Saturday, April 26, 2025
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GHOST BITES (Alphamin | BHP | Merafe | Ninety One | Sasol | South32 | Zeder)

Security issues in the DRC ruined Alphamin’s quarter (JSE: APH)

As expected, annual guidance has been reduced

Alphamin has released its production and operational update for Q1 of 2025. As operations ceased on 13 March 2025, they basically lost over half a month of production. It’s therefore not a surprise to see an 18% drop in contained tin production vs. the immediately preceding quarter (ended December 2024).

If anything, it would’ve been worse if not for the higher tin grade of the ore that was processed this quarter. They processed 31% less ore, with the overall tin grade coming in at 3.55% vs. 3.00% in the preceding quarter. They expect the higher grade to average down over the rest of the year.

It does sound as though they’ve managed to catch up some of the lost sales after the end of the quarter in terms of sales and exports. They were sitting at 3,863 tonnes sold by the end of March, with a much better number of 4,581 tonnes by 16 April. Even then, they are way below the 4,942 tonnes in the preceding quarter (without taking into account an extra couple of weeks).

Due to the drop in production, all-in sustaining cost per tonne was up 9%. This more than offset the benefit of a 7% increase in price per tonne, so EBITDA was down 19% vs. the preceding quarter.

Will they be able to catch up by the end of the year? Not when it comes to production it seems, with guidance for the full year decreased from 20,000 tonnes to 17,500 tonnes. They are also playing it safe with the balance sheet, choosing not to declare a final FY24 dividend.

Notably, the current managing director of the operating subsidiary in the DRC has elected to retire. Perhaps the latest stress was enough for him to call it a day. A replacement with substantial experience has been announced, so at least there is someone willing to take on the challenge.


Copper and iron ore lead the way at BHP (JSE: BHG)

Record nine-month production numbers are great news

Mining groups can’t control broader commodity prices. They can however allocate capital and manage their production levels in such a way as to build the best possible business over time. This is why investors put a lot of weight on things like production numbers, as they show how well (or poorly) the business is controlling the controllables.

BHP is making a song and dance about its nine-month production numbers and with good reason, as copper and iron ore production achieved record levels. Alongside this good news, the group acknowledges the tariff risks and the broader impact they could have on economic growth, while pointing to a “flight to quality” among mining assets as a mitigating factor for the group. There’s certainly been a flight in capital – a flight away from the sector, with the share price down 22% over 12 months.

Of course, record production in and of itself isn’t always exciting. For example, copper production increased by 10% to record numbers, yet Iron ore was up just 1%. One commodity is a story of growth and the other is a story of consistency, but both are records. There are also examples of commodities in crisis, like nickel where production fell 49% and and the facility has transitioned into temporary suspension. In the coal business, they had some wet weather to deal with in this quarter, dampening growth vs. the preceding quarter – literally.

If you look across the various mining operations, then production guidance for the full year is either unchanged or indicated as being towards the upper range of production guidance.

Despite the production performance, BHP’s share price is down more than 22% in the past 12 months due to pressure in iron ore and coal prices. Copper prices are trending in the right direction at least, so they are growing in the right place.


Merafe’s production reflects a difficult market (JSE: MRF)

And this is why the share price is down so much in the past year

Merafe’s share price has lost over 18% of its value in the past 12 months. This actually isn’t too bad vs. some of the huge negative moves we’ve seen in the mining sector. For example, Glencore (with whom Merafe has a chrome joint venture) has suffered a drop in price of over 40% over the same period!

The production update for the first quarter of the financial year shows that things are still in a difficult place vs. the comparable period. Attributable ferrochrome production decreased by 7% year-on-year, with the company noting that this is “in response to market conditions” – in other words, commodity prices are still a problem.


A modest uptick in AUM at Ninety One (JSE: NY1 | JSE: N91)

In the context of the past quarter, this actually looks decent

Ninety One reports quarterly updates on its assets under management (AUM). As companies like Ninety One earn revenue based on AUM, this is literally the lifeblood of the group.

AUM is affected by two things: net flows (the difference between investments and withdrawals by clients) and market movements. Companies that have built excellent distribution networks have generally done well (e.g. PSG Financial Services / Quilter), while those who depend more on market movements and independent financial advisors have struggled to achieve meaningful growth in AUM.

Market movements have been tough this year, so one would expect to see pressure on AUM over the past quarter. It’s pretty good in my books that Ninety One ended the financial year with AUM of £130.8 billion, representing a very small increase over the £130.2 billion as at the end of December 2024. Compared to the £126.0 billion as at the end of March 2024, they are up 3.8% for the year.

Hardly exciting, but could certainly have been worse.


Coal quality challenges continue to plague Sasol (JSE: SOL)

Global recession risks are relevant here as well

As you are probably aware, Sasol has been a tough story in recent years. This share price was close to R420 at one point in early 2023. Today, it trades at R66. Many hard lessons have been learnt by people on a stock that was also responsible for creating incredible wealth during the pandemic – provided you sold and banked your gains, of course.

There are various challenges at the moment, including the US tariffs and what they could mean for the global economy. A recession wouldn’t be kind to Sasol. Even without Trump, there are other significant hurdles, like coal quality and the impact it is having on Secunda Operations. Not only are they having to invest heavily to improve this, but they are also having to buy higher quality coal elsewhere in the meantime.

In a production update for the nine months to March, Sasol noted that the Mining business (Secunda Operations) has seen a 5% drop in production quarter-on-quarter. Over nine months, the decrease is 2%, so things have deteriorated over the course of the year. With production under pressure, cost per ton is R650 – R670, significantly worse than previous guidance of R600 – R640 per ton. The mitigating factor is an improved performance by Transnet Freight Rail, leading to a 40% increase in external sales (quarter-on-quarter) and 13% on a year-to-date basis.

Coal quality also impacts the Fuels business, with a further negative impact coming from flooding and fire incidents. Although they hope to largely meet their production guidance, it will be at the lower end of the range. Sales volumes are expected to be between 1% and 3% lower than the previous year

In the Gas business, production was impacted by unrest in Mozambique and planned maintenance. Despite being below last year’s numbers at the moment, they are hoping for a strong finish to the year that takes them 0% to 5% above the previous year.

Finishing off the local business, we have Chemicals Africa and a stronger Q3 vs. Q2 as they caught up on sales. The year-to-date picture is still a 2% drop in production, with an increase in the average basket price taking revenue to just 1% higher vs. the previous year. With Secunda production impacting this business and with tariff uncertainty as a factor now as well, sales volumes for the year are expected to be 2% to 4% lower.

Moving on to the International Chemicals business, the US operation continues to be a massive headache. Despite a 12% improvement in the average sales basket price on a year-to-date basis, revenue is down 5% thanks to a substantial drop in production. Some of this is due to planned maintenance, but there were unplanned outages as well. Finally the business in Eurasia also struggled with production, but to a far lesser extent that the US. This was good enough for a revenue increase of 3%, with production down 2% and prices thankfully up 5%.

Sasol’s share price is down 25% so far this year. It’s a very brave play in this environment.


South32 is on track to achieve its full year guidance (JSE: S32)

It looks like only one of the operations will fall short

South32 has released its production report for the quarter and nine months ended March 2025. This means there’s just one quarter left of the financial year, so one would hope to see them tracking strongly against their full year guidance.

This is indeed the case, with guidance unchanged across all but one of the group’s operations. Weather and other issues in Queensland caused guidance at Cannington to be decreased by 10%. As for the rest, it’s a promising story.

All eyes in mining seem to be on copper at the moment, so it’s worth highlighting that Sierra Gorda payable copper equivalent production increased by 20% year-on-based on a nine-month view.

To add to the positive news around production, the group also swung strongly into a positive net cash position, with net cash up $299 million to $252 million.

On the capex front, the focus from a growth capital perspective is on the Hermosa project, where South32 has invested $355 million over nine months. This is the Taylor zinc-lead-silver project, with sinking of the main shaft due to commence in June 2025.

It’s important to remember that maintenance capex is a feature of mining as well, as there are many fixed assets that need to be replaced over time. For context, South32 spent $294 million on capex over nine months excluding the major development projects.


Zeder’s NAV per share is down, but you must adjust for the special dividend (JSE: ZED)

This is very important when investment holding companies are selling off assets

Investment holding companies focus on net asset value (NAV) per share in their reporting. This is essentially management’s indication of what they believe that the group is worth. When the group is selling off assets and distributing the proceeds to shareholders (rather than doing share buybacks), you can expect to see a significant drop in the NAV per share. This is because the group is literally smaller than it was before, all else held equal.

Of course, all else isn’t usually held equal. There are valuation movements in the remaining assets as well. So, when Zeder tells you that NAV per share as at February 2025 is between 66 and 75 cents lower vs. the prior year, with the special dividend only explaining 61 cents of that move, you know that the rest of the portfolio took a knock to its value.

If we strip the 61 cents out of the base (R2.48) and use the guided range of R1.73 to R1.82 for the calculation, we find that the rest of the portfolio dropped in value by between 2.7% and 7.5%.


Nibbles:

  • Director dealings:
    • Various Mpact (JSE: MPT) directors sold shares worth over R12 million in aggregate. This related to share awards and there’s no indication that this was only the taxable portion, so I assume that it wasn’t.
    • The CEO of Sun International (JSE: SUI) sold shares worth almost R6.5 million. The shares relate to share awards and the announcement isn’t explicit on whether this is only the taxable portion. As above, I therefore assume that it isn’t.
    • The CFO of Clicks (JSE: CLS) bought R743k worth of shares in the company now that the results are out in the wild. Based on the results, I don’t blame him.
    • An independent non-executive director of OUTsurance (JSE: OUT) bought R255k worth of shares in the company.
  • Absa (JSE: ABG) looks to be joining the list of companies that have repurchased their listed preference shares. The Absa ones trade under the ticker JSE: ABSP. At one point, issuing preferences shares was a popular funding mechanism for both banks and corporates. For banks, this was driven by Basel regulations that have subsequently changed. It’s also worth mentioning that liquidity turned out to be thin in many of the corporate (and even banking) instruments, as there wasn’t much investor appetite for them beyond large institutions looking to buy and hold them. As there’s limited appeal in keeping these instruments out in the wild, Absa is looking to buy the shares at R930 per share via a scheme of arrangement, with a standby offer in case the scheme doesn’t pass. The latest traded price for the preference shares was R820 per share, so there’s a buyout premium here as one would expect to see. Absa will potentially part with R4.6 billion if the scheme gets approved, so the relative lack of activity in this sector doesn’t mean that there aren’t large numbers at play.
  • Brimstone Investment Corporation (JSE: BRT | JSE: BRN) issues shares to executives under a forfeitable share plan. This isn’t unusual. What is unusual is that the group then repurchases those shares under a specific repurchase. Why not just pay cash under a phantom share scheme, I hear you ask? I have no idea. Truly, I do not see the point of issuing and then repurchasing shares as compensation for executives, unless there’s some kind of tax benefit that I’m not familiar with.
  • Acsion Limited (JSE: ACS), released an updated cautionary announcement. The first one came out in March. The update is that Acsion has entered into negotiations with an unrelated third party regarding a potential acquisition. At this stage, there’s no certainty whatsoever of a deal happening.

Colombia has a cocaine hippo problem

Ecosystems are like very complicated Jenga towers: one wrong move, and suddenly you’ve got starlings in New York, hippos in Colombia, and scientists frantically trying to put the pieces back together.

One of my favourite lessons from high school biology was about ecosystems. I remember being amazed to learn how neatly everything inside a particular habitat fits together, with plants, herbivores, and carnivores all playing their part to keep the whole thing ticking along. Antelope roam the savannah, munching on plants and scattering seeds as they go. Lions, in turn, keep the antelope population from getting too ambitious.

It’s a delicate system. Too few antelope get eaten, and suddenly there are far too many nibbling mouths, stripping the plants faster than they can regrow. Too many lions, and the antelope start disappearing, leaving the plants to run wild until the lions, now short on dinner, start disappearing too. This balancing act repeats itself in every corner of the natural world. It’s an ordinary miracle that we often overlook, even as it happens right under our noses.

Naturally, it didn’t take long for humans to step in and throw a few wrenches into these carefully balanced systems, sometimes by accident, and sometimes with the kind of confidence only humans can muster. One of the more famous examples is the existence of European starlings in North America.

As the name hints, European starlings are not, in fact, from the United States. They owe their American citizenship to a group of Shakespeare enthusiasts in the 1890s who decided that what New York really needed was to be populated by all the birds ever mentioned in Shakespeare’s works. About a hundred starlings were released into Central Park, and after a few false starts, the birds settled in (with gusto).

Today, there are over 200 million starlings spread from Alaska to Mexico. Their success story is mostly thanks to their aggressive feeding and nesting habits, which local birds often can’t match. While hawks and falcons do their best to keep them in check, there simply aren’t enough predators around. In fact, the biggest force managing the starling population now is humans. We introduced them into an ecosystem where they didn’t belong, and we’ve been managing the fallout ever since.

Still, each starling is only about the size of a hand, which is a manageable problem, all things considered. In another part of the world, someone introduced a much larger animal into an ecosystem, and let’s just say the consequences have been considerably harder to wrangle.

Paradiso Escobar

Back in the late 1970s, famed Colombian drug lord Pablo Escobar decided that being wildly rich wasn’t worth it if you didn’t have your own personal kingdom to rule over. So he built Hacienda Nápoles, a 20-square-kilometre playground in Puerto Triunfo, Colombia.

Now, the man they called the King of Cocaine wasn’t exactly a minimalist. His estate featured a sprawling Spanish colonial mansion, a sculpture park, a private airport, a brothel, a fleet of luxury and vintage cars and bikes, and even a Formula 1 racetrack. And because no self-respecting kingpin’s home is complete without a zoo, Escobar built one and filled it with animals from around the world: antelope, elephants, exotic birds, giraffes, ostriches, ponies and, most memorably, hippos.

Of course, no earthly paradise could last forever. When Escobar was killed during a rooftop firefight with Colombian police in 1993, his family got into a messy legal fight with the government over who would inherit the estate. The government eventually took control, only to realise they’d won themselves a massive, crumbling property full of very expensive mouths to feed. As a result, most of the animals were crated up and shipped off to various South American zoos.

The hippos, however, turned out to be a much bigger problem (quite literally). Moving several tonnes of grumpy, semi-aquatic muscle proved too costly and complicated, so officials shrugged and left them where they were. And that’s how a handful of Escobar’s hippos ended up becoming permanent (and very prolific) residents of Colombia.

The problem with the hippopotamus

In case there was any doubt in your mind before, let me clarify that hippos are absolutely not native to South America. How Escobar even managed to get his hands on them in the first place remains a bit of a mystery, but when you’re worth $80 billion and have a Rolodex full of questionable contacts, it turns out very few things are off-limits.

When Escobar died in 1993, there were just four hippos living at Hacienda Nápoles – three females and one male. By 2007, that number had grown to 16. Not long after, they decided they were done with the whole zoo life and made a break for it, settling into the nearby Magdalena River like they’d been there all along.

If you’re wondering why the Colombian government didn’t just send in a few zookeepers to round them up at that point, then you’re seriously underestimating just how much of a handful a wild hippo can be. After elephants and rhinos, hippos are the heaviest land animals on Earth, with adult males tipping the scales at around 1,500 kg, and females not far behind at 1,300 kg. And it’s not just their size that’s the issue: hippos are famously bad-tempered, wildly unpredictable, and considered some of the most dangerous animals in the world. They’ve been known to charge boats for no good reason, and can sprint at speeds of up to 30 km/h on land (which, frankly, is way too fast for something built like a wine barrel on legs).

In 2020, researchers tried to estimate how fast the Colombian hippos were multiplying, and figured there could be about 98 of them roaming along the Magdalena River and its tributaries. But a more recent study involving good old-fashioned head counts, drones, and a few other tracking tricks suggests the real number is actually somewhere between 181 and 215.

Without the usual checks of life in Africa (like predators or droughts), Escobar’s “cocaine hippos” have been thriving, building the largest hippo population outside of their native continent. Read that again: the only place in the world that has more hippos than Colombia right now is Africa. Researchers also found that about a third of the hippos they counted are juveniles, which implies that they’re breeding quickly and enthusiastically. One theory about why this is happening is that the lush Colombian environment is letting them hit sexual maturity earlier than they would back home. Another is that life is just a lot less stressful without so many territorial battles over limited food and space. More grass, less drama, more time for a roll in the proverbial hay.

So what do you do with 200 hippos?

After a few serious hippo attacks on humans in 2020 and 2021, plus a car crash that left a hippo dead on a Colombian highway, scientists are sounding the alarm: something has to be done.

The idea of culling isn’t new. Back in 2009, authorities greenlit the hunting of one adult hippo, nicknamed “Pepe.” But when a photo of Pepe’s body surfaced, it sparked outrage from animal rights groups both locally and internationally. Plans for further culling were quickly shelved, and the hippos were left to their own devices (and reproductive instincts) once more.

Since then, people have been brainstorming alternatives, but none of them are easy, cheap, or particularly foolproof. The current strategy involves firing contraceptive darts at the animals, which sounds promising on paper, but in reality it’s slow, expensive, and has never been attempted at this kind of scale. A modelling study in 2023 estimated that if everything went perfectly, the contraceptive plan could wipe out Colombia’s hippo population in about 45 years, at a minimum cost of $850,000.

Another idea is to sedate them, haul them into helicopters, fly them to facilities, castrate them there, and release them back into the wild. The price tag for this is around $50,000 per hippo, with a generous 52-year timeline. And these numbers are probably optimistic, given that they were calculated before anyone knew just how many hippos were actually out there.

Plenty of researchers are now openly advocating for culling. They argue it’s the fastest, most humane solution, and crucial to protecting Colombia’s native ecosystems. After all, Colombia is the second-most biodiverse country in the world. Losing that to a herd of misplaced hippos (each one of which consumes about 40 kg of vegetation per day) would be a pretty catastrophic twist in the story.

At the time of writing this article, there are still no actionable plans for dealing with Colombia’s cocaine hippos. Deadlines have been announced and committees have been established, but progress is maddeningly slow. And while environmentalists and politicians squabble behind closed doors, the wild hippos of Colombia are doing what they do best: making more hippos.

On the plus side, these hippos don’t seem to have seen Cocaine Bear on Netflix. Let’s hope it stays that way.

About the author: Dominique Olivier

Dominique Olivier is the founder of human.writer, where she uses her love of storytelling and ideation to help brands solve problems.

She is a weekly columnist in Ghost Mail and collaborates with The Finance Ghost on Ghost Mail Weekender, a Sunday publication designed to help you be more interesting. She now also writes a regular column for Daily Maverick.

Dominique can be reached on LinkedIn here.

GHOST BITES (British American Tobacco | Clicks | Copper 360 | Insimbi | Jubilee Metals | PSG Financial Services)

British American Tobacco reaffirms guidance at the AGM (JSE: BTI)

This is despite all the recent noise around tariffs

If you search for the word “tariff” in the chair’s address at the British American Tobacco AGM, you won’t find it. Instead, you’ll find the usual paragraphs of gumph about the company’s commitment to the environment (and it’s remarkable Triple-A rating for its disclosures, indicating what a great corporate citizen this company is).

If you can get past the fact that you’re investing in a wildly harmful product that ESG index providers love based on the aforementioned Triple-A rating, then the guidance for the 2025 financial year will be of relevance to you. Constant currency revenue growth is expected to be just 1%. On the assumption of a 1.5% currency headwind, they indicate adjusted profit from operations up by between 1.5% and 2.5%. The currency situation is a problem though, with an expected impact of 2% on full-year numbers and 3% on half-year numbers. In other words, growth as reported could be close to zero for the year.

The focus, as always, is on delivering free cash flow. Based on the mid-term growth algorithm of 3% to 5% revenue and 4% to 6% in adjusted profit from operations, they expect to generate £50 billion in free cash flow from 2024 to 2030.

The weaker rand does wonders for the local share price, as British American Tobacco is a rand hedge. The share price is up a whopping 50% over 12 months and around 19% year-to-date.


Clicks banks another strong set of numbers (JSE: CLS)

Even UPD put in a better performance this time around

Clicks is one of the most impressive businesses on the local market. People know this, which is why you’ll typically find it trading at a huge Price/Earnings multiple of over 30x.

To support this multiple, we find growth in group turnover of 6.2% and diluted HEPS of 13.2%. As an indication of the cash quality of earnings, the interim dividend was up by 13.3%. Numbers like that are excellent, especially accompanied by return on equity being 200 basis points higher at a massive 46.2%!

Digging deeper, retail turnover growth of 6.4% was supported by solid comparable store turnover growth of 5.4%. If you adjust for Unicorn Pharmaceuticals, which was sold in the prior year, growth was actually 8.3%. That’s a strong number. This performance was further enhanced by a 50 basis points improvement in margin, driven by a greater penetration rate of private label products. Retail costs grew by 8.5% (and 6.0% on a comparable store basis), so retail trading margin was stable at 9.1%.

On the wholesale side, distribution turnover increased by 7.6% as things came right at UPD. Margins were down by 20 basis points though, impacted by modest increases in the single exit price of medicines – a regulatory minefield of note. Distribution costs were only up by 1.6% though, as the base period included major systems implementation costs. This led to trading margin improving by 20 basis points to 2.6%.

As you can see, the retail business runs at much higher margins than the wholesale business, so a relatively stronger performance in retail leads to a better margin mix at group level. Here’s the breakdown of retail sales, to give you a sense of how the different categories perform:

And no, I have no idea why they don’t include the percentage change per line item. I’ve done the maths to save you the irritation of getting the calculator out. The laggards were general merchandise (up 3.7%) and pharmacy (4.1%), while the strong performers were beauty and personal care (7.4%) and especially front shop health (9.1%).

Although general merchandise sales are most at risk in my opinion, given how easy it is to buy similar or competing products anywhere, it’s also the smallest part of retail sales with a contribution of 15.4%. The excellent Clicks rewards system is a defensive underpin here, encouraging shoppers to make general merchandise purchases at Clicks.

In support of the dividend increasing in line with HEPS, net working capital days only increased slightly from 44 days to 45 days. They generated cash from operations of R1.7 billion and had capital expenditure of R222 million. This is about as good an example as you’ll find of a cash cow.

Clicks has noted that a VAT increase will have a negative impact on consumer spending. Despite this, they expect to open 45 – 55 stores and pharmacies for the year, with a medium-term target of reaching 1,200 stores. They expect diluted HEPS to grow by between 11% and 16% for the full financial year.

This is why the share price is now roughly flat for the year, despite all the macroeconomic turmoil. Clicks is a defensive stock, provided they can continue to keep the front shop sales ticking over. For now at least, there’s no reason to believe that they can’t.


Copper 360 has restructured short-term debt into long-term debt (JSE: CPR)

This is a major step for the balance sheet

Copper 360 has restructured short-term debt obligations of R267.6 million. They’ve replaced this debt with long-term debt that has a funding rate linked to changes in the copper price. Although this isn’t great when copper prices go up, as it limits the financial leverage in the business, it does wonders for managing downside risk. In junior mining, it’s all about risk management.

It’s still a much better deal than the immense funding rate of 24.3% per annum on the current debt, which is right up there with personal loans! The restructured debt rate is 11% per annum at current prices and can go as high as 17.4% if copper prices reach $15,000 per tonne. The rate is capped there, so any further price increases would be purely for the benefit of Copper 360. In case you’re wondering, the base price per tonne that delivers the 11% funding cost is $9,652.

In addition to the funding benefit, Copper 360 has managed to extend the term of the debt considerably. The current package has R172.3 million due and payable now, with R15 million due on 31 July this year and the remaining R80.3 million due in February 2026. The new structure repackages all of this into a five-year bond that will be listed on a local exchange.

This is a perfect example of the vibrant local debt market that I discussed with Ian Norden of Intengo Market in a recent podcast.

Insimbi is in a loss-making position (JSE: ISB)

Here’s a good example of how to interpret trading statements

Insimbi previously released a trading statement in which they noted that earnings would drop by at least 20%. Now, as I often remind you, the words “at least” tend to work really hard in these situations. “At least 20%” is the minimum required disclosure under JSE rules, so the move can be a lot higher.

We now have a perfect example of this from the company, with an updated trading statement reflecting a drop in HEPS of “more than 100%” – an acknowledgement that (1) they are now loss-making and (2) they still don’t know to what extent. Clearly, the year ended February was a disaster.

Although some of this has to do with accounting technicalities related to corporate activity, the reality is that the aluminium and steel sectors are in trouble and Insimbi just isn’t sitting on a strong enough balance sheet to make up for it. Detailed results are due on 30 May.


Jubilee Metals released an operational update (JSE: JBL)

If you’re wondering why it sounds so positive, it’s because it only covers South Africa

As I read this announcement, I couldn’t understand why the overall narrative was so positive. After all, it felt like it was just a few months ago when Jubilee Metals was under pressure with disappointing production figures due to power issues in Zambia.

Therein lies the nuance: the latest operational update covers only South Africa. When they talk about being on track to exceed performance targets and all the other positive things in this announcement, be aware that this excludes the problems in Zambia.

So, based on this very flattering way to view the group, chrome production was up 10.7% for the quarter and 26.7% for the nine months year-to-date. On the PGM side, the quarter was up a substantial 34% and the nine months year-to-date view is an increase of 3.6%.

Based on this, production guidance for South Africa has been increased for FY25. Chrome guidance is up from 1.65Mt to 1.85Mt. PGM guidance has increased from 36,000oz to 38,000oz. In the case of chrome, this increase has been driven by the Thutse project. In PGMs, the recently announced joint partnership for excess PGM feed stock has driven the increase.

But as I say, no word on Zambia…


It’s hard to fault PSG Financial Services (JSE: KST)

These are excellent growth numbers

PSG Financial Services released results for the year ended February 2025. They are rather excellent, with recurring HEPS up by 25% and the total dividend up 24%. Return on equity was 26.6%. What’s not to love?

Underpinning this result were metrics like growth in assets under management of 15.7%, along with a 9.2% increase in gross written premium at PSG Insure. These are solid top-line growth drivers, which are then accompanied by cost management practices that leverage these percentage moves into much higher moves in profit. Speaking of costs, the standout spend was in technology and infrastructure (up 18.6%), with fixed remuneration up 6.1%. This isn’t any different to what we are seeing in other financial services businesses. At least PSG is actually growing after spending this kind of money on tech, whereas many others are not.

Importantly, performance fees were 3.7% of headline earnings in this period, up from 2.8% in the comparable period. We can therefore safely conclude that the vast majority of earnings are recurring in nature.

If we dig deeper into divisional performance, PSG Wealth saw recurring headline earnings increase by 14.5%. This is the power of the network of advisors that PSG has built, with an enormous R20.6 billion in positive net inflows in the year.

PSG Asset Management was up 36.9%, with growth in the mid to high teens across assets under management and assets under administration. Once again, there were positive net inflows, something that very few local asset management can point to at the moment.

PSG Insure was the best of the lot, up 41.4%. Although gross written premium growth was “only” 9.2% as mentioned earlier, the underwriting performance was fantastic with a net underwriting margin of 12.7% vs. 9.7% in the prior period. When insurance businesses do well, they do really well.

These strong performances across the board were made even better by a 1% reduction in the weighted average number of shares outstanding, helping to boost HEPS.

Clearly, this is an impressive performance.


Nibbles:

  • Director dealings:
    • Des de Beer bought yet another R19.5 million of shares in Lighthouse Properties (JSE: LTE). Sometimes I wonder what else he buys out there!
    • The CEO of AVI (JSE: AVI) received share awards and sold the whole lot worth R3.92 million.
  • Telemasters (JSE: TLM) renewed the cautionary announcement regarding the approach made by a B-BBEE investor to the two largest existing shareholders in Telemasters. The reason for the cautionary is that if a deal does go ahead here, it would trigger a change of control and mandatory offer to all shareholders.
  • At any point in time, there are various companies undertaking share repurchase program on the market. Montauk Renewables (JSE: MKR) has joined the fray, with the board authorising a program of up to $5 million in shares.
  • The Tongaat Hulett (JSE: TON) business rescue plan achieved an important milestone, with the Competition and Tariff Commission of Zimbabwe approving the transaction with the Vision Parties.
  • Interestingly, Merchantec Capital has resigned as joint sponsor of AYO Technology (JSE: AYO). This leaves Vunani as the company’s sole sponsor.
  • Primeserv (JSE: PMV) is moving its listing to the General Segment of the JSE, as we’ve seen from many other small- and medium-cap companies recently.

Who’s doing what this week in the South African M&A space?

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Vukile Property Fund, through its 99.5% held subsidiary Castellana Properties, has acquired the shopping centre known as Forum Madeira, located in Funchal, Portugal. Vukile will pay DWS Grundbesitz, a German alternative investment fund manager, €72,82 million for the centre. The acquisition will be funded by a combination of existing cash resource and in-country debt of €28 million, representing a loan-to-value ratio of c.38.5%.

Delta Property Fund has disposed of 88 Field Street (88 Joe Slovo) in Durban to Jordisys for a cash consideration of R76 million. The disposal is classified as a category 1 transaction and as such requires shareholder approval.

South African payments infrastructure startup Stitch has raised US$55 million in a Series B round led by QED Investors with participation from Flourish Ventures, Glynn Capital and Norrsken22, joining existing backers Ribbit Capital, PayPal Ventures, firstminute capital and The Raba Partnership. This latest round brings total funding secured since its launch in 2021 to $107 million. The funding will be used to expand in-person payments and further expand the online payments suite with potential acquisitions.

Mergence Investment Managers, a Cape-based, black-owned institutional fund manager and Scalar International, have announced the launch of a US$150 million private equity fund to finance clean energy and digital infrastructure in sub-Saharan Africa. The fund will invest in energy-efficient/decarbonisation projects in the private commercial and industrial (C&I) sector by supporting the emergence of first-tier, indigenous, women- and youth-led companies that are developing new technologies in clean energy solutions and digital infrastructure. At least 25% of the fund’s investment will be into underserved communities.

New GX Capital and RMB Ventures have launched Airnergize Capital Fund I having secured an initial commitment of R2,4 billion (US$120 million). The fund, which is focused on accelerating clean technology solutions in renewable energy, gas and water infrastructure across South Africa, is targeting a final close of R4 billion. Airnergize Capital will be managed by New GX Capital.

Weekly corporate finance activity by SA exchange-listed companies

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In a move to increase its exposure to SA Corporate Real Estate (SAC), Castleview Property Fund acquired a further 274,240,644 SAC shares at an average purchase price of R2.76 per share for an aggregate consideration of R765,9 million. The purchase was executed by way of on-market block trades on the JSE.

Gemfields will seek shareholder approval to issue 556,203,396 new shares to raise c.US$30 million. The rights issue is fully underwritten by Gemfields’ two largest shareholders, Assore International and Rational Expectations. If approved, the shares will be offered at an issue price of 4.22 pence and R1.0686 per new share, on a 10 new shares for every 21 existing shares held basis. Assore and Rational have also entered into pre-funding agreements with Gemfields whereby each will make loans to the company equivalent to their pro-rate entitlement in the rights issue in the amounts of $8,74 million and $4,65 million respectively. The loans will provide an immediate working capital injection pending the completion of the proposed rights issue.

Lighthouse Properties will issue 16,876,042 shares to shareholders receiving the scrip dividend option in lieu of a final cash dividend, resulting in a capitalisation of the distributable retained profits in the company of R126,74 million.

The JSE has advised Wesizwe Platinum shareholders that the company has failed to submit its financial statements within the three-month period stipulated in the JSE’s listing requirements. The company has until the 2 May 2025 to do so failing which its listing may be suspended.

The JSE has approved the transfer of the listing of Primeserv to the General Segment of Main Board with effect from 22 April 2025. The listing requirements in this segment are less onerous for the smaller and mid-cap firms.

This week the following companies repurchased shares:

Montauk Renewables has announced a share repurchase programme to buy back up to US$5 million of the Company’s issued shares, effective immediately and with no date of termination.

Over the period 3 April to 10 April 2025, Invicta repurchased 3,117,193 shares at an average price per share of R30.94. The shares, which represent 3.39% of the shares in issue, will be delisted and cancelled. The R96,43 million paid for the repurchased shares was funded from cash generated from operations. In terms of the general authority granted by shareholders, the company may repurchase a further 11,32 million shares.

On March 6, 2025, Ninety One plc announced that it would undertake a repurchase programme of up to £30 million. The shares will be purchased in the open market and cancelled to reduce the Company’s ordinary share capital. This week the company repurchased a further 680,242 ordinary shares at an average price of 128 pence for an aggregate £872,446.

In its annual financial statements released in August 2024, South32 announced that it would increase its capital management programme by US$200 million, to be returned via an on-market share buy-back. This week 1,070,748 shares were repurchased at an aggregate cost of A$2,92 million.

On 19 February 2025, Glencore plc announced the commencement of a new US$1 billion share buyback programme, with the intended completion by the time of the Group’s interim results announcement in August 2025. This week the company repurchased 14,000,000 shares at an average price per share of £2.56 for an aggregate £35,82 million.

In October 2024, Anheuser-Busch InBev announced a US$2 billion share buy-back programme to be executed within the next 12 months which will result in the repurchase of c.31,7 million shares. The shares acquired will be kept as treasury shares to fulfil future share delivery commitments under the group’s stock ownership plans. During the period 7 April up to and including 11 April 2025, the group repurchased 3,031,404 shares at an average price of €54.15 per share for a total consideration of €164,16 million.

Hammerson plc continued with its programme to purchase its ordinary shares up to a maximum consideration of £140 million. The sole purpose of the buyback programme is to reduce the company’s share capital. This week the company repurchased 222,350 shares at an average price per share of 238 pence for an aggregate £524,567.

In line with its share buyback programme announced in March 2024, British American Tobacco plc this week repurchased a further 521,925 shares at an average price of £31.43 per share for an aggregate £16,4 million.

During the period 7 to 11 April 2025, Prosus repurchased a further 9,604,234 Prosus shares for an aggregate €352,88 million and Naspers, a further 567,607 Naspers shares for a total consideration of R2,43 billion.

Two companies issued profit warnings this week: Gemfields and Insimbi Industrial.

During the week two companies issued cautionary notices: Conduit Capital and TeleMasters.

Who’s doing what in the African M&A and debt financing space?

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Fortuna Mining Corp, a Canadian precious metals company, has entered into an agreement to sell its interest in Roxgold Sanu SA, which owns and operates the Yaramoko Mine, together with the Company’s three other wholly-owned Burkina Faso subsidiaries which hold exploration permits in the West African country, for approximately US$130 million. Upon completion of the transaction, Fortuna will cease to have any operations in Burkina Faso.

Pan-African telecommunications company, AXIAN Telecom, has received a US$100 million financing package from The European Investment Bank. The funding will support the expansion of its mobile broadband network infrastructure across Tanzania and Madagascar – expanding the 4G mobile broadband network infrastructure across the two countries as well as continuing the introduction of 5G coverage. $60 million of the financing will benefit Tanzania and $40 million will go to Madagascar.

Nigerian renewable energy company, Arnergy Solar, has closed an US$18 million Series B investment round led by CardinalStone Capital Advisers Growth Fund. Other participants in the round include British International Investment and existing investors, Norfund, Breakthrough Energy Ventures, EDFI MC, and All On.

Nairobi-based, Purple Elephant Ventures, a venture studio dedicated to African tourism innovation, has secured an additional US$500,000 investment from Alphatron, bringing its total seed round to US$5 million. Alphatron is a Dutch single-family office under the Alphatron Group.

Public Participation: A key element of any public private partnership in Kenya

How are public private partnerships (PPPs) supposed to be entered into? That was the central question that a section of the Kenyan public asked when it emerged last year that the Government had entered into a PPP with Adani Airports Holdings Limited, a subsidiary of the Adani Group, to lease Jomo Kenyatta International Airport for thirty (30) years (the JKIA Deal).

The JKIA Deal was marred by allegations of corruption and bribery, shrouded in secrecy and hurriedly executed. It was also alleged that it violated a number of laws which should guide how PPPs are entered into in Kenya.

While the matter was not determined by the courts on its legality, on 21 November 2024, President Ruto announced that he was cancelling the JKIA Deal, following the indictment in New York of Gautam Adani and his fellow executives in connection with alleged schemes to pay hundreds of millions of dollars in bribes. At the same time, the Government – through the Kenya Electricity Transmission Company (Ketraco) – announced the signing of a power PPP project allowing Adani Energy Solutions, another subsidiary of the Adani Group, to develop and operate transmission lines for thirty (30) years.

Questions have been raised with respect to how this PPP was entered into and, as court proceedings are currently ongoing, it may very well be (as you will see below) that a quashing order is imminent.

Article 227 of the Constitution of Kenya, 2010 (the Constitution) provides that when a state organ or any other public entity contracts for goods or services, it shall do so in accordance with a system that is fair, equitable, transparent, competitive and cost- effective.

Additionally, Article 201 of the Constitution provides that in this process, there shall be openness and accountability, including public participation in financial matters. This requirement is to be read together with Article 10 of the Constitution, which provides that whenever implementing public policy decisions, the Government is bound by the national values and principles, including participation of the people, transparency and accountability.

PPPs under the PPP Act relate to the financing, construction, development, operation or maintenance of infrastructure or development projects.

There are different procurement methods allowed under the PPP Act, including direct procurement, privately initiated proposals (PIPs), competitive bidding, and restricted bidding. Further, the PPP Act mandates certain prequalification procedures mandatory for a contracting authority (defined as any state organ, at any level, intending to have its functions undertaken by a private entity), which include ascertaining the expertise, financial capacity, experience and due diligence checks of the private party before entering into a PPP.

Importantly, direct procurement is only allowed where the private party possesses intellectual property rights to the key approaches to the PPP, and where no reasonable alternative is available, among other reasons. Irrespective, direct procurement requires adherence to certain PPP Act procedures, including issuing a tender document and appointing an evaluation committee.

For PIPs, the PPP Act mandates that they must be subjected to due diligence to confirm that the private party is not corrupt, is not barred from PPPs in any other country, and is solvent. Additionally, PIPs are evaluated under the following four (4) criteria: public interest, project feasibility, the PPP suitability, and affordability. Under the public interest criteria, the views of the public may be sought through public participation.

Competitive bidding, another form of PPP, is more commonplace as it involves an invitation by the contracting authority of tenders, while restricted bidding is only undertaken where the following conditions have been met:

i. where, because of the complex or specialised nature of the work, contracting is restricted to prequalified tenderers;

ii. where the time to consider tenders would be disproportionate to the services;

iii. where there are few known suppliers of the services; and

iv. where an advertisement is placed on the contracting authority’s website regarding the decision to procure in this manner.

Cutting across all these procurement methods is the requirement to ensure that public participation is undertaken on a project. In Erick Okeyo -v- County Government of Kisumu & 2 Others, Petition No.1 “A” of 2014, the High Court – in considering the issue of public participation in tendering process vis PPPs – determined that the Constitution provides for citizen participation in policy formulation, planning and development; effective resources mobilisation and use for sustainable development; project identification, prioritisation, planning and implementation. Consequently, it determined that any policy decision by way of a PPP in which the citizens are not engaged in a meaningful way is constitutionally and legally indefensible.

While interpreting what amounts to effective public participation, the High Court in Robert N. Gakuru & Others v Governor Kiambu County & 3 others [2014] determined that public participation must be real and not illusory. To this end, it was held that for effective public participation to be said to have been undertaken, measures must be taken to facilitate the said public engagement over and above mere publication in government notices or media sites. Consequently, in PPPs, it is expected that the contracting authority must facilitate public engagement on the project over and above the ordinary notices in government gazettes. With respect to the JKIA Deal, this was not undertaken.

As rightly identified by the African Development Bank in its PPP Strategic Framework 2021 – 2031, there are huge infrastructure gaps in African countries, especially in transport, electricity and water supply, which act as impediments to their economic growth. These gaps necessitated investment financing by the private sector to the tune of US$108 billion up until 2025. PPPs can offer a solution to increase investments and efficiencies in public infrastructure while ensuring meaningful returns, financially and socially, for impact investors on the continent.

However, lessons from Kenya show that effective public participation must be undertaken before any PPPs are considered and, therefore, contracting parties must find a way to work around confidentiality requirements in PPP agreements and input conditions precedent requiring the satisfactory completion of effective public participation that pass the muster of constitutional criticism.

Kevin Kipchirchir is an Associate and Njeri Wagacha is a Director | CDH Kenya

GHOST BITES (Quantum Foods | MultiChoice – Santam – Sanlam)

A Quantum leap in earnings (JSE: QFH)

Earnings at the poultry group are much higher than before

In February, Quantum Foods released a voluntary update dealing with the four months to January. It painted a really positive picture, as there were no HPAI (avian flu) outbreaks and there’s been practically zero load shedding. To add to the happier times in the poultry sector, egg selling prices were up.

With so much positivity around the rebuilding of the layer flock and the increase in egg supply, investors were hoping that the strong start to the year would continue. The insert-unavoidable-eggcellent-pun-here news is that this appears to be the case, with HEPS for the six months to March 2024 up by a rather daft 213%.

Percentage moves don’t make much sense once you head above 100%, so it’s better to note that the increase is from 21.7 cents to 68.0 cents.

The operational update was far more detailed than the trading statement, with the company simply noting that the conditions highlighted in the operational update continued for the remaining two months of the interim period.


Santam has concluded the deal for the short-term part of MultiChoice’s insurance business, NMS Insurance Services (JSE: SNT)

You may recall that Sanlam initiated the deal

In the middle of 2024, Sanlam announced that it would be acquiring 60% in MultiChoice’s insurance business (NMS Insurance Services). At the time, the deal was structured with a R1.2 billion upfront payment and R1.5 billion in potential earn-outs. Given the challenges being faced by MultiChoice, this was a very welcome injection of cash.

NMS includes both life insurance and general insurance products. Cleverly, the share class structure was set up in such a way that there are separate classes of shares. This allowed Sanlam to initiate the transaction, before bringing Santam along to buy the general insurance side of the business.

Santam picked up the relevant shares for R925 million and at the time that deal was announced, it was made clear that the prospects for an earn-out on this book are limited. Sanlam therefore ended up with an initial net outflow of R275 million, plus a large potential earn-out.

None of this is new information. The only new part is that Santam and Sanlam have now implemented the deal, which means that they are both on the register alongside MultiChoice.


Nibbles:

  • Director dealings:
    • The results of the Lighthouse Properties (JSE: LTE) scrip dividend are in! Unsurprisingly, Des de Beer picked up a vast number of shares in the process, with a scrip dividend worth R31 million. There were three other directors who picked up shares in this way, albeit to a much lower extent with an aggregate value of R2.4 million.
    • A non-executive director of BHP Group (JSE: BHG) bought shares worth R517k.
    • The spouse of an executive director of Brimstone (JSE: BRT) bought shares worth R240k.
  • Super Group (JSE: SPG) announced that the Supreme Court of New South Wales has approved the scheme of arrangement related to the deal for SG Fleet. This is the last major step before the scheme becomes effective, with a planned implementation date of 30 April. Goodness knows that Super Group needed this one, given the challenges elsewhere in the group.
  • SA Corporate Real Estate (JSE: SAC) released an announcement that Cervantes Investments (Pty) Ltd now holds 12.86% in the company. That sounds very much like the percent now held by Castleview Property Fund (JSE: CVW) based on their announcement, so I’m pretty sure Cervantes is part of Castleview.

Ghost Stories #60: Debt markets – the other side of the coin

Listen to the show using this podcast player:

Intengo Market is a revolutionary independent digital marketplace for debt instruments in South Africa. Incubated by RMB in 2020 and having launched as a standalone business in 2024, the platform is growing to improve the market for all participants through outcomes like increased liquidity and price discovery. You can look forward to receiving insights into the debt market in South Africa from Intengo in months to come.

In this podcast, we covered topics like:

  • Why is the debt market so important?
  • For what reason would a company or state-owned enterprise go the route of public debt markets?
  • What are the trends in public vs. private debt markets?
  • How does Intengo play a role in price discovery, debt raising strategies and the associated processes?
  • What role do ratings agencies play in this ecosystem?

If you’re ready to learn about debt markets, you’re in the right place.

Debt arrangers, advisors, treasurers, CFOs and debt investors who want to learn more about Intengo Market can visit the website here.

Full transcript:

Intengo Market is a revolutionary independent digital marketplace for debt instruments in South Africa. Incubated by RMB in 2020 and having launched as a standalone business in 2024, the platform is growing to improve the market for all participants through outcomes like increased liquidity and price discovery. You can look forward to receiving insights into the debt market in South Africa from Intengo in months to come.

The Finance Ghost: Welcome to this episode of the Ghost Stories podcast, coming to you in a week that has been absolutely bonkers in equity markets. I’m actually quite excited to be talking about a completely different point on the capital stack. We are not talking about equity today; we are talking about debt.

It’s going to be super interesting. We’ve got Ian Norden on the call. He is the founder and CEO of Intengo Market and if you look on their website, they call themselves a corporate debt marketplace using a digital platform to revolutionise how corporate debt instruments are issued and traded in South Africa. Very nice, Ian. Luckily we are going to spend the next half an hour or so explaining what that actually is and how debt works in South Africa, because this is a side of the public markets that I think most investors have had very little exposure to and they don’t really see it unless they read every SENS announcement – or Ghost Bites for that matter – and they see stories about companies raising debt, etc.

But if you haven’t seen any of that, then I think there’s going to be a lot of new stuff for you on this podcast – and if you are listening to this as someone who is already in the debt space, then I think Ian’s insights are going to be fantastic. So, Ian, thank you for joining this podcast and for doing this with me. It’s going to be a fun one.

Ian Norden: Hi Ghost. Yes, I’m looking forward to it. Thanks for having me here.

The Finance Ghost: Look, I see you’ve got your fintech startup golf shirt and you’ve got your very cool coffee shop noise-cancelling headphones, which means that the business must be doing very well! This is the surefire sign – if you were dressed up in a fancy shirt and you didn’t have the headphones, because you only work in an office and not in a coffee shop, I’d be quite worried about the future of this business. I’d be very worried that you might be out there just focusing on, I don’t know, LinkedIn webinars as opposed to actually doing successful things.

Ian Norden: Yeah, I think the biggest shift in moving from banking to fintech is the wardrobe change.

The Finance Ghost: There we go.

Ian Norden: You have to live your brand.

The Finance Ghost: 100%, there it is. So, we’re going to talk about the brand, but I think before we do that, we’re definitely going to talk about just the overarching picture here, the umbrella story, which that most people listening to this podcast are I’m sure very familiar with – the equity side of the JSE and of other exchanges worldwide for that matter. That’s been in all the headlines this week really, is what’s happening in equity markets. And this is where you’ll find the shares that you know and you love and a few that might have hurt you, especially in the last couple of weeks. Really, it’s been a bit wild!

But the market also has this vibrant debt side where companies go and obtain funding from public markets in the form of debt. They do stuff like domestic medium term note programmes and you also have state owned enterprises that raise debt through much the same way.

Just how big and important is this side of the market, Ian? This somewhat hidden side that a lot of retail investors don’t actually know much about?

Ian Norden: Ghost, that’s a great intro to it. I think as you said, is probably not as public in terms of the retail side, but from an importance perspective, certainly a very important part of the capital structure of most companies. And then if you look at, just globally, look at governments, look at the debt issues the US are having for example, and South Africa’s got a lot of debt so certainly debt’s not going away and companies are no different.

We can talk a little bit more about how they’re raising debt and maybe some of the shifts we’re seeing in the market. But as a tool, I think it’s been around for a long time and it’s not going anywhere.

The Finance Ghost: What sort of numbers are we talking here? I mean this is billions and billions and billions and billions and billions, right? To quote the man who’s currently making the world a bit of a crazy place, it’s many, many billions of rands that are happening out there when you see these note programmes and all these debt issuances, right?

Ian Norden: Yeah. So a note programme – maybe to jump ahead – when you register a note programme with one of the exchanges, you do have to set a limit and it’s hopefully a limit you don’t hit. But generally these limits are in the R5 to R10 billion range per corporate. These aren’t banks who would have much bigger – I think R100 billion could be some of the bank limits. To put it into perspective, we’re probably servicing through our platform about 30% of the market in terms of new corporate and non-government issues. We’ve seen about R160 billion of debt come through in the last three years. So if you proxy that out, you could probably say the market is roughly about that per annum – R150, R160 billion of debt. And again, that’s just in the listed space. Something we need to talk to as well as the difference between private and public debt, because there’s certainly been a big shift in that space too.

The Finance Ghost: Yeah, absolutely. I remember in the early days of Ghost Mail I wrote – back when it was weekly – I wrote this piece about how the debt:equity ratio for a business is a bit like when you go to the beach and you’re getting a soft serve and then you pick two of the flavours and you got to get the mix just right, otherwise you have a problem. And if you put too much ice cream on top of the cone and it can’t support it, then you have an even bigger problem. I think that analogy still rings true today.

Companies, treasurers, CFOs – they’re constantly trying to just optimise the way they have funded their business. And when people refer to the capital stack, they’re talking to all the different ways that you can fund a company. Obviously you’ve got equity at one extreme, which is the most expensive way to do it. People who have studied finance will understand that. But for those who haven’t, it’s not to say that oh, it has the highest interest rate – equity doesn’t have an interest rate! It pays dividends and it’s not forced to pay dividends. So what does it mean to say the cost is higher there than in debt?

The reason is that an equity investor expects a higher return than a debt investor. There’s dilution of your existing shareholders when you go and issue equities. A lot of JSE listed companies trade at a discount to their net asset value in many cases. They go and they issue equity and it turns out to be quite an expensive way to raise funding.

So then, what are their options? And this is when you start to move down the capital stack effectively and you find stuff like mezzanine finance. You don’t see that too often in the public space. To your point, that’s more like private markets, a private equity kind of thing. But what you do see is a lot of companies raising debt through these programmes and then raising from banks, for example. Stuff like term loans, revolving credit facilities, similar sort of structures. Why do these two different things exist? Why is there a public debt market as opposed to just going and knocking on the door of your local bank and saying, hey, we need a few billion in debt?

Ian Norden: That’s a great question because as you said, there are immediate cost benefits of raising debt. I think if we park the – one of the overarching common traits of debt is that it is tax deductible, we’ll park that as a common feature and look at interest in the debt space.

What are your options? Maybe it’s useful to talk about the evolution of a corporate’s journey. So you might start out, as you’ve said, with some equity. You might raise that from friends and family or angel investors. You might then IPO if you grow to scale or raise more money through different private equity models. But when you get to debt, you generally start your journey with a relationship bank. And that bank will lend you money from time to time with a business loan. As you grow, that might become a revolving credit facility as you say, which is really a facility similar to a listed programme where you can draw down on it from time to time.

Then, you might have a GBF or bank guaranteed facility, where it’s essentially the same but just for longer-term debt. And then you might get to a point where the bank says, hang on, I actually can’t lend you any more money because from a credit line perspective I’ve hit my limit. So then what you do is in South Africa specifically – we have four or five very large banks relative to others and relative to other markets – what you might do is then go to those other banks and essentially wash, rinse, repeat, do the same thing.

And then as you continue to grow, and let’s use real estate investment trusts as a good example, they also need lots of debt to buy lots of properties and they are probably the most active in the listed space. Those entities would say right now what I need is I need more debt, and I need it from different sources because I’ve hit my limits with the banks. Then it gets interesting, because now there’s a cost to this. The next stage might be to say, well, I’m doing a specific project, so I’m going to go raise project finance from maybe a life insurance origination team who has an interest in a property deal that’s very long-term because they want to match their long-term retirement liabilities that they’ve got to their clients. You could look at project finance or project bonds or structured bonds. Those obviously need expertise. You have to pay someone to help you do that.

But if you can get to a point where your business doesn’t need structured debt, it can just raise money off the strength of its balance sheet. Then a listed programme becomes quite attractive because you’re immediately going to diversify across a range of different investors.

And this is public – we can talk to who actually can and does buy debt on the market. It becomes a public offering of sorts. You can tap asset managers, you can tap life insurers, you can tap high-net worth individuals if you want. What’s nice about these is they all have different hurdle rates. Where a bank would have a cost of capital, often set by regulation – Basel 3 or Basel 2 or whatever the current Basel is – that will almost set a floor for how low a bank can lend you money, regardless of how strong your credit worthiness is, where an asset manager doesn’t have that or a life insurer will have different regulation. You can start tapping into those nuances of the market and hopefully when you add an element of competitiveness to the process, you can bring down your cost of funding.

So in theory, you get low interest rates, not always the case, but you certainly get greater flexibility and diversification. You can also raise longer-term debt. As I mentioned, some of the players might be more interested in longer-term debt than shorter-term debt.

Generally to help you through this journey, you’d bring an arranger on board, which is traditionally the – some of the big banks do that, but there are smaller houses that will help you – because you need someone to guide you through this process and understand what it is you’re trying to do.

Maybe as an aside, one of the best benefits of debt versus equity is you’re not diluting ownership. Coming to public markets, you actually do have companies that would have just have listed debt and not have listed equity, because the reasons they’re looking for is maybe they don’t need capital from a fundraising perspective in that sense, and they don’t want to elude ownership, but they do need debt diversification. It’s a very interesting area and I think very different to the way equity operates.

The Finance Ghost: Yeah, it’s interesting. You referenced earlier that the property funds are so active in the space and that’s because of the way these REIT structures work where they basically need to continuously be distributing their profits at the end of the day. This is very different to a company that say, hangs onto its profits. We did Berkshire Hathaway recently in Magic Markets Premium, and that’s just a fascinating example because they’ve paid one dividend ever. That’s Warren Buffett’s famous company, one ever. The rest is all reinvested in the group.

There’s lots of debt. They use debt, obviously they use a variety of notes, etc. but I don’t think you’re going to see Berkshire Hathaway doing any capital raises on the equity side anytime soon because they can hang onto all of their dividends and they can reinvest it accordingly. Some companies are not in that boat. The property sector, as I’ve mentioned, right up there, so you’ll often see the REITs doing a combination of equity raises and then debt raises.

What is actually quite interesting is the equity raises in their business are inevitably for expansion. It’s like, hey, we want to go buy new properties, hence we need to go and raise equity. And then they will still need to raise debt in that example because they’ll always make sure they’re doing a debt:equity split that gets the property returns up. But even if they don’t go and buy new properties, they need to keep rolling their debt. They need to go and raise new debt as old debt comes off the books, effectively.

It’s quite a vibrant market because debt capital is not forever. Yes, it can be quite long-term and you’ve talked about how investors like pension funds or insurers are looking to match liabilities. That’s all very interesting and it’s absolutely right. But it can’t be forever. Debt cannot be infinite. So it just keeps rolling, and this leads to this very, very vibrant market where there’s always activity and in some cases perhaps more vibrant than equities.

So, do we see the same sort of trend on the debt markets that we see on the equity side? We’re always talking about delistings on the JSE. The London Stock Exchange has got almost exactly the same problem as the JSE, it’s actually really interesting. People think it’s only the JSE – it’s not! London is cut and paste effectively.

On the debt side, is it a similar issue, or is it actually growing? Is it just getting bigger and better all the time?

Ian Norden: I think on the listed side, it’s the same. You have to look at, and this is where I touched on earlier, private credit and public debt and what the market will call private credit is essentially debt from the borrower’s perspective. So what we have is we’ve got certain industries like you’ve mentioned, like the REITs, who have a continuous need and there’s structural efficiency in setting up a REIT to raise debt in that way. But then you’ve got other companies who are saying, I can raise private credit from a lot of these same players now, and I can achieve a lot of the same goals with a fraction of the operational and regulatory costs.

If we pull back to some of the systemic trends in the market, there have been over the last few years, a couple of incidents, let’s say, that have triggered some outcry from some of the larger investors, institutional investors, saying there’s not enough governance in the debt space. And so, for example, to be a director of a company that issues debt had a different standard to be a director of a company who has public debt and public equity.

The question would be why?

And so if you’re not getting the governance protection of listed debt as a lender, and you’re not getting a lot of the benefits from a lender’s perspective, this is on a regulated exchange and the exchange has almost a duty of care to make sure that the assets is coming from a reputable place. When those start breaking down and we’ve had one or two incidents, which I won’t go into, then people start questioning, well, is this worth it?

So what a lot of the asset managers and institutions do is they will have origination teams in-house and they will start looking for private deals which would normally only fall to a bank. Now you go back to the reasons for setting up a listed programme and you say, well, I was previously setting this up because I wanted to access these people, but now they’re phoning me anyway. That’s happening globally. I think if you then add technology onto that and you say, well, private debt is traditionally opaque, hard to find, you can now set up a bulletin board or think of Facebook marketplace for debt instruments and you can post this and people can see these deals now.

Again, there might be some hurdles you have to overcome to get the deal from person A to person B, but with technology and even things like the Electronic Communications Act, allowing for the electronic signing of things on a computer screen, those barriers are breaking down.

There are myriad other reasons. It’s an incredibly fascinating space at the moment. But there is a global shift from public to private and that’s certainly something that I think is not going to change. But in saying that, locally we have seen, I’d say post-Covid, we have seen a steady uptick in certainly the number of issuers. I think in the corporate space we’re seeing the usual suspects come to market. There’s an element of loyalty as well that the issuers will give to their lenders to say, look, I’m going to be something you can invest in continuously that drives some of the repeat business.

Obviously people aren’t going to borrow money for the sake of it. But certainly in the public space, you also want to make sure that when you do need money, you’re not coming to market and they go, who are you again? You know, what’s your credit story? We haven’t seen you for three, four years!

Capitec is actually a very good example in that space because they generally don’t need a lot of cash on their balance sheet. They’re very cash positive business in terms of the way they’re structured as a bank and their clients. But they come to market once a year to make sure that if they ever do need cash from the public market through their debt programme, there’s been a recent auction which is a recent price anchor and there’s familiarity with the lending base. As you’re gathering from this, many reasons to be in the public space. Individually, certain companies will probably always be in the public space, but systematically, they’re shifting.

The Finance Ghost: Super interesting, right? Because it’s quite a challenge for the banks in that they’ve now got these insurance companies coming and trying to eat their lunch on the debt market – ultimately private debt market that is – and well, in some respects public. But it sounds like traditionally, by the time a company gets to the public markets, it’s typically because banks have kind of tapped out, whereas this is something different. This is to say, hey, instead of going to a big bank, why don’t you raise from some kind of asset manager, for example, or pension fund or insurance house?

It’s interesting because banks should have such a low cost of capital because they’re raising deposits, they’re paying very little on things like current accounts, etc. But they obviously have a blended cost of funding across all kinds of things, including their own wholesale debt. And the insurance houses, I guess are looking at this and saying, well, we’re quite happy actually for our policyholders etc. to go and get these kind of returns over time. So you create this beautiful free market that we all know and love, where what will happen is what will happen over time.

I’m interested in how Intengo fits into this ecosystem then. Are you only focused on the public debt side? Are you focused a little bit on the private debt side as well? How does Intengo actually fit into this rather exciting world?

Ian Norden: Yeah, thanks for asking that. We’re obviously excited about what we’re doing, so it’s always great to talk about that. At our core, we are helping grease the wheels. So we are helping – a bank team, for example, would take a large issuer through a journey of raising debt. And that process, if you think of it almost as like mini-IPOs every time, but you generally don’t IPO once every three months. But some corporates might raise debt once every three months, so there needs to be a workflow system that that makes that process as seamless as possible and as cost effective as possible. So, preserve the integrity of the process, minimize risks and decrease costs.

To talk through the process, if you are bringing a new company to market, whether it’s a repeat of their programme – let’s maybe go back to bringing a new company. You need to set up a program. You bring some lawyers in, you have a sponsor, you go to one of the exchanges, most of them do debt now, and you then set up a programme for your client. That client then wants to raise money. Where Intengo can help is we can do things like saying these are particularly good days of the year to raise money. If we think about the investor universe, these lenders, if they are asset managers, a lot of their liquidity is coming from their existing instruments, the existing holdings. So we can say to the market through our analytics tools, we can say to the bank and to the corporate, this is a good day because this is a day when a government bond, for example, is paying a coupon and many investors are going to have cash that day.

We want to increase your chances of success. We want to increase competition. And increased competition should mean tighter pricing and a lower cost of funding. So that’s one side where we use some of our analytics tools.

But again, it’s an add on to the workflow because the workflow is then right, I want to create an auction. Our tool is an easy-to-use wizard where you can set parameters. This is the data I want. Whether you use our help or not, this is the structure I want. Do I want three-year or five-year? We’ve got many years of data at a very granular level. We can tell you what the market’s currently in favour of. Are they in favour of seven-year, five-year, three-year? If you are indifferent, you can at least have the best, most informed decision as to where to start.

Then we can also do things like relative pricing curves, because a five-year debt instrument should, because of the yield curve being upward sloping normally, be cheaper than seven-year debt. But is it? Absolutely. Is it relatively cheaper? To what? To what curve? We can overlay our own estimation of what we think fair value is for each corporate issuer. And those are also very useful for corporates to say, okay, this is roughly where I might price. This is where the different terms of debt are pricing and maybe where I should target my fundraise. The next phase would be, as I mentioned, this formal offering.

So in South Africa, most exchanges run what’s called the Dutch auction process. That process is where let’s say there are 30 institutions out there who bid in this primary auction, they want to get a piece of your debt. You come into market, you’ve said you’re going to raise a billion rand, your Sasol for example, that billion rand – essentially think of it as a bucket. And the first asset manager will say, I will lend to you at 7%. And the next one will say I’ll lend you at 7.2%. And whoever says the level that fills that bucket – let’s say first asset manager, simple example, R500 million at 7%. Second asset manager, R500 million at 7.2%. Everyone gets 7.2%. The bucket is full at 7.2% and everyone gets that number.

That’s a Dutch auction. It does mean that if the issuer decides, hang on, I’m just going to take R500 million, the price of the debt is significantly cheaper. Suddenly it would be 7%. There is an element of supply and demand that can affect pricing, which we can go into. But again, that process of receiving those bids and ranking them and finding an optimal outcome for the issuer is also one of the tools we offer. We don’t do it – we offer it as a tool to the bank arranger and the corporate so they can have a very interesting discussion during an auction as opposed to working out the maths behind okay, which bids should I take?

It is much more complicated than that. Some corporates might say, I don’t want to borrow from banks because banks already lend to me and I want to preserve my credit lines. As we’ve mentioned, this is one of the reasons you might want to go to public markets. We also need to easily identify which are the banks coming into an auction because they’re also welcome to participate. And we can also show the arranger quite easily who the banks are. We can show certain ratios. You can set targeted ratios to say I want max 30% bank exposure, I want max three-year debt of this and five-year debt of that. I’m massively oversimplifying the bid process, but that’s really where our tool earns its stripes.

The Finance Ghost: Yeah, I think anything complicated can be explained simply. Whether it can be executed simply is something different. I always think if someone can explain something to make it sound simple, it’s because they actually understand it. So, well done on that.

What I do want to just make absolutely clear, also for myself and for anyone listening, it sounds like your client is effectively the treasurer, the CFO, the arranger, the corporate financier, basically on the issuer side of that fence, as opposed to the investor side of that fence. Is that a reasonable summary of how you operate?

Ian Norden: Yeah, I think the market is an ecosystem. As you see on our website, we do talk to two or three different clients. At the core the issue is the client, but they’re very well serviced by the bank arranger. And not just the bank – I say bank arranger, there are other arrangers that aren’t banks – so by the debt arranger, we see the debt arranger as our core client in that regard.

If we can service the debt arranger very well, they can offer a very good service to their corporate clients. We very rarely have direct issuer clients that aren’t brought to us through an arranger. However, there is an option on our platform to self-arrange. Obviously, you then have to sell your own credit and sell your own story. Arranging teams have a distribution function and I think those are very valuable. We position ourselves as a fintech enablement platform, not a disruptive platform. We’re not trying to take someone out of the equation, we’re trying to enable those in the current functions that they’re in to have a more efficient, easier time of it.

If you look at the investor side, investors have many ways to bid on these auctions, whether it’s primary or secondary trading. They can use the phone, they can use Bloomberg, they can use WhatsApp, email, however they choose. We don’t see ourselves as the only way to do it, but certainly another use of our analytics is to offer insights to the investors into what’s trending, what’s pricing well, what’s not pricing well. And by building our own models, we can be an independent voice on what we think the fair value of an asset might be, because there are a lot of supply and demand factors that affect bond prices that might be driven by a certain event, but don’t essentially affect the underlying fair value of the instrument.

The Finance Ghost: Ian, thanks, I think that helps a lot in terms of just setting the scene of who you are really looking to talk to. I think just another point of clarification, also just for me to understand, private companies that are looking to raise debt from interesting places and I think there are quite a few of these, if they’re looking to not necessarily do a listed program, but they want to just have a look in the market at who they should speak to, who are the investors who would invest in notes of this tenure and maybe this credit rating, for example, would that also be an example of your kind of client?

I know that’s probably a bit left field for you, maybe a bit small, but do you also have those sort of clients, the boutique corporate finance houses advising these clients?

Ian Norden: No, we do. I think we’ve grown organically, certainly this year – the last three months, our biggest growth has been in smaller companies coming through, smaller arrangers who’ve gotten wind of us. I think what’s also helped is that the cost of, if we talk about listing a DMTN program on a one of the exchanges, some of the upfront cost is legal. Paying a lawyer to draft a programme memorandum, which is essentially your governing terms and conditions of the program, that cost has come down significantly. You could probably get away with R400,000 or R500,000 now, where it used to be a couple of million a few years ago. I don’t know if that’s cheap for every company, but relatively it’s not a lot of money for some of the bigger companies.

So, to answer your question, if a small company has debt as a priority and we’re seeing some of them come through now, it’s not a big cost because the long-term benefit of setting a program would be significant. If those companies want to come and try and approach private credit providers, I think from experience the best place would be approach a private credit arranging team. And there are lots of them. I don’t want to name any because I’ll alienate someone and they are all potential clients, if not clients. But there are certainly ways to access the private credit markets and get good advice. I think it is important that you do seek advice in this space, even as a large corporate, because there are nuances to raising debt, private or public.

The Finance Ghost: Yeah, absolutely, and that’s why I think this is such an interesting partnership to bring into the Ghost Mail ecosystem, because what you do is so different actually to a lot of other players in the market ultimately, and so focused on debt. It really is such an important source of capital for South African entities, full stop.

And for South African investors, even though typically people are getting exposure to this through their pension funds, for example, or you can go and buy these bond funds, and then they often have a mix of government bonds and corporate bonds as well – so some people do have exposure to this kind of stuff. But, as a retail investor, you’re not going to go and bid directly on a corporate bond on the market in all likelihood. It’s quite big numbers that these things tend to change hands at.

What we will also do in months to come is I think we’ll get some pretty interesting insights from you around this broader debt space. I want to maybe touch on just one other element of it as we start to bring this to a close, which is just the way that ratings agencies work in this ecosystem, because those words, “junk status”, are unfortunately well known to many South Africans who actually have no reason to know it other than because they understand our country’s economic situation. So it’s just one of those things, junk status should not be a relatively household term. It’s an unfortunate situation when it is.

How do these ratings agencies actually add value to this debt ecosystem? And then how different are the costs of debt at these different debt levels? Is that really – you talk about how you grease the wheels in the space. It feels like sometimes the rating agencies are the cars and the wheels and almost the entire story, really?

Ian Norden: Yeah. Junk status, certainly on the face of it, a scary term, probably worth starting with a nuance of credit ratings in that there’s an international view of a company, of a government, and there’s a local view, and every ratings agency will have a mapping table.

So if we look in South Africa, the sovereign government is risk-free because they can just print more money. If you lend to the SA government or any entity they guarantee, they can – whether they will or not is another question – but they can print more rand to pay back that debt. When they raise money overseas in dollars, they can’t do that. They can’t print dollars. They don’t have the dollar press. It sits obviously with the United States.

That is where a global scale might come in and say, South Africa’s junk. I think for the purposes of this discussion and we can maybe go into the global sphere in the future – but for today, if we look at South Africa, everyone then is relatively rated off South Africa. So we go and say, right, South Africa as a government is AAA, what is everything else below that? And then we have a local scale. Certainly in South Africa they are still junk bonds and a junk bond is generally regarded as something that’s uninvestable. You wouldn’t really be putting it into a credit fund that doesn’t have that mandate to be taking big risk. That risk is that you might lose your capital because most of the asset managers out there, they’re offering a balanced fund or a money market fund as a relatively safe haven relative to equities. We only have to look at the last five days to understand the chaos in equity markets with tariffs – they didn’t have the same effects certainly on local bond yields that they had a muted effect on US treasuries for example. But that’s one of the benefits of debt versus equity, is hopefully low volatility and a little bit less correlation.

On a rating side then, you have to look at what’s happened in the last 20 years. And it’s scary to think it was 17 years ago now because I was, well, alive and active in the market. But the financial crisis happened and the financial crisis, I think one of the biggest changes it made to the debt space was it removed a bit of a reliance, a blind reliance on ratings agencies. So some people – I remember doing an open top bus tour of New York and they still teased that AIG was responsible for the financial crash and the insurance companies. But it was also linked to the ratings agencies saying: this is AAA, we think it’s risk free, go and buy it. And again, we won’t comment on whether that was right or wrong, but what happened was a lot of the asset managers locally and globally in-housed their own credit expertise. Now what you find is a large asset manager will certainly look to a rating and say, well, there’s some guidance there and there’s certainly value in having companies be rated. But from a reliance perspective, they’ll have their own teams. They’ll then do the credit work, they’ll come up with their own credit spread, which is a proxy for the riskiness of the bond and they will then use that as their best estimate and rather use the rating as a second check. Whereas I think previously it was the other way around.

So ratings certainly have a place. A rating, when you list a programme, shows on a fundamental balance sheet and company strength analysis that someone’s come in and done some good due diligence on your company and it’s got a relative strength. But from a day-to-day perspective, we must remember companies aren’t being rated every day, so they have to just be another tool in the market. I don’t think they must be the only tool.

The Finance Ghost: I think this has been a really interesting podcast. Thank you. I do have to chuckle slightly in that if anyone could hear a bit of background noise, it’s actually because as much as Ian has got these wonderful noise-cancelling coffee shop headphones, they were not designed for window cleaning behind him with this beautiful view over Cape Town in the building he’s currently in. That was not in the startup design spec! They didn’t think about fancy windows getting cleaned behind there. So maybe next time, we’ll have to do it from a coffee shop – you can go full fintech on us and the noise cancelling will work. It’s just mildly funny. There are a lot of windows there and of course this was the window that was getting cleaned during the podcast.

But I always enjoy these things because they actually – that’s just part of the game, right? I try not to actually take them out because they almost – it’s just…

Ian Norden: …it wouldn’t be a talk about the markets, you know Ghost, if we didn’t have a black swan event, would it really be a talk about the markets?

The Finance Ghost: There we go. 100%. What I can tell you is the risk of that one window being the one getting cleaned right now is surely higher than some of these corporate bonds falling over. I think we’ll leave it there. We’re going to see more and hear more from Intengo in Ghost Mail in months to come as you bring insights into this debt market to the audience. And for those who have listened to this and gone, that’s interesting, we’re active in the debt market, we want to understand more about how Intengo can help us, what is the right way to get hold of you?

Ian Norden: I think the simplest is to go to our website as you mentioned, intengomarket.com, we have a contact us button that’s actively managed, that mailbox. Alternatively, drop me a mail at ian@intengomarket.com very simple. And yeah, we look forward to engaging with yourself, Ghost and your listeners more over time. Thank you.

The Finance Ghost: Brilliant. Thanks, Ian. And we look forward to that. Ciao.

Ian Norden: Thanks.

For more information, visit intengomarket.com.

GHOST BITES (Castleview – SA Corporate Real Estate | Remgro | Schroder European Real Estate)

Castleview ups its stake in SA Corporate Real Estate (JSE: CVW | JSE: SAC)

Western Europe really isn’t offering much excitement at the moment

Castleview Property Fund, which owns a controlling stake in Emira Property Fund (JSE: EMI), also clearly likes the look of SA Corporate Real Estate. In February this year, they announced that they had bought derivatives referencing the underlying shares, as well as a direct stake of shares to the value of R139 million.

The latest news is that they have sold derivatives and bought more direct shares to the value of R756 million. This is buying the dip at scale, with the latest purchase being at R2.76 per share vs. the initial purchase at R2.85 per share.

The two purchases combined represent 323 million shares. Based on the number of issued shares at SA Corporate Real Estate, this puts them on roughly a 12.5% stake in the fund (ignoring the derivatives, which I’ve gotta tell you are pretty light on details in the announcement).

The thing that I don’t understand is why we haven’t seen a SENS announcement from SA Corporate Real Estate as of yet. Whenever a shareholder moves through a 5% ownership threshold, there should be an announcement…


Remgro is on a charm offensive (JSE: REM)

It’s just a pity that they are obsessed with dividends

Remgro hosted a capital markets day and made the presentations available online. If you want to dig into them in detail, you’ll find them here.

The best slide for me is this one:

Essentially, Remgro is pointing out that they are in much better shape than they were before the pandemic, yet the discount to the INAV is much higher than it was before. Sentiment towards investment holding companies is really poor on the JSE, not helped by the likes of African Rainbow Capital and their plan to delist at a significant discount to INAV, supported by a valuation from an independent expert. As an investor, it’s hard to look at something like this and conclude that these discounts will close.

Something that would help a lot would be for Remgro to scrap the dividend and focus entirely on buybacks at this discount to INAV. That would be the textbook route to take from a capital allocation perspective. I suspect that there are major shareholders who have gotten so used to the Remgro dividend that this simply isn’t an option. Still, even if there’s some short-term volatility in the share price as dividend-focused investors try to exit, I’m quite sure that there would be enough buyers who would be encouraged by this superior capital allocation strategy.

Instead, we have to suffer through one slide that proudly shows the dividend growth:

Followed immediately by this one that makes it sound like you need a world-famous detective to figure out what the discount to INAV refuses to close:

Two words: share buybacks. Do more share buybacks! Sigh.

Don’t hold your breath, as this slide (including my annotation of the key block) makes it very clear that not prioritising the cash dividend would be a “betrayal of the fundamental tenet” at Remgro. Why not just rename it to Remcash then, as clearly that’s the priority?

Moving on from my capital allocation frustrations, I must note that with 26% of the portfolio sitting in healthcare, it’s perhaps not surprising that this was a major focus area. The capital markets day presentation was accompanied by a financial update from Mediclinic, where USD-denominated revenue grew 5% and adjusted EBITDA margin expanded from 14.7% to 15.0%. Yay for that – finally some decent numbers coming from hospital groups!

The suite of presentations also includes one on Remgro Infrastructure – and specifically CIVH, the company with which Vodacom has been trying to do a fibre deal that the competition authorities don’t like. The hearing in the Competition Appeal Court has been set for 22 to 24 July, with an expected ruling by September 2025. Just in case the deal doesn’t go ahead, management outlined their strategy going forward and the potential for return on investment to move significantly higher as fibre penetration rates increase.

For me, until share buybacks become a larger priority than cash dividends, I have no interest in holding shares in Remgro.


Schroder’s portfolio valuations are still dropping (JSE: SCD)

Western Europe really isn’t offering much excitement at the moment

In the same way that people tend to lump Africa together as though all the countries are similar (clearly a huge mistake), many investors treat “Europe” as one place. This couldn’t be further from the truth. The growth prospects in Poland and Portugal definitely aren’t the same as in France or Germany for that matter.

Schroder European Real Estate Trust is a useful way to see that in practice. The fund releases quarterly valuation updates and the direction of travel usually seems to be down. Sure enough, the latest quarter reflects a like-for-like decrease of -0.3% over the quarter, with the industrial portfolio helping to mitigate much of the pain.

The segmental movements are important, with industrial up 1.8% (a combination of rental growth and more supportive valuation yields), while office fell by 0.9%. The silver lining for the offices is that at least they fell by much less than in the previous quarter, when they were down 2.4%.

There’s only one retail asset left in the fund, so looking at the 2% decrease in value in that asset and drawing any broader conclusions about the asset class would be foolish, particularly as the decrease is mainly due to the shorter remaining lease term.

Given the automotive sector troubles, I was pretty surprised to see that the valuation of the Cannes car showroom was unchanged. These are specialist properties and I don’t think many people have positive sentiment towards this sector at the moment.

The fund will be changing valuers from Knight Frank to Savills with effect from the end of June. Before you get suspicious, a “shadow valuation” by Savills has shown a consistent valuation with the numbers that Knight Frank has been achieving. They attribute the change in service provider to best practice and governance, in the same way that you would want to see an auditor rotation.


Nibbles:

  • Director dealings:
    • Des de Beer bought another R7.5 million worth of shares in Lighthouse Properties (JSE: LTE). I’m quite sure he was a major participant in the scrip distribution, although we have to wait for confirmation of that. Separately, Lighthouse confirmed that holders of roughly 47% of eligible shares chose the scrip dividend alternative, so more than half of shareholders preferred the cash.
    • The CEO bought R510k worth of shares in Ascendis Health (JSE: ASC). This purchase was matched by Calibre Investment Holdings, an associate of a non-executive director, so that means insider buying of over R1 million in total. This is an interesting follow-on to the recent failed take-private.
    • An associate of a non-executive director of Sun International (JSE: SUI) bought shares worth R874k.
    • An associate of a non-executive director of BHP (JSE: BHG) bought shares worth just over R600k.
    • An associate of a director of iOCO (JSE: IOC) bought shares worth R20.7k.
  • Gold Fields (JSE: GFI) has a headache in Ghana, where the Minerals Commission has rejected the company’s application for a lease extension at Damang Mining. This is despite Gold Fields protesting on the basis that the application has fulfilled all statutory requirements. The government has now served an eviction notice to Gold Fields, with the company having to be off the site by 18th April – yes, in just a few days from now! Nothing is ever easy or predictable in Africa.
  • Something may finally be happening at Kibo Energy (JSE: KBO), with the company confirming that it is at an advanced stage in its assessment of potential projects for acquisition as part of a reverse takeover transaction. For this reason, trading in the shares listed on the AIM in London will be suspended as a precautionary measure. The JSE rules are different to those in London and trading won’t be suspended here. I’ve always found it odd that trading can be suspended on one exchange but not the other, as it really seems to defeat the purpose of the precaution.
  • The chairperson of Jubilee Metals (JSE: JBL), Ollie Oliveira, is retiring from his position with effect from 30 April 2025. He will be succeeded by Dr Mathews Phosa, currently the vice-chairperson. Also, interim finance director Jonathan Morley-Kirk has been appointed to that role on a permanent basis.
  • As part of the broader investment by Kinetic Development Group in MC Mining (JSE: MCZ), there are two new director appointments to the board at MC Mining. One is the CFO of Kinetic Asia, while the other is a highly experienced executive with tons of experience in Asia.
  • Hedge fund manager All Weather Capital has increased its stake in Trencor (JSE: TRE) from 4.56% to 7.48% ahead of the intended winding up of that company.
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