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PODCAST: No Ordinary Wednesday Ep122 | A new cycle for private equity

Listen to the podcast here:

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Private equity is shifting gears. As rates turn and investor confidence improves, funds are deploying again, and South Africa is firmly back on the radar. But this isn’t a return to excess, it’s a shift toward smarter leverage, disciplined execution and sharper capital structuring. In the latest episode of No Ordinary Wednesday, Jeremy Maggs speaks to Rishanth Pillay, Head of Sponsor Leveraged Finance at Investec Corporate & Investment Banking, about what’s driving the renewed momentum – and what could derail it.

Hosted by seasoned broadcaster, Jeremy Maggs, the No Ordinary Wednesday podcast unpacks the latest economic, business and political news in South Africa, with an all-star cast of investment and wealth managers, economists and financial planners from Investec. Listen in every second Wednesday for an in-depth look at what’s moving markets, shaping the economy, and changing the game for your wallet and your business.

Also on Apple Podcasts, Spotify and YouTube:

Ghost Bites (AfroCentric | Cashbuild | Labat Africa | Libstar | Lighthouse Properties | Quilter | Sanlam | Woolworths)

AfroCentric’s earnings are under pressure (JSE: ACT)

Will Sanlam regret this one?

AfroCentric has released numbers for the year ended December 2025. They look bonkers at first blush, with revenue nearly doubling and HEPS coming in more than 3x higher. And yet if you look at the underlying management commentary, they talk about a challenging performance.

It took me a while to see why this is the case, but then I noticed that the comparable period is the six months ended December 2024. It’s therefore little wonder that 12-month numbers look so much bigger than 6-month numbers.

Having solved that mystery, it makes a lot more sense to look at the commentary and see them talking about a tough period. Revenue for the year was significantly lower than in the 12 months to June 2024 (the last 12-month period we have), with operating profit down considerably as well. Even cash generated from operations is lower than what we saw in that period. For me, it’s less about the percentages in this case, as we would be comparing to an old period. The more important point is that the direction of travel has been down.

One of the challenges has been the loss of important contracts. There’s much hope that the new relationship with Sanlam (JSE: SLM) as the controlling shareholder will help them turn the corner, but these things aren’t easy to implement.

AfroCentric notes that Fedhealth and Medshield won’t be amalgamating for actuarial reasons, showing how difficult it is to actually achieve scale in this space. This means that multi-scheme services are the way forward, while looking for ways to tap into the Sanlam ecosystem to find new product opportunities.

It also doesn’t help that Medscheme is fighting with Bonitas over the latter’s approach to finding a new services provider. When you have to go to court to try to retain your customers, you’re running a tough business.

Once you strip out the impairments and all the noise, you’re looking at a company that generated R117 million in headline earnings, or 13.92 cents in HEPS. The share price is just over the R1 mark. The low-single-digit Price/Earnings multiple reflects the complexity here, as well as the underlying risk with client contracts. And when you’re in the sub-R1 billion market cap category, results that are difficult to understand and interpret make things even harder.

At least going forward, the change in year-end is out of the system. This removes some of the compexity.

With Sanlam having acquired its controlling stake at much higher prices than the current AfroCentric share price, one wonders if the feelings of regret are kicking in.


Cashbuild’s margins look much better (JSE: CSB)

This is far more positive than sales growth suggested would be the case

Cashbuild has released results for the six months to 28 December 2025. I wasn’t expecting much, as the revenue updates have been timid. But there’s a positive surprise in these numbers for investors like me, as Cashbuild has managed to extract much better margins in a slow-growth environment.

Revenue increased 3%, with volumes doing almost all of the heavy lifting. With limited selling price inflation, it’s even more surprising that gross profit margin actually improved from 24.3% to 25.0%. This drove a 7% increase in gross profit.

With only a 6% increase in operating expenses (excluding the loss on disposal of the Malawi operation, a number that is excluded from HEPS anyway), the company pulled off an improvement in operating margin. By the time you get to HEPS, you find an increase of 18%.

Not convinced by this? Well, you could always follow the cash. With the dividend up 21%, Cashbuild is sending a far more bullish message than before. The market is listening, with the share price closing 4.5% higher on the day.

The revenue for the first 7 weeks of the new reporting period looks good, up 8% year-on-year. Will the share price keep clawing its way up based on these numbers?

Give me your thoughts in the poll below:


Labat Africa is acquiring a 20% take in a Mozambican AI business (JSE: LAB)

No, you aren’t hallucinating

Mozambique is known for many things. Beautiful beaches, R&R, rubies, civil unrest – but not AI. I have never in my life read anything about the technology sector in that country. There’s a first time for everything!

Labat Africa has announced the acquisition of a 20% interest in Mondau, LDA – a private company in Mozambique that is focused on generative AI and related products across Africa. Their specific expertise is in industrial AI applications.

This is part of Labat’s broader strategy to get closer to the AI-secured dollar cashless transactions market in sub-Saharan Africa. What does that have to do with industrial AI, you ask? I’m also not sure.

It gets even more fascinating when you see the pricing. Labat will acquire a 20% stake for R30 million, a price that is in line with the net asset value of R150 million. This is for a business that delivered pre-tax profit of $5 million (yes, around R80 million) in the 2025 financial year. The tax rate in Mozambique is 32%.

This means they are paying a single-digit Price/Earnings multiple for what is supposedly an AI company. One thing about Labat: it’s never boring.


Libstar goes on the charm offensive (JSE: LBR)

Life-after-cautionary includes a Capital Markets Day this month

Libstar has been on quite the rollercoaster ride. After trading under cautionary based on negotiations with potential acquirers, the company withdrew that cautionary based on their belief that the negotiations were undervaluing Libstar’s business.

We’ve seen this movie before on the local market. The new-defunct Murray & Roberts is surely the worst example, with the board snubbing an offer and the company heading into business rescue just a few years later. To be clear, that isn’t the trajectory that Libstar is on – the Murray & Roberts example is of the extreme variety. But the lesson for shareholders is that boards don’t always have the right view on the fair value of a company.

I’ll give credit to Libstar here: they are going to explain their view to the market. They’ve scheduled a Capital Markets Day for 31 March in Cape Town, with a site visit on 1 April. There’s also a link to join online for the presentations, should you so desire.

The recent performance has certainly been on the up, so it’s going to be interesting to understand the investment case from the board’s perspective.

Libstar’s share price is hanging in there for the time being, up 21% over 12 months and maintaining at least a portion of the gains that were triggered by the initial cautionary announcement. The management team is smart enough to realise that they need to do the work to keep it there.


Lighthouse’s earnings grow by 7.5% (JSE: LTE)

And that’s measured in euros

Lighthouse Properties released results for the year ended December 2025. This property fund is focused on western European cities, so the earnings are in euros.

Lighthouse has been pushing hard into Iberia, although there’s now too much money chasing too few deals in that market. Both Lighthouse and sector peer Vukile Property Fund (JSE: VKE) have flagged that the window for dealmaking is closing in Spain and Portugal. Capital discipline is key in this game, so it’s good to see this kind of commentary.

Shareholders won’t complain about Lighthouse’s 7.5% uplift in both distributable earnings per share and the distribution itself. The goal in property investing is to achieve a decent premium to inflation. Considering that this is a hard currency return, Lighthouse has achieved that goal.

The loan-to-value ratio has moved significantly higher, up from 25% to 35.5%. They’ve been very busy with acquisitions, but they expect the pace to slow down now. Near-term growth will instead be driven by redevelopments of existing properties. I must also note that 35.5% isn’t an unhealthy balance sheet.

The board is forecasting growth of 6.9% in FY26. If they get it right, that’s another decent year of returns for investors.


Quilter is managing to extract growth from the tough UK market (JSE: QLT)

The platform strategy is working

Quilter has released results for the year ended December 2025. With total assets under management and administration up by 18% year-on-year, their strategy to attract assets is working. Sure, market values helped the cause here, but they still achieved record flows – and that’s what management should really be measured on.

Revenue wasn’t quite as exciting unfortunately, up only 5% based mainly on management fee revenue. They managed to keep cost increases to just 4% though, so adjusted profit before tax was up 6%.

Adjusted diluted earnings per share increased 4%, impacted by a higher tax rate for the group. The dividend for the year increased by 7%. Shareholders can also look forward to a share buyback programme of £100 million this year.

Looking deeper, Quilter Advisor productivity (measured by channel sales per advisor) increased by 6%. The IFA channel was the biggest highlight though, with gross flows up by a whopping 40%.

The disappointment was in the high net-worth segment, where gross flows were slightly down. The UK government is doing an incredible job of chasing rich people away to other countries.


Sanlam to invest R3.2 billion in African Rainbow Capital Investments (JSE: SLM)

At least there’s a proper hurdle rate here for performance fees

Sanlam never sits still. I’ve said before that if you’re going to work in an internal corporate finance and strategy team, this is a company that should be at the top of your list. There’s always a deal on the table in Bellville.

The latest example is Sanlam Life acquiring a 25% economic interest in the diversified investments portfolio of the ARC Fund. This excludes the financial services investments in ARC. You basically need a full safari guide to navigate the ARC group structure and where everything sits.

Sanlam and ARC have a deeply entrenched relationship, not least of all because they share Ubuntu-Botho Investments as an empowerment partner. Sanlam Life has identified this as a way to increase their alternative asset exposure through a vehicle that they are familiar with.

For ARC, this brings them another R3.2 billion for investments, as Sanlam Life will be subscribing for new shares.

It’s amazing how the performance fees for this investment only apply if the general partner at ARC beats a hurdle rate of 23% per annum. When the broader ARC structure was listed on the JSE, the hurdle rate was a whole lot lower than that. This is the difference between negotiating with institutional investors vs. bringing something to the broader retail market.


Double-digit dividend growth at Woolworths (JSE: WHL)

But the rest of the numbers aren’t quite as exciting

Woolworths has released results for the 26 weeks to 28 December 2025. The retail market is extremely tough at the moment, but they are doing a decent job of taking the fight to major competitors in South Africa.

Group numbers include Australia, so they are usually not a reflection of how the underlying South African businesses are performing. As a brief summary, group revenue was up 5.4%, adjusted EBITDA increased 3.2% and HEPS was up 9.6%. The interim dividend is a juicy 10.3% higher. It’s worth noting that adjusted diluted HEPS was only 0.7% higher.

I prefer to look at the underlying segments to get a feel for performance. So, let’s go shopping.

At Woolworths South Africa, for example, turnover growth was 6.8%. A feature of these numbers is that both major underlying businesses were strong contributors.

In Woolworths Food, purveyors of the finest baby potato roasting kits (with garlic aioli and crispy onions), turnover was up 7.0% overall and 5.2% on a comparable store basis. This is the only grocery retailer in South Africa that is keeping Shoprite (JSE: SHP) on their toes in the premium segment. Woolworths continues to enjoy premium pricing power, with price movement of 4.6% at a time when Shoprite had almost no inflation at all.

Woolies Dash grew revenue by 23%, with that channel contributing 7.2% to Woolworths Food sales in South Africa. The omnichannel strategy requires more stores in order to be a success, with net trading space up 4.3%. They talk about the dilutionary impact of online sales though, contributing to a 10 basis points decline in gross margin to 24.8%.

Adjusted EBITDA was up by 7% in Woolworths Food, so we can put a tick in the box for this part of the business. And I strongly recommend that you try those potatoes.

Onwards to Fashion, Beauty and Home (FBH) – the part of the business that has been a lot shakier than Food. Things are looking much better now, with turnover up 6.2% overall and 6.4% on a comparable-store basis. Unlike in Woolworths Food, they are reducing their footprint here – net trading space was down by 1.9%. Being right around the corner from your customers is less important in clothing than in food.

Online contributed 6.2% to sales, which is less than in Woolworths Food these days. This just shows you how consumer habits have changed in recent years.

Price movement was 2.8% over the period, but this wasn’t enough to protect gross margin, which fell by 50 basis points to 45.8%.

Despite this, adjusted operating profit was up 1% and adjusted EBITDA increased 4.5%. They aren’t shooting the lights out, but that’s still a decent result in a very tough environment.

The other thing we have to focus on is Country Road Group, where sales were up by 2.3% overall and 2.5% on a comparable-store basis. Net trading space crept 0.2% higher, while the online contribution was unchanged at 27.2%.

Gross profit margin at Country Road Group didn’t fare so well though, down 100 basis points to 57.9%. Expenses were kept flat thanks to restructuring activities, so adjusted operating profit increased by 4.2%. By Aussie retail standards, that’s a very good result!

The Woolworths share price is down 2.5% over 12 months, which sounds horrible without context. But do yourself a favour and compare it to the other local retailers. You’ll quickly see that Woolworths has been one of the most resilient names in the sector, avoiding the absolute bloodbath further down the LSM curve.


Nibbles:

  • Director dealings:
    • AngloGold Ashanti (JSE: ANG) was a tad sneaky in a director dealings announcement, noting that a sale worth $525k was “in part to fund the tax liability” on a share-based award. Technically, that’s true, but someone skimming the announcement might think that only the taxable portion was sold. In reality, this particular director sold the entire award that vested.
  • Having gone through the embarrassing process of significantly restating prior period earnings, South Ocean Holdings (JSE: SOH) has now followed it up with a trading statement that notes an expected drop in HEPS of 69.8%. They are essentially giving you the answer here, rather than a range, with HEPS coming in at 6.81 cents for the year ended December 2025. Let’s hope they are right this time about what the HEPS number should be.
  • One of the things you don’t want as a listed company is to get a reputation for using SENS as a PR machine. SENS announcements should be used sparingly for anything that isn’t mandatory under the listings requirements (like results, or director dealings). Bell Equipment (JSE: BEL) hopefully won’t make a habit of releasing announcements like their latest one. They’ve noted a new collaboration agreement to supply CASE Construction Equipment motor graders to CNH for distribution in North America. The announcement is devoid of any financial information, with the only data point being that the first motor graders will be supplied in the second half of 2026. My view is that unless a company is willing to give an indication of financial effects, the announcement probably doesn’t belong on SENS.
  • It probably won’t come as a surprise to you that the non-binding advisory vote on SPAR’s (JSE: SPP) remuneration policy was on the embarrassing side. A whopping 69.54% of votes were cast against it. Sadly, this is where “non-binding” becomes important – it’s little more than a form of protest.
  • The RMB Holdings (JSE: RMH) AGM also dished up some spicy results, although that’s to be expected when there is so much animosity between shareholders with conflicting views. Certain director appointments were not approved, while the remuneration policy suffered 86.76% of votes cast against it.
  • Nombulelo Pinky Moholi, ex-CEO of Telkom (JSE: TKG), has joined the board of Netcare (JSE: NTC) as an independent non-executive director.

Ghost Bites (Aspen | Brimstone | Caxton | Discovery | iOCO | Nedbank | Optasia | Sea Harvest | Shoprite | WBHO | Weaver)

FEATURED: Nedbank’s FY25 earnings growth was subdued, but they’ve taken major corporate steps (JSE: NED)

Can they meaningfully increase the growth rate?

Nedbank managed to increase diluted HEPS and the full-year dividend by 3% in the year ended December 2025. This means they are keeping up with inflation, which is the bare minimum performance you would hope to see (even though it isn’t always easy). Net asset value (NAV) per share did slightly better, up 4%.

Return on equity was 15.4%, but would’ve been 15.8% excluding the painful once-off Transnet settlement.

This may sound like a timid result, but there’s a lot of corporate activity sitting underneath these numbers that is designed to boost growth in years to come.

For example, they sold the 21% stake in ETI and made an offer to acquire a controlling stake in NCBA, marking a substantial shift in strategic thinking in Africa. They also acquired 100% of iKhokha, an interesting play in the South African market.

There’s a lot of work to do here, particularly as the cost-to-income ratio went the wrong way in a period of subdued revenue growth. But credit where credit is due: they’ve made some big moves in the past year.

Nedbank is a strong supporter of my work in Ghost Mail and they’ve placed their results on the platform here. This includes the detailed operational review by CEO Jason Quinn. I suggest you give it a read!


FEATURED: Sea Harvest just enjoyed the best year in its history (JSE: SHG)

When fishing goes well, it goes really well

I’m excited to tell you that a podcast with the CEO and CFO of Sea Harvest will be coming your way this week, so that will packed with details on the strategy and performance of the company. You should also check out this piece from the company that gives you additional insight into the numbers.

The high-level story is pretty simple, really: it was an incredible year for the company. Revenue was up 20%, operating margin increased from 8% to 15% and HEPS casually increased by 442%. You won’t see numbers like these very often.

Hake is the most important product in the group, so a combination of better catch rates and higher hake pricing will always do good things for the numbers. With significant operating leverage in the model (it costs the same to send a boat out to sea regardless of how much it catches), the good times can be really good.

With net debt to EBITDA dropping from 2.5x to 1.3x, they clearly used 2025 as a great opportunity to materially reduce debt. There’s more of that to come, with Sea Harvest having already announced the disposal of Ladismith Cheese for R840 million.

The only blemish was in abalone, where weak demand in Hong Kong and China led to losses in that segment. Thankfully, the performance was so good elsewhere that it more than made up for this.


FEATURED: I wouldn’t want to be competing with Shoprite right now (JSE: SHP)

Years of the right strategic moves eventually add up to this

Retail is a very tough space at the moment. If you don’t believe me, you can look at Shoprite’s difficult share price performance despite being one of the best retailers (if not the best retailer) on the continent. And in a podcast coming your way this week with CEO Pieter Engelbrecht, you’ll learn much more about how they’ve gotten to that enviable position.

But in the 26 weeks to 28 December 2025, Shoprite had to contend with an environment that is almost devoid of inflation. This makes life very difficult for retailers – even the best ones. And it makes it almost impossible for retailers with inherent weaknesses, so my bearishness on Shoprite’s competitors is only getting worse.

Sales from continuing operations increased by 7.2%. For a company the size of Shoprite, that means an incremental R9.2 billion in sales. That’s an extraordinary amount of additional sales to be going through the tills!

And through the apps, mind you. Omnichannel is flying at Shoprite, with R11.9 billion in sales through Sixty60. In the group context of R136.8 billion, that’s a material contribution.

The most impressive thing about this result is that it was achieved with selling price inflation of only 0.7% on average. During the festive season, it was actually a deflationary environment – and that’s at group level, not just in Usave! This really puts the like-for-like sales growth of 1.9% in Supermarkets RSA in context.

One of the new disclosures in this set of results is focused on gross margin. I suspect that competitors are going to get the fright of their lives when they see gross margin in Supermarkets RSA of 25.3%. And when you consider that Shoprite is primarily a value retailer rather than a premium player (like Woolworths Food), that margin is even better.

Trading profit increased by 5.9%, so there was some pressure on trading profit margin. It’s extremely hard to avoid this in an environment of low product inflation, as many of the costs faced by Shoprite are increasing at a higher rate than their sales.

I will say it for the 100th time: the squeeze is on in grocery retail. The scariest gorilla in the room can’t even get margins to go in the right directiion in an environment where the SARB keeps rates stubbornly high. In that context, what do you think is happening right now at competitors who have franchise models that don’t benefit from having a single view of inventory across the group?

Look out for the podcast this week. It’s going to give you an entirely new perspective on grocery retail. In the meantime, let me know your views in the poll below:


Aspen’s numbers require you to take a deeper view (JSE: APN)

Underneath all the noise, there’s an encouraging story

Aspen released results for the six months to December 2025. With revenue down 4% and HEPS down 35%, they aren’t pretty.

There are plenty of distortions here related to the mRNA contractual dispute in the prior period and the subsequent settlement payment. This leaves the latest interim results with a tough base for comparison, as a R1.5 billion contract simply isn’t there anymore.

Normalised EBITDA is thus down 13%, a number that the market has already digested thanks to Aspen giving detailed guidance in that regard.

Now for the good news, with Commercial Pharmaceuticals achieving normalised EBITDA growth of 11% at constant rates. This is the most flattering view, as EBITDA as reported actually only increased by 6%. Still, the GLP-1 drugs are finding strong support in South Africa, which is no surprise to anyone given their global adoption.

The Manufacturing business managed positive EBITDA of R208 million, assisted by the settlement proceeds. They’ve had to implement major cost reductions here, with the full benefit expected to be realised in FY27. That number is a whopping 84% reduction vs. the prior year.

An area of focus has been cash flow, with major strides made in working capital. This helped bring debt down from R31.2 billion to R28.6 billion – but that’s still a net debt to EBITDA ratio of 3.4x, which is too high.

Fear not: at the end of 2025, Aspen announced the divestment of Aspen APAC. The price is nearly AUD 2.4 billion, a number that will get rid of most of the debt.

In terms of the outlook, they expect Commercial Pharmaceuticals to generate mid-single digit organic revenue growth and double-digit normalised EBITDA growth, both in constant currency. The normalised EBITDA in Manufacturing is expected to be in line with the prior year, as the operational improvements offset the mRNA contract loss in the second half.

EBITDA in the second half is expected to be in line with the first half, which would lead to double-digit growth in normalised headline earnings for the full year. This is because the mRNA contract contribution is in the first half of the prior period, creating a much tougher base for comparison for the interim period vs. the full year.


Brimstone’s HEPS may look good, but intrinsic NAV is what counts (JSE: BRT)

Thankfully, the discount to INAV has significantly decreased

Brimstone released results for the year ended December 2025. Although HEPS jumped by 98%, it’s very important to understand that this isn’t the right metric for an investment holding company. Instead, the market tends to work off intrinsic net asset value (INAV) per share. Brimstone knows this at heart, which is why there’s a page on the website dedicated to intrinsic value.

INAV per share fell by 11% in this period, although the share price is up 25% over 12 months. This means that the discount to INAV has decreased over the past year. The INAV per share is R9.88 and the share price is R6.00. The discount will always be there in the South African market, but it’s not materially different these days to what you’ll see at many other investment holding companies.

The market will put a smaller discount on cash than on underlying investments, so the perverse irony is that local investors actually rewarded Brimstone for selling R633.4 million worth of Oceana (JSE: OCE) shares and reducing debt by R520 million, even though this sale happened at a time when the Oceana price was under pressure.

Brimstone’s stake in Oceana now sits at 16% and is worth under R1.2 billion. This is a major swing in the shape of Brimstone’s exposure, as the Oceana investment is now smaller than the 44.2% stake in Sea Harvest (JSE: SHG), valued at R1.5 billion.

There’s plenty of other stuff in Brimstone, with FPG Property Fund (valued at R421 million after CGT) as the next largest investment. In my view, the long tail of investments is simply too long, making it difficult for investors to really get a sense of where the focus areas are. It would be good to see further asset disposals for debt reduction – and perhaps even additional share buybacks at this juicy discount to INAV.


Caxton and CTP Publishers and Printers: truly a tale of two segments (JSE: CAT)

Newspapers are surely in their death throes

Caxton’s results for the six months to December 2025 are nowhere near as bad as the underlying narrative would suggest. The company is facing challenges everywhere at the moment, yet revenue was down only 0.5% and HEPS dipped by 1.6%.

There’s an interim dividend of 100 cents per share, but it’s really just a special dividend by another name after the SARB gave Caxton the runaround on actually approving the dividend.

The segmental performance varies dramatically. And when I read the commentary, it’s very hard for me to believe that the share price is going to maintain the 20% rally achieved over the past year, even if the Price/Earnings multiple is in the single digits.

Let’s start with the division at Caxton that appears to have a long-term future: Packaging and Stationery. You can then brace yourself for Publishing, Printing and Distribution.

Even within the “good” division, we start with bad news. Caxton is exposed to the alcohol beverage market in the form of label printing. Volumes are under pressure in this space, with consumers drinking less by the day. For context, despite my best efforts, the bottled wine market declined by double digits!

They are also exposed to the cigarette industry, with the closure of the British American Tobacco operation in Heidelberg expected to impact less than 5% of segmental turnover (still a material amount). I’m happy to say that I’ve been of no help there.

Now for the highlight: the quick-service restaurant sector is driving volumes, specifically as consumers turn to value meals. Packaging is packaging, regardless of how fancy the protein inside happens to be. Oh yes, and there are other green shoots in the general beverage and hygiene markets for the plastic businesses at Caxton.

There we go. Those were the highlights. Blink and you missed them!

To finish off that division, the stationery side suffered a very difficult wholesale market. If schools are struggling to fill classrooms, then I can’t see why stationery businesses would buck that trend.

Despite all this pain, the segment grew revenue by 1.9% and operating profit by 4%. They turned water into wine here – and printed labels for the bottle along the way.

We now move on to Publishing, Printing and Distribution, where things look worse.

Caxton’s local newspaper business is in serious trouble, but I can’t believe that anyone is surprised by this. The days of stay-at-home moms spending two hours trawling through a combination of local school pics and stories of a person turning 100 are long over. That barely even happens on Facebook anymore, where our feeds are just a constant stream of algorithm-approved content. Also, how many stay-at-home moms do you know…?

Advertisers go where the eyeballs are – and the eyeballs (especially the valuable ones) are nowhere near local newspapers. The only thing that surprises me about a 9% decline in revenue in newspaper advertising is that the number isn’t much worse. With two of the local grocery groups in serious trouble, how long do you think supermarket advertising can keep local newspapers afloat?

Digital advertising revenue was up 23%, so Caxton is making some progress in the shift to digital. But with everything going on in AI and how this affects digital businesses, that world is highly uncertain at the moment.

A very unlucky additional issue is that the Department of Basic Education Foundation Phase curriculum rewrite keeps getting pushed out. It’s now expected to happen in 2026 for implementation in 2027. I wouldn’t hold my breath – this is the government we are talking about.

The division decreased operating costs by 7%, so they are doing what they can to manage the decline. Still, revenue was down 3.7% and operating profit fell by nearly 20%.

I’m not one to invest in groups where a big chunk of the business appears to be in terminal decline.


The market liked Discovery’s numbers (JSE: DSY)

It was one of very few shares in the green on the JSE on Tuesday

Share price moves always need to be viewed in context. The JSE had a very ugly day on Tuesday, with the All-Share Index shedding 5.5%. Discovery finished 0.5% higher on the day after releasing results. It’s not every day that you create ~6% of outperformance in a single day!

But it’s also not every day that a company of Discovery’s size reports normalised HEPS growth of 26%. They really did well in the six months to December 2025, with the dividend adding to the party with a 28% increase.

Return on equity increased from 15.4% to 17.4%, putting Discovery ahead of some of the local banks.

Vitality grew normalised profit from operations by 41%, reflecting the growth opportunity for this technology on the global stage. Needless to say, Discovery talks about the value of AI in this space. They do have an absolutely immense dataset, so I believe it!

Discovery Health grew normalised profit from operations by 5%, so even the legacy business is still growing ahead of inflation. Discovery Life achieved 15%, while Discovery Insure was up 34%. Discovery Invest only managed 1%, a weak (but still green) performance in the context of the other segments.

Discovery Bank is undoubtedly one of the big stories, achieving R75 million in normalised profit from operations. The bank is now solidly profitable, with investors looking for a sharp climb up the J-curve now that they are washing their own faces. There’s been an enormous capital investment in that business that needs to earn a return.

Discovery’s share price is up 24% in the past year. That’s an impressive return for a company that hasn’t had the benefit of any of the major recent macro trends that have boosted big names on the JSE (like commodity prices, or currencies in Africa). They’ve achieved this through strong execution both locally and abroad.


iOCO has achieved strong earnings growth (JSE: IOC)

And they are still repurchasing shares in the market

iOCO has released a trading statement for the six months to 31 January 2026. It tells a positive story, with HEPS expected to increase by between 42% and 58%. This implies a range of 27 cents to 30 cents for the interim period. If you annualise that, the current share price of R4.30 doesn’t look terribly demanding.

The results have been attributed to cost rationalisation, disciplined capital allocation (share repurchases have helped) and the benefits of a decentralised operating model.

The share repurchases are continuing. In February, they bought R12.3 million worth of shares in the market.


Optasia’s business is meeting its growth targets (JSE: OPA)

But earnings have been impacted by once-off listing costs

Optasia (officially called Channel VAS Investments) has released a trading update for the year ended December 2025. This is important, as the company is in the early stages of its life as a listed company. They need to hit the numbers that they promised to investors.

This appears to be happening, with revenue growth of 73% to 78% (the target was more than 50%), while normalised net income is up by between 54% and 59% (the target was 45%). That’s a big tick in the box.

Due to the substantial IPO costs though, HEPS will only increase by between 7% and 12%. To go through such an expensive listing and still grow overall earnings in that period is pretty good in my books.

Detailed results are due for release on 16 March.


Several WBHO metrics went the wrong way (JSE: WBO)

The market ran for the hills over the course of the day

On a risk-off day on the JSE, being a construction stock is an extreme sport. People are going to hit the SELL button when they are worried. And when you happen to release numbers on the same day that are less than inspiring, you’re firmly in the cross-hairs. WBHO’s share price fell 16.5% on the day.

HEPS from total operations actually increased by 1.3% to R10.86, but that was one of the few positive trajectories among the key numbers. Revenue from continuing operations dipped 4%, operating profit from continuing operations fell 3% and the order book decreased by 3%.

In fact, the only reason for the increase in HEPS is that there was a reduction in the weighted average number of shares. Although the pie got smaller at WBHO in the latest period, the number of guests at the table decreased by a faster rate and each person got slightly more pie.

But that doesn’t mean that they went home feeling good about the dinner party.

If you need to feel good about life in South Africa, the outlook statement actually paints a prettier picture for the land of sunshine and braais vs. the UK, where WBHO is finding it tough to grow.


Weaver Fintech flags significant earnings growth (JSE: WVR)

I’m very happy with how this is working out for me

I bought Weaver straight after their first Unlock the Stock experience. I had wanted to own the stock, but I needed to meet the management team and make sure that I was happy. In case you’ve ever wondered whether I eat my own cooking on the platforms that I’m involved in, there’s your answer – it’s as much my research process as it is yours.

So far, so good. The share price is up 150%(!) over 12 months and the market is waking up to the Buy Now Pay Later (BNPL) opportunity.

In a trading statement for the year ended December 2025, Weaver has noted that HEPS increased by between 35% and 45%.

The management team will be on Unlock the Stock once more on 12th March. Attendance is free, but you must register here.


Nibbles:

  • Raubex (JSE: RBX) has renewed the cautionary announcement related to the evaluation of strategic options in respect of Bauba Resources. There is no certainty at this stage of a transaction happening. Personally, I think offloading that asset and simplifying the group is a worthwhile exercise.
  • South Ocean Holdings (JSE: SOH) somehow managed to use the wrong number to calculate the headline loss per share in the 12 months to December 2024 and the 6 months to June 2025. It’s not a small difference, either. HEPS for the year to June 2024 should’ve been 22.56 cents, not 16.59 cents. And for the six months to June 2025, the headline loss per share should’ve been -9.31 cents, not -15.20 cents.

Sea Harvest FY25 results: a catch for all seasons

Sea Harvest financials for the year ended December 2025

“Sea Harvest Group’s latest annual results reflect a strong operating performance, supported by robust demand for wild-caught seafood and favourable hake fishing conditions. Improved volume efficiencies, lower fuel costs, and continued discipline in cost management further contributed to the Group’s solid financial outcome.”

Felix Ratheb – CEO

Sea Harvest Group has delivered the strongest performance in its history for the year ended 31 December 2025, driven by improved hake fishing conditions and firm global and domestic demand for sustainable wild-caught seafood, disciplined execution of its strategy, and improved operational efficiencies across the Group.

Felix Ratheb, CEO of Sea Harvest, says the Group’s strong performance reflects the deliberate steps it has taken over time to position the business for sustainable growth. The Group invested in organic expansion and acquired best-in-class fishing businesses in South Africa, ensuring that it was built on a solid operational foundation. “Once these strategic initiatives were fully embedded and operating conditions turned in our favour, we were well positioned to capitalise on the opportunity.”

Delivering as the tide turned

Revenue for the Group surged by 21% to R8.7 billion (USD548 million), while operating profit jumped 125% to R1.3 billion (USD82 million), improving the operating margin from 8% to 15%. Headline earnings per share (HEPS) from total operations climbed to 219 cents, a four-fold increase from 2024’s 55 cents. The Group declared a dividend of 76 cents (2024: 22 cents per share). “Demand for Cape Hake remained very firm, particularly in Europe, supported by reduced supply from competing species such as cod, where volumes declined significantly,” says Ratheb.

A favourable exchange rate, lower fuel prices, and a disciplined focus on cost management – developed over the past three challenging years – contributed to margin expansion, with the gross profit margin increasing to 36% and the earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) margin to 28%. “Debt reduction improved, supported by our robust performance,” says Muhammad Brey, CFO of Sea Harvest, adding that net debt improved by R417 million to R2.24 billion, further strengthening the balance sheet and lowering the net debt to EBITDA ratio to 1.3x (from 2.5x in 2024). Importantly, the Group recorded a solid improvement in return on invested capital (ROIC) relative to weighted average cost of capital (WACC), a key strategic focus area and important metric for the business, reflecting improved capital efficiency.

Harnessing strong demand to deliver performance

“The results reflect operational tailwinds and hard-won operational gains,” says Ratheb, adding that the star of the show was firm global and local demand for wild-caught, sustainable seafood, which lifted pricing across markets and channels. “Hake, our anchor species, benefited significantly from improved biomass and catch rates, with volumes increasing by 17% driven by a higher total allowable catch (TAC) and a 42% improvement in catch rates reflecting favourable fishing conditions. This performance was made possible through the additional fishing capacity we acquired, improved utilisation of our world-class assets, and strong planning and execution.”

He adds that this was complemented by an exceptional performance in the pelagic business where strong volumes and improved fish oil yields contributed positively. “Although wild-capture businesses in South Africa continued to anchor our earnings as expected, a recovery in Australia supported our global portfolio. Sea Harvest Australia posted revenue growth of 13% to R1.13 billion, aided by better prawn pricing and engineering-business performance.” He notes that volume efficiencies and good cost control were experienced across the Group.

Back home, Ladismith Cheese delivered improved efficiencies on the back of increased milk flow of 8% and muted inflation.

“Our abalone business, the smallest component of the Group, underwent structural challenges related to revenue pressure from slow demand in China. We are consistently right-sizing the business to ensure it is fit for purpose and ready when the Chinese market rebounds,” says Ratheb.

The investment case: A laser-focus on core operations

A headline strategic development in November 2025 was the proposed disposal of Ladismith Cheese for R840 million in 2026. Even though Ladismith Cheese has been a sound investment over the past six years, in a growing sector, the proposed disposal forms an integral part of Sea Harvest Group’s sharpened focus on building a streamlined, diversified seafood portfolio.

Ratheb explains that the disposal is intended to redirect capital towards higher-return areas, enhance margin quality, and accelerate debt reduction. “Part of our strategic investment case is that we are a diversified seafood business with exposure to all material wild-caught fisheries in South Africa and Australia. The disposal not only strengthens our investment proposition but also ensures we remain focused on delivering what is on the box, fully aligned with our strategy,” he says.

In addition, the Group’s hake and pelagic offerings are secure: It holds long-term security of tenure through 15-year rights in hake and pelagics in South Africa, complemented by perpetual rights in Australia. Its South African hake and Australian prawn fisheries are Marine Stewardship Council (MSC)-certified, and Sea Harvest Pelagic is Marin Trust-certified, underscoring the Group’s sustainability credentials.

“We have a geographically diverse customer base that provides a strong rand hedge, with approximately 54% of sales from export markets, which will expand to 64% following the Ladismith Cheese disposal, making Sea Harvest and an excellent portfolio diversifier,” says Ratheb. For investors who may be cautious about supply-demand dynamics in the fishing industry, Ratheb notes that sector fundamentals remain attractive. “Global demand for premium, wild-caught, sustainable seafood continues to exceed supply, while aquaculture is one of the fastest-growing global food sectors. Notably, aquaculture output now exceeds wild-caught fisheries, and fishmeal and fish oil – core products in our pelagic operations – are essential components of aquaculture feed.”

Aquaculture operations globally depend on high-quality feed, with the Group’s fishmeal and fish oil primarily supplied to salmon farms. As the premium species within global aquaculture, salmon represents approximately 2% of total aquaculture production yet contributes close to 20% of the industry’s value. This allows the Group to participate in an attractive and high-value segment of the aquaculture ecosystem.

Outlook

Sea Harvest expects 2026 to present both opportunities and choppy waters. “The hake TAC was reduced by 5% at the start of 2026, and the pelagics TACs remain under pressure. A strengthening rand may also temper pricing tailwinds. We are responding with continued focus on efficiencies, cost discipline, and creating value from local and international markets,” says Ratheb.

The pelagic division enters the year with stronger fishmeal and fish oil pricing, although currency movements may offset some of these benefits. Investment in two new pelagic vessels and the upgrade of the fishmeal plant remain on track, supporting the Group’s medium- to long-term growth capacity. In Aquaculture, the near-term outlook remains muted until Chinese consumers increase their discretionary spend. With the Ladismith Cheese disposal anticipated to conclude in the first half of 2026, the Group’s diversified seafood-focused strategy will become even more pronounced and aid in strengthening its balance sheet.

Ratheb says that a sharper, more focused seafood business is better positioned to deliver higher margins and improved free cash flow conversion, which are  expected to support improved dividend capacity and enhanced long-term shareholder returns. “Tightening the net over the next three-year period reflects a mature organisation, one that is leaner; more disciplined; and focused on long-term, sustainable value creation for all stakeholders.” For investors, the latest results should demonstrate that Sea Harvest is not simply casting nets but is instead providing a compelling catch built to outlast any season.

VIEW THE FULL RESULTS HERE >>>

Note: Sea Harvest values the Ghost Mail audience and the company has placed its earnings here accordingly. This article reflects the views of the company. For the views of The Finance Ghost, refer to the section in Ghost Bites dealing with these results.

Nedbank FY25 results: a “transformative year” for the bank

Nedbank financials for the year ended December 2025

“2025 was a transformative year in which we made bold and swift strategic decisions.”

Jason Quinn – Chief Executive

Key Features

  • Completed the strategic reorganisation
  • Sold the ETI financial investment
  • Acquired iKhokha
  • Made an offer for a controlling stake in NCBA
  • Market share gains in several areas

Financial Highlights

  • Diluted HEPS +3% 3,628 cents
  • Full-year dividend per share +3% to 2,132 cents
  • NAV per share up 4% to 24,956 cents

Operational Review

Operating environment and economic context

The operating environment in 2025 remained volatile and uncertain, evident in geopolitical conflict, uncertainty around policies and US tariffs. Closer to home,
SA made progress across several fronts, resulting in financial markets, corporates and individuals having a more optimistic outlook.

The South African economy performed better than many anticipated, with real GDP growth more than doubling to 1.2% yoy during the first 3 quarters of 2025.
Notwithstanding persistent infrastructure challenges, early progress in implementing structural reforms contributed to the stabilisation of energy and transport networks, leading to an improved operating environment particularly for private enterprises. Supported by the economic recovery, higher business confidence, and greater fixed investment, corporate credit increased strongly off a low prior-year base. A stronger rand, decreasing global oil prices, and moderating inflation expectations resulted in inflation falling to an average of 3.2% in 2025, marginally above the Reserve Bank’s revised target of 3%. In response, the
central bank enacted a further total 100 basis point reduction in interest rates,
bringing the repo rate down to 6.75%, which reflects a cumulative decrease of 150 basis points since its peak in August 2024. As a result, household credit demand, although subdued for much of the year, showed signs of recovery in the final months.

Group performance

Nedbank Group’s diluted headline earnings per share (HEPS) increased by 3%, headline earnings (HE) increased by 2% to R17.2bn and return on equity (ROE), at 15.4% (2024: 15.8%), remained above the group’s 2025 cost of equity (COE). The increase in HE was driven by an improvement in the impairment charge while revenue growth was slow, associate income declined in the second half of the year given the sale of our 21% shareholding in Ecobank Transnational Incorporated (ETI), and we reported a higher expense base given a once-off settlement with Transnet. Balance sheet metrics remained strong, enabling the declaration of
a final dividend of 1 104 cents per share.

A transformative year

2025 was a transformative year in which we made bold and swift strategic decisions. We successfully restructured our Retail and Business Banking (RBB) and Nedbank Wealth Clusters into a more focused, client-centred organisational design, and created the Personal and Private Banking (PPB) and Business and Commercial Banking (BCB) Clusters from 1 July 2025.

These changes were well received by stakeholders, key leadership positions were
filled, and momentum is building as is evident in strong underlying growth metrics.

We also finalised the acquisition of 100% of fintech company iKhokha to enhance our strategy and fast-track our support for SMEs through digital innovation and
inclusive financial services. In December 2025, we disposed of our shareholding in
ETI as part of a reset of our strategy on the broader African continent with a clear focus on the SADC and East Africa regions. In this context, in Q1 2026 we announced our intention to acquire a controlling interest in NCBA Group plc, a leading financial services institution in East Africa, for an estimated total consideration of R13.9bn.

We also made good progress on our strategic value unlocks. Digital volumes
and values increased strongly as more clients across all our businesses embrace
the benefits and convenience of digital channels. Client satisfaction metrics
remained at the top end of the peer group, although more can be done here, while the value of the Nedbank brand increased by 20% to R20bn. Total clients reached 8 million for the first time in the group’s history, supported by growth across individuals, small and medium-sized businesses and corporates. Under strategic portfolio tilt we recorded solid market share gains in home loans, vehicle finance, overdrafts and retail deposits. Our increased focus on payments and insurance saw good growth in product volumes. And lastly, lending to clients that
create positive impacts and support sustainable development finance, in line
with the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals, increased to R207bn
and, at 21% of total gross loans and advances, exceeded the ambition of 20%
we set back in 2021.

Prospects

Looking forward, SA’s growth prospects are more positive, with GDP growth
estimated at 1.5% in 2026. Consumer spending will be a key driver as lower
interest rates boost confidence and borrowing. Fixed investment is also
predicted to recover steadily, benefitting our wholesale banking clusters. Inflation
should remain around the Reserve Bank’s target of 3% during the latter part of the year due to a stable rand, low global oil prices, lower inflation expectations, and fewer supply-side challenges. Interest rates could reduce by another 50 basis
points, which would bring the repo rate down to 6.25% by the end of 2026, with a
plausible scenario of interest rates remaining flat from then on for the
foreseeable future. Credit growth is projected to be robust, ending the year
around 7.7%.

In 2026 we expect that strong underlying growth momentum across all our businesses will be partially offset by the normalisation of wholesale impairments off a low 2025 base, endowment pressure from lower interest rates and associate income from ETI that will not repeat. As a result, ROE for 2026 is likely to be above 15%, heading towards 2025 levels, and above a lower COE of 14.0%.

We expect ROE to build in the medium term to around 17%, supported by stronger revenue growth and a well-managed expense base.

Thank you to all Nedbank employees for your dedication and resilience, particularly during the organisational restructuring. We appreciate our clients’ ongoing trust, as well as the engagement of investors, regulators, and other stakeholders. As Nedbank, we remain committed to using our financial expertise to do good.

VIEW THE SHORT FORM ANNOUNCEMENT BELOW:

20260302-Results-Advert-Final

VIEW THE FULL RESULTS HERE >>>

Note: Nedbank values the Ghost Mail audience and the company has placed its earnings here accordingly. This article reflects the views of the company. For the views of The Finance Ghost, refer to the section in Ghost Bites dealing with these results.

Ghost Bites (Bidvest | Clientèle | Italtile | JSE | Libstar | Merafe | MTN | RCL Foods | Thungela)

FEATURED: RCL Foods navigates the bitter situation in sugar (JSE: RCL)

They are pushing hard in growth engines elsewhere

With revenue down 1.9% and EBITDA dropping by 24.6%, the six months to December 2025 were tough for RCL Foods. If you strip out once-offs and use the company’s view of “underlying EBITDA”, then you’ll find a decrease of 14.6%. Better, but still rough.

Similarly, HEPS is down 30.6% whereas underlying HEPS has fallen by 21.9%. Whichever way you cut it, that’s not a happy direction of travel.

The interim dividend has dropped by 25% to 15 cents per share.

Kudos to the company – while many corporates would prefer numbers like these to go away quietly, RCL Foods has been consistent in their support of the Ghost Mail platform. Just like they usually do, they’ve included a detailed view of their numbers in this piece that I recommend you check out for the full segmental performance.

The overall story here is that the Sugar segment is where you’ll find the biggest issues. Revenue fell 5.9% and EBITDA dropped sharply, down 48.5%. The EBITDA margin in that business is now just 6.8%, the lowest in the group. The stronger rand has made deep sea imports much cheaper, with current tariffs doing little to protect local industry.

Groceries grew revenue by 3.3%, although EBITDA decreased by 5% and margin fell from 13.7% to 12.6%. Pet food volumes were a highlight here, with more people choosing to get puppies and kittens instead of having babies. Such is the world we currently live in.

The Baking segment grew revenue by 0.4% and suffered a decrease in EBITDA of 4.2%, with margin dipping from 9.1% to 8.6%. Competition in the bread market was a major factor here, although a 3% increase in pie volumes suggests that we aren’t shy to throw calories at our problems.

But again, these EBITDA movements include some significant distortions in areas like fair value adjustments to raw material procurement positions, as well as insurance proceeds and partial recoveries of the sugar levy in the prior period.

If you use underlying EBITDA instead, then Sugar fell by 39.3% (still a nasty outcome), but Groceries increased by 8.7% and Baking was up 0.2%.

Management is doing what they can under the circumstances, but the sugar situation is a serious concern. This is why the share price is down 14% in the past year.

I’m curious about your view on tariffs. What do you think the right approach is?


Limited growth, but better trading margins and cash flows at Bidvest (JSE: BVT)

Sometimes you hit boundaries; other times you take quick singles

Bidvest is a very good company, but this doesn’t mean that they will shoot the lights out in every period. Growth in this world isn’t linear.

For the six months to December 2025, revenue was up 4% and trading profit increased by almost 7%. This means that trading margin improved by 31 basis points to 10.1%. Although HEPS was only up by 5.1% in the end (or 5.3% on a normalised basis), this is a decent result nonetheless.

Despite a significant increase in free cash flow, the interim dividend of 495 cents only represents growth of 5.3%. They’ve kept it in line with normalised HEPS, giving themselves flexibility around what to do with R3.8 billion in free cash for the period. The substantial increase in free cash was driven by a 36% uplift in net cash from operations, helped by lower net working capital investment.

Building the largest international hygiene business is the ambitious plan here, with hygiene services now contributing 55% of Services International’s trading profit. This may be a “boring” business by many standards, but it’s one that can generate dependable cash flow. I also don’t think that AI will be cleaning bathrooms anytime soon.

With little in the way of M&A activity planned for the second half of the year, Bidvest expects Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) to improve. It came in at 13.4% this period, 100 basis points lower than 14.4% in the comparable period. Capex investment will be concentrated in the Freight business.

The outlook is positive for South Africa and more subdued on the international front. With cash flow generation like this, Bidvest looks strong enough to weather most storms.


Clientèle signs off on an encouraging interim period (JSE: CLI)

The core metrics look good

The numbers at Clientèle are quite complex thanks to recent acquisitive activity that has seen the integration of 1Life and Emerald into the group. To add to the trickiness, IFRS 17 was adopted in the reporting period ended June 2025. This sets the scene for a set of financials for the six months to December 2025 that aren’t easy to interpret.

The consolidation of Emerald Life contributed R49.5 million to headline earnings in this period. The group number is R469.3 million and the restated base is R299.9 million, so just Emerald Life contributed growth of 16.5% to headline earnings. Group headline earnings increased by 56.5%, so the rest of the business is clearly doing well.

Clientèle achieved substantial growth in the total net insurance result thanks to a reduction in loss-making contracts in the current period. They also enjoyed a strong uptick in the total net investment result, with better returns on the recurring Premium Savings business and the shareholder portfolio, among other drivers of success. Perhaps the most impressive thing about Clientèle’s business is that there was only a very small increase in operating expenses in this period. This is despite the significant improvement in the earnings profile of the business.

In insurance, a key valuation metric is Embedded Value (EV). This increased from R9.2 billion to R10.3 billion. The annualised recurring return on EV jumped from 14.3% to 23.7%, yet the group is trading at a significant discount of 25% to the EV per share.

I wouldn’t be surprised to see an upward move in this share price.


Flat turnover just isn’t enough at Italtile (JSE: ITE)

Goodness knows they’ve warned you about this

Credit to the Italtile management team: they’ve tried very hard in recent years to warn the market about the tough conditions in the manufacturing side of the business. The share price is down 29% over 3 years, with the dividends along the way helping to mitigate the pain to a total return of -7.7%.

Although Cashbuild (JSE: CSB) doesn’t have a manufacturing arm like Italtile, both options have sucked over the past year in the market:

Ouch.

The latest numbers from Italtile don’t suggest much of an improvement to the trajectory. For the six months to December 2025, system-wide turnover was unchanged at R6.1 billion. Trading profit fell 14% to R1.0 billion. HEPS dropped by 14% to 60.6 cents. And the ordinary dividend followed suit, down 14%.

The simple reality is that if turnover goes sideways in an inflationary environment, profits will go the wrong way – unless a company has pricing power and can protect margins through price increases. And when it comes to South African consumer discretionary spending, pricing power is a myth.

As a silver lining, this flat turnover was achieved against a base period that included the non-recurring boost from two-pot withdrawals.

The stronger rand is actually making things worse for them, as it makes imports even more competitive. This makes South Africa a hotbed for the dumping of cheaper products from elsewhere in the world, damaging local manufacturing.

Although CTM suffered the worst of the oversupply issues (as is to be expected in the format that offers cheaper prices), Italtile Retail (more upmarket) grew volumes and market share, with the successful award of the Club Med project in KZN as a highlight. TopT is also struggling unfortunately, although they are opening four more stores despite the challenges.

In case you’re wondering about omnichannel retail in this space, the webstores could only manage gradually increasing traffic. With products like these, it feels like most people would still want to see and touch the product.

As a shareholder in Weaver Fintech (JSE: WVR), I was pleased to see Italtile’s comments that “buy now pay later” has become more popular in the retail space.

In the manufacturing side of the business, Ceramic Industries, capacity utilisation was only 77%. Cost reductions couldn’t offset the decline in profitability. To make it worse, protectionist trade policies in neighbouring countries made it harder for Ceramic Industries to export from South Africa, so they really are a sitting duck for cheap imports. They are obviously doing all they can to win new business, including a push into the construction market through brands like Ezee Tile.

Just when you thought Australia couldn’t possibly inflict further pain on South African businesses, Italtile found an “inconsistency” in Ceramic Australia’s monthly reporting. This led to a negative impact of A$7.6 million. Sigh.

I’m surprised to see references to unreliable energy transmission and distribution infrastructure, with a note on how this has damaged Italtile’s equipment. It just shows that there are troubles out there beyond just good ol’ fashioned load shedding. The company is also navigating the medium-term picture for natural gas supply, including getting pricing from Sasol (JSE: SOL).

With Lance Foxcroft stepping down as CEO with effect from 30 June 2026 due to “changed family circumstances” and taking over Ceramic Industries instead, Brandon Wood (the current Group COO) will step into the CEO role. It’s certainly not an easy job in this industry.

The outlook is cautiously optimistic, with management hoping that an uptick in GDP will give a boost to construction and home renovations.


Record financial results at JSE Limited (JSE: JSE)

This is your reminder that the owner of the exchange is listed on its own product!

The JSE has released results for the year ended December 2025. They were fantastic, with EBITDA up 15.5% and HEPS up 17.7%. Return on equity was a juicy 22%, up from 20.2% in the prior year.

Thanks to the cash generative nature of the business, the ordinary dividend is up by 16% to 961 cents per share and there’s even a special dividend of 100 cents per share for good measure.

Here’s an important point about the JSE that few people actually realise: non-trading income was 35% of operating income in this period. Although that’s actually lower than the 38% they achieved in the comparable period, this is because 2025 was an exceptional year of trading activity on our local market. The exchange has many income streams that are unrelated to the actual level of trade on the market.

Looking at the segments, it was mostly good news. Capital Markets grew revenue 18%, Post-Trade Services was up 18% and Information Services increased 10%. The downer was JIS revenue, which fell by 7% due to lower interest rates and a margin income adjustment in the prior year.

Operating expenses grew 8.3% year-on-year. If you strip out the increasing trading activity, the increase was 6.5%. This gives you insight into the fixed vs. variable cost base.

Leila Fourie is moving on from the CEO role, with Valdene Reddy taking the reins with effect from 1 April 2026. Reddy inherits a company with a 12-month share price performance of 41% – and that’s always a nice way to start.

The company separately announced that Ben Kruger will be stepping down as the lead independent director at the AGM in May.


Libstar’s potential acquirers have fizzled out (JSE: LBR)

This is exactly why it’s called “trading under cautionary”

Having previously spent several years of my career in corporate advisory capacities, I can tell you that many deals fall over during the negotiation process. This is why cautionary announcements should be taken literally – you need to exercise caution in these situations to avoid being burnt.

Here’s what the burn can look like: Libstar’s share price was trading around 9% lower in mid-afternoon trade after the company withdrew the cautionary announcement related to negotiations with potential suitors. Encouraged no doubt by the recent performance in the company, Libstar’s view is that the negotiations were undervaluing the shares in the company.

They don’t actually indicate the pricing of the potential offer, so we have no way of knowing how far apart the acquirers and the board actually were.

The bigger question is whether the meaningful gains in the share price will at least partially stick, as the company performance has been on the up. Time will tell.


Merafe kicks the can down the road at its smelters (JSE: MRF)

The game of cat-and-mouse with government and Eskom continues

As we saw in Merafe’s trading statement at the end of last week, recent trading at the company has been poor. This is because smelters have been switched off while Merafe tries to secure a sustainable electricity deal with Eskom.

We can spend all day debating whether or not it’s fair for a particular sector to get a favourable electricity tariff. In reality, the government will assess this based on the cost/benefit to the country. And if something isn’t done for Merafe’s electricity price, jobs are going to be lost.

With government and Eskom giving in-principle support to an electricity tariff of 62 cents per kWh, it seems like Merafe has a chance here. With some careful wording in the announcement around how the exact Ts & Cs of the tariff will make all the difference, Merafe has decided to extend the s189 consultation termination date from 28 February 2026 to 31 March 2026.

Or, put differently, they are making it clear to government that the job losses will still happen if the tariff doesn’t come through at the right levels.


A huge year for MTN (JSE: MTN)

MTN Nigeria and MTN Ghana have been fantastic for the group numbers

After MTN Nigeria released excellent numbers on Friday, it was MTN Ghana’s turn to impress the market on Monday. As the cherry on top, this triggered the release of a trading statement by MTN as the group company.

Let’s deal with the trading statement first before digging into the segmental performance. MTN has flagged that HEPS will increase from R1.10 per share (restated FY24 base) to between R12.64 and R12.84 per share. That’s an increase of more than 11x!

This certainly isn’t reflective of how things are going in South Africa, with MTN noting pressure in the prepaid business. They don’t specifically say it, but we know that Cell C (JSE: CCD) and especially Telkom (JSE: TKG) are giving the bigger players plenty to think about in that space.

This kind of earnings increase is only possible thanks to the volatility in the African subsidiaries. MTN Nigeria swung from losses into substantial profits thanks to a vastly different forex reality, while MTN Ghana achieved strong growth in profits.

Looking more closely at MTN Ghana as the new information in the market, we find that service revenue was up 36.2% and EBITDA increased by 43.5%. EBITDA margin expanded to 60.1%, an increase of 300 basis points. Although there was a 30.2% increase in depreciation based on the capex programme in that country, the EBITDA growth was enough to propel a 49.0% increase in profit before tax.

The investment in Ghana continues, with capex excluding leases up 46.7%. Capex intensity increased from 17.4% to 18.8%.

Unlike in Nigeria where voice revenue remains a strong growth driver, Ghana only reported growth of 7.8% in that type of revenue. Data revenue was up 48.8% and digital more than doubled year-on-year.

With stable inflation in Ghana of between 6% and 10%, these are impressive results. The market will now wait and see what the picture looks like in South Africa for MTN, with the huge recovery in Africa having driven positive share price moves.


A headline loss at Thungela, but for an unusual reason (JSE: TGA)

Accounting gymnastics aside, it’s still a negative update

Headline Earnings Per Share – the HEPS reference that you keep seeing in Ghost Bites – is usually a good indicator of maintainable earnings. The idea is that it removes many of the non-recurring items. But sometimes, we find ourselves in a situation where it still ends up being skewed.

The latest trading statement from Thungela is one such example. While a whopping R8.8 billion worth of impairments is excluded from HEPS, the inability to recognise deferred tax assets is not.

This has contributed to a most unfortunate situation where HEPS has swung into the red, with an expected loss of R5.50 to R7.50 per share. In the comparable period, it was a profit of R25.59 per share.

Much as the drop is due to non-cash items, suggesting that Thungela still generated positive cash flow, the reality is that these impairments reflect a tough outlook for coal. If you can’t recognise deferred tax assets, it’s because you have a dim view on having enough taxable income available to offset the tax credits.

To put some numbers to the state of play, the Richards Bay Benchmark coal price fell 15% and the Newcastle Benchmark coal price was down 22% year-on-year. The world is working hard to reduce reliance on fossil fuels. At some point, this has to start impacting demand, and thus prices.

The market will largely look through the impairments, as this is a typical example of a company where the near-term cash flow is what matters. The long-term value of Thungela isn’t the major component of the current valuation.


Nibbles:

  • Director dealings:
    • KAP (JSE: KAP) announced that a director of the holding company sold shares worth R3.3 million, in anticipation of his resignation from the board on 30 April 2026. Separately, the company announced that major subsidiary PG Bison has sold shares in KAP worth R270k.
    • The CEO of Spear REIT (JSE: SEA) is out there buying shares for his family again, this time to the value of almost R100k.
    • A director of Visual International (JSE: VIS) sold shares worth R35k. Separately, an associate of a different director sold shares worth R6.6k.
  • Exxaro (JSE: EXX) has concluded the acquisition of manganese assets from Ntsimbintle Holdings and OMH Mauritius. This is a R10.6 billion deal that gives Exxaro control over the Tshipi Borwa Mine (the world’s 4th largest manganese mine), along with exposure to other assets. You may find this interesting: the Kalahari Manganese Field is home to around 80% of the world’s known manganese resources. Exxaro’s cash buffer of R12 – R15 billion is a thing of the past after this deal, with the company reviewing the capital allocation framework. The company has also noted that the Mokala Sale Transaction remains subject to fulfilment of conditions precedent by 27 February 2027.
  • Here’s one for shareholders in both KAP (JSE: KAP) and Sasol (JSE: SOL). KAP’s subsidiary, Safripol, relies on Sasol for the supply of propylene and ethylene under evergreen supply agreements. But the parties have had disputes over pricing and volumes, with the matter currently in arbitration. KAP has delivered a bloody nose in the form of the arbitrator ruling in favour of Safripol (in terms of pricing). Sasol could technically apply to the High Court for a review of the award, but Safripol is applying plenty of pressure elsewhere through complaints to the Competition Commission and applications to the Competition Tribunal. The dispute around the volume commitment is still in arbitration as well.
  • AfroCentric (JSE: ACT) released a trading statement for the year ended 31 December 2025. HEPS is expected to be between 13.5 cents and 14.25 cents, a huge increase vs. 3.80 cents in the prior period. Before you get too excited, there’s a change in the year-end in the prior period that affects the year-on-year comparability of numbers. There are also some significant impairments that are excluded from HEPS, but which indicate pressure in certain segments. On the plus side, the administration and managed care operations did well, as did the capitation lines of business (a specific type of healthcare payment model) in dental and managed care.
  • Nampak (JSE: NPK) announced that Glenn Fullerton is resigning from his role as CFO. He will step down on 31 August 2026, giving the company time to find a suitable replacement. He’s certainly been there through thick and thin with the group, having been appointed back in 2015.
  • Attbid has acquired additional shares in RMB Holdings (JSE: RMH) to take the total stake to 7% of the shares in issue. Based on this share purchase, the aggregate stake of all concert parties (including Atterbury Property Fund) is 39.90%.
  • Transpaco (JSE: TPC) has decided to walk away from the acquisition of Premier Plastics after the Competition Commission prohibited the deal. There are appeal structures in place, but it’s a long and expensive road. They’ve opted to rather call it a day on this one.
  • Kore Potash (JSE: KP2) announced that under its formal sale process, two parties have been evaluating a potential acquisition of the company. One party has decided to walk away “for internal reasons” – whatever those might be. This leaves one party remaining. The competitive tension has now left the room though, so one wonders how this might affect the price. In a separate announcement, the company confirmed that it has acquired a further 0.46% in the company that holds its potash projects. This take their stake up to 97.46%. The additional 0.46% is being acquired for $1 million in cash. Importantly, Kore Potash has been granted the right to acquire the remaining 2.54% if an offer comes through for the entire group, essentially a “come-along” right that you would see in a typical shareholders agreement. For added complexity, regardless of how an offer would or wouldn’t be structured, the Republic of Congo has the right to own 10% of the project as a free carry. Kore Potash is still waiting for the government to indicate which entity will hold the 10%.
  • Here’s a notable board appointment for you: Prof Adrian Saville, a very well-known figure in the asset management and business strategy space, has joined the board of 4Sight Holdings (JSE: 4SI) as part of two new appointments to the board. The other appointment is Tshepo Shabangu, who brings plenty of experience to the board. 4Sight Holdings is a small cap that behaves a lot like a much bigger company. Usually, that’s a sign that the journey to becoming much more valuable will be a success!

RCL Foods interim 2026 results: continuous improvement initiatives support profitability

RCL Foods financials for the six months ended December 2025

“While adverse sugar-market dynamics weighed on overall group results, the balance of the business delivered an improved underlying performance, reflecting disciplined execution and effective management of factors within
our control.”

Paul Cruickshank – Chief Executive Officer

Key Features

  • Good underlying Groceries result
  • Continuous improvement initiatives continue to support profitability across the business
  • Volumes remain subdued across most categories

Financial Highlights

  • Revenue continuing operations -1.9% to R13.3 billion
  • Underlying EBITDA continuing operations -14.6% to R1.2 billion
  • Underlying HEPS continuing operations -22.4% to 77.4 cents
  • HEPS total operations -30.6% to 75.9 cents
  • Interim dividend per share -25.0% to 15.0 cents

Operational Review

Groceries (Culinary, Pet Food, Beverages)

Groceries delivered a good underlying result driven by improved margins in Culinary, higher Pet food volumes and a favourable product mix in Beverages.

Culinary represents a core pillar of our growth strategy and sits at the heart of our branded value proposition. We delivered a positive result in a highly competitive market. Although volumes were down 1.1% compared to the prior period, higher
margins due to CI and NRM initiatives, contributed to the improved result. Whilst the volume decline was largely due to prevailing market conditions, peanut butter was further impacted by cheaper, duty-free imports as the tariff application
remains with government for approval.

Pet food delivered an improved result versus the prior period driven primarily by higher volumes (up 2.2% compared to the prior period), partially offset by higher production and distribution costs incurred as part of the focus on improving service levels. We are driving distribution depth in new and growing channels and have a clear plan to grow within the speciality-pet and retail-spinoff channels, which is a strategic focus.

As referenced in our media release issued on 1 March 2026, production at our dry pet food plant was temporarily paused. This affected our ability to fully service demand towards the latter part of the current period and into the second half of
the financial year. Processes to restart the facility have commenced, with full production expected to resume shortly.

Despite lower volumes (down 9.3% compared to the prior period), Beverage delivered a result which was ahead of the prior period, due to focused efforts to drive a more profitable product mix and CI cost savings.

Baking (Bread, Buns and Rolls, Milling, Pies, Speciality)

Baking delivered an underlying performance in line with the prior period, amidst a challenging trading environment, with volume declines across the Bread, Buns and Rolls, and Milling categories offset by good performances in Pies and Speciality.

The Bread, Buns and Rolls operating unit saw a 4.1% volume decline from the previous period, mainly due to intensified competition in the price-sensitive bread market. We continue to focus on manufacturing excellence while driving innovation in the category.

Milling volumes declined 8.3% compared to the prior period due to weaker demand, resulting in a decline in the Milling result. Our priorities for the second half of the financial year will be to regain lost volumes as well as delivering on the CI initiatives.

Pies delivered an improved result, with volumes increasing by 3.0% compared to the prior period. The volume benefit was partially offset by an unrecovered increase in red-meat pricing following the foot and mouth disease outbreak that began in early 2025. Pies growth on the prior period was further supported by CI savings.

Speciality has delivered another good result, despite marginally lower volumes, through successful innovations and operational efficiencies.

Sugar (Sugar, Molatek Molasses-Based Animal Feed)

Sugar continues to experience significant headwinds and volatility due to inadequate tariff protection, declining world market prices and the strengthening Rand which have resulted in a substantial increase in deep sea imports adversely impacting the results. Local market volumes have been displaced by the high volumes of deep sea imported sugar, resulting in a higher proportion of local sugar supply having to be sold in the lower priced export market. The latest import duty gazetted on 4 December 2025 remains insufficient to protect the local market from the influx of imported sugar. Additionally, local market sales pricing remained unchanged, creating margin pressure as input cost increases were absorbed. Despite these challenges, the business performed well operationally through
continuous improvements at our mills.

The Malelane mill has shown a notable operational improvement as operational processes have been systematically established and refined.

The quality of the cane crop is good, supported by an enhanced fertiliser and irrigation programme.

Molatek was down on the prior period with volumes declining by 13.9% from the comparative period, primarily due to increased rainfall which boosted natural grazing resources, and continued challenges related to the foot and mouth
disease outbreak.

VIEW THE SHORT FORM ANNOUNCEMENT BELOW:

JOB030973_RCL_SFA_Interims

RCL Foods is a South African food manufacturer producing more than 20 much-loved brands including Yum Yum peanut butter, Nola mayonnaise, Ouma rusks, Pieman’s pies, Number 1 mageu, Sunbake and Sunshine bread, Supreme flour, Selati sugar, Bobtail and Catmor pet food and Molatek animal feed.

VIEW THE FULL RESULTS HERE >>>

Note: RCL Foods values the Ghost Mail audience and the company has placed its earnings here accordingly. This article reflects the views of the company. For the views of The Finance Ghost, refer to the section in Ghost Bites dealing with these results.

Ghost Bites (Brait | Merafe | MTN Nigeria | Northam Platinum | Vukile Property Fund)

Brait has reduced its stake in Premier Group (JSE: BAT | JSE: PMR)

They have raised around R1 billion in the process

Sometimes you get a cold call offering you an insurance quote; other times it’s because someone wants to buy R1 billion in shares from you. Not all cold calls are created equal!

After receiving unsolicited interest from a number of institutional investors, Brait decided to reduce its stake in Premier Group. They raised roughly R1 billion through the sale of 5.6 million ordinary shares in Premier at R177.50 per share, a 3% discount to the 30-day volume-weighted average price (VWAP).

This works out to around 4.4% of Premier’s shares in issue. Brait’s stake is reducing from 28.7% to 24.3%, so they still have plenty of exposure to Premier.

Brait’s indicated use of the proceeds is as vague as it comes: general working capital purposes, potential investment in existing portfolio companies and repayment of group debt.


As expected, Merafe’s numbers are going to be horrible (JSE: MRF)

They are still profitable, but they were desperate for help from NERSA

Merafe has released a trading statement for the year ended December 2025. The period is critical here, as a year is a long time in a business that is gently falling over. Based on the timing of smelters being shut off during the year, the results towards the end of the period will be very different to what we saw at the start.

The Lion Smelter is up and running again as of 16 February 2026, with NERSA having given them a lifeline in the form of a lower electricity tariff for 12 months.

And believe me, “lifeline” is the word. For the year to December, HEPS fell by between 62% and 82%. The fundamentals in ferrochrome have been weak, while electricity price increases have made most of the smelters economically unviable.

The NERSA relief is really just a Band-Aid, not a long-term solution. Despite this, the share price is up 8% over 12 months. It trades at a low Price/Earnings multiple, but it’s beyond me how this share price has held up so well.

Although only a small part of Glencore’s (JSE: GLN) business, the performance of Merafe is relevant to shareholders in Glencore as the ferrochrome operations are a joint venture.


MTN Nigeria, the most important African subsidiary in the group, had a great 2025 (JSE: MTN)

Business in the rest of Africa is all about the macroeconomic timing

MTN’s key subsidiary, MTN Nigeria, has released its results for the year ended December 2025. With subscribers up 7.9% and service revenue increasing by 55.1%, you already know that this is a positive story.

Before moving on to the profits, I want to mention that voice revenue was up by 42.1%. This is immense growth in what is essentially a legacy business for the telco players. Data revenue grew by 74.5% and fintech revenue was up 79.7%, so voice is really holding its own there.

EBITDA more than doubled, taking EBITDA margin up by 13.6 percentage points to 52.7%. Most importantly, profit after tax swung spectacularly from negative N400.4 billion to positive N1.1 trillion. This is thanks to a fantastic (and lucky) change in fortunes for African currencies vs. the US dollar. MTN Nigeria, like many other businesses in Africa, was on a very concerning trajectory before the dollar started weakening.

Although capital expenditure more than doubled, earnings were strong enough that free cash flow more than tripled to N1.2 trillion.

As great as this is, their target is to get EBITDA margin slightly higher. They believe it can increase to the mid-to-high 50s from the current level of 52.7%. They are also targeting ongoing average service revenue growth of at least 20%.

It’s worth noting that headline inflation in the country averaged 23.4% for the year, so revenue growth rates need to be above that level just for the group to achieve real growth (not just nominal growth).


Northam Platinum’s HEPS is 25x higher than the prior period (JSE: NPH)

And no, that isn’t a typo

Northam Platinum has released interim results for the six months to December 2025. The numbers are a bit of a joke, really. You’re about to see why PGM stocks climb so rapidly when the metal prices increase.

At the top of the income statement, we find a 60% increase in revenue. A 13.7% increase in metal sold certainly helps, but the real story is that the 6E basket price was up 57.2% in US dollars. The 6E price in rand was up 44.6%. Sure, there was a 2.7% decrease in the average chrome price in rand, but that’s a minor blemish on the story.

The cash margin per equivalent refined 6E ounce jumped from 21.1% to 41.2%. When your margins nearly double, exciting things happen to your income statement.

Operating profit jumped by 439% (over 5x higher) to R5.8 billion, taking operating profit margin from 7.5% to 25.1%. Yes, there’s a particularly weak base effect here, but it’s still a great outcome.

By the time we get to HEPS, the numbers are even more ridiculous. With the full effect of operating leverage (fixed costs) and financial leverage (debt) coming through, Northam’s HEPS moved from R0.61 cents to R15.24 per share. That really is ridiculous, reflecting an increase in HEPS of 25x!

Nobody really knows where the PGM prices will go, but things are certainly looking much better for the sector. Northam’s credit rating has even moved from a stable to a positive outlook.

But what is your outlook?


Vukile’s Spanish subsidiary enters Madrid (JSE: VKE)

Castellana is acquiring Islazul Shopping Centre

Vukile Property Fund announced that Castellana Properties, its 99.7%-held Spanish subsidiary, is acquiring Islazul Shopping Centre in Madrid. If you can believe it, this is the first property that the fund will own in the capital city!

The pricing seems to finally be attractive in Madrid, with Castellana keen to take advantage of high growth in the population. Madrid is a city that people want to move to, rather than run away from, as evidenced by a growth rate that is more than double the national average of Spain.

Through initiatives like being added to Castellana’s asset management platform, enhancing the tenant mix and undertaking various capital improvement projects, Vukile believes that they can unlock additional net operating income of €2.2 million over five years. They will also benefit from an important metro line that is scheduled for completion in 2027, adding further potential footfall to what is already a highly populated area.

And while I’m skeptical of awards in general, it’s worth noting that this centre is recognised as “the most sustainable shopping centre in the world” – something that Europeans absolutely love. I presume this includes plenty of natural light, which certainly does make for a more pleasurable shopping experience.

The asset price is €318.4 million, calculated using a base price of €340 million before adjustments. Castellana is buying the shares in the property company, not the property itself. This means that there are liabilities as well. It looks like the price for the shares is €202.2 million, with potential small adjustments for working capital changes.

€30 million is deferred until 15 December 2026, with the remainder payable on the closing date (expected to be 30 April 2026).

The net initial yield is 6.5%. Thanks to the cheap debt available in Europe, the senior debt to fund the acquisition helps boost this to a cash-on-cash yield in excess of 8%. They are planning a loan-to-value ratio of 48%.

In addition, Castellana will fund a capex tranche of €12.5 million with an expected return of around 10% based on the €2.2 million uplift that they are targeting.

Frustratingly, the announcement doesn’t give historical financial information. They only indicate the forecast profits for the 11 months to March 2027 (on the assumption they acquire it at the end of April 2026) and then the 12 months to March 2028. It’s also not entirely clear to me whether the forecasts include the €2.2 million uplift. Either way, for the year to March 2028, they expect net profit after tax of €22.8 million and profit available for distribution of €14.4 million.

It’s only a Category 2 transaction under JSE rules, so this is as much information as we are going to get at this stage. There is no shareholder vote required on this transaction.


Nibbles:

  • Director dealings:
    • This is an unusual one, but worth mentioning. Jubilee Metals (JSE: JBL) announced that the CEO and CFO received shares worth over R4.1 million for the successful disposal of the South African operations. Why is this relevant? It seems as though they had the choice to receive cash, but they elected to receive shares instead.
    • A director of Dipula Properties (JSE: DIB) sold shares worth over R1.1 million.
    • A director of Sasol (JSE: SOL) sold shares worth R925k.
    • A director of KAL Group (JSE: KAL) bought shares worth R593k.
    • The CFO of Mantengu (JSE: MTU) bought shares worth R39.5k.
  • MC Mining (JSE: MCZ) is now 44.01% held by Kinetic Development Group. This provided the funding they need for the Makhado Project, which is moving towards achieving first coal production. Steady-state production is expected to be reached by the end of this year. They now employ 970 people, of whom 435 are from the Makhado municipal area. This is the value of private sector investment vs. a bloated government trying to create unsustainable jobs.
  • Remgro (JSE: REM) has renewed the cautionary announcement related to a potential restructuring of the company’s interests in Mediclinic. As you might recall, Remgro is in negotiations with Mediterranean Shipping Company (MSC) to execute a transaction that would lead to Remgro owning the South African assets and MSC owning the offshore assets. It makes a lot of sense to me strategically, so I hope Remgro gets it right.
  • PPC (JSE: PPC) announced that PPC Zimbabwe is still trying to sell the Arlington Property to Transvaal Africa for $30 million. The deal was first announced in August 2025 and has been through a few challenges, including a land claim by a Zimbabwe housing cooperative! The High Court of Zimbabwe dismissed that claim with costs. Thanks to all the hurdles, the parties have extended the “date for milestone events” to 30 June 2026.
  • Ethos Capital (JSE: EPE) has completed the sale of the so-called Residual Assets for R640 million. This leaves them with only the investment in Optasia (JSE: OPA) and the economic participation in Chronos Capital via the Ethos Artificial Intelligence Fund I (B) Partnership. The large pro-rata repurchase of shares by Ethos Capital is planned for 9th March, funded through these proceeds and the partial sale of Optasia during the IPO process.
  • Jubilee Metals (JSE: JBL) has updated the market on some important developments in the strategic thinking. With the operating assets now exclusively in Zambia, they are looking to change the board over time to reflect that reality (vs. the historical split between SA and Zambia). They are also preparing for future cash returns to shareholders, including a possible conversion of share premium reserves into distributable reserves.
  • Collins Property Group (JSE: CPP) is looking to implement a new employee share plan. They’ve issued a circular and called a shareholder meeting to approve it. If you have a material position here, I suggest you give it a read.
  • NEPI Rockcastle (JSE: NRP) has issued a circular dealing with the choice between cash dividends and a reduction of capital.
  • Shuka Minerals (JSE: SKA) has received more results from analysis of field samples collected at Kabwe Mine. The results support the thesis around high zinc and lead grades at the surface.
  • Africa Bitcoin Corporation (JSE: BACA) has bought another 0.4742 BTC for R512k. Perhaps the bigger story is that they’ve borrowed R2.1 million, with around a quarter used for this purchase of bitcoin and the rest used to settle a more expensive facility. There’s a small balance left for the SME lending business. Their average acquisition price is R1.56 million per BTC and the latest purchase was at a price below R1.1 million per BTC. This doesn’t exactly strike me as an asset that should be bought with debt.
  • Salungano Group (JSE: SLG) is still suspended from trading on the JSE. This means that the group needs to release a quarterly progress report. The reason for the suspension is that they are far behind with financial reporting. For example, the AGM for the year ended March 2024 was only held in November 2025! They are catching up though, with the plan being that FY25 results will be released by the end of March 2026. FY26 interims are expected to be released by the end of April 2026. Based on this expectation, the suspension is expected to be lifted by June 2026.
  • It looks like Efora Energy (JSE: EEL) is still going to be suspended from trading for a while. The company is trading under cautionary and is looking to finalise those negotiations before advising the market on the approach to be taken to releasing the 2025 annual reports.
  • Another one in the naughty corner is Wesizwe Platinum (JSE: WEZ), where they are aiming to release the financials for the six months to June 2025 by no later than 31 March 2026. The financials for the year ended December 2025 are planned to be released by 30 April 2026.

Ghost Stories #93: Budget Speech 2026 – a pivot to stability

Listen to the show using this podcast player:

South Africa’s 2026 Budget Speech announced a mix of bold, interesting and ultimately positive changes – especially for small businesses and South African investors. With pro-business policies that signal economic stability, could this be a turning point for the country?

Described affectionately by Tertius Troost (Associate Director – Tax Consulting at Forvis Mazars) as a “boring” budget, this is the first time in years that we’ve seen any kind of tax relief for South Africa’s middle class. In his words, it’s a pivot to stability – and at a time when things are really looking up for South Africa.

He joined me on this podcast to break down the budget basics and to specifically comment on areas like:

  • How the budget addresses “bracket creep” by adjusting personal income tax brackets for inflation. 
  • The increase in the VAT registration threshold and how this assists small businesses.
  • A boost for investors in the form of a higher annual limit for Tax-Free Savings Accounts (TFSA).
  • The approach taken to online gambling and whether education and regulation should precede taxes.
  • Other changes aimed at helping South Africans with retirements savings and even global investments.

You can connect with Tertius on LinkedIn here.

As always, please discuss the impact of the tax changes on your affairs with your personal financial advisor. Nothing you hear on this podcast should be interpreted as advice.

Full transcript:

The Finance Ghost: Welcome to this episode of the Ghost Stories podcast. We are coming to you very soon after the budget speech in South Africa, which is obviously a really interesting time for all of us. 

And I think this 2026 budget speech has been quite different, actually. My overview is that it feels a bit more pro-growth; maybe a bit more pro-business. We are in a GNU environment now, so winds of change seem to have been blowing a little bit at least. 

To help us understand some of the key elements of this budget speech, I am joined today by Tertius Troost. He is the associate director in the tax consulting team at Forvis Mazars. He’s also no stranger to the Ghost Mail audience because we had a very similar podcast last year. 

So, Tertius, thanks so much for doing this with me again in 2026; I can’t wait to get your thoughts on this budget.

Tertius Troost: Brilliant, thanks for having me.

The Finance Ghost: It’s going to be good. There’s a lot of stuff we can talk about here, and I think what we’re going to not do is try and just give a general overview of everything because to be honest, there’s been a lot of that in the market already. What we’re rather going to do is actually dig into some of the specific points. 

But we do need to set the scene at least a little bit, right? So let me start by asking you if you feel like my gut feeling is on the money. Is this more of a pro-growth type budget? It feels to me like they’re being a bit nicer these days to businesses, to the middle class. Would that be a fair assertion?

Tertius Troost: Ya, I’ll summarise it in two ways. I think yesterday’s budget is definitely the turning-point type of narrative. It sees a lot of stabilising of debt. We saw that from next year onwards, we definitely should see a decrease in the debt-to-GDP ratio, where it’s going to peak at about 78.9%. 

And then obviously, as you said, definitely pro-growth with changes to the thresholds, which is something that we’ve been waiting for, for quite a long time. To summarise, it has a little bit of excitement, but at the same time, it’s actually also a boring budget. But in this environment, a boring budget is actually a good budget.

And then obviously the main talking point: while it’s also probably good for growth and good for the man on the street, it’s just the withdrawal of the bracket creep that they actually said they would be implementing last year for the next two years. So I mean that’s very positive for people to see. 

Generally, it also has a culture of better savings, looking to increase the thresholds there. It’s generally a budget that was well-received by the public.

The Finance Ghost: Yeah, it feels like we’re in a better macroeconomic environment now than we have been in a very long time. 

And obviously, that takes some of the pressure off, right? Because at the end of the day, the budget is the income statement for our government. If the economy is not doing well and investment is not coming through, then obviously there’s more pressure on the fiscus. 

Because we do have a somewhat left-leaning, somewhat socialist government where there are a lot of social grants, there’s a lot of support for the poor – you end up in a scenario where they have to squeeze more from this very small tax base. That’s certainly been the narrative for as long as I can remember. Literally. 

I guess at the moment things like commodities, for example, are helping, right? I mean you’ve literally got money coming out of the ground right now in gold, in PGMs. Our tourism has been doing well (as another example).

It feels like things are doing better in South Africa and maybe this budget reflects that?

Tertius Troost: Yes, I mean macro wise, when you look at the budget review document, they predict growth of 1.6% in ‘26 and going up to 1.8% and 2% up in 2028. So it’s still not shooting the lights out, but it does at least come off as a very low base. We were looking at growth south of 1%.

So this is the point – as soon as we can get the economy growing, we can increase tax revenue. We can definitely see that the increased tax revenue will lead to – well, hopefully – better use of that tax revenue. Thereby growing the economy organically and growing the tax base, which we’ve always said is the most important. 

You have to highlight the fact that what the commodities are doing is a very important factor here. It is very cyclical, it’s not something that will remain there forever. So while that is a positive sentiment and while we’re getting good money from it, I think the tax is going to do well. 

I think the big picture from this budget is relief where it counts. It’s definitely support for small businesses, and it’s a pivot to stability. And that is the essential part.

The Finance Ghost: Pivot to stability is a nice way to put it. I like it. And also just describing it as boring. Like you say, boring is good. And people forget, when it comes to economic growth, that when you’re in a slow-growth environment, if your country is expected to do 1% and then suddenly it’s expected to do 1.5%, it’s actually growing 50% faster than before. 

It’s like that law of small numbers. 1.5% is 50% bigger than 1% in terms of growth. It’s 50 basis points more. It’s a really big difference. It makes a huge, huge difference. And that’s why we’ve got to try and actually extract this growth so that everyone can benefit. 

And it comes through in things like as you described it there, bracket creep. So for those who are maybe not familiar with the term, it just means (by my understanding) that for years, a good few years, we haven’t really had an increase in the brackets for personal tax. And so people’s salaries go up with inflation, in theory at least. 

But your effective average tax rate goes up because the brackets haven’t moved with inflation, right? But now they’ve actually moved them. So have they done a proper catch-up in the past few years (in this move) or have they just given a little bit of year-on-year relief?

Tertius Troost: Let me just give an analogy for the listeners, so they can better understand.  This weekend we’ve got the SA Open (golf tournament). Let’s use that as an example. 

Let’s say you go to play at Stellenbosch Golf Club every week; you’re teeing off of the same markers, you’re very consistent off the tee and going into the green for two. And then you arrive there one day and you see it’s been the SA open, the tee box is right at the back with the pros, and they’ve put the tee box there. And all of a sudden you hit the same tee shot and you’re sitting with a position where you just say, “Well, I can’t make it to the green”. And that’s pretty much what bracket creep is. Right?

The Finance Ghost: I love that.

Tertius Troost: It’s just a little bit of a sneaky way of getting a little bit more tax out of you. And it’s a sneaky way because it gets it from a number of people. 

Again, let’s use an example. I earn R300,000 per year. I get an inflationary increase of 6% (let’s just say inflation is 6%). That actually puts me in the same position I was in last year. From a purchasing point of view, I can only buy the same amount of goods with this increase.

But now they didn’t change the brackets. So the tax I will pay on the increase, the R318,000 salary after my increase, will actually be slightly higher. That is the impact. 

So your tax on that is just that little bit more and it’s very small. But once again, if you take a little bit off each and every single person, it leads to significantly more income to the fiscus.

And then I think the point is the brackets were only adjusted for 3.4% because as we know with the SARB trying to cap the inflation rate nearer to the 3%, that is what they believe inflation is now. 

But it is interesting to note, that’s not everyone’s inflation. For your high earners, the inflation is significantly higher because they’re buying different goods. [Laughs].

It is a little bit of a relief. It’s not significant, but it’s at least something.

The Finance Ghost: I love the golf analogy. It is exactly that, right? One year you’re arriving for the club champs and the next day you are suddenly playing against Ernie Els. That’s certainly what it’s felt like for the past decade – like teeing off against Ernie. It still feels a bit like that, but maybe it’s starting to get better, which is nice. 

Another area where I think they’ve given important relief (and specifically as a small business owner, and I think this is really important) is that VAT registration threshold. It used to be a million rand a year in turnover.

Now, most business owners will tell you that a million rand a year turnover is really not a lot. That’s not a million rand a year profit, that’s not gross margin, it’s turnover. So that’s before any of your expenses whatsoever. A million rand a year revenue is not a big business in any way, shape or form. 

And yet there was this requirement to register for VAT. Now, that might not sound like a big deal, and for businesses that are supplying other VAT-registered businesses, it’s not a big deal because your customers just claim back the VAT. It’s not the end of the world. 

But if you are a consumer-facing business, you are essentially the last step in the chain. And that’s how VAT works. It’s Value-Added Tax. So it just keeps on growing through the value chain, until you hit someone who’s not VAT registered – and that person is basically suffering all the VAT and can’t claim it back. 

But if you are supplying people who are not VAT-registered and you suddenly have to register for VAT, you are basically having 15% ripped out of your income and going to the government. Which on turnover of a million rand a year, is a little bit insane. 

So I was personally happy to see (as someone who has small businesses at heart all the time), that they’ve increased that threshold quite a lot. I mean it’s up significantly now?

Tertius Troost: Yeah. So the threshold moved up from R1 million to R2.3 million in annual turnover, as you pointed out. And what is important to note, is that this was last amended in 2009. That’s 17 years ago. This had to happen.

The Finance Ghost: It’s insane right? It’s so long. 17 years! [Laughs]. 

Tertius Troost: And I’m also a homeowner, so I also have people coming across needing to fix things every now and then. And every time someone adds that 15% to your bill, then you feel “ugh!” – you can feel that tangibly; you can feel it in your pocket. 

So hopefully you get to a position where the smaller businesses that we sometimes use don’t need to register, they’re not adding the 15% on top of it. And maybe that at least means some money in their pocket, too. 

If you’re actually adding certain value, as you said, you could claim certain inputs if you are registered for VAT, but that’s not for all small businesses. By lifting the threshold, Treasury is effectively removing certain businesses from the VAT net and promoting smaller businesses. 

That means that there’s less time for them on compliance. As you pointed out, that is a significant cost for a small business who doesn’t necessarily understand it. It results in more predictable cash flow, you’re not having to claim inputs and flow outputs. It’s the ability to price more competitively. You’re no longer carrying that 15%. You can compete against the bigger businesses if you don’t need to add that.

It’s a subtle acknowledgement of the economic reality – inflation and rising costs have pushed the businesses up. This R1 million threshold is way too low. The R2.3 million is more in line with what it should be. 

Take note, it’s 17 years. It’s more than double. But I think if you were to increase that with inflation, it would probably be even more. But at least it shows you that they are looking into these types of things. Hopefully they will keep these thresholds and brackets and limits, and they’ll just review them on a more regular basis. Because there were quite a few of these thresholds that will change in this budget.

The Finance Ghost: Yeah, absolutely. 17 years to not go anywhere, is absolutely bonkers. And as you say, it’s the compliance burden, right? And also, SARS’ behavior with VAT. If you throw a stone in a room full of entrepreneurs, I promise you’ll hit someone who has waited for a VAT refund for an unreasonably long time. I’ve heard that story so many times, so it’s nice to hear that that is improving. 

I think that probably gives us a nice lay of the land of some of the really important changes. There are many more, and we’ll obviously touch on some of them now. But something that keeps coming up – and now that we are in earnings season, I’m seeing it again – is that every consumer-facing business in the country right now, when they talk about the macroeconomic environment and what’s happening to their sales, etc, they keep raising this point around online gambling and gaming. 

There’s a piece of me that thinks that at least to some extent, it’s a convenient scapegoat, but there’s also an element of truth to it. People are spending a fortune on this stuff. It is an extractive industry, essentially. It’s not leading to employment of South Africans, etcetera. The money’s going overseas.

It feels like an easy place for government to actually have a go here. It’s practically a sin tax. So I’m curious about what their thinking is on taxing and getting their fair share of this. Maybe if it was actually taxed properly then it would be slightly less appealing for people and they would spend a little bit less on online gambling and gaming and a little bit more in our economy, which is ultimately what creates jobs?

Tertius Troost: Let’s just maybe take a step back, (to ask) – what is it? I mean it’s a national online gambling tax and it’s looking to tax 20% on the gross gambling revenue (they refer to the GGR) which is the net amount that these institutions receive, less what they pay out.

Now, this is on top of existing provincial gambling taxes, which can range between 5% and 9%.

And what’s interesting in Treasury’s discussion document is that they say this is not a revenue driver. This is just to stop, as you said, the social harms and discourage problem gambling. And as you mentioned, there’s a lot of talk about people using grants to gamble, students using the amounts that they receive to gamble. That’s not sustainable. 

But in terms of where we are at with the process, Treasury has released the discussion paper. The public comments closed on Friday, and following that, they will then relook at the public comments and try to draft the bill around it. That’s also open, once again, the draft legislation to public comment, to see whether it fulfils.

But I wanted to talk about whether this actually will work – because as you stated, we’re trying to discourage online gambling. As you said, Treasury said it’s not a revenue driver, it’s to discourage. 

But the problem is – shouldn’t you regulate first and tax second? Because if we take an example of someone smoking, they did a lot more around the behaviour change and then taxed thereafter. They regulated the way they advertised; they regulated where you could smoke. So maybe they should first look at those elements and then if need be, say yes, okay, let’s add the sin tax.

The further point is, this is a tax that’s proposed on the actual corporate entity and not on the individual. If you’re trying to change behavior, you should actually do more taxes on individuals. If sin taxes are on the product that the people use, then they don’t want to use it. Shouldn’t (government) be looking at certain withholding taxes – on either winnings or on the amounts that they’re betting? That will maybe look at changing the use of it. 

I think the first point that Treasury should look at is just the regulation around gambling and the effective policing thereof, and thereafter maybe looking at “Okay, let’s see if we can tax”. 

But the other point is, I know Treasury says it’s not a revenue driver, but I don’t believe it. 

All taxes in South Africa are revenue drivers. We look at the sugar tax in the past. It had a nice story around it of, “we’re trying to help people to live better lives”. If you look at all that money, it just goes into a pot for the fiscus and they use it. They don’t do a specific targeted use of that. That’s just my view.

The Finance Ghost: It’s a really interesting point. They’re taxing the corporate, not the individual. That does talk to behaviour, and maybe government is not that worried about the behaviour. 

I have sometimes had these debates with people where they say, “you know, it’s so terrible that someone gambles online”. And obviously there are extremes. Taking your social grants and gambling online is clearly a no-no. 

But I don’t know so much that it’s so terrible that if you would have spent R100 on clothes you actually don’t need or you spent that R100 entertaining yourself online betting on your favorite soccer team. I mean it’s R100 out the door on something you didn’t need anyway. Is it really so terrible? Within reason, it’s ok. 

I guess it’s like anything. People want to entertain themselves, they want to have fun. As much as it might irritate the clothing retailers that they’re not selling quite as much in the way of clothing. Like I say, an extra item of clothing in the cupboard versus entertaining yourself –  is it really so different? 

So government seems to be saying, well, “we’re going to see where this thing lands, what we really want to do is just plug the tax hole, because that’s where it is a problem.” If someone buys local clothing, there’s a whole value chain, right? There’s tax, there’s earnings here – government gets a slice of that. But if you go and swipe your card and you gamble overseas, the money’s gone.

Tertius Troost: I think there have been studies though, that this isn’t necessarily in our environment only for recreational purposes. People in South Africa gamble with the belief that they can get themselves out of poverty and win a big amount. And that is the problem that we have. So it’s actually more of an education aspect in line with that. 

The Finance Ghost: That’s very fair. There’s a huge percentage – like you say, maybe the trick is, it needs to be this regulatory piece where there’s lots of education. Maybe showing people that you’re much more likely to lose than win here. This is not an income, this is a form of entertainment. That probably does need to happen out there, and hopefully it will.

That’s going to be an interesting thing to see in years to come. 

In the meantime, of course, SARS is very focused on making sure we have more taxpayers, which obviously just spreads the burden out. 

There was an interesting comment that I know you wanted to talk about, which was around a comment, and I quote, “Supported by new technology, they registered 1.3 million new taxpayers across various tax categories.” And this piece was interesting: “Engaged with social influencers to facilitate tax compliance.” 

I did have a small laugh at that. I imagined someone doing an Instagram video with the SARS logo in the background. “Brought to you by SARS. Please also register for tax”. I’m not really sure how this is working in practice, but I was curious about your thoughts on that one [Laughs]. 

Tertius Troost: [Laughs]. I thought you’d like that, Ghost. The important part there is that the registration of the 1.3 million new tax base actually brought in R4.9 in additional revenue.

Yes, Treasury did mention an aspect about content creators and influencers, but what you must also understand is that there are some people in the country that should be registered, maybe people from abroad that don’t know they’re tax resident in South Africa. 

I’ve had a few of those as clients – that arrive on my doorstep saying SARS knocked on their door because they purchased the property. They’re now on SARS’ radar. All of a sudden when I look at the facts, I see, “oh, but you’ve been a resident in the country for quite a while and you owe them quite a significant amount of tax”.

So it just shows that SARS’ technology and their administration is working well, and that the extra amount that Treasury provided to them in the budget last year is being used well when we look at investment into technology. 

The point around influencers, content creators, it’s something that has been in the media, and it’s quite topical. These people are definitely subject to tax. What is interesting, though, is that they might be subject to tax on the products that they receive in kind or the services that they receive in kind.

Sometimes when you promote the product, you are actually paid physical money. So definitely that is something that those people should be registered for – they should be paying provisional tax and they should be filing a tax return. It just goes to show, again: educate the public and tell people that there are taxes that they should look into. 

Once again, I’m very impressed with SARS under Edward Kieswetter. I know he’s ending his term now in April. We don’t have any guidance on who would be new, but at least they’re taking over a ship that seems to be sailing in the right direction, with regards to the use of technology, AI, and those types of aspects. I think it’s something positive.

The Finance Ghost: It’s amazing what happens when you put a commercial person in charge, right? But that does make sense. It’s less about using social influencers to achieve the registrations, but rather to go after the influencers themselves! 

Maybe that’s the trick. It’s like, “hey, we’ll work with you, we’ll pay you in order to get some people to register for tax”. And as you say, yes, they’re like, “Ha! Gotcha. You should be paying tax because clearly this is your business.” You’ve got to love it. 

Tertius Troost: [Laughs] 

The Finance Ghost: Anyway, let’s talk about some of the other relief that actually came through in this budget. There was one that made me very happy, which was that tax-free savings account (TFSA) contributions are now higher.

I always say to people, if you’re going to get just one thing right every year, just please max out your TFSA. And not everyone can do it. But what you should absolutely not be doing is dabbling in single stocks and everything else, if you haven’t even maxed your TFSA. It is literally the government giving you this walled garden to go and build up your ETF exposure over your lifetime. 

You can chop and change between the ETFs with no tax. You’re basically turning yourself into a little fund manager. You just have to stick to ETFs. You’re not allowed to buy single stocks. It’s such an absolute no-brainer. And I was happy to see that that contribution has gone up.

Tertius Troost: Yeah, most definitely. As you say, max it out for yourself, max it out for your spouse, max it out for your kids. It’s definitely a no-brainer. So that increased from an annual limit of R36,000 per year to R46,000 per year. But what is interesting is that they didn’t change the lifetime limit, so it’s still limited to R500,000 that you can invest in your lifetime.

But that does just change the timing. It would take you less than 11 years – if you’re doing it on an annual basis – to get to that.

There are many studies that show that if you start (saving) very early, even if you start it for your kids and you leave it for when your kids reach retirement age, they can pretty much retire off that amount. That’s how compound growth will really work. 

What I wanted to talk about was how it’s kind of hidden away, but there was some targeted relief to higher earners because, like I said, not everyone can afford the tax-free savings account and the full contribution to it. 

Also, the retirement contribution deduction cap was lifted from R350 000 to R430 000. Once again, not everyone can get close to that – but it shows that there is definitely a bit of a give-back to the higher earner if they’re willing to save. 

It says if you earn more, then Treasury wants you to save more, and if you can build capital, do it locally. So do it in our TFSAs; do it in our retirement funds. Then it’s just a structured,  incentivised financial discipline, rather than a blunt tax break. They’re not just saying, “We’re going to give you relief and keep the higher earners here”. We actually do it by providing them with additional methods to save in South Africa.

The Finance Ghost: And it’s great to see. The one thing with the tax free savings cap – and I’ve seen a lot of this as well – people are quite rightly saying, “Hey, where’s the increase in the cap?”. But of course if you do the maths, it’s been around for 11 years, as you said. So you couldn’t actually have reached the cap yet, mathematically. 

But we’re going to get there in the next couple of years, and then obviously Treasury will have to look at increasing the cap, right? Otherwise, they are punishing people who started really early, which would be silly behaviour.

Tertius Troost: If you listen to the comments by Treasury, they’re saying that – I don’t know whether they’re going to raise it. I think they’re going to keep it there for quite a while, because I mean you’re still getting that tax-free growth in it.

Hopefully – I do agree that in the future they should, but it’s probably going to be, everyone reaches the cap and they’ll probably leave it for a couple of years thereafter, before really looking at it.

The Finance Ghost: Ya absolutely. And the one thing that’s really interesting is, as you say, they’re trying to encourage you to grow your capital here in South Africa. But they’ve also made it easier to take money out of the country now, haven’t they? They’ve actually given some more relief in that as well.

Tertius Troost: Ya. That’s an exchange-control change. As we know, you can flow capital out of the country but it is subject to certain rules and regulations, specifically monitored by the Reserve Bank through the authorised dealers (which are the commercial banks). And one of those rules was that on an annual basis, without obtaining any form of tax clearance certificate, you could take R1 million out of the country. But now they’ve actually pushed that up to R2 million. So that’s also positive. 

Once again, this is not aimed at everyone. This is people trying to really hedge their bets and maybeget some hard currency offshore. So that is also just positive. It’s just a little bit less of an administrative burden for those people trying to flow money out.

The Finance Ghost: A couple of other ones we should touch on before I let you go. I know donations tax saw a change, primary residence exclusion as well – perhaps you can just take us through those?

Tertius Troost: Yeah. So with the donations tax, there was always a limit of a hundred thousand. That’s not subject to donations tax. That’s lifted to R150 000. Being a homeowner, the primary residence exclusion has lifted from R2 million to R3 million. That’s not necessarily for people owning houses in the Joburg market, it probably won’t help them much. But I know people in the Cape Town market will really love that. [Laughs]. 

The Finance Ghost: I joked with a friend, “Wow, you know, garden sheds in Cape Town are now out of the net. How exciting!” I mean, it is a bit of a joke, how ridiculous the property markets are across the two cities. 

But it was high time that they increased that primary residence exclusion, let’s be honest. I would say your Joburg property is now basically a tax-free asset from a capital gains perspective. Unfortunately. 

Tertius Troost: [Laughs]. Let me put it in the tax-free savings account, and then it’ll be regular savings.

The Finance Ghost: Yeah, essentially. The overview of this thing: it really does feel like it’s a pro-growth budget. We’re giving relief to people where government has historically been squeezing them. And that’s what’s so interesting. 

I mean, you and I both do it because it’s just how we’ve been conditioned. It’s like, “Oh, you know, it’s good news on tax-free savings and we know that not everyone can afford it, but it’s good news”. 

Because everyone is so browbeaten into always thinking about, “How on earth do we help people who have nothing, at the expense of the middle class?” The truth of it is you can only do that for so long – and then it actually starts to have the opposite effect. 

Because you cannot cannot squeeze the middle class into…not working poverty (per se) – obviously people still have way better quality of life than those who are genuinely on the breadline – but you do squeeze them into a point where, they’re not having as many kids, and they’re not spending, and they’re not doing all of this kind of thing which actually grows the economy. 

I think something like Curro becoming essentially a non-profit organisation is a cautionary tale for the middle class in South Africa. Where people have emigrated or are having fewer children, yes, it’s a global phenomenon, but this tax squeeze is part of it. 

And so for me personally, just seeing stuff like this is really encouraging because they are now giving tax relief to the people who are actually working, investing, and then creating jobs for others, which, as a capitalist, as I am, makes me feel like that’s the right thing for the country to be doing. So that we actually get people to see a future here, which I think they’re starting to do, as opposed to a few years ago, when it was looking pretty bleak. 

That’s kind of my summary of the budget. I’d be keen to get your final thoughts, and then I’ll let you go.

Tertius Troost: Yeah, I completely agree. I think South Africa is really poised for growth. It’s ready to turn that corner. I’ve summarised it like this before, and I’ll reiterate it: it’s a budget where relief is where it counts. It supports small businesses, and it’s a pivot to stability.

I think that’s clear-cut. You can’t get a better summary than that.

The Finance Ghost: Absolutely. Tertius, thank you so much for your time again this year. Really appreciate it. We are operating in an exciting place in the world at the moment, in my opinion. 

I’m pretty bullish on South Africa, and it’s nice to see this kind of thing coming through. So well done to those in government who made it happen. I know who you are, and you know who you are. So congratulations to you.

And Tertius, if I don’t get to do another one of these with you this year, I’ll certainly see you for the budget next year, I’m sure. But perhaps later this year, we’ll touch base on what’s going on in the world of tax again.

Tertius Troost: Most definitely. Looking forward to it. Thanks, Ghost.   

The Finance Ghost: Ciao.

From spelunker to spactacle: the Floyd Collins story

A desperate bid to create Kentucky’s next cave attraction spiralled into one of America’s first media frenzies. Floyd Collins went underground in a bid to attract tourists and ended up as the spectacle they came to see.

Let’s go back in time together, dear reader. 

The year is 1925, and you are a traveller passing through Cave City, Kentucky. The name of this place is not foreign to you – even those who have never visited this area before have heard the stories of the massive network of caves that stretches for kilometres under the surface of this little town. Perhaps some of your friends or relatives have visited this place and paid their coins for the privilege of being chaperoned into the caves by one of the many local guides. 

Even though cave tourism is at the height of its popularity in the US, the ratio of tourists to poor farmers trying to make a living is so unbalanced that locals are in constant competition with each other over the right to own and show caves, practically pulling at visitors like vultures squabbling over scraps. On most days, the town is eerily quiet.

This day is different though – today, this sleepy little town is wide awake and bustling with activity. The streets are flooded with out-of-towners. The local hotel is fully booked, and the only restaurant in town has run out of food to serve. Tourists are paying enterprising homeowners premium rates to sleep on their bedroom floors, or in their mattress-lined bathtubs. On the outskirts of town, a gathering that closely resembles a large fair is taking place, with stands erected to sell hamburgers, hot dogs and souvenirs. Moonshiners lurk around the outskirts, selling suspicious-looking bottles (remember, we’re deep in the Prohibition era here). There is even a juggler present. 

“What is the occasion?” you ask an attendee of the festival, expecting to hear that it is the town mayor’s birthday, or perhaps some religious day of celebration. The answer surprises you: all of these people – about 10,000 in total – are here because a man is stuck in a nearby cave. 

That man is Floyd Collins, and this is what happened to him. 

Back to where it started

William Floyd Collins was born in 1887 on the Collins family farm, about 6 kilometers from Mammoth Cave, the sprawling cave system that gave Cave City both its name and its purpose. Floyd began exploring caves as a child, initially searching for Native American artifacts he could sell to visitors at the Mammoth Cave Hotel. By adulthood, cave exploration had evolved from curiosity into something closer to a long-shot business strategy.

Like most of their neighbours, the Collins family attempted to make a living by farming on the thin and sandy soil, and as a result they were quite poor. This looked like it might change in 1917, when Floyd discovered a cave (which he later named Great Crystal Cave) on their land. The Collins did what any ambitious operators in the Cave Wars era would have done: they immediately set about turning the cave into a tourist attraction. The plan was solid, the name was enticing and the cave was impressive, but unfortunately, geography proved stubborn. Floyd’s Great Crystal Cave was simply too remote, and visitor numbers remained underwhelming. 

While location was definitely the crux of the problem, sly competitors certainly didn’t help. By the 1920s, dozens of rival “show caves” were in operation across the region, all operated by families who were equally poor and desperate. Competition was creative and, at times, spectacularly dishonest. Promoters dressed as police officers would position themselves along the road to intercept visitors, confidently informing them that the caves they sought were unsafe or closed before redirecting them to “better” or “safer” caves (read: their own). In more committed moments of entrepreneurship, rivals burned ticket booths, blocked access roads and vandalised competing sites. Everyone was chasing the same prize – passing tourists with spending money – and the margins for success were thin.

Floyd, who was equal parts explorer and entrepreneur, knew exactly what he needed next – a cave closer to the main entrance to Mammoth Cave, where tourist traffic flowed more naturally. In early 1925, he believed he had his breakthrough. Working largely alone, he discovered and began enlarging a narrow opening that would later be known as Sand Cave. Risking life and limb on a hope, he crawled through tight underground passages, some no higher than 22 centimeters in places, convinced that somewhere just ahead of him lay a larger chamber – and perhaps the changing of his family’s fortunes. 

An opportunity for disaster

For weeks, Floyd worked methodically to make Sand Cave accessible enough for future tourists, clearing rocks by hand and carrying them out of the cave one bucketfull at a time.  Then, on 30 January 1925, after several hours underground, his gas lamp began to fade. Floyd knew what this meant: he needed to exit the cave before it ran out completely, otherwise he would soon be stranded in complete darkness. 

As he hastily tried to get out, he became trapped in a narrow horizontal passage. In an attempt to wriggle out, he managed to knock over his gas lamp, breaking it and dousing himself in darkness. It was a bad situation, but Floyd wasn’t panicking yet – he was an experienced caver, and he knew this particular cave very well. Could he navigate it in the dark? He reckoned he could. He felt with his foot for something that he could step against in order to boost himself out of the passage, and accidentally pressed down on an unstable rock hanging out of the ceiling of the passage. The 12kg rock immediately became detached and pinned his left ankle, simultaneously bringing down torrents of loose gravel that buried his entire body. Only his neck and head remained free. 

Floyd was trapped on his back in complete darkness, 46 meters from the entrance of the cave and 17 meters underground, on the other side of a passage so narrow that few men were brave or limber enough to squeeze through. The cave he hoped to turn into an attraction had apparently decided to keep him.

Call in the cavalry

Neighbours eventually realised Collins was missing. They located him quickly (it was well known that he was working at Sand Cave), but faced an immediate logistical problem: almost no one could physically reach him through the tight passageways. Only his younger brother, Homer, who was smaller and more agile, was able (and willing) to squeeze through in order to assess the situation and to bring food and water. Word of the trapped caver spread quickly. Soon, the media arrived. Then came the crowds.

Newspaper reporter William “Skeets” Miller of The Courier-Journal was the second person to brave the narrow cave passages in order to interview Floyd in person. He began writing vivid updates from the scene, which were published across the state. His reporting, transmitted by telegraph and amplified by the still-novel medium of radio, transformed the rescue attempt into a national fixation. Within days, Sand Cave had become the tourist destination that Floyd had hoped it would. 

A race against time

There was, however, a grim operational downside to all this attention. The sheer number of spectators lighting campfires warmed the winter air enough to melt natural ice inside Sand Cave. Icy water began pooling underground, including inside the passage where Floyd lay trapped. Over the course of 17 long days, rescue teams tried multiple approaches to get him free. One attempt to hoist him out of the passage by harness only injured him further, and engineers eventually concluded that the only viable option was to dig a vertical shaft down toward his position – an enormous undertaking for the time, as it had to be done with nothing but shovels and pickaxes.

They worked against the clock. At every juncture, the cave presented a new challenge. Melting ice resulted in slippery mud underfoot. Stabilising beams began to splinter and crack. Regular cave-ins spooked rescuers and eventually completely cut off the only passage that connected Foyed to the outside world, making it impossible for supplies to be taken to him. On 16 February 1925, after 11 days of digging, miner Ed Brenner finally reached Floyd. He was already dead, having succumbed several days earlier, most likely from exposure. The man who had spent his life searching for commercially viable caves had instead become the centre of one of the largest media spectacles of the interwar years.

And this particular cave system was not finished with him yet.

The afterlife of Floyd Collins

Initially, Floyd’s body remained where he died, and funeral services were held above ground. His brother Homer, deeply unhappy with the arrangement, later organised an effort to retrieve the remains. On 23 April 1925, diggers employed and paid by Homer successfully removed Floyd’s body and buried him in the family cemetery beneath a stalagmite headstone. 

One might reasonably expect the story to end there. It did not. In 1927, with tourism revenues struggling and finances tight, Floyd’s father sold the family farm to dentist Dr. Harry B. Thomas. Included in the deal was a clause that feels, even by Cave Wars standards, unusually grim: Dr. Thomas would own everything on the Collins farm, including the houses, the farming equipment, the Great Crystal Cave… and Floyd’s buried body. Wasting no time at all, Dr. Thomas exhumed Floyd’s remains and had them displayed in a glass-topped coffin inside the reopened Great Crystal Cave Cave. For the price of $10,000, the man who spent his last days wishing to be rescued from a cave was instead returned to one. 

Visitors soon began arriving to view the embalmed remains of the man billed as the “Greatest Cave Explorer Ever Known”. For a brief moment in 1929 it seemed as though Floyd would finally be free, when a duo of grave robbers stole his body and attempted to throw it into the Green River. It landed in a bush instead, where it was found by sniffer dogs and returned to its resting place in the cave. The theft prompted Dr. Thomas to secure the coffin with two thick metal chains and a pair of large padlocks. No further attempts at theft were made. For decades – 32 years in total – Floyd Collins remained chained inside the cave he discovered, a prisoner of the tourism economy he had once hoped to master. 

Finally, at rest

In 1961, the US government purchased Great Crystal Cave with Floyd still inside, and public access was eventually closed. Only in 1989 – an astonishing 64 years after his death – were his remains finally re-interred in a Baptist cemetery. By then, history had vindicated much of his original instinct.

The Great Crystal Cave proved far more valuable than even Floyd’s wildest estimations suggested. The government acquisition price of $285,000 (over $2 million in today’s terms) confirmed what he had long believed: the limestone beneath Kentucky held serious economic promise. Even more striking, modern cave mapping confirmed his long-held hunch that all of the region’s caves were interconnected. Today, the Mammoth cave system stretches across almost 650 kilometers, securing its status as the world’s longest known cave network.

The Sand Cave rescue became one of the first modern media spectacles, thanks to a convergence of real-time reporting, mass curiosity and roadside commerce. It demonstrated, years before most marketers would formally articulate it, that attention itself can become an economic force. Tourism, at its most intense, has always hovered near the boundary between fascination and spectacle. The same public appetite that fills national parks and heritage sites can, under the right conditions, transform misfortune into morbid attraction.

Floyd Collins went underground in 1925 hoping to build the next great show cave. Instead, the cave built the show around him.

The facts presented in this article were referenced from the incredibly detailed research and writings of Lucas Reilly. Reilly spent months interviewing park rangers, reading archived newspapers and even visiting Mammoth Cave himself. You can appreciate his work on Cave City and Floyd Collins here

About the author: Dominique Olivier

Dominique Olivier is the founder of human.writer, where she uses her love of storytelling and ideation to help brands solve problems.

She is a weekly columnist in Ghost Mail and collaborates with The Finance Ghost on Ghost Mail Weekender, a Sunday publication designed to help you be more interesting. She now also writes a regular column for Daily Maverick.

Dominique can be reached on LinkedIn here.

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