Live TV is always fun. I get a particular kick from seeing a purple ghost alongside one of the most recognised brands in finance media: CNBC.
In this interview that took place on 13th January with CNBC Africa, I spoke through the pockets of performance on the JSE in the past 12 months and some of the areas that were left behind.
Investing is always forward-looking, so it really comes down to one big question: can the JSE’s momentum in 2025 filter down into JSE mid-caps? And what should investors look out for?
I had a lot of fun doing this interview and I hope you’ll enjoy it too:
The world’s richest people aren’t always building apps or chasing disruption. Here are three stories that reveal how unglamorous industries keep minting billionaires.
If you had to guess where the majority of today’s billionaires are being made, you’d probably point to Silicon Valley, Shenzhen, or some airless room full of servers humming away on renewable energy. We’ve gotten very used to the idea that tech founders dominate the rich lists these days, usually accompanied by language about disruption, scale, and changing the world via algorithm.
But there’s another kind of billionaire building wealth far from the spotlight. These fortunes are being made in industries that are often described (perhaps a little dismissively) as “boring”. These aren’t the kinds of businesses that trend on X, yet they seem to print cash with a reliability that most tech startups would kill for. And, in many cases, they’ve been doing so for decades.
The common thread isn’t glamour or innovation in the Silicon Valley sense. It’s patience. Infrastructure. Control. And a deep understanding of problems that most people don’t find interesting enough to try and solve.
Advertising that throws its wait around
Jean-Claude Decaux was the son of a shoe salesman, which feels like the sort of detail biographers include when they’re hinting at a rags-to-riches origin story. In Decaux’s case, it mattered. At 18, he got into an argument with his father about how the family shoe store’s window display should look. Instead of backing down, he started his own business making roadside billboards.
That first venture didn’t last. In 1963, French legislation clamped down on billboard advertising, effectively killing the business overnight. Many people would have taken the loss as a sign to try something else. Decaux treated it as a design problem. If you couldn’t put advertising on roads, where could you put it?
His answer arrived in 1964. Decaux approached the city of Lyon with a proposal that now seems obvious, but at the time was quietly radical: he would build and maintain bus shelters at his own cost. In return, he’d be allowed to sell advertising space on them. And so, JCDecaux was born.
If you’re finding it hard to believe that bus shelters were only invented in the 1960s (yes, before that people really just stood outside in the elements, waiting for their bus), it just shows how well Decaux’s invention cemented itself into our daily lives. Decaux’s idea was a win-win: the city got clean, well-lit shelters without spending taxpayer money, advertisers got captive audiences, and Decaux got a business model that was hard to copy and even harder to dislodge.
This was the invention of “street furniture” advertising: bus shelters, kiosks, public toilets, an approach that later expanded into airports and transit hubs. It wasn’t flashy, but it was embedded. Once a city signed a long-term contract, JCDecaux became part of the urban fabric.
By the time Jean-Claude Decaux died in 2016, his net worth was estimated at around $7 billion. JCDecaux had grown into the largest outdoor advertising company in the world, with ads on roughly 140,000 bus stops and 145 airports. In 2023, the company reported revenue of €3.57 billion and net income of just over €209 million.
The business is still majority-owned by the Decaux family. Two of Jean-Claude’s sons, Jean-François and Jean-Charles, alternate annually as CEOs. We have to wonder whether son number three (presumably also a Jean-something) followed in his father’s footsteps and got into a fight with his old man before he could take over the family business!
The world’s richest farmer
If outdoor advertising sounds a bit dull, pig farming sounds even less promising as a route to billionaire status. And yet Qin Yinglin, chairman and president of Muyuan Foodstuff, is the richest farmer on Earth.
Qin was born in 1965 in the rural Henan province and grew up poor. When he was in high school, his father scraped together enough money to buy 20 pigs. All but one died. For most families, that would have been the end of the experiment. For Qin, it became the beginning of an obsession.
He decided to study pig farming properly, enrolling at Henan Agricultural University to study animal husbandry. After graduating, he took a stable job at a state-owned food company, an “iron rice bowl” position that promised security for life. Despite the promise of stability, he quit after three years. In 1992, Qin and his wife, Qian Ying, who had trained as a veterinarian, moved back to his hometown and started raising pigs themselves. They began with 22. Within two years, they had 2,000. By 1997, that number had grown to 10,000.
In 2000, Qin founded what would become Muyuan Foodstuff. Unlike many competitors, Muyuan invested heavily in owning and controlling its own facilities. That decision would prove decisive in the long run. When African swine fever tore through China’s pork industry in 2019, killing millions of pigs and driving prices through the roof, weaker operators collapsed. Muyuan survived (and thrived) because it controlled its breeding, feeding, and processing environments more tightly than most.
Qin was blunt about the situation. The epidemic, he said, brought “both benefit and harm”. It would wipe out small players, but it would also create opportunities for stronger enterprises to grow. Muyuan increased automation, expanded capacity, and consolidated its position. By 2023, the company was slaughtering around 65 million pigs a year. Qin’s net worth goes up and down with the pork price, but is currently sitting at a tidy $21.9 billion.
There’s nothing romantic about industrial pig farming. But pork is China’s most consumed meat, which means that demand is both enormous and predictable. Qin didn’t need to invent a new appetite. He just needed to build the infrastructure to serve an existing one better than anyone else.
A fortune in the footwell
David MacNeil’s moment of inspiration came not in a lab or a boardroom, but in the footwell of a rental car in Scotland. In 1989, MacNeil noticed that the thick rubber floor mats in his rental car were far superior to anything available in the United States. They had raised lips to trap water and debris. They were practical. They just worked.
Unable to shake the idea, MacNeil tracked down the English manufacturer of the floor mat that impressed him so much and imported a container of them to the US, financing the deal by taking out a second mortgage on his house. He started selling them from his home in Clarendon Hills, Illinois, answering customer calls himself, sometimes at three in the morning.
It wasn’t flashy, but this is how WeatherTech was born.
At first, MacNeil imported products. But soon he became convinced that he could make better ones himself, and that they should be manufactured in the US. In 2007, he moved production entirely to America, opening facilities around Chicago and building a tightly controlled manufacturing operation.
Today, WeatherTech is a privately held company, 100% owned by MacNeil. It produces not just floor mats, but cargo liners, window deflectors, car covers, and a wide range of automotive accessories. Nearly all of its products are made in the US. Much of its plastic waste is recycled on-site. The company employs around 1,800 people.
MacNeil himself is worth around $2 billion. He’s perhaps best known in popular culture for paying $70 million for a Ferrari 250 GTO in 2018, setting a record for the most expensive car ever sold. It’s a suitably extravagant footnote to a fortune built on something most people never think about until it’s muddy.
Why boring works
These stories don’t follow the familiar tech arc. There are no unicorn valuations, no fevered rush to scale, no dramatic exits timed to the quarter.
What they share instead is a devotion to the ordinary. Shelter. Food. Cleanliness. The unchanging backdrops of daily life. The things we only notice when they fail. Each of these three founders understood that real power lies in what people rely on without thinking. So they built businesses that were not just successful, but inevitable – hard to copy, harder to remove.
We’re told that innovation means moving fast and breaking things. But there’s another kind that moves slowly and fixes them. That embeds itself so deeply into everyday life that it becomes invisible.
And invisibility, it turns out, is a very good place to hide a billion-dollar business.
About the author: Dominique Olivier
Dominique Olivier is the founder of human.writer, where she uses her love of storytelling and ideation to help brands solve problems.
She is a weekly columnist in Ghost Mail and collaborates with The Finance Ghost on Ghost Mail Weekender, a Sunday publication designed to help you be more interesting.She now also writes a regular column for Daily Maverick.
So big that a $3 billion deal gets a SENS announcement with four paragraphs!
AB InBev announced that they are exercising their right to reacquire a minority stake in the US-based metal container plants. The sellers are a consortium of investors led and/or advised by Apollo Global Management. AB InBev will reacquire a 49% stake and will pay a casual $3 billion for the privilege.
This is bigger than the market cap of many companies on the JSE, yet the deal gets just a four-paragraph SENS announcement! This is because the company’s market cap is nearly R1.9 trillion. Deal sizes are all relative.
The metal container plant operations span six states in the US and are clearly strategically important. 49% doesn’t give AB InBev control of the facilities obviously, but does give them significant influence.
They expect this deal to be EPS accretive in year 1, so it looks like a capital allocation decision above all else. If you’ve got the opportunity to deploy capital into assets that you are already familiar with at an attractive price, then why not?
Jubilee Metals has received the next $10 million for the SA PGM sale (JSE: JBL)
Thebigger question is: will we see a takeover bid in 2026?
Jubilee Metals has come up quite a bit in the past few days as a stock pick by Ghost Mail readers. I’m not surprised at all to be honest. There’s much focus on copper among the biggest names in the mining sector, so it seems highly plausible that we could see an acquirer swoop in and try take all the assets now that Jubilee is a copper pure play.
For those whose hearts were broken by Jubilee’s decision to sell the PGM assets just before those prices really took off, there would at least be something to smile about if an offer comes in. It’s not easy when Jubilee’s price is flat over the past year and other PGM names have climbed on a rocket to the moon.
The latest from the company is that the second tranche of $10 million in cash from One Chrome (for the disposal of the SA PGM assets) has now been received. There are still substantial payments to be received in years to come, as the total price is up to $90 million (some of which is conditional) and they’ve received $25 million thus far.
HCI’s property disposals continue (JSE: HCI)
Whale Village Mall in Hermanus is the latest example
The penny has certainly dropped at Hosken Consolidated Investments (JSE: HCI): investors are taking operational risk on the company and thus would prefer it to not be sitting on properties that offer hybrid returns (somewhere between debt and equity). It just muddies the water and there are plenty of property funds on the JSE that allow investors to get that exposure elsewhere.
The latest example of HCI offloading property is Whale Coast Village in Hermanus. HCI holds 80% in an entity that has a 65% stake in the property. The 65% stake is being sold for R600 million.
The proceeds will first be used to settle taxes and debt worth R328 million. The remaining R272 million will be distributed to the shareholders, so HCI’s 80% should be worth just under R218 million.
There are various conditions to be met before the cash can flow.
A perfectly flat quarter for the Schroder European Real Estate Investment Trust (JSE: SCD)
Of course, there’s volatility as you go further down
There were many ways to make money in property last year. The Schroder European Real Estate Investment Trust certainly wasn’t one of them. Down 9% over 12 months and in the red even on a total return basis (i.e. with the distribution included), it’s a sad and sorry tale during a period in which the broader sector did really well.
They’ve got a bunch of problems to deal with, ranging from a tax dispute in France through to the need to replace a very large tenant at a mixed-use data centre in Apeldoorn.
In the three months to December, the overall valuation of the portfolio was perfectly flat. It was valued at €194 million at both September 2025 and December 2025. This means that there were some positive underlying stories (like the Berlin DIY asset) to offset the ongoing decline in the value of the Apeldoorn property as that lease draws closer to the end of its term.
My view is unchanged: why on earth would I pick this fund when there are so many easier and better options on the JSE?
Nibbles:
Director dealings:
The CEO of Spear REIT (JSE: SEA) bought shares worth just over R50k for his family.
A director of Stefanutti Stocks (JSE: SSK) bought shares worth nearly R28k.
The son of the chair of Weaver Fintech (JSE: WVR) has clearly started dabbling in shares, with a purchase worth R1.4k and a sale a few days later for a small profit. Rather hold them kiddo; it worked well for me last year!
ASP Isotopes (JSE: ISO) has now closed the acquisition of Renergen (JSE: REN) a deal that absolutely saved the aspiring helium producer. Given the importance of funding lines from the US, I think it will also help tremendously to be part of the ASP Isotopes stable based on their strong relationships on that side of the pond. And in case you’re wondering, Stefano Marani (ex-CEO of Renergen) has a new title: President, Electronics and Space! Nobody has business cards anymore, but that would be quite a card.
The delisting of Astoria (JSE: ARA) has been finalised based on offer acceptances of 36.42% having been received. The listing was terminated on 6 January. This led to various associates of directors of Goldrush (JSE: GRSP) receiving more shares in Goldrush on a pro rata basis as there was an unbundling of Goldrush shares by Astoria as part of the deal structure. I wouldn’t see this as a traditional director dealing, hence I haven’t included it in that section.
Deneb (JSE: DNB) has achieved all the conditions precedent for the acquisition of Dawning Filters, a deal that was announced in October 2025. The closing date will be 13 January 2026. It’s nice when these things close quickly!
4Sight Holdings (JSE: 4SI) – a rather interesting dark horse among the JSE small caps – has agreed to repurchase R10 million worth of shares from a material shareholder (and related party) at 55 cents per share. The current share price is 75 cents, so that’s a sweet deal unless you believe that the current price is overcooked. The board thinks that the current price is undervalued, so 55 cents is truly a bargain. For context as to the size of this repurchase, the market cap of 4SI is R413 million. Despite this, the related party nature of the deal means that shareholder approval will be required (a special resolution, nogal – 75% approval!) and a circular will need to go to shareholders.
Efora Energy (JSE: EEL) has renewed the bland cautionary relating to negotiations that could have a material impact on the shares. It’s suspended from trading anyway, but theoretically there could be off-market trades and hence the cautionary is needed. A suspended share still has to meet its continuing obligations as a listed company.
Institutional investors face a new era of complexity and opportunity. As retirement and pension funds seek to balance long-term growth, liquidity, and responsible investing, Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) have emerged as a transformative solution, for public markets and also as a strategic bridge to private market exposure.
The Private Market Challenge
Private markets, namely private equity, private debt and infrastructure, offer attractive illiquidity premiums and diversification. Yet, for many South African pension funds, direct access remains limited. Regulatory allowances (such as Regulation 28’s 15% cap on private equity and 45% cap on infrastructure) are underutilised, largely due to operational complexity and liquidity constraints in defined contribution (DC) funds.
Global Trends, Local Relevance
Across the globe, leading asset managers are pioneering hybrid solutions that blend liquid public instruments with illiquid private assets. This approach delivers diversification, liquidity, and long-term value to retirement investors. Locally, the 2025 Sanlam Benchmark™ Survey highlights a strong appetite for ESG integration and investments that create positive change. South African funds are prioritising job creation, education, renewable energy, and health, with many seeking Regulation 28-compliant strategies.
ETFs: The Strategic Enabler
ETFs play a vital role in overcoming these barriers. Here’s how:
Liquidity Management Private market investments are inherently illiquid, making it difficult for funds to manage inflows, outflows, and sudden market shifts. ETFs provide a liquidity sleeve, an allocation that can be quickly adjusted, sold, or rebalanced, allowing funds to maintain flexibility without sacrificing exposure to long-term private assets.
Transition Management Moving assets into private markets often involves extended capital calls and interim cash holdings, which can drag on performance. ETFs allow funds to replicate their strategic asset allocation, preserve liquidity, and minimise cash drag during transitions. They can also serve as liquid proxies for private market exposures, keeping portfolios aligned with long-term objectives while capital is being deployed.
Cost Efficiency and Transparency ETFs typically offer lower management fees and daily disclosure of holdings, supporting governance and oversight. This transparency is crucial for trustees and principal officers tasked with fiduciary responsibility.
Regulatory Support and Market Innovation
South African pension funds have historically lagged in private market allocations, missing out on illiquidity premiums and unique growth opportunities. As institutional ETF usage grows, so does market liquidity and efficiency, supporting greater uptake of private market allocations.
The Future: Convergence and Customisation
The border between traditional and alternative asset management is dissolving. Clients are driving the convergence, seeking integrated solutions that blend public and private exposures. Product innovation is accelerating, with public–private strategies and evergreen products proliferating. ETFs are becoming essential components of institutional portfolios, well-positioned to shape future investment strategies as regulatory frameworks and investor demands evolve.
Conclusion
ETFs are no longer just passive vehicles; they are strategic instruments for institutional investors seeking flexibility, efficiency, and innovation. As trustees, principal officers, and investment consultants look to build resilient, future-ready portfolios, ETFs offer a compelling solution for navigating today’s challenges and tomorrow’s opportunities.
Satrix consists of the following authorised Financial Services Providers: Satrix Managers (RF) (Pty) Ltd and Satrix Investments (Pty) Ltd. The information does not constitute financial advice. While every effort has been made to ensure the reasonableness and accuracy of the information contained in this document (“the information”), the FSPs, their shareholders, subsidiaries, clients, agents, officers and employees do not make any representations or warranties regarding the accuracy or suitability of the information and shall not be held responsible and disclaim all liability for any loss, liability and damage whatsoever suffered as a result of or which may be attributable, directly or indirectly, to any use of or reliance upon the information.
AfroCentric sells Activo for up to R600 million (JSE: ACT)
The up-front amount is R350 million
On Christmas Eve, AfroCentric announced the disposal of generic medicine manufacturer and distributor Activo to Portuguese pharmaceutical group FHC. This is a show of faith in South Africa by FHC, a company that operates in 65 countries on 4 continents.
AfroCentric wants to focus on health administration, managed care and corporate solutions – a very different business model to drug manufacturing and distribution. This is therefore a sensible disposal of a non-core asset and a significant boost to AfroCentric’s balance sheet.
Speaking of the numbers, Activo’s consolidated net assets were valued at R299 million as at 30 June 2025 and profit for the six months to June was R9 million. But if you add on AfroCentric’s goodwill and sale claims, the value on the balance sheet is actually R1.1 billion.
This is important, as the maximum value of this sale is R600 million. There is a R350 million up-front payment and a R250 million earnout structure that kicks in after three years.
This puts them on the wrong side of the balance sheet value, but one has to wonder how the goodwill wasn’t already impaired when you consider the profitability of this business (just R18 million profit on an annualised basis vs. a balance sheet value of R1.1 billion…?)
This is a Category 1 disposal, so shareholders will need to vote on it.
The share price barely moved over the Christmas period, but this is a fairly illiquid stock with limited coverage. Expecting fireworks in a small cap when almost everyone is on holiday is unreasonable. With a market cap of R1.1 billion though, this deal is a large and important value unlock.
Aspen delivered a festive gift and is up 20% (JSE: APN)
The market likes the proposed sale of the APAC business
There’s inevitably at least one major thing that happens in the quiet time on the JSE between Christmas and the new year. Aspen certainly stuck their hand up in that regard, with an announcement on the 29th of December regarding the proposed disposal of Aspen APAC (Australia, New Zealand and Asia Pacific) excluding China.
The buyer is an Australian private equity investor. The price on the table is a delightful R26.5 billion on a cash-free debt-free basis (typical of how private equity deals are structured). This works out to a normalised EV/EBITDA multiple of 11x. Based on the depressed Aspen share price after a horrible year in 2025, this was good enough to drive a mega rally in the share price (it closed 23.7% higher on the day and has settled down at a level 20% higher than pre-Christmas).
The book value of the net assets being sold as at 30 November 2025 was R22.3 billion. The selling price is therefore above book value (not that this is the most important consideration by any means).
This disposal is a big decision to make, as this part of Aspen contributed 18% of revenue and 26% of EBITDA for the year ended June 2025. But at the right price, anything is for sale.
This deal obviously creates immense flexibility for Aspen going forwards. They can reduce debt and focus on major strategic opportunities like China, Mounjaro in South Africa and other GLP-1 products in Canada and other markets. It also gives them a better chance of fixing the broken Manufacturing business that obliterated the share price in 2025.
This is a Category 1 transaction, so shareholders will be asked for their opinion on the deal in the form of a shareholder vote. The response by the share price makes it pretty clear that the market loves the deal, so I can’t see why the vote would be a problem. A circular will be released in due course.
3,000 very expensive shares for Novus – the TRP is forcing the offer price for Mustek higher (JSE: NVS | JSE: MST)
Novus plans to fight this decision
In November 2024, Novus announced a mandatory offer for Mustek of R13 per share. This was triggered in the way that all such offers are triggered: Novus breaching the 35% ownership threshold. Now, these deals are normally not contentious things, but this one had a twist.
Complaints were laid with the Takeover Regulation Panel (TRP) that Numus (a broker and hedge fund manager) was acting in concert with Novus. This matters not just because of who the defined offerors would be, but also because of how the trades by concert parties can affect the mandatory offer price.
After an investigation lasting several months, the TRP has concluded that Numus is indeed a concert party of Novus. The evidence used to reach this decision includes a brokerage mandate, shared premises (at least on an informal basis), “anticipatory positioning” (the hedge fund acquired shares 44 days before any documented instruction from Novus) and a shift in pricing strategy on the market. Another important nuance is that communication between the parties and internal board documents described CFD positions as “shares” and “shareholding” and even “23% of the equity”. Using CFD positions to avoid disclosure is the kind of thing that makes the TRP very upset.
The TRP also notes that there was no evidence of Chinese wall procedures or other controls in place. I imagine that financial compliance professionals in South Africa will take careful note of the full decision.
What does this all mean? Well, thanks to the purchase of just 3,000 shares by the hedge fund in November 2024 at R15.41 instead of the R13.00 mandatory offer price, the entire offer now jumps to R15.41. That makes the deal 18.54% more expensive for Novus. It even applies retrospectively to those who already accepted the R13.00 offer!
As the concert parties hold 60.25% of the shares in Mustek, there are plenty of Mustek shareholders who can accept the higher offer. For reference, the current share price is R14.77, so the incentive is there to accept it at the increased price.
If you look in the original circular based on the R13.00 offer price, the bank guarantee required for the offer was R334 million excluding the phantom shares. Without any adjustment for the number of shares being acquired, the guarantee would be over R395 million under the new offer price!
Yes, that’s a difference of up to R61 million based on a share purchase of R46k at a higher price. You won’t see that every day. Needless to say, Novus plans to apply to the Takeover Special Committee for a hearing to try and reverse this pain.
You might have regretted a few share purchases in your life, but I think these 3,000 shares take the cake.
Nibbles:
Director dealings:
The CFO of ASP Isotopes (JSE: ISO) sold shares worth around R7.7 million.
An associate of a director of Optasia (JSE: OPA) bought shares worth R4.2 million.
The CEO of Exxaro (JSE: EXX) bought shares in the company worth R2.2 million.
A director of a major subsidiary of AfroCentric (JSE: ACT) sold shares worth R172k.
An associate of a director of Spear REIT (JSE: SEA) bought shares worth R76k across two separate trades.
Jubilee Metals (JSE: JBL) has closed the disposal of the South African chrome and PGM operations. The second cash instalment on the sale ($10 million) is expected to be received shortly. This leaves Jubilee as a purely copper-focused business in Zambia. It also makes it a juicy acquisition target, surely?
Orion Minerals (JSE: ORE) updated the market on the progress being made to finalise the all-important funding and offtake deal with Glencore (JSE: GLN). The agreements weren’t finalised before the Christmas break, so Orion is looking to update the market early in January.
Supermarket Income REIT (JSE: SRI) continues to do precisely what it says on the tin, with the UK-based property group acquiring three supermarkets in the UK for £97.6 million. The average net initial yield is 5.5%. This includes a Tesco site in Aylesbury, a Sainsbury’s in Sale and a Waitrose in Frimley. The unexpired lease terms vary from 11 years to 16 years and there’s a strong focus on the omnichannel features of the property (space for home delivery vans, click & collect). The deals are funded from existing debt and the pro forma loan-to-value is expected to be 43%. This is part of a busy period for the fund, with a goal of recycling £400 million in capital this year.
Here’s a very sad update (especially over the festive season) and a reminder that mining is dangerous: Alphamin (JSE: APH) announced a fatal injury to an employee at the Mpama South mine in relation to an unexpected detonation during the connection of blasting wires. Mining activities were temporarily suspended for a thorough investigation, as one would expect.
Visual International (JSE: VIS) previously announced in September that Serowe Industries was looking at subscribing for a minority equity interest in the company. The due diligence investigation is ongoing and the period of exclusivity granted to Serowe has been extended until the end of February. Exclusivity periods are not uncommon in these types of transactions. And no, their website still doesn’t work.
Another day, another delay to the funding required for Shuka Minerals (JSE: SKA) to complete the acquisition of Leopard Exploration and Mining and thus the Kabwe Zinc Mine. Once again, Gathoni Muchai Investments has failed to provide the money to Shuka in time. The latest “promise” is for the cash to be available in the week commencing 5 January. The long stop date for the deal has thus been extended to 15 January.
Oceana (JSE: OCE) announced that Bakar Jakoet (ex-CFO of Pick n Pay) has been appointed as lead independent director of the company.
In its quarterly update as a suspended company, Sail Mining (JSE: SGP) reminded the market that they are in the process of making a conditional offer to repurchase all the shares in the company. This would naturally come with a delisting as well. The company has been suspended from trading since mid-2022 due to being far behind on financial reporting. This was initially due to three subsidiaries of the group being placed into business rescue, although the subsequent process to catch up on the financial reporting has clearly taken a very long time as well.
PSV Holdings (JSE: PSV) has decided not to object to the JSE’s decision to delist the company after an extended period of the business rescue practitioners negotiating with other parties to try recapitalise and save the company. An update on the timing of the delisting will be provided in due course, but it won’t take long to happen.
Unlock the Stock is a platform designed to let retail investors experience life as a sell-side analyst. Corporate management teams give a presentation and then we open the floor to an interactive Q&A session, facilitated by the hosts.
We are grateful to the South African team from Lumi Global, who look after the webinar technology for us, as well as EasyEquities who have partnered with us to take these insights to a wider base of shareholders.
In the 65th edition of Unlock the Stock, Southern Sun joined the platform to talk about the recent numbers and the strategic outlook for the business. As usual, I co-hosted this event with Mark Tobin of Coffee Microcaps and the team from Keyter Rech Investor Solutions.
Mr Price shows the finger to the market (JSE: MRP)
And the share price just keeps sliding
If all else fails at Mr Price, perhaps they should start a dating blog. After all, dating is all about confidence, and there’s no shortage of confidence at the company despite a share price that looks like this:
After the market had a small heart attack about the NKD transaction, there was some hope that management would at least reconsider their approach and possibly get out of the deal, or at least respond publicly to the many questions posed by the likes of 36ONE. I have no idea what the engagement behind closed doors with major shareholders has been, but I can tell you that the rest of us who only work off SENS have been flipped the bird.
Here’s a summary of the company’s approach: “You don’t like the deal? Well toughies for you, because we do.” It just gets dressed up in fancy corporate PR speak.
There’s no indication of any wiggle room in the contract. They talk about the deal being contractually complete and only subject to regulatory approvals. As I wrote when the deal was first announced, I would be surprised if the private equity sellers on the other side allowed for a break fee. They know a sucker when they see one.
Mr Price has promised a capital markets day in due course to explain to the market why this is such a good idea. I’m not sure what they plan to share that isn’t already clear to people. Unless the valuation multiple is somehow drastically different to what the market already believes, then the plummeting share price reflects the opinion of the market on the deal.
The company also gave a link to help shareholders find the 2024 audited financials of NKD. It’s just a pity that it lands on a German company register page where it isn’t clear at all how to go about finding the financials. Perhaps you’ll have more luck than me.
The poor ongoing disclosure (how hard would it have been to actually explain the EBITDA multiple?) is actually the perfect summary of their “just trust us, bro” approach to this entire transaction. Low levels of disclosure, substantial levels of hubris and a predictable impact on the share price. After so much good work in the past year or two to integrate the South African acquisitions, management got way ahead of themselves here and completely failed to read the room.
I have still not come across a single investor who is happy with the deal. Not one. It’s rare to see unanimous hatred of a transaction.
NEPI Rockcastle is growing, but it’s not exciting on a per-share basis (JSE: NRP)
And that’s the basis that counts
Property funds tend to achieve significant growth through capital raises and property acquisitions. This is important context, as any growth rate achieved by these funds needs to be considered on a per-share basis to take into account the dilutionary impact of share raises. Increasing the size of the pie is easy. Increasing the size of the slice each shareholder has in their hands is much harder. It’s the difference between inviting extra people for Christmas lunch vs. providing a larger portion per guest.
In a pre-close update, NEPI Rockcastle has highlighted 11% growth in total net operating income for 2025. That sounds amazing obviously, but distributable earnings per share will be roughly 3% higher than in 2024. That’s a big gap.
The like-for-like growth in tenant sales of 3.7% shows you why the per-share growth in distributable earnings is only 3%. Another important point to note is that like-for-like footfall was down 0.5%, so growth in sales is primarily coming from inflation and mix effects.
Don’t get me wrong: the fund is healthy and delivering growth in hard currency. It’s just very important that you anchor to the 3% growth rate, not the 11% growth in total net operating income that was boosted by acquisitions.
The balance sheet reflects the quality of the portfolio, with the fund having no trouble in refinancing debt and raising green finance linked to solar PV projects. The loan-to-value ratio is “well under 35%” – a healthy level.
Nibbles:
Director dealings:
I’ve been pretty bearish on the Premier (JSE: PMR) – RFG Holdings (JSE: RFG) transaction. The RFG Holdings directors aren’t exactly sending a bullish message to the market, as there have been extensive on-market disposals by various directors worth nearly R24 million in aggregate. I don’t blame them at all.
A person closely associated with a director of British American Tobacco (JSE: BTI) sold shares worth nearly R17 million.
The chairman of Orion Minerals (JSE: ORN) has subscribed for A$1 million worth of shares as part of the company’s broader capital raise that was announced in September. As an aside, the company also managed to settle its South African advisor in shares rather than cash, so that’s a win for the health of the balance sheet.
An associate of a director of Goldrush (JSE: GRT) entered into a CFD trade over Goldrush preference shares worth R3.3 million.
The CEO of Argent Industrial (JSE: ART) bought shares worth over R1.6 million.
The CEO of Aveng (JSE: AEG) retained his vested share awards, but the CFO and the finance director of Moolmans both sold their full awards worth a total of around R410k.
A director of Spear REIT (JSE: SEA) – and not the CEO for once – bought shares worth R58k.
Although not a traditional director dealing, this is a related story. Directors of Quantum Foods (JSE: QFH) had previously granted call options to a third party to acquire shares at any time between 2 September 2024 and 31 December 2025. The parties have decided to extend this option to 30 June 2027.
Curro (JSE: COH) will delist on 13 January. Shareholders are therefore only a few weeks away from having a mix of Capitec (JSE: CPI) and PSG Financial Services (JSE: KST) shares in their brokerage accounts instead. I wish Curro’s management team all the best for the future – this is a very important business in South Africa.
Kibo Energy (JSE: KBO) continues to be a story of hit-and-miss, with the planned acquisition of Australian renewable energy company Carbon Resilience falling over. This was supposed to be a reverse takeover transaction, but Carbon Resilience and the seller of the asset haven’t provided sufficient due diligence documentation within the required timeframe for the agreement to become effective. To make it worse, the noteholder providing funding to Kibo Energy has switched the taps off and won’t provide the next tranche, so the company is now scrambling for alternative funding and an acquisition. Kibo is currently suspended from trading.
Here’s an interesting non-executive director appointment that deserves a mention: Richard Wainwright, the ex-CEO of Investec Bank from 2016 to 2024, has joined the board of Pepkor (JSE: PPH).
In a sad and sorry end to a business journey that in so many ways captures the economic trajectory of South Africa after the FIFA World Cup, Murray & Roberts (JSE: MUR) will delist from the JSE on 19 January as part of the liquidation process. Farewell to one of the craziest examples of value destruction that you’ll ever find on our market.
Novus (JSE: NVS) keeps chipping away at Mustek (JSE: MST) shares, buying a further R23k. These numbers aren’t moving the dial at all though.
The parties are satisfied that all conditions have been met
In very good news for South African children, the Curro transaction has met all the deal conditions and will be going ahead. I wondered if we might experience the classic South African regulatory experience of some kind of disaster along the way (usually from the Competition Commission), but thankfully the conditions attached to the approval seem to be acceptable to the parties.
With the TRP compliance certificate due imminently, Curro will soon announce the final timetable for the delisting.
The anti-billionaire peanut gallery has had a lot to say about this deal on social media. I’ll just make my position super clear here: this is a massive get-out-of-jail card for the South African education system. Curro was on a concerning trajectory and simply didn’t make sense anymore as a listed for-profit company.
Hold onto your hats for the Hulamin numbers (JSE: HLM)
Just how bad will the full year be?
Hulamin’s normalised HEPS was down 48% at the halfway mark of the year. Without the normalisation adjustments, HEPS was down a spectacular 81%. It’s therefore not a surprise that the numbers for the year ending December 2025 are going to be sharply down vs. the prior year. The question is: by how much?
A trading statement doesn’t help us much in terms of the percentage. They’ve taken the minimum disclosure approach by indicating that earnings will fall by at least 20%. Remember, when you see the words “at least 20%” in a trading statement, the move can be a lot higher. This is why I’m referring you back to the interim move for context.
They do at least talk about “plant output having stabilised” and “product quality deviations back under control” after a period in which there was a significant integrated plant shut and associated operational challenges.
They also make it clear that they are in compliance with banking covenants and haven’t requested any covenant relaxation from lenders.
The share price is down 38% in the past year. If someone put Hulamin under your tree at the end of 2024, you’ve had a bad time since then.
Labat Africa highlights a “fundamental inflection point” – and the numbers support this (JSE: LAB)
What will this stock achieve in 2026?
Labat’s results are not particularly useful if you focus on the year-on-year percentage changes. This is because there have been significant acquisitions of IT assets, so you aren’t comparing apples with apples, or even any other kind of fruit. Instead, it’s better to just look at the current shape of the income statement and what the business currently makes.
As further evidence of just how much simpler the business is, there is no segmental report for the period. This is because the healthcare segment was disposed of with effect from 1 June 2025, leaving them with only the IT and technology operations in terms of continuing operations.
With revenue of R150.9 million and gross profit of R99.7 million, there’s clearly something to talk about here. Next up comes the strangest part: operating expenses were just R1 million. The group operating profit of R96.9 million is a seemingly impossible margin of 64%!
Cash from operations was R45 million, so there’s a pretty big gap between operating profit and the cash related to those activities. Still, that’s a healthy margin of around 30%.
With HEPS of 3.64 cents for the six months, the share price of 8 cents is looking very appealing. Punters are all over this thing. Could this be the dark horse stock pick of 2026? With the company also releasing a fresh cautionary announcement about a potential transaction, there’s a lot to consider here.
And just for fun, there’s also a very juicy paragraph in the results aimed squarely at SARS:
“The group has made every effort to bring this matter to finality. SARS on the other hand has done everything in its power to stall rectification of unlawful allocations to a debt which does not exist notwithstanding Supreme Court of Appeal case law to finalise tax matters. We have appointed a group of experts to pursue the matter on our behalf.”
I just wish they would fix their website, since I get an “account suspended” screen when I try access it!
Sanlam brings MUFG Bank onto the Shriram register (JSE: SLM)
Having the right players around the table is key to success, especially offshore
Sanlam has built an impressive emerging markets business that includes the Shriram investment in India. There are various companies in Shriram, one of which is Shriram Finance Limited – listed on the National Stock Exchange of India with a market cap of around $18 billion. Sanlam has a 9.5% stake in this company through various vehicles, but the local financial services giant plays a much bigger strategic role than the shareholding would suggest.
The latest deal will see the introduction of Japanese-headquartered financial institution MUFG Bank onto the register. MUFG has a market cap of $170 billion and a footprint across more than 50 countries. MUFG will subscribe for a 20% stake in Shriram Finance Limited for $4.4 billion, subject to regulatory and other approvals.
Aside from access to low-cost funding and the benefits of having an even stronger balance sheet, the parties have also flagged benefits in areas like technology.
Sanlam will dilute to around 7.6%. The other companies in the “promoter group” will take the total to 20.3%, just slightly more than MUFG will have. Sanlam has flagged that there might be a restructure of how its interest in Shriram Finance Limited is held.
There are other transactions underway in India as well. For example, there’s a deal going back to April 2024 in which Sanlam is looking to acquire additional interests in Shriram General Insurance Company and Shriram Life Insurance Company, taking the stakes to 50.99% and 53.69% respectively. Regulatory approvals have taken longer than expected, but they believe that the approvals should come in Q1 2026.
And in yet another deal linked to Shriram Life Insurance Company, Sanlam is looking to acquire a further 14.72% in the company from Piramal Finance. This would take the stake to 68.41% once all the deals are concluded.
India is an exciting and important emerging market in which Sanlam has built a strong position.
Nibbles:
Director dealings:
A family trust in the Bekker family sold over R860 million in Naspers (JSE: NPN) shares and around R1.6 billion in Prosus (JSE: PRX) shares to fund the building of hospitality venues in South Africa, the UK and Italy. Must be nice!
An associate of a director of Fairvest (JSE: FTA | JSE: FTB) sold shares worth R21.4k.
An associate of a director of Hammerson (JSE: HMN) bought shares worth over R11.3 million. Separately, the CEO of Hammerson sold shares worth R10.5 million!
A non-executive director of Argent Industrial (JSE: ART) bought shares worth R1.6 million.
The company secretary of Famous Brands (JSE: FBR) sold shares worth R105k.
The CEO of Sirius Real Estate (JSE: SRE) bought shares worth R64k in a self invested pension plan.
Frustratingly for Pan African Resources (JSE: PAN), the court was unhappy with the notice given to shareholders of the meeting for the resolutions for the share capital reduction. Despite certain shareholders not really wanting that notice and voting on the deal anyway, the court took the hard stance and has blocked the share capital reduction. Not only does this waste time, but also money – Pan African Resources will have to send out another circular and host another general meeting.
While Novus (JSE: NVS) is still trying to bring the acquisition of Mustek (JSE: MST) to a close, the former is still buying shares in the latter on the market. The latest purchase is worth R39k, taking Novus to a 39.96% stake in Mustek and a 60.25% stake if you include concert parties. It’s a tiny purchase, but a useful reminder of how big the total stake has become.
In a slightly funny announcement, SAB Zenzele Kabili (JSE: SZK) announced that a dividend has been received from AB InBev (JSE: ANH) for the first time – but that “the amount is not very large”. In other words, there is no dividend to SAB Zenzele Kabili shareholders.
An update on Anglo American’s group simplification (JSE: AGL)
They needed to publish this updateunder UK Takeover laws,
Anglo American released an announcement that covers the progress across various group projects. They needed to release this announcement for compliance reasons, but it’s also just a helpful reminder to shareholders of what the group has been doing.
In nickel, Anglo American is working on the final remaining regulatory approval (the European Commission) for the disposal of the business to MMG Singapore Resources for up to $500 million.
In platinum, the demerger of Valterra Platinum (JSE: VAL) is behind them and Anglo exited that entire investment a few months ago. If you want a particular commodity to do really well, just get Anglo American to unbundle it! We saw it with Thungela (JSE: TGA) and now we’ve seen it with platinum. Anglo raised cash proceeds of R44.1 billion from the Valterra sale.
In steelmaking coal, you may recall that they sold the 33.3% interest in Jellinbah Group for around $1 billion. In November 2024 (more than a year ago), they announced the sale of the remaining steelmaking coal business to Peabody Energy for up to $3.775 billion. The deal with Peabody eventually fell through as Peabody walked away from the deal, so Anglo is now on the hunt for a buyer.
They are also looking for a buyer for De Beers, although that feels like a tough business to sell at the moment. You’ll struggle to find a diamond bull out there after the disruption caused by lab-grown diamonds.
And finally, in crop nutrients, they are taking a focused approach with their planned capex spend for 2025 of $0.3 billion. Completion of a full feasibility study is the major milestone that they are chasing.
They’ve certainly had a busy time, particularly as this update excludes anything to do with the merger with Teck Resources!
DRDGOLD crystallises a solar investment (JSE: DRD)
They get to unlock the cash and lock in the long-term supply
DRDGOLD announced the disposal of 100% in Stellar Energy Solutions to NOA Group Assets for R147.5 million. The deal is about to close, with an implementation date of 23 December.
The Stellar project has been underway since 2023, with most of the licences and approvals now in place for the development of a 150MWh solar power plant in Polokwane. The project is therefore “shovel-ready” as they say in this sector. In addition, during 2025, DRDGOLD commissioned a 60MWh solar plant and 160MWh battery energy storage system at the ERGO operations in Gauteng, meeting roughly half of ERGO’s total power needs.
Aside from unlocking cash through the disposal, DRDGOLD has also secured a renewable energy deal with the purchaser of the assets to procure 76GWh per annum in renewable energy, with supply commencing in January 2028.
HEPS is over 4x higher at Labat Africa (JSE: LAB)
This small cap was one of the big surprises of 2025
Labat Africa is busy shaking off its image as a cannabis stock. These days, the company is focused on the IT sector, having made some acquisitions and taken steps to offload the legacy assets. The company is nothing like it used to be, with the trading statement for the six months to November providing further evidence of this.
HEPS is a whopping 4.4x higher, coming in at 5.68 cents vs. 1.29 cents in the prior period. The NAV per share is now 25.13 cents.
And the share price? 7 cents. Just 7 cents! Those who enjoy small caps may want to do some further digging here. Sadly, when I tried to access the website, it wasn’t working. It might do wonders for the valuation multiple if they sort that out sooner rather than later.
WeBuyCars to acquire 49% in GoBid for R377 million (JSE: WBC)
This is a vertical integration play with a pathway to control
WeBuyCars took a nasty knock in the share price recently as the market reacted to a weaker-than-expected year for the company. They’ve been facing an environment of extensive disruption in the automotive sector. The share price has partially recovered since the major sell-off and is still 11% up year-to-date.
The company has now announced the acquisition of 49% in GoBid for R377 million, with put and call options that give them a pathway to control in the future. More on that to come.
Before we get to the deal specifics, we need to discuss what they are actually buying! GoBid is a digital auction platform that focuses on accident-damaged vehicles, cars that aren’t worth repairing and general second-hand vehicles. WeBuyCars currently uses GoBid for the disposal of non-runners, write-offs, salvage vehicles and those that aren’t fit for sale. This is therefore a vertical integration play in which WeBuyCars wants more exposure to the full value chain.
WeBuyCars describes it as a strategy to service the “entire South African vehicle market by acquiring vehicles across all categories and in any condition.”
Back to the deal structure. The call option unfortunately only locks in a stake of up to 51%, with the incremental 2% coming at a price of R15.7 million. It is exercisable during a window period between 6 months and 12 months after the effective date. Although there’s some flexibility here for WeBuyCars, in reality I can’t see a world in which they wouldn’t step over the 50% mark and control the company. You would never buy 49% and stop there.
There are also put and call options related to GoBid undertaking share repurchases based on the profit achieved in 2028 and a P/E multiple of 8x.
Speaking of multiples, WeBuyCars is paying a P/E of 7.8x based on the profits attributable to the 49% holding. The group is trading on a much higher P/E than this, so the deal should be seen as good news for shareholders.
Here’s where it gets interesting: the seller of 40% in GoBid is none other than Taximart, part of the very broken SA Taxi stable. The other 9% comes from various sellers including Fledge Capital.
This is a Category 2 transaction, so no shareholder vote will be required,
Nibbles:
Director dealings:
An associate of a director of Rex Trueform (JSE: RTN) bought N ordinary shares worth just over R20 million.
A senior executive of Mondi (JSE: MNP) exercised shares options and sold the whole lot to the value of R2.8 million.
A director of a major subsidiary of ADvTECH (JSE: ADH) and that director’s spouse sold shares worth a total of R1.3 million.
The CEO of Spear REIT (JSE: SEA) bought shares for himself and his family worth R36k.
A director of a major subsidiary of Stefanutti Stocks (JSE: SSK) bought shares worth R10k.
Numeral (JSE: XII) is undertaking a 10-to-1 share consolidation and then a private placement of shares for up to R100 million. That’s a big number! Roughly R34.5 million is underwritten by an existing shareholder. With the market cap currently at R12.4 million, this is clearly a huge step forward for the company – and highly dilutive to current shareholders.
In theory at least, Shuka Minerals (JSE: SKA) is on track to receive the balance of funds from Gathoni Muchai Investments for the acquisition of Leopard Exploration and Mining. I’ll fully believe it when the money is in the bank before the end of December, as there have been many delays and concerning updates around the flow of cash required to complete the deal.
As part of the structuring around the GEM share subscription facility, Mantengu (JSE: MTU) announced the issuance of R3.3 million in shares to an associate of the CEO to make the associate whole. There’s no effective change to the shareholding.
Barloworld (JSE: BAW) is one of the few remaining examples of companies with listed preference shares on the JSE. There’s almost no liquidity in these shares, as only institutional holders tend to participate. There are only 39 shareholders recorded in the register! With Barloworld’s delisting expected to be concluded by the end of January 2026, the company is also looking to redeem and delist the preference shares. At R2.50 per share plus some interest, this is a cash outflow of less than R1 million to redeem all the shares.
Sebata Holdings (JSE: SEB) is currently suspended from trading due to failure to publish financial results. This is mostly due to the complexities in the accounting treatment of the Inzalo transactions that fell through. They need to release the results for the year ended March 2025 as well as the interims for the six months to September 2025. They hope to get both out the door by the end of January 2026, which would then lead to the lifting of the suspension.
In the year 2000, a lot happened. There was some questionable pop music. There was also the Dot-Com Crisis, followed by a period that saw incredible equity returns in South Africa until the Global Financial Crisis hit in 2007/2008. And during that important period in our local market, we also saw the emergence and initial growth of ETFs in South Africa, spearheaded by Satrix.
To reflect on 25 years of ETFs in South Africa, René Basson joined me to share the important milestones and fascinating stories that defined this journey. In doing so, it became clear just how much has changed in South Africa to make investing accessible to everyone.
Join us as we look back on how Satrix made it possible for everyone to own the market.
Satrix Investments (Pty) Ltd & Satrix Managers (RF) (Pty) Ltd is an authorised financial services provider. The information does not constitute advice as contemplated in FAIS. Use or rely on this information at your own risk. Consult your Financial Adviser before making an investment decision. While every effort has been made to ensure the reasonableness and accuracy of the information contained in this document (“the information”), the FSP’s, its shareholders, subsidiaries, clients, agents, officers and employees do not make any representations or warranties regarding the accuracy or suitability of the information and shall not be held responsible and disclaims all liability for any loss, liability and damage whatsoever suffered as a result of or which may be attributable, directly or indirectly, to any use of or reliance upon the information. For more information, visit https://satrix.co.za/products
Full Transcript:
The Finance Ghost: Welcome to this episode of the Ghost Stories podcast. This is the last one for 2025 with the team from Satrix, and as has become somewhat of a tradition, we end off with René Basson. She is the Head of Brand and Marketing at Satrix.
It takes me about a year to convince her to actually emerge from the cave of marketing and come and speak on this podcast, and I’m always so glad when she does because we get a completely different lens on what’s happening at Satrix and all the excitement there.
And of course, we’re doing this in the year in which Satrix has turned 25. So, congratulations, René, to everyone at Satrix. Hopefully, there was a nice big birthday party and some cake.
René Basson: There was! Hi Ghost, thanks for having me, and I’m glad to have come out of the cave. It was a great party. We had it two weeks ago, on the 27th of November.
The Finance Ghost: Very nice. Were there 25 candles? Or is that how Satrix saves money and keeps the fees nice and low on these funds, and you only had a few candles to represent 25?
René Basson: We had two big lights, a two and a five. So, you know…
The Finance Ghost: There we go.
René Basson: …No candles.
The Finance Ghost: So yes, the short answer is yes. Very nice. [laughing]
René Basson: Yes.
The Finance Ghost: It’s great to be able to do this with you, and we will be chatting through the history of Satrix. I mean, it’s an obvious thing to do in such a big birthday milestone year.
And I think it’s a great thing to do, because people forget just how important Satrix has been to changing the way that South Africans can invest. Well, I’m not sure if they forget, but they certainly don’t always realise the role that Satrix has really played here.
So, let’s start at the beginning, which seems like a good place to start. That is all the way back in January 2000 – dot-com crash, top of an equity cycle. I spoke to Kingsley a few podcasts ago, and he was explaining what it was like to be working during the dot-com crash.
Not to make anyone feel old, but I was finishing primary school at that time. So, ETFs were not top of mind for me, I’ve got to tell you. But it was also roughly around that time that we saw the start of a bull market in South Africa, something I’ve not really experienced in my professional career until this year, actually.
And that bull market would last all the way until the global financial crisis, when Wall Street kind of ruined the party. This represented the era in which Satrix got off the ground and did a lot of stuff, which we’ll dig into shortly.
But let’s start in 2000. What was the backstory here on the launch of Satrix? Such an important moment for the South African investment landscape.
René Basson: It certainly was. Many people might think our story started on the 27th of November 2000, but in fact, it was early 2000 in January when our first institutional mandate of R800 million was awarded. The client was mCubed, our first institutional client.
So, our former CEO, Helena Conradie, spoke at this event that we had two weeks ago, and she said something that really resonated with me. She said, “Sometimes we forget that the world we now take for granted was once held together by courage and duct tape.”
And I thought that was a really nice way to put it. Because if you think about passive investing or indexation, it was largely unknown back then. The industry didn’t exist. We didn’t have the vocab yet.
So, establishing this capability for Satrix really required the collective effort of a group of (I suppose you could call them) visionary supporters, who recognised the potential of indexation strategies long before this industry even took shape. So, this group of people really took a calculated risk to lay the groundwork of a market that didn’t exist yet.
So, if you move forward from Jan 2000 to just 11 months later, in November, a joint venture between the JSE, Gensec Bank (which was Sanlam Investments’ team back then or Gensec Asset Management), and Corpcapital resulted in the listing of South Africa’s very first Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) on the 27th of November 2000. And that was the Satrix Top 40 ETF.
It was a R2.6 billion IPO, and it kind of marked the first formal emergence of this new era of investing in South Africa. Another really interesting thing that Helena mentioned during the speech was that Satrix, which is currently the dominant indexation player in South Africa, was born inside an active house.
And what this really shows is that the investment ecosystem really collaborated to do something brand new. It was the JSE, Deutsche Bank, Corpcapital, Gensec Bank – it was really phenomenal and really shows how everyone came together to develop a new industry. It’s really exciting.
You’re probably wondering about the name – Satrix. The name was decided upon in a meeting of key players. Obviously, a lot of meetings were happening back then.
The story goes that Mike Brown and the team were chatting about names. They were throwing around names like ‘Trax’, ‘A-trax’, ‘B-trax’, ‘Matrix’. Then he said, “What about South African Index Trackers – Satrix?” And it stuck.
So, if you think about that, it’s quite interesting, because there was no creative agency, no strategy consultants involved. It was just this name that stuck, and it’s been synonymous with indexation since then.
Another couple of interesting facts. In 2009, Satrix was jointly owned by Deutsche Bank and Sanlam in a 50/50 partnership, and in 2012, Sanlam bought the Deutsche stake in Satrix. So, apparently, neither Sanlam nor Deutsche Bank wanted to let Satrix go.
They ultimately agreed to do a Texas Auction, where both parties had to write down the price of what they were willing to pay for the other 50%. Both envelopes were opened at exactly the same time, and the highest bid bought the other 50% out.
There were no negotiations, and we both know who ended up and what the outcome was with that. That was the start.
The Finance Ghost: Fantastic! What a great story. I love the ‘courage and duct tape’. That reminds me of my first year of racing at Killarney when I raced two-stroke karts. I started in the Clubman’s series, which is basically where very old and sad karts go to die. It’s like their last hurrah.
You pick them up cheap, and there’s a very good reason for that. I promise you, ‘courage and duct tape’ is quite literally what was holding those things together, more than once. So, that’s a great analogy. I love it.
And also, great point around the name. I think a lot of great startups are named by the founder because they started on a shoestring budget. They don’t have a whole committee of people coming up with a name. And what a good name it is. Uniquely South African. So, I love that.
Let’s go back to that first listing, then, JSE Top 40. I think you said R2.6 billion. Still a big number, especially for 2000. That’s not a small number. Obviously, dwarfed by what we have today in the fund (I’m not sure how big the fund is actually, I’d love you to confirm that), but is that the biggest ETF?
And do you think it’s the product that Satrix is still best known for? Or has the product range gotten so broad now that it’s really the Satrix name that everyone knows, as opposed to Satrix Top 40, like it was all those years ago?
René Basson: It’s an interesting question. I think, possibly yes. It’s probably what we’re most closely associated with. So, it’s certainly our flagship product, and I’d say possibly considered the default when people are asked to think about a South African ETF.
It is our biggest local ETF. The market cap is approximately R20 billion. And then, it’s in the top three. The other two in the top three are the MSCI World Unit Trust and the ETF as well.
The Finance Ghost: Of course, the market cap is a bit bigger now than it was a year ago, because what a year it’s been for the JSE Top 40. Gold stocks have been doing the most, and some other big contributions as well, coming through from the likes of Prosus. So, it’s been a really fantastic year.
I wasn’t joking when I said that this has really been the first time that I’ve truly experienced a bull market in South Africa, where you just see that steady improvement in sentiment coming through, and coming through. I think 2026 is going to get very interesting. Hopefully, nothing goes wrong (touch wood).
Let’s go back to 2006. This was now my matric year, and I was starting to figure out what to study. I actually remember when the news came out about the Satrix Investment Plan. This was very interesting to me because suddenly, it made the market so much more accessible.
And when I went to university and I started with my typical student jobs (which means a combination of some restaurant stuff, and in my case, some tennis coaching as well, which was great), some of that extra money every month could go into a Satrix Investment Plan, even though it was a modest amount every month. I started nice and early, and just a cool product, really.
And this was a big step because it opened products up to retail ownership, just like for me as a student with the small amount that I could put away each month. And it encourages people to invest regularly, which is so important in that wealth-creation journey.
So, let’s hear about the Satrix Investment Plan. It’s now what, roughly 19 years old? So, almost two decades of that thing. What has the investor behaviour been in this plan? How successful has it actually been?
René Basson: Yeah, Ghost, I wish I’d heard about the Satrix Investment Plan back then. I was actually overseas at that point – I’m a little bit older than you, so I was working already.
The plan launched in 2006. It allowed retail investors to invest in the JSE-listed assets for the first time, for, as you said, R300 or, I think it was R1,000 lump sum. This was a significant reduction in the minimum investment requirements at the time, when I think brokerage was around R100 per transaction.
So, it made it really easy for South Africans to start investing. It was a pretty disruptive time, I think you’ve mentioned that. And it was probably considered the precursor to SatrixNOW, which launched nine years later in 2015, in partnership with EasyEquities.
So, in terms of investor behaviour, I think it introduced this monthly, direct debit type of approach to investing, which was quite significant. It created this outlook of consistency, good habit-forming behaviour – something that we at Satrix try to encourage a lot of, still to this day.
And it also reduced the amount that was needed, which was a really big step. Back then, investing was around lump sums. Only wealthy people could do it, because you needed a large amount of cash to invest.
So, I think it opened up the landscape for a new type of investor – who didn’t necessarily want to work via a stockbroker – and made it more accessible. I think there was a significant increase in retail investment participation back then, and it’s been a steady growth.
The Investment Plan has kind of been folded into SatrixNOW, so the platform has been growing steadily. There’s momentum behind it, almost in line with the indexation industry itself.
The Finance Ghost: Yeah, people forget, right? Because today, we’re so spoiled. You can go and invest, literally your lunch money (and we’ll get to that), in basically anything you like on the market, now that there’s fractional investing.
Certainly was not the case at that time. So…
René Basson: It definitely wasn’t.
The Finance Ghost: Yeah, no, it wasn’t at all. It was a proper game changer to be able to set up a debit order of a few hundred bucks a month. And R300 back then was a number. So, the South African economy was doing better. So, in some respects it was a number, in some respects it wasn’t. But obviously, inflation tells us that that R300 would have been a lot more today.
We’re so spoiled now. You can go and invest literally R50 a month today, if that’s all you can do. Whereas back then, you needed R300 a month, and that was revolutionary. So, just shows where we’ve come from.
Then in 2013, which is now just over a decade ago, that was the first global product. Incredible timing because it basically exactly caught the start of the tech wave. I think the Facebook IPO was probably around that time, and that just dominated the narrative since then, it really has.
So, you had the global financial crisis, then you had the banks getting highly regulated, and people started to look for, “Okay, well, what’s the next source of growth?” (because obviously it’s not Wall Street). And it was tech, and it was software as a service (SaaS). That was built up over that sort of time. That’s how the world changed.
Microsoft was not always an amazing business. It really became one in the past decade. It became way more lucrative. Companies like Adobe went and revolutionised the way people think about software. Now, of course, Adobe is getting really hurt by AI, so the good times come and they go.
But it was fantastic timing for Satrix to actually have this global product. So, today, or maybe if you go back a year or two, everyone was just talking about offshore.
Obviously, over the last year, the JSE has gotten a lot of attention. But at that stage, and just thinking where we were as a country politically last decade, lots and lots of investors were throwing money at management teams to take money offshore and get some action there.
So, did you see that kind of adoption in these global products straight away? Did people jump at it because they were so keen to get that exposure? Or did it actually take a while for that to actually take off?
And then also, what was that product journey? Because I don’t think the first product was an ETF, was it?
René Basson: No, it wasn’t. So, the first global product that we introduced was an offshore unit trust, the Satrix MSCI World Equity Index Fund. The ETF equivalent only came later in 2017, when we listed the international ETFs locally.
So, it was definitely timeous given the equity boom at the time, local sentiment deteriorating, making offshore exposure really attractive, and it served as an initial offshore access point before global ETFs were introduced.
At the time in 2013, the SARB did not allow for CISs to offer offshore listed ETFs back then, which is why we chose to do the unit trust. I think at the time, Deutsche Bank had a product under db Xtrackers.
I guess from a Satrix perspective, this launch caught the beginning of that tech wave, as you mentioned. So, it was really strategically well positioned in response to the appetite of investors back then. And anecdotally, the interest was really strong.
Adoption-wise, if you think back to 2013, this was still an index tracking product, and moving from active to passive is a mindset change. You know, from a personal perspective, I kind of feel like that mindset change has only really taken off in the last year and a half, surprisingly.
And back in 2013, retail investors would still, even now, probably need a significant amount of education around product and index tracking itself. And then, being a unit trust, it would have still needed the traditional distribution channels.
So, I’d say the momentum behind this product was probably gradual, and it built up over time. I can’t quantify it, but if you consider this is now one of our top three flagship funds, you can draw the conclusion that it was and still is a very popular product.
In terms of local versus global in terms of our AUM (Assets Under Management), from an ETF perspective, global is bigger. And from a unit trust perspective, local is a lot bigger from an AUM perspective, which is quite interesting.
The Finance Ghost: Yeah, that is quite interesting. And we’ll have to see what the next 10 years hold, of course, because lots of uncertainty over what’s going to happen with AI. Is it a big bubble? Although, as I learned on the last podcast with Nico, he doesn’t like that term. But is it a big bubble? (Sorry, Nico.) Or is it actually going to just keep pushing through? It’s going to be super interesting to see what happens.
And that’s the benefit of diversification, and that’s why it’s so important that Satrix has all these different products in the product suite. Because you can go and get this diversification, local, offshore, sector, whatever else you want, basically, using ETFs – which is great.
And now, of course, there’s a way that you can do it that is even easier. Because in 2015 (and this was a really big one for investors in South Africa, this is now a decade ago), you implemented the partnership with EasyEquities.
And again, EasyEquities, when they started, people were not sure. I remember when they came out, there was this overarching distrust. How is this possible? How can I buy a piece of a share? How can the brokerage be this low? So, kudos to what they’ve built over the past decade. Fantastic.
And I’m guessing for the likes of Satrix, through that partnership, that’s been a huge win for you guys as well. Because obviously, it just makes it so much easier for people to go and allocate to a Satrix ETF as part of their broader portfolio, right?
René Basson: Yeah, definitely. So, the partnership with EasyEquities started in 2015 for Satrix. And the story goes that our former CEO, Helena, saw a tweet from Charles, and the rest is history, as they say.
You could definitely say this ushered in a new era of digital investing, with the minimums reduced to zero and this fully digitised interface that EasyEquities had developed. And this innovation and collaboration was recognised. We won multiple FinTech Awards for the platform in partnership with Easy as well. So, really exciting times.
EasyEquities started in 2014, and I also actually remember it. I got a R50 voucher back then, and I obviously had no clue what this was. I was also very sceptical about it. But they had patented that fractionalisation of share rights, which meant that they could solve for two challenges that our business had at the time: the investment minimums and then the access – how do we give more people access to the market?
So, in May 2015, this tweet was discovered. I think Helena had come across it. The Satrix team really liked how EasyEquities presented themselves. They aligned very much in terms of our vision, values, philosophy.
The teams apparently met each other in June 2015. Development of the platform SatrixNOW started in August, and SatrixNOW launched in December 2015. So, if you look at this timeline, from a fintech perspective, this is really incredible. It’s very accelerated.
We launched the app for SatrixNOW in 2020. And I guess from an adoption point of view, if you look again, I mentioned the industry has taken its time. It’s been building momentum over time. The platform has been the same for us – the momentum has built slowly. It’s been steady growth.
We now have over 100,000 investors – active investors. So, we look at it specifically from active versus registered clients. The average age of a SatrixNOW investor is 38. And in terms of gender split, when we launched in 2015, it was 64% male investors, and now we’re sitting at 53% male investors. So, we’re really excited that we’ve been able to encourage more female investors over the years.
I think the average NAV is currently around R180,000, and the majority of our registrations for the platform come from referrals and digital channels. From a marketing perspective, it’s a great stat and a great source of information that helps us develop our marketing strategy as well.
So, yeah, the partnership with Easy has been fantastic. We work with them very closely on a daily basis, and it’s really transformed how Satrix was able to bring our products to market.
The Finance Ghost: Yeah, I love that. I love the fact that it was a R50 voucher because again, if we just go back to 2006 with the Satrix Investment Plan, the minimum debit order all the way back in 2006 was R300. And then you were getting a R50 voucher to go buy shares. It was so mind-blowing.
Again, people who have only started investing in this kind of pandemic and post-pandemic era don’t understand how weird it was to know that you could take your lunch money and invest it in shares instead. And that was some of the marketing at the time, if I recall correctly – that kind of thing. It was really amazing. I was working in corporate finance at the time, and I remember just how fascinating it was for us to see this thing play out. So, very, very cool.
If we then go forward a few years, 2019, you hit R100 billion AUM. Now you’re on almost R300 billion* AUM. So, it really has been quite a journey.
And as far as I know, there was even a Harvard case study along the way, around the time of the start of the pandemic. How did that come about? That must have been pretty interesting, right?
René Basson: Very, very interesting. And this kind of global recognition of the strategy of the business is really quite something to be very proud of. How it came about, I’m not actually quite sure.
I do think Helena and the team, the ExCo back then, obviously had some connection or were working with the team at Harvard.
The Finance Ghost: Maybe they saw a tweet. That’s how it all happens. Someone tweets something, and then partnerships are made.
René Basson: Exactly. This is really how the world works, right? And the case study was titled Satrix: Competing in the Passive Asset Management Industry in South Africa. It was published in 2020, and it focused on the strategic decisions that Satrix took around fee leadership and market positioning.
And there was a big focus on the 2017 fee cut of the flagship Top 40. And, my understanding is that there were four key ‘teaching’ angles that the case study looked at. So, they looked at the pricing strategy in passive markets – so, that fee cut on the Top 40 (we cut it from 38 bps to 10 bps in 2017), how the business framed that from a market leadership and brand promise point of view.
Then they looked at the competition and consumer perception around the fee cut and price elasticity – brand positioning, long-term commitment to low-cost investing. Then they also touched on the distribution and inclusion part, so the role of SatrixNOW and the partnerships with EasyEquities, for example.
Also touched on the partnership at the time with BlackRock (because we launched all our feeder funds in 2017), and scaling this access and education, and linking to the brand purpose of democratising investing.
And then the final thing was the execution risk and the operational model – so, how was the business delivering low tracking error at scale and supporting growth through internal technology?
So, it was apparently a phenomenal case study. We do have a copy somewhere. I need to haul it out, but yeah, this global recognition was quite something and really impressive.
The Finance Ghost: That is amazing. I mean, a Harvard case study is a pretty big deal. So, well done. It also shows that (and this is something I think especially this year, with everything going on geopolitically, people mustn’t forget) South Africa is on the global map.
René Basson: Definitely!
The Finance Ghost: Much as the US may be trying to turn us into a global pariah at the moment (which they will be very unsuccessful at), we are a really important emerging market. And I think with all the positive momentum we’ve got in South Africa, we’re becoming an even more important emerging market over time.
So, it is nice to see that. I do think that 2026 is going to be a very interesting year for the local market. I really hope that a lot of the momentum will continue.
I’m not sure that gold is going to continue the way it has been because that has been pretty wild. But I’m hoping that a lot of that love will now make its way into the mid-caps and some of the more ‘SA Inc.’ focused businesses. We’ll see what happens.
From your side, as we go into 2026, as we bring this year to a close, what do you think the brand really means to South Africans, and what could the year to come actually hold for you?
Where do you see this thing now as you go and reflect over the holiday? If you’re going to get a holiday, because you’ve told me there are a lot of exciting things coming! So, actually, the team’s keeping you very busy. Maybe that’s the answer, René – 2026 is going to have a lot?
René Basson: 2026 is going to be very busy, but I say this every year. The whole team, we say, “Oh, it’s going to be busy,” and then the next year is even busier, and yeah. 2026, watch this space. We have a lot of stuff going on. So, I’m excited.
But I think, from a brand perspective, the Satrix brand is really, really special (and I know I’m biased because I’m Head of Brand and Marketing). Our tagline is “Own the market.” And frankly, as a marketer, I couldn’t possibly have thought of a better tagline for a business like ours, purely because it really articulates what we do in three words. Instead of buying 40 shares on the JSE to get a slice of the Top 40, you can buy one. So, you literally ‘own the market’ through one transaction.
So, I think from a brand perspective, and what we mean to South Africans, we mean access and inclusion. We do a lot of work around education and trying to help people feel empowered – that they understand financial markets, that they understand what investing is – and getting to the crux of the basics.
And I think a lot of people, myself included – I didn’t know about investing when I went to university. You would have thought I did, but I probably wasn’t that interested either. But I love the work that we do around the education piece, and I think having the app, with a few clicks, you can invest in an ETF. It’s phenomenal.
From a value perspective, I think we mean low cost. Indexation is, by nature, low cost, but I think we’ve taken a lot of strategic decisions over the years to cut fees dramatically, and that definitely shows that we’re doing the best we can for our investors. The Harvard case study was a global endorsement of this and the strategy.
Then there’s the element of trustworthiness. We’re a financial services provider. We’re in a highly regulated industry, which is really phenomenal. And I think South Africa, as you said, we’re on the map. We got out of the grey listing. We’ve got a lot to be proud of.
And I think for our business, over two decades of experience, we really focus on low tracking error, a best-in-class team, and the breadth of product that we bring to the market. We’re constantly innovating, trying to do the best for our investors.
And I think finally, just to say, we’re the favourite. We’ve won a number of People’s Choice Awards, which are voted for by investors like you and me. And that’s kudos to the work that our team does, and I think it’s something to be very proud of.
I heard someone say in our 20th anniversary videos that we did, “People really can own the market because of Satrix.” And I think that’s something that we, as a business, sometimes forget to be really proud of.
It’s been 25 years of hard work, and as I said, industry stalwarts and people who were visionary have put us in this position now, and it’s really exciting to be part of that journey.
The Finance Ghost: 25 years of owning the market. That is the story at the end of the day, and it’s been a fascinating one to watch. I really have enjoyed it. I feel like I’ve lived it for many years before my Finance Ghost initiatives and ambitions there. So, it really has been great.
René, thank you. I think that brings the year to a close in style. It’s been a big year for Satrix. There’s a lot to come in 2026. I’m really looking forward to speaking to the team about everything that’s coming. We’re going to do another year of podcasts.
So, thank you for the ongoing support in Ghost Mail and, of course, the importance that you put on the Ghost Mail audience. I know that they get a huge amount of value from this.
And to listeners, if you’ve missed any of the Satrix podcasts this year, go back and listen to them. They are somewhat timeless in terms of the lessons that we talk about there, the investment insights, and a lot of the concepts. They’re not necessarily based on what’s going on in the world at that point in time.
We’ve done shows ranging from investing for your kids right through to trying to assess valuations in the market and when to be scared and when to double down, and it’s really these skills that will just help you on this journey.
So, René – and to the whole team at Satrix – thank you so much for another lovely year. Can’t wait to do this again in 2026, which means René, I will do another one with you 12 months from now, when we get you out of your cave in December 2026, and we talk about what the 26th year of Satrix has included.
René Basson: I look forward to it, Ghost. Thank you so much!
The Finance Ghost: Thank you, and to all the listeners, have a fantastic December holiday, and we will see you in January.
*Source: Satrix, 30 September 2025
Satrix Investments (Pty) Ltd & Satrix Managers (RF) (Pty) Ltd is an authorised financial services provider. The information does not constitute advice as contemplated in FAIS. Use or rely on this information at your own risk. Consult your Financial Adviser before making an investment decision. While every effort has been made to ensure the reasonableness and accuracy of the information contained in this document (“the information”), the FSP’s, its shareholders, subsidiaries, clients, agents, officers and employees do not make any representations or warranties regarding the accuracy or suitability of the information and shall not be held responsible and disclaims all liability for any loss, liability and damage whatsoever suffered as a result of or which may be attributable, directly or indirectly, to any use of or reliance upon the information. For more information, visit https://satrix.co.za/products
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