Thursday, April 3, 2025
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Ghost Bites (Efora Energy | Kibo Energy | Pick n Pay | Tharisa)

The Finance Ghost
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Ghost Bites (Efora Energy | Kibo Energy | Pick n Pay | Tharisa)

Efora Energy: suspended, but buying property (JSE: EEL)

This stock hasn’t traded since 2020

The only reason I’m including anything related to this story is that you may find it interesting that a company that is suspended from trading can still carry on with its day-to-day business. The JSE has the power to suspend a listing that doesn’t meet the continuing obligations of being listed (like financial reporting), but it doesn’t have the power to prevent the company from doing corporate actions – provided those listings requirements are still adhered to.

Even though the shares of Efora Energy haven’t traded on the JSE since 2020, the company can still go ahead with a Category 2 transaction to acquire a property worth R3.8 million. Interestingly, the property is owned by Labat Africa!

The property supports Efora’s wholesale strategy by providing storage in a key industrial node that is close to major oil companies.

A major funder of Kibo has converted exposure to shares (JSE: KBO)

This is highly dilutive for shareholders but gives the company more breathing room

Kibo Energy announced that a whopping 500,000,000 new shares were issued to RiverFort Global Opportunities PCC Limited, based on conversion rights attached to a debt facility. This is interesting, considering that Kibo is trading at R0.01 per share i.e. as low as it can go. The company seems to spend most of its time at the moment trying to persuade a potential joint venture partner to figure out how internet banking works so that payment can be made!

Following this conversion, RiverFort will have a stake representing 11.68% of shares in issue. This is a substantial switch from debt to equity. I think the positive signal attached to this more than outweighs the dilution at this stage. Kibo is priced like a binary outcome and any reduction of debt can only help.

Sean Summers makes his leadership changes at Pick n Pay (JSE: PIK)

The old guard is out and some major internal promotions have been made

Pick n Pay’s share price has carried on this year where it left off in 2023. The share price is already down 6% in 2024, taking the 12-month drop to around 65%. It’s very ugly for the retailer right now.

In desperation, they dusted off Sean Summers in the hope that he can bring some bull market magic back to the retailer. This is a major changing of the guard, which comes with various leadership changes in the structure.

The man entrusted with returning Pick n Pay Retail to profitability is Dallas Langman. He was running the Rest of Africa division, so he knows all about running businesses in tough situations. This kind of get-the-hands-dirty operator is probably the right choice.

There are various other changes in the structure. Most of all, I’m pleased to see Pick n Pay Clothing getting recognised at executive level. That business is a little gem and needs to be given as much capital as possible to grow.

Will we finally see an improvement in Pick n Pay? I ran a poll on Twitter / X to see what people think. The poll hadn’t finished running by the time this was published, but the provisional results tell a story of a market with no consensus on the direction of this stock:

Tharisa worked hard over the festive period (JSE: THA)

The three months to December 2023 saw a significant improvement in production

The quarter ended December 2023 represents the first quarter of the 2024 financial year for Tharisa, so don’t get confused when it gets referred to as Q1’24 even though it was at the end of the 2023 calendar year.

In this period, production of PGMs increased vs. the immediately preceding quarter (Q4’23) and record chrome output was achieved. The PGM basket price moved just 1% higher in dollar terms and the average chrome price was steady.

Despite the improved production story, net cash fell from $126.6 million to $94.9 million.

Production guidance for FY24 remains between 145 koz and 155koz for PGMs and between 1.7 Mt and 1.8 Mt of chrome concentrates. It would also help if PGM prices continuing ticking upwards from here, giving some relief to a battered sector.

Little Bites:

  • Director dealings:
    • An associate of a director of Huge Group (JSE: HUG) has bought shares worth R85k.

Ghost Bites (Kibo Energy | Life Healthcare | Lighthouse | Telkom | Texton)

The Finance Ghost
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Ghost Bites (Kibo Energy | Life Healthcare | Lighthouse | Telkom | Texton)

Kibo is still chasing the joint venture money (JSE: KBO)

The excuses from the joint venture partner are just embarrassing now

I feel for Kibo Energy in this situation. The company isn’t exactly hot property right now, so opportunities to raise capital (either at listed or subsidiary level) are few and far between. When they do come up, one hopes that the counterparty acts properly and professionally. Sadly, that really isn’t turning out to be the case for Mast Energy Developments (MED), the subsidiary of Kibo that is trying to put together a joint venture.

The partner is Proventure Holdings. It’s not a great sign that I can’t get onto their website because their security certificate has expired. It’s also not a great sign that the payment for the joint venture still hasn’t happened, despite several extensions and promises.

The latest excuse? “A lack of coordination and administrative difficulties on the side of Proventure over the festive period” – do me a favour.

What kind of joint venture partner can’t make a payment over the festive period after agreeing to that deadline?

The CEO of Proventure is supposedly travelling to London soon to finalise the deal. It’s not impossible that Proventure will attempt some last-minute changes to the deal. After all, what other reason can there be for non-payment and a meeting in London? Messy stuff.

Life Healthcare meets all conditions to sell Alliance Medical Group (JSE: LHC)

The transaction is expected to conclude at the end of January 2024

A deal is never done until all the conditions are met and the money is in the bank. It’s rare, but theoretically any deal can fall over until that point. This is why shareholders (and the advisors getting paid a success fee) breathe a large collective sigh of relief when a transaction becomes “unconditional” in accordance with its terms – in other words, when all conditions have been met.

Although the disposal by Life Healthcare of Alliance Medical Group is expected to close by the end of this month, investors will have to be patient for a special dividend. Offshore debt must be repaid, transaction costs must be settled and Life also wants to hang onto some of the proceeds for general corporate growth purposes.

The “majority of the net proceeds” will be returned to shareholders, but at this stage we don’t know exactly how much or when this will happen.

Lighthouse sells another big chunk of Hammerson (JSE: LTE | JSE: HMN)

The capital will be redeployed into direct property opportunities

The market doesn’t have much love for investment structures that see listed companies holding shares in other listed companies. This inevitably leads to higher discounts to net asset value (NAV) per share, as investors (quite rightly) don’t see the point of incurring the costs of the Lighthouse structure in the middle when they can hold Hammerson directly.

I therefore see it as a positive that Lighthouse has sold off R651 million worth of shares in Hammerson. The proceeds will be used to pursue yield-accretive direct property opportunities. Direct opportunities are what investors are looking for, as they can’t access those opportunities themselves.

Telkom one step closer to perhaps selling Swiftnet (JSE: TKG)

There’s a renewed cautionary and a further milestone that has been reached

Back in November 2023, Telkom told the market that it was in exclusive negotiations with a B-BBEE consortium regarding the potential sale of Swiftnet. This masts and towers business has been for sale for quite some time and it would help Telkom greatly to get the deal done.

Although nothing at this stage is remotely certain, it is good news that the potential buyer has completed its confirmatory due diligence. Although the announcement doesn’t say it, this suggests that the parties will now try to firm up the commercial terms before a firm deal is announced.

Again, there’s every chance that absolutely nothing happens here, so don’t get ahead of yourself.

Texton closes its rights offer (JSE: TEX)

The underwriters didn’t get much in the end

The structure of the recent Texton rights offer made it incredibly punitive for shareholders not to follow their rights. Some investors dug out their last coins between the couch pillows to make sure they didn’t get painfully diluted, with 94% of shareholders following their rights. This left only 6% of the issued shares for the underwriters.

We need to dig deeper though, as the shares are tightly held by insiders and these are (quite rightly) shown as existing shareholders. Of the 36,378,030 shares subscribed for by existing shareholders, a whopping 34,796,946 went to three directors.

The uptake among external shareholders was nowhere near 94%, that’s for sure.

Little Bites:

  • Director dealings:
    • An associate of a director of Huge Group (JSE: HUG) has bought shares worth just over R1k. If the associate in question wasn’t a hedge fund, I would make jokes about Janu-worry budgets for buying shares!

Why is Keith Haring everywhere right now?

Dominique Olivier
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Why is Keith Haring everywhere right now?

Keith Haring’s career as a commercial artist is absolutely booming at the moment, which would be a big deal for him if he hadn’t died 34 years ago. Even if you don’t recognise his name, you’re sure to recognise his artwork, which has made it onto shirts, mugs, cellphone covers and pretty much every other printable surface in the last three years. This begs the question: why Keith, and why now?

As an artist myself, I’m never one to put down the success of another artist. But I will admit that I range between confusion and mild irritation whenever I spot a child wearing a sweatshirt emblazoned with one of Keith Haring’s ultra-recognisable designs. It’s not that I don’t think Haring deserves the recognition. As an artist who used his unique talents and popularity to bring awareness to the AIDS crisis in the 90s, he absolutely deserves all the praise and attention. I just don’t understand why this is happening more than three decades after his death. 

Source: Keith Haring Foundation

First, let’s talk about the man and his work

Keith Haring played a pivotal role in the vibrant New York art scene of the 1980s, leaving an indelible mark with his colourful creations and iconic motifs. Beyond the graphic visual allure of his works, Haring’s art served as a powerful response to the pressing social and political issues of his time.

Haring directed his creative energy towards addressing crucial events like the battle against apartheid, the AIDS epidemic, and the issue of drug abuse. As an openly gay artist, he didn’t shy away from representing the struggles faced by the LGBTQ community, championing the cause of gay rights through his art.

Keith Haring Foundation

Inspired by the raw and expressive nature of graffiti artists, Haring transformed empty poster spaces in New York’s subway stations into canvases for his chalk drawings. His motivation was to break down barriers and make art an accessible experience for everyone. These impromptu works, visible to passersby on a daily basis, allowed Haring to engage with a diverse audience, fostering a connection between art and the public that transcended traditional gallery spaces.

Make no mistake: there is an inherent product-mindedness in Haring’s work. His dedication to the notion of accessible art really paved the way for his designs ending up on t-shirts – in fact, this is an idea that Haring embraced throughout his career. His “Pop Shop” opened its doors in 1986  in the Soho neighbourhood of Manhattan, NYC. The curated selection of products at The Pop Shop went beyond conventional art offerings to include t-shirts and novelty items adorned with Haring’s unmistakable motifs. This innovative approach to merchandising not only made Haring’s art tangible but also turned everyday objects into canvases for his bold and dynamic visual language.

Keith Haring Foundation

Keith Haring dedicated himself to raising awareness about the AIDS epidemic, a cause that became deeply personal when he received his own diagnosis in 1988. In the wake of his diagnosis, Haring took a decisive step by establishing The Keith Haring Foundation just a year later. This foundation became a beacon of support, providing crucial funding and resources for AIDS research, charities, and educational initiatives. Keith Haring succumbed to AIDS-related complications on February 16, 1990, at the age of 31. Since then, his body of work has been managed by the Keith Haring Foundation. 

Haring: the new Kahlo

The Haring phenomenon isn’t the first example of a prominent (dead) artist becoming hyper-commercialised to this scale. Just a few years ago we were all still firmly in the grip of Fridamania, with images of Mexican painter Frida Kahlo slapped on everything from throw pillows to coasters, like this one from The Cushion Mall:

The height of the global Frida obsession is estimated to have been around 2017 –  63 years after her death – but the commercial remnants of that time can still be found in the corners of gift shops across the globe. From vials of nail polish and lip glosses to Kahlo-themed cafés, restaurants, and street murals that dot urban landscapes, the prevalence of her image reached new heights. Even seemingly mundane items like bars of soap and posters became canvases for celebrating Kahlo’s distinctive features: her hair braided into a regal crown adorned with colourful flowers, her unapologetic monobrow, and the piercing intensity of her defiant gaze.

Like Haring, Kahlo used her work to speak to particular issues that were close to her heart, such as feminism and her Mexican heritage. Adriana Zavala, an esteemed scholar specialising in Latin American art at Tufts University and the curator behind Frida Kahlo’s 2015 exhibition at the New York Botanical Garden, offers a thought-provoking perspective on the pervasive presence of Kahlo paraphernalia. According to Zavala, the widespread availability and consumption of Kahlo-themed merchandise has, over the course of three decades, led to a dilution in the nuanced understanding of the Mexican artist’s profound contribution to art history.

Image courtesy of WikiArt

After all, how many of the people decorating their homes with Frida fridge magnets and coffee mugs are aware of her artistic journey and the messages that she expounded through her work? In the same vein, are the parents who are dressing their toddlers in Keith Haring onesies aware of how much work he did on major social issues?

So, who’s getting paid for this?

Every time Mickey Mouse has been printed on a sweatshirt, Disney got a cut of the profits of its sale through licensing fees. Interestingly, the original image of Mickey Mouse has finally entered the public domain in 2024! Leaving that aside, how does licensing work when the original creator of an image is deceased? 

In the case of Keith Haring, licensing is handled by his foundation. Under US law, Haring’s copyright to his own work lasts 70 years post-mortem. His foundation will continue to handle all licensing (and collect all fees) for the next 36 years. For Frida Kahlo, things are a bit more complicated, as her copyright is held under Mexican law, which protects the copyright of artists who died before 1956 (like Kahlo) for only 25 years post-mortem. Kahlo also died intestate (without a will) and had no children, which meant that her intellectual property was automatically handed over to the closest living heir, which happened to be her niece, Isolda Pinedo Kahlo. 

If I had to detail the intricacies of the legal battles that ensued over Kahlo’s intellectual property after those 25 years elapsed, I’d have to write another 100 pages. The long and the short is that a corporation was started to manage Kahlo’s works, and there has been a long and arduous tussle between said corporation and her family for years. If you want to really get into it, you can read on here. 

Of course, we’re assuming that every corner store that sells a Frida Kahlo or Keith Haring t-shirt is, in fact, doing the right thing and paying licensing fees where they are due. Since the internet exists and images can be accessed for free by anyone who knows how to work a computer mouse, the far more likely truth is that many small-time manufacturers are flying under the radar and getting their prints for free. 

Keith Haring Foundation

As for my original question…

I wish I could tell you that my extensive research on this topic has led me to some interesting and insightful reason behind the current Haringmania. But alas, my question remains largely unanswered. I don’t know why the global hive mind has settled on Haring in particular as the artist of the season. Is the team at his Foundation just really good at securing licensing deals? That may be so – but then again, why so many different brands, and why now, an arbitrary 34 years after his death?

I turn to you and your theories, gentle reader. Have you noticed a surge in Haring imagery around you recently? Why do you think that may be? Let me hear your best guesses in the comments below. 

About the author:

Dominique Olivier is a fine arts graduate who recently learnt what HEPS means. Although she’s really enjoying learning about the markets, she still doesn’t regret studying art instead.

She brings her love of storytelling and trivia to Ghost Mail, with The Finance Ghost adding a sprinkling of investment knowledge to her work.

Dominique is a freelance writer at Wordy Girl Writes and can be reached on LinkedIn here.

Letter from the Editor: From Cape to Clarens

The Finance Ghost
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Letter from the Editor: From Cape to Clarens

Yes, even ghosts sometimes need a break. I thought I would share my experience on a recent trip from Cape Town to Clarens (and back again).

There were animal skulls on the table at one of the padstals we visited. It was kinda cool, but I can’t really explain why. Perhaps the Karoo does a better job than big cities of understanding that death is the other side of the coin to life?

Either that, or I’m just not used to sharing my space with the ghost of a sheep. This place is all about ghosts at the moment.

If you were a ghost looking to haunt something, then you could do worse than some of the potholes in regional roads in the Free State. Some of them are practically two bedroom, one bathroom apartments. Years of government neglect have taken their toll, making it very difficult (and arguably just silly) to try and take alternative routes through the province unless you drive an impressive bakkie. There are no such problems in the Western Cape, where the goal is to jump off the N1 as quickly as possible and get onto the regional roads.

In many ways, a roadtrip is the very best way to get to grips with the state of play in the country and the megatrends shaping everything from property prices to investment in different industries. It’s also a terrific way to fall in love with South Africa all over again.

Rangers. Rangers everywhere.

Ford must be selling these things faster than they can build them. The new Ranger is everywhere. I must admit that they look fabulous, even when the driver has decided to overtake from five cars back in the queue behind the truck.

Aah yes, the trucks. There are far too many of them. We can thank the state of national infrastructure for that as well, as the railways are a sad and sorry situation and road freight has happily picked up the slack.

A trip to Matjiesfontein (blink and you will literally miss it) is a reminder of a time in this country when the railways really mattered. This tiny outpost was built around the railway. Now, all you’ll find there is an ancient signal box and a man on the platform singing Die Trein na Matjiesfontein on repeat. Between that and the bartender at the hotel bar singing Ou Ryperd on the piano (accompanied by a dire sounding cough), it was quite the musical experience in that rather odd (but charming) place.

Those two songs have become quite the appropriate pairing, as there are about as many horses these days as there are working trains. Perhaps 2024 will bring some improvement at Transnet. We can only dream.

Not all small towns are lekker

I’m a car enthusiast of note and the proud owner of a 1969 Alfa Romeo that has done its fair share of roadtrips, even if it wasn’t the noble steed of choice for this particular trip. That honour went to my girlfriend’s VW T-Cross, a very cleverly designed piece of kit indeed. If you’re looking for a fun family car, you should have that on your shortlist.

Anyway, I’ve concluded that small towns are a lot like classic cars. You see, there’s a major difference between a classic car and an old car. One is collectible and the other is scrap metal. The reasons vary, but generally an old car needed to be something special to transcend into classic status.

Similarly, small towns range on a spectrum from filthy disasters through to an artistic paradise nestled in the mountains. There are many small towns that are unappealing or simply ignored. There are those that are loved and cherished, attracting tourists from across the country (and sometimes even overseas). The difference comes down to many things, including the history of the town. It might also come down to how pretty the inevitable church is, with Graaff-Reinet making a practically unbeatable case for itself in that regard:

A lot of it seems to rest on whether anyone has bothered to invest in the place and create a reason to go there. If you want to understand more about these small town economies and how to pick a good one for your weekend house, I enjoyed reading Moving to the Platteland by Julienne du Toit and Chris Marais. You’ll find it at pretty much any bookstore in these towns. Reading it accompanied by a cold gin and tonic in a small town is my recommended approach.

When it comes to lekker towns, Clarens is very tough to beat. Close to the Lesotho border and with good road access (provided you do your research on the correct route), the town benefits from its relative proximity to Gauteng and other major areas. The place works because it does a roaring trade on weekends, not just in school holidays. Being close to Bethlehem (a pretty large town) also makes it easier for the restaurants and shops to be well-stocked. Visiting Clarens is like going to an art district just outside a city. It’s a gorgeous place and well worth a trip, although it’s a proper drive from Cape Town and you need to plan accordingly.

We now head to the other end of the spectrum: towns with less-than-lekker stories. At the risk of referencing failing infrastructure again, you can do some reading on Noupoort (near Graaff-Reinet) and how the demise of railway usage has had a negative socio-economic impact on the town. I could see that pretty clearly while driving through it. Also, if you have a strong stomach, do some research on some of the allegations that were historically levelled against the Noupoort Christian Care Centre – a rehab centre that seems to market itself as a place for last chances. It’s quite the story.

Padstals: another hit and miss

If you’re the type of person who hates taking a chance, then the typical forecourt complex on major highways will sort you out for lunch. If there’s a Wimpy, it can even sort you out for breakfast as well. These forecourts (and the inevitable Famous Brands franchise to be found there) are entrenched in South African roadtrip culture.

The alternative, of course, is the padstal. Apart from the seemingly endless assortment of preserved fruits and interesting jams (does anyone really buy that stuff?), you’ll probably find a medium-sized bird aviary featuring an assortment of doves.

I wish I was joking.

Why, for the love of all things, do people in the Free State enjoy collecting doves? There’s an entire decision tree you have to go through to arrive at a decision to keep doves, including saying no to obvious options like budgies.

If you’re lucky, you’ll also find a clean bathroom and a small place to buy a warm meal and a coffee. The quality varies drastically, even though the price generally doesn’t. There was one absolute stand-out on this trip: Karoo Padstal just outside Richmond on the N1.

Have the lamb roosterkoek and thank me later.

On the topic of lamb

Frontiers Restaurant in Graaff-Reinet has been open for 7 months. This is according to the friendly lady who assisted our table. Frontiers is a gorgeous little spot that brings more than just a touch of class to one of my favourite roadtrip towns.

Fascinatingly, they are fully booked for dinner and have been for weeks now. We could only get a table as we went very early to make allowance for the smallest traveller on this trip, who very much enjoyed sharing her mother’s lamb ragu fettuccini with every element of her clothing. It’s wonderful to see a business like this doing well and creating much-needed jobs. In these towns, it’s quite easy to see the direct impact of investment and the resultant job creation. It’s much harder to see this in practice in big cities.

There are too many mozzies on this stoep

No amount of Peaceful Sleep is improving the situation as I try to write this article under duress from the mosquito population of Graaff-Reinet. Perhaps the delicious lamb shank I ate a short while ago has made me smell irresistible to the little you-know-whats.

There’s a sunset walk through the historic streets coming up, providing the perfect environment for me to talk about everything and nothing with the person I most want to do that with. It’s been a magical trip that has been filled with reminders of what really matters in life.

It’s time to close the laptop, avoid the mosquitos and make some more memories.

My advice to you? Get in your car and experience South Africa in the very best way possible. Every small town has a story. Pretty much every padstal has a working bathroom. Most of the roads starting with “N” even have tar on them.

But most importantly, everyone you meet along the way will dish out those smiles that South Africans are famous for.

We cannot possibly ignore the problems in this country – and small towns seem to highlight them better than anywhere else – but what a place this is. Here’s to all the opportunities and experiences that 2024 will bring!

Ghost Stories Ep27: What to do with those festive savings (with Siyabulela Nomoyi of Satrix)

The Finance Ghost
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Ghost Stories Ep27: What to do with those festive savings (with Siyabulela Nomoyi of Satrix)

We are now in December, which is generally a month of spending rather than investing. Of course, it shouldn’t be that way if you have the correct financial plan in place, a topic that Siyabulela Nomoyi (Quantitative Portfolio Manager at Satrix) joined me to discuss.

We couldn’t resist the opportunity to dig into ETFs as well!

In the final Ghost Stories podcast with Satrix for 2023, topics covered included:

  • The right way to think about saving and investing, particularly in the context of December and January.
  • The benefit of tax-free savings accounts and how interesting they can be with ETFs.
  • The range of equity ETFs, from vanilla products through to factor ETFs.
  • Local vs. offshore and how to play this heading into 2024 as a potentially volatile year in South Africa.
  • The performance of bond ETFs in 2023.
  • Real estate and infrastructure ETFs.
  • The difference between ETF and unit trust structures.

And just for fun, I also asked Siya what he would choose as his ETF exposure going into 2024.

There’s so much in here, underpinned by Satrix’s commitment to South African investor education. To find out more about SatrixNOW, visit this link>>>

Listen to the show here:

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Disclosure

Satrix Investments (Pty) Ltd is an approved FSP in term of the Financial Advisory and Intermediary Services Act (FAIS). The information does not constitute advice as contemplated in FAIS. Use or rely on this information at your own risk. Consult your Financial Adviser before making an investment decision.

While every effort has been made to ensure the reasonableness and accuracy of the information contained in this podcast (“the information”), the FSP’s, its shareholders, subsidiaries, clients, agents, officers and employees do not make any representations or warranties regarding the accuracy or suitability of the information and shall not be held responsible and disclaims all liability for any loss, liability and damage whatsoever suffered as a result of or which may be attributable, directly or indirectly, to any use of or reliance upon the information.

Money, Grede and business: a Kardashian success story

Dominique Olivier
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Money, Grede and business: a Kardashian success story

Despite what the name of their infamous reality TV series suggests, it’s actually quite hard to keep up with the Kardashians. With 280 episodes, a combined total of 1 billion followers and 15 businesses between them, this is clearly not the average family. Love them or hate them, you can’t deny that the Kardashians know how to monetise.

I remember reading a headline a while back that said something along the lines of “The Final Episode of Keeping Up With the Kardashians”. Turns out that wasn’t really the end of this reality TV dynasty (they rebranded to “The Kardashians” when they made the move from The E! Network to Hulu), but for a short moment, I still wondered what the world would be like without the so-called “first family” on our screens. 

This led to me doing some digging into the Kardashian success story, and as per usual, I learned something that could be of use to business owners. As it turns out, there’s no better place to learn the power of personal branding than in the Kardashians’ stable of businesses. 

“You’re doing great, sweetie!”

The question that often gets asked when people are discussing the Kardashians is how this family in particular managed to ingrain themselves so successfully in the global subconscious. I’ve broken it down for you with the help of this interview from the Los Angeles Times. 

It all escalated in 2007, which was a big year for the Kardashian-Jenner family. After moving the family into a sprawling home in Hidden Hills, California, matriarch Kris Jenner entered into talks with Ryan Seacrest to create a television series documenting their “everyday” lives. The Kardashians already had a small amount of fame at this point; Kris had been married to Robert Kardashian, who became very visible as part of OJ Simpson’s legal team between 1994 and 1995. 

Although Kris and Robert had separated in 1991 already, they had both been close friends with OJ and his wife, Nicole Brown Smith, and the Kardashian clan were often spotted in court during the famous trial. Kris married Olympic athlete and motivational speaker Bruce Jenner in 1991, shortly after her divorce was finalised. Bruce’s sports star status, the family’s combined wealth as well as the memorable surname Kardashian were the ingredients in a recipe for small-scale fame. 

Ryan Seacrest sent a camera crew over to film a day’s worth of footage of the Kardashian-Jenners – a blended family made up of 5 daughters and 1 son – at home in their California mansion and was instantly enamoured with the results. Within 48 hours, the first season of the show was sold and Keeping Up With The Kardashians came into being. 

But the show itself wasn’t the catalyst that led to superstardom. Those of you who know your internet history will also remember 2007 as the year that Kim Kardashian’s sex tape with her rapper boyfriend Ray J was leaked, making her a household name practically overnight. This helped to catapult the Kardashian family name even further into the spotlight, with Kim becoming the focus of public fascination. 

While the Kardashian-Jenners have ardently denied that the leaked tape was a publicity stunt of their own design, that didn’t stop them from doubling down on Kim’s moment and milking it for everything that it was worth. As those who work in public relations will attest, there’s no such thing as bad press. In their TV show’s first season, Kris famously told Kim, “You’re doing great, sweetie!” as her daughter posed nude in a Playboy shoot.

While this seems like an odd course of action for a mother to take, from a business point of view, it makes perfect sense. As a brand, Kim was getting serious traction in 2007, and Kris was standing ready to fan those flames, doing exactly what anyone would expect a top-tier marketing executive to do. 

If you’ve got it, flaunt it

The Kardashian business journey began with the establishment of retail stores, including Smooch, a children’s clothing store that operated for six years until its closure in 2009, and Dash, a women’s clothing store launched in California in 2006.

While the family has seen remarkable success with current ventures like Kim’s Skims shapewear brand (valued at a cool $3.2 billion), and Khloe’s size-inclusive denim brand Good American (boasting $200 million in sales), their entrepreneurial path has not been without its share of setbacks. Notable among these are the short-lived PerfectSkin skincare line and the Kardashian Kard prepaid debit card, both lasting only one year in 2010. Additionally, joint business ventures, such as the Kardashian Kollection at Sears (2011-2015) and Kardashian Beauty (2012-2016), reflect a mix of both triumphs and challenges in the Kardashian business portfolio.

Kim is probably the one who has done the most dabbling in various businesses over the last two decades, including the “Kim Kardashian: Hollywood” video game (2014 – present), which was acquired by Glu Mobile in a $2.4 billion deal in 2021. Additionally, her emoticons, known as “Kimojis” (2015 – 2018), achieved notable success, reportedly generating $1 million per minute on the day of launch! In addition to overseeing her shapewear and skincare brands, Kim is now delving into the realm of venture capital with her latest initiative, the private equity firm SKKY Partners. Launched in September 2022, this venture aims to invest in and develop projects within the realms of hospitality, media, and luxury businesses.

Another member of the clan who is well-known for her business ventures is the youngest Jenner. At the age of 18, Kylie Jenner ventured into the makeup industry. The inception of her makeup brand, Kylie Cosmetics, was triggered by the media frenzy surrounding her use of lip filler. In response, Kylie strategically embraced the attention and launched the brand with an initial focus on three “lip kits,” each comprising a liquid lipstick paired with a lip liner. The demand for these products was unprecedented, resulting in immediate sell-outs and launching Kylie Cosmetics into the spotlight.

The success story continued as the brand diversified its offerings, expanding beyond lip kits to include a range of makeup products, such as eyeshadow palettes. Kylie’s entrepreneurial spirit further led her to enter the skincare and baby markets with the introduction of Kylie Skin and Kylie Baby. The financial impact was substantial, with Kylie Cosmetics achieving a remarkable $420 million in revenue within its first 18 months of operation. Surpassing expectations, the brand reached the coveted $1 billion milestone in 2019, accomplishing this feat three years earlier than initially estimated.

The secret to success may be Grede

While Emma Grede may not have the same level of celebrity status as the Kardashian-Jenner family, her behind-the-scenes brilliance has played a pivotal role in launching billion-dollar enterprises with the famous clan. 

At 41, this London-born entrepreneur serves as the co-founder and CEO of Good American, the successful clothing line created in collaboration with Khloé Kardashian. Additionally, Emma is the founding partner of Skims. Her diverse portfolio extends to her role as the co-founder of Safely, a cleaning supplies company launched in 2021 in collaboration with Kris Jenner.

Emma’s journey with the Kardashian-Jenners began in 2013 when she first connected with Kris. The two discussed the ambitions of the Kardashian sisters, and Kris, known for her forthrightness, expressed a desire for meaningful participation in their ventures beyond mere endorsements. This sparked Emma’s idea of developing a size-inclusive clothing line, leading to the creation of Good American. The launch was a remarkable success, with $1 million worth of jeans sold on the first day.

In 2017, Emma and her partner Jens relocated to Los Angeles to be closer to the Kardashian-Jenner family and tap into the lucrative US market. Two years later, Emma was approached by Kim Kardashian to collaborate on Skims. Jens oversees the day-to-day operations of the range, while Emma focuses on design, production, planning, and merchandising. 

Emma acknowledges the unique storytelling capabilities that each member of the Kardashian-Jenner family brings to the table, describing Kris, Khloé, and Kim as “incredible business partners.” Their partnership exemplifies the fusion of fame and entrepreneurial prowess, demonstrating that, in the world of business, fame can indeed be a powerful accelerator.

Monetise like a Kardashian 

You know how each Kardashian has their own “thing”? Kim is the sexy one, Kourtney is the more private one, Khloe is the tall one, etc. It’s like they’ve turned their personal stories – the ups, the downs, and everything in between – into this relatable brand narrative. It’s not just about products; it’s about personalities and connections.

The Kardashians have effectively built and leveraged their personal brands, creating a strong and distinctive identity for each family member that has resulted in massive followings on social media. This individual branding strategy has allowed them to connect with diverse audiences, fostering a sense of authenticity and – dare I say it – relatability.

In my opinion, the main lesson that businesses can learn from the Kardashians is that showing a bit of personality (even if that personality is flawed) and crafting a unique brand story can really make customers feel connected. Having a massive social media following and partnering with the right people are equally important ingredients in the recipe, but they aren’t the secret to success in this instance. For businesses to get a taste of Kardashian success, it’s about creating a brand that people don’t just buy into; they want to be a part of the story.

The question is: can anyone else really keep up with the Kardashians?

About the author:

Dominique Olivier is a fine arts graduate who recently learnt what HEPS means. Although she’s really enjoying learning about the markets, she still doesn’t regret studying art instead.

She brings her love of storytelling and trivia to Ghost Mail, with The Finance Ghost adding a sprinkling of investment knowledge to her work.

Dominique is a freelance writer at Wordy Girl Writes and can be reached on LinkedIn here.

Ghost Bites (AB InBev | Mondi | MTN)

The Finance Ghost
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Ghost Bites (AB InBev | Mondi | MTN)

Listen to the latest episode of Ghost Wrap here, brought to you by Mazars:

AB InBev exits Russia with an empty glass (JSE: ANH)

There might be a payment down the line – but it won’t be material

Back in April 2022 and in the aftermath of the invasion of Ukraine, AB InBev announced that it was “forfeiting all financial benefit as a non-controlling partner” from the joint venture operations in Russia, called AB InBev Efes. The partner there is Turkish brewer Anadolu Efes and the parties were in discussions at that point in time for the partner to buy out AB InBev’s stake. The impairment at the time for this was $1.1 billion.

Considering there was really only one buyer in town for this share in the joint venture, it’s taken a long time to announce a deal. Perhaps AB InBev was playing for time in the hope that things would improve. Either way, there’s now a transaction on the table and the cash being received by AB InBev up-front is precisely zero. Dololo. Zilch. Nada.

There’s a chance of payments in years to come, subject to regulatory approvals, but AB InBev warns that these would be immaterial anyway.

Mondi is ready with the special distribution (JSE: MNP)

The proceeds from the Russian disposal are earmarked for this

If you’ve been following Mondi, you’ll know that the company disposed of the converting operations in Russia in June 2023 and Syktyvkar in October 2023. There’s obviously some leakage along the way (like transaction costs), but €775 million is available for a special dividend to shareholders.

This works out to €1.60 per ordinary share. Interestingly, to avoid breaking share price charts going forward, there’s a share consolidation where shareholders will receive 10 shares for every 11 shares in issue. This will have the effect of making the share price comparable before and after the special dividend.

This transaction requires a circular and a shareholder vote in mid-January. If all goes to plan, the dividend will be a lovely Valentine’s Day gift (well almost – scheduled for 13 February). I can’t wait for my “from Russia, with love” headline.

And by the way, Mondi has already indicated the exchange rate applicable to the dividend. It works out to R32.4264320 per share. We can all aspire to own so many shares that the seventh decimal place makes a difference.

The SIM registration deadline is here for MTN Nigeria (JSE: MTN)

Hopefully, they will manage to save most of the numbers

This has been a long time coming. The regulator in Nigeria is trying to clamp down on unregistered SIM cards in the country. Since April 2022, we’ve already had a scenario where outgoing calls are barred for subscribers whose numbers are not associated with national identity numbers.

Now, depending on the verification status, lines will be barred by either 28 February or 29 March 2024. I’m not 100% sure what this means for data services. If data was still working up until now and only outgoing calls were barred, then I’m not surprised that it failed to have the desired effect on forcing compliance. Users can just use WhatsApp!

For MTN Nigeria, the relevance here is that they want to retain their customers, so there will be a big drive now to get holders of unregistered SIM cards to sort it out before the deadline. It’s important to note that this is an industry-wide issue, not something specifically targeted at MTN’s business.

Little Bites:

  • Director dealings:
    • The Chair of Mondi (JSE: MNP) has bought shares worth £38k.
    • Niki Giles, the returning CFO of Sygnia (JSE: SYG), has bought shares in the company worth R160k.
    • The COO of Kibo Energy (JSE: KBO) sold shares in the company worth £4k. I cannot stress enough how speculative that company is, so don’t ignore something like this.
    • An associate of directors of Argent Industrial (JSE: ART) sold shares worth R77k. Right at the bottom of the announcement, there’s a note that the shares are linked to a retired director and shareholder of the same associate.
    • Three directors of Adcock Ingram (JSE: AIP) exercised options to acquire shares worth R2.8 million. There’s no indication of any sales yet to cover taxes, but let’s keep an eye out.
  • The process for AYO Technology (JSE: AYO) to finalise its settlement agreement with the GEPF and the JSE is dragging on and on. There’s yet another extension now, with the long-stop date moved out by six months to 30 June 2024. Putting the long in long-stop, that’s for sure.
  • Sasfin (JSE: SFN) announced that Global Credit Ratings (GCR) has affirmed its international scale long and short-term issuer ratings of B/B with a Stable outlook. It’s interesting to me that the outlook has been left at Stable given the disposals of the Capital Equipment Finance and Commercial Property Finance businesses. I would’ve expected to see it improve. This is a cautious approach from the ratings agency.
  • There’s absolutely no liquidity in Deutsche Konsum (JSE: DKR) so the annual results for the year ended September only get a passing mention down here. Even though rental income in this German fund was up 7%, the effect of interest rates hikes meant that Funds From Operations per share actually fell year-on-year. The loan-to-value has shot up from 49.7% to 61.6% which is problematic.

Ghost Bites (Accelerate Property Fund | Anglo American | Ascendis | Jubilee Metals | MC Mining | Richemont | Sabvest | Sun International | Trustco)

The Finance Ghost
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Ghost Bites (Accelerate Property Fund | Anglo American | Ascendis | Jubilee Metals | MC Mining | Richemont | Sabvest | Sun International | Trustco)

Listen to the latest episode of Ghost Wrap here, brought to you by Mazars:

Accelerate Property Fund is starting to take serious strain (JSE: APF)

Did they bite off way more than they can chew with Fourways Mall?

The only good news in the Accelerate Property Fund results for the six months to September 2023 can be found on the revenue line, which moved 5% higher. From then onwards, it’s ugly. So ugly, in fact, that SA REIT Funds from Operations (the key metric) plummeted from R110.7 million to just R26.9 million.

Simply, they have too much debt. The loan-to-value ratio has spiked from 42.1% to 47.7%. The interest cover ratio is down from 1.9x to 1.7x and they’ve had to ask lenders nicely to temporarily relax this covenant while they complete the disposals of certain properties to try and reduce debt.

The Fourways Mall development seems to have been too ambitious, with a vacancy rate of 17% that has been flat in the past six months. To try and fix this, they’ve appointed Flanagan and Gerard to asset manage Fourways Mall and they will be making several other changes. I enjoyed the mention of “dwell time” as an important metric for success: literally, having tenants in place that lead to shoppers increasing their time spent in the mall! A separate circular to shareholders will be issued for the proposed Flanagan and Gerard appointment.

In addition to those challenges, the fund owns a portfolio of B- and C-grade office space, which is where the biggest vacancy problems lie.

These are stressful times for the fund, with a weighted average debt term of just 1.1 years. It will help them tremendously if rates start dropping next year, but hope is never a strategy.

The directors must be taking some heat from major shareholders, as the related party settlement disclosed in the March 2023 results has been amended to have no cash outflow for Accelerate. Full details will be released in due course and I’ll reserve judgement until then.

Unsurprisingly, no dividend has been declared for this period as the fund desperately needs to preserve cash.

A court victory for Anglo American in Zambia (JSE: AGL)

The Kabwe class action has been dismissed

Lead pollution in the town of Kabwe, Zambia, is a very severe problem. Two law firms have been trying to pin it on Anglo American, by leading a class action suit on behalf of Zambian claimants.

This hasn’t worked, as the High Court of South Africa has dismissed the claimants’ application for certification of a class action. According to Anglo American, the court recognised the multiple legal and factual claws in the claim. They even dismissed it with costs, noting that the law firms had taken out insurance for those legal costs (i.e. this won’t hit the pockets of the claimants).

Ascendis Health has released the delisting circular (JSE: ASC)

A significant portion of shareholders will be moving into the delisted space rather than selling

Thanks to a consortium led by Carl Neethling (who also happens to be the CEO of Ascendis these days), there’s an offer on the table for shareholders of 80 cents a share. This has been deliberately structured as an offer rather than a scheme of arrangement, as any shareholder can opt to refuse the offer and hold shares in an unlisted environment instead.

This tells you that management is more interested in operating in an unlisted environment than in taking out all the other shareholders at this price. Acting as Independent Expert, BDO Corporate Finance has opined that the offer is both fair and reasonable to shareholders.

Holders of 54.39% of eligible shares in issue (including Calibre Investment Holdings with 20.78%) have noted that they will vote in favour of the delisting resolution. Those shareholders (along with the consortium members) have also indicated that they will not accept the exit offer.

A holder of a further 11.21% of shares in issue has given written confirmation of an intention to vote in favour of the delisting. This takes total support to around 65.60% for the delisting resolution, which gives it a very good chance of succeeding at the shareholder meeting. They need 75% of those present at the meeting and companies never manage a 100% turnout of shareholders.

If you would like to refer to the circular, you’ll find it here.

Jubilee Metals received strong support for a capital raise (JSE: JBL)

This is exactly how public markets are meant to work

In an accelerated bookbuild structure, a company announces a capital raise and the bookrunners jump on the phone to fill the raise. Jubilee clearly had investors waiting in the wings (they even called this a “very targeted raise”), as the raise was filled almost immediately after it was announced.

You may recall news of an exciting project in Zambia, with International Resources Holding RSC Limited (based in Abu Dhabi) coming in as the major funder. Jubilee Metals is the technical partner on that transaction and has other copper investments in Zambia as well.

To fund the various projects in Zambia, the company wanted to raise £10 million at a price equal to the 30-day VWAP. Due to the volatility in the price, this is a 19% discount to the price on 14 December before the raise was announced.

The sad thing for South Africans is that the bookrunners are based in London. It looks like Jubilee didn’t waste its time by trying to raise on the JSE. That strategy worked out well, as investor demand was such that the raise was increased from £10 million to £13 million.

This is a good reminder that (1) junior mining groups constantly need to raise capital and (2) the market likes what Jubilee is doing in Zambia.

A revised deal on the table for MC Mining (JSE: MCZ)

A consortium led by Senosi Group has filed a revised offer

I must say, the MC Mining SENS announcement doesn’t make it easy for us to find out what is going on here. Perhaps it’s an Aussie thing (as the regulations in that market are very strict around takeovers), but it simply recommends that shareholders “take no action” in relation to the offer. There’s no useful summary of the terms.

This means that I had to go digging in this document to find those terms.

Long story short, there’s a consortium of shareholders that currently hold 64.30% of the shares in issue. Senosi is the big fish in that pond, holding 23.38%. The parties have put forward a number of very good reasons why the company being listed doesn’t make sense, ranging from expected dilution through to cash burn and total lack of liquidity in the stock.

The offer price of A$0.16 per share is a 23.1% premium to the closing price before the first takeover bid by the consortium was announced on 3 November. It’s a 14.3% premium to the closing price on 15 December.

Importantly, if the consortium reaches 75% ownership, they will look to delist the company.

A luxury-grade pain for Richemont (JSE: CFR)

The FARFETCH deal is dead

FARFETCH is set to be acquired by South Korea’s Coupang, which throws the deal with Richemont under the bus completely. Painfully, this means that the $300 million in convertible senior notes issued by FARFETCH to Richemont in November 2020 will probably not be repaid. The carrying value as at 30 November 2023 is EUR218 million (note the currency).

Richemont has no other financial exposure to FARFETCH and none of the underlying Maisons have launched e-concessions on the FARFETCH marketplace. Importantly, YNAP (Richemont’s online business) has not adopted FARFETCH Platform Solutions either.

Perhaps Richemont’s first loss is its best loss here. I remain highly skeptical of the entire concept of online luxury.

Sabvest has announced some portfolio changes (JSE: SBP)

The group holds a wide range of investments

The first change is that the stake in Masimong Group Holdings has reduced from 10% to 9%. The company restructured its capital and got rid of some preference shares as well. The net impact on Sabvest is a receipt of R51 million.

The second change is that Sabvest’s interest in Sunspray Food Ingredients will decrease significantly from 27.67% to 11.1% assuming all conditions precedent are met. This is expected to result in the receipt of R80.9 million in February 2024, with top-up provisions over three years as well.

Finally, Sabcap has acquired an indirect holding in Versofy, one of the largest home and SME solar installation and power solutions groups in South Africa. This is a small effective stake, as Sabvest has a 12.5% interest in a consortium that has bought 30% in Versofy. Sabvest has provided initial guarantees of R15 million and funding of R16.5 million, which may vary as the deal develops.

Sun International acquires Peermont Group (JSE: SUI)

The jewel in the crown is of course Emperors Palace

When a company operates casinos, you surely can’t be surprised when it rolls the dice on a gamble, now can you?

Sun International will fund the acquisition of Peermont entirely through debt, based on an enterprise value of R7.3 billion and an EV/EBITDA multiple of 5.76x. In simple terms, this means they’ve bought all the shares and claims in Peermont for a total value of R7.3 billion on an EBITDA yield of 17.4% (the multiple expressed as a yield instead). That’s an earnings yield above the cost of debt, hence the idea is to use the bank’s money for the deal and repay it as quickly as possible. This is a typical private equity structure, even though Sun International isn’t a private equity fund.

I must caution that EBITDA is before depreciation, which is usually a decent proxy for maintenance capex. These are expensive facilities to keep in decent shape to attract consumers, so using an EBIT yield and testing that against the cost of debt is a better approach. We unfortunately don’t have that information just yet.

Another important point is that R7.3 billion isn’t the amount that will actually change hands here. Included in that amount is Sun International taking on the debt of Peermont. It looks like approximately R3.2 billion will need to be paid to Peermont shareholders for their equity, with that amount being funded by new debt.

This will take Sun International’s gearing level to 2.6x, with a plan to reduce this below 2.0x within 24 to 36 months.

What does this deal bring Sun International? The flagship Emperors Palace resort is obviously a major win (EBITDA margin of 40% which is in line with some of Sun International’s largest resorts), with various other small casinos in the group as well. There will also be some scale benefits in the online sports betting operations, as Peermont also has a business in that space.

If Sun International shareholders shoot the deal down, then a break fee of R75 million will be payable. Sun International has already received support from Value Capital Partners (which holds 26.04% of the shares) and holders of a further 36.50% of shares in issue. This takes total support at this stage to 62.54%, with only 50% needed for the deal to go ahead.

If all goes to plan, Sun International effectively bulks up its local operations and essentially pays for the deal with the profits of the company that it is acquiring. Of course, things can go wrong along the way, which is why deleveraging the balance sheet as quickly as possible will be a priority. Importantly, Sun International is retaining the current dividend policy, so they really are trying to give investors the best of both worlds here.

Note: an earlier version of this piece erroneously noted that 75% approval was needed for this transaction. My apologies for this error.

Trustco releases full details of the drop in NAV (JSE: TTO)

The real estate portfolio dragged NAV lower, as did other factors

Although the opening paragraph of the Trustco announcement talks about the company showcasing its resilience and adaptability, there isn’t much resilience in the net asset value per share dropping sharply from 186 cents to 117 cents.

Part of this is because Trustco is an investment holding company and discount rates moved a lot higher in the past year, leading to a decrease in equity valuations. Another major factor is a 42% drop in property values since the Bank of Namibia imposed loan-to-value restrictions. After a High Court challenge by Trustco, the mandatory deposit amount has been reduced from 50% to 10%.

The highlight is the mining exposure (Meya Mining) which achieved commercial production of diamonds. Trustco holds 19.5% in that asset, way down from the 65% initially acquired in 2016. This discount rate used for the valuation of this business is 28.20%, which gives you a good idea of what sort of returns investors are looking for in frontier markets like Sierra Leone.

Little Bites:

  • Director dealings:
    • The family trust of a director of PSG Financial Services (JSE: KST) sold shares in the company worth over R15 million. That’s a substantial sale!
    • A director of a major subsidiary of African Rainbow Minerals (JSE: ARI) has sold shares worth R1.7 million.
    • The CEO of Invicta (JSE: IVT) and Dr Christo Wiese are still at it in terms of buying the same number of shares on the open market. They’ve each acquired shares worth around R86k in the company.
    • A director of Clicks (JSE: CLS) has bought shares worth R31k on the market.
    • Among various Sygnia (JSE: SYG) directors who exercised options to acquire shares, there were a few who haven’t sold any of those shares. That’s unusual and worth a mention.
  • Although this isn’t a director dealing in the purest form, there’s a good reminder on the market of how much money the two founding partners of African Rainbow Capital have made. Shares in African Rainbow Capital Investments (JSE: AIL) worth R125 million have been transferred from African Rainbow Capital (Pty) Ltd to private companies related to each of Dr. Johan van Zyl and Johan van der Merwe. Yes, that’s a total of R250 million.
  • Harmony (JSE: HAR) has released the circular related to the proposed top-up to the B-BBEE transactions. You’ll find it here if you want to read it.
  • Sebata Holdings (JSE: SEB) has released results for the six months to September. The operating business recorded a 2% decrease in revenue. The headline loss per share has deteriorated from 5.27 cents per share to 9.91 cents per share. The value in this group is derived from a receivable related to the disposal of Sebata Municipal Solutions to Inzalo Capital, with total financial assets coming in at over R300 million. Sebata’s market cap is R230 million. The recoverability of that amount is in doubt and if performance conditions aren’t met, then the business sold to Inzalo will be returned to the group. Of course, Sebata and its shareholders would far rather receive the cash than the shares.
  • City Lodge (JSE: CLH) announced the results of its odd-lot offer. The company repurchased 314,698 shares (0.05% of the total issued ordinary share capital) for R1.48 million.
  • Texton’s (JSE: TEX) rights offer has become unconditional, which means it will go ahead. Regular readers of Ghost Bites will know that I’ve been very critical of this transaction and the impact it has on minority shareholders. The circular will be released on Thursday, 21 December.
  • A further three non-executive directors of Shaftesbury Capital (JSE: SHC) have stepped down from the board as part of right-sizing the board after the merger of Capital & Counties and Shaftesbury.
  • Kibo Energy (JSE: KBO) announced that a non-executive director and significant shareholder of Mast Energy Developments (MED) – the subsidiary that is still waiting for its money from its joint venture partner – has given a director loan of £81k to MED. He sold 14,000,000 MED shares for this out of a total holding of 17,708,538 MED shares. The loan bears interest at 7% per annum and (if I understand the somewhat cryptic announcement correctly) is repayable through the issuance of 14,000,000 MED shares, regardless of their value.
  • Andrew Mthembu, who has held a number of executive roles in industries like telecoms, has been appointed to the board of KAP (JSE: KAP).

Ghost Bites (Grindrod | Huge Group | KAP | SA Corporate | Spear | Tharisa)

The Finance Ghost
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Ghost Bites (Grindrod | Huge Group | KAP | SA Corporate | Spear | Tharisa)

Listen to the latest episode of Ghost Wrap here, brought to you by Mazars:

Grindrod looks to extend its stay in Mozambique (JSE: GND)

This port is incredibly important, especially as South African infrastructure deteriorates

Grindrod holds an indirect 24.7% stake in the Maputo port. The current concession expires in 2033, so there’s only 10 years left of the current deal.

The good news is that the company operating the port has been in discussions with the Mozambique government to extend the current concession out to 2058. The even better news is that the government has issued an in-principle approval for the extension.

This facilitates increased investment to expand the capacity at the port, which is particularly important given the state of play at Transnet and the opportunities this creates for Grindrod and Mozambique.

Huge Group raises R300 million in pref share funding (JSE: HUG)

This settles existing debt facilities with RMB and leaves plenty leftover for investments

Huge has raised preference share funding from RMB. Instead of a loan, the bank subscribes for preference shares in a funding SPV (special purpose vehicle) and then the SPV can pass that funding on to group companies as required.

Under this structure, RMB will subscribe for R150 million in A preference shares and R150 million in B preference shares. The A shares are redeemable over five years, starting in year three. The B shares are redeemable in a bullet structure (a single redemption) at the end of year five.

The existing term debt facilities with RMB of R162.5 million will be settled with these proceeds. That leaves a solid amount over and above this settlement for further investments by Huge. Let’s hope they do a better job than in some of the previous deals and investments.

KAP’s earnings drop by at least 20% (JSE: KAP)

This is the lump of coal under the tree for KAP shareholders

KAP released a trading statement dealing with the five months to November 2023. The biggest issue is weakness in global polymer margins, with a direct impact on key business Safripol. This problem has dwarfed any of the usual suspects, like load shedding and Transnet port congestion. Safripol’s operating margin is “well below” the through-the-cycle guidance range of 7% to 9%.

PG Bison did fairly well in this period and the R1.9 billion MDF expansion project has been completed. Export sales have been strong but these are at a lower margin than domestic sales, so the mix effect means a slightly lower margin overall.

Unitrans saw performance go backwards due to the broader operating environment. The division has been restructured and those benefits will come through in the second half of the financial year.

Feltex (which plays in the new vehicle assembly value chain) had a decent period, with a steady order book supported by a recovery in assembly volumes.

There’s also good news at Restonic, which achieved volume and revenue growth in this period despite subdued demand in the furniture retail market.

Finally, Optix saw a dip in profits despite satisfactory growth in revenue. This is due to the costs of scaling the business in line with objectives.

KAP has a number of businesses (as you can see), but Safripol is the key. With poor performance in that operation, HEPS is expected to be at least 20% lower than the comparable period. They don’t give a tighter range than that, which suggests that the drop could be significantly worse than 20%.

The group is within debt covenants and raised a R3 billion revolving credit facility, so the balance sheet is managing for now at least.

SA Corporate gives a pre-close update (JSE: SAC)

This deals with the key metrics for the year ending December 2023

SA Corporate Real Estate has a varied portfolio that even includes residential units. Across the portfolio, it looks like the fund will achieve 4% like-for-like growth in net property income for the year ending December 2023.

The retail portfolio has seen a dip in 12-month rolling trading density growth, from 5.1% to 4.8%. Although reversions were slightly negative in the period ending June, they are expected to swing to between 2.5% and 3.0% for the full year thanks to favourable renewal activity.

Even the office portfolio is showing some signs of improvement, with vacancies down from 16.6% at the end of June to around 15% by the end of the year. Reversions have also moved positive, which is big news.

The industrial portfolio has one minor vacancy and will see reversions move negative for the full year due to the renewal of a motor showroom.

In the residential portfolio, rental escalations are between 3.5% and 4%.

The group is also busy with a restructure of its residential business, with full details available in the presentation at this link.

Spear expects flat distributable income per share (JSE: SEA)

The commercial office portfolio is a headache, but will hopefully be resolved soon

Spear REIT is known as the property fund that is focused solely on the Western Cape. Having recently done a roadtrip in northern parts of the country and having also done a lot of driving around the Western Cape where I have lived for the past few years, I can confirm that this is a solid strategy in South Africa.

But even the Western Cape infrastructure can’t make up for weakness in the commercial office portfolio, where the vacancy rate has gone the wrong way. This is because a large tenant vacated space in Parow and the area is being relet to more than one party. Negotiations with one party have dragged on, leading to an inflated vacancy rate as at 30 November 2023 (the end of the third quarter of the financial year). The fund believes that this vacancy will be addressed soon. They even channeled their inner Jerome Powell by referring to it as “transitory”!

The industrial portfolio is in much healthier shape than commercial, reflecting a vacancy rate of just 1.41%. Rental reversions are +5.4% and in-force escalations are the highest across the Spear portfolio, coming in at 7.66%.

Convenience retail is also doing pretty well, with a vacancy rate of 2.95% and positive rental reversion rate of 4.65%. In-force escalations of 7.24% aren’t far behind the industrial portfolio. 41% of the portfolio is occupied by national tenants on long-dated leases with solid payment records.

In other good news, at least Spear is managing to recover 96% of the cost of diesel supplied across the portfolio. There aren’t many funds that can say that! Importantly, once commissioned, Spear’s total PV solar production capacity will cover 25% of its demand.

The balance sheet reflects an improvement to cost of debt by 4 basis points since the interim period, but a significant year-on-year increase from 8.66% to 9.55%. The fixed debt ratio is just under 40%, which is still well below the target range of 65% to 75% of debt to be fixed for 24 to 36 months. The loan-to-value has moved higher, from 36.30% at FY23 to 40.70%. The target range is 38% to 43%. The disposal of the Liberty Life Building in Century City will reduce the loan-to-value ratio by 500 basis points by the end of FY24.

Although the second half of the year is reflecting an improvement on the situation in the interim period, management’s expectation is for distributable income per share to only be 0% to 1.5% higher year-on-year. It’s tough going in property at the moment.

In morning trade, it looked like somebody had finger trouble with a trade that went through way too high:

Tharisa: a tale of two commodities (JSE: THA)

PGMs have had an awful year, but chrome has been much stronger thankfully

Tharisa produces both PGMs and chrome, with the latter saving the story right now. The results for the year ended September 2023 reflect really tough times in PGMs (as we already know this year), while chrome prices have been on the up.

Let’s start with reef mined, which is the first step in producing these commodities. The volume of reef mined fell by 24.1%, with various issues related to the open pit mining process (including adverse weather). The company purchased ROM ore to maintain plant throughput.

Production of PGMs fell by 19.3% and sales of PGMs fell by 14.4%. The average PGM basket price tanked by 26.2% in dollars. Rand weakness mitigated this disaster somewhat, with prices in local currency down by 15.7%. The PGM market is so tough at the moment that the Karo Platinum Project timeline for commissioning has been pushed out by 12 months to June 2025. They can accelerate that timeline if markets improve.

Chrome production fell 0.2% and sales were up 0.3%, in both cases excluding third party volumes. Production may be flat, but the average chrome price was up 25.8% in dollars. In rand, it was up 44.7%!

Putting it all together, we find a 5.3% drop in revenue. That doesn’t sound too bad, but when combined with inflationary pressure in costs, the net impact is a 42.4% decrease in EBITDA. Profit before tax fell by 48.1%. The free cash flow situation is very different to the move in profitability, with that metric up by 15% and net cash on the balance sheet up by 60.9%.

In case you’re wondering about the commodity split, PGMs contributed just 29% of gross profit in this period, down from over 62% in the comparable period.

Looking ahead, production guidance for FY24 is between 145koz and 155koz PGMs (vs. 144.7koz in this period and 179.2 koz in 2022) and between 1.7 Mt and 1.8 Mt of chrome concentrates (vs. 1.58 Mt in both 2022 and 2023). At current commodity prices, the near-term growth is clearly going to come from chrome.

Little Bites:

  • Director dealings:
    • Carl Neethling has been leading a consortium that is looking to do a take-private of Ascendis (JSE: ASC). Together with his associates (under JSE rules – so don’t mistake this as meaning they are part of the consortium), there have been acquisitions of further shares worth R5.5 million. This takes the combined holding of Neethling and these specific associates to 11% of Ascendis.
    • Now, here’s a substantial example of a show of faith in a company. The CFO of MAS (JSE: MSP) – the real estate fund that has suspended its dividend based on concerns about the debt refinancing environment in a few years from now – has bought shares worth R2.06 million.
    • An associate of the Wapnick family – the people running Octodec (JSE: OCT) – has bought shares in that company worth R591k.
    • A director of Remgro (JSE: REM) exercised share appreciation rights and sold the entire lot, not just the amount required to cover the tax.
    • The CFO of RH Bophelo (JSE: RHB) bought shares worth R49k.
    • The non-executive chairman of Primary Health Properties (JSE: PHP) and his associate have collectively acquired shares under the dividend re-investment plan worth just over £3k.
  • The business rescue practitioners at Tongaat Hulett (JSE: TON) certainly aren’t going to be taking a break this December. The court has ruled that the meeting to approve the business rescue plan must be adjourned from 14 December to no later than 11 January 2024. The bigger news is that the plans need to be amended, presumably to take into account the payment of sugar levies based on a separate recent court blow to Tongaat Hulett. This business rescue is on a knife’s edge.
  • Conduit Capital (JSE: CND) hopes to publish its financials for the year ended June 2022 (not a typo) by January 2024. The problem is that CCL (94.4% of revenue) is in liquidation, hence many things have needed to be finalised to make this audit work possible.
  • The board of Afristrat (JSE: ATI) has reached the conclusion that the company is no longer a going concern. In fact, things are so bad that they won’t even use business rescue provisions, as there needs to be a reasonable prospect of the business being saved before this route can be followed. They do not believe that such a prospect exists. Ironically, the board is waiting for the outcome of a liquidation application ruling in court (the hearing was more than three months ago) before it can act on this conclusion. The reality is that the show is over at Afristrat. The company (and its shareholders) is a casualty of fraud in the Getbucks business that is part of the group.
  • Khalid Abdulla, former director of AYO Technology (JSE: ACT), has been fighting the JSE’s recent censure and associated financial penalty at the Financial Services Tribunal (FST). Initially, a fine of R2 million was handed down by the JSE for transgressions. The reconsideration application was heard on 15 September and a decision has now been given, with the application being partially upheld. Aside from a wording change to the breach of JSE rules that led to the fine, the more relevant change is that the FST has reduced the fine from R2 million to R1.2 million. The rest of the application was dismissed, so the public censure is still in place and the fine is due immediately.
  • Sanlam (JSE: SLM) has consolidated its stake in AfroCentric (JSE: ACT) under Sanlam Life. The total stake is 60% in AfroCentric. There is no actual change in holding here, but it’s a sign of the strategic thinking.
  • Marshall Monteagle (JSE: MMP) announced the resignation of David Marshall as CEO. He has been in the role since 2009. Warwick Marshall is taking over the top job, having established the trading division of the group in 1993.

Ghost Wrap #58 (Tharisa | enX – Nedbank | Thungela | Italtile | Grindrod)

The Finance Ghost
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Ghost Wrap #58 (Tharisa | enX – Nedbank | Thungela | Italtile | Grindrod)

The Ghost Wrap podcast is proudly brought to you by Mazars, a leading international audit, tax and advisory firm with a national footprint within South Africa. Visit the Mazars website for more information.

In this episode of Ghost Wrap, I covered these important stories on the local market:

  • Tharisa has PGM and chrome operations, which means the company has two levers to pull in response to commodity prices.
  • enX is selling Eqstra to Nedbank, which has interesting financial and strategic considerations for investors in both those groups.
  • Thungela can’t do much about local infrastructure at Transnet and the negative effect it has, but some clever dealmaking in the Aussie acquisition has paid off.
  • Italtile is still suffering in an environment where consumers are buying holidays and experiences, not new bathrooms.
  • Grindrod has a partially mitigating factor when it comes to local infrastructure, holding an indirect stake in the company operating the Maputo port – and that concession is being extended by the Mozambican government. 
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