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How sweatpants became a status symbol

Athleisure might look like a comfort trend, but it’s really just a modern expression of something much deeper: the evolution of leisure, status, and how we choose to use our time.

Ah, sweatpants. How we love thee. Is there anything better on a cold and dreary winter’s morning than passing over your jeans or suit pants in favour of something soft (and preferably fleece-lined)?

Just a few decades ago, a tracksuit was something you would only wear out of your house on casual Friday, or perhaps for a quick trip to the shops. But today, thanks to the rise of athleisure, sweatpants, hoodies and sneakers are welcome almost anywhere. What looks like something casual is really the latest version of a story that began when work first stopped filling every available hour of the day, and people were left with something unfamiliar to manage:

Time.

A moment before time

For most of human history, time didn’t come in neat, measurable blocks that could be traded, saved, or spent according to personal preference. Particularly in agrarian (aka farming) societies, where daily life followed the rhythms of seasons, weather patterns, and the unpredictable demands of land and livestock, the idea of “work-life balance” didn’t really exist.

Work bled into everything else, stretching across daylight hours and often beyond, leaving little room for anything that could be considered optional.

Leisure? To the working class of the 19th century, that was a foreign concept.

The Industrial Revolution (specifically the second one, which took place between 1870 and 1914) changed this dynamic in ways that extended well beyond machinery and production. As machines started replacing elements of human labour, they introduced a level of structure into daily life that redefined how people experienced time.

Imagine it: before, you were a farmworker, toiling away outside. You didn’t measure time per se, but you had an idea of where you were in the day based on the position of the sun and the shadows on the ground. Your work was marked by seasons, not hours. Then factory work came along, ushered you indoors and brought with it shifts, fixed hours, and clearer boundaries between labour and non-labour. 

All of this change meant that, for the first time, large numbers of people had predictable stretches of the day that were not already claimed by work. What’s more, because machines sped up the process of human labour, there were now whole days that didn’t need to be devoted to work, that could instead be dedicated to rest.

Enter: the weekend

At the same time, mass production was reshaping the economic landscape by making everyday goods more affordable and widely available, reducing the cost of clothing, tools, and household items that had previously been expensive or labour-intensive to produce. This shift meant that wages, while still modest by modern standards, could stretch a little further than they had before.

Things became accessible. And with that accessibility came the possibility of saving small amounts of money, which, when combined with newly available free time, created the conditions for a different kind of life to emerge.

So what did people do with this combination of time and money?

They began to organise their free hours into activities that were structured, social, and increasingly visible, moving beyond rest into participation in things that could be shared and repeated. Parks became gathering spaces. Clubs formed around common interests. Informal games evolved into organised sports with rules, teams, and spectators.

Life is for living

This was the start of leisure as we understand it today. And once leisure takes shape, it becomes something that can be recognised, compared, and eventually used to signal something about the people engaging in it.

Sport, in particular, became one of the clearest expressions of this shift in priorities, transforming from loosely organised pastimes into formalised systems that carried meaning beyond the activity itself. Football, cricket, and rugby developed into institutions with their own audiences, creating a shared language that people could understand whether they were playing or watching. Soon, towns were competing against each other in organised matches, races and games. The first hints of national pride were in the air. 

At first, the distinction between workwear and leisurewear was driven by practical concerns, as different activities (like playing tennis or riding a bicycle) required garments that allowed for movement and comfort. But that practical distinction quickly took on additional meaning. Because the moment you have clothing that is specific to an activity, you also have a visible marker that separates that activity from the rest of your life.

Time for a wardrobe change

Changing from daywear into sportswear signalled that you had stepped into a different mode, one that was defined less by necessity and more by choice. This is where leisure begins to function as a form of status.

In earlier periods, status had been tied closely to land ownership, property, and the ability to maintain things that served no immediate productive purpose (like the lawns that I mentioned in last week’s article). By the early 20th century, however, there was a gradual shift towards how time was used as an indicator of position. Being able to spend time on activities that did not directly generate income suggested a level of security and control.

Leisure, in other words, became a status symbol. Not as overt a display of wealth as gold or diamonds, but a consistent one, embedded in daily life and reinforced through the activities people chose to engage in and the way they presented themselves while doing so.

Sport made that signal visible in a way that few other activities could. To play a game or attend one required time that could not be easily justified in purely economic terms, which is precisely why it mattered – it demonstrated that your life was not entirely dictated by work. There was space for something unnecessary, something frivolous and fun, something chosen rather than required.

The clothing associated with these sports – designed for movement, less restrictive, more comfortable – began to carry that meaning beyond the field or court where it was originally used.

Looking the part

By the mid-20th century, sportswear had already begun slipping its original boundaries, moving off the field and into everyday life. Tennis played a particularly influential role in that shift because it carried something most other sports did not: a built-in aesthetic tied to leisure, class, and aspiration. What started on manicured lawns and private clubs didn’t stay there for long.

By the 1920s and 1930s, tennis style had already begun feeding directly into mainstream fashion, shaping what would later be recognised as “preppy” dress: polos, pleated skirts, cardigans, crisp whites. These were no longer costumes of exertion. They were uniforms of a lifestyle

Brands like Lacoste built entire identities around this crossover, turning tennis garments into everyday staples.

Tracksuits and sneakers soon followed. Entire wardrobes began to borrow from sport without requiring participation. By the time the term “athleisure” (athletic+leisure) emerged decades later, the behaviour was already familiar: clothing that looks athletic, carries the codes of performance, but is worn in entirely non-athletic contexts.

What mattered was no longer the activity itself, but what the aesthetic implied about the person wearing it – their time, their mobility, their proximity to health, leisure, and choice. Tennis didn’t create that shift on its own, but it gave it a visual language early on. And once that language existed, the rest of fashion learned how to speak it – and we still speak it today.

In the 1980s, we expected someone at the head of a business to wear a suit and tie. This was the uniform of success that we knew and understood. Today, a CEO showing up to a staff meeting wearing tracksuit pants and sneakers is communicating a similar message of success, probably without really even thinking about it.

That message says: I could go for a run. I’m so successful that I don’t need to be chained to my desk at all hours. I can afford the time.

About the author: Dominique Olivier

Dominique Olivier is the founder of human.writer, where she uses her love of storytelling and ideation to help brands solve problems.

Her first book, Lessons from Loss, has been published by Penguin Random House.

She is a weekly columnist in Ghost Mail and collaborates with The Finance Ghost on Ghost Mail Weekender, a Sunday publication designed to help you be more interesting.

Dominique can be reached on LinkedIn here.

Ghost Bites (Equites Property Fund | KAL Group | Karooooo | NEPI Rockcastle | Reunert | Tharisa)

In this edition of Ghost Bites:

  • Equites Property Fund and NEPI Rockcastle are good reminders of the strength of REITs
  • KAL Group is one of the last “cheap” South African assets
  • Karooooo upset the market with its margins this year, but they are playing the long game
  • Reunert has been dragged down by its cables business
  • Tharisa’s earnings have skyrocketed
  • …and there are many, many Nibbles!

Equites Property Fund is delivering mid-single digit growth (JSE: EQU)

This at least gives investors the inflation protection that the REIT sector is known for

Equites Property Fund has released results for the year ended 28 February 2026. Regular readers will know that this fund is in the process of selling its UK assets and bringing the capital home to South Africa.

Distribution per share growth for this period was 5.3% (in line with guidance). This gives investors a reasonable return relative to inflation, although there are REITs that are delivering more at the moment.

The loan-to-value ratio of 35.1% tells us that they have a solid balance sheet, which is important as they have significant ambitions for their development pipeline in South Africa.

With the UK assets being recycled, the South African pipeline will hopefully not require equity capital raises that are dilutive to shareholders. The REIT sector can be a very frustrating place for retail shareholders during periods of capital raising, as we don’t get phoned up bookrunners to buy shares at a discount to the spot price.

The forecast growth in the distribution per share for FY27 is between 5% and 7%. This is an encouraging uplift, informed by the high visibility that Equites enjoys on its earnings thanks to long-term leases.

Ghost Bite: I continue to beat the drum that REITs are a better long-term investment than buy-to-let residential properties.


KAL Group: one of the last “cheap” local assets (JSE: KAL)

Will fuel volumes ruin the party in the second half?

KAL Group’s results for the six months to March 2026 tell a promising story. Revenue was up by 5%, EBITDA climbed by 7.7% and HEPS was 12.5% higher. As the icing on the cake, recurring HEPS increased by 15.1%!

That’s the shape that you want to see on an income statement.

Although net cash from operating activities only increased by 3.9%, the interim dividend per share was up by 25%. The improvement in the balance sheet (net interest bearing debt to equity reduced from 48.4% to 32.9%) would’ve helped justify this decision.

There is an important nuance that needs to be considered. The company has highlighted “exponential” fuel demand in March ahead of expected fuel price increases in April. This helped drive an increase in fuel volumes of 6.7% for the period. In turn, this delivered a whopping 49.2% profit before tax growth in PEG, KAL’s forecourt business.

My concern is that much higher fuel prices will undoubtedly impact volumes. Management’s outlook statement recognises this risk, but they remain bullish about the second half of the year and the longer term prospects.

The other key exposure is of course the broader agriculture business. KAL has specialist retail businesses that depend on the spending power and level of investment by farmers in their crops. It’s almost impossible to forecast this stuff with any accuracy, but one thing to note is that the fuel price spike will impact inflation throughout the value chain.

Ghost Bite: On a single-digit Price/Earnings multiple, KAL Group remains one of the “cheap” assets on the JSE. The share price increase of 13% over the past year is a great return when you add on the dividend as well. Perhaps management’s commitment to focusing on metrics like return on invested capital (ROIC) will help catalyse a higher multiple. But what do you think?


Karooooo’s margins have upset the market (JSE: KRO)

This management team is playing the long game

Karooooo’s results for the quarter ended February 2026 mark the end of the financial year for the group. This means that we must consider fourth quarter and full year results separately.

Starting with the quarter, we find growth in Cartrack subscribers of 16%. Encouragingly, net Cartrack subscriber additions grew by 19% (a measure of the rate of increase, not the size of the total user base). This represents the most subscribers that they’ve ever added in a fourth quarter period.

Subscription revenue for the quarter increased by 18% to R1.28 billion. The logistics side of the business (which they call Delivery-as-a-Service, or DaaS) jumped by 32% to R145 million. It’s much smaller than subscriptions, but becoming more meaningful every day.

But now we reach the bad news: operating profit margin has declined dramatically from 34% to 25%. This is because operating profit at group level has dropped by 12%!

For the full year, Cartrack subscriber numbers increased by 16%, subscription revenue was up 19% and DaaS revenue increased 29%. Operating profit only increased by 8%, as the full year margin declined from 31% to 28% – dragged down by the final quarter of the year.

What has happened here? Well, the same thing that we often see at Karooooo – a front-loading of sales and marketing costs. The company needs to build up its sales infrastructure in order to drive the next wave of growth. In a period of heavy investment, this puts the squeeze on margins.

In 2027, they will reduce the rate of headcount growth as they drive efficiencies and AI adoption.

Guidance for FY27 is subscription revenue growth of between 18% and 24%, with operating margin between 27% and 30%. This suggests a modest uptick in margin at the mid-point of that guidance. Combined with such strong expected revenue growth, that would imply a potentially solid outcome for investors in FY27.

The market isn’t famous for being patient though, with the share price down nearly 10% on the day!

Ghost Bite: Karooooo has been an absolute winner for me over the past few years. My only regret is that I didn’t buy more along the way. My temptation to buy more is increasing, particularly given this share price weakness:


NEPI Rockcastle’s trading metrics look solid (JSE: NRP)

But this isn’t translating into high earnings per share growth

Iconic Eastern European property fund NEPI Rockcastle has updated the market on the first quarter of the year.

Property net operating income increased by 3.2%, with a like-for-like increase in tenant sales (excluding hypermarkets) of 3.8% as a major driver. Footfall was stable, so consumers are still visiting NEPI’s properties despite ongoing eCommerce adoption.

EPRA vacancies are very low at 1.8%, with tenants keen to get a slice of that footfall. This has supported new leasing activity at strong base rents that are 2.2% above indexation (inflation).

One of the interesting strategic focus areas at the group is the accelerated roll-out of solar PV projects. They refer to their energy platform as a “complementary growth driver” for the group, so they are seeing appealing return on capital metrics from this investment. It helps that funding can be raised on preferential terms when there’s an underlying sustainability angle.

Speaking of funding, the loan-to-value of 32.4% sits comfortably below the 35% long-term upper threshold at the group. With a substantial development pipeline over the next three years, having ongoing access to debt at favourable rates will be critical.

No valuations are conducted at the Q1 mark, so there’s no meaningful update on the net asset value per share. The only movements would relate to cash and debt.

Despite all the underlying excitement, guidance for earnings per share growth for the year is around 3%. This is why the share price is flat over the past year, with the market buying NEPI primarily for its yield.

Ghost Bite: Property funds with large development pipelines are hungry for capital. Unless they recycle existing assets, much of this capital will come from shareholders. This leads to more shares being in issue over time, putting downward pressure on earnings per share.


Reunert dragged down by power cables (JSE: RLO)

Earnings have dropped sharply

In Reunert’s trading statement for the six months ended March 2026, shareholders were given the bad news that HEPS from continuing operations will be down by between 20% and 25%. This suggests a range of between 179 cents and 191 cents for interim HEPS.

The actual drop is between 47 cents and 59 cents, with the company attributing 27 cents of this move to the underperformance of the Electrical Engineering segment (and particularly the power cable business).

Weak demand in South Africa and Zambia is an issue, with generally poor infrastructure spend being exacerbated by the increase in raw material commodity prices. The appreciation of the Zambian currency against the US dollar is also an issue. This is a bearish story for the cables business.

Ironically, there’s a 24 cents per share move from IFRS 2 share-based payment expenses linked to the increase in Reunert’s share price. The plan vests in April 2027. If things don’t improve in the cable business, the share incentive plan might be cheaper than they expect!

Ghost Bite: The explosion in data centre demand in this AI era is causing all kinds of difficulties in supply chains. Suppliers will always sell to the highest bidder – and in this case, nobody has more capex available than the hyperscalers. Any product that uses the same inputs (like power cables) is facing immense inflation.


Tharisa’s earnings have skyrocketed (JSE: THA)

There’s no rollercoaster quite like mining

Tharisa’s numbers for the six months ended March reflect an incredible jump vs. the prior period. HEPS is up by between 455.2% and 472.4%, which means an expected range of US 16.1 cents to US 16.6 cents. As I always remind you: when things are good in mining, they are really good.

We had a good idea that this was coming. After all, the commodity prices are no secret.

Ghost Bite: The PGM players are having their time in the sun right now. The key is for them to use their capital wisely to position themselves for the next cycle. In Tharisa’s case, they are investing in underground mining. Extra points for bravery!


Results of previous poll:


Nibbles:

  • Director dealings:
    • The game of musical shares continues at the Wiese family dinner table, with Titan Fincap and Titan Premier Investments entering into a total return swap over Shoprite (JSE: SHP) shares worth a casual R592 million.
    • A director of a major subsidiary of Weaver Fintech (JSE: WVR) sold shares in the group worth R2.2 million. The stock has had an incredible run (it’s been one of my best positions), but it’s important to keep an eye on insiders selling their shares.
    • Johnny Copelyn has bought shares in Montauk Renewables (JSE: MKR) worth around R420k.
    • The CEO of Dipula Properties (JSE: DIB) has celebrated the strong results by buying R213k worth of shares in the company.
  • Given what I’ve been through with the management team of this company, I hate it when Mantengu (JSE: MTU) releases an update that I need to write on. I especially hate it when my concerns about their business prove to be directionally correct. Sublime Technologies, the asset they bought for a miracle price that led to a huge bargain purchase gain, is unable to operate at current Eskom tariffs. They have applied for a new tariff agreement but have yet to receive approval. To their credit, they tried to keep all the staff, but they’ve now had to go into a s189 process as there has been no production of silicon carbide since mid-2025. The broader smelter industry is in crisis in South Africa, so this issue isn’t unique to this asset. Here’s the real point though: don’t you think the sellers of the business took into account the electricity risks when they decided to walk away for a “bargain” price? If Mantengu can get the tariffs they need, then it might still work out to be a great deal (and I hope it does). But the need for professional skepticism remains as important as ever – when you see an enormous bargain purchase gain, you need to ask the tough questions. When a management team responds to those concerns in a highly unusual way, then you need to ask twice as many questions! Hopefully the winds of change have now blown at Mantengu and they will change their approach to dealing with market analysts who ask pertinent question.
  • Shaftesbury Capital (JSE: SHC) has delivered a trading update at the AGM. They seem happy with the first quarter of the year, with new leases and renewals both running comfortably ahead of market rents and previous passing rents. Vacancies are very low, with the London West End continuing to attract shoppers and tenants alike. With 4.6% of the portfolio under refurbishment, Shaftesbury is investing heavily in its portfolio. The loan to value ratio is only 17%, so they have the balance sheet to do it.
  • Finbond (JSE: FGL) has released a further trading statement dealing with the year ended February 2026. The initial trading statement noted a swing from a headline loss per share of 1.9 cents to positive HEPS of at least 2.9 cents. The updated range for HEPS is between 5.01 cents and 5.39 cents, so that’s quite a lot better than initially indicated! It’s still a long way off the share price of R1.13, though.
  • Clientèle (JSE: CLI) has released the circular for the previously announced offer and delisting. With the shares trading at a stubbornly high discount to the embedded value per share, the company has seen the opportunity to move away from the listed environment. Based on an expected payment date of 29 June, the price will be R19.90 – a premium of 25.47% to the 30-day VWAP. This is a pretty standard premium for a buyout offer. You can read the circular here.
  • Labat Africa (JSE: LAB) has released a cautionary announcement regarding the potential acquisition of the remaining 24.5% in Classic International Trading. They highlight that it’s because of the strong results produced by both Classic and Labat. Ideally, you would only want to see a company moving from a controlling position to a 100% stake under certain conditions. One would be if there are synergies that need to be unlocked that require the minorities to be out of the way. Alternatively, it’s a good idea if the acquisition price is highly attractive. But in the absence of those factors, it’s generally a weaker use of capital vs. finding other opportunities. Until a detailed terms announcement is released (if they go ahead), we won’t know whether this is a promising transaction or not.
  • I don’t usually comment on independent director movements, but sometimes they are relevant. Hyprop (JSE: HYP) announced that Kevin Ellerine has resigned from the board to “pursue personal interests”. Those interests may well involve transactions with Hyprop itself, with Ellerine managing the future conflict of interest proactively.
  • Attacq (JSE: ATT) has concluded the appointment of Peter de Villiers as the company’s permanent CFO. Having engaged with him on a recent Unlock the Stock, I’m not surprised to see this at all.
  • Visual International (JSE: VIS) is in talks with Serowe Industries. Serowe might subscribe for up to 34.9% of the issued shares of Visual for R60 million. An extension has been granted until 30 June 2026 to allow Serowe to conclude the due diligence work. The valuation work has apparently already been concluded.
  • Emira Property Fund (JSE: EMI) has been buying up Octodec (JSE: OCT) shares through a combination of off-market deals, on-market trades and a formal voluntary offer. With the offer having been accepted by holders of 2.2% of Octodec shares, Emira’s stake is up to 23.5% of shares in issue.
  • Shuka Minerals (JSE: SKA) has commenced the Phase 1 drilling programme at the No.2 ore body at the Kabwe Zinc Mine. The company plans to increase the existing resource by 50% based on drilling work this year.
  • Aimia (JSE: AII) is renewing its Normal Course Issue Bid – a terribly fancy way (in Canada) of saying that they are doing share buybacks. The board has authorised the repurchase of up to 10% of shares in issue in an effort to reduce the discount between the share price and the NAV per share.
  • In case you somehow think that South Africa is the only land of dicey ethics, then here’s an update from Globe Trade Centre (JSE: GTC) – perhaps the most obscure name of all on the JSE. Preliminary findings of an internal investigation identified indications of irregularities, in connection with the acquisition of assets in Germany. Detailed findings will be communicated in due course. At this stage, it sounds like someone might be deep in the schnitzel.
  • Cafca Limited (JSE: CAC) literally has no liquidity at all in its stock. The Zimbabwean cable manufacturing company has released interims for the six months to March. It’s no surprise that the numbers are reported in US dollars instead of Zimbabwe Gold. Thanks to copper and aluminium volumes, Cafca’s volumes were up 14% year-on-year and revenue grew by 24%. This took profit after tax up by 211%. And no, I’m not sure why this cabling company is making money and others are struggling!

South African M&A Analysis Q1 2026

The country entered 2026 on a positive note, following a flurry of year-end transactions, including several of meaningful scale. This momentum turned uncertain in late February with the conflict in the Middle East, which triggered global market turmoil. Net oil importers like South Africa were particularly hard hit, given the country’s open economy and the rand’s role as a proxy for emerging markets.

The geopolitical backdrop remains central to economic growth and, by association, to the outlook for interest rates and the rand. Ongoing tension in the Middle East, coupled with the absence of a clear US exit strategy, continues to sustain volatility in both oil prices and the currency. These global political tensions are driving up costs across value chains – from agrifood to manufacturing, healthcare and technology – while exacerbating pressure on energy-intensive sectors like transportation, chemicals and metals.

Advisers in the industry note that the turbulence linked to the war in Iran, along with swings in valuations, has not deterred interest in corporate deal-making. What it has done, however, is delay the closing of transactions, as investors adopt a wait-and-see approach – though this may shift if the conflict persists.

A total of 82 deals were recorded in the first three months of the year – valued at R218,2bn – compared with 92 deals valued at R197,4bn in Q1 2025.

Private equity transactions were most prevalent in the unlisted sector, with the quarter recording 20 deals in total. Only two BEE deals were recorded, compared with nine announced over the same period last year. This could be attributed to the evolving legislative landscape around BEE, which is currently undergoing significant change, legal challenge and strategic review.

Once again, sector analysis for the period shows real estate transactions accounting for the majority share of reported activity, followed by deals in the technology and retail sectors. Companies in Europe were the partners of choice for cross-border activity by South African-domiciled, exchange-listed companies, with eight of the 18 deals recorded for the quarter involving European counterparties. These were primarily real estate transactions.

In behind-the-scenes corporate finance activity, companies continue to return value to shareholders through ongoing share repurchase programmes. An aggregate R60,47bn in shares was repurchased over the three-month period, representing 56% of the total value of activity for the period, driven by the usual suspects: Prosus, Naspers, AB InBev and BAT. Other notable transactions included Valterra Platinum and Gold Fields’ distributions of special dividends, with a combined value of R8,5bn.

DealMakers is SA’s M&A publication

DealMakers AFRICA – Q1 2026 Analysis

Africa’s M&A market entered 2026 with strong momentum in deal value, even as overall transaction volumes softened. In the three months to March 2026, announced deals across the continent (excluding South Africa and failed deals) reached an aggregate value of US$4,53 billion from 89 deals, compared with 92 deals valued at $2,92 billion over the corresponding period in 2025. Private equity continued to play a significant role, accounting for half of all transactions recorded during the quarter.

At a regional level, West Africa was, by far, the most active market, accounting for 30 deals, or 34% of total reported activity during the period. North Africa followed with 19 deals, and East Africa with 18. Within these regions, Nigeria (22 deals), Morocco (10 deals) and Kenya (13 deals) emerged as the key drivers of activity.

Energy and fintech remained the sectors of choice for investors across the continent. Of the top 10 deals by value announced during the quarter, four were energy transactions – two deals in Angola and one each in Equatorial Guinea and Ghana – with a combined value of $995 million. Topping the table was MTN’s acquisition of the remaining 75.3% shareholding in IHS, valued at $2,2 billion, followed by Nedbank’s acquisition of a 66% stake in NCBA, valued at $855 million.

According to Africa: The Big Deal, Africa’s start-up funding ecosystem continues to show resilience. In the 12 months to March 2026, African start-ups raised $3,3 billion (excluding exits), comprising $1,8 billion in equity funding and $1,4 billion in debt funding. However, a closer look at the data points to an evolving funding landscape, where overall growth has increasingly been driven by a surge in debt funding, offsetting a decline in equity capital raised.

While debt and equity investors each play distinct, but equally important roles in the development of a maturing start-up ecosystem, concerns remain around the decline in smaller early-stage equity deals. According to the publication, these transactions are critical for building the next generation of companies capable of attracting larger funding rounds in future. The slowdown in early-stage activity may not immediately affect aggregate funding totals – particularly while larger equity rounds and debt transactions continue to come through – but its longer-term implications for the pipeline of scalable African businesses are worth watching.

DealMakers AFRICA is Africa’s corporate finance magazine

www.dealmakersafrica.com

Who’s doing what this week in the South African M&A space?

Pan African Resources (PAR) has updated shareholders on its proposed acquisition of Emmerson Resources announced in March 2026. The company has nominated Tennant Consolidated Mining Group, a wholly owned subsidiary of PAR, to acquire the Emmerson shares. Under the terms of the scheme, Emmerson shareholders will be entitled to receive 0.1493 new Pan African shares (in the form of ASX-listed Pan African CHESS Depositary interests [CDIs]) for each Emmerson share. In conjunction with the scheme, PAR will list on the ASX by way of a foreign exempt listing. This will provide Emmerson shareholders with the ability to trade the CDIs on the ASX. PAR will maintain its dual primary listings on the LSE and JSE.

Spear REIT is to dispose of the rental enterprises Hamilton House and Chiappini House, both located in De Waterkant, Cape Town for an aggregate disposal price of c.R107 million. The properties were acquired by Spear in October 2024 as part of the acquisition of the Western Cape property portfolio of Emira Property Fund.

Equites Property Fund has disposed of a UK portfolio of five logistics properties to a fund managed by ICG Real Estate – part of ICG plc, a LSE-listed global alternative asset manager. The portfolio is valued at £200,5 million equating to a transaction yield of 5.5%. The deal releases c.£95,5 million (R2,1 billion) of net cash proceeds which will be redeployed into a higher-yielding local development pipeline over time.

AttBid has updated RMB Holding (RMH) shareholders following the firm intention offer made in February 2026 to acquire all the shares in RMB other than those held by Atterbury Property Fund (APF) and treasury shares. The offer will close on 29 May with AttBid announcing that as of this week, it had received valid acceptances in respect of 39,04 million shares representing just 2.87% of shares in issue (excluding treasury shares). These acceptances, together with AttBid and APF’s existing shareholdings equate to 46.52% of the RMH shares in issue.

In a cautionary announcement this week Labat Africa advised that it was in advanced negotiations to acquire the remaining 24.45% stake in Classic International Trading – an established IT solutions company. In November 2024 Labat acquired a 75.55% stake in Classic International Trading for an acquisition tag of R16,28 million, settled via the issue of 232,5 million Labat shares.

In September 2025, Serowe Industries announced a non-binding offer to Visual International shareholders to acquire up to 34.9% of the issued share capital of the company for an indicative subscription consideration of R60 million. Serowe has requested, and been granted by Visual, an extension of the non-binding offer to complete due diligence work. Serowe has until 30 June 2026.

The proposed acquisition by Sustent Holdings (funds managed by Mergence Investment Managers and Creation Capital Services) of Mahube Infrastructure from minority shareholders announced in December 2025 will not be implemented. Although Sustent upped the scheme consideration from R5.50 to R6.00 per Mahube share in March, this week the transaction failed to garner the requisite majority vote from shareholders.

African Rainbow Energy and Power (AREP) has increased its investment in the renewable energy sector with the acquisition of a further stake in SOLA Group whose portfolio is valued at c.R20 billion. AREP now has a majority stake of 83% in the independent power producer, having a acquired a 40% stake in 2020. SOLA delivers clean energy to businesses across South Africa using cutting edge generation and energy storage technologies through Power Purchase Agreements, both on-site and through wheeling. The ownership change is being accompanied by a leadership transition in SOLA with the broader management team remaining in place. Financial details were undisclosed.

Bisedge Logistics & Infrastructure, a green logistics company specialising in the provision of electric material handling equipment through a ‘Zero CapEx’ model, has secured a US$20 million investment from pan-African private equity firm Metier Private Equity. The investment will be used to accelerate Bisedge’s expansion in Africa and strengthen its position in the intralogistics sector while growing its fleet of electric material handling equipment.

Sango Capital has acquired c.US$120 million in NAV in four African funds from an institutional investor rebalancing its global portfolio. The deal was funded by Sango’s own capital and additional capital was raised from a diverse group of commercial investors. The acquired portfolio spans financial services, consumer/FMCG, infrastructure and light manufacturing with a physical presence in over 14 African markets.

The disposal by Eskom Finance of its assets to African Bank, announced in March 2025, will not proceed due to conditions precedent of the agreement not having been met in terms of the agreed timeline.

Weekly corporate finance activity by SA exchange-listed companies

Prosus has sold a further 5% stake in Delivery Hero to Aspex Management as required by the European Commission. In August 2025, the Commission approved the acquisition of Just Eat Takeaway.com by Prosus on condition the company significantly reduced the shareholding. The 15,188,284 ordinary shares were disposed of at a price of €22.00 per share representing a premium of c.22% to the one-month VWAP of Delivery Hero shares as of 8 May 2026. The sale resulted in gross proceeds to Prosus of c.€335 million. In April 2026 Prosus disposed of a 4.5% stake in Delivery Hero to Uber Technologies for c.€271,6 million. Following this latest sale, Prosus’ shareholding in Delivery Hero amounts to c.16.8% which will be reduced further in due course.

Emira Property Fund’s offer to shareholders to acquire up to 39,204,583 Octodec shares for a cash consideration of R16.75 per share has closed with a further 8,811,644 shares tendered (3.3%) for an aggregate R147,6 million. Emira’s shareholding has increase to 23.5%. The company was hoping to increase its stake to 34.9%, below the 35% threshold for a mandatory offer to be made to shareholders.

Global media and entertainment company Canal+, which announced the acquisition of MultiChoice in March 2024, has confirmed its intention to complete a fast-track secondary inward listing of its ordinary shares on the JSE. Canal+ will retain its primary listing on the Main Board of the LSE. The company’s 991,959,494 shares will trade from 3 June 2026 in the Media sector and Radio and TV Broadcasters sub-sector. The market capitalisation of the company stands at c.£2,25 billion (R51,0 billion).

This week the following companies announced the repurchase of shares:

Aimia has announced it will renew its offer to purchase on the open market up to 10% (c.5 million shares) of its public float. The shares will be cancelled. The aim is narrow the discount of its share price relative to the intrinsic value of its net assets. Subject to the approval of the Toronto Stock Exchange, the offer will take effect from 6 June 2026 and will end on 5 June 2027, if not before.

In its quarterly update, AngloGold Ashanti has proposed a share repurchase programme of up to US$2 billion, the implementation of which is subject to, among other factors, shareholder approval.

Bytes Technology has announced the intention to implement a new share repurchase programme to purchase the company’s shares for an aggregate value of up to £25,0 million.

enX has concluded an intra-group repurchase with a wholly owned subsidiary which was established to hold shares pursuant to a share incentive scheme. enX will repurchase 945,887 shares at an average price of R3.84 per share for an aggregate R2,63 million. The shares will revert to the authorised but unissued share capital of the company.

Quilter announced it would commence a share buyback programme to repurchase shares with a value of up to £100 million in order to reduce the share capital of the company and return capital to shareholders. This week Quilter announced the repurchase of a further 596,975 shares on the LSE with an aggregate value of £1,11 million and 158,327 shares on the JSE with an aggregate value of R6,60 million.

Ninety One plc announced the extension of its repurchase programme from 31 March 2026 to 3 June 2026. The shares to be purchased on the open market are cancelled to reduce the Company’s ordinary share capital. This week the company repurchased a further 349,640 ordinary shares at an average price 218 pence for an aggregate £756,525.

GreenCoat Renewables has implemented a share buyback programme totalling €100 million over 12 months with a first tranche amounting to €25 million beginning on 5 March 2026 – representing 13% of the issued share capital. This week 1,461,066 shares were repurchased for and aggregate €1,13 million.

In December 2025, British American Tobacco extended its share buyback programme by a further £1.3 billion for 2026. The shares will be cancelled. This week the company repurchased a further 513,952 shares at an average price of £43.17 per share for an aggregate £22,19 million.

During the period 4 – 8 May 2026, Prosus repurchased a further 2,127,637 Prosus shares for an aggregate €88,19 million and Naspers, a further 722,923 Naspers shares for a total consideration of R657,26 million.

Five companies issued profit warnings this week: The Foschini Group, Insimbi Industrial, enX, Nutun and Reunert.

Three companies issued or withdrew a cautionary notice: ISA Holdings, MAS plc and Labat Africa.

Who’s doing what in the African M&A and debt financing space?

Jiji, the Lagos-headquartered classifieds marketplace, has acquired Bikroy, Bangladesh’s largest online classifieds platform, from Sweden-based Saltside Technologies for an undisclosed sum.

Proparco and dfcu Bank signed a Letter of Intent for a proposed €30 million senior loan dedicated to financing Ugandan small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). The proposed funding will provide dfcu with long-term funding to expand its SME lending activities in local and foreign currency and is intended to support businesses that remain structurally underfinanced despite playing a central role in Uganda’s economy and job creation.

Metro Africa Xpress (MAX), a Nigerian electric mobility platform, has secured US$8 million in debt funding from Netherlands-based impact investment manager Triple Jump. The funding will support the expansion of MAX’s electric vehicle (EV) fleet; rollout of battery swap infrastructure and continued development of its Pay-As-You-Go (PAYGO) financing platform.

Egypt’s Beltone Venture Capital and the UAE’s Citadel International Holdings have exited Egyptian logistics company Bosta through their joint investment fund. The transaction generated a 75% internal rate of return (IRR) for the fund. The deal marks the fifth successful exit for Beltone Venture Capital since its launch in 2023 and also represents the second exit completed through the joint fund with Citadel International Holding.

The African Development Bank Group (AfDB) approved a US$61 million financing package for the Development Bank of Nigeria (DBN) to expand access to affordable credit for women-owned and women-led businesses across Nigeria, particularly in the agricultural sector. The financing comprises three instruments: a $50 million gender-focused line of credit; an $8 million concessional facility under the Agri-Food SME Catalytic Financing Mechanism (ACFM); and a $3 million grant under the Bank’s Affirmative Finance Action for Women in Africa (AFAWA) initiative, funded by the Women Entrepreneurs Finance Initiative (We-Fi).

Cameroon officially completed its takeover of Société Générale Cameroun on May 12 in Douala, increasing the state’s ownership in the bank to 83.68%. The Cameroonian government purchased the 58.08% stake previously held by Société Générale as part of a broader transaction signed between the two parties in July 2025. Following the acquisition, the bank was renamed General Bank of Cameroon (GBC).

The Egyptian Exchange (EGX) has approved the temporary listing of the Egypt Education Platform (EEP). According to the EGX disclosure, the company must complete the registration procedures with the Financial Regulatory Authority (FRA). It must also apply to the EGX to execute the offering of its shares within six months from the date of temporary listing. During this period, the company’s shares will not be tradable during the period from the date of the temporary listing. It will only be tradeable after the offering, with the approval of the FRA.

Ghost Bites (Dipula Properties | Equites Property Fund | Nutun | Universal Partners)

In this edition of Ghost Bites:

  • Dipula Properties shows us that there’s money to be in made in property in the northern provinces of our country.
  • Equites Property Fund is bringing capital home from the UK and investing it here.
  • Nutun is still in a loss-making position.
  • Universal Partners has a hit-and-miss portfolio.

Dipula Properties’ portfolio is performing (JSE: DIB)

The share price is up more than 30% in the past 12 months

Instead of owning flashy assets in Cape Town, Dipula focuses on a mainly Gauteng-based portfolio (58% of income). Their retail centres (67% of income) have a strong tilt towards township and rural markets.

This is one of the few genuine growth engines in South Africa, capturing the trend of lower income consumers moving from the informal to the formal retail market.

The fund now owns 155 properties with an average value per property of R73 million. This is better than the 161 properties they held in the prior period with an average value of R61 million. The group has been focusing on higher quality properties.

It’s an approach that works. For the six months to February 2026, net property income climbed by 9% and distributable earnings jumped by 20%. The net asset value (NAV) increased by 16% in total, but only by 4% on a per-share basis (the important metric).

The balance sheet is in good shape. Although debt increased from R3.8 billion to R4.0 billion, the gearing ratio improved from 36% to 34%. That’s a very healthy range for a property group.

Distributable income per share is expected to grow by between 7% and 8% for the full year. They have a dividend payout ratio of 90%.

Ghost Bite: Remember to always look at numbers on a per-share basis, especially in property companies that regularly raise additional equity capital. Dipula is doing well!


Equites Property Fund is bringing R2.1 billion home (JSE: EQU)

The company has locked in a significant disposal in the UK

For quite some time, Equites Property Fund has been talking about disposing of its interests in the UK market and bringing that capital back to South Africa. This is the opposite direction of travel to what we saw in the property sector a decade ago!

Although South Africa is a riskier market, it’s the risk vs. return trade-off that really matters. The UK market is mature and unexciting in this space vs. a South African market that offers strong yields and ongoing demand for distribution centres and warehouses.

The latest transaction is the sale of five distribution centres in the UK to a fund managed by ICG Real Estate. The net proceeds (after debt etc.) will be around R2.1 billion.

It works out to a 3.8% discount to the carrying value of the assets, so the buyer has squeezed Equites on their way out of the UK portfolio. The disposal yield is 5.5%, giving you insight into how high the yields must be in South Africa to make our local market more appealing to Equites.

This capital will be redeployed into the development pipeline, as Equites has pre-let development agreements with blue-chip tenants. They can also raise other funding on more attractive terms thanks to the positive impact of this UK disposal on the loan-to-value ratio of the group.

In a separate update, Equites noted that chairman Leon Campher intends to retire at the upcoming AGM in August. Fulvio Tonelli, who has been an independent non-executive director since 2022, will succeed him as chair.

Ghost Bite: If we can continue our positive trajectory in South Africa and improve our infrastructure, there will be plenty more capital flowing into development projects in our country. Offshore diversification is great, but we want to see local capital going into local projects to the greatest extent possible. Let me know in today’s poll how you are feeling about local vs. offshore exposure:


Nutun is still losing money (JSE: NTU)

Here’s our regular reminder of the sad and sorry demise of Transaction Capital

Once upon a time, in a world before COVID, Transaction Capital was one of the most exciting names on the JSE. They owned SA Taxi and Transaction Capital Risk Services. They subsequently acquired WeBuyCars (JSE: WBC) after the competition regulators blocked Naspers (JSE: NPN) from doing that deal.

But by the time the dust settled after a financial disaster at Transaction Capital, SA Taxi had been restructured and taken off the balance sheet due to immense financial distress. WeBuyCars was spun off and separately listed.

And the charred remains of this once great group were renamed Nutun, holding the debt collection and business process outsourcing operations of what used to be called Transaction Capital Risk Services.

Unfortunately, Nutun is still struggling to return to profitability. The loss for the six months to March 2026 is approximately half of what it used to be, which means a range of -7.5 cents to -8.6 cents. A smaller loss is helpful obviously, but these numbers really need to get out of the red now.

Nutun blames the stronger rand and the impact of a change in macroeconomic assumptions around interest rates.

Ghost Bite: Regardless of whether you have shares in Nutun or not, the important element of this update is the expectation around elevated interest rates. With inflation almost certainly ramping up this year, interest rate cuts simply aren’t going to happen.


Universal Partners remains a hit-and-miss portfolio (JSE: UPL)

There isn’t much to get excited about here

Universal Partners doesn’t have much liquidity in its stock, but shares do change hands from time to time. On an otherwise quiet day of news, I can give their quarterly results more attention than usual.

This investment holding company is focused on Europe and the UK, so that’s already a tricky way to achieve meaningful growth. They’ve made six investments since listing and achieved two exits.

The portfolio is best described as “random” – I really cannot tell you why any of these companies belong in the same group.

We begin with Workwell, which offers various employment solutions ranging from contractor management through to Employer of Record services. Growth is being boosted by bolt-on acquisitions, including in the US market.

Next up is PortmanDentex, one of Europe’s largest dental care platforms. This is the classic roll-up strategy, an approach that I’ve always been very skeptical of. Owning a lot of individual dental practices in one group is no guarantee that the economics will be meaningfully better than having these practices separately.

Sure enough, revenue and EBITDA at PortmanDentex are running below budget, with the company blaming a soft consumer environment. But they are also making senior hires to try and focus on better execution, so at least some of the issues must be internal. This is almost exactly how these roll-ups tend to go.

Onwards to SC Lowy Partners, a credit investing and lending business operating in Asia, Europe and the Middle East. There’s been a lot of financial restructuring of this investment, including equity exposure being changed into loan notes.

Finally, we get to Xcede Group. This is a recruitment business operating in Europe, the UK and North America. It’s nice to see that they are performing well this year, particularly given their focus on the tech space. In this AI world, there are still plenty of opportunities for humans.

I’m not sure what has happened to Propelair, the company that Universal Partners kept promising us was going to revolutionise the toilet (no kidding). Every time I saw an update on the company, it was performing below expectations. There’s no mention of it in the latest results at all!

As for the numbers, the net asset value per share has declined by 5.8% over the past 12 months. The shares are trading at R15.25 vs. the net asset value (NAV) per share of R26.34.

Ghost Bite: If your portfolio ranges from dentists through to credit lending, while featuring the sudden flushing away of a toilet company, then it’s very unlikely that investors will pay anything close to NAV.


Results of previous poll:


Nibbles:

  • Director dealings:
    • The format for notifications of trades by directors on the Australian Securities Exchange (ASX) is a pain to work with. Because Southern Palladium (JSE: SDL) is listed on the ASX, it’s unfortunately the format that we have to deal with. I just wish the company would give more information in the SENS itself! Anyway, aside from recent dealings by directors that were related to share options, there’s also an on-market purchase of 25,000 shares by the executive chairman. That works out to roughly R460k worth of shares.
  • Aimia (JSE: AII), Rhys Summerton’s baby, has reported results for the quarter ended March 2026. There’s still no trade in the shares on the JSE, with the market waiting to see exactly what he will pounce on now that the listing is in place. The group is currently focused on the disposal of Bozzetto (an Italian specialty chemicals business). They are reducing debt and holding company costs, both typical of a turnaround strategy. This leaves them with rope manufacturer Cortland International as the main asset. The global trade environment is putting pressure on the performance of that business, with EBITDA from continuing operations dipping from $2.7 million to $2.5 million. They have much to do.
  • Back in 2023, the JSE imposed a public censure and penalties against Murray Munro, the former CFO of Tongaat Hulett (JSE: TON). Munro appealed it to the Financial Services Tribunal, with that appeal being dismissed. He then went to the High Court, which has ordered that the matter be remitted to the JSE. The JSE has applied for leave to appeal the court’s order.

Ghost Bites (Bytes | Canal+ | MAS | MTN | Octodec | Prosus | Spear REIT)

In this edition of Ghost Bites:

  • The market has gone cold on Prosus, with another drop in the share price after the release of the CEO’s letter
  • MTN is the beneficiary of much better macroeconomics in Africa – and the tough story in South Africa confirms how important that is
  • Canal+ is inward listing on the JSE in June, but will they find support?
  • Bytes Technology has a lot of work to do, with share buybacks giving the market something to smile about.
  • In property, MAS is looking to offload some malls, while Spear REIT showed us exactly how profitable a buy-and-flip can be. Octodec’s interim growth needs to be considered carefully.

Bytes finds some support in the market, but it’s not obvious why (JSE: BYI)

Perhaps the share buyback announcement did the trick

With a share price that has shed over 40% of its value in the past 12 months, Bytes Technology needs to find a bottom and then start turning around. The market seemed to like the announcement of results for the year to February 2026, with the share price closing 6.5% higher on the day.

As you will shortly see, the rally is despite the numbers for that period, not because of them.

Revenue was up just 1.6% despite gross invoiced income increasing by 11.5%, so the concerning trajectory in their business model continues. When you are reliant on the crumbs that Microsoft is willing to give you off the edge of the table, it’s a tough place to be.

Gross profit was up by just 2.5%, which wasn’t enough to offset the pressure in expenses. As an example, headcount increased by 6.9% as the company invested in sales and service delivery. This is why operating profit fell by 5.6%.

With HEPS down by 6.1% and a decline in cash conversion rates as a further concern, these numbers were practically devoid of highlights. The increase in the final dividend per share of 1.4% isn’t much of a consolation prize.

So, what did the market like about this update?

One possible explanation is the FY27 outlook, where Bytes is planning to achieve high single-digit to low double-digit growth in gross profit. The anniversary of the Microsoft partner changes is behind them, so they can now grow off their new base.

But even then, the expectation for operating profit is that it will be “broadly flat” due to significant cost pressures. One of the factors highlighted here is a “return to normal bonus levels” – a surprise given the financial performance.

The outlook doesn’t seem great either, does it?

The only other factor that could’ve driven the rally is the announcement of a share buyback programme of up to £25 million. This works out to roughly R550 million vs. a market cap of over R17 billion. It’s helpful, if not a complete game changer.

The other important news is that Andrew Holden will stand down as CFO and be appointed to the newly created role of COO. The company will announce a new CFO in due course.

Ghost Bite: Share buybacks into a depressed market are helpful, but Bytes needs to get costs under control before investors will really climb back in. I personally wouldn’t pay a mid-teens P/E for a “broadly flat” operating profit trajectory.


Canal+ is coming to the JSE (JSE: CNP)

Can they make the MultiChoice acquisition work?

When Canal+ acquired MultiChoice, they promised that they would inward list on the JSE and give South Africans a chance to invest in the story.

I must be honest: most of the headlines I’ve seen since the deal relate to South Africans being very angry about the changes made at DStv, so I’m not sure that the red carpet is going to be rolled out for Canal+’s listing.

Of course, there’s much more to Canal+ than just MultiChoice and its overpriced bouquet of things that people don’t watch anymore. They will need to convince investors of the value of the full portfolio of media assets. This is where things will get interesting for local investors.

With 42 million subscribers and operations in over 70 countries, Canal+ is a serious operation. 18 million of those subscribers are in Europe, so this isn’t just an emerging markets play. But is it a viable competitor to Netflix and the other streamers?

I quite enjoyed this comment in the announcement:

“Due to the Company’s subscription model, its revenues are consistent and predictable.”

Hmmm.

Ghost Bite: The only predictable thing about DStv subscribers is that most of them would cancel if not for the sport. I think Canal+ will have a difficult time convincing South Africans to invest when the listing happens on the 3rd of June. Here’s how Canal+ has performed in London after being spun-off from Vivendi:

Source: Google Finance

MAS is looking to offload some property (JSE: MSP)

There are two potential deals on the table

Here’s an unusual cautionary announcement for you.

MAS Real Estate is in negotiations with two independent parties regarding the disposal of a wholly-owned enclosed mall and six wholly-owned open-air malls. They might do both deals, or one deal, or neither!

This either/or situation is driven by the company’s desire to do at least one transaction to catalyse the value of its property. If the terms aren’t good enough, then they have the flexibility to walk away from both discussions. If the terms are great, they can do both transactions.

Ghost Bite: A combination of (1) balance sheet flexibility and (2) discipline to sell at the right price is an indication of a management team that knows what they are doing from a capital management perspective.


MTN’s convergence of reported and constant currency numbers is a good sign (JSE: MTN)

The African macroeconomic story has stabilised – for now, at least

MTN’s update for the three months to March 2026 features strong growth rates. This isn’t a surprise, as we’ve been kept updated by the release of numbers by each of the underlying subsidiaries in Africa. The latest update simply brings it all together.

With over 312 million customers and operations in 19 markets, MTN is a true giant of the continent. A 5.4% increase in subscribers suggests that the growth journey is far from over.

Voice revenue was up by just 1.3% as reported, or 4.7% on a constant currency basis. Even in many of these frontier markets, the real growth drivers are data revenue and fintech revenue (up 35.4% and 20.0% in constant currency respectively).

Overall, the group achieved service revenue growth of 20.0% as reported, or 21.1% in constant currency. It’s so good to see that the reported numbers aren’t terribly different from the constant currency numbers. This stability in African countries has been a major driver of performance.

EBITDA increased by 27.9% in constant currency, driving a 300 basis points expansion in EBITDA margin to 47.6%.

Notably, fintech transactions increased by 15.8% and their value was up by 32.8%. The growth flywheel in the fintech space is spinning rapidly. This is why MTN is separating out its fintech business in several markets. Aside from giving them more flexibility around ownership and other regulations, this paves the way for MTN to attract strategic partners into the underlying fintech plays.

Another important initiative is the acquisition of IHS, giving MTN more vertical integration as they look to own the infrastructure that they rely on. Being able to do deals like these is good going for a company that was struggling to keep its holding company balance sheet in one piece a few years ago!

Speaking of the balance sheet, the net debt to EBITDA ratio of 0.2x is way below the targeted upper threshold of 1.0x.

No discussion is complete without a quick look at the South African numbers. MTN South Africa’s service revenue was up by just 0.7%, with a drop in voice revenue of 9.6% putting pressure on the numbers. The biggest headache is the prepaid business, where revenue fell by 3.3% year-on-year.

Here’s something that Optasia (JSE: OPA) shareholders should be very careful of: MTN has deliberately scaled back its reliance on XTraTime advances (down 18.3% year-on-year) as they look to “improve the quality and overall health of the base”. Fo with that what you will.

EBITDA fell by a nasty 12.5%, with margin down by 410 basis points to 32.6%. Some of this is due to share-based payments to employees, but the reality is that the South African business is under pressure. If you split out those payments, you’ll still find an EBITDA decline of 8.3% and a margin down 270 basis points to 35.4%.

Ghost Bite: Africa is a treacherous place thanks to macroeconomic and geopolitical risks, but it’s also the only practical source of growth for our telco giants. When things are stable on the continent, the money flows!

Source: Google Finance

Octodec’s interim growth shouldn’t be extrapolated (JSE: OCT)

Instead, focus on the dividend and the guidance

Octodec has an unusual portfolio. Aside from the sizeable residential portfolio (which is already jarring for most REIT investors), there’s also heavy exposure to Gauteng CBDs. These areas aren’t exactly famous for having great infrastructure and safety, so Octodec is playing in spaces where it feels hard to make money.

They are looking to make changes to the portfolio, with the idea being to focus on residential, mini-warehouse industrial parks and neighbourhood convenience shopping centres. An example of a recent major deal is the disposal of Killarney Mall (which is anything but a convenience centre) for R397.5 million, subject to regulatory approval.

You’ll notice that office properties aren’t part of the plan. I don’t blame them, as Octodec’s portfolio sits outside of the classic “P-grade and A-grade” strategy – and even that has been holding on for dear life in the office space. Lower-grade offices are really suffering, with a vacancy rate of 22.2% in Octodec’s portfolio. The 140 basis points increase in that vacancy rate in the past six months is thanks to the City of Tshwane leaving a building.

Based on this backdrop, you might be surprised to learn that distributable earnings per share increased by 11.1% in the six months to February. As exciting as that sounds, the actual distribution per share is only 4% higher.

The net asset value per share increased by 2.4%, so the total return is higher than inflation, but nowhere near as high as the growth in distributable earnings per share.

The outlook for the full year is growth in distributable income per share of between 3% and 5%. That’s much better than the previous guidance of between 0% and 4%. It also shows that the interim growth shouldn’t be extrapolated.

The balance sheet is in decent shape, with a Loan-to-Value (LTV) of 37.3% vs. 37.9% in FY25. I think this was quite a nice table in the results that demonstrates the importance of a spread of funding:

Ghost Bite: On the REIT risk spectrum, Octodec would find itself far along the horizontal axis. With the share price up 60% over 12 months, the relationship between risk and reward has worked out well recently!


The market has gone cold on Prosus (JSE: PRX | JSE: NPN)

Tech companies in the application layer are suffering at the moment

My shares in Prosus fell by another 5.3% on Tuesday after the company released a letter to shareholders by Fabricio Bloisi. The shares are now 41% off the 52-week high!

With that kind of sell-off, you would expect to see a company in absolute crisis. Instead, it feels like Prosus (and Tencent) are mainly the victims of a market scared of technology companies that play in the application layer rather than the infrastructure layer.

In other words, the market wants to own chip and memory makers, not platform players. The Prosus share price pain isn’t unique in the sector, but it does feel particularly amplified by the market’s ongoing distrust of the “Prosus ex-Tencent” portfolio.

But what was in the letter?

Bloisi is promising a “year of execution” in FY27. The group is focusing on AI enhancements across the business, ranging from better recommendation engines through to agentic commerce.

The letter also includes some financial elements. For FY26, Prosus achieved its guidance on revenue and eCommerce-adjusted EBITDA. The letter notes that all of the ecosystems are profitable, with the goal being to build the leading lifestyle ecosystems in LatAm, Europe and India.

And with a comment around the need for “trade-offs” to drive growth, we are reminded that Prosus is now operating in a market where capital is far more expensive than it was during the pandemic.

In Latin America, iFood is the platform that Prosus is building around. This is Bloisi’s legacy and he understands it very well, so I’m not surprised to see this. Synergies are important here, with Despegar running ahead of guidance for revenue from iFood referrals. Travel and pizza seem to pair well!

But this market is anything but easy, with the letter noting that iFood’s competitors are expected to spend more than $1.5 billion this year to win market share. Value-destructive competition is great for consumers and bad for platforms, with Prosus flagging an expected reduction in adjusted EBITDA in FY27 as they invest in the platform. Even though this is probably the right long-term play, the market is in no mood to hear this story.

In Europe, OLX is hitting its adjusted EBITDA targets and taking advantage of a platform that has been enhanced by the La Centrale deal. On the topic of deals, Just Eat Takeaway.com (JET) is going to be a difficult turnaround. JET’s volumes fell 7% year-on-year, but pilot programmes are achieving growth of 25% in some cities. They expect to return JET to growth by the end of the year after four years of decline. Again, this may well be the right long-term play, but the market is especially not keen on platform turnaround stories right now.

In India, PayU is the heart of the ecosystem. India gets just one paragraph in the letter though, so they are playing their cards close to their chest in that business.

Ghost Bite: The share repurchases continue. Personally, I hope they will accelerate with the proceeds of the partial sale of Delivery Hero. With the share price under so much pressure, nothing sends a message like share repurchases.


Spear REIT delivers a buy-and-flip masterclass (JSE: SEA)

This isn’t their usual strategy, but why not make money where you can?

In October 2024, Spear REIT acquired Hamilton House and Chiappini House in the Cape Town CBD for a total of R80.75 million. They’ve now agreed to sell the properties for an estimated R107 million (this could vary slightly depending on date of transfer).

For a long term holder of property, that’s quite the buy-and-flip profit!

The properties were acquired as part of the Western Cape portfolio that Spear bought from Emira Property Fund (JSE: EMI). Like in most garage sales, the stuff you buy will often contain a gem or two that you got at a bargain price.

Spear had to do the work though, with the value unlock play based on the properties being good candidates for redevelopment into residential property. This isn’t where Spear wants to play, so they are recycling the capital into industrial, convenience retail and institutional-grade commercial assets.

Ghost Bite: When management teams are aligned with shareholders and consistently do the right things, everyone wins.


Results of previous poll:


Nibbles:

  • Director dealings:
    • The non-executive chair of Primary Health Properties (JSE: PHP) bought shares worth around R103k through the reinvestment of dividends.
  • If you’re interested in South32 (JSE: S32) and learning more about the metals underpinning the investment story (like copper and zinc), then you can check out the strategy presentation that the CEO will be delivering at a conference this week. You’ll find it here.
  • Not all scheme of arrangements achieve shareholder approval. We’ve been reminded of this fact by Mahube Infrastructure (JSE: MHB). The scheme of arrangement regarding the offer by Sustent at R6.00 per share (originally R5.50 per share) was voted down by shareholders. Approximately 65% of votes were cast against the scheme, so it failed by a country mile. This stock was trading below R4.00 per share a year ago, so it’s going to be interesting to see what happens next.
  • Oceana Group (JSE: OCG) has decided to extend CEO Neville Brink’s employment contract. The termination date has been pushed out from 31 December 2026 to 31 December 2027. The concern is that this is based on an unsuccessful search for a replacement CEO. Succession planning appears to be lacking here, with Brink having been in the role since 2022.
  • Orion Minerals (JSE: ORN) announced the results of resource optimisation drilling. Unless you’re a geologist or mining engineer who understands the importance of a down-dip visible copper sulphide mineralisation, you can skip all the numbers and read the CEO’s commentary. The summary is that the results are “encouraging” but that laboratory testing will give the real answers, with the report due in roughly three weeks.

Ghost Bites (Balwin | Boxer | Prosus | Raubex | Redefine Properties | Vodacom)

Balwin: the complexities of moving beyond the building of complexes (JSE: BWN)

There are a number of distortions in the numbers

Balwin has released results for the year ended February 2026. Although revenue was up by an impressive 21% at the property developer, profit was only 9% higher. And by the time we reach HEPS, the increase was just 4%!

Just to confuse investors, the jump in recurring HEPS was 41%.

Seeing such a big difference between HEPS (a regulated calculation) and recurring HEPS (a concept that management decides on) is always tricky for investors. In this case, it looks like the timing of land sale transactions and fair value adjustments to investment property are to blame for the difference.

With Balwin building and holding properties for rental (they have investment property of R506.9 million), I don’t think investors can easily ignore these fair value movements. After all, they are a component of the long-term returns when you decide to hold property!

At least sanity prevailed in whatever Balwin was planning to do with “in-house educational facilities” – I really hope that doesn’t mean that they were thinking of building schools or anything along those lines. Balwin needs to focus with their capital, not create new distractions.

Here’s the metric that investors actually care about: a 22% increase in apartment sales. Balwin Annuity also generated growth in revenue of 25%, contributing 8.1% to group revenue and providing a decent underpin to the results.

Sadly, group gross margin fell from 30% to 27%. Margin on apartments was steady at around 24%, so the decline was driven by the disposal of land parcels in the current and prior year.

Cash generated from operations was a much healthier R198.7 million vs. cash used of R211.5 million in the comparable period. Notably, the loan-to-value ratio improved from 40.4% to 38.1%. Given the need to manage the debt carefully, Balwin hasn’t declared a dividend.

The share price is up by over 70% in the past year, with shareholders looking through the noise and buying the company on a modest P/E.


Boxer is firmly in the winners camp in the grocery market (JSE: BOX)

They’ve made an important point about growth in the upcoming period

Boxer closed 7.7% higher after releasing results for the 52 weeks ended 1 March 2026. The market clearly loved them.

Pick n Pay (JSE: PIK) closed 9% higher, with the market celebrating the look-through exposure in that broken retail story (keep in mind that Pick n Pay has the controlling stake in Boxer).

I’ll just say it again: if Pick n Pay sells more of the Boxer stake to fund its own losses in years to come, then buying Pick n Pay because you like Boxer is about as useful as brushing your teeth with Coke instead of water. I get the play on sum-of-the-parts and all the other arguments, but management is in control of those parts, not you.

Focusing on Boxer, where we have fresh results, we find turnover growth of 9.6% and an increase in trading profit of 14.3%. Trading profit margin expanded from 5.4% to 5.7%. A 30 basis points uplift is meaningful in a business like this!

HEPS unfortunately continues to be impacted by the IPO structure, which led to a vast increase in the number of shares in issue in late 2024. If we just look at headline earnings instead, the increase was 13.2%. In a grocery market where the winners are detaching themselves from the losers, Boxer is clearly a winner.

Perhaps most impressively, the 4.5% like-for-like growth was achieved despite internal selling price deflation of 1.2%. This means that they achieved strong growth in volumes in the existing stores.

They are also expanding rapidly, with 51 net new stores taking the total footprint to 576 stores. With a return on invested capital (ROIC) of 26%, shareholders won’t be unhappy with Boxer following an expansion programme with the 60% of headline earnings that doesn’t get paid out as a cash dividend.

The next financial year will finally be a “clean” period in which all of the IPO distortions would’ve been worked out of the system. Unfortunately, it’s also a period in which the effect of the energy price spike will be felt by consumer businesses.

Boxer has already signalled caution here, noting that growth in the first 9 weeks of the new financial year is slower than they saw towards the end of FY26. Inflation is going to be a feature of the current period.

What is your view on the Pick n Pay value-unlock trade?


Prosus offloads another 5% in Delivery Hero (JSE: PRX | JSE: NPN)

This is part of the commitments made to the European Commission

When the European Commission approved the acquisition by Prosus of Just Eat Takeaway.com, the condition attached to the deal was that Prosus must significantly reduce its shareholding in Delivery Hero. And yes, even the regulator was vague about exactly what that means.

You may recall that Prosus sold 4.5% in Delivery Hero to Uber last month. They’ve now sold another 5% in the company to Aspex Management. The price on this deal is €22 per share, representing a 22% premium to the 30-day VWAP. In case you’re wondering, it’s also better than the €20 per share they got from Uber!

This latest sale unlocks €335 million for Prosus. Together with the disposal to Uber, they’ve turned around €605 million into cash.

Although they aren’t explicit on this in the latest announcement for some reason, it looks like the stake in Delivery Hero is down to roughly 16.8% in the company.


A mixed bag at Raubex: Bauba Resources in the green, but Australia deep in the red (JSE: RBX)

They need to simplify the earnings profile of this group

This won’t exactly go down as a blockbuster period for Raubex. In the year ended 28 February 2026, revenue was up by 4.6% and HEPS increased by just 1.9%. The numbers are going the right way, but not by much.

There’s a significant divergence in the cash vs. profits story. Although operating profit increased by 11.6%, cash generated from operations fell by a significant 30.3%. When you see something like this, you need to go digging into the working capital to see where the money is getting tied up.

In this case, every line in working capital is to blame.

Trade receivables jumped by 17.2% despite such a modest increase in revenue, with average collection days increasing from 38 days to 43 days (a concerning trend). Inventory was 36% higher due to increased ore levels at Bauba Resources. To compound the pressure, we find that trade payables decreased by 10.2%, which means that suppliers were paid faster than before.

Together with an increase in borrowings of 20.6% to fund the acquisition of the Axis Group, Raubex needs to be careful with the balance sheet. Cash and cash equivalents of R1.87 billion was 11.4% lower than the comparable period.

Looking at the segmentals, the good news story is undoubtedly the Materials Handling and Mining division. Although revenue was down 3.2%, operating profit increased dramatically from just R4.2 million to R444.9 million. This takes the division to an operating profit margin of 10.8% – a huge improvement. The order book has nearly doubled, so that should support revenue in the period to come.

Within this segment, Bauba Resources (which Raubex should ideally dispose of) drove most of the volatility. Bauba swung from a loss of R235.8 million to profit of R243.7 million! Perhaps they will now find a buyer.

In Construction Materials, revenue was up 8% but operating profit fell by 13.4%. Raubex blames weather conditions in the first two months of the year and the situation in the ferrochrome sector in South Africa. The order book has increased by an encouraging 40.4%.

Roads and Earthworks put in a steady performance, with revenue up 4.9% and operating profit increasing by 4.3%. The order book dipped by 6.7% though, so keep an eye on that.

In the Infrastructure dividend, revenue was up 30.2% and operating profit jumped by a juicy 42.2%. The order book inched higher by 1.6%, so they need to focus on converting that order book as efficiently as possible.

Finally, in Australia, revenue was down 14.4% and there was a hideous negative swing from operating profit of R303.9 million to an operating loss of R60.4 million. There was a loss of R177 million on a single contract for a major mining client! I really have no idea why South African businesses get hurt so consistently by Australia.

The outlook statement is heavy on narrative (two pages of it!) and light on actual numbers. I wish South African management teams were required to give more detailed financial guidance.


A dependable performance at Redefine Properties (JSE: RDF)

That’s exactly what investors are looking for

Redefine Properties released results for the six months to February 2026. With the dividend per share up by 6.9%, the group has done a solid job of delivering what investors are looking for: returns that give protection against inflation.

Another important metric is the NAV per share, up by 4.3% and adding to the return for shareholders.

With the loan-to-value (LTV) ratio at 40.3%, the balance sheet is in the sweet spot of balancing return on equity vs. debt risk. Most REITs want to run at roughly a 40% LTV.

Despite an operating environment that isn’t exactly supportive of decreasing interest rates or less pressure on consumers (factors that would help REITs), Redefine has bravely raised the full-year earnings outlook. Distributable income per share is expected to grow by between 6% and 7%.

The performance in the first half of the year would no doubt have given them some confidence here. Still, the mid-point of the upgraded guidance suggests a tougher second half to the year vs. the first half.


Vodacom’s Egyptian adventure is working – for now at least (JSE: VOD)

Favourable macroeconomics make a big difference to telcos

Vodacom isn’t sitting back and letting MTN (JSE: MTN) get the lion’s share of Africa. Far from it, in fact.

Vodacom is targeting 275 million customers by 2030. They are currently on 237.3 million, having added 26 million in the past year. There’s a long way to go, but Africa is an exciting place that offers these kinds of opportunities (along with an incredible cocktail of macroeconomic and geopolitical risks).

Customer growth helped boost revenue by 12.9% on a normalised basis. Normalised group EBITDA grew by 14.2%, so there was some margin expansion as well.

Unsurprisingly, Egypt was the most exciting growth story. In local currency, revenue was up 36.2% and EBITDA jumped by 44.5%. As I wrote during my recent travels, Vodafone Egypt billboards are everywhere in that country – and the people seem to be on their phones all the time!

We also discussed my trip and the associated insights in this episode of Magic Markets:

Just contrast this to South Africa where revenue growth was only 2.1%. It’s clear that the South African market is far too mature to be an interesting source of growth for investors.

Safaricom sits somewhere in the middle, with local currency revenue growth of 11.5% and EBITDA growth of 27.9%. Ethiopia is still loss-making at present, but customer growth of 54.2% took them a lot closer to breakeven levels.

The other area to highlight is what Vodacom confusingly calls the “International” segment – consisting of Tanzania, DRC, Lesotho and Mozambique. The latter is a struggle at the moment, but the other three countries helped drive service revenue growth of 14.4% and EBITDA growth of 27.8% (in rands).

Financial services remains a major focus area and opportunity for the telcos in Africa. With a 17.4% increase in customers and a 16.6% increase in transaction values, Vodacom isn’t playing around in this space either.

Vodacom’s growth path is confirmed by recent corporate activity.

There was the recent Maziv fibre deal in South Africa that was extremely difficult to get across the line from a regulatory perspective.

And in December, Vodacom agreed to acquire an additional 20% stake in Safaricom, the East African asset focused on Kenya and Ethiopia. The closing of the Safaricom deal is subject to a court process in Kenya.

Investors should feel good about Vodacom reinvesting their capital at the moment. Return on capital employed has jumped from 23.5% to 27.5%. There’s also plenty of cash making its way back to investors, with the dividend up 18.5% for the full year.

The Vodacom share price closed 4.5% higher on the day, so the market liked these numbers.

The pandemic and post-pandemic period has been a crazy ride in this sector. There’s an element of the tortoise vs. the hare in this five-year chart of Vodacom vs. MTN:


Results of previous poll:


Nibbles:

  • Director dealings:
    • A director of Santam (JSE: SNT) bought shares worth R750k.
    • The company secretary of Bidvest (JSE: BVT) sold shares worth R325k.
  • MTN (JSE: MTN) announced the results of MTN Rwanda for the quarter ended March 2026. They look good, with service revenue up 21.2% and EBITDA increasing by 32.8%. Although capital expenditure only increased by 1.9%, you actually need to separate out the capex excluding leases. On that basis, there was a wild 812.8% increase in capex due to network upgrades, leading to a 6.5% decline in free cash flow!
  • Emira Property Fund (JSE: EMI) announced the results of the offer to shareholders in Octodec (JSE: OCT). Through a combination of on-market purchases and the offer itself, Emira now has a 23.5% stake in Octodec. This is a significant minority stake that gives Emira influence (but not control) over the direction that Octodec takes.
  • RMB Holdings (JSE: RMH) shareholders aren’t exactly falling over one another to accept the offer by AttBid. At this stage, valid acceptances have only been tendered by holders of 2.87% of shares in issue. This would take the concert parties to 46.52%. The offer is open until 29 May. As I’ve flagged before, shareholders tend to keep their options open until the last minute, so it’s hard to forecast where the final acceptance rates will land.
  • ISA Holdings (JSE: ISA) has withdrawn the cautionary announcement related to negotiations with a potential acquirer of a controlling stake in the company. This is exactly why caution was needed in the first place: negotiations often fizzle out.
  • Collins Property Group (JSE: CPP) released a trading statement dealing with the year ended February 2026. They expect the distribution per share to be up by between 15% and 20%, comprising a combination of a dividend and a return of capital. Detailed results will be out this week.
  • enX Group (JSE: ENX) released a trading statement for the six months to February 2026. The percentage movements aren’t particularly helpful, as the shape of the group has changed dramatically due to asset disposals. But the important point is that revenue in the continuing operations is down by 37%, driven mainly by the timing of lumpy data centre contracts. The continuing operations suffered a headline loss per share of between 2 cents and 4 cents. It will be important to dig into the detailed results once they become available.
  • Insimbi Industrial Holdings (JSE: ISB) has released a further trading statement dealing with the year ended February 2026. Although the company is still in a loss-making position, the severity of the losses is diminishing. After reporting a headline loss per share of 6.50 cents in the prior period, they now expect a headline loss per share of between 3.01 cents and 4.07 cents. EBITDA is expected to be at least 45% higher than the R51.1 million in the prior period. Detailed results are expected to be released on 29 May.
  • Wesizwe Platinum (JSE: WEZ) has finally released results for the year ended December 2025. There was a massive positive swing in the numbers from a headline loss per share of 12.23 cents (restated) to HEPS of 9.86 cents. They expect to have their new financial systems in place by June, having suffered a cyberattack that led to the suspension of trade in the shares due to the company’s inability to publish financial results. The suspension should be lifted soon after the integrated annual report is published at the end of May.
  • Copper 360 (JSE: CPR) has suspended the processing of lower-grade waste material and broken stock at the Rietberg mine. Instead, they will focus their limited resources on underground development activities at the mine over the next few months. This will have an impact on employees at Rietberg, with a labour consultation process having begun. Copper 360 has 12 previously operating mines and 60 identified copper prospects. Perhaps therein lies the problem as much as the opportunity?
  • In the latest example of ASP Isotopes (JSE: ISO) using SENS as a PR tool rather than a place for financial updates, they’ve announced that Quantum Leap Energy has entered into a non-binding memorandum of understanding (MOU) with a European nuclear technology company. The great dressing-up of Quantum Leap Energy for its separate listing continues.
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