeping) and “exiting businesses” (the stuff they are selling).

That makes it sound like the businesses they don’t want are now someone else’s problem, but that’s not the case. At this stage, there are no concrete deals on the table for diamonds or steelmaking coal, with only a sales process running in the background. At least they have a buyer for nickel, with that deal currently going through approval processes.

Average diamond prices were down 7% year-on-year for full year 2025 and 17% for the fourth quarter. This is despite a 35% drop in fourth quarter production, so even a sharp drop in supply hasn’t sent prices the right way. Full year production was down 12%. At this rate, they might have to pay someone to drag De Beers away! Jokes aside, they’ve flagged that an impairment is likely in the full year numbers based on negative EBITDA in 2025. The lab-grown diamond disruption went beyond even my expectations when I first started writing about it.

In steelmaking coal, production fell by 15% in the fourth quarter and 43% for the full year. Thankfully, this drop is largely (but not exclusively) due to disposals of assets that were in the base period and not in this period.

Anglo would like to sweep these businesses under the carpet and move on. As you can see, it’s not quite that easy.

Let’s move on to the stuff they actually want to own.

We know that copper is the big focus, yet production actually fell 14% in the fourth quarter and 10% for the full year. They produced 695 kt in 2025, right near the bottom of the guided range of 690 – 750 kt. Great numbers at Los Bronces were offset by lower grades at Quellaveco and Collahuasi. Unfortunately, copper guidance for 2026 and 2027 has been revised lower. The 2026 revision is no joke – the lower end of the guided range has been dropped by 8%.

In premium iron ore, you can read further down about how well Kumba Iron Ore (JSE: KIO) performed within the Anglo stable. The other asset is Minas-Rio in Brazil, where production dipped by 1% for the full year. Guidance for 2026 is much more encouraging for that asset, revised higher thanks to recent operational performance.

The third and final business they plan to keep is manganese ore. Production jumped by 22% for the quarter and 30% for the year, with production now at normalised levels after a tropical cyclone hit Australia in March 2024.

Despite highlights appearing to be thin on the ground in this update, Anglo’s share price is up 34% in the past year thanks to exuberance around copper.

Losses down and debt up at ArcelorMittal (JSE: ACL)

Is a government bailout the only hope for this company?

ArcelorMittal released results for the year ended December 2025. It’s hard to imagine how much longer this can go on for, as the company has generated R8.4 billion in headline losses over the past two years. They are sitting with net borrowings of R6.5 billion, so we are firmly in “too big to fail” territory here.

Or are we? Will this thing be allowed to collapse? And is the South African government, via the IDC, the only potential saviour?

It’s hard to find positives here unfortunately. Even though the headline loss of R3.4 billion was much better than in 2024, it’s still a huge number. The net borrowings number is R1.3 billion higher than the year before. And perhaps most shockingly, this is despite the “Longs” business being EBITDA neutral in 2025! The group EBITDA loss in 2025 was R1.1 billion instead of almost R3 billion in the prior year.

Now get ready for the worst news of all: the stronger rand makes everything worse for ArcelorMittal. It makes imports cheaper and exports less attractive. This is a company that couldn’t keep it together when the rand was weak, so what do you think happens in 2026 with a stronger rand?

The company has flagged a commitment by the DTIC to address fair trade protections in the first quarter of 2021. The cynic in me can’t help but wonder whether government will give the business a helping hand before or after doing a deal to acquire these assets.

The share price of R1.27 is up 12.5% over 12 months. This is despite a headline loss per share of R3.01. There is only one reason why this is possible: the market is hoping with everything it has that government will swoop in with a deal.

I’ll keep my money far away from that “investment” thesis, thank you very much.

Boxer is certainly a worthy adversary for Shoprite (JSE: BOX)

The periods aren’t directly comparable, but Boxer is looking good

Boxer is by far the best part of the Pick n Pay (JSE: PIK) stable. The grocery chain competes very well for lower-income customers, giving Shoprite (JSE: SHP) something to really think about in the Shoprite and Usave chains. The winners are of course the consumers who get to enjoy a period of price deflation as these grocery stores fight over the most price sensitive customers in the country.

If you look over the past year, Shoprite is a victim of its valuation and a slowdown in growth. Pick n Pay is a victim of… well, a whole lot of things. And Boxer is the one you wanted to own, up 11.4%:

It gets tricky to compare the performance, as Boxer has a different reporting period to Shoprite. Due to factors like two-pot withdrawals at the end of 2024 and the timing of inflationary changes, it’s dangerous to compare the performance of companies over different periods and draw any conclusions.

Starting with just Boxer’s numbers, turnover for the 48 weeks to 1 February 2026 was up 11.9%, with like-for-like growth of 3.9%. For the 22 weeks to 1 February 2026, turnover growth slowed to 9.8% and 2.4% on a like-for-like basis. Interestingly, November was the month that they highlight as being the biggest struggle! Clearly, Black Friday at Boxer isn’t a thing.

For the 48-week period, there was deflation of -1%. For the 26 weeks to 31 August 2025, deflation was -0.7%. The closest comparable period we have at Shoprite is the six months to December 2025, in which deflation at Usave (the closest in spirit to Boxer) was -0.7%.

As you can see in the gap between total growth and like-for-like growth, Boxer is aggressively rolling out stores. They are on track to hit their targets for the 52 weeks to 1 March 2025 (the full financial year). They also believe that they will meet the trading profit growth targets based on an expectation of strong year-on-year numbers in February.

It’s a great business, that’s for sure.

Glencore doesn’t want to be swallowed up by Rio Tinto (JSE: GLN)

Mining mega-mergers remain rare things

The year kicked off with news of Glencore and Rio Tinto circling each other on the dancefloor. As is so often the case in huge mergers like these, one party decided to go home early and leave the other one hanging.

In this case, it was Glencore who decided that they weren’t comfortable with the value being put forward by Rio Tinto. At least Glencore was honest about one of the other issues: Rio Tinto insisting on retaining the Chairman and CEO roles. The mining industry does have a reputation for having bigger-than-average egos in the boardroom!

The official record will show that Glencore feels that the copper assets were being undervalued in the negotiations. I would’ve loved to be a fly on the wall for some of these deal discussions.

Glencore fell over 5% on the day, but the market hasn’t had an opportunity to digest this news yet.

Double-digit dividend growth at Hudaco (JSE: HDC)

The engineering consumables segment is doing all the heavy lifting

Hudaco has released results for the year ended November 2025. Turnover increased 4%, operating profit was up 9%, HEPS grew 16% and the dividend was up 10%. That sounds like a perfect story of leverage, with top-line growth translating into a much better outcome for shareholders by the time you reach the bottom of the income statement.

The segmental story is somewhat less steady.

Consumer-related products suffered a turnover decline of 2%, although they did well to increase operating profit by 0.6% despite this dip. The battery and alternative energy business is almost a lost cause, with Hudaco impairing the goodwill in that business in full. Other businesses like automotive, CADAC and data networking did well.

Engineering consumables brought the growth, with turnover up 10.1% and operating profit increasing by 11.2%. But what is the source of that growth? Acquisitions contributed R58 million in operating profit, so it looks as though the existing businesses only added R12 million in incremental operating profit (total operating profit was R696 million, up by roughly R70 million).

By now, the main thing you should be wondering is whether the stronger rand is a risk. Sure enough, the prospects section does note that it will put selling prices under pressure. They hope that some consumer relief will accompany this.

I wonder if anyone at the SARB reads these things when making interest rate decisions? Because until rates start coming down, I fear that the consumer relief isn’t going to happen.

KAL Group has a new CEO (JSE: KAL)

The group enters this new chapter in excellent shape

At KAL Group’s AGM, they announced that Sean Walsh will be retiring as CEO with effect from 28 February 2026. That’s a rather sudden change, not least of all after a 15-year term! Walsh will be available to the board on a consulting basis in the coming months.

This paves the way for Johann le Roux to take the reins. If that name sounds familiar, it’s because le Roux has just stepped down at Zeder (JSE: ZED) in the wake of the Zaad disposal being announced. I’m sure he’s excited to move into a growth business rather than a value unlock story.

And growth is the word: at the AGM, the company reiterated its 2030 goal of 15% compound annual growth in profit before tax at Agrimark and PEG. They are also targeting a 15% return on equity with a 40% gearing ratio.

These are lofty targets, representing an acceleration from the profit before tax growth of 12.8% in 2025. With considerable exposure to fuel retail and the whims of the fuel price, it’s important to remember that not everything is within their control.

The AGM update included news on trading during the first quarter of 2026. Recurring HEPS increased 13.4% and debt dropped by R385 million year-on-year, with a gearing ratio of 34.3%.

The share price is only up 4.7% in the past year, but that doesn’t tell the full story. It went as low as R36.69 before recovering to the current level of R49.00 (pretty close to the 52-week high of R53.49).

Kumba Iron Ore had a pretty good year in 2025 (JSE: KIO)

Earnings are up and there’s a more positive narrative around Transnet

Kumba Iron Ore released an update for the fourth quarter of 2025, which means we have full year numbers as well. This was accompanied by a trading statement indicating growth in HEPS of between 11% and 23% – a strong outcome. The share price is only up 6% over 12 months though, so the market is taking a cautious approach on this one.

Production in the fourth quarter was up 10% year-on-year. For the full year, they were up 1%. Kolomela was up 7% for the year and Sishen (which is 2.5x larger) was down 1% due to planned maintenance.

Kumba is responsible for getting the stuff out of the ground, but Transnet then needs to rail it to Saldanha. This is historically where things have gone wrong. Despite two derailments, there was a 2% increase in ore railed to the port in Q4!

Once it gets to the port, it then needs to be put on a ship. With high wind speeds and other issues, this is where things went south in Q4. Sales were down 5% year-on-year for the quarter, and up 2% for the full year.

As you can see, it’s not easy running this business. Nonetheless, it was a successful year, with earnings up thanks to better export ore prices, the 2% increase in sales volumes and penalty income from Transnet.

Production guidance for 2026 is unchanged at 31 to 33 Mt, while 2027 and 2028 sit at 35 to 37 Mt.

Lesaka Technologies finally delivers positive net income (JSE: LSK)

They’ve met profitability guidance and reaffirmed full-year guidance

Lesaka Technologies has released results for the second quarter of the year. Before we dig in, I want to remind you that I recorded a podcast in November last year with Executive Chairman Ali Mazanderani. It’s still a really great resource to help you understand the company, so check it out here.

In terms of the latest numbers, net revenue (a non-GAAP measure) was up 12.2% in dollars and 16% in rand. If you work with revenue as reported, it was up 1.4% in dollars and down 3% in rand.

That won’t really blow anyone’s hair back in terms of growth, but we haven’t gotten to the numbers that really count yet.

Operating income jumped by a lovely 265% in rand as the company started to climb the J-curve (or the S-curve, depending on your long-term view here). Curve shapes aside, profits are now starting to climb as the company has reached that inflection point that all successful technology companies must move through.

Most encouragingly, there was positive net income this quarter, a massive positive swing from where they were a year ago. This is a big deal for the company, as this is the first positive net income since Lesaka was put together in 2022. It’s also worth noting that this is the 14th consecutive quarter of meeting guidance.

Based on these numbers, further revenue growth will likely have a great impact on the bottom line. We can therefore move on to look at Lesaka’s three segments.

The largest is Merchant, where net revenue dipped 2% and adjusted EBITDA was down 6%. This is why the group revenue picture isn’t as inspiring as one might hope in this quarter.

The Consumer segment is much smaller on the net revenue line, but almost as big on the adjusted EBITDA line as Merchant. This is especially true after adjusted EBITDA more than doubled (up 106%) based on revenue growth of 38%.

The Enterprise segment is scaling rapidly, with revenue up 58% and adjusted EBITDA swinging from a loss to a solid positive of R24.3 million. For context, that’s still much smaller than Consumer’s EBITDA of R159 million, or Merchant at R170 million.

The guidance for the year ending June 2026 reflects expected growth in adjusted earnings per share of more than 100%. Most importantly, they expect positive net income. This excludes the acquisition of Bank Zero, a critical additional step in this journey.

The Lesaka share price hasn’t really captured the imagination of the market. Will a swing into profitability change that?

MTN is potentially acquiring the remaining 75% in IHS (JSE: MTN)

This seems like a slightly odd allocation of capital

As I wrote about in the Vodacom (JSE: VOD) update earlier this week, the macroeconomic situation in Africa is giving telcos like MTN a golden opportunity to cement their positions on the continent and generate proper cash flows.

It therefore makes sense for the companies to be allocating more capital to Africa. But I’m not so sure that it makes sense for this to take the form of owning the towers that are leased to the telco companies. The trend in the sector has been to separate the towers from the telco operators, as one is essentially a property company and the other is a technology company.

Despite this, MTN has confirmed rumours that they are at an advanced stage of discussions with IHS to acquire the remaining 75% in the company that it doesn’t already own. They are looking at an offer price close to the recently traded price of IHS on the New York Stock Exchange.

The MTN share price closed 5.8% lower on the day. I can’t say that I’m surprised.

Prosus is focused on execution, not M&A (JSE: PRX | JSE: NPN)

The real test of new management has arrived

Whenever there’s an exciting new thing out there (like AI), there’s always a flurry of capital that flows into it. When every dart is thrown at the dartboard, some of them are bound to land in weak positions – and others will fall off altogether. You can only see the outcome once the chaos of the initial throws has subsided.

Prosus is now 32% off its 52-week high. This gets me excited as a long-term investor. At nearly 38 years old, I still have plenty of time for the market to pay me for duration. In other words, riding out volatility in core positions is something I have no difficulties in doing.

Why the drop? Well, unless you haven’t been paying any attention at all to the big tech names globally, there’s been a shaking of the tree in anything related to AI and software. The market is treating almost everything with suspicion. This creates an opportunity for investors to identify the good stuff that gets sold off with the bad.

A letter to shareholders from CEO Fabricio Bloisi is no doubt an effort to remind investors of the long-term story. But he’s also given an important update about the near-term strategy: “I don’t have plans for any major M&A while we focus on this” – and by “this” he means execution on what they already own.

In fact, instead of doing major acquisitions, they will be selling more than $2 billion in assets in this fiscal year and even more the following year. Share repurchases remain a core focus, something that you absolutely want to see when a share price has come off the boil. It’s worth noting that they fund a large part of the buybacks through selling shares in Tencent, where the share price is also under pressure. It would be ideal if the buybacks were funded fully by cash profits in the group.

Speaking of profits, Prosus indicates that they are still on track to do over $7.3 billion in revenue and over $1.1 billion in adjusted EBITDA in FY26. For context, in FY25 they achieved $6.2 billion in revenue and $655 million in adjusted EBITDA.

This is only possible if the major acquisitions are performing well. In Brazil for example, Despegar is up more than 30% year-on-year in local currency and 50% in dollars, with strong sales synergies delivered with other Prosus businesses in the region. At Just Eat Takeaway.com in Europe, new management is in place and initial testing is encouraging, but there’s a very long way to go. At La Centrale, they are giving a positive overall view, but again these are early days and there’s a lot of integration to do with OLX.

On the topic of classifieds, OLX is on track for $450 million in EBITDA. They will be hosting an investor event soon that will be focused on the classifieds opportunity.

iFood, which is Bloisi’s area of deepest expertise, is facing strong competition in Brazil from new entrants who are burning through VC money with unsustainable pricing structures. I remember the exact same thing happened with Bolt Food in South Africa. Today, Bolt is gone and Uber Food is still here. I therefore understand when Prosus talks about how customers return to the best product and service once the subsidies are over, but that doesn’t mean that there won’t be short-term pain.

I remain long here. And if it keeps dropping, I’ll buy more.

A nasty knock to earnings at Sasol (JSE: SOL)

Better fuel volumes can’t offset the weak prices

Everyone’s favourite wild child is back with another day of volatility. Sasol closed 3.8% lower on Thursday, which means that it is flat over 90 days despite swinging wildly between R99 and R127 per share over that period.

The previous update on manufacturing performance was positive, indicating progress made in the South African fuel business. But that’s only half the battle won for any industrial company, with the other half being the selling price of the products. With a 17% decline in the average price of Brent Crude (on a rand per barrel basis) for the six months to December, Sasol’s earnings didn’t stand much chance.

To rub salt in the wound, the average chemicals basket price in dollars fell 3% over the period as well.

Despite the mitigating factors like much better refining margins, a 3% increase in sales volumes and a drop in costs, Sasol still suffered a decline in HEPS of between 29% and 40%. Adjusted EBITDA fell by between 4% and 21%.

I’ve been wondering how it is possible that the Sasol share price is up 35% over the past year despite a stubbornly flat Brent Crude price and a strengthening rand. Now that we know where HEPS has gone, I’m asking myself that question even more.

Results will be released on 23rd February.

Super Group is acquiring 70% in DIG Group (JSE: SPG)

The deal is valued at R447 million

After releasing an interesting update that laid bare the challenges in the UK automotive segment, Super Group announced that they are acquiring 70% in the DIG group of companies. They have the option to acquire the remaining 30% after the 5th anniversary of the effective date, so there’s a pathway to effective control here.

This business will fit into the fleet solutions offering at Super Group, with DIG’s niche being in sectors (like mining and civil engineering) that have strict safety compliance requirements and complicated induction and onboarding protocols. DIG is currently active across 19 mining sites, with exposure to clients in various commodities like coal, chrome and gold.

The fair value has been set at R576 million, with profit after tax for the year ended February 2025 of R191.5 million. I can’t help but wonder why the seller is happy to accept a Price/Earnings multiple of just 3x for this asset!

The purchase price is R448 million settled up-front in cash, with up to R160 million as a deferred profit warranty payment. The put option down the line will be based on the fair value of the business, with a cap in place as well.

The profit warranty is based on a profit after tax of over R200 million per annum in FY26 and FY27. The Price/Earnings multiple applicable to the profit warranty payment is 3.2x.

And no, your mental maths isn’t wrong – the numbers don’t reconcile particularly well in terms of the fair value and the 70% being acquired at this stage.

Despite Super Group trading on a P/E of over 7x, the market reacted negatively to this news of an acquisition at 3x. The share price closed 3.4% lower on the day.

Valterra took advantage of PGM prices in the fourth quarter (JSE: VAL)

They did what they needed to do in terms of production

As I’ve written many times, mining management teams are judged on production performance and capital allocation. This is because they have control over these factors, unlike commodity prices where they are merely passengers on that journey.

In the quarter ended December 2025, Valterra Platinum needed to take advantage of strong PGM prices (the basket price in rand was up 41% year-on-year). Total production increased by 1% and so did refined PGM production on a year-on-year basis. Momentum was good, with refined PGM production up 6% on a quarter-on-quarter basis.

PGM sales volumes were up 4% for the quarter, with some missed sales in Q3 rolling into this quarter.

Still, even if you adjust for the timing distortion of Kroondal, full year PGM sales volumes were down 10% based on refined PGM production falling 13%. Valterra may have had a decent end to the year, but the full year picture isn’t nearly as strong thanks to the flooding at Amandelbult (among other challenges).

Production guidance for 2026 to 2028 is identical across the three years: annual refined PGM production of between 3.0 and 3.4 million ounces. For context, 2025 was 3.4 million ounces. This tells you that earnings growth depends on efficient mining and especially ongoing improvement in PGM prices, rather than an uptick in production.

Nibbles:

Director dealings:
- Two directors of Calgro M3 (JSE: CGR) exercised options and received a total value of R1.14 million, settled in cash. They seem to have retained the post-tax shares.

Exxaro (JSE: EXX) successfully refinanced R10 billion in corporate facilities due in April 2026 and added another potential R3 billion of debt on top for good measure. The funding structures range from term loans to recurring credit facilities, with an accordion of R3 billion applicable to all facilities. This is essentially a mechanism that allows for the facilities to be increased without renegotiating all the terms. Financial flexibility is never a bad thing to have.

There have been numerous announcements about Ninety One (JSE: NY1 | JSE: N91) acquiring stakes in South African listed companies of between 5% and 10%. I am sure that this is because the transaction with Sanlam (JSE: SLM) for the South African active investment management business has closed, so the ex-Sanlam stakes now fall under the Ninety One umbrella.

I’m confused once again about these weird stakes that Standard Bank (JSE: SBK) is picking up in other banks. One theory is that they are held by Liberty as part of a broader investment strategy. That seemed plausible, but now Nedbank (JSE: NED) has announced that the communication sent by Standard Bank to Nedbank was actually sent in error, and that they do not in fact own more than 5% of the shares. Very, very odd.

Southern Palladium (JSE: SDL) gave an update on the drill programme for the definitive feasibility study (DFS) at the Bengwenyama Project. The DFS remains on track for completion by the end of August 2026.

Argent Industrial (JSE: ART) announced that Fred Litschka will be retiring as an executive director after an incredible innings of over 22 years. That’s a well-deserved retirement I think!

PODCAST: No Ordinary Wednesday Ep120 | Water risk is business risk

Investec Focus Radio

5 February 2026

PODCAST: No Ordinary Wednesday Ep120 | Water risk is business risk

Listen to the podcast here:

This image has an empty alt attribute; its file name is Investec-banner.jpg

Water scarcity is no longer a future risk. It is already reshaping how businesses operate, invest and grow in South Africa.

With water demand in Gauteng at record levels and ageing infrastructure under strain, water has become a material constraint on business continuity, supply chains and long-term competitiveness. For many companies, water security is now as critical as energy security.

In this episode of No Ordinary Wednesday, recorded after an Investec and Proparco water-resilience event, Jeremy Maggs is joined by Dr Sean Phillips, Director-General of the Department of Water and Sanitation; Helen Hulett, water-security advisor; and Melanie Humphries, Head of Sustainable Solutions at Investec.

Hosted by seasoned broadcaster, Jeremy Maggs, the No Ordinary Wednesday podcast unpacks the latest economic, business and political news in South Africa, with an all-star cast of investment and wealth managers, economists and financial planners from Investec. Listen in every second Wednesday for an in-depth look at what’s moving markets, shaping the economy, and changing the game for your wallet and your business.

Also on Apple Podcasts, Spotify and YouTube:

Ghost Bites (Rainbow Chicken | Sappi | Sea Harvest | Vodacom)

Ghost Bites

The Finance Ghost

5 February 2026

Ghost Bites (Rainbow Chicken | Sappi | Sea Harvest | Vodacom)

Rainbow Chicken’s earnings have doubled (JSE: RBO)

There may not be a pot of gold at the end of this rainbow, but the chickens ain’t bad either

The poultry industry is a bit like going on a night out with your wildest friend. You’re either going to have an absolutely incredible time, or you’re going to lose your phone and end up sleeping under a tree as the precursor to a morning of serious regret.

In other words, if you’re the type who prefers a quiet night with a book, then chicken is best left for your plate rather than your portfolio.

For the six months to 28 December 2025, Rainbow Chicken achieved growth in HEPS of between 94.9% and 114.9%. As jols go, this is the one you look back fondly on when you turn 35 and realise that you’re probably too old for this now.

The reason for the volatility in earnings is that poultry businesses run at paper-thin margins. A relatively modest improvement further up the income statement has a significant impact on margins by the time you reach the bottom. Likewise, a seemingly minor deterioration in e.g. gross margin can have a nasty impact on profits.

When several things go well, you can see earnings double like this. In this case, Rainbow enjoyed a lovely cocktail of operational efficiencies, strong demand and lower feed costs thanks to improved commodity input prices.

Detailed results are due on 11 March. It’s a pity I’m not a shareholder, otherwise I could treat them as my birthday present that day!

Another loss-making quarter at Sappi (JSE: SAP)

At least Q1’26 was a bit better than Q4’25

Sappi released results for the quarter ended December 2025, the first quarter of the 2026 financial year. Although they reflect a smaller net loss than in the quarter ended September 2025 (a sequential view), adjusted EBITDA is actually lower. And if you apply a year-on-year view rather than sequential, it’s particularly ugly.

This isn’t a surprise to the market, with the share price down 60% over 12 months coming into this release. If anything, the market got a better set of numbers than expected here, based on the share price trading nearly 5% higher by lunchtime and closing 3.6% higher.

The announcement only provides the year-on-year comparison, so a sequential view requires you to dig out the September 2025 results. Revenue fell 6% year-on-year and 7.4% quarter-on-quarter. As for adjusted EBITDA, they were down by a nasty 56% year-on-year and 19% quarter-on-quarter.

Net debt spiked 39% year-on-year, but is only slightly higher sequentially.

The headline loss per share for the quarter was 6 US cents. That’s smaller than the headline loss per share of 19 US cents in Q4’25, so there’s some sequential improvement at least. But compared to positive HEPS of 12 US cents a year ago, it makes for unpleasant reading.

The trouble for Sappi investors is that there are numerous external factors that affect the results each quarter. For example, as we’ve seen in other industrial names, the stronger rand actually creates difficulties for profitability in the Southern African region, particularly when combined with lower international prices for products like dissolving wood pulp.

It’s a real pity that even a 10% increase in pulp segment volumes year-on-year wasn’t enough to offset the pricing declines. Volumes in packaging and speciality papers were also higher by 6%, yet lower prices impacted that business as well. Graphic papers suffered a 9% drop in sales volumes, but managed to keep margins above historical trends.

Then you get all the usual risks in a manufacturing business, like scheduled maintenance shuts and unplanned operational disruptions. This is what we’ve seen play out at the Somerset Mill in North America.

Sappi has been reducing costs in Europe and rationalising the business, but it wasn’t enough to offset these pressures.

There aren’t many highlights in here, but one thing that investors will like is that capex was $56 million in this quarter. That’s way down on $101 million a year ago. When Sappi released full year FY25 numbers, they committed to the market that capex would be below $300 million per annum for the next two years in an effort to repair the balance sheet. This is a promise that they seem to be keeping, with a revised target of $260 million for FY26.

The guidance for the second quarter is filled to the brim with forecasting risk, as Sappi operates in such a difficult environment with multiple factors at play. Overall, they expect adjusted EBITDA to be worse in the second quarter than in the first quarter. Ugh.

Cyclical stocks tend to offer the best buying opportunities when it appears as though nobody could possibly want the shares. That’s what a chart of this phenomenon looks like:

Your eyes are not deceiving you – Sappi is trading at COVID and Global Financial Crisis levels! Have we reached the bottom or will rand weakness drag it even lower? Thanks to a fun new element in Ghost Bites, you can vote in the poll below and we can do a proper sentiment check as a community:

Even more good news at Sea Harvest (JSE: SHG)

Both the seafood and dairy businesses had a strong year

Primary agriculture is a tough gig, especially when you involve the unpredictability of the ocean. Financial performance tends to reflect the volatility of Mother Nature herself: some years are glossy blue days with perfect skies, while others look like they could inspire disaster movies.

Thankfully, the 12 months to December 2025 was a financial year straight out of a tourism brochure. Sea Harvest released an initial trading statement in November that indicated a jump in HEPS from total operations of at least 200%. Fast forward to February and we have a further trading statement that is even better, with an expected increase of between 293% and 303%!

This means that group HEPS has approximately quadrupled from 55 cents to between 216 and 222 cents. You can almost imagine the coconut cocktails with a view of sunset over the ocean.

One of the nuances in the results is that Ladismith Cheese is being sold to Fairfield Dairy based on an enterprise value of R840 million. This deal was announced in November 2025 and makes sense in the context of the company’s push to reduce debt. This means that Ladismith Cheese is reflected as a discontinued operation.

If we therefore dig deeper into the numbers, we find that discontinued operations (i.e. Ladismith Cheese) achieved HEPS growth of 25% to 35%. The continuing operations were particularly crazy, up by between 434% and 444%! The oceans are a lot more unpredictable than fields of cows and cheese facilities.

Aside from the higher catch rates that make a significant positive difference to the numbers, Sea Harvest also locked in efficiency gains in the hake business. To add to the party, pricing improved significantly. This combination can only ever lead to higher earnings, especially in a business with high operating leverage (it costs the same to send out a fishing boat regardless of how much you catch and what the fish are worth).

It’s not all good news of course. There are some impairments that sit in Earnings Per Share (EPS). As a reminder, these impairments are excluded from Headline Earnings Per Share (HEPS).

The impairments relate to the Shark Bay prawn fishery in Australia, the mothballing of abalone farms based on depressed consumer demand in the East, and Cape Harvest Food in relation to the disposal of Ladismith Cheese where the assets exceed the selling price of the business.

The share price closed 4.9% higher on the day.

Egypt takes Vodacom to new heights (JSE: VOD)

The share price has continued where it left off in 2025

2025 was a year to remember for the telcos sector. With the dollar giving frontier markets a breather, Vodacom (and MTN (JSE: MTN)) took full advantage. Suddenly, those earnings in Africa actually meant something, as they weren’t being washed away by currency depreciation.

Africa became investable in 2025 thanks to a new era of US politics. It turns out that when the elephants are fighting, most of the grass has a surprising opportunity to grow.

Results for the quarter ended December 2025 reflect ongoing momentum in the business, especially in Egypt. Group revenue was up 11%, but the segmental view really tells the story. South African service revenue was up just 1.4%, while Egypt grew by 39%!

There’s been a lot of focus on local prepaid revenue recently, with a price war underway across the South African service providers. Vodacom doesn’t give an exact number, merely referring to “revenue under pressure” based on the consumer backdrop and promotional pricing. With contract revenue up 2.6% and data traffic up 32.3%, prepaid revenue must be a fairly nasty number to drag South African service revenue growth down to just 1.4%.

Financial services revenue is another important growth lever, up 24.7% at group level and 59.4% in Egypt.

Encouraged by the current macro environment and the opportunity in Africa, Vodacom announced in December that they would be acquiring an additional 20% stake in Safaricom. Kenya and Ethiopia are attractive markets, so I can see why Vodacom would want to have a controlling stake (55% after the acquisitions) in this business.

In South Africa, the major deal is of course the Maziv fibre transaction, which Vodacom had to fight incredibly hard for at the Competition Commission. Approval finally came in November and implementation began on 1 Deember 2025.

Vodacom and MTN look like heroes right now, but a different result in the US election would almost certainly have resulted in a very different conversation around African earnings. Policies can change quickly, so investors need to always remember that frontier markets are risky places.

With 27.5% of Vodacom group revenue now being generated in Egypt, they will ride this macro wave for as long as possible and be rewarded for it in the market. But if the dollar starts putting pressure on these currencies again, Vodacom will be highly exposed.

There isn’t much of an alternative though, as sitting back and defending market share in South Africa is a strategy that would attract a very low valuation. It’s also incredibly difficult to do acquisitions here, as evidenced by the Competition Commission’s approach to the Maziv deal.

It’s literally a case of nothing ventured, nothing gained. Africa is where the opportunity lies.

Nibbles:

Director dealings:
- A director of Stefanutti Stocks (JSE: SSK) bought shares worth R34.7k.
- The spouse of a director of Afine Investments (JSE: ANI) bought shares worth R7k. There’s very little liquidity in this thing, with average daily value traded of around R15k!

With Zeder (JSE: ZED) having announced the disposal of Zaad, the company has relooked at its management function and decided to restructure things in light of how much smaller the group is becoming. Johann le Roux will step down as CEO and FD with effect from 28 February 2026. He will be replaced by Dries Mellet as FD and acting CEO. Don’t feel too sorry for le Roux here: in a separate announcement, Zeder noted net cash settlement of options to le Roux worth around R5.2 million! That’s like a memorable goodbye kiss after a successful first date.

It’s now Investec’s (JSE: INL | JSE: INP) turn to welcome Standard Bank (JSE: SBK) to the share register, with a shareholding of 5.95%. I’m now even more convinced that these must be stakes held via Liberty within the Standard Bank group, or some other broad investment vehicle. You may recall that Nedbank (JSE: NED) recently announced a similar stake held by Standard Bank.

Ghost Bites (Datatec | Glencore | Harmony Gold | Hyprop | Impala Platinum | Mpact | The Foschini Group | RCL Foods | Southern Sun | Super Group | Zeder)

Ghost Bites

The Finance Ghost

4 February 2026

Ghost Bites (Datatec | Glencore | Harmony Gold | Hyprop | Impala Platinum | Mpact | The Foschini Group | RCL Foods | Southern Sun | Super Group | Zeder)

Another bolt-on deal for Datatec (JSE: DTC)

Cybersecurity is an attractive space for deals

Datatec continues to increase its international footprint through bolt-on acquisitions that add to the business without creating significant risk. This is a clever and effective way to grow, although it does take longer. This is the benefit of investing alongside a founder CEO, rather than a “manager” CEO trying to move the dial and maximise earnings during a term of only a few years.

The latest deal is an acquisition by Logicalis US of Maple Woods Enterprises, a long-term cybersecurity partner of Logicalis US. The Maple Woods Overwatch offering is built for the US defence industry, so it’s clearly robust.

Cybersecurity is a priority area for the group, so I expect to see more deals like this in future.

Glencore does a deal with Orion for its DRC assets – but no, it’s not that Orion (JSE: GLN)

Orion Critical Mineral Consortium is a US-based entity

Glencore announced that Orion Critical Mineral Consortium will look to acquire a 40% stake in Glencore’s interests in the DRC assets. The implied combined enterprise value of the assets is around $9 billion, so this is a large transaction.

Orion Critical Mineral Consortium is focused on securing critical minerals (as the name suggests) for the US and its partners. This consortium was only established in October 2025, so this is firmly a Trump-era initiative. In this case, the minerals in question are copper and cobalt.

Encouragingly for the DRC and the people near the mines, Glencore will look for opportunities to expand and develop these mines. They will also be open to additional critical mineral projects and assets in the DRC alongside their new partner. There’s certainly no shortage of capital in the US, so being able to tap into the world’s deepest capital pool is helpful.

Harmony Gold had a wobbly, but they believe they can still achieve guidance (JSE: HAR)

Here’s another reminder that the commodity price is only half the battle won

The other half, of course, is getting the stuff out of the ground. For the six months to December 2025, Harmony Gold had some challenges in doing that.

A mill motor failure and a deferment of the final gold shipment at Hidden Valley to January 2026 will impact the interim numbers, but should be fine on a full-year basis. Other issues included disappointing recovered grades and an industry-wide cyanide shortage in South Africa.

Despite this, the company hopes to meet full-year production guidance and achieve the planned all-in sustaining cost.

The CSA copper operation in Australia is being integrated into the group after the recent acquisition, while the Eva Copper Project has an appointed EPC contractor that is expected to be on site during the March 2026 quarter.

Hyprop confirms the retail trend that we can all see: a shift from December to Black Friday (JSE: HYP)

South Africans love a deal even more than they love decorated trees

Hyprop released an update for the six months to December. We’ve seen in retailer commentary that sales growth in November seems to be stronger than December. The words “record Black Friday” have come up at various retailers. Hyprop has confirmed this trend, noting a pull-forward of sales from December to November.

This is of course great news for online adoption, as I would wager that Black Friday sales have higher online penetration rates than Christmas shopping when people are on holiday. In an omnichannel environment where orders are fulfilled from stores, my understanding is that Hyprop and other landlords still get a slice of that action.

In the South African portfolio, tenant turnover increased 5.6% in November and only 4% in December, so the trend is clearly visible there. Foot count is even more interesting, up 3.6% in November and thus similar to October at 3.5%. But December was only up 0.8%, supporting my thesis that a shift from Christmas to Black Friday will simply pull a portion of foot count out of the system forever. People aren’t going to the shops as often as they used to.

For the six months, tenant turnover was up 5% and trading density improved by 7.5%. These are decent metrics, particularly in a lower inflation environment.

In Eastern Europe, online adoption is even more obvious. Foot count has declined in every single month in the period, down by 3% overall. Tenant turnover was up 3.8% and trading density climbed 3.6%.

I’m fascinated by the concept of grocery stores as anchor tenants and how things just aren’t what they used to be in terms of these stores attracting people to the malls. It feels like it’s only going to get worse, not better.

Impala Platinum’s profits go to the moon (JSE: IMP)

This is what happens when commodity prices increase sharply

Impala Platinum has released a trading statement for the six months to December 2025. As you might expect, the numbers are incredible.

HEPS is expected to increase by between 392% and 411%, coming in at between R10.15 and R10.54 per share. Although these are interim numbers, annualising is a dangerous game in this sector because things can change so quickly. The share price trading at around R304 shows you how much is baked into this story in the market.

377 jobs on the line at Mpact’s Springs Mill (JSE: MPT)

The rand doesn’t help, but neither do hostile policies in South Africa towards employees and businesses

A weak rand has historically propped up local industrial companies who have managed to compete locally and globally despite the substantial inefficiencies that come with manufacturing in South Africa. We really don’t make it easy down here, with issues ranging from labour laws through to energy availability and costs.

With the rand now strengthening (and the SARB absolutely obsessed with avoiding any rate cuts), our manufacturers are coming under pressure. It’s a two-pronged issue, with exports becoming less lucrative and imported alternatives becoming cheaper.

Mpact is one of the first public examples of this issue playing out, but there will be others.

Mpact’s Springs Mill is the only domestic producer of cartonboard, competing directly with imports that have found a home in South Africa in an environment of overcapacity in the global cartonboard market. The largest customers of the mill can import cartonboard at prices that are 20% lower than the cost of local production. You can guess where this is going.

When you consider that operating profit for the year ended December 2024 was just R32 million based on revenue of R1.74 billion, you can see that there was no room to absorb this pricing pressure.

With the largest remaining customer notifying Mpact that they will be importing going forwards and no longer procuring from Springs Mill, the show is over for that facility. Production will run until the end of March, at which point 377 people are likely to lose their jobs.

Of course, in a vibrant economy, there should be 377 new jobs waiting for these people at companies that can flourish in a stronger rand environment. Alas, this isn’t a vibrant economy.

Hold on to your seats: the TFG bloodbath isn’t over (JSE: TFG)

The Foschini Group’s offshore results are going from bad to worse

The Foschini Group (TFG) is having a really tough time at the moment. It looks even worse in the context of 2025’s Capital Markets Day. Analysts felt that the targets shared that day were spicy to say the least, but I don’t think anyone expected this level of underperformance. I’m becoming concerned that TFG and Pick n Pay (JSE: PIK) might be in the same WhatsApp group.

TFG has released a trading update for the quarter and nine months ended 27 December 2025. There’s a lot of detail to unpack, but the overall theme is that TFG Africa is losing ground and the offshore businesses barely know where the ground is anymore.

Group sales increased 2.9% for the quarter, which is much lower than the 7.5% year-to-date growth. One of the reasons is that TFG Africa grew 3.5% for the quarter vs. 4.2% year-to-date, a noticeable slowdown. Another big reason is that White Stuff, part of TFG London, was acquired in October 2024 and was thus in the base for Q3. This is why TFG London was only up 6.5% for the quarter vs. 37.2% year-to-date where Q1 and Q2 weren’t comparable to the previous years.

It’s easy to grow by acquiring revenue, so that year-to-date number isn’t reflective of performance. Here’s the number that does show you the performance: if you strip out White Stuff, TFG London’s sales fell 2.4% in the third quarter and 2.6% over nine months. Yuck!

That’s still better than retail widowmaker Australia, down 2.6% for the quarter and 1.9% for the nine months.

And if you exclude White Stuff from the group numbers, then sales growth over nine months is only 2% instead of 7.5%. You get the idea.

The clear highlight is online sales. At group level, they increased 23.4% in the third quarter and 36.6% year-to-date, now contributing 14.3% to total retail sales. In TFG Africa, Bash did what it says on the tin and dished out pain to the competition, growing online sales 54.9% in the third quarter and 46.7% year-to-date. Online sales are now 7.9% of total sales in TFG Africa.

I’ll say the same thing that I said in the Pepkor (JSE: PPH) update this week: Mr Price (JSE: MRP) is asleep at the wheel in online sales and needs to stop throwing away market share by barely participating.

We may as well deal with TFG Africa, where like-for-like sales were up 1.2% in the third quarter and 2.9% year-to-date. I cannot for the life of me understand how Cellular sales can be down 2.5%, as that has been a very strong performer at major competitors. I guess for others to be winning, someone had to be losing! At least Beauty is a real highlight, up by 20.3% in the third quarter.

A meaty 26.1% of TFG Africa’s sales are on credit. The debtors book is 6.8% higher year-on-year, a surprising increase in the context of the credit sales performance of 5.3% year-to-date. They call it a steady risk environment, but that doesn’t seem particularly steady to me. Hopefully we won’t see credit challenges coming through as well, as TFG has more than enough to deal with already!

TFG London and TFG Australia continue to be huge headaches, with the group now expecting impairments of up to R750 million. This doesn’t impact HEPS, but it does indicate the extent of value destruction in those offshore businesses in recent times. This is just one of the many cautionary tales that Mr Price has opted to ignore in pursuit of NKD in Europe.

Before you feel that HEPS is safe, I must point out that TFG London’s gross margin has contracted by 90 basis points year-to-date based on inventory clearance. When you combine this with the pressures across the board, I suspect that investors are in for another rough ride in terms of HEPS. The company hasn’t given a range for HEPS in this update.

In terms of outlook and recent trading, TFG Africa’s sales grew 5.8% for the 5 weeks to 31 January 2026. TFG London increased 5.6% in local currency, which is an encouraging outcome. TFG Australia remains a mess, down 1.1% in local currency.

The share price is down 39% over 12 months. I personally don’t think we are anywhere near the bottom yet, but we will see how the market reacts to this update that came out at the close of play on Tuesday.

A bitter outcome for HEPS at RCL Foods (JSE: RCL)

The sugar is to blame

RCL Foods released a trading statement dealing with the six months to December 2025. I’m afraid that it isn’t good news, with HEPS expected to be at least 25% lower year-on-year.

The move is much bigger in earnings per share (EPS), but that’s because of numerous adjustments related to non-cash gains and insurance proceeds. This is exactly why the market focuses on HEPS instead, as it gives us a standardised metric that strips away as many of these distortions as possible.

So, what happened in HEPS? The answer lies in the sugar business.

A once-off partial recovery of the sugar industry levy in the base period is responsible for 5.6 cents of the “at least” 27.4 cents drop in HEPS. Kudos to the company for giving helpful and detailed disclosure here!

The remaining 21.8 cents is thanks to the performance in the sugar business itself, with the challenge being an influx of imports that led to local production being sold in the less lucrative export market.

This tells us that sugar is more expensive locally than it would be without tariffs. The importance of the growers and millers in the South African industry leads to government being willing to protect them, with RCL pushing for amendments to the tariffs to do something about these deep sea imports that have hurt the local industry.

Thankfully, the Groceries and Baking units are achieving higher profits despite pressure on volumes. It’s just not enough to offset the pain in Sugar as the largest individual segment from an EBITDA perspective.

Well, Sugar probably isn’t the largest segment anymore, as Baking has been hot on its heels and this update suggests that there might be a new pecking order within RCL.

Southern Sun will take a 50% stake in key properties in Sandton (JSE: SPG)

Liberty will be selling to Southern Sun and Pareto

Southern Sun currently operates the Sandton Sun, Sandton Towers, Garden Court Sandton City and Sandton Convention Centre under long-term contracts with Liberty and Pareto. Those two companies have stakes of 75% and 25% in the properties respectively.

Liberty is a wholly owned subsidiary of Standard Bank (JSE: SBK) and Pareto is owned by the Government Employee’s Pension Fund, managed by the PIC.

Liberty is going to sell its stake in Sandton Towers, Garden Court Sandton City, Sandton Convention Centre and the Virgin Active Sandton (but note: not Sandton Sun). Pareto will increase its stake from 25% to 50%, while Southern Sun will take the other 50%.

Strategically, this makes sense for Southern Sun. They own the majority of their hotel portfolio, giving them far more control than if they were purely an operator on behalf of others. Being able to take a 50% stake in these properties creates more strategic alignment with the rest of the portfolio.

Southern Sun’s 50% stake will cost them R735 million, payable from available debt facilities. This is in line with the independent valuation that was done as at December 2024.

This seems like a strong deal for Southern Sun, with the share price closing 4.3% higher in appreciation.

Super Group’s continuing operations live up to the name (JSE: SPG)

The same can’t be said for the automotive business in the UK

Super Group has released a trading statement for the six months to December 2025. HEPS is expected to be between 23.6% and 31.8% higher, which means a range of between 150 cents and 160 cents. To add to that good news, the balance sheet is in good shape and net debt ratios are healthy.

Great, but what about the discontinued operations?

If you include those operations and therefore look at the group total, then HEPS is between 134 cents and 145 cents. The year-on-year move is less relevant, as the disposal of SG Fleet in the prior year impacts comparability. The part that is relevant is that the UK automotive segment is in trouble.

The Hyundai and Suzuki dealerships in the UK have been closed. The UK KIA dealerships remain in discontinued operations. The automotive logistics segment has deteriorated thanks to a cyberattack on Jaguar Land Rover that led to a two-month shut down of production. If there are no cars being produced, there’s nothing to move around in the logistics business. This drove a trading loss in AMCO of R25.5 million for the six months. Overall, the UK is an unhappy place in the automotive space right now.

Super Group clearly believes in the mantra of your first loss being your best loss. They’ve decided to exit AMCO and they are looking for a buyer. This is why the business has landed in discontinued operations in this update. But with no guarantee of a buyer emerging quickly (or at a reasonable price), I don’t think it would be right to focus only on the continuing operations in this update.

The release of results on 24 February will have full details for investors.

Zeder finally has a buyer for Zaad (JSE: ZED)

The share price closed 18% higher on the day

Zeder has been a value unlock play for as long as anyone can remember. They’ve been selling off smaller assets in the group, but Zaad has always been the big fish that needed to find the right line to be hooked onto.

That line has come in the form of a consortium of WIPHOLD, the PIC, the IDC and Phatisa Food. This gives enough balance sheet muscle for Zeder and the minorities in Zaad to be able to sell their shares and claims for up to R1.42 billion. Zeder will receive R1.39 billion of that amount.

In case you aren’t familiar with the business, Zaad operates in the agri-inputs industry with a focus on emerging markets in Africa, the Middle East and Eastern Europe.

Nothing is ever quite this simple. As a precursor to this deal, excluded assets worth R801 million need to be sold separately or restructured out of Zaad Holdings. This means that Zeder will continue to own May Seed and various other assets. The assets other than May Seed are in the process of being disposed of.

Zeder intends to distribute a “significant portion” of the deal value to shareholders. They will give further information in the circular when it is released to shareholders (around 23 March 2026), as this is a Category 1 transaction.

The value of the shares and claims in the latest financials was R2 billion, but this included May Seed and the other “excluded assets” and isn’t directly comparable. This implies that they’ve sold roughly R1.2 billion worth of assets for R1.42 billion. Importantly, the share price was trading at a discount to the valuation anyway, so this price is significantly higher than the market cap was implying.

That’s how a value unlock is supposed to work!

Nibbles:

Director dealings:
- Saul Saltzman, son of the founders of Dis-Chem (JSE: DCP), sold shares in the company worth R12.7 million.
- A prescribed officer of Life Healthcare (JSE: LHC) sold shares worth R9 million.
- A director of a subsidiary of RFG Holdings (JSE: RFG) bought shares worth R119k.
- A director of a major subsidiary of Insimbi Holdings (JSE: ISB) sold shares worth R71.5k.

Bowler Metcalf (JSE: BCF) has a market cap of just over R1 billion, making it a small cap on the JSE and thus a company with limited liquidity in the stock. Recent results seem to be solid though, with revenue up 8% for the six months to December and HEPS up by 16%. The cash has followed suit, with the interim dividend up 16%. Nice!

Tharisa (JSE: THA) is looking for a new CFO after the resignation of Michael Jones with effect from 31 July 2026. That’s a solid handover period that reflects an innings of 14 years as CFO. It will be interesting to see whether they have an internal replacement lined up vs. bringing in external ideas.

Stefanutti Stocks (JSE: SSK) has made another repayment of R50 million to Standard Bank. The outstanding facility has been reduced from R300 million to R250 million.

Sirius Real Estate (JSE: SRE) announced the results of the dividend reinvestment programme. Holders of 0.46% of issued shares in the UK and 3.0% of issued shares in South Africa opted to receive shares instead of cash. But here’s the nuance: settlement is through the purchase of shares in the market rather than the issuance of new shares. This is therefore non-dilutive to other shareholders.

Between 26 November 2025 and 22 January 2026, Argent Industrial (JSE: ART) repurchased R11.4 million worth of shares at an average price of R33.34. The current price is R32.50. This only represents 0.63% of shares in issue and they have the authority to do far more.

MTN Zakhele Futhi (JSE: MTNZF) shareholders will receive an “agterskot” payment thanks to the costs of unwinding the scheme being less than anticipated. The final payment is 23 cents per share, of which 8 cents is the agterskot and 15 cents is the scheme consideration.

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