Saturday, December 28, 2024
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Who doesn’t love a seance?

AI is threatening to resurrect the dead, using the footprints we leave behind online for reference. The Victorians did the same thing, just with less tech. 

For Kim Kardashian’s fortieth birthday (way back in 2020), her then-husband Kanye West presented her with an unexpected and deeply surreal gift: a hologram of her late father, Robert Kardashian. According to reports, Kim was overcome with a mix of disbelief and joy as she watched her father, long gone, appear virtually at her birthday celebration, speaking and moving as if he was really in the room. 

The idea of reconnecting with a loved one who has passed on, even through technology, might seem like a miracle – or something straight out of a Black Mirror episode. Because let’s be honest: as comforting as it might sound, the concept of resurrecting the dead via deepfake technology treads a fine line between heartwarming and profoundly unsettling. The realistic output of this cutting-edge AI software comes from the fact that it uses data like photographs, videos, and emails to construct an eerily lifelike virtual representation of the deceased. Think of it as a digital echo crafted from the fragments they left behind.

What once seemed like the fever dream of science fiction writers is strongly on its way to becoming our reality. Of course, this isn’t the first time that we’ve received personal messages from beyond the grave. 

Ghost fever

The Victorians (those living during the 63 years of Queen Victoria’s reign over Great Britain and Ireland, from 1837 to 1901) had an almost obsessive fascination with the dead.

Queen Victoria herself may have been part of the reason for this. Her grief for her late husband, Prince Albert, was nothing short of monumental – a mourning ritual so elaborate and enduring it shaped not just her life but the culture of an entire era. For 40 years after Albert’s death (and the majority of her rule), the queen dressed exclusively in black, a living emblem of perpetual widowhood, and insisted that their home remain frozen in time, exactly as it had been the day he died.

Each morning, servants dutifully performed the rituals of a man who was no longer there. Albert’s clothes were carefully laid out, hot water was brought for his shaving cup, and even his chamber pot was scoured as though he might return at any moment. The bed linens were changed daily, and by his bedside, the glass from which he took his final dose of medicine remained untouched.

Victoria’s devotion extended beyond these daily rituals. In every official photographic portrait of the royal family, a bust or painting of Albert was included, often positioned prominently among the children and other relatives posing for the camera. It was as if, even in death, he was still the head of the household, his presence woven into the very fabric of the family’s identity. Consider the below photo, taken on the occasion of her son’s wedding, with the queen wedged solidly between the newlyweds but turned away from the camera, instead facing a bust of her late husband. The bride must have been thrilled. 

This intense display of mourning by the head of the nation, combined with the high mortality rates in Victorian England, created a culture where thinking about death and the departed was as normal as thinking about what’s for dinner. The bereaved found comfort in the notion that those who were lost to them weren’t gone, simply on a different plain, where they could potentially still be reached. This interest found its most theatrical expression in the spiritualist movement of the 19th century. At its core was the idea of communicating with those who had passed on, often facilitated by mediums claiming to bridge the gap between the living and the beyond. 

Hello from the other side

In no time at all, public displays of mediumship and psychic power became all the rage, particularly among the upper classes. Seances, in particular, became the centrepiece of many a wealthy host’s evening entertainment. Gathered in elaborately decorated parlour rooms, guests would sit in tense anticipation as mediums conjured spirits – or at least the appearance of them – through dramatic table rapping, ghostly apparitions, or messages from the other side. These events combined the thrill of the supernatural with the flair of a theatrical performance, satisfying both a cultural curiosity and a hunger for spectacle.

Of course, not everyone was convinced. While some swore by the authenticity of these paranormal encounters, sceptics accused mediums of being charlatans, exploiting grief for profit. Yet even these accusations didn’t dull the fascination. Whether out of belief, curiosity, or a desire to impress their social circle, Victorians flocked to seances and other displays.

Among them was none other than Sir Arthur Conan Doyle, the famed creator of Sherlock Holmes. In the 1880s, a young Arthur Conan Doyle – then a doctor living in England – found himself drawn to the shadowy allure of the spiritualist movement. He became a regular attendee and host of seances, where he observed uncanny displays of psychic phenomena such as telepathy, automatic writing, and the eerie spectacle of table tipping. These experiences convinced him that there was more to existence than the physical world, leading the lapsed Catholic to declare himself a Spiritualist.

The horrors of World War I and the devastating losses it brought to his family forever altered Doyle’s spiritual path. In 1918, his eldest son, Kingsley, succumbed to complications from pneumonia, a casualty of both war wounds and the influenza pandemic. The following year, Doyle lost his brother, and soon after, two of his nephews. These successive blows left him bereft, but also searching, and he turned to Spiritualism with renewed passion.

For Doyle, the unseen world wasn’t just a possibility; it was a certainty, one he dedicated his later years to exploring and sharing with others. So intense was Doyle’s belief in a life after this one that he planned to deliver a message at his own memorial service.

On July 13, 1930, some six thousand people crammed themselves into London’s Royal Albert Hall to hear Sir Arthur Conan Doyle speak, six days after his death. Among the chairs set on stage for the Conan Doyle family – Lady Conan Doyle, her children Denis, Adrian, Jean, and stepdaughter Mary – there was one more, marked with Sir Arthur’s name.

The service began traditionally, with hymns, scripture readings, and tributes. But the atmosphere shifted when Estelle Roberts, a prominent London medium and one of Conan Doyle’s favourites, took the stage. For about half an hour, she attempted to commune with various spirits, though the restless audience began to thin. Then, as some started leaving, Roberts suddenly exclaimed, “He’s here!”

She later told reporters that she had seen the spirit of Conan Doyle himself stride across the stage and sit in the reserved chair, before getting up to deliver a whispered message in her ear. That message was then whispered into the ear of the widow Conan Doyle by the medium, who smiled and nodded upon hearing it. Lady Conan Doyle was resolute in her belief. “I am perfectly convinced the message is from my husband,” she declared. “I am as sure he was here with us as I am sure I am speaking to you. It was a happy message – cheering, encouraging, and sacred. It is precious to me and will remain secret.”

We’ll never know what the message was, because Lady Conan Doyle indeed kept it a closely guarded secret until her own death in 1940 – and by that time, interest in mediums had waned enough that no-one was volunteering to ask her to disclose it from beyond the veil. 

Ghosts in the machine

The parallels between Victorian spiritualism and today’s AI-driven resurrections are striking. At their core, they reveal a persistent human longing to connect with those we’ve lost. Where Victorian mediums harnessed theatrical flair to channel the departed, today’s technology uses algorithms to recreate their voices and likenesses, offering a digital substitute for the closure we seek. In both cases, the emotional appeal is undeniable, yet it walks a precarious line between solace and exploitation.

The question lingers: at what point does this act of remembrance become a tool for profit, manipulation, or even self-deception? Whether through the smoke and mirrors of a seance or the uncanny accuracy of a hologram, both mediums and machines remind us of the same truth: grief can make us vulnerable, and the promise of connection, however fleeting or fabricated, is an offer many are willing to accept at any price.

About the author: Dominique Olivier

Dominique Olivier is the founder of human.writer, where she uses her love of storytelling and ideation to help brands solve problems.

She is a weekly columnist in Ghost Mail and collaborates with The Finance Ghost on Ghost Mail Weekender, a Sunday publication designed to help you be more interesting.

Dominique can be reached on LinkedIn here.

GHOST STORIES #50: Get to know the Satrix Global Balanced Fund of Funds ETF

Listen to the show using this podcast player:

The Satrix Global Balanced Fund of Funds ETF aims to provide local investors with optimally diversified exposure to a global basket of indices representing different asset classes. This is a low-cost, easy way to invest in a mix of equities, bonds, infrastructure, property, credit and cash assets.

Nico Katzke, Head of Portfolio Solutions at Satrix* joined me to explain the concept of a balanced fund, the strategic asset allocation in this ETF and how Satrix has managed to achieve this exposure at just 35 basis points a year in costs.

You can learn more about this brand new fund here.

*Satrix is a division of Sanlam Investment Management

Satrix Investments Pty Limited and Satrix Managers RF Pty Limited are authorised financial services providers. Nothing you have heard in this podcast should be construed as advice. Please do your own research and visit the Satrix website for more information on all their ETF products.

Full transcript:

Introduction: This episode of Ghost Stories is brought to you by Satrix, the leading provider of index tracking solutions in South Africa and a proud partner of Ghost Mail. With no minimums and easy, low-cost access to local and global products via the SatrixNow online investment platform, everyone can own the market. Visit satrix.co.za for more information.

The Finance Ghost: Welcome to this episode of the Ghost Stories podcast. It’s another one with the team from Satrix, so you know you’re going to learn some great stuff. Nico Katzke is joining me this time around.

Nico, we are going to be talking about a pretty interesting new product coming out of Satrix, so I’m very stoked to be having this chat with you as always. We’ve had some really good conversations this year ranging from high-level investment themes all the way down to products. This one is about a product, but again, it includes some pretty important investment concepts as well, and it’s something we haven’t actually spoken about before, which is balanced funds.

The product we are talking about is the Satrix Global Balanced Fund of Funds ETF. Quite a mouthful for this time of year, I’ve got to tell you. You got to really concentrate for that one. But the name is less important than what’s in it and how good a product it is. Thank you as always for joining me on the show.

Nico Katzke: Thanks, Ghost. Thanks for having me. Yes. Excited to get stuck into the detail of this fund.

The Finance Ghost: Yeah, absolutely. I think let’s just start with basically the most fundamental concept of the lot, which is what is a balanced fund and what is the difference between this thing and a more traditional equity fund? Why might a balanced fund be more suitable for a particular investor?

Nico Katzke: So it’s a great question. I think, to start off with, the main idea behind a balanced fund is to offer investors diversified exposure to different asset classes in an optimal blend. Hence the name balanced. It aims to balance risk exposure between different asset classes that may include everything from bonds, commodities, real estate, credit, equities, etc.

Now contrast this to an equity fund like the Satrix Top 40 ETF or the S&P 500, which invests in shares only. In other words, through a balanced fund, you’re getting a balanced exposure to the different asset classes that are on offer. Balanced funds generally are a great solution for investors that find the choosing of which asset classes to invest in daunting. Now, we all know we shouldn’t place all our eggs in one basket, and so balance funds help you in being optimally diversified. In other words, picking different baskets to place your eggs in.

Satrix has actually been successfully managing balanced funds for more than a decade now with our flagship Satrix Balanced Index Fund having outperformed industry peers more than 90% of the time on a rolling three year basis since inception. It’s wonderful performance that we’ve delivered there. In fact, up to the end of October, it’s also in the top 90th percentile, so top decile and top quartile respectively over one and three years compared to active peers in the balanced fund space.

So there’s actually clearly nothing passive about this performance, right? Our performance has also been one of the most consistent within our market over the past 10 years. There are several reasons for us being well positioned to add a lot of value for clients through our balanced fund range that we can unpack here for sure. But just for now, just to sort of set the scene, we do have a lot of experience in managing balanced funds and we are very excited to bring this Satrix Global Balance Fund ETF to market where we apply our portfolio design skills and index tracking capability to introduce this global balanced fund in a low cost ETF vehicle, which is a first for the South African market.

The Finance Ghost: So I think, Nico, let’s run through some of the constituents then of a balanced fund. I’m thinking of some of the really traditional advice – you know, advice is always a dangerous word – but that sort of 60/40 split, equities and bonds, some of these rules of thumb, let me call them, that tend to find their way into the investment narrative.

Balanced funds kind of speak to that concept a little bit, but there’s a lot more in there. If I have a look at the documents for this thing and what’s actually in there, you’ve got a mix of developed and emerging market equity. You’ve got some infrastructure, you’ve got some property, some bonds, some credit funds. It’s all very interesting.

So what is the backstory here in terms of the asset allocation strategy? These percentages are never an accident. I know for a fact that there’s lots of thinking that goes into them. So what is the approach there? What does the back testing look like? You know, what are you trying to achieve with this then?

Nico Katzke: That’s actually a great question. There’s a lot of work that goes on under the hood when it comes to arriving at our strategic asset location for our balance funds. And it’s one of those almost underappreciated facts, if you like, that there’s really no such thing as a passive balanced fund. All balanced funds have a very active design, so you actually have to decide how you allocate to the different underlying asset classes.

There’s also no clear benchmark, right? You mentioned 60/40, that’s a traditional split between equities and bonds, but there’s no optimality behind it. There’s no consideration of what the world might look like or what factors are influencing markets. It’s simply a rule of thumb, if you like.

So we go one step better and actually look at, to your point, different back tests, different analyses that we run. So our CIO Kingsley and myself, we work very closely together with actually doing the modelling and running this by different teams inside Sanlam. And we always joke that the perception is that the SAA comes to Kingsley in a dream. I can very firmly state that that is not the case. We actually do a lot of work behind our strategic asset location.

The Finance Ghost: SAA being strategic asset allocation, not failed airlines! That’s anything but a dream, more of a nightmare.

Nico Katzke: That’s it. That’s it. Now, in addition to the SAA or strategic asset allocation, like you said, not the airline, you also have, well, you can also think of it from a static asset location. So that’s where to your point, you just statically apply a 60/40 split. Ours is strategic, where we actually think about this very carefully and design it to be optimal. But you also get tactical asset locations or TAA, where active managers look to add value by changing their strategic asset locations to take advantage of short-term opportunities. Now this is where our balanced fund approach differs in that we don’t deviate from our optimal blend in the short term. There’s a lot of research behind this that has quite convincingly shown that globally, not just in South Africa, technical efforts on the whole actually detract value from a portfolio and end up simply adding a lot of trading costs. Fighting the urge to act often protects us from ourselves in life. It’s generally a good principle to apply. It’s quite the same way that changing lanes in traffic might make you feel like you’re adding value, but many times you simply end up behind a truck or find yourself having to cut back in your lane, old lane, and annoy other drivers in the process.

It’s mostly better staying in your lane, in the lane that will get you there quicker, else you end up burning more fuel, arriving at work with higher blood pressure, more irritated. So with our balance funds, we choose to stay in our predetermined lane and focus on reducing costs along the way and then try to ignore the noise in the short term.

Now, as I’ve mentioned, we have great experience and quantitative capabilities when it comes to modelling and backtesting in order to determine our optimal blend of assets. We also fortunately tap into the broader collective brain power within Sanlam that allows us to incorporate diverse views into our analyses. So to my earlier point, it doesn’t come to us in a dream. There’s actually a lot of quantitative work that goes on behind the scenes, a lot of internal discussions to arrive at an optimal blend of assets that best place the odds in favour of investors looking ahead over the medium- and longer-term. Now, we always look to pair quant insights with deeper fundamental discussions and forecasts, which ultimately leads us to arrive at our optimal strategic asset location.

The Finance Ghost: Yeah, it makes a lot of sense. It’s super interesting stuff, and the whole idea of these balanced funds is you’ve got diversification baked in, right? It’s not just an equity exposure, because even when you take pure equity exposure, yes, you might be buying a nice broad market index, but you’re then missing out almost entirely on certain other asset classes, like credit funds, for example. Yes, you might get some property, but not necessarily in the same way you’re not getting any bonds, emerging markets or otherwise. So that’s the idea here, right, is it’s kind of just this instant diversification? One monthly debit order does it all essentially in terms of a long-term exposure.

Now, obviously it’s a bit more complicated than that and it’s not necessarily suitable for everyone and all the usual disclaimers, but that is kind of the concept of a balanced fund. But it also means it’s a bit less risky, right? So, this kind of goes back to the advice around, or again, rule of thumb, around at different points in your life, you should be taking on different levels of risk. Would it be accurate to say that balanced funds, generally speaking, less risk, a little bit less return potentially over time, so maybe more suitable for older investors. Or is it not quite that simple?

Nico Katzke: I wouldn’t say it’s necessarily that simple. Over the short-term, specifically, it depends what your investment term is. Over the shorter-term, certainly there’s more risk balance in place. So, for example, balance funds, credit instruments that are added to the portfolio that allow or at least give you some downside protection. That certainly is the case. But look, it is definitely more sort of moderate to aggressive portfolio positioning because of the high asset allocation to equities, so there is a risk component involved. But yeah, I think ultimately what we’re trying to achieve is a more balanced spreading of risk so that you’re not concentrated to a single asset class. It goes back to my earlier point. Sometimes we think that ETF investing is easy and it certainly is. It’s low-cost, it’s easy access, it’s easy to understand. But how do you pick which ETFs to hold in a blend?

That’s oftentimes a very daunting exercise for investors, retail investors, specifically unsophisticated investors that apply their trade elsewhere than in financial markets but just want to invest. So this offers them a blended approach in an ETF wrapper where it’s low cost, transparent, but diversifies and spreads your risk quite nicely. So from that perspective, it definitely achieves that.

We can never guarantee that there is no risk. There is always risk to the downside. But over time that potential for downside risk pays you upside premium. If you’re able to stomach that over the medium to long term, that’s where you see the value unlock.

The Finance Ghost: Yeah, and it’s going to have exposure to things like cycles as well. Obviously interest rates play a huge role. Anyone who didn’t observe that over the pandemic, you really missed out on, I think, a great learning opportunity. Obviously you can still go and just see it, just go and draw charts of things, just go and read up about it. Because we really had this wonderful course, or I like to say crash course, but then it always feels like a bit of a lame pun because there was some crashing – but we really did have that in terms of the effect of interest rates and very sharp moves. I think before that, you go and learn about what interest rates do, but it takes a lot longer. There’s a cut here or a hike there and everyone tracks the metrics and it slowly happens over time. Over the pandemic we saw the fast-forward version of that and now hopefully we’re in a rate cutting cycle. The rates don’t seem to be getting cut quite as quickly as I would have liked, necessarily, but I think a balanced fund like this is probably not a terrible idea in a rate cutting cycle because there’s some stuff in there that benefits from lower interest rates, like property, like infrastructure, for example, long-dated cash flows where the present value goes up if rates are lower. Would you say that’s a fairly accurate view on this thing?

Nico Katzke: Yeah, I think so. Look, it’s also important to keep in mind that when you’re buying this ETF, you’re effectively – it’s an off the shelf solution that bakes in all our thinking and all our processes and design into this portfolio. So certainly the higher probability of entering a rate cutting cycle factored into our thinking and we position it to take advantage of some of the asset classes that will have tailwinds in this rate cutting cycle.

Now, maybe just in terms of what you are investing in through the Satrix Global Balanced Fund of Funds ETF, let me just unpack that a bit. 45% of your exposure will track the MSCI World Equity Index, which is comprised of more than a thousand of the largest developed market companies. Of this, around 70% will be US equity exposure, so you do get a lot of exposure to the US tech sector. We still think there’s a lot of upside potential remaining there. It’s only a fool that will bet against the US when it comes to where growth and innovation resides.

We’re also tracking the MSCI Emerging Markets index at 10%, so that’s where you get exposure to China, India and other economies that are kind of on the frontier of development, so diversifying that.

It’s in total 55% exposure to global equities, strictly global equity exposure. But you also are positioned to take advantage of the rate cutting cycle through several other asset classes that we include.

The first is you get exposure to real assets in the form of property and infrastructure, which are both leveraged plays that stand to benefit should interest rates decline, right? Think of the infrastructure index as really a collection of listed companies that apply their trade in the construction or servicing of infrastructure projects. It’s not that you’re investing in infrastructure itself, like buying roads and bridges, but rather the companies that service those. This index has traditionally offered a sensible risk balance to global equities and should also experience tailwinds in this rate cutting cycle due to their leveraged balance sheet type structure. Now, property indices likewise benefit from rate cuts as this directly reduces their debt servicing costs, which typically is a large cost component to property companies.

And then of course there’s also 15% exposure to aggregate global fixed income indices, as well as a 5% exposure to inflation linkers and a 5% exposure to global credit. All of these asset classes, so the real assets as well as the fixed income and credit asset classes, stand to benefit from a rate cutting cycle. There should be good upside for investors there if the Fed continues cutting rates, which we believe is quite likely going forward.

The Finance Ghost: Obviously these underlying exposures are rebalancing over time. You talk about the MSCI Equity Index and that’s rebalancing over time. This will also rebalance right back to those original weightings in the strategic asset allocation, the SAA. Is that right? Is that basically how this is going to work over time?

Nico Katzke: So we do allow the weights to drift over a six month period before we rebalance it back to its target SAA. This allows some momentum drifting to occur and reduces overall trading costs as well. You don’t want to rebalance back every month and incur those costs. We just allow some drifting to happen every six months.

Then every two years, we do a full review of the strategic asset location, just to give you comfort that we are considering how the investment environment and landscape has shaped over the past few years and then decide whether we want to incorporate changes in terms of distributions. This will also occur quarterly, meaning that dividends and other sources of income that are accrued through the quarter will be paid out to investors in full at the end of each quarter.

Now, many investors then opt to reinvest these dividends back into the fund, which over time makes a big difference in terms of compounding returns. Another benefit of this fund’s structure is that it benefits from the dividend withholding tax agreement that we have with the US. This makes up a large proportion of the fund, right? The impact of this dividend withholding tax benefit that we accrue to investors is material over a long period. It’s in fact not always obvious that a global fund structure can provide this benefit to investors. So all of this we take into account and really build a very efficient balanced fund structure for investors.

The Finance Ghost: Yeah, because there’s some cleverness here. It’s not the norm that an equity ETF lands up in a global balanced fund like this. The plumbing behind it is quite interesting. I know you have an international partner on this. It might be quite good to just understand a little bit more about that for those who are considering this and understanding why this is actually quite an unusual thing. Maybe the clue is in the name – the fund of funds name?

Nico Katzke: Yes. So the ETF feeds into seven different global ETFs from both Amundi and iShares, the latter being the largest index tracker in the world and a team that we worked quite closely with to launch several feeder ETF structures locally. Now these seven different global ETFs that we feed into proxy for the different asset classes that we gain exposure to.

So, there’s also a 5% exposure to a US dollar liquidity fund that offers a highly liquid alternative to holding pure cash in the portfolio. It just gives you that little bit of upside even on the cash portion. Now each of these ETFs that we feed into are large, very liquid funds that we access efficiently and at a very low cost point. The benefit of this is then passed on to end-investors, making it a really compelling fund offering for local investors. While fund of funds is in the name, as you mentioned, it is ultimately, really if you think about it, it’s a fund of ETF funds, meaning you don’t have the typical higher cost structure associated with a fund of funds structure.

And we’re also of course well experienced in structuring feeder ETFs. We’ve launched several in the past and they’ve worked very well for investors. So this puts us in a great position to actually wrap all of this together in a single ETF that trades on the JSE in rand and that investors can get easy access to, knowing that the underlying building blocks are tracked and traded in the most effective way.

The Finance Ghost: Yeah, speaking of that, what do the costs come in at on this fund? Where do you actually come out?

Nico Katzke: It comes out at a very, very attractive cost point – 0.35% management fee per annum. I mean this is phenomenally low-cost if you think about it for accessing global funds. Ultimately, the Satrix Global Balanced Fund of Funds ETF, the mouthful name, is a new index tracking balanced fund that will be listing on the JSE as an ETF on the 4th of December.

The IPO closes now on the 25th of November, this coming Monday. And for those investors participating in it, you will actually incur no brokerage fees or experience any bid offer slippage if you participate in the IPO. Now this can be actually quite material, so it’s a great opportunity for you to get access at the net asset value and get your exposure at the lowest cost point effectively.

Ultimately this ETF constitutes a global balanced exposure, like I mentioned, that trades in rand on the JSE and gives local investors a great hedge to rand weakness and also the opportunity to participate in offshore markets in a very low-cost structure. Think of it, gone are the days where investors had to incur great effort and expense to get offshore exposure. The problems with repatriating proceeds, onerous tax considerations made it an option only for those that had scale and expensive advice and a very big incentive to gain offshore exposure. Your typical run-of-the-mill retail investor in the past really didn’t have easy, low-cost access to global asset classes. Today this has changed completely. You can now access a diversified blend of global asset classes in a single ETF that has underlying index building blocks that are well diversified and serve a very specific, well-thought-through purpose in your portfolio.

Maybe to take a step back from this and just think about what this means, investors might find this interesting just from that perspective to say there’s no minimums to this. You can invest a thousand rand, get a diversified blend of offshore exposure, really easy to do trades very simply, you know what you get from our products, it’s low-cost index trackers – I mean, it’s just a great offering that we’re bringing to the market.

The Finance Ghost: Yeah, and the fees are such an important part of it. By the time you work out just how many fees are paid in the typical investment structure, the financial advisor, the product provider, the active management fees etc. it’s a good few hundred basis points a year sometimes.

And this is basically that entire solution – yes, minus the bespoke advice, but that bespoke advice needs to be worth like 200 basis points a year just to make up the gap. Now that’s not to say you shouldn’t speak to a financial advisor, most people should. But I think this is a really compelling offering and maybe what you should ask your financial advisor is why don’t you have exposure to something like this at 35 basis points a year as opposed to some of the far more expensive ways to be invested in the market? Because this is a very elegant way to just have that balanced exposure in one instrument, one shot.

That’s a good question for your financial advisor. And some of the answers back might be kind of awkward because there’s going to be some interesting stuff there around who that financial advisor is incentivised by etc. I won’t go into it more than that. Ask these questions, I think that’s the point that we just want to get across here. It’s your money at the end of the day and it should be your decision what happens with it long term. Take the advice, take it into account, but just understand all the fees involved because I must say, at 35 basis points, this thing is pretty compelling. It takes all of your expertise in strategic asset allocation, it’s tradable, it’s liquid, you can do it in your tax-free savings account up to your limits every year, and then you can just do it normally. It’s just a really good product.

This is why I love partnering with you guys and doing these podcasts is because it’s very easy to believe in what you’re doing. Because I know the impact that Satrix had on my own investment journey with these ETFs and the impact it can have on others. Especially when I speak to people taking their first steps in the market, it’s always very daunting. They just don’t know where to start. They know they need to save, but they don’t know where to start. Products like these are great for that. They really are.

Nico Katzke: It solves a lot of problems. And to your point, the cost structure is incredibly compelling. It might not seem like a big difference, you know, 0.35% versus let’s say 1.5%. But if you compound that over time over a 10- or 15-year period, it’s unbelievable how big the impact of fees are and how it compounds against you. It’s unbelievable. We’ve ran some numbers where I promise you, your listeners won’t believe how big an impact it has over a 20-year period, an additional 1% fees. It’s unbelievable. You’re right.

And you mentioned advisors. I would always caveat that there are certain types of advice that are not generic, that’s very specific to an investor. For example, tax structures, doing what’s based in terms of retirement planning, taxation and the like. You absolutely have to get professional advice for those decisions. But when it comes to discretionary investment, you know, just putting aside R10,000 every month to build a nest egg – absolutely, if you’re paying a lot for getting very simple advice, or that advice is obscure, or you don’t know exactly what you’re investing in, ask those questions, right? Take control of your own destiny when it comes to investing and building wealth. But when it comes to those bespoke decisions, like I mentioned taxes and those things, maybe get good advice there. But always, always know what you pay and know what you get. That’s a principle that if you apply over time, I promise you there’s gold at the end of the road.

The Finance Ghost: Absolutely, Nico. I think that’s a great place to finish off and I fully agree with everything you said there. Thank you once again for making time for this. We’ll get this podcast out in time for people to participate in the IPO, should they so choose, and with the benefits that you mentioned earlier.

But in case you don’t get there in time, this thing will be listed on the market. It’s like any other ETF, you can buy it anytime you want. You can go check out the Satrix Investment platforms to do it that way as well.

So Nico, thank you very much for your time in a very busy week. Appreciate it and we’ll do another one of these soon.

Nico Katzke: Thank you for your time and for the listeners as well. Cheers.

GHOST BITES (ADvTECH | City Lodge | Crookes Brothers | Investec | Lewis | Mr Price | Purple | Reunert | Southern Sun | Spar)

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ADvTECH invests in Ethiopia (JSE: ADH)

The group hopes for further success in Africa

ADvTECH understands how to put together a moat in the education space. In Africa, they are focused on strong international schools in appealing regions. To add to this strategy, they are acquiring a 100% stake in Flipper International School in Addis Ababa.

It may have a rather odd name, but this group been around since 1998. In 2018, the founders sold an 85% stake to Tana Africa Capital and the Saham Group, so it’s already had a period of private equity ownership. This is encouraging.

With Ethiopia has a high growth region that is experiencing urbanisation, the business case for a school like this is obvious. ADvTECH will pay $7.5 million for the group (around R135 million), adding five schools and 3,000 students to its portfolio.


City Lodge is prioritising margin over vacancy rates (JSE: CLH)

Ultimately, revenue is what pays the bill, not lower vacancy rates

It’s easy to get to a 100% occupancy rate: just sell the rooms for next to nothing and make a huge loss in the process. It therefore has to hold true that the right measure of success is revenue, rather than just the vacancy rate. City Lodge has to balance the volume vs. pricing considerations and has been putting more priority on pricing lately, which speaks to the quality of the offering.

The GNU-inspired upswing didn’t exactly lead to an immediate improvement in occupancy rates, but at least they are seeing some positive signs in corporate and government travel. Occupancy for the three months to September came in at 58% vs. 62% in the prior year. Although September itself was decent, October came in lower (57% vs. 63% last year) and so did November (58% vs. 59%).

Thankfully, the group average room rate was up 11% over two months, so the dip in vacancy isn’t a major problem. As they are now lapping a period that included the food and beverage offering, they haven’t seen such a big year-on-year jump in that part of the business.

So, in this period, it’s a story of gross margin improvements being realised as pricing moved higher.

In Botswana, Mozambique and Namibia, it doesn’t sound like things are going very well in this election year. Occupancy rates are struggling. They don’t separately disclose the South African occupancy rate, so this could be where some of the group pressure is coming from.

City Lodge’s balance sheet is in a net positive cash position and they’ve used R60 million of their R600 million loan facility for capital refurbishment projects and to pay the final 2024 dividend. The refurbishments will be ready ahead of the festive period and should help boost pricing.

The sale of City Lodge Hotel Katherine Street is unconditional and the hotel will stop operating in mid-December, ahead of an expected transfer in the third quarter of the financial year.

It all comes down to the peak season, with City Lodge’s effort to appeal to more than just business travellers hopefully bearing fruit.


Biological asset value movements impacted Crookes Brothers (JSE: CKS)

This volatility is a feature of agricultural businesses

Crookes Brothers released results for the six months to September. Although revenue was up 6% and operating profit before biological assets increased 9%, the extent of fair value movements in the biological assets means that HEPS took a nasty knock of 30%.

Over two interim periods, the biological assets experienced a total negative fair value move of more than R110 million. For reference, total headline earnings over the same period were R83 million. Without those fair value movements, profit would’ve been much higher. Welcome to the world of agriculture.

As if you need any further reminders of the risks of agriculture, Crookes Brothers hoped for an excellent banana segment contribution in the second half of the year. Alas, a severe storm in Mpumalanga in October ruined that party for the time being.


Investec manages mid-single digit growth (JSE: INP)

Return on equity has dipped though

Investec has released results for the six months to September. You have to keep in mind that the UK isn’t directly comparable to South Africa in terms of risk factors, so percentage growth rates also aren’t directly comparable. We have also had a most unusual period in which the rand has strengthened, so that negatively impacts rand hedges like Investec.

With that context, growth in adjusted operating profit of 7.6% (in GBP) is respectable, even if it only translates to 4.4% in rands! This was assisted by solid cost control, with the cost-to-income ratio improving from 53.3% to 50.8%. The same can’t be said for the credit loss ratio, which jumped from 32bps to 42bps – near the top of the through-the-cycle range of 25bps to 45bps.

Return on Equity (ROE) at 13.9% has decreased from 14.6%, but this level means the group is still on track for guidance. One of the impacts has been the completion of the combination of Investec’s wealth management business in the UK with Rathbones, creating a higher average equity base.

The interim dividend of 16.5 pence per share is up 6.4% and represents a payout ratio of 41.7%.

The full-year guidance is for ROE of 14% and a credit loss ratio near the top of the target range of 25bps to 45bps. South Africa sits at the lower end (15bps to 35bps) while the UK & Other is between 50bps and 60bps.


A truly excellent period at Lewis (JSE: LEW)

Here’s a casual 50% increase in the interim dividend to make people smile

Lewis has just reported a fantastic set of numbers for the six months to September. Merchandise sales were up 8.5%, so there’s a strong improvement here in consumer discretionary spending. Group revenue was up 13.6% and gross profit margin increased to 40.9%, so Lewis knows how to turn footfall into money.

They also know how to collect that money, with an improvement in satisfactory paid accounts and the debtors book up by 16.9%.

All of this adds up to a jump in operating profit of 54.1%, with operating profit margin up from 14.2% to 20.2%. HEPS increased by a lovely 49.1% and the icing on this cake is that the interim dividend is up 50%.

What’s not to love?

Even UFO, the broken part of the Lewis story, managed to swing from an operating loss of R9.8 million to profit of R1.5 million.

Inventory levels are up 17.8%. As you’ll see in Mr Price further down, this seems to be a trend at retailers who have learnt from the shipping delays last year. Stock availability at this time of year is far more important than being too cute on working capital ratios. Although this puts some pressure on borrowings, a decent trading period in the next couple of months should fix that.

Lewis has also quietly done a bolt-on acquisition, buying Real Beds (a chain of 13 stores) to increase its presence in the bedding base set market. There are also four stores in Botswana being acquired.

And of course, as Lewis is famous for, there were share buybacks – in this case, R43.9 million worth of buybacks at an average of R47 per share. Since 2017, Lewis has repurchased shares for R1.3 billion at an average price of R35.96 per share. The current share price is just below R80!


Mr Price keeps expanding into a tough market (JSE: MRP)

Despite weak same-store sales, the market just can’t get enough

The Mr Price share price is up nearly 90% this year. Despite pretty tough results across the local clothing retailers (including Mr Price on a same-store basis), the market is rewarding Mr Price for a store expansion strategy that is adding plenty of new revenue to the group. I guess the assumption is that the market share wins at this stage will pay off in future.

For the 26 weeks to 28 September, Mr Price total revenue increased by 5.2%. They gained 60 basis points of market share. Comparable store sales increased just 0.4%, hence my comments on this result being driven almost entirely by store rollouts.

Importantly, gross margin has expanded by 110 basis points to 39.7%. Combined with the revenue growth, you would therefore expect a big jump in HEPS, right?

Wrong. HEPS increased by 7.3%. Not bad by any means, but not a thrilling enough income statement to drive these kind of share price moves. In fact, operating margin actually went backwards by 10 basis points!

In terms of useful insights into consumers, I must point out the Homeware segment seeing comparable sales turn positive. This talks to some improvement in discretionary spending among consumers.

A focus area for Mr Price is the telecoms business, with Mr Price Cellular and Powercell achieving sales growth of 13.1%. Although this feels like such an old-school opportunity, they are clearly getting it right!

Heading into the festive season, there are two further encouraging metrics. The first is that inventory levels were up 13.6% at the end of the period, so they are well stocked and therefore not exposed to the incompetence at Transnet. The other metric is that sales momentum has been strong recently, with sales up 11.5% in October and 14.7% in the first two weeks of November.

My bearishness on Mr Price this year has been 100% wrong in terms of the share price performance. Before I’m convinced that these share price gains are sustainable, I would want to see comparable store sales running at a level that drives operating margin expansion. Until then, it’s easy to just keep driving revenue growth through capex.


Purple swings into the green (JSE: PPE)

The share price has made significant gains recently

Purple Group has released a trading statement for the year ended August. The big news is that the headline loss is a thing of the past. They’ve swung from a headline loss per share of 2.05 cents to positive HEPS of between 1.68 cents and 1.85 cents.

Given all that Purple has achieved for investors in this country, it’s really lovely to see this outcome for them.

The rights offer in mid-2023 at 81 cents per share has finally paid off for those who took a punt, with the share price now at 114 cents. Still, it remains a country mile off the levels in the pandemic that I avoided due to valuation silliness.

Underneath all the share price volatility, there’s a good business that is moving forward. I must however point out that it is currently on a P/E multiple in the mid-60s!


Reunert achieved growth despite the solar drag (JSE: RLO)

This is the importance of diversification

Reunert has released results for the year ended September. Revenue increased just 5% and operating profit was up 7%. Thankfully, HEPS was a bit more exciting at 10% growth and the interim dividend increased 11% as the payout ratio moved higher.

Reunert has a bunch of different businesses, with the battery storage business currently dealing with the nightmare of the sudden disappearance of load shedding. An entire industry was built around making up for Eskom’s shortcomings and suddenly that demand washed away, leaving the market in disarray.

Thankfully, other areas of the group did well, like the electrical engineering segment and its operating profit growth of 20%. On the ICT side, they were impacted by supply chain delays thanks to Transnet’s ports, so operating profit was up by only 7% – still a decent outcome.

In Applied Electronics, operating profit was down 16% despite a strong performance by the defence cluster within that business. The renewable cluster saw revenue drop due to the solar energy business moving from a subsidiary to a 50% joint venture (i.e. revenue is no longer 100% consolidated). Of course, the operating profit impact there is from ugly losses in the battery storage business, a problem that has nothing to do with accounting changes.

Thankfully, despite Eskom’s miraculous recovery, Reunert’s diversification has led to decent growth and a positive outlook for most of the businesses.

In management news, CFO Nick Thomson is retiring and the group is looking for a successor.


Southern Sun has the perfect income statement shape (JSE: SSU)

A modest revenue uptick has driven a big jump in earnings

Southern Sun has reported a 6% increase in income for the six months to September 2024. That doesn’t sound like much, yet it ends up being a 35% increase in HEPS!

The first trick lies in operating leverage, or the benefit of having fixed costs in the system and decent cost control. You can see this by considering EBITDAR (a hotel industry standard – the “R” isn’t a typo) increasing by 10%, a higher percentage than the move in income. This means that margin improved.

Then, we get to financial leverage, with a reduction in finance costs helping to turbocharge the increase in EBITDAR into an even better increase in HEPS. The group now describes its debt levels as being sustainable.

Southern Sun has a strong tilt towards group and leisure travellers and appeals to international travellers as well, which is why I still prefer it to City Lodge. This broader appeal comes through in the occupancy rate, sitting at 58.9% for the six months (up 260 basis points) and an impressive 68.2% in September. The average room rate is up 3%, so they’ve gone the route of being more competitive on price and driving occupancies higher, with a solid net outcome.

Surprisingly, revenue in Gauteng grew by 18% – even faster than the Western Cape at 14%! As for KZN, that suffered a decline of 8%. There are some other problem areas in the group, like the disappointing performance of the Mozambique hotels based on security concerns for travellers.

The share price is up roughly 70% this year, so that’s a terrific performance for investors.


Spar is moving in the right direction (JSE: SPP)

They need to keep this momentum going

Spar has released a trading statement for the year ended September. If you focus only on continuing operations (i.e. excluding Poland), then HEPS increased by between 6% and 16%.

That’s a move in the right direction, despite some ongoing headaches like lower turnover growth in the second half of the year and the SAP system “upgrade” (ahem) in KZN still not working 100% properly. These issues were mitigated by cost containment and considerable reductions in group net debt.

The group is in the process of giving away – I mean selling – the Poland business. It will go down as one of the most disastrous corporate deals in South African history. Including those operations, HEPS moved higher by between 16% and 26%, so there’s even some improvement in Poland.

Spar has had to take on more debt to get the Poland deal across the line. The bridge facility for this is included in Spar’s net debt of R9.1 billion. This makes it quite impressive that debt has come down from R11.1 billion.

Results are scheduled for release on 28 November.


Nibbles:

  • Director dealings:
    • There are some chunky sales by prescribed officers of Thungela (JSE: TGA). Three such officers sold shares with an aggregate value of R17.8 million.
    • The chairman of Raubex (JSE: RBX) took advantage of recent share price strength to sell shares worth R15.3 million.
    • Acting through Titan Premier Investments, Christo Wiese has bought another R7.5 million worth of shares in Brait (JSE: BAT).
    • A non-executive director of BHP (JSE: BHG) bought shares (well, American Depository Shares to be exact) worth $52k.
    • A director of Momentum (JSE: MTM) purchased shares worth R300k.
    • An associate of a director of The Foschini Group (JSE: TFG) sold shares worth R27.4k.
  • Small cap Mahube Infrastructure (JSE: MHB) is highly illiquid, so don’t get too excited by a 20.5% move in a single day after the release of a trading statement. The bid-offer spread can get very wide on these stocks. Still, HEPS for the six months to August has increased by between 34.5% and 48.5%, so those results will be worth a look when they are released on 29 November.
  • Thanks to S&P Ratings revising the outlook on South Africa’s sovereign debt from stable to positive, Capitec (JSE: CPI) and Nedbank (JSE: NED) have enjoyed a similar change in outlook. In reality, all the banks will benefit if the South African credit rating improves, leading to a lower cost of borrowing and prosperity for everyone involved.
  • Adding to the news earlier this week about a sale of property, Delta Property Fund (JSE: DLT) has agreed to sell Thuto House in Bloemfontein for R16 million. Unlike the other sale which was on auction and at a price far below the valuation of the property, this sale seems to have been done in the traditional way and achieved a price R700k above the last valuation. Inch by inch, they are slowly making progress at Delta.
  • If you’re interested in South32 (JSE: S32), then you might want to check out the presentation from the recent Sierra Gorda site visit. It’s available here.
  • There’s some hope for Conduit Capital’s (JSE: CND) disposal of CRIH and CLL. After the planned sale of these businesses to TMM Holdings was blocked by the Prudential Authority, as application to the Financial Services Tribunal led to a decision to set aside the ruling of the Prudential Authority and refer the deal back to them for consideration at an internal meeting scheduled for February 2025. The wheels turn very, very slowly.

Who’s doing what this week in the South African M&A space?

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In a move to further expand its footprint in the private education space, ADvTECH has announced the acquisition of Ethiopian school group Flipper International School based in Addis Ababa. The acquisition will add five schools and an additional 3,000 students to the Group’s international portfolio. The US$7,5 million deal will be funded internally by ADvTECH.

Tiger Brands is to sell its baby wellbeing business, a non-core asset, for R605 million (plus inventories for a further R25 million) to an unnamed, unrelated third party. The purchaser, who is a leading SA manufacturer of home and personal care products servicing the FMCG market in a number of countries, who will also acquire a select list of non-core brands withing the Home and Personal Care business for a total consideration of R135 million. Again, inventories of approximately R25 million will be added to this price tag.

Sanlam and Ninety One have announced a long-term relationship (15 years) whereby Sanlam will appoint Ninety one as its primary active investment manager for single-managed local and global products. As part of the transaction, Ninety One will acquire the Sanlam Investment Management business (SIM), a wholly owned subsidiary of Sanlam Investment Holdings in which the Sanlam Group holds an effective 65.6% interest.  Ninety One will be appointed as the permanent investment manager to manage assets for Sanlam Investment UK and Sanlam will serve as an anchor investor of Ninety One’s international private and specialist credit strategies. Sanlam Group will receive c.12.3% equity stake in Ninety One through a combination of Ninety One Ltd and plc shares, the issue of which will require Ninety One shareholder approval.

Lesaka Technologies is to acquire the prepaid electricity submetering and payments business Recharger. The business enables landlords to collect payment for utilities usage from tenants in advance, eliminating the need to manage billing and collections. Recharger will sit within the Enterprise pillar of Lesaka’s Merchant Division and will act as an entry point into the local private utilities space and provide an alternative payment offering. Lesaka will pay R507 million for the business in two tranches which will be settled through a combination of R332 million in cash and R175 million in Lesaka shares. In addition, Lesaka will contribute R42 million to Recharger to repay a shareholder loan. The company expects the transaction to be concluded at an EV/EBITDA multiple of approximately 6.0 times.

Novus announced this week that its on-market acquisition of Mustek shares had resulted in it breaching (together with related parties) the 35% shareholding level requiring it to make a mandatory offer to Mustek shareholders in terms of the local takeover rules. This comes hot on the heels of its acquisition of Media24 assets announced in October. For those Mustek shareholders wishing to exit their investment in the ICT player, Novus has offered three options – cash of R13 per Mustek share, a combination of R7 cash plus one Novus share, or no cash and two Novus shares for those shareholders wanting to swap into Novus. The Novus share price closed at R7.85 prior to the announcement. Novus has received irrevocable undertakings from shareholders holding 20.29% of Mustek’s shares that they will reject the mandatory offer. The intention of Novus is not to delist Mustek and has offered a maximum of R335 million in relation to the mandatory offer.

Labat Africa will acquire a 75.55% interest in Classic International Trading from the current shareholder for a consideration of R16,28 million to be settled through the issue of 232,5 million Labat shares at an issue price of R0.07 per share. The deal represents an opportunity for Labat Technology to diversify and strengthen its portfolio which has faced challenges.

Barloworld has released a further cautionary, this time with details of a potential offer by a consortium of investors one of whom is the current Group CEO. While there is no firm intention at this stage, the board of directors has constituted an independent board to engage with the consortium and ensure that enhanced governance protocols are in place. Falcon Holdings, a wholly owned subsidiary of Zahid Group headquartered in Saudi Arabia is an effective 18.9% shareholder in Barloworld, forms part of the consortium of investors.

Globe Trade Centre has acquired a portfolio of residential assets in Germany from Peach Property Group and LFH Portfolio Acquico for c.€448 million.

Delta Property Fund has announced the disposal of two properties this week. It has disposed of the Beacon Hill building in the Buffalo Industrial area in King Williams Town to Chipcor Developers for a cash consideration of R13 million and will sell Thuto House in Bloemfontein to Nomnga Investments for R16 million.

The family-owned wine estate Van Loveren has acquired the Survivor Wines brand with a range of 12 distinct wines. The estate intends to acquire the Overhex Wines cellar and facilities, strategically located close to Van Loveren’s bottling operations.

Weekly corporate finance activity by SA exchange-listed companies

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Fairvest has acquired 193,754,733 Dipula Income Fund shares from Coronation Asset Management. Fairvest will, in consideration for these shares, issue 203,733,518 Fairvest B shares. The acquisition of the Dipula shares is in line with its strategy to become a retail-only REIT servicing low-income communities in SA. Following the acquisition, Fairvest has a 26.3% stake in Dipula, making it its largest shareholder.

Orion Minerals has issued 1,741,070 shares for A$24,375 as payment of Directors Fees in lieu of cash settlement.

Boxer Retail has issued an order book update and offer price guidance ahead of its 28 November 2024 listing, advising that the order book is multiple times covered at the top end of the offer price range of R54 per share. At this price the issue of up to 157,407,408 offer shares is expected representing c.34.4% of the issued share capital immediately following admission (with overallotment option exercised in full).

Diversified healthcare REIT Assura plc listed on the JSE on 21 November 2024 taking a secondary listing on the Main Board. The UK REIT listed 3,250,608,887 shares, via the fast-tracking process, with a market capitalisation of c.£1,3 billion.

In October, Anheuser-Busch InBev announced a US$2 billion share buy-back programme to be executed within the next 12 months which will result in the repurchase of c.31,7 million shares. The shares acquired will be kept as treasury shares to fulfil future share delivery commitments under the group’s stock ownership plans. During the period 13 – 15, November 2024, the group repurchased 605,446 shares for €32,2 million.

The Old Mutual Board is of the view that the share is at a discount to its intrinsic value and that a share repurchase programme will deliver longer term incremental value to shareholders. Commencing 21 November 2024, the group will acquire up to 81 million shares equivalent to R1 billion.

Hammerson plc continued with its programme to purchase its ordinary shares up to a maximum consideration of £140 million. The sole purpose of the buyback programme is to reduce the company’s share capital. This week the company repurchased 797,123 shares at an average price per share of 280 pence.

South32 announced in its annual financial statements released in August that it would increase its capital management programme by US$200 million, to be returned via an on-market share buy-back. This week 1,134,521 shares were repurchased at an aggregate cost of A$4,17 million.

In line with its share buyback programme announced in March, British American Tobacco this week repurchased a further 444,785 shares at an average price of £28.63 per share for an aggregate £12,73 million.

Prosus and Naspers continued with their open-ended share repurchase programmes. During the period 11 – 15, November 2024, a further 4,192,009 Prosus shares were repurchased for an aggregate €159,21 million and a further 309,395 Naspers shares for a total consideration of R1,27 billion.

Five companies issued profit warnings this week: Trematon Capital Investments, Barloworld, Crookes Brothers, Efora Energy and RMB Holdings.

During the week, three companies issued cautionary notices: Sail Mining, Salungano and Vunani.

Equity Capital Markets in South Africa: A resurgent force

The South African Equity Capital Markets (ECM) landscape has witnessed a notable resurgence in 2024, marked by increased deal activity and a positive re-rating of equity prices. This has been primarily driven by a confluence of factors, including improving macroeconomic conditions, increased earnings expectations, favourable investor sentiment, and a pipeline of promising equity capital raises.

Despite the several challenges posed by the COVID-19 pandemic, high inflation and interest rates, loadshedding and grey listing, the JSE has rebounded in 2024, with the JSE All Share index delivering an absolute total return of 15.9% to 30 September. In 2024, the market has seen a surge in ECM activity, with 13 deals to 8 October totaling R33bn, and a pipeline of further deals expected before December close. This marks a significant improvement from previous years, with deal values in 2023, 2022 and 2021 reaching approximately R11bn, R33bn and R24bn, respectively.

The upward re-rating of South African equities has created favourable conditions for both primary and secondary market activity. The MSCI South Africa index reported >15% absolute total return performance in USD for the last three months, making it one of the top performing world markets over the last quarter. At 12.5x 12-month forward consensus earnings, JSE All Share valuations are now only 5% below the 10-year average. Companies seeking to raise growth capital are leveraging the improved valuations to issue new shares. In addition, companies holding significant stakes in listed entities are finding opportunities to monetise their positions through secondary sell-downs.

Several factors have contributed to the positive trajectory of the South African equity market:

  • Interest rate easing: The Reserve Bank of South Africa (SARB) has recently adopted a relatively dovish stance, with a 25-basis point interest rate cut announced in September 2024. Market expectations point towards further reductions in November and the first quarter of 2025. The SARB cycle has often overlapped with the Federal Reserve (Fed) moves and, on average, cuts from the Fed have coincided with positive price performance from SA assets and equities generally outperforming bonds. We expect further positive price performance for South African assets, including equities.
  • Declining food inflation: Food inflation, which reached a peak of 14% year-on-year in March 2023, has been on a downward trend, falling to 4.6% year-on-year in June 2024. Lower food inflation benefits low-income households and can stimulate real consumption growth.
  • Corporate cost-cutting: Cost discipline and a general focus on shrinking overheads had been necessitated over the past five years in the face of the pandemic, followed by significant loadshedding. Combining top-line recovery with a leaner cost base supports an attractive earnings recovery story.
  • Investor confidence and reform agenda: The outcome of the 2024 South African elections, which strengthened the reform agenda, has significantly boosted investor confidence. The newly formed Government of National Unity (GNU) has been well-received, contributing to the positive re-rating of equities and the reduction of a risk premium associated with potential political uncertainty. Still to come, it would appear, is a structural rebasing of the improved outlook for earnings and the country’s growth and debt dynamics.
  • Increased weighting in MSCI Emerging Markets Index: South Africa’s weight in the MSCI Emerging Markets index has declined over the years. However, a positive reform agenda, coupled with improved GDP and earnings growth, could lead to an increase in the weighting. This could attract significant inflows from international investors.

In this year, we have already seen the listings of WeBuyCars, Rainbow, Cilo Cybin and AltVest, with Boxer expected to list before the end of the calendar year.

There is also a promising pipeline of new listings in South Africa. Companies such as Coca Cola Beverages Africa, African Bank and Tyme Bank have publicly expressed their intentions to list in the near to medium-term. Furthermore, equity capital raises through placements and rights offers have been active, with a total of R34bn raised this year to date. Further activity is expected in the fourth quarter of this year as valuations continue to provide a compelling opportunity for equity capital raising.

Notwithstanding the favourable backdrop supporting the current uptick in equity capital markets activity, investors participating in primary equity issuance still require a clear and well-articulated use of proceeds and a generally attractive investment case before participating in these transactions. Investors want to clearly understand how the equity capital raised will be utilised to ultimately drive growth and company outperformance to create value for shareholders. Consequently, the optimal capital raise mechanism and structure for a company looking to raise equity capital would need to take specific shareholder objectives into account, while optimising the company’s capital structure and maximising value for all stakeholders.

The South African equity capital markets have experienced a resurgence in 2024, driven by favourable macroeconomic conditions, investor confidence, and a robust pipeline of equity capital market activity. We expect this trend to continue into the near future.

Dave Sinclair, James Rowson and Masechaba Makhura, Equity Capital Markets team | Rand Merchant Bank

This article first appeared in DealMakers, SA’s quarterly M&A publication.

Local conditions create value for private equity

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The general consensus is that the outlook for private equity (PE) is optimistic, although still requiring careful monitoring and prudent weighing of any opportunities. The recent uptick in sentiment is due to a number of factors, including the formation of the Government of National Unity. The drop in the interest rates and a more stable electricity supply have added positive sentiment to the market and, along with other positive factors, will drive economic growth.

Value retention and growth remain key measurements within any business, and private equity firms always look not only to achieve value through an acquisition, but also to ensure organic growth within the business to demonstrate subsequent value. To enable this, many businesses concentrate specifically on core deliverables, and strive to become the leader in their industry by carving out a niche for themselves and doing what they focus on really, really well. In this way, they not only retain current customers, but are then also able to gain market share from lacklustre competitors.

Other opportunities to foster growth include dealing with any structural issues within a business. Often, management teams require real discipline and rigour to see growth and increase value. We are often sounding boards for the team, as an external viewpoint can bring clarity for those within the business. While we can share learnings from other companies within our portfolio and previous experiences in various aspects of the business, our core expertise lies in assisting with further expansion through acquisitions, additional liquidity, and capital structure decisions.

South African PE takes a positive view to investing in local companies, and this is particularly useful for those businesses seeking to expand through bolt-on acquisitions. This method to consolidate and build value within a business means that by centralising administration, complementary cross selling and implementing operational best-practices can rapidly grow EBITDA and margins, assuming the right cultural and strategic fit of the businesses.

The 2024 Deloitte Africa Private Equity Confidence Survey found that agriculture, manufacturing, financial services and healthcare remain core sectors of interest, aligning with Africa’s growing needs and offering potential for both financial returns and positive social impact. We have invested in a number of these sectors and found that, in order to grow, businesses are required not only to deliver, but also to include additional value-add services. Key success factors include reducing the commoditisation of a business’ products or services to differentiate themselves from competitors in the market, and ensuring a sustainable business model which is defensive against external market and competitive factors. Africa is expected to continue to be the world’s second fastest-growing region in 2024, after Asia. Africa’s real GDP growth is forecast to increase from 3.7% in 2023 to 4.1% in 2025 and 2026.

In the current market, meaningful returns may require a slow and steady approach, combining calculated risk and tenacity. Longer investment cycles have become the norm within the PE sector. We have always seen ourselves as longer-term investors, open to long-term partnerships, particularly appreciating the challenges of the local economy.

In this regard, an additional misperception may perhaps lurk in the market: that PE is somehow resolute on the short term, and bound to a limited period in which to realise an investment. Whilst the very nature of PE requires investments to be made with an exit in mind, our approach ensures that a business is able to develop until the time is right to sell. This allows us to focus on growth and exit investments at the most opportune time for all stakeholders, without time pressure.

While the next 12 months are uncertain in terms of how political and environmental risks will continue to impact the global and local economies, both established businesses and entrepreneurs can seek the best possible outcomes by utilising private equity as a vehicle for growth. The SAVCA 2024 Private Equity Industry Survey reported that, overall, resilience and growth shown by portfolio companies during a period with difficult macro-economic conditions is proof of the PE sector’s ability to actively support their portfolio company management teams and, in numerous cases, enable them to achieve rapid EBITDA growth.

We see more opportunities in the market and believe that private equity can continue to enable local businesses to grow, whether organically or through an M&A process. But finding the right partner – now that is key to ensure success.

Liz Kolobe is a Partner | Agile Capital

African M&A Analysis Q1- Q3 2024 (excluding South Africa)

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The mergers and acquisitions (M&A) environment has shown signs of recovery, particularly in the past three months of this year, but deal flow remains below the level seen in 2023. This is attributed largely to global economic pressures; particularly rising interest rates, which have stymied leveraged buyouts and reduced the availability of debt financing.

The value of deal activity for the 2024 year to end-September, as captured by DealMakers AFRICA, was down 10% year-on-year at US$7,25 billion off 282 deals, compared with 2023’s figure of $8 billion (388 deals). Deal activity was highest in West Africa (83 deals) and, more specifically, in Nigeria (48 deals). However, it is Egypt that leads the tables with a total of 52 deals recorded for the period, of which 41 are private equity (PE) transactions.

Oil and gas continue to be pillars for M&A, especially given the strategic importance of natural resources to African economies. However, renewable energy projects are gaining momentum as sustainability becomes a more pressing concern for both local governments and international investors. Of the top 10 deals by value recorded by DealMakers AFRICA so far this year, the disposal by Shell of its assets in Nigeria to a consortium tops the table at US$2,4 billion.

PE has, in the past, been an influential though not dominant force driving M&A activity. In 2022, PE accounted for 57% of deal flow across the continent, though this has fallen due to the economic environment. But as the high interest rates that initially deterred private equity are expected to gradually ease, increased activity is expected on this front, with the focus on sectors where PE typically plays a strong role, such as consumer goods, healthcare, education and logistics.

According to the latest World Bank forecasts, sub-Saharan GDP is expected to expand by 3.9% next year, though serious risks from armed conflict and climate events like droughts and floods could impact this figure.

M&A activity in Africa in 2025 is expected to be shaped by both recovery and strategic positioning. Global trends reflect a more nuanced and strategic approach to M&A, focusing on long-term resilience and alignment with technological and environmental imperatives. As economic and financial conditions evolve, PE’s contribution to M&A could transform, leading to greater deal-making in sectors that capitalise on Africa’s unique growth opportunities.

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Who’s doing what in the African M&A and debt financing space?

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Beltone Venture Capital and Citadel International have backed Egyptian furniture e-commerce platform ariika with US$3 million in Series A extension funding. The funding will be used to accelerate local and regional growth.

Winock Solar, a Nigerian company specialising in solar and energy efficient lease-to-own equipment for micro and small businesses, has secured a US$1,6 million equity investment from Acumen Fund and All On Partnerships for Energy Access.

Morocco’s luxury tea and infusion packing solutions firm, Imperium Holding, has secured a €25 million investment from Proparco, IFU and SI Advisers. The funding will support the company’s expansion plans which are projected to create an additional 933 jobs.

Impact investor, Incofin has invested €3 million in Ugandan social enterprise, SPOUTS International. SPOUTS manufactures and distributes ceramic water filters designed to eliminate the need to boil water using firewood and charcoal, thus conserving natural resources, decreasing household costs and lowering carbon emissions.

Egypt-based private equity firm Ezdehar Management has acquired the remaining 40% interest in Zahran Market Z.A.E. Ezdehar acquired a majority stake in the supermarket chain back in 2022, partnering with the Zahran family to strengthen the company’s management capabilities and systems to drive growth and expansion. Financial terms of the deal were not disclosed.

In a move to further expand its footprint in the private education space, South African group ADvTECH has announced the acquisition of Ethiopian school group Flipper International School based in Addis Ababa. The acquisition will add five schools and an additional 3,000 students to the Group’s international portfolio. The US$7,5 million deal will be funded internally by ADvTECH.

Access Bank UK announced the acquisition of a majority stake in the fourth-largest bank in Mauritius, Afrasia Bank. The deal is part of Access Bank UK’s expansion plans in Africa and strengthening its global footprint. The company did not disclose the value of the deal.

Amenli, an Egyptian insurtech founded in 2020, has secured a US$2,3 million funding round led by the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) Venture Capital arm and includes a follow-on investment by Y Combinator.

IMIZI Rum, a Rwandan distillery and rum brand, has closed a US$500,000 pre-seed round from angel investors in North American, London, Singapore and Rwanda. The funding will be used to expand production, support distribution growth outside of Rwanda and establish a brand house in Kigali.

Voltron Capital, Zrosk, WEAV Capital, MasterCard Foundation, Kaleo Ventures and a group of angel investors have backed Lingawa in a pre-seed funding raise of US$1,1m. The Nigerian edtech, formerly known as TopStar, will use the funding to develop an interactive app, expand the language offerings and recruit talent.

Evolving M&A practices in Africa: how SPACS offer a compelling alternative

In recent years, the use of Special Purpose Acquisition Companies (SPACs) has gained traction globally as an alternative route for companies to go public, bypassing the traditional IPO process. However, SPACs have yet to gain widespread popularity in Africa’s M&A landscape. Despite this, the potential for SPACs in Africa is significant, driven by the growing need for capital in sectors like fintech, infrastructure, and natural resources, alongside a surge in private equity activity and cross-border deals. This article explores how SPACs are structured in Africa, their advantages and challenges, and recent real-world examples to illustrate their potential impact on the M&A space.

SPACs are publicly listed shell companies created specifically to merge with private companies, offering a faster and more flexible alternative to traditional IPOs. They are typically sponsored by a group of investors or operators, referred to as “sponsors,” who aim to acquire an existing business within a specified timeframe, usually 18 to 24 months. If a suitable target is not found, the SPAC liquidates, and the capital is returned to shareholders.

In South Africa, the Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE) has been proactive in accommodating SPACs as part of its offering, outlining specific requirements for these entities:

• No commercial operations at inception: SPACs listed on the JSE cannot have any existing business operations or assets before listing. Their sole mandate is to raise capital and find a suitable acquisition target.

• Capital requirements: For a Main Board listing, the SPAC must raise a minimum of R500 million, while an AltX listing (Alternative Exchange for smaller companies) requires at least R50 million.

• Timeline for acquisitions: The JSE mandates that SPACs must complete an acquisition within 24 months of listing. If no deal is completed within this period, the SPAC is subject to suspension and eventual delisting.

• Investor safeguards: Capital raised by the SPAC must be held in escrow. If an acquisition is not completed within the stipulated time, funds are returned to the investors, ensuring a degree of capital protection.

• Management skin in the game: Directors of the SPAC are required to invest at least 5% of the capital and are restricted from selling their shares for six months post-acquisition. This requirement aligns the management’s interests with those of the investors.

• Lower costs and faster listings: Given that SPACs start without operational assets, they often face fewer disclosure requirements compared to traditional IPOs, reducing listing costs and shortening the time to market.

This framework offers a structured route for SPACs to attract capital while protecting investors, making it an appealing option for both local and international investors interested in the African market.

• Access to capital: SPACs provide African companies with an opportunity to access international capital without navigating the complexities of traditional IPOs.

• Mitigating IPO market volatility: Given the continent’s market volatility and political risks, SPACs offer a more controlled environment for raising capital.

• Enhanced deal certainty: SPACs are designed with a clear acquisition objective, which provides a degree of certainty to target companies and stakeholders, making them attractive for businesses seeking growth or exit strategies.

• As reported in September 2023, Zeder Investments’ subsidiary, Zeder Financial Services announced the sale of its 92.98% stake in Capespan Group, excluding its pome fruit primary production operations and the Novo fruit packhouse, for R511,39 million. The buyer, 3 Sisters, was a special purpose acquisition vehicle financed by Agrarius Agri Value Chain and managed by 27four Investment Managers. (DealMakers, Who’s Doing What, 21 September 2023)

• In December 2023, 10X Capital Venture Acquisition Corp. II (10X II) (NASDAQ), a publicly traded special purpose acquisition company sponsored by 10X Capital, announced the successful completion of its merger with African Agriculture, Inc. This global food security company, which runs a commercial-scale alfalfa farm in Africa, is now listed for trading on the Nasdaq. African Agriculture is the first pure-play U.S.-listed agricultural company to operate on the African continent. (Latham & Watkins LLP Announcement, 7 December 2023)

• On 1 August 2024, Catalyst Partners (a private equity firm focused on the MENA region) became the first to submit a request to the Egyptian Financial Regulatory Authority to establish a SPAC under the name, Catalyst Partners Middle East. (Grant Thornton, Could SPACs help Egypt’s IPO market take off?, 16 September 2024)

• Regulatory uncertainty: Different African countries have varying regulations governing SPACs, creating a complex legal environment for cross-border transactions. Harmonising SPAC regulations across key markets could unlock more potential for these vehicles.

• Limited market depth: Many African markets lack the deep secondary equity markets required to support SPAC liquidity, making it difficult for investors to exit their positions.

• Political and economic instability: Political instability and economic fluctuations can add additional layers of complexity and risk to SPAC transactions, deterring some investors.

Despite the current challenges, SPACs hold significant potential in Africa. They could become a key instrument in consolidating industries such as technology, renewable energy, and real estate. As African capital markets mature and more sophisticated regulatory frameworks are developed, SPACs are likely to see increased adoption.

With growing investor interest and local capital markets adapting to accommodate such innovative structures, Africa is poised to become a fertile ground for SPAC-led M&A activity. For dealmakers and investors alike, SPACs present a compelling opportunity to tap into the continent’s untapped potential.

Vivien Chaplin is a Director and Phetha Mchunu an Associate in Corporate & Commercial | CDH

This article first appeared in DealMakers AFRICA, the Continent’s quarterly M&A publication.
www.dealmakersafrica.com

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