Tuesday, December 2, 2025
Home Blog Page 2

Ghost Bites (Araxi | Fortress Real Estate | Octodec | Tiger Brands | Vukile Property Fund)

0

Araxi will try convince investors to use normalised numbers (JSE: AXX)

It won’t be easy – accounting results are restated for a reason

Araxi (previously Capital Appreciation) released a trading statement for the six months to September. They changed some accounting policies and this led to a significant restatement of the prior period and a boost to those profits, which created a more demanding base period for comparison purposes.

Here’s where it gets interesting: HEPS only increased by between 0.9% and 2.0% against the restated base. It was up by between 30.5% and 31.8% vs. the previously reported numbers, but you can’t have your cake and eat it by having accounting policies in one period and not the other.

Despite this, Araxi is trying hard to have that cake. They say that investors should use the previously published numbers as the base period for the best measure of performance. Convincing the market to use growth of over 30% instead of less than 2% will be no easy feat.

When results are released on 2 December, they will release normalised numbers in an attempt to explain where shareholders should look. Things like once-off retrenchment costs are worth considering as a normalisation adjustment, but I would be skeptical of anything related to accounting policies. The rule of thumb is that you should have the same policies in both periods – and that’s exactly why IFRS rules force companies to restate the comparatives for a change in policy.


Fortress Real Estate slightly increases FY26 guidance (JSE: FFB)

The interest rate cut and solid underlying portfolio performance have led to this outcome

Fortress Real Estate released a pre-close update to bring the market up to speed on the performance since the year ended June 2025. In this case, the “pre-close” description refers to the six months ending December 2025.

The logistics portfolio remains the highlight, with a vacancy rate of just 0.3% in South Africa and an improvement in the vacancy rate in the logistics portfolio in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) from 15.1% to 9.9%. Logistics vacancies can be very lumpy, as there are typically only a handful of tenants occupying large spaces. They are making progress on sorting out the remaining vacancies in the CEE portfolio.

The development pipeline is impressive, with the next three years expected to see development in South Africa worth R2.6 billion and in CEE worth R2.4 billion. It’s going to be interesting to see how they fund this pipeline. It’s worth remembering that the fund’s current stake in NEPI Rockcastle (JSE: NRP) is worth a casual R14.8 billion, so there’s no shortage of money running around.

The retail portfolio has a vacancy rate of 0.6% and achieved like-for-like tenant turnover growth of 3.9%, so that’s also looking decent.

In terms of capital recycling, the fund sold assets worth R271.5 million year-to-date at a premium to book value of 4.9%. Selling at a premium to book is really helpful in justifying the valuation to the market. It would also be great if they could get rid of the non-core office properties, with that portfolio experiencing a nasty increase in vacancies from 21.3% to 25.8%. Thankfully, the office portfolio is less than 1.5% of the fund’s total assets.

Thanks to the solid performance and the recent interest rate cut in South Africa, they’ve increased their FY26 forecast for distributable earnings by around 1.2%. In terms of year-on-year growth, this implies a range of 7.3% to 8.8% growth. If there’s one thing property funds just love, it’s a drop in interest rates.


Octodec flags limited distribution per share growth in the coming year (JSE: OCT)

At least FY25 growth was well ahead of inflation

Thank you very much to the eagle-eyed reader who left a comment on Ghost Bites yesterday pointing out that I had missed Octodec. I guess it was bound to happen at some point that I would make a mistake with missing a SENS announcement! My apologies for this, it was certainly not intentional. I’m therefore including it here to make sure Octodec is covered off this week.

For the year ended August, Octodec achieved 7.6% growth in the distribution per share. Inflation-beating growth is exactly what investors in this sector are looking for. It also helps when there’s some growth in net asset value (NAV) per share on top, in this case by 2.4%.

FY26 is going to be harder though. There are some significant vacancies coming in the portfolio, with Octodec looking at opportunities to convert offices to affordable residential offerings. They are also getting tighter on which properties they view as core vs. non-core, so you can expect to see more disposals coming.

These vacancies and the associated timing lag in being able to do something about them has led to disappointing guidance for FY26 of between 0.0% and 4.0% growth in distributable income per share. They do at least expect the payout ratio to be consistent.

The share price didn’t seem to be too fussed by this, with the recent interest rate cut no doubt helping with sentiment in this sector.


Tiger Brands makes investors feel special (JSE: TBS)

There’s nothing quite like a R4 billion special dividend during a turnaround – and that’s just one part of the cash bonanza

Tiger Brands has been an exceptional story to follow. The share price is doing incredibly well and with good reason, as management has made excellent decisions around simplifying the group. The overarching principle is that they are focusing on products where they believe they have a right to win. There are many large companies that could learn from this.

Chasing revenue growth like some kind of vanity metric isn’t sensible. Profits are what count. This is why the market isn’t unhappy with Tiger’s revenue growth of 2.7% in the year ended September, as this has been accompanied by an increase of 35% in group operating income.

The numbers get pretty crazy when we dig into the segmentals. The Milling and Baking business achieved operating profit growth of 27%. As strong as that is, it pales in comparison to the 236% jump achieved in the Grains business! Such is the growth in that segment that Grains is now almost as big as Milling and Baking from a profitability perspective.

Given the significant changes made to the business, there’s quite a gap between HEPS from total operations (up 15%) and HEPS from continuing operations (up 31%). The market will always focus on continuing operations.

Such has been the extent of disposals of non-core operations that Tiger Brands generated R5 billion in the process. Not only did they pay a special dividend in the interim period of R1.8 billion, but they are doing it again for the full year. This additional R4 billion special dividend takes the total for the year to R5.8 billion in special dividends alone! To add to the cash bonanza, the total ordinary dividend was R2.4 billion, boosted by a far less conservative payout ratio. On top of all this, there have been share buybacks of R1.5 billion in this period, as well as R1.5 billion since the end of September.

Cash is raining from the sky at Tiger Brands. Despite all the payments to shareholders, the income statement also boasts net finance income of R65 million vs. net finance costs of R287 million last year. To make it even more impressive, they are achieving this in an environment of price deflation. If this is what they can do with modest sales growth, we can only imagine what might happen if the economy improves!

In case you needed any further reasons to believe in this turnaround, the second half of the year was much stronger than the first half. Operating margin was 11.1% for the full year, but the second half was 14.6% vs. the first half of 5.6%. If they can maintain this exit velocity, then it feels like the cash flows are barely getting warmed up.

And with a goal of achieving revenue growth in line with inflation and operating margins closer to 20%, management seems to think that they have plenty of runway for further growth in profits.


Vukile Property Fund delivers 9% dividend growth (JSE: VKE)

There are strong contributions locally and in Spain / Portugal

The Iberian Peninsula has become quite the hotbed for JSE-listed property funds. Vukile has been playing that game for a long time, while others have only recently started pushing into that region. Aside from being firmly on my travel bucket list, the region seems to do a great job of delivering shareholder returns.

Vukile’s results for the six months to September feature far more than just reliance on offshore earnings. The South African portfolio achieved like-for-like retail net operating income (NOI) growth of 10%, while the properties in Spain and Portugal were good for 8.7% growth in that metric. This allowed the group to increase the dividend per share by a juicy 9%.

The growth on a per-share basis will be interesting to follow in the next period, as Vukile raised R2.65 billion in an equity issuance in October. Whenever property funds issue more shares, you have to watch out for the dilutionary impact of the lag in capital deployment. If they pick up the pace in raising capital, this risk goes up.

The balance sheet is in good shape to support ongoing growth, with a loan-to-value of 41.6% as at 30 September (before the equity raise). The credit rating was recently upgraded for both Vukile and its Spanish subsidiary Castellana.

There are no signs of any per-share growth issues in the guidance. In fact, Vukile has raised guidance for FFO per share and the dividend per share, with both expected to grow by at least 9% in FY26.

This is thanks to not just the like-for-like portfolio, but also the recent acquisitions. This is one of the ways that funds can mitigate any dilution in per-share earnings when they issue capital. If the prior period’s acquisitions are now bearing fruit, then it makes up for the new share capital that hasn’t been deployed yet. It works very well until the music stops and the quality of capital deployment drops. Thankfully, Vukile is one of the best funds on the local market, so the risk of this happening is quite low in my view.


Nibbles:

  • Director dealings:
    • The two brothers who built Blu Label (JSE: BLU) have EACH bought shares worth R57 million. Yes, that’s a casual R114 million in total!
    • The CFO of AngloGold Ashanti (JSE: ANG) sold shares worth over R31 million.
    • The CFO of Lewis (JSE: LEW) sold shares worth R5.3 million. I always have a chuckle when companies include commentary that this is a “rebalancing of the director’s portfolio” – a sale is a sale.
    • A senior executive of ADvTECH (JSE: ADH) sold shares worth almost R2.8 million.
    • Supermarket Income REIT (JSE: SRI) announced that an executive director bought shares worth over R1.1 million.
  • Here’s some happy news for Vodacom (JSE: VOD) and Remgro (JSE: REM): the acquisition of a 30% interest in Maziv has received approval from ICASA, which means that all conditions have been met and the deal can close on 1 December.
  • Trematon (JSE: TMT) has released a trading statement that looks rough at first blush. I will reserve comment until full details come out on 5 December, as I want to understand exactly why the intrinsic net asset value (INAV) per share has dropped by between 51% and 54%. The company has paid large dividends this year based on asset disposals, so the payment of cash to shareholders is one of the reasons why the INAV per share would be down. Distinguishing between that impact and the movement in the underlying assets is key. Although the share price has fallen 48% this year, the total return (i.e. including the dividend paid) is “only” a decrease of 14%.
  • Mantengu (JSE: MTU) has renewed the cautionary announcement for the potential acquisition of Kilken Platinum. There are legal disagreements in the background around the percentage held in Kilken by the entity that Mantengu is looking to acquire. It’s pretty hard to do a deal if you can’t even be sure what percentage you would be buying. The due diligence continues and there’s no certainty yet of a deal agreement being reached.
  • Brikor (JSE: BIK) has very little liquidity in its stock. They are now loss-making, with results for the six months to August reflecting an unfortunate swing from HEPS of 1.1 cents to a headline loss per share of 1.9 cents. Revenue was down 24.4% and things only got worse from there, with the company citing weak demand and lower coal production volumes.
  • OUTsurance (JSE: OUT) continues to encourage shareholders in OUTsurance Holdings to swap their shares for listed shares in OUTsurance Group. Based on the latest transactions, OUTsurance has increased its stake in its key subsidiary from 92.75% to 92.78%.
  • Africa Bitcoin Corporation (JSE: BAC) will begin trading on the OTCQB Venture Market in the US. This isn’t a separate listing, but rather a way to trade via US market makers.

Ghost Bites (Attacq | Mantengu | Nedbank | Pepkor | Sea Harvest | Stefanutti Stocks | Zeda)

2

Attacq is on track to meet growth guidance (JSE: ATT)

The office properties are still a headache though

Attacq has released a pre-close update dealing with the six months to December 2025. Their full year goal for distributable income per share is growth of 7% to 10% and they believe that they are on track for this.

Encouragingly, the overall occupancy rate has increased from 91.6% to 92.6%. The total reversion is negative 1.8%, with the collaboration hubs (their fancy word for office properties) dragging things lower with negative reversions of 8.6%. The retail properties had positive reversions of 1.3%.

There’s a very interesting slide from the update showing the gap between turnover growth and foot count growth. Although most of this gap is of course explained by inflation and changes in average basket size, there’s no doubt in my mind that an element of online shopping adoption is contributing to the gap:

To keep people coming to the properties (and especially the Waterfall district), there’s an extensive development pipeline. It’s actually quite amazing to just take a step back and consider the sheer extent of development that has taken place around the Mall of Africa.

Looking at the balance sheet, the weighted average cost of debt has improved by around 30 basis points since June 2025. The credit rating is in good shape. The company is considering a further issuance under the DMTN programme, which is currently only 11% of the total debt on the balance sheet:

Things look solid overall, with the main caveat being around the ongoing pressure on rental renewal rates in the office sector.


Mantengu flags significant losses (JSE: MTU)

Flooding and winter Eskom tariffs are a reminder of how hard this sector is

I genuinely cringe when Mantengu releases a SENS announcement, mainly because I’m worried about the pending headspace disaster on X from dealing with the CEO and his extremely misinformed opinions on my business. But my brand promise to you as a Ghost Mail reader is to write about every single company on the JSE, regardless of how they behave in response. It would be very unfair for me to write in an unbiased way about negative news from companies that behave like professionals, while giving a free pass to others who behave poorly.

So, here goes:

Mantengu released a trading statement dealing with the six months to August 2025. They have swung from HEPS of 2 cents to a headline loss per share of 28 cents. The share price fell nearly 14% on this news, now trading at R0.50. If you annualise the loss (which you have to be very careful doing, as there are specific events affecting the numbers), then the P/E of the company is worse than -1.

Junior mining results can be really volatile though, so they might swing back to profits in the second half, hence my caution about annualising numbers in this space. Still, it’s clear as day that all is not well in the financial health of this company. When detailed results come out later this week, the balance sheet will need a careful review.

Mantengu’s chrome production was impacted by flooding this year, an issue that has plagued many mining houses around the world. Remember how bad the flooding was for Sibanye-Stillwater (JSE: SSW) in their ironically-named Stillwater business in the US? Unfortunately, mining companies are subject to the whims of Mother Nature herself. This is why mining is seen as risky, as companies typically have only a handful of operating facilities that carry concentration risk in terms of natural forces.

From September 2024 to February 2025, average monthly chrome production was 13,520 tonnes per month. From March 2025 to August 2025, they only exceeded that number in two months. The average for this period is 11,505 tonnes per month, or a drop of 15% vs. the preceding six months. In addition to the flooding problems from March to May, they also had drilling and blasting issues in August that have since been sorted out.

We now arrive at the silicon carbide segment, the Sublime Technologies business that Mantengu acquired for almost nothing. This is the acquisition that created the very large “bargain purchase gain” in the financials – the converse of “goodwill” under accounting rules.

Production of silicon carbide looked fine in March and April before dropping sharply in May. The company took the decision to shut production in June and perform maintenance over the winter period when Eskom tariffs are much higher. We’ve seen similar strategies in the winter months at Merafe (JSE: MRF), where they are having a really hard time in the ferrochrome sector.

This is objectively an ugly set of numbers that would typically send management teams on a PR offensive to convince the market that there’s more value here than one might think based on these losses. Let’s see what the management outlook statements say when full results are released.


Nedbank to pay R600 million to Transnet (JSE: NED)

This is going to sting for shareholders

Nedbank and Transnet have been fighting over interest rate swap transactions that go back to 2015 / 2016 as part of the broader state capture debacles. The bank maintains its innocence, but that doesn’t mean that drawn out proceedings are worth going through. Aside from them being very expensive, it also impacts the opportunity to do more work with Transnet.

Without admission of any liability, Nedbank has agreed to pay R600 million to Transnet to make this problem go away. The initial lawsuit was for around R2.8 billion, a truly bonkers number that would’ve implied that it was surely the most profitable (and corrupt) deal in the bank’s history. R600 million is also a fat number, but at least it brings closure. The broader problem here is that the legal process incentivises the use of gigantic claims in the hope of using anchoring bias to achieve a lucrative settlement.

Nedbank also noted that financial performance is in line with expectations for the 10 months to October, provided you exclude this settlement of course. To give more context to this number, headline earnings for the six months to June was R8.4 billion.


Pepkor has released a great set of numbers (JSE: PPH)

And they are starting a bank to take advantage of their distribution power

Pepkor released results for the year ended September. They’ve showed the market what is possible in the apparel space when you are resonating with customers and offering a mix of value-added services that get the job done.

Revenue increased by 12%, gross profit margin was up 150 basis points to 39.8% and operating profit jumped by 13.2%. That’s a fantastic set of numbers, with the cherry on top being that HEPS from continuing operations was up by 14.8% as reported, or 23.4% on a normalised basis.

As for the dividend though, the increase was only 9.2%. HEPS from total operations was only up by 8.4%, so that might give us a clue.

If we dig into the underlying business, we find group merchandise sales growth of 8.8% for the year, along with like-for-like sales of 6.5%. Southern Africa (which excludes PEP Africa and Avenida) grew like-for-like sales by 7.4%. If you exclude Southern Africa (i.e. only PEP Africa and Avenida), like-for-like sales were up 8.9% in constant currency, but down 3.1% in rand terms because our currency has had a strong year.

Avenida has had a fairly iffy start in the Pepkor stable, although there’s recently been some improvement. Like-for-like sales increased by 1.8% for the period, with a solid acceleration in the fourth quarter of 8.8%.

Within the retail segments, PEP was the leader with like-for-like sales of 9.3% and total sales growth of 10.8% thanks to a growing footprint. Ackermans grew like-for-like sales by 7.1%, a similar performance to total sales growth of 7.2%. The Speciality division was good for like-for-like growth of 3.0% and overall sales of 8.3%.

The overlay of the fintech segment is really important, with revenue up by 31.1%. Gross profit margin increased by 840 basis points to 56.4%. Operating profit jumped by 52.3% in this exciting growth engine to R2.2 billion.

Although there is much focus on the credit interoperability strategy at Pepkor, credit sales are only 16% of total sales. The rest is in cool, hard cash. Still, that’s enough of an opportunity here for credit sales to be the underpin of the fintech segment, with the Flash business as another really important contributor. Insurance is also a winner.

Here’s a stat that is always amazing to read: Pepkor sells 8 out of 10 new prepaid cellphones in South Africa. Mindboggling stuff.

The group has significant expansion plans, with acquisitions across home and adultwear categories. Here’s a particularly interesting nugget: the company is looking to establish a banking presence in South Africa, taking advantage of the massive distribution footprint across the country. The Prudential Authority gave them a Section 13(1) approval in November, so this banking push is very real.

The group is in really strong shape. It’s worth remembering that the start of the financial year was boosted by two-pot withdrawals, with that distortion now creating a very demanding base for the new financial year. For the 7 weeks to 15 November, group sales were up 5.3%. The prior period saw 14.6% growth in those weeks, so the two-year stack is still excellent.


Sea Harvest’s focus on hake has paid off (JSE: SHG)

HEPS has more than tripled!

Here’s a fascinating trading statement, particularly after we saw such tough numbers from sector peer Oceana (JSE: OCE) the other day. Within those Oceana numbers, the hake business was the highlight and global fish oil prices dragged them down. Over at Sea Harvest, the hake business is the focus area and hence they’ve had a great time in the year ending December 2025.

Yes, we are still over a month away from the end of this period, yet the company feels confident enough to issue a trading statement highlighting a huge move in HEPS of at least 200%. This means that HEPS will more than triple!

Better catch rates and pricing in the hake business were accompanied by efficiency gains. The positive outcome of this combination is clear to see. And as a reminder, a trading statement going out this early means that the guidance is probably conservative. In other words, profits may be even better than this guidance would suggest.


Much higher profits at Stefanutti Stocks, but still work to do on the balance sheet (JSE: SSK)

The company also recently announced a settlement with Eskom

Stefanutti Stocks has been on a wild ride. Get this: the share price is up 1,420% over 5 years! That is absolutely insane. I should also point out that despite these gains, the share price is only back to where it was in 2017. It also happens to be more than 80% down vs. the pre-FIFA World Cup construction bubble.

Some stocks are like old dogs that snore gently in the corner of the kitchen and wag their tails when the treat cupboard gets opened. Others are bucking broncos that attract only the brave.

The recent share price run at the company has been the result of restructuring activities designed to save the balance sheet. Current liabilities exceed current assets by R1.2 billion, so the company is on a knife’s edge. The share price performance is a function of progress made in areas like the Kusile Power Project claim against Eskom, leading to a settlement of R580 million that must be paid to Stefanutti Stocks by 12 December. This will take some of the heat off, but not all of it.

There are also disposals in process for the businesses in Mozambique and Mauritius. This will be a further boost to the balance sheet, but won’t fully solve the problem.

The performance from continuing operations is thus relevant, with revenue from continuing operations up 1% and operating profit up 22%. Profit from continuing operations has jumped by 53%. Combined with a much stronger order book, this has allowed the company to keep the banks at bay while the important corporate actions are concluded.


Has the market finally woken up on Zeda? (JSE: ZZD)

Or will this be a short-lived uplift?

Mobility company Zeda released results for the year ended September 2025. The share price closed 11% higher on the day, taking the year-to-date increase to 6% after a long and frustrating sideways period. Buying so-called “cheap” shares on the JSE is an exercise in patience. I don’t usually dabble in value stocks on the JSE and I made an exception for Zeda, but it really is taking forever to rerate higher.

Although HEPS may be up by 15.7%, the truth of it is that the underlying story isn’t very exciting. Revenue increased by only 1.7%. EBITDA was flat, while operating profit increased by 10.8%. I would far rather see the growth in earnings before depreciation, not after it!

The depreciation is an even bigger sticking point than you might think. Because of pressure on used car prices in the market, Zeda decided to keep vehicles in their fleet for longer. In other words, they extended the useful lives of rental vehicles. This hurt revenue from sales of vehicles, but it boosted margins. It’s just clearly not sustainable, as people renting cars are expecting to climb into vehicles in excellent condition, not something that looks ready to become an UberX.

The good news is that there’s a dividend that pays you to wait around. This is a core part of my investment thesis in this company. The dividend for the year of 181 cents is a yield of 15.3% on my in-price of R11.84. That makes me feel a lot better about the overall position! Even on the current price of R13.75, that’s a trailing yield of 13%.

Return on Equity (ROE) may have dipped from 23.1% to 21.9%, but that’s still a solid number that is well in excess of their cost of capital. There’s no shortage of debt to help boost ROE, with a net debt to EBITDA ratio of 1.5x (up from 1.4x in the prior period).

I suspect that it won’t be long until the rental fleet has a large contingent of Chinese cars. I also worry that there might be some painful financial results during that transition. For this reason, I’m not sure that the market will rerate the multiples when much of the current growth came from changes to depreciation, but at least there’s a fat dividend for those with patience.


Nibbles:

  • Director dealings:
    • A trust related to an independent non-executive director of Blu Label (JSE: BLU) bought shares worth nearly R2 million.
    • The CEO of Sirius Real Estate (JSE: SRE) bought shares worth R1.08 million.
    • A director of a major subsidiary of Sasol (JSE: SOL) sold shares worth R215k.
    • A director of Visual International (JSE: VIS) sold shares worth R40k.
  • Copper 360 (JSE: CPR) has financial woes that have been well documented, so it’s not a huge surprise that losses have gotten much worse. As we so often see in the risky junior mining space, the company just hasn’t lived up to expectations. A reset is in process at the company, with a significant restructuring of the balance sheet and the raising of fresh equity capital. The market is very unforgiving, so this feels like the last roll of the dice for them in terms of public markets. They simply have to make it work.
  • The final steps in the MTN Zakhele Futhi (JSE: MTNZF) dance are upon us. A scheme of arrangement will be used to execute the final payment to shareholders of 15 cents per share. It’s important to remember that this comes after a return of capital of R20.00 and a dividend of R4.20 per share. This is why the net asset value per share is now so low. It was a great outcome in the end for shareholders, particularly compared to where it was trading last year.
  • RH Bophelo (JSE: RHB) has very little liquidity in its stock, so the results for the six months to August just get a passing mention down here. Net asset value per share grew by 4%, an important metric for what is essentially an investment holding company. There was unfortunately an 18% decrease in investment income due to delayed dividend income. That impact is much more severe when you consider the components of investment income. Of the R44 million in this period, a whopping R41 million was thanks to fair value moves and only R3.3 million was in the form of interest income. There was no dividend income. In the prior period, interest income was R4.4 million and dividend income was R9.4 million. Thankfully, cash on the balance sheet has only decreased from R32.3 million to R29.5 million.
  • Ascendis Health (JSE: ASC) reminded the market that the offer closing date is Friday, 28 November. There is a maximum acceptances condition to the offer, so it’s not clear yet whether it will go through. For this reason, the cautionary announcement has been renewed.
  • Ethos Capital Partners (JSE: EPE) released the final details for their planned unbundling of the Brait Exchangeable Bonds (JSE: BIHLEB). The total value of the bonds being unbundled is R175.5 million. The unbundling ratio is 0.00086 Brait bonds for each A ordinary share in Ethos Capital.

Ghost Stories #84: Assurance and trust – the route to wider blockchain adoption

Listen to the show using this podcast player:

A decade ago, barely anyone you knew would even have heard of Bitcoin and cryptocurrency, let alone blockchain technology. But today, the tokenisation of digital assets is so important that regulators around the world are paying increasing attention to it. 

Dr Wiehann Olivier is passionate about the financial guardrails that need to be in place for digital asset adoption to increase. Having completed his PhD in topics related to the assurance needed in a blockchain context, Wiehann has become a subject matter expert within the global Forvis Mazars ecosystem.

On this podcast, he joined me to walk us through the evolution of cryptocurrency from the initial Bitcoin years through to the modern environment of stablecoins and widespread adoption by leading institutions.

You can connect with Wiehann on LinkedIn here.

Full Transcript:

The Finance Ghost: Welcome to this episode of the Ghost Stories podcast. I’m looking forward to having some fun here and certainly to learning some stuff as well, because I am by no means a crypto and blockchain expert. But the good news is that we have a crypto and blockchain expert on this podcast – and I really do mean expert, because Wiehann Olivier is the Partner and Head of Fintech, Digital Assets and Private Equity at Forvis Mazars. 

That very long and exciting title these days can be summarized as ‘Dr’. So, well done, Dr Wiehann Olivier! You have gotten your doctorate and you did it on auditing cryptocurrency, which I think is really interesting. What an unusual Venn diagram. It sometimes feels like a lot of the people involved in the crypto space also want to be as far away from an audit as humanly possible, and a big part of your passion is in bringing those worlds together – which, of course, is a big part of blockchain adoption. So, welcome to the show! 

Thank you, as ever, for doing this with me. And I’ve got to say, I’m really looking forward to digging in here.

Wiehann Olivier: Thanks so much for having me. It’s really exciting. I think we’ve spoken in the past about fintech and private equity, so venturing into blockchain-based digital assets is transitioning to the next conversation, I’m assuming.

The Finance Ghost: Yeah, the nice thing is your role really does what it says on the tin. We can basically go step by step and just tick off each section. You’re going to have to add some stuff so we can do some more of these next year. Let’s focus on the digital-asset side, which is obviously crypto, blockchain, the whole story. 

Before we dig into all of that, I’m keen to understand more about this research you did recently (which is really interesting), how you actually ended up in this space, and then how that ties into the offering at Forvis Mazars. Because as I said, and I really meant it, auditing and crypto almost feels like an oxymoron. But, of course it can’t be if people are going to trust this stuff. So, give us the lay of the land in terms of the academic journey and what you are up to at Forvis Mazars in this space.

Wiehann Olivier: Sure. I started my journey with Forvis Mazars in 2010. Back then it was known as Mazars Moores Rowland (dropped the name to Mazars). But I started articles there, back at Mazars in Cape Town. Subsequent to that, I did my articles, resigned for six months, worked a little bit in private equity and real estate. Six months later, I decided to go back to audit (which was quite surprising because a lot of people try to get out of audit as quickly as possible), building basically my portfolio. Eventually made Partner in 2018. 

But just prior to that, I think back in 2017, I started to look at blockchain-based digital assets because it was still quite niche at that point, but did have a little bit of interest in the asset class itself. 

Once you become partner, everything gets pushed across your desk. So, all the cold calls, all the cold emails. And then, effectively one of the cryptoasset service providers (CASPs) in South Africa actually came across my desk. I went to see them, and I came back and said to my Head of Audit and my Managing Partner at that point, “There is real opportunity for us to get involved in the digital asset sector because my anticipation is that it is going to get really, really big, and I can see this integrating and see more, if I can call it, ‘speculative exposure’ to the asset class.” And I wasn’t far off, of course. Unfortunately, I had not put all of my life savings and retirement savings into cryptocurrency, otherwise we probably would not be having this podcast now!

From there, I started to build the practice. Started to onboard CASP clients, keeping an eye on the industry. And as that started to progress on a global basis as well, got a little bit of exposure. So, we first gained a lot of exposure in South Africa, and then on a global basis when the other firms – because Forvis Mazars of course is in more than 100 countries and jurisdictions and then, when these opportunities did pop up – they started reaching out.

So, effectively, I became like the subject matter expert on digital assets and spent a hell of a lot of time on the internet – researching, looking at the technology, and playing around with it – to truly understand where we can get that crossroad into the audit profession and digital assets. 

Now, subsequent to that, I also did a Masters in Blockchain and Digital Currencies through the University of Nicosia. And then, of course, my role developed into the Head of Digital Assets at that point because we had a nice, chunky-sized portfolio.

Then at the end of 2022, FTX happened and the whole cryptocurrency market came crashing down. Everyone was scared, didn’t want to be in the sector, didn’t want to gain exposure to it. And we basically stayed put at that stage, so we were still servicing some of the clients that we had built up during that period. And then from that perspective, we also pivoted into fintech. So, that is where the role came from, from fintech and digital assets.

And then, while we waited for the market to mature, I also thought to myself, “Well, I’ve come this far. I’ve run the four-kilometre race. I might as well just run the five kilometres and do a PhD.” So, I spoke to a couple of universities. Already had an idea of exactly what I wanted to do, because I’m no academic whatsoever. I wanted to create a practical solution auditors can actually use on a day-to-day basis when engaging with the asset class. Effectively then completed my PhD on the subject matter of designing a framework whereby financial auditors can gain assurance over blockchain-based digital assets.

And then leading up to the point where we effectively sit now. I’ve got a new role as well, which is the Global Digital Asset Co-Leader for Forvis Mazars. So, basically overseeing the global strategy of the practice on a global front, overseeing all the countries and jurisdictions around the world. So, that is it basically, in a nutshell, in terms of how we got to where we are now.

In terms of the work that we do, we do a lot of assurance work for CASPs, both locally and abroad. We’ve serviced, I think, three of the top ten cryptocurrency exchanges on a global basis. We still service various CASPs in South Africa, both from a statutory and a regulatory perspective. Abroad, we service private and publicly listed entities that have exposure to the asset class. And of course, as I mentioned, I was fortunate enough to be utilised as a subject matter expert on most of these engagements, including the US, UK, Singapore, UAE, Switzerland, Germany, Sweden, Hong Kong. All of the countries around the world.

And then what I’ve also been involved with, more from an advisory perspective, is support to multi-jurisdictional banks in the EU – specifically in relation to blockchain architecture. We’ve worked with regulators on due diligences on CASPs. We are also currently working with regulated stablecoin issuers in Europe, performing internal audits. We’ve done a helluva lot of tax work, VDPs, tax structures, general advice, and to a certain extent, more so (and we will touch on it today as well) custody aspects and gap analysis around custody. We’ll talk about the various different aspects of custody.

Then, more recently, we also got appointed as the auditors for Africa Bitcoin Corporation (previously Altvest Capital). So, involved in that space. And then, quite interestingly enough, one of the areas that is more interesting to me is the legal aspect of it. I’ve been fortunate enough to be involved in multiple court cases as a subject matter expert on exchange control regulations, Ponzi schemes, and fraud investigations.

But I think I was fortunate in the sense that the nature of Forvis Mazars and where we evolved from (call it a smaller, all the way to a challenger-tier firm now) is you get exposure to a variety of sectors. And of course, exposure to digital assets and a variety of sectors actually gels well to position us in a very unique situation that we’re able to service a variety of clients in various sectors, when they’ve got exposure to blockchain-based digital assets, and provide very unique and bespoke types of services that they might need.

The Finance Ghost: It’s a pretty interesting career path, isn’t it? I think there’s a lesson in there around, number one, you just cannot predict what you will be doing in five years from now. I don’t think anyone can. And number two, it’s the combination of skills. I talk about this a lot. The Finance Ghost exists today because of a Tim Ferriss interview of Scott Adams who did the Dilbert cartoon. I read about it in I think it was Tools of Titans

Basically, the principle was: you don’t have to be the best at one thing, you’ve got to figure out what you are the best at across a combination of skills. And in your case, it’s audit and crypto, which is unique. And you’ve managed to turn that into something so interesting. I think it’s fantastic. And to be able to provide that service to the entire global network of Forvis Mazars – there’s clearly a lot of expertise here. So, to listeners in South Africa (or anywhere really), if you are looking for some proper support here – from a financial perspective, assurance perspective, consulting perspective – Wiehann is a good man to talk to.

And by the way, Wiehann, before we get into some more of these topics. I did laugh at you saying you would run the four kilometres and you were like, “Oh, I’ll just do the five kilometres and make it a PhD.” A PhD is not one incremental kilometre. Unless it’s into the South-Easter with a Cape cobra maybe hissing at you on a beach somewhere, that’s maybe a one-kilometre PhD! Well done, nonetheless. I think it’s very cool.

Now, let’s dig into some of the really interesting stuff that I want to learn from you today. So, I think when people talk about blockchain, inevitably their minds still go to Bitcoin. Bitcoin is just synonymous with blockchain, and the other way around. It’s just the way it’s always been. 

Is that right? First question. And do you think there has been enough development in blockchain thus far, not necessarily what is still to come but certainly up until now, that this world really has gone well beyond Bitcoin? Are people starting to distinguish between these two topics?

Wiehann Olivier: I think that’s a very valid question. To your point, it all started with Bitcoin. I mean, we all know Bitcoin’s white paper was released back in 2008 by an individual or group of individuals that we only know as Satoshi Nakamoto. And effectively what it said was it was designed to facilitate peer-to-peer payments over the internet, without the need to trust the individual that you are transacting with, and of course, without the need for an intermediary.

Now, it’s not necessarily any new technology that was created. It was existing technologies that were grouped together – like cryptography, like digital signatures, like consensus mechanisms – to effectively build what we know today as Bitcoin.

Now, I think what’s important to note is that, even though it was designed as a peer-to-peer form of payment (so it was designed for people to actually utilise on a day-to-day basis when executing transactions at a store or paying an individual), it also transitioned into a speculative asset class that we know today. It still upholds that peer-to-peer element of it, but there is also a speculative side of that in general, in terms of Bitcoin and most other blockchain-based digital assets – and we’ll get to the ‘most other’ in a while as well.

But, I think more importantly, it was designed to be money. But to be money, there need to be three pillars involved. It needs to be a medium of exchange, it needs to be a store of value, and it needs to be a unit of account. Now, store of value – it’s proven itself over the last couple of years. You’ve seen the price of Bitcoin increase dramatically. Medium of exchange – definitely, because you can go down to Pick n Pay and you can actually pay for your groceries, and most goods and services in South Africa as well, in Bitcoin. But, unit of account is effectively where that falls short, and we can chat a little bit about stablecoins and how that element of the three pillars of money was effectively solved.

Now, initially, when people wanted to gain exposure to the asset class, they went to coffee shops and they traded Bitcoin with one another over the internet, and they would pay someone else in cash. Of course, that evolved into online peer-to-peer places, and that evolved into cryptocurrency exchanges or ‘hybrid custodians’, as we refer to them. And then effectively that led to what we know today, where there is a fully regulated environment where you can actually gain exposure to the asset class through regulated vehicles such as spot ETFs, for example.

And I think all of this moves in terms of what we know today as the Fourth Industrial Revolution and Web3. Now, Web1 was of course where you can read information on the internet. Web2 was where you can read and write information on the internet. And Web3 is effectively where we are now, where you can read, write, and own information on the internet. And I think all of that plays to what is known as the digital economy. So, everything is being digitised – from artwork to identity, and now even currency. So, all of this plays into what is known as blockchain-based digital assets.

And I mean, it’s interesting. There are graphs available. If you take the adoption of the internet from the 1990s all the way to 2010 and you look at the trajectory of adoption of the internet by users, and you take those same principles and apply that to blockchain-based digital assets such as cryptocurrency and you take it from 2010 up until today. You can see that the trajectory of users utilising this technology compared to the internet – it’s got exactly the same trajectory. Think about where we are today and every single facet of our lives that we use the internet for, and think about that in the context of digital assets.

So, ten years from now, digital assets will be integrated so immensely into every facet of business that we do and perform on a day-to-day basis, and we won’t even realise that it’s there. That is why I think it’s so important for individuals out there, be it in every walk of life or every sector, to gain an understanding of the asset class. To be able to utilise it, but also to understand the benefit, because there are some real benefits in relation to blockchain-based digital assets.

The Finance Ghost: Yeah, I like that you took us all the way back there to Satoshi Nakamoto and this white paper. A little bit like Banksy in the art world, you know. No one knows who Banksy is, in theory at least. He’s done a pretty good job of keeping that a secret. The Finance Ghost is a poor relation of these things, because mine is really not that much of a secret at all. Banksy and Satoshi, those are the OGs in terms of keeping it under wraps. I wouldn’t mind having either of their bank balances. Well, not sure about Banksy, maybe the name is not a good clue there. But Satoshi certainly has a few bitcoins to his or her or their name. Or honestly, who knows? I suppose we may never know.

But what we do know is that adoption curve you’ve talked about, that is pretty interesting. And again, we can learn so much from history. It’s so important to actually look at what has happened before and then to say, “Well, what can we apply to what’s happening today from what we can observe in history, and what can we learn from that?” 

And, speaking of learnings, I think this whole proliferation of stablecoins and trying to solve that pillar of money point that you talked about, that just speaks directly to some of the innovation in the space. Some of the development and all of that kind of thing. And obviously this leads into some of the more commercial use cases.

So, I’m going to hand it back to you to take us through maybe just some of those points around, okay, you know, we started with the sort of blockchain world and some IT geeks busy sending this stuff around the world and trying to understand how it works (and it’s amazing how technology starts like that). And then suddenly it gets to the point where your Uber driver starts pitching you Bitcoin, as was the case a few years ago, which is usually when you know it’s probably time to sell and climb back in later on. There is a lot of technology development that happens underneath all of this. So, you touched on stablecoins. Let’s talk a little bit about that, and just some of the other use cases and how things have evolved.

Wiehann Olivier: I think it’s an extremely interesting topic and I think it’s a very valid question that you’re asking. And I love the fact that it’s actually a sentence that was written in my PhD, where I specifically said that the blockchain-based digital assets have evolved, beyond a mere niche type of technology that is being utilised by internet geeks, to a multi-trillion-US-dollar asset class as well. Currently, I know that we’ve seen a significant drop in the price, but I think it’s still under the top ten asset classes globally as well. Gold of course sitting, I think, over $20 trillion. But I think cryptocurrency, if I’m not wrong, is sitting just south of about $3 trillion.

But, in terms of the history. So, we know where blockchain technology effectively came from back in 2008 with the first transaction being executed in 2009. But that was the initial development and where we saw blockchain technology actually being utilised and seen as a real technology that might have utility in the long run. Fast-forward a couple of years of course from 2008, you see the likes of blockchains coming up, such as the Ethereum blockchain, for example. What was interesting as well is that the Ethereum blockchain was a blockchain in the normal sense, but it had a certain functionality that Bitcoin didn’t necessarily have. It had what we know as smart contract functionalities as well.

So, if you’re talking about Bitcoin, capital B, you’re talking about the blockchain itself. If you’re talking about bitcoin, lower-case b, then you’re talking about the native currency. That’s what we trade and hold as a store of value. For Ethereum, that is the Ethereum blockchain, and of course the native token of the Ethereum blockchain is Ether. That is the cryptocurrency that we sometimes call Ethereum as well, that we effectively trade on the Ethereum blockchain.

Now, with smart contract functionality, the Ethereum blockchain allowed for something spectacular. It allowed for individuals and developers to actually create a non-native token on that blockchain. So, of course, Ethereum blockchain has the native token of Ether, but now you are allowed to create a token that is listed on the Ethereum blockchain. You set the rules and the parameters, but it’s not linked to the blockchain per se. So, now we create a world where we can create all of these alternative coins that we see out there today, but also with that element of course came non-fungible tokens (NFTs). So, NFTs are based on the ERC-721 standard, and of course these non-native currencies that we see on the Ethereum blockchain are what we refer to as ERC-20.

But first of all, let’s chat about NFTs. I’ve never been the biggest fan of NFTs. You saw pictures of apes being sold…

The Finance Ghost: That was the worst for me. Just a classic example of things that give technology a bad name. That’s what that was for me.

Wiehann Olivier: Yeah, there’s that meme about a guy, I think, “I bought this for let’s say $1,000, I sold it for $20. For more financial advice, follow me.”

The Finance Ghost: Yeah, exactly. The Bored Ape Yacht Club. That’s the vibe on Twitter/X. Yeah, I remember.

Wiehann Olivier: So, Jack Dorsey’s tweet was sold on auction for millions of dollars, and when it went on secondary auction, it couldn’t even be sold for $1,000 or something like that. That just shows the hype that was created with NFTs. 

But NFTs weren’t all bad. I always make this comparison to Lego. So, I think we have actually spoken about this in a previous podcast, but if you take Lego, for example. Lego is fun and games as a child, it helps your mind develop in a certain way. But you don’t make a living playing with Lego. And to the same extent as well, NFTs were exactly that. It let people realise that there’s some capability of having a digital representation of a real-world asset (or a digital asset) that can be housed on the blockchain and piggyback off of the various intrinsic values that a blockchain effectively offers. 

Now, of course, that’s NFTs in a nutshell. These altcoins are effectively non-native cryptocurrencies listed on a smart contract blockchain such as the Ethereum blockchain. And that is what we see today in terms of these Trump coins and ApeCoins and all of these memecoins in circulation. There is a helluva a lot of market manipulation taking place, because it’s still fairly unregulated. 

As far as possible, I believe that people need to stay away from that as well. You need to look at the asset class for long-term purpose and long-term utility. You need to make sure that you are investing into something that actually has intrinsic value, that has utility, as opposed to just being a meme of a cat climbing a tree or whatever the case may be.

I think that is also important to understand – that you have this world of altcoins as well. And of course, I’m not going in the route of central bank digital currencies (or CBDCs) because effectively all that is, is private permission blockchains. It’s just a database housed by one individual, and they just call it a blockchain to try and sell something that it’s not.

To come back to the two examples – so, with these NFTs, it developed our mind in terms of a way of thinking about how blockchain-based digital assets and the technology can be used in other shapes and other formats. That led us to today where we are, in terms of the tokenisation of real-world assets. And we can chat about that in more detail, but effectively, it’s where you tokenise a real-world asset (such as a share or whatever the case may be) and list it on the blockchain. I mean, BlackRock, the world’s largest asset manager, has a tokenised fund called BUIDL. I think that market cap is currently sitting at about $2.3 billion to $2.8 billion. But that’s effectively what we got from NFTs.

Likewise, with these altcoins, what we saw is the development of something referred to as stablecoins. And this was so fundamental in terms of where we stand today in digital assets because we spoke about those three pillars of money, and the one aspect that general cryptocurrencies fell short of was that unit of account, because you couldn’t price your goods and services in Bitcoin because the price would be all over the show. So, now what they did is they developed stablecoins. So, now it is a non-native ERC token on the Ethereum blockchain that is backed by real-world assets, being the US dollar. So, effectively the likes of Circle and Tether, what they did with their business model, for every dollar they received in their bank account, they issued $1 on the Ethereum blockchain. So, it is always backed by $1, so you do not become de-pegged, and you can actually pay for goods and services with these stablecoins. So, there is also a lot of risk involved with these stablecoin issuers.

But I think the fundamental issue that it solved is that unit of account, because now you’ve got an asset class that can move over the internet and over the world as freely as cryptocurrency. It is backed by the security, the decentralisation aspect of it, but it’s not as volatile. And that’s why it’s being used predominantly today across the world for cross-border payments and remittances to such an extent, if you look at Visa and Mastercard, that the volume of transactions in the 2024 calendar year, as well as the 2025 calendar year – stablecoins have overshot Visa and Mastercard put together. I think if you look at the stats of 2024, the total volume of stablecoin transactions globally compared to that of Visa and Mastercard is 7.8% higher than that of Visa and Mastercard. 

So, there’s a lot of money flowing across borders and between businesses and customers and individuals, with the utilisation of stablecoins. And as I mentioned, there is real benefit to people and the man on the street when they engage with the asset class.

The Finance Ghost: And I would think that the stablecoins world is where so much of the assurance risk comes from, right? Because some of these memecoins have got names that are far too PG for this podcast, so I will not mention them. If you know them, you know them. If you don’t, you’re probably better off. 

But when you get into the stablecoins where you need to trust that there is a dollar sitting behind this thing, or a rand, or whatever the case may be – that is a big assurance topic to make sure that is the case. And of course, people use the argument and say, “Well, fiat currencies are not backed by gold anymore. There isn’t a set amount of gold in a vault somewhere.” But the point is that they aren’t as volatile, so then you can price things in rand, etcetera.

You just have to look at what happens in hyperinflationary situations where countries with rapidly depreciating currencies then switch to, “Oh, we’ll just transact in dollars.” That’s almost desperate for a stablecoin. And you actually have to wonder, well, what could have happened in Zimbabwe, for example, when the Zimbabwean dollar collapsed so severely. And I haven’t followed all the stories that have happened in Zim since then (it’s just one disaster after the next, really), but how would stablecoin crypto have made a difference at that time? 

It’s just really interesting stuff to think about. This is how tech adoption works. And, like you say, it is silly stuff like NFTs and buying pictures of apes and crazy stuff. That in and of itself is daft, but it leads to people understanding more about what the tech can be.

Wiehann Olivier: No, you’re 100% right now. I’ve spoken to a lot of individuals within Africa as well. Cross-border payments, remittances is where stablecoins are key. But also there are individuals actually earning their salary in their local currency, purchasing US-dollar backd stablecoins because it’s so easy. And then they utilise that as a hedge against a devaluation of their local currency. It’s a no brainer. Where you send funds across from South Africa to let’s say Zambia, you would pay 12% in remittance fees. Now you can get that as low as 2%! So there’s real opportunity in terms of using the asset class to put back money into the pockets of especially African individuals.

The Finance Ghost: Frontier markets. I love that example because that is actually such a good real-world use case. There doesn’t need to be this huge issue in the middle that makes it so difficult and so complicated and so costly. It’s like what it costs to buy and sell property, it drives me insane. It’s unnecessary. Blockchain doesn’t solve that by itself because a big chunk of it is tax. But at the end of the day, if we need to keep a record of who things belong to and at what price, that’s where blockchain becomes interesting.

You really have to wonder why the deeds office is not running on the blockchain, whatever the case may be. And maybe it will, maybe it won’t. Who knows where we get to with that? But this is the kind of disruption that can come through.

Wiehann Olivier: Yeah. It’s the talking point across the world that deeds offices actually need to run on blockchain. So, it’s there for everyone to see. They can follow it. It is immutable. It is transparent. But I think that is a key thing that a lot of people misunderstand about blockchain-based digital assets. 

Of course, there was a certain period where a lot of illicit trade was facilitated using cryptocurrencies. In hindsight now, if you’re able to gather all the data (and there are a lot of analytic tools), it’s probably the worst thing that you can use in the world – because every single transaction can be traced. 

And, because most cryptocurrency exchanges also have KYC requirements as well, you can track every single transaction being executed on the blockchain. So, it’s actually easy to pick up instances of money laundering and fraud.

The Finance Ghost: So, I want to get into the regs just now, but one more question before we do. I’ve seen a lot more of this tokenisation of real-world assets and a lot of that stuff that’s going on, tokenisation of financial assets, people debating whether shares should trade like this, and there are platform providers in South Africa doing this kind of stuff. 

What is the problem that crypto is trying to address when we see stuff like tokenisation? Should shares rather trade on a blockchain? Is it a cost thing? Is it a systems thing? Is it a security thing? 

Because critics of crypto will say things like, “It’s a solution desperately looking for a problem.” In other words – if it’s not broken, don’t fix it. That’s kind of the counter-argument. So, where do you think this stuff is actually genuinely moving things forward? Because, I mean, that remittances example is brilliant. It’s spot on. I can totally see that. In other places, it’s not always obvious what the benefit of blockchain would be.

Wiehann Olivier: So, I think, if I can summarise it in its entirety, it is to cut out friction. And I will give you the example. Larry Fink is the CEO of BlackRock. So, when he started looking at blockchain technology or Bitcoin as a whole, he thought it was a Ponzi scheme. Fast-forward a couple of years and they’ve got one of the largest funds running on the Ethereum blockchain. Because he saw the benefit of cancelling out all of those fees in relation to intermediaries, because these transactions can now seamlessly be executed on the Ethereum blockchain.

In addition to that is the speed whereby the transactions can be executed. So, I’ve spoken to a lot of individuals globally and a lot of my peers and fellow colleagues abroad. A lot of the time with traditional finance, they speak about T+3. But with the use of blockchain technology, tokenisation of assets, stablecoins, you can basically be sitting in a situation where you are talking about T+0 – and I’m talking about T+0 seconds, where transactions are effectively executed immediately.

I think in addition to that (and I’m very curious in terms of how this will play out), you have traditional markets running, let’s say, from nine to four, or whatever the case may be. But once you’ve got a situation where traditional stocks and types of assets are tokenised, put on a blockchain that does not close – blockchain runs 24/7, 365 days a year. I had a partner within the United States and he said, “The Bank of Bitcoin is always open.” It’s exactly that. So, now you’ll have these weekend warriors actually trading full-time over the weekend as well, because they are able to get access to the market on traditional stocks as well. 

So, the long and the short of it is cancelling out that friction. It’s the cost involved, and it’s the time involved as well. Security – yes, the asset class does provide some element of security that traditional let’s say ‘databases’ don’t necessarily provide. But with traditional finance as well, they have certain securities and parameters and controls in place to make it secure. So, I’m not saying it is more or less secure putting those assets on a blockchain.

The Finance Ghost: Thank you, that’s super interesting, and I guess this brings us neatly to the regulation point because here’s the funny thing about regulation: it protects people, but it introduces friction. And too much regulation takes away the whole point of this progress. You basically regulate it to death (something Europe loves doing) or you find a happy medium (which I think the Americans tend to get right, although not always). 

I’m not sure where South Africa ranks on that spectrum. I mean, my own experience with some of the regulators and some of the deals that happen out there, I’m worried that we might go too much into regulation land, but I’ll let you comment on that because I’m really not speaking from a place of experience there, more a space of fear.

In terms of the regulatory environment, South Africa has been doing some stuff. So, walk us through what is happening here. And then maybe just give us context – and this is probably the most important thing – where would you rank us, on the sort of global regulatory scale, from under-regulated to over-regulated? Where do you think we’re going to land?

Wiehann Olivier: Yeah, I think you summarised it well and said the regulators have ‘done some stuff’ because it’s exactly what it is. But I think, if we look at regulations around blockchain-based digital assets, countries had three options that they could take. They could take a blanket ban, as we see with the likes of China. They could regulate from the get-go, as we saw with the State of New York (of course, that did not pan out well because most CASPs tried to stay away from the State of New York). And then you could take the wait-and-see approach, and that is to a certain extent what South Africa did, in time, to regulate the asset class.

But let’s take a step back to our old friend Mirror Trading International. The biggest Ponzi scheme in 2021, if I’m not mistaken. In today’s value $3 billion that was effectively stolen, I think. Close to 30,000 bitcoin. But, effectively, what was in place at that point was no regulations. The regulations that were in place were in terms of a Companies Act regulation, and you don’t have any monitoring taking place from the Registrar of Companies making sure that companies actually are audited and they submit their financial statements. 

And I think that’s where you can see the fraud effectively happened. Because Mirror Trading International was incorporated on the 30th of April 2019, and effectively they had ten months until the point that they reached their financial year-end. But at that given point in time they, technically speaking, should have appointed an auditor. Then they carried on for another six months. At that point, they would have been required to issue audited financial statements because they were holding assets in a fiduciary capacity, which would have been the 31st of August. But of course, we had no regulator whatsoever in place at that point looking over CASPs, as we knew it today. And of course, that meant the scheme carried on up until November 2020, where effectively the whole house of cards basically fell in and everything came to light.

And I think what’s important there to note, as well, is the fact that there are a lot of people that say regulations are not the best thing for blockchain-based digital assets, and the asset class was designed to operate outside of the constraints of the traditional financial world. And to that extent, they also believe that tax should not apply, and then it should not be regulated. But if you look at the value of the financial harm being caused to individuals based on that – and that repercussion still is ongoing today with the MTI liquidation case that has not been finalised – that is the thing. Stakeholder protection is what regulations are there for and what it needs to achieve.

Now, in terms of how that is rolled out, and of course more importantly, how that is monitored, is definitely a different discussion that we can unpack as well.

So, the FSCA basically brought out this position paper where they said they are going to classify the asset as a financial asset under the FAIS Act, if I’m not mistaken. So, then I was expecting regulations to kick in fairly soon. But a full 12 months went on and no regulations. Eventually, the FSCA rolled around and said they’re going to issue this licensing regime for CASPs where you need to apply for the licences.

Now, interestingly enough, a lot of CASPs in South Africa had applied for the licenses, I think it was in November 2024, and a lot of them had been issued. Up until today’s date, there were about 248 licences in issue, the last time I checked. So, that’s a lot of licences for CASPs in South Africa. And if you compare that to the likes of the UK – 44 licences issued, Germany – 9, Hong Kong – 11, Singapore – 33. 

So, the big question that we need to ask here is – are we too willing to issue these licenses to CASPs? Or are we setting ourselves up for failure again? Because my biggest concern is not the issuing of the licence. Sure, these CASPs make sure that they tick all of the boxes when the licensing gets issued and when the inspection is taking place. But what happens afterwards? Is there monitoring actually taking place from the regulator side to make sure that these CASPs are still acting above reproach as well? 

So, that’s one of the fundamental concerns I currently have with the industry as well. But, I mean, if you take it from that as well – the monitoring element (and we’ve spoken to this a lot as well), is the FSCA expecting auditors registered by the IRBA to effectively play that role? Because if you have a Category 2 FSP licence that allows you to deal with cryptocurrencies or be a CASP, it requires you, in terms of the law as well, to be audited. 

Now, who are the auditors of these 248 CASPs? Do they have the necessary experience and skills to be issuing audit opinions on these CASPs? And, to my shock and horror, speaking to auditors locally and abroad, some of the procedures that they execute when gaining assurance is far from anything close to what we would be doing in assurance from an auditing standard point of view. And I always say, within the digital asset sector, it’s not what you don’t know that gets you into trouble, it’s what you don’t know you don’t know.

You can’t be issuing audit opinions if you don’t fully understand the industry and the technology. Hence why that was the idea behind the topic of my PhD – to give that framework to the general public, to give back something that can be utilised, so we don’t have another downfall of an FTX or a Mirror Trading International that cause reputational harm, not only to the digital asset sector but also to the auditing profession as well.

Also, going on to regulations as well, we talk about income tax to a certain extent as well. Income tax has been phenomenal. They have only rolled out one definition and that is defining cryptocurrency and saying that the normal rules apply. So, aside from that, we haven’t even seen any authoritative guidance whatsoever from SARS. 

So, to a certain extent, there are a lot of people that still believe that cryptocurrency is not a taxable event, that crypto-to-crypto is not a taxable event, if I receive bitcoin from abroad, it is not a taxable event. And that is why we need this authoritative guidance from law makers and regulators, such as the revenue collection agencies of South Africa.

There is this whole debate about whether cryptocurrency is deemed to be capital and when it is deemed to be income. Now, a lot of people will go to Section 9C of the Income Tax Act, and they’ll say, “Well, I held the bitcoin for three years, therefore it is deemed to be capital in nature,” but there is no fruit-and-tree principle. However, within the tax returns, you can define it as capital or income without any authoritative guidance being provided. And it feels a little bit like a trap that they are setting for you as well, without that guidance being provided.

And then the big elephant in the room that a lot of people are talking about is exchange control regulations. We saw earlier this year, the South African Reserve Bank versus Standard Bank on exchange control regulations, specifically in relation to cryptocurrency. The judge summarised it quite well there in terms of him saying the South African Reserve Bank had failed to regulate cryptocurrencies because the asset class has been around for a number of years. 

And I mean, the figures are there if you run the blockchain analytics. There has been millions and billions of rand externalised from South Africa without proper exchange control approval, and it has been facilitated by way of blockchain-based digital assets. Stoppers could have been put in place. They could have made CASPs custodians of making sure that individuals follow the SDA and FIA rules as well, but that has not happened, and that summarised it quite well.

Of course, that court case is up for appeal. I think that appeal is being heard in January of this year, and then we’ll see where it lands. But I think, more likely than not, there will be a change in exchange control regulations.

But then of course, the other elements of things like listed securities, like ETFs. So, at the beginning of 2024, we saw that in the US there were several bitcoin spot ETFs listed on the NASDAQ. And it was quite interesting to see, within the first eight months of those bitcoin spot ETFs that were listed, $17 billion flowed into those ETFs. In comparison, the Gold ETF launched in 2003 and took about three years to reach that same level. So, you can see there was a dire need for this asset class in a more regulated environment. 

Of course, if we look at it from a South African context as well, the JSE in September of this year rolled out a position on exactly what these bitcoin spot ETFs would look like, if you hold the assets directly within the fund as opposed to having another instrument invested in, or whatever the case may be. So, very interesting to see there, but the one focus that they are looking at is the custody element of it as well. And I think that is important for the listeners to understand. Custody is where your real risk comes in.

So, if you use self-custody, that means you hold your private key to your public key, which means like your PIN to your bank account. With custodians, you are exposed to a custodian. So, now you rely on a custodian to keep your assets safe. But what we saw with the downfall of FTX, there are custodians that use custodians, that use custodians, that use custodians. And now, of course, that creates a ripple effect to the market as one of the custodians fails as well. So, that is where the real risk arises with blockchain-based digital assets. 

And you’ll hear about hacks, and we can check about smart contract flaws and those sorts of things. It’s not the blockchain that is being hacked. It is effectively that custodian, or the mechanism whereby the private key is secured, that fails. And that’s where hackers put their focus when trying to misappropriate funds. 

So, within the JSE, of course, we will see a lot more bitcoin spot ETFs listing. At the conferences, it seems like there is a lot on the table in terms of spot ETFs that they want to list in the near future as well. So, we will see what that looks like.

But I think lastly is the stablecoin element of it as well, and this is quite interesting. Stablecoins have been around for a long time, but the regulation has not necessarily been around for a long time. You summarised it well in terms of Europe and the regulations because they always say, “US innovates, China copies, and Europe regulates.” And it was exactly that.

This innovative example of stablecoins came from the US. Not too long after the GENIUS Act was rolled out, the Hong Kong stablecoin ordinance was rolled out, and Europe still does not know exactly what they’ll do. Still trying to figure out how to regulate the asset class as well. So, it summarised that well.

But I think what was so genius in the GENIUS Act is the way that it was written to create a demand for the US dollar, and also to create demand for Treasury bills as well when issuing these US dollar-backed stablecoins. And I think that is the type of innovation that I would love to see from a South African context as well, which we are not seeing. 

With the budget speech of this year, one of the paragraphs actually included from the tech side of it is that, I’m not sure if it is the Intergovernmental Fintech Working Group, will issue a position on stablecoins in South Africa and recommendations in terms of how it will be regulated, or whatever the case may be. And that is expected in December of this year. So, that’s expected to roll out next month, based on the budget speech as well. So, hopefully, there is something positive coming out of this year for blockchain-based digital assets in South Africa, but we will see where it lands.

But once again, if you look at the GENIUS Act, rolling back to that – it has got very interesting characteristics, besides creating that demand for the US dollar and for the Treasury bills. It also has a mechanism in there that they call stablecoin attestation reports. So, now effectively what they need, and of course what you mentioned earlier in the conversation is, how do you know your assets are actually there? How do you know that a stablecoin issuer that says your stablecoin is backed by $1 or some similar type of asset that actually exists is there? Now the legislation is written in such a way that these stablecoin issuers are required by law to undergo attestation reports on a monthly, (or, referring to the Europe context, on a regular) basis where they need a third-party auditor to come and actually see that the assets exist there, and how that corresponds with the smart contract that actually issues that stablecoin. 

And the most interesting part about this is they are not required to report to the regulator alone on this. They are required to report to the general public on this. So, it should be made available on their website as well. And we saw this with the GENIUS Act, with the Hong Kong Stablecoin Ordinance, and with MiCA as well. So, that is the true principle of what it means to provide stakeholder protection. Of course, you can do something that is good for the country and good for the fiscal, but you also need to be mindful of that stakeholder protection, and I think that is what the GENIUS Act did.

The Finance Ghost: It’s super interesting in this space. I was reminded while you were chatting and you were talking about mirror trading and all of that, I remembered reading in the press a couple of years ago about Usain Bolt losing a whole lot of money. And I thought it was a crypto scam, so I went and Googled it. My base case is that it was a crypto scam because it so often is!

But actually, it looks like that was just money that basically disappeared out of his bank account, which is just astonishing. So it just shows you none of these things are perfect. It’s just banking is a lot older and has had more time to be regulated and is a lot better, but stuff still happens.

And I also went and looked now – I asked Copilot and I asked Google AI and got two different answers. What a massive shock Wiehann, look at that – AI giving me two different answers! But there are roughly somewhere between 35 and 40 banking licences in South Africa. So that’s an interesting thing to compare to the number of CASP licences. So that’s commercial banks, mutual banks, local branches of international banks, etcetera. You would certainly expect there to be far fewer banking licenses than CASP licences. But it is interesting to contrast the two.

I guess if you don’t have enough licenses, then it’s too easy for the black market to just carry on. They’ll just say, “Oh, there aren’t enough providers” and they’ll just do their thing. If you have too many licences, you’re bringing more people into the net. It then becomes harder to justify doing unlicensed stuff, but you’ve got to monitor it, and that’s obviously where the risk is of that falling over.

So from a regulatory perspective, it’s going to be very interesting. I think the next podcast you and I do, we should actually really dig into the custodianship and all of that stuff so people really understand these concepts, because I think we could dedicate an entire podcast to that. But in the interest of time on this one, I’m going to ask you one more question, which is over the next 12 months, more or less, and you’ve hinted at some of the stuff that might be coming, but what are you looking out for? Not just in South Africa, but internationally as well. In the world of crypto and blockchain, what do you think some of the big focus areas are? What are you excited to see? What does it mean for you?

Wiehann Olivier: I think if digital assets taught me one thing, it’s definitely humbled me in a lot of circumstances, especially from an investment perspective, and how the technology can evolve and how it has evolved over the last couple of years. But it also taught me something fundamental that I carry with me on a day to day basis, that 12 months is actually quite a long period and you think a year from now it feels like around the corner, but a helluva lot can happen in 12 months. And specifically so with the digital asset sector and the way the technology moves and the way that individuals innovate to that extent as well.

South Africans have been very innovative even in a global context. I mean, a lot of the virtual asset service providers that I speak to globally as well have some connection to South Africa or are actually South Africans as well. I think that’s the way that our brains are wired, based on our traditional banking system and solving issues and those types of things. But it’s really phenomenal to see.

But in terms of what the expectation is going forward, first of all, regulations, there is going to be a helluva lot more regulations and secondly there need to be a helluva lot more regulations because at the end of the day we need stakeholder protection. Of course the asset class provides the element of efficiency for people to utilise in their day to day lives or from an investment perspective, but they need to be protected as well to a certain extent, and I think that’s what regulations effectively offer.

I think real-world assets are probably going to be the fundamental area going forward. We’re going to see whether we’re going to have a further integration of interoperability between different blockchains because of course we do have the issue of thousands of blockchains out in the world and these blockchains need to start to speak to each other. I’d like to see a decrease of alternative coins or meme tokens or whatever the case may be, regulations around that, so we can get that out of the market and get that cleaned up. But I think stablecoins and real-world assets within the traditional financial services world are going to be key.

We’ve had a lot of discussions globally, especially in Europe, with auditors and fund administrators and fund managers to see what the impact of real-world asset and tokenisation of real-world assets will effectively look like going forward, what would be the regulations around that and how users will effectively obtain the benefit. I want to say 12 months from now, but knowing the way the technology evolves, I’ll probably say zero to six months is going to be the focus and where I see a lot of activity happening as well.

And of course from a South African context, a lot of regulations, we will probably see exchange control regulations being clamped down as well. And I’m hoping the FSCA also cleans up the CASP licensing regime a little bit and God forbid we see any downfalls or similar types of MTI and FTX setups in South Africa. But yeah, that’s basically the expectation from my side.

The Finance Ghost: Wiehann, thank you so much. Always so much to learn from you. I’m going to link through to your profile on the Forvis Mazars website and to your LinkedIn in the show notes for those who want to reach out. 

I think you are certainly coming through as one of the genuine experts in the space in South Africa, so to anyone in the industry who wants to understand more about digital assets and some of the regulations around it, and how this can be audited and a lot of the professional services around it that have been around the banking industry for so long and desperately need to make their way more into crypto, Wiehann is certainly a good guy to speak to. 

Wiehann, thank you so much for your time on this podcast. It’s been really cool. I’ve learned a lot, and I look forward to doing the next one with you.

Wiehann Olivier: Thanks, Ghost, appreciate the time and great being on the podcast again.

UNLOCK THE STOCK: Calgro M3

Unlock the Stock is a platform designed to let retail investors experience life as a sell-side analyst. Corporate management teams give a presentation and then we open the floor to an interactive Q&A session, facilitated by the hosts.

We are grateful to the South African team from Lumi Global, who look after the webinar technology for us, as well as EasyEquities who have partnered with us to take these insights to a wider base of shareholders.

In the 63rd edition of Unlock the Stock, Calgro M3 returned to the platform to talk about the recent numbers and the strategic outlook for the business. As usual, I co-hosted this event with Mark Tobin of Coffee Microcaps and the team from Keyter Rech Investor Solutions.

Watch the recording here:

PODCAST: No Ordinary Wednesday Ep115 | The great rewiring of global healthcare

Listen to the podcast here:

This image has an empty alt attribute; its file name is Investec-banner.jpg

Medicine is moving into a world where software spots patterns before humans sense symptoms, and breakthrough therapies can move markets faster than earnings reports. Longevity is rising, costs are climbing, and global healthcare systems are left to wonder whether innovation will save them or bankrupt them first.

In this episode of No Ordinary Wednesday, Jeremy Maggs speaks with Dr Jimmy Muchechetere from Investec Investment Management UK to unravel the forces rewiring global healthcare, from the boom-and-bust frenzy around weight-loss drugs to AI promising to predict illness long before it strikes.

Please scroll down if you would prefer to read the transcript.

Hosted by seasoned broadcaster, Jeremy Maggs, the No Ordinary Wednesday podcast unpacks the latest economic, business and political news in South Africa, with an all-star cast of investment and wealth managers, economists and financial planners from Investec. Listen in every second Wednesday for an in-depth look at what’s moving markets, shaping the economy, and changing the game for your wallet and your business.

Also on Apple Podcasts, Spotify and YouTube:

Transcript:

Chapters

00:00 Introduction to the age of data and DNA
 01:34 Are we reaching the limits of human longevity?
 02:13 Are weight-loss drugs a bubble or a structural shift?
 04:13 How the White House–pharma deal changes drug pricing 8
 06:58 Who wins and loses in a world with fewer illnesses?
 08:10 Why longevity is becoming a macroeconomic risk
 08:46 How AI is reshaping chronic care and healthcare efficiency
 10:28 Who holds power in an AI-driven pharmaceutical world?
 12:27 How to maintain trust when AI outperforms humans in diagnostics
 13:51 How AI is transforming preventative medicine
 16:27 Will data expertise surpass clinical expertise?
 17:35 Who is accountable when AI influences medical decisions?
 18:57 Why regulation must catch up with rapid AI innovation
 20:47 Will AI-driven healthcare widen inequality?
 22:39 How demographics and geopolitics shape healthcare tailwinds
 23:56 How leaders build conviction in a VUCA healthcare landscape
 25:22 The next frontier in personalised and preventative medicine

[00:00:00] Jeremy: If the 20th century was the age of oil and steel, the 21st may well be the age of data and DNA.

Just as the industrial revolution transformed how we built the world around us, today’s technological revolution is transforming how we understand and rebuild the world within us. We’re not just extending lives, we’re redefining what it means to be healthy, productive and human.

But as we push the boundaries of longevity, we’re also confronting a profound paradox: the same tools that promise to cure disease could also reshape economies, challenge ethical boundaries, and widen the divide between those who can afford to live longer and those who cannot.

I’m Jeremy Maggs, welcome to another edition of No Ordinary Wednesday. In this week’s episode we explore these tensions with Dr. Jimmy Muchechetere, Equity Analyst at Investec Investment Management UK, who covers the global Healthcare and Industrials sectors.

We’ll discuss how rising life expectancy is rewriting global healthcare demand and investment priorities, why the sector has underperformed despite strong structural tailwinds, and how artificial intelligence is transforming every stage of medicine – from drug discovery to diagnosis. We’ll also unpack how the explosive rise of weight-loss drugs is reshaping everything from consumer behaviour to healthcare economics, and what that means for investors.

Dr. Jimmy, a warm welcome back to South Africa and most importantly, to No Ordinary Wednesday.

[00:01:34] Jeremy: Life expectancy in developed markets has climbed above 80. Do you think we are starting to approach the limits of human longevity or are we just getting started? What’s your view?

[00:01:45] Jimmy: Well, that’s a very big question. I think one would hope that we are still progressing, but it does feel like we are closer to the end than we are to the beginning. And by that, I mean we’ve made a lot more progress than I think what is left. And this is really because the improvements that we’ve seen have always had unforeseen consequences, which means that there is usually a limit. I don’t think we are far away from approaching that limit.

[00:02:13] Jeremy: Let’s talk a little bit about the big cultural and financial phenomenon, and that is weight-loss drugs. Maybe let’s get a view from you on whether we are witnessing medicine’s version of a tech bubble or Jimmy, maybe a legitimate structural shift in global healthcare economics. What’s your reading?

[00:02:35] Jimmy: It’s interesting.  I think the answer is both. I think there is something real and tangible that is happening, that is changing the world, that is going to change healthcare as we know it. So, if you look at the biggest killers right now, it’s cardiovascular disease, whether it’s stroke, heart attacks and related diseases, and then it’s cancer, right? Those are the two biggest killers.

I think given the advancements we’re getting in these anti-obesity drugs, those cardiovascular events will fall from top two probably, second tier at best, when you look 10 years back from now. But that’s not to say we haven’t got a bubble. And the bubble isn’t really about the science or about the market or about the structural factors. It is more about the excitement around financing many of these initiatives, in many ways there was a bubble that has popped. So, the GLP 1s were all thenage two years ago when Novo Nordisk was the biggest company in Europe. But now you look at it, Novo Nordisk is down 50%. Is the company really changed?

Yeah, it’s changed a little bit, but is it 50% worse off? Probably not. And if you think about it, what has really changed is the valuation that the market is applying to the shares of Novo Nordisk. I mean, if you look at the revenues, the revenue’s bigger now than it was two years ago. Profits are bigger now than they were two years ago. Margins are bigger now than they were two years ago, and yet the company’s valued at half the price than it was two years ago. So, in many senses, there was a bubble that has popped, but in terms of the fundamental picture, it continues to improve.

00:04:13 Jeremy: So, Jimmy, let me ask you this. Now, the White House deal that we’ve seen with big Pharma on GLP 1s, to what extent do you think that’s going to be a game changer?

00:04:23 Jimmy: I think it is going to be a game changer to a big extent. And let me just explain… So the US market is a complex web when it comes to drug pricing. So, they’ve got what’s called the list price, which is the price that everybody can see, and then there are three or four layers of middlemen who negotiate the prices down so that everyone is paying a different price depending on how well the negotiation went with one or three or your middlemen, and that’s based on volume and price and past deals and what else you’re buying so it’s very, very complex and it’s very, very opaque.

What this deal with the Trump administration does is it brings in a lot of clarity in terms of what the economics of GLP-1 production and manufacturing is, what the companies are getting and what the patients are paying. So that’s very important. So, if a drug cost is a $100 to manufacture, to develop and manufacture, if you add three or four layers, then that could end up being $500, right?

But the pharma companies are only getting $100 so for them to make a deal with the Trump administration, where they’re still getting exactly the same economics as before, except that they’re just cutting the middlemen by making the price more transparent, is brilliant and is very good. Of course, it’s not good for the middlemen, but it’s good for patients and it’s good for the companies.

But then there’s an added benefit which is outside the US. So one of the things that the Trump administration has been very unhappy about is that the US prices, and I’m talking about the list price here, which is the one that everyone sees, has sometimes been twice, three or four times higher than what’s paid in other G10 nations, the UK, France, Germany etc. And they see that as an injustice, which, you know, is a fair point to make, but now that you have a transparent price which is comparable to other G10 nations, then that problem goes away.

But not only that, in the past, pharma companies tended not to be able to negotiate on prices with the European Union, with the NHI in the UK because it’s such a big behemoth now with what’s called MFN (Most Favoured Nation) pricing, they are now able to negotiate and say, look, you know, in the US the US government is paying X amount for the GLP-1 drugs. this is the price you have to pay for GLP-1 drugs. So, for pharma companies it’s actually a big win because there’s now price transparency. Their economics haven’t changed at home in the US but outside the US they’re able to negotiate and get a higher price than they were getting before.

00:06:58  Jeremy: So let me push you a little further on economics as far as this equation is concerned, if a pill or an injection can make us slimmer and live longer, I guess one’s got to ask what happens to industries built around illness? And it would be the full gamut from insurers through to the food companies.

 00:07:16 Jimmy: I think you’re right. I think with many innovations, this one included, there will be disruption, and we are already seeing that disruption, right? So, if you look at the anti-obesity drugs, they did not get healthcare insurance coverage until they had more than one indication.

So just being obese was not enough there to get a second indication. Now, the top two drugs did get that indication, which was obstructive sleep apnoea, and they’re looking at other indications as well, such as Alzheimer’s disease, fatty liver disease, chronic kidney disease, etc. But the economics of the healthcare insurance industry have already changed because of that.

So I think there is no question that there will be some sub-sectors that will be disrupted, there will be winners, there will be losers, but the market is definitely going to evolve because it is undeniable that these drugs have got a very significant impact on human health.

[00:08:10] Jeremy: Now we know that life longevity is often celebrated, but I think it’s fair to say, Jimmy, that it could also become the next major macroeconomic risk. Why do we say this? Well, obviously it’s going to strain pensions. It would impact on productivity and healthcare systems and all simultaneously. Now, I know that you recently gave a presentation that outlined ways in which artificial intelligence is transforming drug development. Which of these is going to have, in your opinion, the most immediate economic impact, particularly through the prism for investors?

[00:08:46] Jimmy: That’s a big topic. What we are seeing is that people are indeed living longer and therefore healthcare costs are rising because as people live longer, the tendency for more things to go wrong rises, and so they demand more of healthcare services. And so, the cost of healthcare, you know, is rising as a proportion of GDP and markedly in absolute terms.

So, we have seen a shift from acute care funding towards chronic care funding, and that is a shift that AI can help with in terms of maximising bed efficiency, for example, in terms of maximising post admission care, in terms of putting together disparate working streams.

So if you are elderly and you’ve got say, three or four things that have gone wrong, you’re being looked after by three or four different specialties – the ability to have those specialists talk to each other and manage a person as one person in a multidisciplinary format is something that has been missing because these specialties often live in silos, but AI is actually bringing those things together.

So, we have got companies for example, that we own in our funds. HCA Healthcare is one such example where they are using AI to advance all these things that I’ve given as examples, and that is not only improving the bottom line for the company itself, but also improving patient care and satisfaction for some of the workers that we see.

But certainly, it is a big topic and there’s a lot of innovation that needs to come, and AI is going to be a big part of that solution.

[00:10:28] Jeremy: Well, let me pick you up on that word, innovation. We know that artificial intelligence is changing the economics of drug discovery, but I guess one could also ask if it could change who holds power in pharmaceuticals more broadly? Would it be scientists, algorithms, or maybe even capital?

[00:10:48] Jimmy: Yeah, I think AI is progressing faster than regulations can keep up, and so that is an area that AI ethicists are really looking to quite closely to build some guardrails around AI.

As things stand now, the value lies with the capital. So, if you finance a project, you own the patterns and the knowledge that comes from that investment. Is that likely to change in the short term? I’m not so sure. I think that remains the case as long as the humans remain in control. I mean, if it’s an autonomous system, then becomes a different question, but right now every development of AI in healthcare has got a human-in-the-loop component to it. And because it continues to have that, the value continues to accrue to the capital providers because they on the intellectual property.

So, I think that’s where the value lies. The other thing as well is the data, which is very valuable, and that’s effectively the blood supply for AI. The data belongs to the patient and continues to belong to the patient. So as the regulations around AI evolve, if they keep that patient intact, i.e. that patient owns their own data, then the value will continue to lie with the patient.

If they decide to monetise it or give it away to an AI algorithm, then maybe that will change, but as far as the starting point is concerned, that’s where the regulators need to come in and put guardrails and clarifications.

[00:12:27] Jeremy: Let me move to diagnostics now if I can. We also know that AI is reading scans and pathology slides a lot faster than specialists. That in itself is astonishing. How do we, against that backdrop then, Jimmy maintain trust when machines are essentially outperforming humans in matters of life and death?

[00:12:46] Jimmy: That’s again another important point. So currently human-in-the-loop I mentioned remains important, so an AI cannot make a diagnosis and act on it when we get to the agentic world.

Agentic AI again, there need to be guardrails to make sure that the agency that these AI systems have is limited to a certain point. They can act to a certain point, and so that’s going to remain really important.

But what we’re seeing today is that AI is being used as tools. So, if there are thousand scans that a human should read, if you apply AI, it’ll probably flag a proportion of them five, ten and then the human will then have a look at the ones that have been flagged and you know, with some confidence.

And then the other part is recalibration. So, every so often, you know, depending on the system, they have to be recalibrated to make sure that they’re not going off piste. And then there also needs to be an audit trail. So, they need to be audited, you know, every now and then, depending on the organisation. These guardrails continue to be important, especially where the technology is moving so fast.

[00:13:51] Jeremy: Do you think that early AI intervention and predictive analytics could redefine what so-called preventative medicine means? In other words, turning healthcare from a cost centre into a real investment in productivity.

[00:14:10] Jimmy: 100%. We think many diseases, indeed, fatal diseases, if caught early will not a problem at all. In fact, the cost in the healthcare system will be reduced. If you think about it, let’s say somebody has a stroke, that somebody will need to be taken by an ambulance, which is a cost, to an A&E department, which is at a cost. They’ll need to be seen by specialists and have all these tests done, which is a cost. They’ll need to be admitted, which is a cost. And then when they get discharged, they need physiotherapy and nursing care, which is a cost, and maybe they’ll be disabled for the rest of their life and they’ll need ongoing care, which is a cost.

If you can prevent the stroke from happening in the first place, you not only save and extend lives, but you also save on all these other costs that are out there, and so one of the really exciting areas we are seeing AI being used is early warning systems. Again, their agency is restricted. They’re just a warning system to say, we think something might be going wrong, much in the same way that currently doctors use early warning systems, you know, you check a patient chart and sees the temperature rising. Is the blood pressure dropping? Is the pulse rate high? Is the respiratory rate fine? You know that early warning system is now being done using AI.

And so it can pick up some of these problems early. And if you can do that across the population, even seemingly healthy people, you can pick up cancer early. If you pick up cancer early, it’s a 100% curable. You know, maybe not 100%, 99% depending on where it is, but if you can catch it early enough, you can cut it out, restrict it, and the cancer is gone. But if you catch it too late, then it results in problems.

So, AI is going to be absolutely critical in terms of advancing preventative care and therefore saving on all those other costs.

[00:15:56] Jeremy: We are going to continue this conversation in just a moment where we’ll look at how artificial intelligence is accelerating drug discovery, also reshaping diagnostics and redefining who rarely holds power in the healthcare ecosystem.

AD: Very quickly though, I do want to remind you that a new episode of No Ordinary Wednesday drops every fortnight. Please don’t miss it. Subscribe to Investec Focus Radio SA wherever you get your podcasts, and if you like the channel, please take a moment to rate us.

[00:16:27] Jeremy: Jimmy, back to you and in a world where data becomes the new drug, I guess you could say, will the competitive advantage start to shift from clinical expertise to data infrastructure?

[00:16:43] Jimmy: 100%. I think there is no question that all the clinical specialists will need to be data experts to retain their proficiency in this new world. You cannot just say, I’m going to do my clinical examination and then just leave it at that. One needs to be a data expert, and I think it’s going to be true for all of us. We are all going to have to learn and use these systems in a new way. We’re all going to have to learn to do things differently.

So yes, the power is going to be accruing to those who can use these tools much better. In fact, one of the interesting quotes that Jensen Huang, the CEO and founder of Nvidia, often says, when asked, is AI going to replace human jobs? His answer is AI is not going to replace human jobs; your job is going to be replaced by someone who knows how to use AI. And I think that’s going to be true in healthcare as well.

[00:17:35] Jeremy: So as AI, Jimmy, begins influencing diagnostic and treatment decisions, I think this is an important question. It’s about accountability when algorithms make errors, is it the coder? Is it the clinician or the corporation? That can be a little ethically murky, I guess.

[00:17:57] Jimmy: Yeah. I think what happens is that one can never indemnify the clinician who initiates a treatment intervention or protocol, right? So, if we think of AI as a tool, it’s much the same as going for a CT scan or an MRI scan. We are just saying instead of an MRI scan, this is now an AI tool that’s helping me to diagnose faster, to make decisions better, to be more consistent with my colleagues, to match the global standard. You know, all those kinds of things. So, if you view it as a tool, then the person who’s going to be responsible is still going to be the clinician who makes the decision, right?

So that’s why human-in-the-loop is important. You’re saying the buck stops with the human who has allowed this AI agent to recommend whatever, just like the same person has said, I want my patient to have an MRI scan. The MRI scan is a tool, much in the same way as AI should be viewed as a tool.

[00:18:57] Jeremy: Let me ask you now a question about regulation, which often lags innovation, I think that’s fair to say. In your opinion then, what kind of oversight will be needed when healthcare decisions are guided by predictive models rather than people?

[00:19:14] Jimmy: Yeah, I think the answer is a lot. We need a lot of regulation and the regulation should not necessarily be politically led or only politically led. It should be with people who are involved in the sector. And, you know I was watching this film called The Thinking Game, which chronicles the journey for Demis Hassabis and DeepMind’s, the guys who you know effectively brought us to theChatGPT moment, so they’re part of Google, but they made the breakthroughs that led to the ChatGPT moment, and one of the striking things from that film is that they didn’t know what they didn’t know, right?

So how do you regulate something that you actually don’t know? And so one of the risks they talked about in that film was that we need to have a mechanism to slow things down, to consider, to let regulation catch up, to think about the consequences, because we cannot afford to just let these systems run amok because they’ll overrun humans without a doubt.

And there was one clear example where in this game called Go, which is very popular in Korea, a very complicated game, they didn’t train the AI, they let the AI train itself, something called reinforcement learning, and it got to a point where it beats the best human players without any human intervention.

So that’s just a window as to what might happen, and therefore we need to make sure that we pause for breath and consider even the most unlikely possibilities when it comes to regulation.

[00:20:47] Jeremy: Let me ask you a question about affordability if I can. Do you think we are at risk possibly of creating a system, a healthcare system where access to AI driven diagnostics or therapies becomes a new dividing line between those who can afford to live longer and those who can’t?

[00:21:04] Jimmy: Yeah. I think in the short term, that’s going to be true and that’s true of many healthcare innovations we’ve had when they discuss it was the rich few who could get access to them. Ironically someone was telling me that in 1800, the life expectancy of the rich was lower than the life expectancy of the poor. And the reason was because the rich could afford the modern medicines of the day, which turned out to be incorrect, right? So, these people were rich enough to purchase these promising treatments that killed them effectively, and the poor ones who couldn’t afford it lived longer because they couldn’t afford to get access to these treatments.

So, I think this is a common thread in history that when innovation starts, yes, it’s the privileged few who get access and it’ll create potentially this two-speed society. However, the pace that AI is working, and we’ve already seen this with the large language models, it is rapidly being commoditised, right?

The cost of compute has fallen one quadrillion times since 2022 when ChatGPT was launched and so we see a world where LLMs just like they are now are going to be ubiquitous and they’re going to be a commodity. It’s not about does someone have access to these technologies, it’s about how will you use it? How clean is your data? How structured is your data? And can you apply it in real life better than other people? That’s what’s going to give you an edge rather than the access per se. But that’s in a few years from now.

[00:22:39] Jeremy: Interestingly, you’ve called this a sector with an I quote, “strong tailwinds”. Very quickly, what role do you think macro trends, such as demographics, geopolitics, and broad digital infrastructure is going to play in sustaining those tailwinds then?

[00:22:56] Jimmy: I think that’s exactly what we see happening, that with demographics,  people are living longer, people are getting better access to healthcare because many emerging markets are becoming richer, effectively, and a younger demographic, you know, there are lots more young people. So, demographics are going to play a significant role in terms of healthcare.

What we also see is that, you know, regulation, politics, those tend to impact the macro picture in the short term. But in the long term, its more things such as demographics, innovation that increases. So, you know, if I go back to my career, an MRI scan was super expensive, not many people could get an MRI scan. Now it’s still expensive, but you know, if you really need it, you know, you’ll probably get an MRI scan done. We think this is going to happen with most of these technologies over time and therefore impact the economics of the healthcare sector.

[00:23:56] Jeremy: We know about volatility, uncertainty, complexity, and ambiguity – we know better as VUCA, which has become your so-called signature lens. How should leaders, in your opinion, be building conviction when the science at this point is still tenuous in many respects, it’s uncertain?

[00:24:14] Jimmy: I think it’s diversification, and that’s the principle we bring to portfolio construction for our different funds and strategies. It’s when you’re early on in this innovation cycle, one needs to diversify across different strategies and opportunities and promising technologies.

You can’t put all your eggs in one basket and so you build conviction. In aggregate, but not in one particular technology. You know, we really don’t know how this is going to turn out. We’ve had many promising technologies before. Do you remember 3D printing? It was going to be a big thing in healthcare. One of the biggest things was the microbiome. A microbiome was all the idea that you’ve got gut microbiota that keep certain people healthy, and if you can harvest that and engineer that and give it to people with a poor gut microbiome, you know, then you can effectively cure any disease they have. Where did that idea go to?

So, you know, you can’t really have built too much conviction in one idea. The best way if you are a leader, is really to diversify and then to monitor closely and pivot if and when necessary.

[00:25:22] Jeremy: And let me finish this fascinating conversation by asking you this question. Maybe just looking into your crystal ball, do you have any sense of what the next major frontier then in healthcare innovation is going to be? Any kind of breakthrough that could redefine how we diagnose, treat or to even prevent disease?

[00:25:41] Jimmy: The next leg of breakthrough is going to be in preventative medicine and AI is going to help that. Let me give you a good example: most drugs don’t work the same in most people, right? There is an important cancer drug that was discovered about 10 years ago, it’s called Keytruda, developed by a company called Merck & Co. Now Keytruda was the first drug that could have an impact on non-small cell lung cancer, which is previously a very, very hard cancer to treat, a type of cancer of the lung. Keytruda was the first product that could actually have an effect. But what they found is that it only works in 40% of the people; 60% of people, it had no effect whatsoever. So now if you’re diagnosed with non-small cells lung cancer, the first thing you get is not Keytruda. The first thing you get is not chemotherapy. The first thing you get is genetic testing. Do you have the right genetic makeup such that Keytruda will have an effect on you?

But that’s just a window of what is actually happening. So many drugs now are being developed with what’s called a companion diagnostic which is personalised to you. Does it actually work? And the more we can use AI, whether it is to look at the genetic makeup of somebody or what’s called the epigenetic makeup, the phenotype – how your environment has influenced your particular makeup.

If you can bring all these things together, then we can actually give medicine that is personalised to you and to me, right? So, we both might be suffering from the same condition but get completely different medicines based on our personalisation.

[00:27:17] Jeremy: And that’s where I am going to leave it at.Dr. Jimmy Muchechetere thank you so much for joining me on this episode of No Ordinary Wednesday. I’ve really enjoyed this conversation.

Please join us again in a fortnight as we continue to explore money trends that are shaping your world. If you haven’t yet added us to your podcast feed search for Investec Focus Radio SA wherever you get your podcasts and hit the subscribe button. Until next time, goodbye from me, Jeremy Maggs and the Focus Radio SA team.

[00:29:40] Disclaimer: While artificial intelligence offers significant opportunities, its adoption also presents risks and challenges. Readers should be aware that outcomes may vary depending on context, and AI solutions should be implemented with careful consideration of ethical, regulatory, contractual and operational factors. This recording does not constitute advice or endorsement of any specific technology or approach

The views expressed are those of the contributors at the time of publication and do not necessarily represent the views of the firm and should not be taken as advice or recommendations. Investec Limited and subsidiaries authorised financial service providers, registered credit providers, and long-term insurer.

Ghost Bites (Harmony Gold | Invicta | Netcare | Oceana | PPC | Prosus – Naspers | Stefanutti Stocks)

2

Harmony Gold pushes further into copper (JSE: HAR)

Eva Copper, acquired in 2022, is ready for development

Harmony Gold has completed the updated feasibility study related to the Eva Copper mine in Australia that was acquired a few years ago. The mine is described as a long-life asset (15 years) with high margins as an open pit development.

The gold mining giants are all taking different approaches to how to deploy their incredible recent wealth. Some are taking the opportunity to invest in gold in new regions, while others are paying down debt or executing major capex projects. As for Harmony, it’s all about adding copper to the portfolio as a “future-facing” commodity. With an estimated project capital budget of $1.55 billion to $1.75 billion for Eva Copper, there are big numbers being allocated here.

As you might recall, Harmony recently acquired MAC Copper in Australia. The two assets are expected to deliver around 100,000 tonnes of copper annually once fully commissioned.

Harmony is committed to paying dividends, so they are looking to fund the Eva project through a mix of internally generated cash flow and external debt instruments. The balance sheet is in great shape (net debt to EBITDA below 1x) and so they shouldn’t have any troubles in raising debt.

There seems to be a great deal of global activity in copper in anticipation of higher demand. This demand will need to materialise, as any disappointment in copper prices will impact the economic returns of the various projects around the world.


Invicta’s growth was boosted by share buybacks (JSE: IVT)

This is a great example of how useful share buybacks can be

Invicta released results for the six months to September 2025. Although revenue was only up by 6%, HEPS was up 15% and the company’s view of “sustainable HEPS” was up 19%.

These HEPS numbers were helped along by the company’s extensive share buybacks, with the weighted average number of ordinary shares outstanding having decreased by over 8% in the past year. If we look at headline earnings instead of HEPS, the increase was only 5.4%.

This means that Invicta has been a mid-single digit growth story, so you shouldn’t expect too many fireworks when digging into the segmental view. Sure enough, most of the year-on-year moves are muted.

There are a couple of interesting stories though. The Capital Equipment (CE) segment was a highlight from a revenue perspective, up 25% thanks to a stronger mining sector in South Africa. Operating profit was up 36%, so that’s a strong story. Replacement Parts for Earthmoving Equipment (RPE) also grew revenue by 25%, but this was largely thanks to the acquisition of Spaldings. Operating profit was up just 6%, so margins need to be watched carefully there.

It’s a solid set of numbers overall in a highly volatile trading environment. The company is following a conservative balance sheet strategy, which means that they should be able to continue allocating cash to share buybacks rather than paying back debt.


Share buybacks boost Netcare’s results (JSE: NTC)

They are making the most of modest real growth in revenue

The hospital sector is a funny old thing. This is a classic case of a mature business where you wouldn’t expect to see high levels of revenue growth. In fact, you wouldn’t want to see rapid revenue growth, as it means that something has gone badly wrong in society that year!

This means that Netcare needs to focus on cost control and other ways to turn modest revenue growth into an excited HEPS story. They’ve gotten it right recently, with revenue growth of 4.5% for the year ended September 2025 and a jump in HEPS of 18.3%. If you use adjusted HEPS, it’s even better with a 20.7% increase.

Operating profit increased by 13.2%, with improved operating margin telling you that they are delivering operational efficiencies. Share buybacks did the rest of the work, with R1.8 billion allocated to recent repurchases.

It’s nice to see that there was a 4% increase in births, bucking the recent trend we’ve seen of pressure on volumes in that space. Mental health paid patient days were up 0.5%. These numbers are obviously skewed by where Netcare is investing in services etc. so I know this isn’t a perfect lens on society by any means, but I always look at these numbers as an indication of how people are doing out there. It seems that the pandemic horrors are truly behind us and that people’s lives are back on track.

With total dividend growth of 21.4%, Netcare itself is certainly on track!

Can they do it again in FY26? The expectation for revenue growth is 4% to 5%, although they do note that EBITDA margin is a high base in FY25. Keep an eye on those share buybacks, as they will be key to driving growth in HEPS.


Fish oil prices drag Oceana lower (JSE: OCE)

Is there a more difficult sector than seafood?

Whenever I write about the seafood sector, I always think about how this is basically the lovechild of all the cyclical and agricultural businesses, combined with the inherent volatility of the ocean. If you crave a life on easy mode, this probably isn’t the sector for you.

These risks have come through strongly in the year ended September at Oceana, where HEPS has dropped by 38.4% despite revenue only decreasing by 0.7%. Group gross profit margin dropped sharply from 31.8% to 27.8%. The main culprit is US dollar fish oil prices, which more than halved from the record levels in the prior year. For the Africa and US fishmeal and fish oil businesses, operating profit fell by 67.1% and 54.4% respectively. Ouch!

A strong performance in Lucky Star (revenue up 6.1% and operating profit up 9.3% as canned fish volumes held steady) just wasn’t enough to offset this impact. Another bright spot is Wild Caught Seafood, where the hake business put in a record performance that helped this segment swing from an operating loss of R53 million to an operating profit of R222 million. For context, the group operating profit was R1.25 billion.

Oceana did their best to limit the pain from fish oil prices in their largest segments, with group operating expenses actually decreasing by 12.3%. Still, operating profit fell by 23.2%, and the rest of the damage to HEPS was done by higher net interest costs due to slightly increased borrowings.

Group net debt to EBITDA increased from 1.3x to 1.7x, but this is mainly due to lower EBITDA rather than a jump in debt. Although capex has now returned to normalised levels, there was pressure on cash from operations due to working capital investment.

The total dividend for the year was 285 cents, down 42.4%. This is worse than the drop in HEPS, so the payout ratio also headed in the wrong direction in this period.

The outlook statement is filled with what you would expect to see: much uncertainty over global catch rates and lots of challenges that they need to overcome in sourcing product. The share price is down more than 22% year-to-date.


Much better margins at PPC (JSE: PPC)

This turnaround is wonderful to watch

PPC has released financials for the six months to September. Their turnaround strategy is called “Awaken the Giant” and they are certainly doing a good job of that!

Revenue increased by 6.2% and EBITDA jumped by 23.5%, with a 260 basis points improvement in EBITDA margin to 18.3%. Although a foreign exchange hedge related to the new Western Cape plant had a negative effect on HEPS, they still grew that all-important metric by 15%. Without the hedge, HEPS would’ve been up 32%.

Here’s a number that speaks volumes about the progress in the turnaround: return on invested capital (ROIC) increased from 7.1% to 13.4%. Sure, it was off a weak base, but just look at that uplift!

In South Africa, revenue was up just 2.4%, yet that was enough for EBITDA to increase by 30.5%. This shows you how lucrative this sector would be if there was meaningful investment in infrastructure in South Africa, as the operating leverage is immense.

In Zimbabwe, revenue was up 23.4% and EBITDA increased by 11%. Margins suffered there due to a planned shutdown in Q1, but dividends of $20 million were upstreamed during the period vs. just $4 million in the prior period.

It’s hard to believe that this company was once focused on reporting its debt metrics and the balance sheet turnaround. Today, profits are flying and finance costs are just R37 million vs. EBITDA of R983 million!

The second half of the year is seasonally weaker than the first half, but they have a number of important projects to keep them busy.


Adjusted EBITDA has doubled at Prosus – Naspers (JSE: PRX | JSE: NPN)

These are great numbers alongside a busy period of deals

Gold may have been the asset on the JSE that shined the brightest this year, but owning Prosus this year has also been a treat. There’s been an interesting correction over the past month in response to pressure on global tech stocks, so volatility is part of the journey here. But I remain a happy shareholder, especially based on the latest numbers.

For the six months to September, group consolidated revenue was up 22% and eCommerce adjusted EBITDA jumped by 70%. Group consolidated adjusted EBITDA doubled (up 99%), so the typical tech sector metrics look great.

South African investors care about HEPS more than anything else (as they should). Core headline earnings increased by 13% and HEPS was up 24% thanks to the extensive share buybacks.

Free cash flow is where the rubber truly hits the road, up meaningfully from $900 million to $1.3 billion. But here’s what I think tells the story best: excluding the Tencent dividend, free cash flow was an inflow of $59 million vs. an outflow of $104 million.

Remember, the strategy here is based on going from “Tencent minus” to “Tencent plus” in terms of the group value. In other words, they want the market to place value on the assets other than Tencent. Showing consistent positive free cash flow in those assets is the way to cement this.

With $2 billion invested in M&A in the first six months of the year, they’ve been on quite the acquisition spree. They’ve also been selling non-core assets, with total proceeds of $1.2 billion over the period. This capital discipline is very important to the investment thesis. They expect another $800 million in divestments in the second half of the year, taking the FY26 total to $2 billion.

2026 guidance has been affirmed for revenue and adjusted EBITDA, excluding any of the numbers at Just Eat Takeaway.com. All eyes will be on the integration of that asset and finding growth through the AI strategy.

Looking at Naspers specifically, the Takealot group (which includes Mr D) grew revenue by 23% in rand and improved adjusted EBITDA by $10 million to $28 million. It’s a rounding error in the broader group context, but still an interesting trajectory as a read-through into online shopping adoption in South Africa.


Stefanutti Stocks locks in a settlement with Eskom (JSE: SSK)

It’s less than the award in favour of the company, but the legal battles are over

Stefanutti Stocks previously announced that they were awarded R685 million by the Dispute Adjudication Board in a claim against Eskom. This was a lifeline for the company, as it would help them sort out a huge chunk of debt.

Eskom played hardball and notified the company that they intend to have the award set aside by the High Court. If successful, this would cause the entire claims process to start again.

In this high-stakes game of chicken, we have a situation where one player is in the private sector and owes a fortune to the banks, whereas the other benefits from government guarantees. Unsurprisingly, Stefanutti Stocks had to blink first.

The companies have agreed to settle not just the claim that was already awarded, but also all the other potential claims in play for a total of R580 million. Eskom has to pay the amount by 12 December 2025. Sure, just one of the claims had been awarded to the quantum of R685 million, but bird-in-the-hand theory and all that jazz.

By the end of February, Stefanutti Stocks has to use at least 80% of the proceeds to settle debt with Standard Bank.


Nibbles:

  • Director dealings:
    • A director of Southern Palladium (JSE: SDL) bought shares worth R501k.
    • A director of KAP (JSE: KAP) bought shares worth R69k. The share price is at very depressed levels after a terrible run, so that’s a bullish indicator.
    • The CEO of Vunani (JSE: VUN) bought shares worth R20k.
  • After they had another round of discussions with Anglo American (JSE: AGL), we now have confirmation from BHP (JSE: BHG) that they won’t be making an offer to merge the companies. This leaves a clear path ahead for the “merger of equals” (ahem) between Anglo American and Teck Resources, unless of course another bidder emerges.
  • A trading statement from HCI (JSE: HCI) for the six months to September 2025 reveals a juicy jump in HEPS of between 69.0% and 79.0%. This is a great example of how HEPS doesn’t catch every possible distortion, as there was a R250 million negative fair value adjustment in the base period (related to the oil and gas prospects in Namibia) that didn’t repeat in this period. Results are expected to come out on 27 November.
  • There are ugly scenes at Novus (JSE: NVS), with a trading statement for the six months to September revealing a drop in HEPS of between 45.2% and 65.2%! This means that earnings probably more than halved, yet the share price is down just 7% over 12 months. The announcement came out after market close on Monday and I suspect we will see a lot of negative action on Tuesday.
  • Here’s another trading statement, this time for small cap Nictus (JSE: NCS). It’s a whole lot bigger than it used to be, with the share price up more than 250% in the past year! HEPS has increased by between 45% and 65% for the six months to September.
  • YeboYethu (JSE: YYLBEE) released results for the six months to September 2025. Thanks to the significant growth in the Vodacom (JSE: VOD) share price as the only underlying asset of the company, the net asset value per share increased by 80%. The final dividend was up 5%, although the dividends in these structures are rarely a good reflection of the underlying economics or the balance sheet. In an effort to pay “trickle dividends” to investors, B-BBEE structures tend to have artificially created payout ratios. The share price is where the action is, with the company up 155% in the past year thanks to the leveraged exposure to Vodacom!
  • Southern Palladium (JSE: SDL) released an update on the drilling activity at the Bengwenyama Project. I’m certainly no geologist, so I have to rely on the management commentary in these types of announcements. This is also why I don’t invest in junior mining, as I’m not qualified to understand any of it! The latest drilling results appear to “reinforce the confidence” of management, so I guess that’s good news.
  • For those following Marshall Monteagle (JSE: MMP) closely (and I suspect there can’t be more than a handful of you doing so), the company’s disposal of property in KwaZulu-Natal for R68.5 million has reached another milestone. The seller has provided a bank guarantee for the full balance, so the transfer can now go ahead. Property deals tend to fall through quite often, so it’s important to reach this step.

Ghost Bites (Blu Label – Cell C | Hammerson | Sea Harvest | Sirius Real Estate | SPAR)

5

The Cell C IPO fell short of the guided pricing (JSE: CCD)

This put even more pressure on the Blu Label (JSE: BLU) share price

Blu Label is down a pretty spectacular 40% over 90 days. It’s even worse if you look at the 52-week high of R18.36, with the current share price roughly 46% off those levels. But to add to the story of volatility, Blu Label is still up around 70% year-to-date! The build-up to the Cell C IPO has been a wild ride.

As I wrote throughout this process, the balance sheets were too complex for me. I don’t get a kick from trying to unravel numbers that look like the aftermath of a ball of wool thrown into a bundle of kittens. As any cat enthusiast will know, kittens are adorable balls of fluff that also come standard with a set of knives. If I’m going to get hurt in the process of trying to untangle something, I’ll take the fluffs over the shares.

That doesn’t stop momentum traders from getting their hands into the fray, buying the market sentiment rather than anything to do with the underlying numbers. Timing is everything when you’re going to play the trading equivalent of musical chairs. The music stopped a few months ago in the Blu Label share price and those who bought the peak hype have been smashed by the sharp negative downturn in sentiment.

The good thing going forwards is that Cell C and Blu Label will now be easier to understand, as many steps have taken place to create simpler, separate balance sheets. This should improve the investor engagement around both companies.

As for Cell C itself, the indicative offer price range for the IPO of R29.50 to R35.50 was not achieved. They could only manage R26.50 per share based on market demand. This still values Cell C at a meaty R9 billion, but it’s much lower than they hoped.

Perhaps the recent updates from the telco sector spooked investors here, as we are seeing strong competition in the prepaid market in South Africa. Much as Cell C may be pushing the MVNO story, they still have substantial exposure to the “traditional” telco services like prepaid.


Hammerson upgrades earnings and acquires the other 50% in The Oracle (JSE: HMN)

The bullish tone was matched by the market response to the news

Hammerson closed 5.6% higher on Friday in response to a positive update around earnings guidance and an acquisition. Let’s begin with the latter.

Hammerson is acquiring the other 50% in The Oracle, Reading, from the JV partner in the property (a subsidiary of the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority). The deal is worth nearly £105 million at a yield of 8.9%. They expect this deal to add around 5% to FY26 earnings.

The property itself is on the up, with strong recent leasing activity and a meaningful improvement in the occupancy ratio. Even footfall is higher, which is good going in a market where online shopping is so prevalent. This trend is visible in the entire portfolio, not just The Oracle, with Hammerson group footfall up 5% in Q3.

There’s been a lot of negative sentiment recently around the UK, so Hammerson’s numbers are a refreshing look at the opportunities in that market. Due to the acquisition, the group has upgraded its FY25 earnings guidance. The medium-term goal of 8% – 10% compound annual growth in earnings per share remains in place.

The positivity has also found its way into the balance sheet, with recent improvements to the credit rating and outlook for the company’s debt. This led to Hammerson springing into action for an early refinancing of its bonds.

Even with the acquisition of The Oracle, the loan-to-value ratio sits at a healthy 37%.


Sea Harvest bids farewell to cheese (JSE: SHG)

They will be focusing on their core seafood assets

I’ve recently been writing about historical mergers in the FMCG space and how some of them have been disasters because of poor strategic fit. This makes the Sea Harvest announcement rather interesting, as they are selling Ladismith Cheese in an effort to focus on their seafood businesses. In other words, they are taking the opposite approach to a merger, choosing to simplify the group rather than add on new pieces.

As a rule of thumb, I support corporate decisions that make a group more logical for investors to understand. You wouldn’t expect to see a cheese business in a company called Sea Harvest, would you?

We’ve also seen Tiger Brands (JSE: TBS) following a strategy of tightening up its product offering and focusing only on products where it has a “right to win” – a sound strategy.

All of this gives important context to the proposed acquisition by Premier (JSE: PMR) of RFG Holdings (JSE: RFG), where there seems to be little or no strategic fit between the two product ranges. History teaches us that corporate mergers like these tend to result in disposals down the line as the merged group decides that certain parts don’t actually fit together.

The focus here is on Sea Harvest, with the decision to sell Ladismith Cheese to Woodlands Dairy. Interestingly, 74.99% in Woodlands Dairy is held by the Gutsche Family Investments, a name you might recognise from the local Coca Cola bottling operations. I’m not sure what more strategic justification could be needed beyond a company named after the sea selling a cheese business to a company that has dairy in the name!

The enterprise value for the deal is R840 million subject to typical working capital adjustments. There’s mixing of drinks in the disclosure, as the financial information for Ladismith suggests profit after tax of R32 million and net asset value of R980 million, neither of which are directly comparable to enterprise value. Ladismith is part of a broader segment at Sea Harvest, so a quick look at the interim financials didn’t help me get closer to a sensible answer around valuation.

Sea Harvest will use the proceeds to repay a portion of the long-term debt in South Africa. This is part of a broader strategy to reduce debt by 50% within three years. Given the volatility of the fishing industry in general, it makes sense to me to reduce debt and avoid that pressure.


Sirius Real Estate closes another acquisition (JSE: SRE)

The deployment of previously raised capital is critical to drive earnings growth

When property funds raise capital, it’s important that they get the money out the door as quickly as possible. Cash drag can have a significant negative impact on earnings, especially on a per-share basis when new shares were issued.

Sirius Real Estate is just one example of a property fund that actively raises capital. They are acquiring properties in both Germany and the UK, with various underlying strategies that include clever tilts like a focus on defence properties in Germany.

As anyone who has bought or sold a property will know, there’s a lag between the announcement of a property acquisition and the finalisation of the transfer. The latest acquisition is a business park in Munich, Germany for €43.7 million. The deal was first announced on 20 October, so it only took a month or so to finalise – that sounds like German efficiency!

This asset is part of the defence strategy, which simply means that the property is designed and operated in a way that appeals to tenants who operate in the defence space. You can imagine characteristics related to security and broader sector supply chains – it doesn’t necessarily mean that tanks are rolling out the door! In this property, the anchor tenant (Excelitas) is involved in optical and photonic solutions.

This business park generates €3.4 million in annualised rent and an EPRA Net Initial Yield of 7.8%. The property is 94% occupied, with a 7.8 year weighted average unexpired lease term.

Sirius is known for buying properties that have upside potential, so they make a point of highlighting the smaller tenants on shorter leases who offer upside potential. The goal here will be to sign new leases at higher rates. It’s also worth noting that these smaller tenants don’t seem to be in the defence industry.


SPAR’s difficult turnaround continues (JSE: SPP)

Much cleaning house was required this year

SPAR has released a trading statement for the 52 weeks ended 26 September. The exit from Poland has continued to plague the numbers, with the debt incurred just to sell the business adding significantly to financing costs. As you may recall, SPAR just about had to pay someone to drag the carcass of Poland away!

This is why HEPS from continuing operations is lower by between 7.5% and 12.5%. The Polish business may be gone, but the related debt burden is still firmly part of continuing operations. To add insult to significant injury, it looks as though they can’t even deduct the interest on that debt for tax!

The other major recent move was the disposal of SPAR Switzerland. Significant management attention has been needed on cleaning up the offshore mess and emerging with a more focused group that stands a chance of doing well.

We don’t have full details of the operating performance yet, but the trading statement notes that revenue and gross profit margin both improved in the second half of the year vs. the weak first half.

Detailed results are expected to be released on 8th December. With the share price down 23% this year, it’s been a tough time for SPAR that will be reflected in those numbers. All eyes are on the future though, as the group has now done the required cleaning up. The question is whether they can compete successfully in their core markets.


Nibbles:

  • Director dealings:
    • An associate of one of the founding directors of WeBuyCars (JSE: WBC) bought shares worth R20.5 million. That’s a strong show of faith after the recent share price pressure!
    • A director of Santova (JSE: SNV) sold shares worth R3.4 million.
    • With fresh results in the market, the CEO of Argent Industrial (JSE: ART) bought shares worth R284k.
    • An associate of the CEO of Grand Parade Investments (JSE: GPL) bought shares worth R113k.
  • MultiChoice (JSE: MCG) announced that Canal+ has made an investor presentation available on the company website that includes financial figures. I cannot find anything on the Canal+ website that aligns to that date. If anyone managed to find it and would like to send the link, I would love to read it!
  • Jubilee Metals (JSE: JBL) released an operational update on its Zambian copper operations. Copper production for the first quarter was up 65% and there were no material power outages, so that’s encouraging. Roan reached stable production this quarter and the Molefe mine commenced operations and deliveries to Sable refinery. The fourth quarter will be important, with a target to increase throughput at Roan by 33% and to almost double monthly production at Molefe. As for their Large Waste Project, they are in discussions with potential project partners. Overall, Jubilee’s copper strategy seems to be meeting targets.
  • With the accelerated bookbuild offering of Pick n Pay (JSE: PIK) shares by the Ackerman family having been completed, the company confirmed that the family’s voting interest is down from 49.0% to 36.8% and their economic interest sits at 18.2%. Shares worth R1.63 billion were sold to achieve this.
  • Cilo Cybin Holdings (JSE: CCC) released a set of financials that should look very different going forwards. The company has concluded the acquisition of Cilo Cybin Pharmaceutical in a deal that closed right at the end of the reporting period. This means that they incurred vast once-off costs without much benefit in revenue in this period. The group’s loss after tax was R212.1 million. Excluding the IFRS 2 charge related to the deal, they would’ve made profit of R5 million (slightly down vs. R6 million in the comparable period). Full focus will now be on the group’s new form.
  • Zimbabwean industrial cables company Cafca Limited (JSE: CAC), has almost no liquidity in their stock, yet they put more effort into their SENS announcement than most small-caps on the JSE (and even a few mid-caps). The company confirmed that the USD is the currency of choice for most local transactions, with a strong tobacco harvest helping the Zimbabwean economy recently. Government allowed the imports of cheap cables though, so this prevented Cafca from taking advantage. Revenue fell by 3% in real terms and operating profit was down 50%. They managed profit after tax of $1.9 million vs. $5.8 million in the prior period.

The South Sea bubble: a financial crash to remember

If you’ve been watching the current frenzy around artificial intelligence – the breathless predictions, the overnight billionaires, the declarations that civilisation is either saved or doomed – you may feel a faint sense of déjà vu as you read this article. 

Every few centuries, humanity convinces itself that its latest invention will transform the world so completely that old rules no longer apply. Today, that invention is AI. Three hundred years ago, it was a British joint-stock company with a glamorous name, a royal endorsement, and about as much real earning potential as a broken vending machine.

The South Sea Company promised to shrink the national debt, conquer international trade, and shower investors with endless wealth. What it actually delivered was probably the first financial implosion in history. But before the bubble burst, it began (as these things often do) with an idea that sounded (almost) reasonable.

Act I: An empire, a debt, and a very big promise

In 1711, Britain was staggering under a mountain of debt left behind by the War of the Spanish Succession. Parliament’s solution was to create a public–private company that would somehow make money while also helping the government tidy up its finances. Thus the South Sea Company was born, carrying the sort of sweeping optimism usually reserved for national lotteries and new-year gym memberships.

The company was granted a lucrative trading monopoly in the Americas, including the asiento, a contract allowing it to supply enslaved Africans to the Spanish and Portuguese empires. Slave traders had been making money hand-over-fist for centuries, and people were confident that once the War of the Spanish Succession ended, profits would explode like a cork from a champagne bottle.

Enthusiasm was high. Morality was, unsurprisingly for the era, not part of the conversation. Humanity has thankfully come a long way.

To sweeten the prospect, the company offered investors a 6% return, which was enough to convince the public that this venture was not only grand but inevitable. It seemed perfectly timed: the war would end, the seas would open, and the company would flourish. At least, that was the dream.

Act II: The dream meets reality

When the Treaty of Utrecht finally brought peace in 1713, the company rushed to claim its anticipated glory – and immediately ran into a Spanish wall. Far from rolling out the red carpet, Spain imposed tight restrictions on Britain’s trading rights. Taxes were increased, paperwork multiplied, and British ships were limited to exactly one vessel per year for “general trade,” a phrase so broad and useless you could practically hear investors grinding their teeth.

One ship per year was not going to deliver the fortune everyone had imagined. Still, the company pressed on, and the public continued to believe that any day now, the oceans would part and the profits would pour in.

Then came an unexpected gift: in 1718, King George I himself agreed to become the company’s governor. It was the 18th-century equivalent of the president of a country endorsing a listed company (now where have we seen that play out this year, hmm?). Unsurprisingly, public trust in the South Sea Company soared. If the king himself believed in the company, how bad could it be?

Act III: The bubble begins to swell

Despite the lack of meaningful trade, the South Sea Company began returning extraordinary interest to shareholders. The secret, of course, was that the money wasn’t coming from commerce. It was coming from the shares themselves. As more people bought in, the price climbed. As the price climbed, more people bought in. It was a beautifully circular system, assuming you never asked what it was based on.

The company’s directors were so determined to keep the momentum going that they began encouraging, cajoling, and in some cases bribing well-connected acquaintances to purchase shares. Word spread that fortunes were being made, and soon the entire country seemed to be caught up in the excitement. People sold their homes to buy stock. Servants pooled their wages. Aristocrats mortgaged land that had been in their families since the Tudors. Even Sir Isaac Newton, who initially made a tidy profit after investing and selling early, watched prices continue to rise and decided he must have been too cautious. He bought back in at the height of the frenzy.

Act IV: Parliament fans the flames

In 1720, the madness came to a head when Parliament allowed the South Sea Company to take over Britain’s entire national debt. The company purchased the £32 million debt at a fraction of its value, promising it could manage the interest payments through its booming stock sales. Investors were invited to exchange their government bonds for company shares, a move that boosted confidence even higher. The cycle intensified: the more investors joined, the higher the price rose, and the higher the price rose, the more foolish it seemed to stay out.

By August of that year, the share price reached an astonishing £1,000 (or around £180,000 in today’s money). The South Sea Company had become the glittering centre of British dreams – not because of what it had achieved, but because of what people believed it was about to achieve. Reality was a distant, inconvenient rumour.

Act V: The fall

Bubbles, unfortunately, do not announce when they are about to burst. In September 1720, the frenzy finally snapped. Confidence wavered and questions began to surface. The smallest tremor of hesitation was enough: prices wobbled, then plunged. Those who had borrowed to buy shares found themselves ruined overnight. Entire fortunes collapsed in weeks. By December, shares were down to £124, an 80% loss from their peak. The country was gripped by outrage, despair, and disbelief.

Newton, who reportedly lost around £20,000 (a cool £3 million in today’s money), is said to have remarked: “I can calculate the motions of the heavenly bodies, but not the madness of men”. The irony is hard to miss: the man who understood gravity better than anyone failed to spot the gravitational pull of mass delusion.

Act VI: Picking up the pieces

The crisis was so severe that Parliament launched an investigation. What it uncovered was a catalogue of bribery, corruption, reckless speculation, political manipulation, and a general disregard for anything resembling sense. 

But not everyone had been swept up in the mania. A pamphleteer named Archibald Hutcheson had been warning anyone who would listen that the company’s shares were wildly overvalued. He estimated their true worth at around £200, and history proved him remarkably accurate. I can only imagine that he was an absolute pain to be around in the weeks that followed. 

To restore confidence in the financial system, Parliament passed the Bubble Act of 1720, which restricted the formation of joint-stock companies without explicit royal approval. It was an attempt to prevent another national disaster, though (as history has proven) it did little to curb human enthusiasm for grand promises dressed in shiny packaging.

In a twist almost too absurd to believe, the South Sea Company survived the scandal. After a major restructuring, it continued trading (quietly and unglamorously) until 1853. Many of the other “bubble companies” launched during the South Sea frenzy vanished without trace, though a few, including the Royal Exchange and London Assurance, still exist today.

The echoes of 1720

Today, financial historians, economists, and anyone who has ever watched a market soar beyond reason find themselves returning to the South Sea Bubble with a mixture of fascination and disbelief. The patterns are eerily familiar: grand promises, charismatic promoters, a wave of optimism that drowns out caution, and a collective certainty that this time, finally, the rules of reality have changed.

Whether the current excitement around AI will be remembered as a genuine revolution or another shimmering bubble remains to be seen. Every age produces its own South Sea Company, its own irresistible dream, its own version of the claim that the future has arrived and that this time, the profits will surely follow.

About the author: Dominique Olivier

Dominique Olivier is the founder of human.writer, where she uses her love of storytelling and ideation to help brands solve problems.

She is a weekly columnist in Ghost Mail and collaborates with The Finance Ghost on Ghost Mail Weekender, a Sunday publication designed to help you be more interesting. She now also writes a regular column for Daily Maverick.

Dominique can be reached on LinkedIn here.

Ghost Bites (Argent Industrial | City Lodge | Crookes Brothers | Delta Property | Kore Potash | Investec | Lewis | Mr Price | Netcare | Reunert | Supermarket Income REIT)

0

An interesting segmental story at Argent Industrial (JSE: ART)

And a strong group performance overall

Argent Industrial released results for the six months to September 2025. They look solid to say the least, with revenue up 12.4%, EBITDA up 13.2% and HEPS increasing by 13.3%. That’s quite an unusual shape, as there isn’t much margin expansion despite a strong top-line performance.

The segmental story is rather interesting. In South Africa, revenue was down 3.1% and profit increased by 9.6%. In the Rest of World segment, which contributed over two-thirds of group profit in this period, revenue was up 38% and profit only increased by 13.5%. It’s amazing how the group margin can look so steady, yet the underlying segments experienced significant changes. This is true for so many companies out there, particularly when they are making acquisitions and bringing in businesses that have structurally different margins.


City Lodge: I’m very happily in the green (JSE: CLH)

And all you needed to do was read the previous announcement (or Ghost Bites)

When I wrote about City Lodge in early September based on earnings for the year ended June 2025, I included this paragraph:

“We now get to the particularly good news: July and August 2025 saw an uptick in occupancy of 400 basis points year-on-year. Food and beverage revenues jumped by 16% and 14% for July and August respectively. To add to this, the group is now debt free. Perhaps it’s time for that share price chart to start heading back into the green?”

I thought about it for a bit, tested the thesis with a few people and then decided to go long myself. The market just wasn’t picking up on this uptick in occupancy, so it struck me as an opportunity.

I’m now up 25% thanks to the market taking its sweet time to catch onto what the company was saying. That’s exactly why investors talk about the opportunity to generate alpha (returns in excess of the market) in local stocks, particularly among mid-caps that are big enough to matter and small enough to fly under the radar of most investors.

The latest operational update at City Lodge only adds to the good news, with the company noting a 460 basis points uptick in occupancy for the four months to October 2025. Combined with an inflationary increase of 3% in average room rates, things are looking good. November month-to-date is even better, with occupancy up by a whopping 800 basis points year-on-year to 65%!

You won’t find a more up-to-date view than this: the announcement notes that group occupancy “last night” was 90.7%. That’s fantastic at this relatively early stage in the holiday season.

The good news continues in the food and beverage business, where the first four months were up 16%. In November, they are up 32% thus far!

Looking beyond our borders, Botswana is struggling due to diamond industry pressures among other reasons, but they have seen some recent improvement. Namibia is doing well. Mozambique seems to be on the up.

To add to the happiness, City Lodge repurchased 6.1% of shares in issue (measured at at the beginning of the 2026 financial year) at an average price of R4.00 per share. The share price is now trading above R5.

There are some great companies on the local market that get ignored by investors until all the best returns have been made. Sometimes, all you need to do is read and pick up the bread crumbs that management is leaving for you.


A reminder from Crookes Brothers that agriculture is really hard (JSE: CKS)

There are just so many exogenous factors in this industry

Business is hard enough when you’re able to control most of the things that affect your profitability. In some sectors, the biggest drivers of earnings are external, which means that management focuses on “controlling the controllables” while asking the deity of their choice for help with the rest.

A trading statement from Crookes Brothers for the six months to September lays bare the difficulties in the agriculture sector. HEPS is expected to drop by between 42% and 46%, driven mostly by softer commodity prices (beyond their control) and extreme weather events that hit the banana and macadamia segments (also beyond their control).

It’s hard to think of a tougher industry!


Steady funds from operations at Delta Property (JSE: DLT)

This is quite the achievement for this group

If you’ve ever watched a movie where somebody is digging their way out of a jail cell with a spoon, then you’ll have some idea of how hard things have been for Delta. With a loan-to-value ratio that is too high and a property portfolio that is filled with difficult buildings, they’ve had to chip away at the debt by selling off properties as often as they can.

Kudos to management: persistence has paid off. The share price is up nearly 70% year-to-date as this speculative play has paid off for those who took a punt. The main reason for the upswing is that the company has stabilised, with funds from operations per share actually increasing from 8.1 cents to 9.2 cents. Combined with a loan-to-value ratio that has improved from 59.5% to 58.4%, it seems that the worst is behind them.

They still have plenty of vacancies to try and fill, with the vacancy rate improving from 31.9% to 29.7%. They are achieving this through new leases and the disposal of properties that they can’t fill.

With a 100% rental collection rate (!) and now a decrease in interest rates in South Africa, it feels like things will start to get easier for Delta.


Kore Potash has raised capital to cover the next 12 months (JSE: KP2)

This removes the near-term pressure and allows them to properly consider any offers

Based on recent announcements, we know that Kore Potash has attracted some potential suitors. This isn’t a surprise, as the company has gotten through some major hurdles related to the Kola Project in the Republic of Congo. This puts it at an interesting point on the risk/reward curve.

My concern was that the balance sheet would force Kore Potash to act too quickly on these negotiations, as they need capital to move forward with the project. The company has addressed this issue by raising $12.2 million with existing shareholders and new institutional and other investors.

They need $2.2 million for the final payment to PowerChina International Group, as well as $3 million for advisory and legal costs. The rest is going on other costs and general working capital.

They might be able to raise more, as the two largest shareholders (the Oman Investment Authority and Sociedad Química y Minera) each have the opportunity to invest in more shares to avoid being diluted. Such an investment would be in addition to this $12.2 million raised elsewhere.


Return on Equity has dipped at Investec (JSE: INL | JSE: INP)

Earnings might have grown modestly, but ROE matters more

Investec’s share price fell 5.2% on Thursday in response to the release of results for the six months to September 2025. The banking group grew revenue by 2.4%, adjusted operating profit by 1.5% and HEPS by 3.4% (all measured in ZAR).

The currency plays a big role here due to the extent of UK business interests. Expressing those numbers in GBP leads to negative growth in revenue and adjusted operating profit, with just 0.3% growth in HEPS.

ROE is where the rubber hits the road in banking. Investors care about the returns that the bank can achieve with their capital, so ROE tends to be a major driver of the valuation multiple for a banking group. Investec’s ROE has unfortunately dipped from 13.9% to 13.6%. Combined with low growth, this would’ve contributed to the drop in the share price as the market digested the numbers. The mitigating factor from a valuation perspective is that the tangible NAV per share increased by 7.9% in ZAR.

Net core loans increased by 8%, but declining interest rates and lower income in the SA investments portfolio led to pre-provision adjusted operating profit decreasing by 2.6%. The credit loss ratio on core loans was 35 basis points, an improvement vs. 42 basis points in the comparable period and well within the target range. The reason for the decline in earnings is more to do with pricing rather than concerns around credit quality.

An interesting nugget is that trading and investment income is down in SA, as the base period included the sharp upswing in sentiment from the formation of the GNU.

Investec expects second-half performance to be broadly in line with the interim period, so there isn’t much for investors to feel excited about there. The group needs to show some progress on moving ROE higher despite the interest rate decreases that will impact margins.


Excellent numbers at Lewis (JSE: LEW)

Margins are up and the footprint has expanded rapidly

Lewis has released results for the six months to September 2025. The group has a strong reputation for turning difficult operating conditions into great numbers. And in this period, they took a more bullish view on the environment by opening more new stores in a six-month period than ever before.

Revenue was up 11.3% overall, including solid contributions from value-added lines like insurance revenue. If we focus purely on merchandise sales, we find total growth of 6.7% and comparable store sales of 2.3%.

Notably, cash sales were up 3.7% and credit sales were up 8.0%. It’s not a surprise seeing this, particularly as the furniture sector has always been reliant on credit sales. At Lewis, credit sales are 70.3% of total merchandise sales.

Cost growth of 10% was impacted by the store rollout programme, so it would be best to compare this number to total revenue growth rather than comparable store sales.

Operating profit was up by a juicy 21.4% as the operating margin moved 250 basis points higher to 20.7%. HEPS came in 16% higher, with a jump in net finance costs blunting the story between operating profit and HEPS.

The interim dividend increased by 12.3%. When you consider the rapid expansion and capex investment as the backdrop to this story, double-digit growth in the dividend is impressive.

For the remainder of the year, the expansion in store footprint will focus on specialist bedding brands. And although management doesn’t explicitly say it, it’s worth remembering that the second half of the year is up against a base period that includes the two-pot boost.


Mr Price: an earnings rally, but can it break out of the current range? (JSE: MRP)

This is my long position in the sector

The apparel retail sector has been a fascinating story to follow this year. Just take a look at the year-to-date chart:

The only position I hold of these four names is Mr Price. I bought at an in-price of R203.05, as my view is that it was the baby thrown out with with the bathwater – The Foschini Group (JSE: TFG) and Truworths (JSE: TRU).

It’s been a sideways story for a couple of months, with my position now 8% in the green thanks to a 7% rally on the day of results at Mr Price. I’m certainly hoping for more obviously, with the idea being that Mr Price closes some of the gap to Pepkor (JSE: PPH).

So, what do the numbers at Mr Price for the 26 weeks to 27 September tell us?

Firstly, total revenue is up 5.4% and gross margin expanded by 30 basis points to 40.0%, so that’s an encouraging start. Operating margin was up 10 basis points to 11.5%. This means there was some margin expansion, but not as much as I would’ve liked to see based on that gross margin expansion. By the time we reach the bottom of the income statement, diluted HEPS was up 6.4%.

In-store sales were up 5.4% and online sales were up 9.7%, so Mr Price is responding to the omnichannel opportunity rather than playing any kind of leading role in it. They increased their weighted average trading space by 3.5%.

Mr Price is primarily a cash model, which is one of the things I like most about it. Cash sales were 88.2% of retail sales and increased 5.6%, while credit sales grew by just 4.3%.

Looking deeper into the business, the Telecoms segment was the best performer with retail sales up by 12.4%. It only contributes 3.8% to group sales though, so it won’t move the dial by itself.

The Home segment contributes 17.7% and is thus more important than Telecoms, with growth of 5.1%. Within that segment, Yuppiechef has continued its excellent performance with double-digit growth.

The Apparel segment is 78.5% of group sales and grew by 5.3%, with the expanded gross margin being particularly impressive when you compare this to the numbers we’ve seen elsewhere in the SA apparel sector.

The balance sheet is in excellent shape, with no debt and cash of around R3 billion to fund capex and other growth opportunities.

Mr Price has flagged a tougher second half in terms of year-on-year comparison, as the prior period included the boost from two-pot withdrawals. On the plus side, operational improvements at the Durban port have positively impacted the inventory position. For the first 7 weeks of the new period, retail sales are up 3.3% against a base period that grew 12.3%, so that’s an acceptable two-year stack.

I’m happy with this. Mr Price is strongly outperforming The Foschini Group and Truworths. It might be lagging behind Pepkor, but it’s doing so with cash sales rather than meaningful credit exposure. I feel like I bought at the right time (more or less).


A juicy jump in earnings at Netcare (JSE: NTC)

They’ve carried on where they left off in the interim period

Netcare has had a fantastic year. In a trading statement for the year ended September 2025, they’ve highlighted a jump in adjusted HEPS of between 19% and 22%. This is a lovely continuation from the interim period, where adjusted HEPS was up 20%.

In case you’re wondering, HEPS (without adjustments) is up by between 17% and 20%, so don’t let the adjustments scare you. It’s been a great year for them.

There are a number of drivers of these earnings, ranging from better activity through to cost efficiencies, lower interest rates and the benefit of share buybacks.

Despite this, the share price is basically flat year-to-date, having been on a wild journey that looks like the side profile of a pre-G20 Sandton pavement:

Full details will be released on 24 November. I look forward to understanding more about the performance.


A vastly better second half at Reunert (JSE: RLO)

Can they capitalise on this momentum?

Reunert has released results for the year ended September. Revenue from continuing operations was down 2% and operating profit fell 8%, while HEPS was down 5%. That’s not great.

But here’s the thing: compared to the interim results, these numbers look fantastic. Reunert was down 5% in revenue and 20% in HEPS at the halfway mark. With a 6% improvement in HEPS in the second half of the year, they’ve managed to stem the bleeding. They will hope to carry that momentum into the new year.

Another positive element to these numbers is the cash flow. The final dividend was up 6% and net cash jumped by 39%, so this is very much a story of cash generation in a difficult environment. I guess that’s better than poor cash flow in a strong environment, but it’s still not exactly what shareholders want to see.

With all to play for in a new financial year, Reunert will hope for improvement in the Electrical Engineering segment in particular. Revenue was down 3% and operating profit tanked 31% in this part of the business, with the double whammy of weak infrastructure investment in South Africa and the impact of tariffs on exports to the US.

The ICT sector also had a tough time, with flat revenue and a 9% reduction in operating profit. In Applied Electronics, revenue was down by 7%, but operating profit jumped by 21% as they focused on margins. The Defence business has a strongly positive narrative and the Renewable Energy business grew EBITDA year-on-year.

The share price is showing strong momentum now, with a long way to go to get back to where it started this year:


Supermarket Income REIT buys more “omnichannel stores” (JSE: SRI)

This shows you how entrenched the omnichannel model is in Europe

South African online shopping penetration is still way below what you’ll see in markets like the UK. It is growing rapidly though, with companies like Shoprite (JSE: SHP) and The Foschini Group (JSE: TFG) leading the way in their respective sectors, while competitors hustle to try and catch up. As a sign of where we might get to in South Africa, we can look to Supermarket Income REIT in the UK.

This company recently announced the acquisition of a portfolio of Carrefour supermarkets in France that were seen as “omnichannel stores” – the rents are affordable and the catchment area is lucrative.

This language has come through once more in the latest announcement for an acquisition of 10 Asda supermarkets in the Blue Owl Capital joint venture. Much like the Carrefour deal, this is also a sale and leaseback transaction. The Asda supermarkets have 25-year leases and annual CPI-linked rent reviews with a cap of 4% and a floor of 1%. They are described as stores that support online fulfilment and click-and-collect services. In modern retail, stores are just an extension of the distribution network.

Supermarket Income REIT is also transferring five of its assets into the joint venture to help it achieve scale. The assets are being transferred at a 3% premium to book value and the company will receive an annual management fee.


Nibbles:

  • Director dealings:
    • The CEO of Mondi (JSE: MNP) bought shares worth just over R4.7 million.
    • A non-executive director of Brait (JSE: BAT) bought shares worth R660k. Separately, Christo Wiese (acting through Titan Premier Investments) bought shares worth R3.7 million.
  • ASP Isotopes (JSE: ISO) released its quarterly numbers for the period ended September. The company is putting in place the route to market for its products and is preparing Quantum Leap Energy for a distinct listing, so the market value and the investment thesis aren’t really based on current numbers. Still, bulls will need to be comfortable with a net loss for the quarter of $12.9 million vs. a loss of $7.3 million in the comparable quarter. The year-to-date comparison is even more severe, with a loss of $96.4 million vs. $23.2 million.
  • Here are some interesting numbers at Deneb (JSE: DNB): a trading statement for the period ended September 2025 reflects an expected jump in HEPS of between 91% and 111%. This means that earnings have roughly doubled! I look forward to seeing the detailed results on 27 November.
  • Renewable energy may be a lovely asset class for people to feel good about the world, but it’s by no means a licence to print money. Power generation is variable based on Mother Nature herself, plus there are all of the usual maintenance and other issues to think about. Mahube Infrastructure (JSE: MHB) demonstrates this with a trading statement for the six months to August, where negative fair value movements have made them swing from positive HEPS of 67.58 cents to a headline loss of between 30.77 cents and 34.01 cents. They also flagged lower dividend income from underlying investments due to operational challenges at one of the wind assets. Full details should become available on 28 November.
  • It might be time to get the popcorn out for Trustco (JSE: TTO), as the company has announced that Riskowitz Value Fund has demanded a shareholders’ meeting to consider the appointment of a new board of directors. The company is considering the validity of the demand and will make a further announcement in due course.
  • Here’s an interesting one for you: Brait (JSE: BAT) has hedged part of its stake in Premier (JSE: PMR), giving them protection (on that portion) from the Premier share price dropping below R166.69. They also give away any upside above R186.16. Premier is currently trading at just over R167, so they are locking in some of the recent gains. This structure reduces Brait’s economic interest in Premier from 32.3% to 28.7%.
  • In case you’ve been wondering, Orion Minerals (JSE: ORN) has updated the market on the financing and offtake agreement with Glencore (JSE: GLN). Glencore is in the final stages of its technical and financial due diligence, while the legal due diligence has been largely completed. The parties are working towards binding terms for the deal. They expect to sign docs by the middle of December.
  • Spear REIT (JSE: SEA) announced that the acquisition of Berg River Business Park in Paarl for just over R182 million has been completed. Their loan-to-value ratio after the deal is sitting on between 21% and 22%. For context around the relative size of this deal, the gross portfolio value is now R6.39 billion.
  • Labat Africa (JSE: LAB) announced that the Classic Transaction has been completed and all profit warranty conditions have been met. The 116.5 million shares related to this acquisition have been issued and listed at an issue price of R0.07. The share price is currently around R0.05.
  • Africa Bitcoin Corporation (JSE: BAC) announced that Forvis Mazars South Africa has been appointed as the group’s external auditor. This doesn’t surprise me at all, as Wiehann Olivier (the audit partner) has particular interest in crypto. Look out for a podcast with him coming soon on the topic of blockchain and regulation in that space!
  • Efora Energy (JSE: EEL) has released a bland cautionary about “various negotiations” that could affect the company’s securities. The company is suspended from trading anyway.

Ghost Stories #83: Winners vs. missed opportunities in 2025 – and finance tips for entrepreneurs

Listen to the show using this podcast player:

Duma Mxenge (Head of Business and Market Development at Satrix) joined me right at the start of the year to talk about some of the things we would be looking out for in the markets this year. With the benefit of hindsight, we could now dig into some of our winners, overall surprises and missed opportunities in 2025.

We also took the opportunity to talk about the nuances for entrepreneurs when it comes to personal financial management. Drawing on my own experience, I shared some of the strategies I use for dealing with variable income. As Duma has these conversations with other entrepreneurs on a regular basis, he threw some great insights into the mix about how entrepreneurs tend to think about their wealth creation journeys – and the biggest mistake they make: treating their businesses as their retirement plans.

This podcast was first published here.

Satrix Investments (Pty) Ltd & Satrix Managers (RF) (Pty) Ltd is an authorised financial services provider. The information does not constitute advice as contemplated in FAIS. Use or rely on this information at your own risk. Consult your Financial Adviser before making an investment decision. While every effort has been made to ensure the reasonableness and accuracy of the information contained in this document (“the information”), the FSP’s, its shareholders, subsidiaries, clients, agents, officers and employees do not make any representations or warranties regarding the accuracy or suitability of the information and shall not be held responsible and disclaims all liability for any loss, liability and damage whatsoever suffered as a result of or which may be attributable, directly or indirectly, to any use of or reliance upon the information. For more information, visit https://satrix.co.za/products.

Full Transcript:

The Finance Ghost: Welcome to this episode of the Ghost Stories podcast. It’s another one with Satrix and with a gentleman who I always just really enjoy chatting to. That is Duma Mxenge. He is the Head of Business and Market Development at Satrix. 

Duma, I always enjoy these podcasts with you. The last one we did was like 10 months ago. We seem to always do the annual kickoff show and then you go off, get into the washing machine of life and get basically thrown around for 10 or 11 months, as do I. Then someone presses pause and says, “Wait, these two should speak to each other again.” And here we are, to do exactly that. So, welcome! 

Duma Mxenge: Thank you! And I’m excited to be back on your podcast, Ghost. Thank you for having me. 

The Finance Ghost: No, it’s a great pleasure. It always is. So, let’s jump straight into it and let’s look back on the 10 months or so since we spoke. I’m curious about what some of the wins have been in the market that might have surprised you. Specifically your biggest win (if you’re willing to share), otherwise, any of the wins that you might have observed out there as well. And as I said, was it a surprise? Was it something that you expected? Give us the good news part of the report card here. 

Duma Mxenge: I guess I can’t speak of my own book. My approach, I have to be honest, is that I etcetera. What I tend to do is once a year, annually, I kind of sit down, look at the trends – so based on what we’re seeing in 2024, what we think 2025 would look like. And then on the back of that, I try and think, “Okay, cool, so how do I then position my portfolio?” 

And when we talk about that, I kind of think of it, Ghost, in three buckets. Your savings bucket remains the same, so it’s either in money markets or your income funds as well (or flexible income, if you’re into that). Then, when you get to your medium-term bucket, like three to five years – I typically put it into balance funds. 

The position that I’m going to talk about here is more in the bucket of more than five years, which is more wealth creation or aligning it as a complementary to my retirement. 

And essentially what I’ve done is pretty simple, basic weightings. I’ve got 30% in the local market (because I feel like I’ve got a better understanding of the local market) – and that’s normal ETFs – the Satrix Top 40. And then offshore, it’s been a mixture of the developed world versus the developing market, so I’ve got a slight overweight to emerging markets. I kind of like the story, especially in terms of what’s happening in China as well as in India, so I did that in December. 

But then you had tariffs. You’re like, “Oh my goodness, what’s going on? Like, shucks, man – should I be doing anything?” And over and above that – obviously you’ve got your own personal portfolio, so I don’t know how you felt – you’re also having clients saying: “Is this the time now to sort of sit out on the market?” I’m like, “No, no, that’s not what you do. This is a long-term portfolio. You’ve made this decision, stick it out.” 

But I have to say that, 10 months later, the local market has been roaring. I think we’ll get into it in terms of what the drivers were. And with the offshore market, I think my overweight to emerging market versus DM has actually also benefited quite handsomely. I’ve missed stuff, but I want to hear you before I share stuff that I’ve missed in the local market. 

The Finance Ghost: Yeah, look, there are always misses, right? A couple of things that I just want to comment on there which I really love: So, having the different buckets – it’s great. I think people can take a lot from that. And that’s really just risk buckets at the end of the day. It’s the immediate emergency fund stuff, then it’s, “Okay, beyond that, I need stuff that I can at least have access to if I need it, but it’s earning a decent return.” And then there’s, as you say, the “over-five-years wealth-creation, pure-equity-risk” bucket. 

And I actually think it’s pretty cool that you sit once a year, figure out what you want to do, allocate accordingly (or at least have a plan accordingly – whether you allocate during the year or not), and then look again down the line or if there’s something major that’s changed, while you get on with your day job. 

That’s a very healthy relationship with investing, and I think a lot of people could do well by emulating some of that. There are far too many people who treat the market like an overexcited Jack Russell that’s just barking all the time: “You must give it attention. I have to do something now.” That’s not true. Not doing something is also a choice, and just leaving your money to compound is actually often the smartest choice. 

I would encourage listeners to go listen to the podcast with Kingsley from Satrix, which would have been released just before this one. Go and have a look because there we actually spoke about how valuable it would have been to buy the dot-com crisis and then just ride it out. Now, obviously, that’s one specific example that’s worked out brilliantly, but there’s a good lesson in there. 

JSE Top 40, Duma – I can’t believe you’re doing this podcast. Aren’t you retired on a yacht, if you had a lot of Top 40 this year? You’re basically a gold baron. Well done! 

Duma Mxenge: It was purely by diversification! There was no super thinking around that. I’ve really benefited from being in the right portfolio that actually gives you the right exposure in terms of what has done well in the South African market. 

The Finance Ghost: Well, well done, because it certainly did do well, and you would have done very well out of it, so good job. I’ll touch on a couple of my winners. I’ve had a few that have made me very happy this year.

So, I really timed it beautifully with Prosus right at the start of the year. Share price did this weird reaction to something that happened and I thought, “No, no, no. I really like the new CEO. I’ve been waiting to get in.” It’s kind of been on my watch list. I was waiting for weakness. And my Prosus position is up 80%, so that’s rather delightful. 

Duma Mxenge: Nice!

The Finance Ghost: International tech has obviously continued to do the things. I’m mildly terrified about when this bubble pops, not if this bubble pops. But all of those companies are in my over-five-years bucket, like yours. And the reality is, if/when it pops and things drop hard, I’m waiting. I’m waiting at the bottom, thank you very much. I’ll add to my favourite positions that I hope will make a lot of money for me over literally decades. 

Duma Mxenge: I see. So you’re saying you’re not in, you’re waiting. 

The Finance Ghost: No, I’m in. I’m in! I’m just waiting to buy more. The point is I’m not selling, so I am deeply in. I continue to have to manage myself in terms of not taking profit and not saying, “Oh, the run is over. Let me get out.” Because then obviously you create a tax event for yourself, is the first point. And the second point is that it can just keep going. And even if it goes another 50% and then it drops 20%, guess what? It wasn’t a smart move to wait for the drop. You still lost out.

So, that’s the point: it’s hard to time these things. Timing the sale is really difficult. I think timing a sensible purchase, in some ways, is easier. That has started to become my approach to the market.

Another single-stock win that I’ll call out: Weaver Fintech. There’s a local one for you. Really happy with how that’s gone, the little buy-now-pay-later business. That’s up more than 50% since I bought.

And then ETFs. So, tech, as I spoke about – I’ve still got some nice exposure into some of those. 

What we spoke about at the beginning of this year (you may recall we did a bit of a rent-versus-buy situation). I said to you that for the time being, I’m positioning a good chunk of my tax-free savings in REITs, because I think there’s still some upside in some of those property names. They’re paying good yields. That has pretty much been what’s happened, and the property market has gone from strength to strength. They’re doing capital raising now, which is always a sign that things are getting a little bit hot, but not quite there. So, that’s still a healthy market. I’m still very happy with that. 

I haven’t bought a house. I did change the target area, but we’re not going to… we won’t get into all the details on that. If someone wants to listen to rent-versus-buy in detail, go find the podcast I did with Duma earlier this year. TL;DR: I’m still renting, still happy with that. Still buying REITs in my tax-free savings account. 

Those have been some of the wins. I can’t say that any of them have been massive surprises, because I bought the stuff I bought because I thought it would do well (if that makes sense). So, it’s more the stuff that I maybe missed. I had some gold. Obviously, I wish I had all the gold. That would have been amazing. Everyone wishes that, that’s just how it goes. 

What’s been your biggest disappointment? Because I’ve definitely had a couple of those. 

Duma Mxenge: It is exactly the same thing that you just mentioned – it’s more the misses than disappointment in the current environment. And for me, it’s gold, definitely. And as well as resources, more like the RESI, because our RESI has done exceptionally well. I give myself a little bit of leeway and say, “Look, I really didn’t do the work.” 

And not having done the work, and now you want to participate on the next biggest craze. It’s also problematic because you’re going in for the wrong reasons. You’re going in because everyone else is talking about that specific asset class or that specific strategy. 

So, what I’ve actually now told myself is, again now in December when things quiet down, I do want to spend some time just understanding the resource market – in terms of where that’s going. Whether it’s going to persist. There are also talks about how the central banks are concerned about the policy stance of the US trying to undervalue the US currency in order to compensate for the tariffs around trade. Which means that central bankers will buy more gold, so the gold bulls are saying this thing is going to continue. 

I want to spend some time just getting my own understanding and my own position in terms of: is this an asset class that I want to actually take a strategic weight in from my equity exposure? Maybe a 1% or 2% of my total portfolio. So those are the things I’m weighing up at the moment. 

The Finance Ghost: Yeah, that’s the topic on everyone’s lips at the moment. And at the time we are recording this (it’ll go out a couple of weeks later) we’ve actually finally seen gold roll over a bit. It’s dipped back below $4,000 an ounce. So, I had a look, the Satrix RESI ETF, which is a really nice pure way… it’s not a gold ETF, it’s the resources index, but because of the shape of the South African market there’s a lot of gold in there. 

And that ETF is up year-to-date 87%, at time of recording, but it has come off pretty hard from the 52-week high. Let me actually just work it out quickly because it’s fun. You see, these are the dorky things I do, is look at things like, “Oh, how far off the high is it?” Anyway, it’s over 18% off, roughly, from recent highs. That’s a nice little healthy correction there. 

And I am actually looking at doing a bit of rotation in my tax-free savings account, so the RESI is kind of on my shopping list, but I’d like it to come down more.

I think there are a lot of good reasons why gold long-term remains solid. I mean, you’ve raised them there: it’s the state of play in central bank policies, etcetera, etcetera. But, things do correct. Things get hot, they extend, then they come back – It’s how markets work. If you can kind of time those pullbacks nicely…

Duma Mxenge: It’s all about valuations, so you want to get in at the right time. Even from a tariff perspective, the US obviously has slapped tariffs on different sectors of the market. 

And the only market that actually hasn’t been taxed or given the tariff is the precious metals, because the US wants them. So that’s at zero, which means that there’ll still be demand for those specific commodities, as well as that specific sector, so that sector will probably continue to do well.

But you want to get in at the right time. You don’t want to overpay for a sector or a company. 

The Finance Ghost: Yeah, it doesn’t matter what you buy – if you overpay, it’s going to be trouble.

And the other thing in the RESI is to look at the platinum group metals miners – the PGMs are on a charge at the moment. The narrative coming out of all of the international car companies is that they assumed too much around electric vehicles. The Europeans just keep pushing this narrative and the rest of the world is really not as interested in EVs as they are. So that’s good for PGMs, because that’s the primary use for them. It’s good for the South African economy, thank goodness. We’ll take the wins where we can get them. We need the money to be flowing into Rustenburg. 

Duma Mxenge: Like the greylisting – we’ll take it. We need all the good news. 

The Finance Ghost: No, we do. We absolutely need the good news. We do a lot of things wrong and we make things harder for ourselves. It’s like Bafana qualifying. We made it as hard as possible. That’s what we do with our economy as well!

Anyway, biggest disappointments my side, Duma – I’d love to be able to tell you that it’s only things I missed. Unfortunately, it’s things I own, so that’s a bit sad, but it is what it is.

I wish I’d sold Cashbuild at the end of last year, because I bought it at the right time last year and then rode that kind of post-GNU exuberance. It got very silly. And I should have let it go, but I was like, “No, I don’t want to let it go. It’s a long-term thing.” Anyway, it’s ridden all the way back down. So, I recently added some more – because Cashbuild now is a better company than it was a year ago when I bought it and it’s at roughly the same price. 

So, fair enough, it’s still in the long-term bucket. I still like the underlying story around them just ticking things up over time, interest rates hopefully will come down. It’s just some exposure that I do want in my portfolio. That’s a small position, though. And there it’s just profits that I missed out on taking, rather than in the red. 

There are places where I am in the red. Lululemon, by far the worst one in the US market – that has turned into a lemon. It’s not great. Apparel brands, hey. You invest in apparel and FMCG at own risk. You really do. The biggest brands in the world can turn you into a pauper or a king, and it’s hard sometimes to know which way it’s going to be. 

But I can tell you the one that’s upset me – like, sincerely irritated me – is Accenture. And that’s because my theory was, “Okay, Accenture is a management consultancy, but they’re very focused on a lot of AI stuff, or just tech stuff. So, in a world where corporates, governments, etcetera, are trying to understand AI, surely Accenture is in the pound seats? Surely they’ll do well?”

And I was right (kind of) in terms of: yes, they have got demand for their services. But the thing I missed – and that they clearly also missed – was along came Donald Trump, and there was a changing of the guard in terms of the US. There was DOGE, there was cost cutting. And the US government is a huge client for Accenture, and they were totally on the wrong side of that. Got absolutely hammered by that. To the point where, in Accenture’s last earnings transcript, they’re talking about doing a partnership with Palantir (because obviously Palantir is so close to the Trump administration). 

So, yeah, you know. It feels like we’re talking about an African government story, right? It’s a big changing of procurement, then one company gets thrown out and the other one who knows them too well is in. But that is the United States government, ladies and gentlemen. 

Duma Mxenge: No, that is true.

The Finance Ghost: The US is just South Africa that went to private school.

Duma Mxenge: It actually reminds me – remember way back we had Gijima Technology, when they were actually listed? 

The Finance Ghost: Yes!

Duma Mxenge: And that was exactly the same thing. I mean, you were banking on the government contracts, essentially. 

The Finance Ghost: Yeah, and that was my own fault – I didn’t realise just how much exposure inside Accenture was US-government-focused. So, I’ve bought the dip there a couple of times and we’ll see what happens long-term. 

Look, if you’re going to play in single stocks, you’re going to get some winners and you’re going to get some losers. That’s a reality that I’m comfortable with. And anyone who plays in single stocks needs to be comfortable with that. 

If you’re going to do long-term ETFs, the market long-term, on average, goes up. That’s the beauty of it, right? That’s kind of the point. 

Duma Mxenge: Yeah – thanks to diversification.

But since you’re talking about the US, I’m interested to get your take. The big driver in terms of performance at the moment is anything that is AI or AI-related. All those stocks have done exceptionally well. Are you concerned that that price has not been backed up by the earnings? Do you think those stocks are overheated?

The Finance Ghost: So, I recently became more concerned with some of these deals that NVIDIA has done where – it’s like that Spider-Man meme, you know? With all the Spider-Mans looking and pointing at each other. It’s like, “Oh, wait. I’m buying from you and you’re buying from me, but I’ll invest in you and I’ll make your market cap bigger.” It’s very dicey. That is classic top-of-the-cycle behaviour. 

The other thing I’m worried about is that I hear really good stories about AI implementations out there actually doing the things, and then I’ll have my own experiences with Copilot where I’m just like, “This is nonsense. Just absolute rubbish.”

Literally this week, I asked Copilot to go and download – because I couldn’t get the Netflix investor relations website to work – for some reason it wasn’t working properly for me. In desperation, I thought, “Okay, wait. Maybe AI can go and fetch this PDF for me, so I don’t have to go hunting for it on the SEC site.” I ask Copilot, “Can you get this PDF?” It comes back with, “Oh, these are the PDFs. Would you like me to download it?” Great. “Yes! I’d love you to download it.” It comes back, “You can download it from this link.”

Thank you, Copilot, for completely wasting my time (and some electricity and some water along the way). I’ve had a few of these experiences with Copilot. 

Duma Mxenge: Yeah, you need to have patience. But the Copilot feature – it’s actually quite smart of Microsoft to do that, because that’s like the easiest way to get into the enterprise space. I couldn’t see a world where ChatGPT would have been able to convince big corporates to actually adopt it. 

The Finance Ghost: It’s exactly what Microsoft did with Teams, right? And just smashed Zoom. Product bundling is their game. And that “kill-off-the-competition” ethos at Microsoft was built by Bill Gates from the start. It really was. It was literally, “How do we just crush everyone else through product bundling as far as we can do it?” So… 

Duma Mxenge: Yeah, it’s exceptional. 

The Finance Ghost: …maybe, to give a better answer to the question: my AI position in my tech positioning is very focused on the market leaders. I’m not buying any of the super-frothy, all-of-a-sudden-everyone-wants-it kind of names.

Oracle comes to mind. I mean, that share price went parabolic. I would have loved to have owned it before that. I didn’t. I’m definitely not chasing it now, because if there’s a rug pull in AI, those are the share prices that will lose 60% – 70% of their value. 

Whereas, Microsoft was a great business before AI. It will still be a great business in whatever version of AI survives. Hence, that’s my biggest individual position – Microsoft. For exactly that reason. 

Duma Mxenge: I hear you. I’m more orientated to the emerging market in terms of things that I’m looking at. Have you taken a look at China? It’s an interesting market because there are two sets of stories: The tech is doing well, but the local demand is quite challenging. There’s a lot of deflation that’s happening in that market. And they’ve tried the stimulus – it hasn’t worked. People are not buying, which is like the weirdest thing ever. Everyone’s sitting on cash!

The Finance Ghost: It is fascinating, right? So, I have a small exposure to a China ETF, but it is pretty modest. I do have a decent-sized position in Prosus, which obviously has look-through to Tencent. So, you’ve got to take that into account as part of your China exposure. And then I also look at the extent to which I have consumer brands, because there, China is a big story. That’s a really important story.

So, China continues to fascinate me, bluntly. It really is interesting. 

It’s true for all the emerging markets. There’s a lot of good stuff happening in emerging markets that is actually worth looking at, because where the win is not really happening – if you look at Europe, for all of the noise around, “This is Europe’s time to shine, and now they have to really come into their own.” In reality… 

Duma Mxenge: The numbers have disappointed. 

The Finance Ghost: Yeah, “European innovation” is basically an oxymoron. There’s really not much of it. Their automotive sector has been murdered by the Chinese. They’ve got two decent-sized tech companies, one of which is ASML (which is in the chip manufacturing space, so obviously look-through into AI – that’s done well this year). The other is SAP, which has been very sideways. It’s software as a service (SaaS), you know? How exciting. And even the US SaaS names are getting hurt, actually. Adobe, Salesforce – they’ve both had horrible years.

So, it is interesting. I think it’s great to be in South Africa this year, and that’s why I was saying: your JSE Satrix Top 40 ETF is fantastic. That’s the one you wanted this year, because you’ve had the diversified exposure. Well, to a point. Obviously, there’s been one or two big drivers of that performance. 

Duma Mxenge: Of course. 

The Finance Ghost: It’s never the case that all 40 companies do well. What’s happened this year is that a big portion of the market has done really well, and that’s worked out.

I guess the point is: diversification remains your friend – a theme that’s come through on many of my podcasts with Satrix team members. And that’s because it’s true – you’ve got to try and spread your money. You can look like a real hero one year in a highly concentrated portfolio, but at some point, you are also going to get hurt. This is just how markets work. 

Duma Mxenge: Yeah, it is what it is. But that being said, I’m also super interested, when I actually sit down at the end of the year and look at opportunities and try and see if I want to rotate my portfolio, I hope I still maintain the same buckets – in looking at the emerging markets, seeing if there are opportunities between China and India.

India is also a place that’s looking quite interesting. But, performance hasn’t been great, it has gone sideways somewhat.

The Finance Ghost: It’s just been very, very overvalued.

Duma Mxenge: It could be a buying opportunity, so I still want to see that. 

When it comes to SA: If you look at SA Inc. stocks, they haven’t really done exceptionally well. It’s been primarily your telcos, your resource companies, as well as Naspers and Prosus. That’s pretty much what has been driving the market in South Africa.

But we really need the Government of National Unity (GNU) to actually come to the fore. I’m also hoping this greylisting will help somewhat. At least now, we’re back, we’re getting foreigners buying bonds now. That’s quite positive.

So, I don’t know. We have to be optimistic, but at the same time, you don’t want to be buying these opportunities at overvalued prices. 

The Finance Ghost: Absolutely. That was one of the things I wanted to ask you. Where in the market are you seeing some interesting opportunities at the moment? And I think you’ve touched on it there, which is that SA Inc. has largely been left behind by the rally. That Top 40 performance is masking a very bleak year-to-date on SA Inc. – less bleak if you look versus the period before elections last year, because what happened was you had this huge run-up to the end of 2024, and then we came into 2025 with a lot of promises in those stocks that then didn’t materialise. Plus at a macro level, tariffs! This then really hit global markets in certain areas pretty badly, emerging markets outside of stuff like gold. A lot of those companies were sold off. 

Cashbuild is a perfect example. Cashbuild’s business, like I mentioned earlier, is better now than it was a year ago, but the share price is exactly where it was. And in the meantime, it went bananas purely based on promises. 

So, a lot of SA Inc. stuff is getting ignored. I recently bought into City Lodge, because… 

Duma Mxenge: Interesting!

The Finance Ghost: …yeah, because this is how the South African market behaves: they release results, the results for the year are kind of okay, but there’s this nugget in there about how it’s picked up so much in the couple of months since financial year-end. Like, materially picked up. You think to yourself, “Okay, that’s… pretty interesting.” And the share price just doesn’t respond. It just goes sideways, flatlines, beeep – it’s like watching Grey’s Anatomy. It’s just horrible. 

And you’re like, “Hang on, this is an opportunity.” Because if that kind of narrative goes out on a US stock, the market goes nuts. There are 10 interviews on CNBC and the share price is up 30% because someone said the word “AI” in a transcript. So, it’s frustrating. You have to wait for the value catalysts in South Africa, you have to be patient. But, at least you know you’re buying something at a rational valuation.

Generally speaking, I have an offshore bias, but I can’t bring myself to go and throw money at some of these valuations we’re seeing in places like the US. 

Duma Mxenge: No, it’s astronomical. 

The Finance Ghost: And the rand is actually doing pretty well. That’s the other thing you’ve got to remember, if you go and take money out. If you go into dollars and buy an overpriced thing in dollars – the rand keeps getting better, the “dollar thing” goes sideways or drops, you’re going to be pretty grumpy if you compare that to the Top 40 ETF you could have bought. So, it is nice to see the local stuff looking relatively more interesting now.

And that, for me, is what the story of the next year will be (I’m hoping, at least). Some of the JSE, like the really good mid-caps and some of the small-caps – and there’s a lot of rubbish on the JSE, there really are a lot of companies that are underperforming – but there are some goodies, and those are worth finding. So maybe that should be your December reading?

Duma Mxenge: That is my December reading. It sounds like one has to be contrarian.

I think, with the current holdings that I have, I’m not missing out in terms of what’s happening in the market. I will get that momentum, I do have exposure to all these themes that we’ve spoken about. 

But, for where I think the opportunity sits, it’s these unloved sectors or regions that one has to do a bit of homework and start putting a position there. It will turn around eventually. So that’s the work I want to do, come my December. 

The Finance Ghost: Absolutely. And that’s where stock picking can be really fun. It’s so important to have those ETF building blocks, make sure you’ve got your broad market exposure – that’s the truth. But a little bit of stock picking on top can be a really fun way to engage in the markets. 

I’ll give you another example, Duma. Remember a little company called EOH? Now it’s called iOCO. It’s been fixed up. It’s a lot less dodgy than it ever was, that’s for sure. It’s solid now, nevermind “a lot less dodgy” – it’s been fixed.

And kudos to them – share price, 74% up year to date. They released results in the week of us recording this, and they put out guidance for free cash flow next year that suggests that they’re on a free cash flow yield of like 14% in rands. That’s really solid. 

Duma Mxenge: Sho, where would you get that?

The Finance Ghost: Right? So, go and read the stuff. That’s the thing. If you want to track these kinds of JSE mid-caps: watch when the stuff comes out on SENS, go read it, go read the source materials (certainly read Ghost Mail), read anywhere else. Go and do the research, because it’s really fun and it can really pay off. 

I’m hoping that in the next year, we’ll start to see some more catalysts for a lot of these JSE companies that deserve a break. A lot of them don’t, but some of them really do. 

Duma Mxenge: The nice thing is we do have professional analysts that are covering these markets. So, that valuation will definitely… there will be an unlock eventually, which is the beautiful thing about our market. It’s not just largely driven by individuals, we also have institutional buyers participating as well. 

The Finance Ghost: Absolutely. That seems to be where some of the opportunities are at the moment.

So, Duma, we’ve covered off a lot of the discussions about what we wanted to chat about in the markets this year – stuff that’s gone well, stuff that’s maybe not gone so well. It’s been really interesting, thank you.

Something that you wanted to raise – which is obviously coming from discussions that you’ve been having in the market with clients, with retail investors, and presumably with business owners (because that’s what this is themed around) – is the difficulty of managing a personal finance budget versus a business budget. It’s really interesting.

So, let’s dig into that. What are some of the things that have come up in conversations for you? Why do you think this is relevant? 

Duma Mxenge: Thanks, Ghost, for raising that. So we’ve been engaging clients, specifically entrepreneurs, small business owners, guys that are doing side-hustles, also the creator economy – there’s a big focus within our business to also look at that. And what we’ve seen is that there’s been a huge focus on personal finance. But what we’ve never really spent a lot of time on is talking about, “Okay, you’ve got your personal finance, but how do you also think about it in terms of your business? Can you use the same tools to assist your business in one way or another?” 

And I guess the first starting point, what actually surprised me (I don’t know if that’s the case with you) – a lot of business owners, especially if it’s a one-man shop, tend to mix their personal bank account with their business account. It’s like one and the same thing. So, when we start talking about personal finance/investments, it’s like they can’t actually untangle the two. 

So I first want to just get a sense from you. Have you built your business distinctively to say “this is my personal account” versus the business account? 

The Finance Ghost: Yeah, that’s been an interesting journey for me. I registered The Finance Ghost as a separate business, basically from the start, because I wanted it to be distinct. But I think, even if you take that route (and you have a separate bank account, the separate legal entity, the whole story), you still have to be very careful when you start a business that you, number one, keep the business income as clean as possible. Take advantage of the things you can do, but you’ve got to be very careful. Don’t put silly personal things through your business. Not least of all because it can get you into trouble down the line with SARS, but it also just makes the whole business hard to understand. So, commingling expenses is hard. 

The other trick (and this is something you really have to get used to) is when you’re earning a salary, the number you see in your account is after tax, after deductions, usually after retirement savings – it’s after all of these things, right? When you’re running your own business, the number you see is the number before you pay VAT, before you pay income tax, before you pay anything else. It’s this much higher number, but it’s not all yours. 

And this takes a little bit of adaptation. You quote a client something or whatever and it’s this number, and it’s like, “Wow, that’s great!” And then you have to remember, “Yeah, well, it’s this much for that, and that much for that.” You’ve got to cut the pie… 

Duma Mxenge: Correct. 

The Finance Ghost: …into a lot of slices, so that’s an important thing to remember. And maybe the other thing that I’ve applied which I’ve found really important is I pay myself a salary out of the business. I pay myself the same salary every month, and I’ve set that salary significantly lower than what the business earns on average. 

The reason for that is it forces me to live to that salary. And I’ve been really lucky in this journey, it’s doing well and that’s great, so I can do it. But it kind of creates a buffer, because I think it’s far too easy – specifically in a small business – to say, “Oh, you know, things are going better. Great. Let me just adjust my lifestyle up.” 

Stuff goes away. It comes, it goes. You have good months, you have great months, you can have a relatively bad month. And just dealing with that variability in income requires a huge amount of discipline, because it’s not a reality when you have a salary. You’re getting the same salary every month, and you do with it what you do. 

I will say this, though: as a small business, it actually creates a lot of discipline. Whereas I think people, when they earn salaries, just assume that salary is going to be there forever. And it’s just not actually real life. Retrenchments do happen, jobs do get disrupted. We are in an AI era. I actually talked about this with Lauren a couple of Satrix podcasts ago and this point kind of came up as well, which is really interesting. 

So, I think there’s an element of discipline as a small business owner that you can bring in, that actually puts you above where salaried employees often behave in terms of discipline. 

Duma Mxenge: Just on that, I think you raise a very good point around salary and how you basically pitch the salary. Based on the design and how you’re thinking about it, it sounds like (and I want you to correct me or not, because then it gets into this whole passive income discussion) you’ve basically done the budgeting based on, let’s say, your personal expenses being covered. But is there also a portion that’s set aside, for example, for investment or buying a tax-free savings or retirement annuity and the likes within that ‘salarised’ amount that you’ve set aside from your business? Or, which is what we are seeing, mostly, is that a lot of business owners see their business as their investment and their only investment. 

The Finance Ghost: Sho, anyone who’s assuming that their business is their retirement plan has never seen corporate failures, deals go wrong – I’ve unfortunately seen a lot of that, and I know how hard it is to sell a small business. 

My strong recommendation to anyone with a small business would be: do not rely on that small business as your retirement savings and everything else, because then all your eggs are truly in one basket. That thing is your income, it’s supposedly your retirement – it’s just not right. I’d strongly recommend not doing that. 

In the amount that I pay myself as a salary, I leave an allowance for what would be the correct percentage excess, over and above my monthly expenses, to be invested. So, the investing is happening even out of my salary. Then, I come from an investment banking background, so I love my children a lot, but I love bonuses too! And so what I do is every year I pay myself a bonus based on what I can, and then what I do with that is what I do with that. That’s kind of the way I’ve structured it. I’ve almost tried to emulate some of my old investment banking life with that behaviour. It just works well for me. 

But, I would certainly say: business owners, you’ve got to be diversifying your wealth. You really, really do. It’s almost more important, when you’re a business owner. You definitely cannot be relying on this one thing. You are then in a hyper, hyper concentrated portfolio in a small business that relies on you. Like that’s… yeah, that’s way past my risk tolerance. 

Duma Mxenge: Thanks for saying that, Ghost. That’s essentially what we’ve been telling clients. And as I said, we’ve gone on and on about ETFs (how simple they are, how easy to understand), but what’s been quite surprising with the engagement is that a lot of business owners, obviously, do appreciate risk. When you’re running your own business, you feel like you’re in control. So when they have that excess amount of money, they tend to put it in cash, as if it’s an emergency fund. And we’re like, “But, you should be taking more risk. This is towards retirement.” 

I think guys view their own personal wealth differently in terms of how they’re running their business. It’s been quite difficult and challenging to get them to understand that actually you need to start thinking a lot deeper and more seriously in terms of how you build wealth alongside your business in a passive income strategy. 

The Finance Ghost: And it’s funny, right? Because any business owner is a risk-taker by design. It’s a guarantee: you are a business owner, hence you are a risk-taker. But then, you really do get two types of entrepreneurs like this. I have friends who are entrepreneurs who are the worst kind in the market – where it’s basically gambling, essentially. It’s like, “What’s hot? Let me have a punt. Okay, cool.” They’re almost tickling their need to gamble, a little bit.

And, it’s certainly better to gamble on stocks than to go and do sports betting (which is obviously all over the news at the moment). But better than that, even, is to go and actually invest. 

And it’s interesting how you then get the other type of entrepreneur who just sits in cash, basically. It’s almost like they are so scared that something goes wrong with their business that they almost refuse to take any risk of any other kind, which is also not right.

It’s all this behavioural finance stuff. And I can confirm, the journey as an entrepreneur – it is hard. You’ve got to be tough. You always feel like you’re one phone call away from some or other kind of disaster. That’s part of what makes me very hesitant to buy a house, I suppose. 

If I could say what my little personal finance “ick” is, coming from a business owner, is that I am very nervous to take on a bond. Because it just feels like many millions owed to a bank and, yeah, it scares me, you know? I’d much rather rent, invest the excess, and be liquid. Liquidity is your friend. It really, really is. No one ever got anything repossessed because they were “too liquid”. That I can tell you. 

Duma Mxenge: It’s usually the other way around! I think where we started off, I was talking about the buckets, right? And I think, even for business owners or people running their own business, the biggest feedback we get is that they’re too busy. They don’t have time to do this. So that’s why, most of the time, the investment is actually sitting in cash. 

And I think it’s important, especially at the end of the year, that one just takes time out to look at their financial situation. Think about the buckets, make a decision, put down a debit order, forget about it, revisit again in the new year. That’s the approach one can take. And then during the year, you’re busy trying to put out fires, growing the business, finding clients, etcetera, etcetera. 

I think for them, the difficulty of trying to be active in the market – they just don’t have the time to do that. But I think with the products we’ve got from an ETF perspective, they’re easy to understand. You can just sit down for a week, maybe a week-and-a-half, in any given year and just plan your life accordingly leading up to the new year. 

The Finance Ghost: So yeah, the encouragement to business owners is: Just keep building that diversification.

And maybe a nice way for those business owners to think about it is that we’re so used to, as business owners, getting an income. You’re chasing income all the time, whether it’s sending out an invoice or whatever it is.  But the best kind of income, and this is really hard for business owners, is passive income. While you are sleeping, when you are exhausted after a hard night (or a hard day, rather), you want your money to be working for you – and ETFs can do that. Because they pay dividends, and you can pick ETFs that have a bigger dividend yield. 

So, I know that’s something else that’s close to your heart: ETFs as a tool for passive income. Maybe walk us through that, so that listeners can understand: what does that opportunity actually look like? What do you mean when you say “passive income” and using ETFs to achieve that? 

Duma Mxenge: So, just going back to where we started, every business owner, in terms of how they need to think about their investments specifically, is in those different buckets (the short term, the medium term, as well as the long term), and be very clear in terms of what goals you’re trying to achieve. 

And the beautiful thing about all these ETF products is that they’re very easy to understand. You can make a decision on any given year. Let’s say December is your time where you just sit down and say, “Okay, I just want to look at my plan and plan accordingly.” And then during the course of the year, depending on what strategy you invested in (for example, dividend yield – there you get a nice dividend payout), the money works for you whilst you’re still working on your business. So, it’s something that you don’t need to check during the year or be concerned about. You know that in the background, your money is growing, dividends are being paid out. You can decide whether you want to actually cash out or reinvest. 

But we do try and encourage clients to do two things: (1) to reinvest their dividends, and (2) to make sure that they actually set up a debit order account and get into that consistency of just making sure that their future is also well-handled. 

Over and above that, of course, we’re assuming that all business owners will be successful, and they’ll also be successful in terms of selling their business. But you have to hedge your bets. At least then you know, whilst you’re running your business, you’ve got a pot of money that’s set aside in any eventuality. 

The Finance Ghost: Yeah, I would agree with that. And it really is great to build up that working capital. Build it up in your business, get it into a proper interest-paying account, earn the interest in the business, do that in your personal life, build up those ETFs, earn the dividends.

That is how you start to turn life from hard mode to easier mode. I don’t know about easy mode – I’m hoping that comes somewhere down the line. But right now, I think the most we can hope for is easier mode. So, yeah, lots of tools to do that. 

Duma, as always, we’ve had such a fun chat about not just the markets, but also just adulting and making progress in this life. And this time we spoke about business owners and how they should think about the world. I would really encourage listeners to go back to the one we did in January, if you’re keen to hear about the rent-versus-buy argument – I think everything we’ve spoken about there is still valid. 

So, yeah, it’s just always fun doing these with you, Duma, thank you so much. I look forward to the next one. I guess it’ll probably be early next year, and we can talk about your 2026 plan. So, thank you, as ever, for your time. And all the best with the December research. I’ll be interested to hear what you dig up. 

Duma Mxenge: Thank you, Ghost. Yeah, you can hold me to it. We should have an interesting chat in the new year. 

The Finance Ghost: Cool. Ciao.

Disclaimer:

Satrix Investments (Pty) Ltd & Satrix Managers (RF) (Pty) Ltd is an authorised financial services provider. The information does not constitute advice as contemplated in FAIS. Use or rely on this information at your own risk. Consult your Financial Adviser before making an investment decision. While every effort has been made to ensure the reasonableness and accuracy of the information contained in this document (“the information”), the FSP’s, its shareholders, subsidiaries, clients, agents, officers and employees do not make any representations or warranties regarding the accuracy or suitability of the information and shall not be held responsible and disclaims all liability for any loss, liability and damage whatsoever suffered as a result of or which may be attributable, directly or indirectly, to any use of or reliance upon the information. For more information, visit https://satrix.co.za/products

Verified by MonsterInsights