Wednesday, November 20, 2024
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GHOST BITES (Altron | Equites | Lighthouse | Mantengu Mining | Newpark REIT | Sibanye-Stillwater | Tharisa)


Altron updates its earnings guidance (JSE: AEL)

The full group is now profitable, not just the continuing operations

Altron has released an updated trading statement for the six months to August. This is after an initial trading statement was released at the end of July. The July release was the bare minimum in terms of earnings guidance, noting that earnings would improve by at least 20%. We now know that they were underplaying their hand in a big way, as earnings are multiple times higher than in the comparable period.

The comparable results have been restated to reclassify Altron Document Solutions as a continuing operation. Altron Nexus seems to be the only discontinued operation now. Focusing on continuing operations, HEPS has jumped from 28 cents in the comparable period to between 76 and 81 cents in this period, an improvement of between 171% and 189%!

When companies throw out the “at least 20%” wording in an initial trading statement, it’s because this is the minimum required disclosure under JSE rules. It can be much, much more than that, with Altron as a perfect example.

Looking at total group operations (i.e. including Altron Nexus), they’ve swung from a headline loss of 65 cents per share in the comparable period to HEPS of 71 to 76 cents in this period.

Detailed interim results are due for release on 4 November.


Property valuations are starting to move higher at Equites (JSE: EQU)

Growth is hard to come by though, including in the dividend

Although it is true that decreasing interest rates will be the tide that lifts all boats in the property sector, it’s also true that those boats won’t rise by the same amount. Equites has been struggling with its UK exposure, delivering a disappointing flat share price return this year. This excludes dividends, of course.

In results for the six months to August, Equites sold R0.6 billion worth of assets and combined this with a dividend reinvestment programme to fund R0.9 billion in development expenditure. This helped keep the loan-to-value ratio stable at 41.0%. Just remember that those dividend programmes are dilutive to shareholders, as they are basically miniature rights issues. The market seems to gloss over this fact.

Based on disposals currently being implemented, they expect the loan-to-value to drop to 38% by February 2025.

Although like-for-like rental growth was 5.6% in South Africa and 7.4% in the UK, the uplift in property values was modest, particularly in the UK. Things do seem to have bottomed out in developed markets, as I’ve written about in Sirius Real Estate and Schroder European Real Estate elsewhere this week.

The interim distribution per share of 66.50 cents at Equites is just 1.7% higher than 65.37 cents in the comparable period. This is despite distributable earnings being up 5.4%. This is because of the additional shares in issue, which is the point I made about how these dividend reinvestment programmes are little more than annual rights issues.

Notably, despite the slight valuation uplift, net asset value (NAV) per share fell by 2.4% to R16.32. The share price is trading at roughly R14.00 per share, so the discount to NAV is minimal. This is because the market believes strongly in logistics properties, seeing them as dependable cash cows.

The group is targeting the upper end of its guidance for the full-year distribution per share of 130 to 135 cents. At the current price, that’s a forward yield of 9.5%. At a premium valuation and with no obvious reasons why logistics should outperform retail and office properties over the next 12 months, Equites wouldn’t be one of my picks in the sector. The total return is likely to be decent but not spectacular, so I wouldn’t own it instead of just holding a property ETF.


Lighthouse is pushing its Iberian strategy (JSE: LTE)

For South African property funds, Spain and Portugal are the new Poland

The flavour of the month for South African property funds is peri-peri chicken, with churros to end off. They’ve clearly been having Nando’s for lunch, inspiring this capital allocation strategy.

The Iberian Peninsula is all the rage right now, seemingly offering similar opportunities to those unlocked in Eastern Europe in recent years. The idea is to invest in stable European regions with high growth rates (at least relative to the countries where the sun doesn’t shine and the food isn’t nearly as good).

Lighthouse Properties is acquiring Espai Girones for EUR 168.2 million, a mall adjacent to the motorway that connects France to the Barcelona area in Spain. It is the only major mall offering in the provincial capital, Girona. This is the entire point in Europe and I’ve seen it on my travels: they simply don’t have many modern malls. The way we understand shopping centres in South Africa is completely different to how it works in Europe, which is why they can be great assets over there.

Lighthouse’s exposure to the Iberian Peninsula is now 76% of the value of Lighthouse’s directly held properties.

The property is expected to achieve distributable profit of €12.45 million for the year ending December 2025. Based on the purchase price, that’s a yield of 7.4%. That might sound expensive to you, but remember that this return is in euros, not rands.

This is a Category 2 transaction, so shareholders won’t be asked to vote on it.


Mantengu Mining invests in chrome and PGM tailings at Blue Ridge Platinum (JSE: MTU)

They are paying only nominal value for the equity here

Mantengu Mining is taking a punt with a deal to acquire Blue Ridge Mining. One of the sellers is Sibanye-Stillwater, which holds 50% in Blue Ridge. The price for the equity? R2. There are no zeroes missing there. Two bucks.

This should immediately tell you two things. Firstly, the thing is clearly broken. Secondly, whatever value there is in the assets must be must be less than or equal to the debt in the business, as the equity value is nominal.

The mine was placed on care and maintenance all the way back in 2011, so it is certainly broken. The opportunity here for Mantengu is the tailings dump of 1 million tonnes that includes chrome and PGMs. Mantengu reckons they could get up to 375,000 tonnes of chrome and 35,000 ounces of PGMs, with an ability to operate as an extremely low-cost producer. Over and above this, Mantengu thinks that there’s a chance of getting underground mining operations underway again. They will invest in a bankable feasibility study in this regard that will take 18 months to complete.

As for whether or not there is debt, the answer is a resounding yes. R39.1 million is payable to DBSA on a deferred basis and R25.5 million is payable to the IDC on a similar basis. Each of those amounts will only be paid from gross profit achieved by Blue Ridge over time. Although it sounds like Mantengu is getting a free ride here, remember that they will be exposed to the operating costs and all those risks.

To show how desperate the situation is, Sibanye is walking away from loan account claims held by various entities worth over R1 billion and the other shareholder (Imbani) is losing over R100 million in claims. The DBSA and IDC are also taking a huge bath, with claims of R418 million and R272 million respectively.

This is a risky deal for Mantengu. If it was a lucrative operation, the parties involved here wouldn’t have been so willing to walk away with massive losses. But if things do improve in the PGM sector, Mantengu could look very clever here.


Newpark extended the JSE lease but still has work to do (JSE: NRL)

Key discussions with lenders are underway

Newpark REIT is one of the smaller property funds on the market. Ironically it owns the JSE building, so it is listed on its tenant’s product! The JSE building is one of only four buildings in the portfolio, with the others being 24 Central adjacent to the JSE building (I have many fond memories there) and properties in Linbro Business Park and Crown Mines.

If that sounds like a rather random and far-too-concentrated portfolio, then you’re on the right track. One of the major risks has been the lease with the JSE, which has thankfully been extended. Although it’s hard to imagine the JSE moving from where it currently is, anything is possible. Thanks to that extension, the portfolio’s weighted average lease expiry is up to 5.8 years.

The next problem to solve is the debt. The loan-to-value ratio of 41.7% looks only slightly high on paper, but it exceeds one of the debt covenant measures from the fund’s lenders. The lender has condoned the breach, pending the outcome of current negotiations to extend the term of R150 million in debt that matures in May 2025. Management sounds confident regarding the outcome there, but it’s still a risk for now.

Against this backdrop, the dividend per share for the six months to August 2024 fell by 14.3%. Funds from operations per share fell 11.7%. None of this is good, driven by a revenue increase of just 0.1% due to a negative rental reversion with a major tenant. When you only own four buildings, every tenant is a major tenant! With revenue growth so far below inflation, operating profit never stood a chance.

Newpark has close to zero liquidity, so I’ve used this result as an opportunity to walk you through some of the risks faced by smaller funds. It’s very unlikely that you can meaningfully trade this stock.


Bad news for Sibanye-Stillwater, with an hilarious twist (JSE: SSW)

Mr Justice Butcher has spoken

This is an iconic SENS announcement, even though there’s a very serious undertone to it. I kid you not, Mr Justice Butcher (!!) has ruled against Sibanye-Stillwater in the High Court of England and Wales. This sounds like the script to a Monty Python skit!

Sadly for Sibanye-Stillwater shareholders, John Cleese isn’t involved here. These proceedings were brought against Sibanye-Stillwater by Appian, the counterparty to the acquisition of the Santa Rita and Serrote mines in Brazil in 2021/2022. Sibanye walked away from that deal after a geotechnical event that Sibanye determined to be a material adverse change.

The proceedings relate to whether that event could indeed be reasonably considered to be a material adverse event. Mr Justice Butcher (I’m sorry, I can’t stop laughing) has ruled that it was not in fact material and adverse, which means that Sibanye wasn’t entitled to terminate the deal. On the plus side (for Sibanye at least), the same judge ruled that the management of Sibanye believed they were terminating in the best interests of Sibanye, so there’s no wilful misconduct here.

This is actually a serious matter, as the next proceedings relate to the potential damages claim that Appian would have against Sibanye. It feels like the world just refuses to throw Sibanye a bone right now, with everything going wrong.

Sibanye’s argument is that Appian could’ve sold to another purchaser for a similar purchase price after the deal fell through, with the judgement noting that Appian did indeed receive multiple offers for the mine after Sibanye walked away. This implies that (1) it probably wasn’t a material adverse change after all and (2) surely Appian can’t claim to have suffered a loss if the chose not to sell to someone else for the same price. I don’t think justice has been butchered just yet, unless Appian somehow manages to justify a quantifiable claim.

Stay tuned for the next episode of Monty Python: That’s Not My Deal!

Sibanye fell over 8% on the day, with the market not seeing the funny side.


Chrome is shining brightest at Tharisa (JSE: THA)

The group is taking advantage of chrome prices

Tharisa has released its production report for the fourth quarter and thus the full year ended September 2024. This is firmly a story of two metals, with chrome doing well at the moment and the PGM market in disarray.

Thankfully, the best production news at Tharisa is exactly where it needs to be: chrome. Production came in 7.8% higher, marking an annual record in chrome production at a time when average prices in dollars were up 13.7% for the year. PGM production was flat for the year and the average price was down 28%.

So, despite all the horrors in the PGM sector, Tharisa managed to increase its net cash position over three months from $92.2 million to $108.7 million.

Production guidance for FY25 doesn’t tell you much. For PGMs, they’ve set it at between 140 and 160 koz vs. 145.1 koz achieved this year, so the mid-point is a bit higher than FY24. For chrome, the range is wide at 1.65 to 1.80 Mt vs. 1.7 Mt in FY24.

Tharisa has done a great job of trying to navigate the PGM cycle by controlling its controllables. The chrome focus is helping tremendously and they’ve been busy on several other projects as well, ranging from renewable energy to process improvements in chrome production.

Of course, what they really need is for PGM prices to move higher. It also helps that a significant portion of chrome demand is driven by China, so the recently announced stimulus measures in that country won’t hurt.


Nibbles:

  • Director dealings:
    • As a reminder of what the big leagues look like, Dr Christo Wiese shuffled some Shoprite (JSE: SHP) exposure around his entities in scrip lending and total return swap transactions. The value? A cool R1.1 billion.
    • After the news of DRA Global (JSE: DRA) intending to delist, Apex Partners (an associate of the CEO of the group) bought another R43 million worth of shares.
    • A prescribed officer of Standard Bank (JSE: SBK) has sold shares worth R4.4 million.
    • A prescribed officer of Nedbank (JSE: NED) sold shares worth nearly R1.5 million.
    • Following the lead of the group’s top executive, a director of a major subsidiary of AVI (JSE: AVI) has sold all the shares received under the performance scheme. The value of the sale was R60.5k.
    • The CEO of Choppies (JSE: CHP) bought shares in the company worth roughly R10k.
  • The NEPI Rockcastle (JSE: NRP) scrip dividend election was well supported by shareholders, with holders of 39% of shares electing to receive shares in lieu of a cash dividend. This is exactly what I referenced further up in the Equites sector about miniature rights issues each year by these property companies as they look to conserve cash on the balance sheet by issuing shares instead of paying dividends.
  • Attacq (JSE: ATT) hosted an investor day focused on Waterfall City and the Lynnwood Bridge precinct. If you would like to see the development plans for the area (and laugh at a slide that basically argues that the rest of Joburg is a dump and Waterfall City is an oasis), then check out the presentation here.
  • AH-Vest (JSE: AHL), one of the smallest listed companies on the JSE with a market cap of just R10 million, released a trading statement for the year ended June 2024. The percentage move in HEPS is huge, up by between 182.4% and 192.4%. In reality, profits at the food group are so marginal that the percentage move doesn’t tell you much. HEPS will be between 3.81 cents and 3.95 cents. The stock is highly illiquid, with the last trade at 10 cents.

SATRIX: Key market themes locally and abroad

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Risk in investing is a feature, not a bug. It is, in fact, the reason we expect to earn higher long-term returns than those provided by risk-free assets. When thinking about risk, investors should think equally about investment term too. The longer we remain invested, the lower the risk generally becomes – a principle that the most successful investors have well understood.

There are many sources of risk that might concern investors currently – making the case for diversification as strong today as it ever was. Below we highlight some of these risks and the opportunities they present.

When Rates Abate

Investors have been anticipating rate cuts from central banks as inflation has subsided.

While inflation has been challenging to tame, central banks believe it is now starting to come under control, and have recently made decisive moves to reduce interest rates. These cuts are expected to positively impact fixed income bonds and equities, reducing borrowing costs for leveraged companies and lowering the risk-free rate used to value companies.

Impact of Middle Eastern Conflict on Equities

Oil is a crucial commodity, influenced by many factors, including OPEC’s coordinated supply, which represents almost 80% of the world’s proven oil reserves and about 40% of its production. The oil price significantly affects transportation costs and overall inflation, given its widespread use and role as a base ingredient in many products. However, new oil discoveries, such as those off the coast of Namibia, diversify supply and make the market more resilient to regional or geopolitical disruptions.

Global Diversification: Africa and India

Global diversification is crucial for South Africans as our market represents a small portion of global investment opportunities. Emerging markets generally offer higher economic growth potential, often reflected in their equity markets and offset by typically higher interest rates. The US has benefited from low interest rates for over a decade, with its market led primarily by the innovative technology sector.

India, the fastest-growing large economy, has a substantial technology services industry and is priced at a significantly higher Price/Earnings multiple compared to the broad MSCI Emerging Markets Index. It is even marginally higher than the MSCI USA Index as it prices in future growth prospects. It’s an exciting investment market, but it should be part of a broader portfolio that also includes undervalued segments offering potential upside.

The Tech Bubble Question

Nico Katzke, Head of Portfolio Solutions at Satrix* believes that valuations across the global tech sector, although seemingly stretched at present, are largely on the back of more solid fundamentals and real opportunities than was the case in previous tech rallies. Tech index proxies, like the Nasdaq, are dominated by large corporations with strong cash-flows investing in their capacity to service tomorrow’s applications in AI. Growth opportunities remain in this sector, and it is unlikely to wane in its importance in the economy of tomorrow. Building diversified exposure to global tech through time, and not timing entry, seems the best approach at present.

Benefits of Offshore Diversification

At Satrix, we advocate investing primarily through well-diversified asset class exposures, tracking broad market indices. We review asset classes for medium- to long-term performance to inform a strategically diversified asset allocation for our multi-asset balanced funds. We also target long-term drivers of excess returns within equities by tilting our portfolios towards well-recognised performance drivers, avoiding the temptation to profit from short-term market movements and noise.

Local Investments in South Africa

South Africa stands at a critical point 30 years after democracy. The new Government of National Unity, led by President Ramaphosa, aims to revive economic growth through policy reforms and restructuring. As these efforts take hold, investor confidence could lead to a re-rating in our equity market, currently trading at a discount (13.3x) to its long-term average (15.4x). Against this backdrop, the rand is likely to re-rate, posing a headwind to offshore investments as they devalue in rand terms. A stronger currency would give the South African Reserve Bank more freedom to cut interest rates, supporting local bonds.

While uncertainties remain, excluding the home market from investments may not be wise. Balancing global and local investments offers a robust strategy to achieve financial goals amidst uncertainty.

Approaches to Robust Diversification

Investors can ensure a diversified portfolio through several approaches:

  1. Outsourcing to a Financial Adviser: A financial adviser can construct an appropriately diversified portfolio.
  2. Investing in Multi-Asset Funds: Investment managers can diversify optimally across different asset classes and geographies.
  3. Constructing a Multi-Asset Portfolio: Building a diversified portfolio by investing in different specialist asset class funds yourself.

Each option should be weighed against one’s life stage, investment expertise, and the time and information available to make informed decisions.

A version of this article was first published here.

*Satrix is a division of Sanlam Investment Management

Disclaimer
Satrix Investments (Pty) Ltd is an approved financial service provider in terms of the Financial Advisory and Intermediary Services Act, No 37 of 2002 (“FAIS”). The information above does not constitute financial advice in terms of FAIS. Consult your financial adviser before making an investment decision. While every effort has been made to ensure the reasonableness and accuracy of the information contained in this document (“the information”), the FSP, its shareholders, subsidiaries, clients, agents, officers and employees do not make any representations or warranties regarding the accuracy or suitability of the information and shall not be held responsible and disclaim all liability for any loss, liability and damage whatsoever suffered as a result of or which may be attributable, directly or indirectly, to any use of or reliance upon the information.

Satrix Managers (RF) (Pty) Ltd (Satrix) is a registered and approved Manager in Collective Investment Schemes in Securities. Collective investment schemes are generally medium- to long-term investments. With Unit Trusts and ETFs, the investor essentially owns a “proportionate share” (in proportion to the participatory interest held in the fund) of the underlying investments held by the fund. With Unit Trusts, the investor holds participatory units issued by the fund while in the case of an ETF, the participatory interest, while issued by the fund, comprises a listed security traded on the stock exchange. ETFs are index tracking funds, registered as a Collective Investment and can be traded by any stockbroker on the stock exchange or via Investment Plans and online trading platforms. ETFs may incur additional costs due to being listed on the JSE. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance and the value of investments / units may go up or down. A schedule of fees and charges, and maximum commissions are available on the Minimum Disclosure Document or upon request from the Manager. Collective investments are traded at ruling prices and can engage in borrowing and scrip lending. Should the respective portfolio engage in scrip lending, the utility percentage and related counterparties can be viewed on the ETF Minimum Disclosure Document.

For more information, visit https://satrix.co.za/products

GHOST BITES (Accelerate | Afrimat | DRA Global | Hammerson | Mondi | Schroder European Real Estate)


Accelerate Property Fund tries to sell Cherrylane – again (JSE: APF)

Will they finally get it right?

By now, Accelerate executives must feel sick at the thought of even driving past Cherrylane Shopping Centre. They have tried to sell this thing numerous times. If at first you don’t succeed, keep signing sales agreements.

The latest attempted buyers are Bellerose Investments and Scarlet Sky Investments, private companies that sound like characters from a Marvel movie. They are not related parties to Accelerate.

The property was valued at R60 million as at March 2024 and is being sold for R54 million. Accelerate will use the money, if it ever comes, to reduce debt.

With a vacancy rate of 52.3%, this centre seems to be cursed. Hopefully, the conditions for this deal will be met and the transaction will close.

Separately, the group announced that they are experiencing delays in the finalisation of its category 1 related party circular, as the underlying terms are complex and require input from a number of advisory teams, as well as the JSE as regulator. They expect to distribute the circular by no later than 4 December.


Even Afrimat isn’t immune from market cycles (JSE: AFT)

Earnings have plummeted

Afrimat is well regarded in the market for having a diversified business and a great track record in acquisitions. Whilst all of that is true, the reality is that the business isn’t immune from cyclical moves in commodities like iron ore, as well as dependencies on major customers like ArcelorMittal.

Even then, it’s going to come as a shock to many to see HEPS down by between 75% and 85% for the six months to August. The move in EPS (earnings per share) is a drop of between 4% and 14%, with the vast difference attributed to the bargain purchase gain on the Lafarge acquisition that is a boost to EPS but is excluded from HEPS.

The way to interpret this is that the highlight for the period was that deal, with the rest of the business facing challenges.

One such challenge was a furnace freeze at a major customer (I think ArcelorMittal but the announcement isn’t explicit). Another problem was a decrease in international iron ore prices in dollar terms, combined with a stronger rand – and thus a significantly lower iron ore price once converted to rands. Along with a 31% increase in shipping costs and the ongoing problems at Transnet, that’s not a great situation for the iron ore business.

Lafarge made losses for all four months since being incorporated into Afrimat on 1 May 2024. This is due to the problems that Afrimat knew they would be buying at the cement factory. On the plus side, the turnaround is described as showing very good progress.

The Construction Materials segment has a better story to tell, with volumes up and the integration of the Lafarge quarries and other operations into the Afrmiat business. The Industrial Minerals business is also a positive story, with significant improvement thanks to market developers and the magical disappearance of load shedding.

These numbers are a strong reminder that even with all the efforts to diversify, Afrimat remains significantly exposed to iron ore. There has been improvement in domestic demand after the reporting period (a great read-through for ArcelorMittal) and the international iron ore price has also improved.

Given the underlying challenges, much of the GNU-inspired rally has washed away at Afrimat. The share price initially fell more than 4% in response to this news, yet it somehow staged a comeback in the afternoon to close flat for the day!


Illiquid stock DRA Global is headed for the exit (JSE: DRA)

The company will delist from the JSE and the Australian Stock Exchange

DRA Global has little in the way of liquidity in the stock, despite having a market cap of nearly R1.3 billion. It’s therefore not worth the cost and hassle of being listed, an assessment that many small- and mid-caps made in the past few years.

The delisting trend seems to have slowed down at least, following a flurry of activity that saw many companies leave our market. Even then, there will always be delistings on the table as smaller companies look for more efficient ways to operate.

DRA Global is taking the route of a share buyback. The nuance is that the share buyback isn’t conditional upon the delisting being approved by shareholders, so those who want to turn their shares into cash will be able to do so. The reverse isn’t true though, as the delistings are conditional on the buyback being approved.

As the primary listing is in Australia, the disclosure is far more detailed than normal in this announcement. It’s full of information for shareholders about the route forward and what happens in an unlisted environment.

Now here’s the trick: the buyback only covers around 20% of current issued share capital, so holders of 80% of shares will end up in unlisted territory if the delisting goes ahead. If they receive applications for more shares than this to be repurchased, then it will be a pro-rata situation. Notably, directors do not intend to participate in the buyback, so this is effectively a take-private by the company insiders using the company’s balance sheet.

The buyback price is R24.55, which is a modest premium of 11.13% to the 30-day volume-weighted average price (VWAP) on the JSE.

Another nuance is that if for some reason the delisting is allowed in Australia but not South Africa, the company will engage with the JSE on a potential continued listing.

A shareholder meeting is scheduled for early November. This is going to be an interesting one to follow.


Hammerson’s recent balance sheet initiatives have paid off (JSE: HMN)

The group has reduced its cost of debt and improved its debt maturity

Hammerson has been very busy with debt issuances and repurchases. This is typical of larger funds that have bonds with different maturity dates in issue in the markets. There are a number of different ways to get funding, with the major REITs able to tap institutional bond markets for debt capital. Over time, they have to manage the maturities carefully and take advantage of market conditions that allow for tweaks to the structure and resultant savings.

After issuing a 12-year £400 million bond that was over 7x oversubscribed, as well as repurchasing bonds of £411.6 million with maturities in 2026 and 2028, Hammerson has unlocked a decrease in its weighted average cost of funding from 3.8% to 3.6%. This equates to £3.6 million per year, with £0.8 million in savings expected for the 2024 financial year.

The weighted average debt maturity has increased from 2.9 years to 5.2 years, a significant improvement in financial risk.

Due to the repurchase of bonds being almost entirely financed by the issuance of new bonds, the loan-to-value ratio is steady at 25.5% and net debt to EBITDA remains at 5.4x. The South African funds never really report net debt to EBITDA, as this metric is usually for operating companies rather than property funds, but clearly things are different in the UK.


Mondi acquires Schumacher Packaging – a deal that looks set to close quickly (JSE: MNP)

Dad jokes aside, this is a substantial transaction

Mondi has announced a deal to acquire the Western Europe packaging assets of Schumacher Packaging. I Googled and couldn’t find an obvious link to the famous family. I did find a guy named Michael Schumacher who works in logistics in Germany at an unrelated company, but I’ve used up my dad joke allowance and won’t make references to fast deliveries.

Moving on, this company has an enterprise value of €634 million and owns two “mega-box” plants in Germany focused on sustainable packaging, along with a bunch of other facilities. This is therefore a deal to acquire complementary assets in the Corrugated Packaging business at Mondi that add substantially to Mondi’s capacity and footprint.

Mondi is also using this to gain access to an eCommerce customer base in Germany and wider Europe, with the goal of putting more Mondi products in front of existing customers of Schumacher Packaging.

With adjusted EBITDA of €66 million in 2023, this deal is priced at a trailing EV/EBITDA multiple of 9.6x. That’s arguably on the high side, with Mondi expecting a significant increase in EBITDA at this asset going forward. There are also cost synergies, as you’ll see in any major deal rationale.

To help deliver these benefits, the co-CEOs of Schumacher Packaging (Bjoern and Hendrik Schumacher) will be sticking around in key roles. The announcement was light on details, but I hope that there’s some kind of earn-out or delayed payment structure in place to incentivise the sellers to help drive a successful transition.

They expect the deal to close in the first half of 2025.


More good news in property – this time from Schroder European Real Estate (JSE: SCD)

Property values are on the up

As we saw just the other day at European real estate peer Sirius Real Estate, property values in the region are starting to head the right way again. Schroder European Real Estate has added to that narrative and they are making it very clear, by noting in the heading of the latest announcement that “stabilisation of portfolio values continues as global interest rate hiking cycle comes to an end” – couldn’t have put it any better myself, really.

In truth, their portfolio was down -0.1% this quarter after a +0.1% move in the previous quarter, so things aren’t exciting yet. The point is that the bleeding has stopped, with hopefully only strong momentum from here.

The portfolio has an solid occupancy rate of 96%. As I said earlier in the week in the Sirius update, you can’t rely purely on the macroeconomics to drive values higher. The properties also need to be of sufficient quality to see the upswing.

The fund’s loan-to-value is 33% based on gross asset value and 25% net of cash. This means that the balance sheet is in decent shape.


Nibbles:

  • Director dealings:
    • The CEO of Woolworths (JSE: WHL) sold shares worth R26 million. The announcement notes that a portion is to cover taxes and the rest is for a “portfolio rebalancing” – but doesn’t indicate in which proportion. Either way, the CEO selling rather than buying shares after a 9.6% year-to-date decrease isn’t a bullish signal at all.
    • The CEO of AVI (JSE: AVI) received share awards and sold the whole lot to the value of R11.1 million. AVI is up 32% year-to-date and has had a hard run, so this is an indication that the rally might have been too strong.
  • NEPI Rockcastle (JSE: NRP) has closed the disposal of Promenada Novi Sad in Serbia. The deal was first announced in July 2024. Cash proceeds of €177 million have been received by the fund.
  • Vunani (JSE: VUN) has renewed the cautionary announcement related to a potential disposal of a minority shareholding in a subsidiary. As always, there’s no deal until there’s a deal!
  • Old Mutual (JSE: OMU) announced that CFO Casper Troskie has agreed to remain in the role until April 2027. This is to ensure continuity during major strategic projects.

IG MARKETS PODCAST: The Trader’s Handbook Ep8 – index trading opportunities

In Episode 8 of The Trader’s Handbook, we dive into the world of stock index trading, offering insights from Shaun Murison of IG Markets.

Learn why indices are an attractive option for traders, providing broad market exposure, lower risk compared to single stocks, and significant cost advantages. We discuss key concepts like leverage, liquidity, and how index trading can be more efficient for active traders due to lower barriers and 24-hour market access.

Beyond trading, Shaun highlights the use of indices for hedging strategies, helping long-term investors protect their portfolios in volatile markets. With practical tips on technical indicators such as RSI and stochastic oscillators, this episode provides a well-rounded look at trading strategies that can enhance your trading toolkit.

Listen to the episode below and enjoy the full transcript for reference purposes:


Transcript:

The Finance Ghost: Welcome to episode eight of The Trader’s Handbook, a really great series of podcasts that, as you probably guessed, are all about trading. If you’re only joining us now at episode eight, don’t worry, you’ll still learn some cool stuff today, but I certainly recommend that you go back and listen to the other seven episodes. There’s some really good stuff in there. And if you’ve been with us since the beginning, thank you and welcome to the latest show.

As you know, if you’ve been listening, we’ve spent quite a lot of time with Shaun Murison from IG Markets South Africa, just talking about the opportunities and risks that lie in trading stocks in particular. Stocks are very much my background, more investing in them than trading in them. and I’ve learnt some really fun stuff by playing around in my demo account, something that is highly, highly recommended.

I’m not really a forex or commodity person, but I know we’re going to cover them in shows to come and I certainly look forward to learning more about that. But something I am, is a stock index person, although historically I’ve done it through just buying exchange traded funds and getting broad market exposure, it’s very much that investment approach. But of course, these indices are also really helpful for trading. We felt it’s a pretty natural progression now to move from having talked about stocks for the past few shows into doing one on stock indices.

Essentially what an index is, is just a basket of stocks that follows a set of rules. Now, the rules may vary and there are a lot of different indices out there, but some of the big ones, some of the ones that you’ll certainly know offhand are things like the JSE All-Share index for local traders, that is the go-to that is obviously an index. The clue is in the name there. Things like the S&P 500, the Nasdaq 100, the Nikkei 225, all of these names that you see as tickers along the screen if you watch any of the financial media, TV shows or anything of the sort, those are stock indices. And these are a huge part of the market, Shaun. For traders, I would imagine this is probably even more of a focus than single stocks, isn’t it?

Shaun Murison: Indices, as you correctly mentioned, are a nice way of trading the market. It’s simply instead of picking one stock, which obviously has inherent risk, corporate risk etc. you group them together and you trade them as an index. I think there’s a natural progression for traders. A lot of people are introduced into the market, they start trading shares, they learn the mechanics of trading shares and then they start to progress to things like indices that can be a little bit more fast moving, but certainly holds a whole host of opportunities. Essentially what you’re doing is you’re taking a view on the success or failure of a group of shares rather than just one share. You’re diluting your risk, essentially.

The Finance Ghost: Absolutely, and that’s the reason why people like it from an investment perspective as well, right? You’re buying an ETF, you’re tracking an index, you’re getting a whole lot of exposure in one shot, which is quite nice. Obviously for traders it’s not that different. You’re getting that broad exposure. You’re not sitting with one stock that can go and release an announcement out of nowhere and suddenly move 20% or 30% or 40%. We’ve dealt with some of that in our risk management discussions on previous shows, how stocks can gap down, potentially gap past a stop loss if you don’t have a guaranteed stop loss in place, of course they can gap up as well and deliver you wonderful returns, but you can’t assume that that’s the direction of travel. Unfortunately, the shocks to the market are often on the way down. So in an index, you’re just not going to see those crazy moves unless there’s a cataclysmic global event. And even then, a huge correction will still take, you know, a few days. It’s not going to gap down 30% in a day, right?

Shaun Murison: I don’t want to say it’s never going to gap down 30% in a day because we haven’t seen that…

The Finance Ghost: Yeah, we won’t, we won’t tempt fate, right?

Shaun Murison: Very unlikely – I think the biggest moves we’ve seen on major indices, range between – actually recently we saw Asian markets really jumping higher on stimulus efforts there and we saw things like the Shanghai Composite, obviously representation of the Asian markets up 7% in a day or the Hang Seng index up 7% in a day. So outsized moves can happen, but they definitely seem less probable than if you’re looking at an individual equity. I just want to say, when you look at those groups of shares, quite often when you look at those indices, they are concentrated. So it might be, you know, if we’re trading in South Africa, we’d look at something like the top 40 index, the top 40 most liquid stocks on the JSE. But quite often you find that the top ten companies have the highest weighting and account for even more than 50%, which is the case on the JSE Top 40 index. You’ve got 10 shares there, I think with a cumulative weighting on that index sitting at about 53%.

The Finance Ghost: It is a fascinating thing to sort of add to your toolkit, right, is trading the index, not just trading the stocks. So let’s talk about some of the differences between the index versus the stocks. I mean, I would imagine it’s still a CFD, so nothing changes there. You’re still buying and selling to. Are there any other major differences that we should highlight here in terms of the actual mechanics of how the trading works versus shares?

Shaun Murison: Just to reiterate, a contract for difference could be on anything. It could be on a pencil! Obviously, here we’re looking at financial markets, so when you’re trading a share in CFD form, you’re trading a difference in price between your buy and your sell. You’re trading the index, you’re still trading it as a CFD with IG. It is the difference between the price that you buy for and then the price that you sell for. I think the difference there you’d look at when you’re trading a share, shares are priced in cents, and so it’s the difference in cents value when an index is priced in points. It’s a difference in points value. You just need to pick a contract size.

What does one point mean? Well, one point is in the value associated with it. So, you know, I just keep referencing our local market, the top 40 index, which is obviously a very popular product that we offer, and you could trade that contract at R2 a point or R10 a point or R50 a point per contract. If the index moves ten points in your favor and you’re trading at R10 a point, then you’ve made R100. Other things to consider is that generally with indices, like products like forex and commodities, they carry a higher degree of leverage. So again, just in the simplest of forms, leverage just how much your profits or losses are magnified in the market. To take a trade, you require a smaller deposit relative to the exposure or the value of your transaction within the market.

The Finance Ghost: Okay, that makes sense. It just makes it more efficient for traders, right? I mean, that’s the whole idea there.

Shaun Murison: Exactly. Easier to get it now and to magnify short term moves.

The Finance Ghost: And I think in some of our discussions historically, you mentioned to me that it is cheaper to trade the index than the underlying shares. Is that the case? And then what are the costs for a local index versus a global index? Is there any difference there?

Shaun Murison: When you’re looking at trading a share, you are looking at paying a commission in and a commission out. You’re going to pay a commission fee when you buy and when you sell. Now, shares will have an underlying market spread, which is another cost to consider in your trading, right? When you’re looking at shares, that’s not a cost that IG refers to their client or passes on to their client. It’s just something that’s naturally inherent in the market. When you’re trading indices with IG, the difference is you don’t pay a commission charge for your transactions. What you do is add points to the spread and those points are significantly cheaper than what you would pay when you’re trading a share. For example, if you’re trading a local share on the JSE, that commission fee would be 0.2% when you buy and then 0.2% when you sell. Then of course there’s that underlying market spread as well. If you’re trading the South Africa 40 index, it’s how we label it on our platform. IG’s cost on that to the client would be about six points either side. So twelve points, if you look at that as a percentage of what your total cost is, it’s like 0.015% as opposed to 0.2%. So, it’s considerably cheaper.

And when you start looking at global indices, the popular ones like the DAX (the Germany 40 index), or things like the Nasdaq, it’s all relative. And actually as a percentage of your exposure, those costs are actually even less because those are very, very highly liquid markets on an international front.

The Finance Ghost: Okay, that makes sense, I can see why traders like it. They get the benefit of lots of diversification. The costs are better and it’s more efficient in terms of leverage. All of this is actually good stuff. And I guess one of the other pros must surely be liquidity. I feel like there’s always someone on the other side of a trade on a broad market index. That’s not always the case on the smaller stocks. You can confirm that that’s the case, if possible? And then what other advantages are there here that we haven’t actually already touched on that would make people consider trading the index?

Shaun Murison: Extremely liquid, like you correctly said, a lot of volume going through on that, which makes it easier to get in and out of trades. Sometimes with a share, liquidity can dry up and so the price that you want to get out at might be a little bit less favourable. Also obviously fix things like your stop loss, reducing the sort of amount of slippage you might get if things did go unfavourably against you.

If you look at things like the higher leverage and reduced costs, it becomes more suitable if you’re an active day trader, obviously, because cost would be a barrier to making a profit.

IG also offers 24-hour markets on a lot of these indices, including the South African Top 40 Index. Underlying market hours based off the futures exchange for that Top 40 Index would be 08:30 to 05:30 but we offer a 24-hours market. Once it moves outside of that, it correlates to what’s happening in international markets. You can trade that pretty much 24 hours a day, five days a week.

Just to add to that as well, we keep talking about the speculative side of trading, looking to make short-term profit. But there are other uses for things like an index. So, for example, if you had a long-term investment portfolio and a number of different shares in there, and you’re worried about the market starting to come off, it could be quite costly for you to exit your position in the market. All those positions, you think, okay, well the market might come down, I might close all those shares, you’re going to incur all those commission charges and all those costs. Another way to view it is you could do something like take a short position on the Top 40 index because it’s a representation of a number of those shares, those liquid shares on an underlying market.

You could take a short position. Remember, a short position, taking a trade with a view expecting the market to fall, maybe in the short-term. And so if the market was to fall, you would generate a profit on your index position, which would offset the losses on your equity position. It can be used as a hedging tool as well, not just as a speculative tool.

The Finance Ghost: Yeah, very nice. Many, many ways to do things in the markets. That’s of course, what makes it so fascinating and why we all love it so much. Of course, nothing can be all good, surely. There’s got to be some cons to trading an index. Obviously, the one that jumps out at me just comes from my background as a more fundamental investor, I want to go and read a management narrative and go and look at a balance sheet and go and look at their margins. And of course, when you’re doing an index, you’re doing that for 40 stocks, you’re not actually looking at those details at all. You’re really looking at a macro view.

I guess you’ve got to be careful with some of the underlying constituents. The South African index would be quite mining heavy, for example, whereas in the US it’s very tech heavy. You still need to know what’s in there. There’s still research required, but it’s definitely a different kind of research. I don’t think you’re going and reading an earnings transcript too often to make a decision about an index. So that would be the one thing that jumps out at me. But I don’t even know if that’s a con, really. It’s just the nature of the beast. Are there any genuine cons around trading indices?

Shaun Murison: When you’re trading an index, I think it comes back to leverage. I think I’ve said it before on the earlier podcast, with great leverage comes great responsibility. Because your losses can be magnified more and because the index is leveraged more, it is something to consider. But I think if a person’s responsible about and fully understands that side of things, I think they can mitigate that risk. Now, coming to what you’re saying about the companies, they still have an effect on the index, so you can still do your deep research on those top ten companies. It’s actually quite a strong banking weighting after the elections this year, we saw quite a strong move on the banking side. When you start looking, you could do some sort of sectorial analysis as well on that, at the moment you’re looking at, I think it’s about 25% weighting of banks in the index, and then basic resources probably sitting about 20% weighting there. There is a case to be made that you can use some of the conventional deep dive stuff that you do from your fundamental background, but yeah, going back to the risk question, I think the leveraged traders need to understand leverage, but I think that applies across the board, whether you’re trading forex commodities, shares or indices, because high risk, high reward leverage is really something to consider and to be aware of if you want to manage your trading risk.

The Finance Ghost: So one last question, just around the indices, in terms of the strategies that people might use with them, I would imagine that day traders, this is probably their jam, right? Doing the index trading because of the liquidity, because of the costs and the efficiency and that kind of thing. I don’t think you can day trade stocks very easily. Maybe the very liquid stuff, sure. But would it be a fair assumption that this is where your day traders, your scalpers will kind of play?

Shaun Murison: Yeah, because that barrier towards making a profit is reduced from your cost, this is definitely a product that is suitable. People do still day trade shares. It’s not something that’s not done because sometimes you’ll get a huge movement on a share. You’re balancing off leverage. So shares might not be leveraged as much, but you know, obviously sometimes you can get bigger movements on shares, so they can actually be a little bit more volatile. When we talk about volatility, we talk about that range of price movement. But indices are quite interesting if you’re looking at just broad macro news. The scalpers might look at general news during the course of the day, they look for big news events, whether it’s around interest rates, growth, inflation, things like that. Look at when those news items are coming out, looking at what the expectation is, when that news is coming out, expecting a movement on the index because it’s a representation of the economy, essentially.

Nice product to trade when you’re trading news, which does obviously lend itself to day trading, but not exclusively to day trading. Obviously, we have uses like the hedging which we talked about as well, and you can take a longer-term view on that as well, but certainly a lot of appetite for the very short-term trading using indices.

The Finance Ghost: Perfect. I think let’s move on to that part of the show now where we deal with some technical indicators. This is the approach we’ve taken in the past few shows where right at the end we deal with some techs, just because it’s a lot to kind of take in and try to deal with as an entire show.

As always, I’ll include a chart in the show notes. I’ll go and have a look at the IG Markets Academy to go and see what great stuff you’ve got on this topic and maybe pull something from there to refer our listeners to.

We’ve covered trend lines in the past couple of shows. We’ve done support and resistance lines, and this is really important stuff. This really helps you see points on the chart where things might change direction or continue where they were headed, for that matter. And both of those things are really useful pieces of information. Now, something else that is very helpful is trying to understand whether a chart is overbought or oversold. That, I suppose, indicates whether or not things might change direction. Given if it’s overbought, then it may well start to turn lower. And if it’s oversold, it may start to turn higher. Who knows? But, you know, you try and use all these indicators to form a view. I think if you could just give us an overview of this approach and the value of doing it, and then, of course, some of the mechanisms that you actually use in making this assessment of whether something is overbought or oversold.

Shaun Murison: Okay, great. I think let’s just define overbought and oversold first. When you talk about oversold conditions, suggesting that a market, a share or whatever financial assets it is, has fallen and maybe it’s fallen a little bit too much – maybe that decline is reaching a short-term end and we could see a rebound in price. Then that’s oversold. Overbought would be the opposite. Maybe we’ve seen quite a strong rally and the price is looking a little bit overextended, I think that rally could be coming to an end and possibly changing direction.

Now, there are a number of technical indicators that you can use that are available, obviously, on the IG platform. They can assist with assessing overbought and oversold conditions, seen as a short-term indicator. And those are indicators which include, I think the popular ones are stochastic and the RSR, referred to as the Relative Strength index, or RSI for short. All the traders out there and the guys that are new to technical analysis, I think you can combine this type of indicator with some of the stuff we’ve talked about before.

We’ve talked about trends in the market. Markets don’t generally move in a straight line. If the market’s in an uptrend, you might wait for a bit of a pullback, you don’t want to buy at the top, you want to wait for the first little bit of weakness to join that longer term trend and oversold signal marks give us an indication maybe now that that short-term dip is over and we can continue to rally. Likewise, in a downtrend, if we see markets trending lower, it’s looking a little bit oversold and we might expect a bit of a bounce. And then when it gets to overbought conditions, we might say, okay, well, that bounce has ended. Maybe that’s an opportunity to sell into the market or to take a short position. It’s a nice indication that you can add other forms of technical analysis.

The Finance Ghost: And again, this is stuff that you can just draw on a chart on the IG platform. This is an option available to you as a technical indicator?

Shaun Murison: Yeah. All these indicators are available to you on the chart on the mobile device, on the online platform.

Source: IG Markets South Africa Academy

The Finance Ghost: Fantastic. There is a really good article on the IG website around the stochastics and the RSI and all this kind of thing. I’ll obviously make sure that I include that in the show notes. And I really do encourage people to just go and read up about it and also go check out the stuff we’ve talked about previously, the trend lines, the support and resistance lines. The stuff really does make a significant difference.

Shaun, last question from my side, maybe just taking us back to indices and to close there, is it the case that most South African traders, or at least that the most popular among South African traders would be the All-Share index? Do you kind of see that familiarity bias coming through where people want to focus on that, rather than stuff very far away? S&P, Nasdaq, Nikkei, whatever the case may be, do our local traders tend to lift their gaze to all of the international opportunities available to them?

Shaun Murison: I think, like I was saying earlier on, there’s a bit of a journey. We have traders come in, they usually start with shares and then they progress to indices. That appetite seems to be quite strong. From the local account where you can trade that Top 40 index, a vast majority of trades go through on the index rather than shares. I think it’s more than 60%. I don’t have the exact figure for you. And then we do have a split. The range of products that guys trade offshore is generally currencies, indices, and some commodities, popular commodities, things like gold and oil.

The Finance Ghost: Shaun, thank you so very much for your time again this week, and lots and lots of good stuff still to come in the series. We will, as you’ve talked to that, get to some of the other asset classes like forex, like commodities, etc. There’s still lots of technical stuff to talk about and to the listeners, I think send through ideas of what you want us to talk about. We would love to respond to the burning questions you have. You can reach out to us on the socials or whatever the case may be, and we’ll certainly make sure that we try and cover some of that. And Shaun, to you, thanks for your time. I’m sure the Chinese stimulus has caused lots and lots of activity among the trading community in the IG Markets community, so they must be keeping you pretty busy out there in China.

Thanks for your time and I look forward to doing the next one with you.

Shaun Murison: Awesome. Thanks very much.

The Finance Ghost: Thank you.

GHOST BITES (AYO Technology – Mustek | Insimbi Industrial Holdings | Sanlam | Visual International)


AYO Technology sells Cyberantix to Mustek (JSE: AYO | JSE: MST)

This is a small deal valued at R20 million

Sizwe Africa IT Group is a 55% subsidiary of AYO Technology. This subsidiary has agreed to sell its 70% stake in Cyberantix to Mustek for a total consideration of R20 million. If you therefore apply the different shareholding levels, you’ll see that AYO only has a 38.5% look-through interest in Cyberantix.

In case you’re wondering, the other 30% shareholder in Cyberantix is NIL Data Africa, a party that isn’t related to AYO.

Cyberantix is a cybersecurity group. This is a good space to be in but is obviously hypercompetitive as well. The group needs more investment to reach its full potential and this doesn’t suit Sizwe Africa’s priorities right now. Instead, Sizwe Africa will take the proceeds from this deal and use them for other purposes, with a plan to put in place a strategic partnership with an already-scaled cybersecurity provider.

It’s a pity that Mustek didn’t release an announcement related to the deal, as they had an opportunity here to tell their story in terms of their plans here.

Cyberantix made profit of R4 million in the year ended June 2024. Sizwe Africa is selling a 70% stake for R20 million, which implies a value for the full group of R28.6 million and therefore a price/earnings multiple being paid by Mustek of 7.2x. It’s more complicated than that however, as the R20 million is split across claims (i.e. shareholder loans) of R12 million and shares of R8 million.

Although this technically brings the Price/Earnings multiple down to far better levels, these claims tend to be soft loans in nature and the reality is that Mustek is parting with R20 million for a 70% stake, regardless of how we cut it. That feels like a very good price for Sizwe Africa and a worryingly high multiple for Mustek.


Insimbi has given a tighter range for its earnings – or losses, I should say (JSE: ISB)

Thankfully, there are some non-recurring expenses in here

Insimbi Industrial Holdings has released yet another trading statement, this time giving a much more accurate range for the earnings for the six months to August. They are in the red, not just in terms of trajectory, but overall.

The headline loss per share is expected to be between -1.1 cents and -1.3 cents, a nasty swing from positive HEPS in the comparable period of 15.46 cents.

Although lower economic activity in South Africa over the period is one of the factors, they highlight various others as well: foreign exchange losses, once-off transaction costs for the rather elegant reverse asset-for-share transaction and other once-offs like retrenchment costs and legal fees. Interest rates aren’t helping either.

Detailed results are expected to be announced on 18 October.


Sanlam is the proud owner of Assupol (JSE: SLM)

The deal has now closed

Sanlam isn’t shy of doing deals, that’s for sure. The financial services giant operates across various emerging and frontier markets and always seems to be involved in some kind of transaction.

The Assupol deal was first announced in February 2024 and has now closed, so that’s a pretty quick transaction by usual corporate standards. The deal gives Sanlam additional reach into the Retail Mass market, which is a priority area for the group.

In life, you can either build it or buy it. Building it takes a long time, which is why many listing companies choose to buy instead.


Visual International looks to capitalise debt (JSE: VIS)

This means settling creditors through the issue of shares

A company is funded by either debt or equity. Technically, they are interchangeable, although only one of them can lead to bankruptcy. If you can convince a debt holder to become an equity investor instead, then it does a wonderful job of “plugging a hole” in a balance sheet.

Imagine if your bank offered to become a co-investor in your house instead, with no further interest payable. Lovely, right?

Capitalising debt (i.e. turning it into equity) is rare, as it requires debt holders to give up their preferential status in return for potentially more upside. In practice, it’s even more unusual to see it happen in a positive context. Usually, it’s to save a company. You also won’t find banks agreeing to this too often, so it only really works for debt in the form of shareholder loans or private equity investors with mezzanine structures (a mix of debt and equity invested in a company).

Visual International has announced that it will “restore the strength of the balance sheet” through extinguishing liabilities in the company through the issuance of shares. They will issue shares at a price of 4 cents per share, despite the current market price being 3 cents per share.

This should immediately tell you that the people agreeing to this have more to lose than just their loans. Indeed, the majority of the creditors are related parties. By issuing shares at a premium rather than a discount, the company doesn’t need to get a fairness opinion for the related party deal.

They will, however, need to issue a circular and get shareholder approval.


Nibbles:

  • Director dealings:
    • The CEO of AVI (JSE: AVI) received a share award and sold the whole lot to the value of R8.2 million. Remember, executives can choose to only sell the portion needed to cover taxes, so a decision to sell everything is a decision not to retain any shares over and above tax. In other words, it’s like any other sale of shares.
    • A senior executive of Anglo American (JSE: AGL) sold shares worth a meaty £725k.
    • A director of Heriot REIT (JSE: HET) bought shares worth R225k.
  • Salungano (JSE: SLG) has renewed the cautionary announcement regarding business rescue proceedings at Keaton Energy. The next key milestone is a liquidation hearing scheduled on 11 October.
  • Absa (JSE: ABG) has received regulatory approval for the appointment of Charles Russon as Interim CEO to replace Arrie Rautenbach. They also needed approval for Yasmin Masithela as Interim CEO of the Corporate Executive and Investment Bank.
  • Southern Palladium (JSE: SDL) has appointed Roger Baxter as Executive Chairman of the company. He will focus on investor and government relations, while Managing Director Johan Odendaal will focus on the Bengwenyama Project itself. Speaking of that project, they expect to release the results of the pre-feasibility study before the end of October.
  • Astral Foods (JSE: ARL) announced that Frans van Heerden, Executive Director and Managing Director: Poultry Commercial will be leaving the group. He’s accepted a career outside of the poultry industry. For the sake of his wellbeing, I hope it’s in an industry with higher margins! Poultry is tough.
  • Greg Heron, previously of Leaf Property Fund and currently the CEO of Infinitus Holdings, is joining the board of Heriot REIT (JSE: HET) as a non-executive director. Although I generally ignore non-executive director appointments, a director with extensive experience in the same industry joining the board is worth a mention in my books, particularly at smaller listed companies.
  • Another thing I look out for is changes to the lead independent director, with Thabo Leeuw resigning from that role at RFG Holdings (JSE: RFG) after being on the board for 11 years.
  • Even though Chrometco (JSE: CMO) is suspended from trading, they still have to release things like cautionary announcements as they are technically still a listed company. Thy have renewed the cautionary announcements related to discussions around a major subsidiary.

GHOST BITES (Calgro M3 | Datatec | Jubilee Metals | Richemont | Sirius Real Estate)

Get the latest recap of JSE news in the Ghost Wrap podcast, brought to you by Mazars:


Calgro M3’s executives are going out on a high (JSE: CGR)

With major changes at the top, Calgro’s business is on a strong footing

Calgro M3 has released a trading statement for the six months to August 2024. This will be the last set of results presented by the outgoing CEO Wikus Lategan and his right-hand man Waldi Joubert. Although the market already knows about these changes, it’s worth reminding you of the good news that Sayuri Naicker remains as the CFO, so there’s some continuity in the C-Suite. Ben Pierre Malherbe will be returning to the group as its CEO.

Malherbe will be walking into a group that is on a solid footing, with HEPS for the period up by between 23.54% and 33.54%. No further details are given but you won’t have to wait long, as results are due on 14th October.


Datatec has flagged really strong earnings growth (JSE: DTC)

All divisions have a good story to tell

Datatec has released a trading statement for the six months to August 2024. They can feel proud of these numbers, with HEPS up by between 58.7% and 74.6%. If you are willing to use underlying earnings per share (with various adjustments that Datatec believes are in line with peers), then the growth rate is 50.7% to 64.4%.

The great news is that whichever way you cut it, that’s a fantastic growth rate.

The trading statement also tells us that all divisions were up for this period, with Logicalis International “strongly” increasing profitability.

Detailed results are due for release on 24 October.


Jubilee Metals pulls the trigger on Project G (JSE: JBL)

The due diligence has been concluded and they are acquiring a 65% stake

Jubilee Metals is a diversified metals producer focused on Zambia and South Africa. The Zambia story is all about copper, with various initiatives underway. One of the possibilities on the radar has been Project G, an open pit copper mining operation in Zambia. Jubilee Metals has been busy with a due diligence on the opportunity and has made the decision to go for it, making this the second open-pit mining operation acquired by Jubilee.

In fact, they’ve decided to take a 65% stake rather than the 51% stake that was initially intended. They must have really liked what they saw in the due diligence. To fund the deal, they will pay $2 million in cash with a commitment to invest a further $500k into upgrading the operations. The idea is that Project G will supply pre-concentrated run-of-mine to the Sable Refinery, so you can see the Jubilee strategy coming together.

Jubilee initially planned to pay for the acquisition in shares rather than cash. The change of heart is interesting and no further details are given in the announcement as to why this happened.

In additional news in the same update, Jubilee has secured more power under the private power purchase agreement to ensure that all Zambian operations are supplied under that agreement. This means the entire Zambian strategy is being powered by renewable energy.

Despite all this good stuff, the cycle hasn’t been kind to the Jubilee Metals share price:


Richemont finds a home for the mess that is YOOX NET-A-PORTER (JSE: CFR)

But are they just throwing good money after bad?

Online luxury remains an oddity for me. To be fair, the entire luxury sector doesn’t make a huge amount of sense to me. Call me a simpleton, but I am never going to buy a pair of shoes that costs the same as a flight overseas. I’m therefore no expert in how such consumers are willing to shop for this stuff, but even with that disclaimer out the way, I suspect that those in the luxury market enjoy the experience of going to a boutique and feeling fancy. There’s absolutely nothing fancy about logging onto a boring-looking website and buying luxury products.

YOOX NET-A-PORTER hasn’t worked out well for Richemont. I’m sure there are many reasons why, but the share price of Mytheresa (the group buying YOOX from Richemont) tells me that my thesis about online-only luxury stores isn’t far off the mark:

Of course, with a well-timed IPO in the frothy times of 2021, it was unlikely that things would go well for the share price from there. Still, a drop of 87% since then is quite extraordinary.

If you’re a Richemont shareholder, you might be feeling relieved at the prospect of being out of YOOX. I’m afraid that it’s not that simple. Mytheresa is buying YOOX for EUR 555 million, but is paying for the acquisition by issuing shares to Richemont. This will leave Richemont with a 33% stake in Mytheresa.

So, there’s no cash unlock here. In fact, it’s quite the opposite, as Richemont is providing a EUR 100 million revolving credit facility to YNAP. Putting money into a company to help it go away seems to be the theme of the JSE recently, with flavours of the recent news at Spar and Transaction Capital to this deal.

Of course, Richemont puts a much more positive spin on it. They talk about creating a multi-brand digital group of scale and global reach. With Richemont expecting a write-down of EUR 1.3 billion for YOOX as part of this deal, it’s hard to find much of a silver lining here. In reality, this deal just gives Richemont some optionality into online luxury and the hope that a larger platform may be the way to get it right in this space.


Sirius expects property valuations to start increasing (JSE: SRE)

This is exactly why I’ve been long the property sector for months now

When interest rates start dropping, there is an overall decrease in yields in the market. This means that investors don’t have any many options elsewhere to earn strong yields, so they are willing to pay a bit more for the dividends coming out of property funds. This effect cascades down into the portfolios, where property values also increase as yields come down and investors are willing to pay more for each property. All of this contributes to higher share prices in the sector.

After a rough period in European markets due to a high interest rate environment, things have turned the corner. Rates have started decreasing and that is lovely news for property funds, as they enjoy the double benefit of cheaper debt and better property valuations. I’ve been writing about this for months and it is finally happening, with Sirius Real Estate noting an expectation that property valuations in the UK and German should increase in the six months to September 2024.

Of course, growth can’t just be driven by a change in rates. The underlying properties also need to perform. Sirius managed a 5.5% like-for-like increase in the rent roll for the period, which means they are growing ahead of inflation. For a property fund, that’s the primary goal as this is what investors are looking for. A 14.9% increase in the overall rent roll is a less helpful metric, as this simply reflects how acquisitive Sirius has been.

Germany has marginally outperformed the UK, which is slightly surprising for me given the challenges being faced by the German economy at the moment. It all comes down to the specific underlying properties, of course.

The acquisitions are set to continue, as Sirius raised €180 million in July 2024 for the purposes of further acquisitions in Germany and the UK. The balance sheet is strong and there are no significant debt maturities until June 2026.

Detailed results are due on 18th November.


Nibbles:

  • Director dealings:
    • Des de Beer is at it again, buying shares in Lighthouse Properties (JSE: LTE) worth R27.7 million.
    • A director and prescribed officer of Standard Bank (JSE: SBK) sold shares worth a collective R3.9 million.
    • The COO of Italtile (JSE: ITE) has sold shares worth R3 million. Although improved local sentiment and decreasing interest rates will help that business, the share price has run hard and they are facing strong competition in the market, so that’s a useful signal I think.
    • The share awards at Aspen (JSE: APN) were a mixed bag, with some directors and prescribed officers retaining all the awards, others selling to cover the tax and some selling in full. I appreciate the level of disclosure by the company in this regard.
  • Back in August, Hulamin (JSE: HLM) alerted the market to a fire that caused damage on Coil Coating Line 2. Two months later, plant repairs have been completed and the plant has been recommissioned for production.
  • Stefanutti Stocks (JSE: SSK) announced that the parties to the transaction for the disposal of SS-Construções in Mozambique have agreed to extend the fulfilment date for conditions precedent to 30 November 2024.
  • There’s trouble at Acsion (JSE: ACS), with BDO resigning as the auditor with immediate effect and not for happy reasons. BDO notes that Acsion “lacks sufficiently adequate resources to be able to release the financial statements” and that their invoices for cost overruns were not being met with a response from the company. Sounds messy.
  • AVI (JSE: AVI) will pay its special dividend on 21 October, so keep an eye out for it if you’re a shareholder there.

GHOST STORIES: Global Mobility – Common Mistakes by Employers and Employees

In this Ghost Stories podcast and accompanying transcript, Elzahne Henn of Forvis Mazars in South Africa sheds light on the common mistakes and misconceptions related to cross-border employment, such as South Africans working abroad, or working in South Africa but for a foreign company. These insights are valuable for employers and employees alike.

LISTEN TO THE PODCAST:

TRANSCRIPT:

The Finance Ghost: Welcome to this episode of the Ghost Stories podcast. It’s one that I’m really, really looking forward to because I think we’re going to learn a lot.

If you’ve clicked on this podcast, it’s because the title jumped out at you and you are either an employer or an employee who wants to make sure that your tax is compliant and that you don’t fall into any of the traps. They become quite complicated when we’re talking about cross-border stuff and thankfully we have Elzahne Henn here. She is responsible for private client and global mobility services at Forvis Mazars in South Africa.

Elzahne, thank you so much for your time today. I think it’s a technical topic, but it’s such an important one. This is exactly the kind of stuff where people can really get themselves into trouble and incur penalties, or worse. It’s one of those things that people just have to pay attention to, isn’t it?

Elzahne Henn: Absolutely. It’s become so such a popular topic just globally with remote workers and very importantly, the government and regulatory authorities definitely have their eye on these people. So, it’s very important to consider the compliance obligations.

The Finance Ghost: Yeah, I mean, this is really a hangover of COVID, right? People get all these remote working and digital nomad type jobs, they are techies or whatever it is that they do, and they feel like they can go and either live somewhere else in the world or work for a foreign employer while sitting here in South Africa. That’s very common. I have friends who are doing that. I think we have a broad skills base here in South Africa. The time zone is quite friendly for a lot of regions and that leads to work being outsourced here.

So maybe let’s start there, which is South African people, that is employees working in South Africa, but for a foreign employer. This is quite a common thing, I think. And there are considerations for both the employee and the employer, actually. Let’s maybe start with what the employer needs to think about. Is it as easy as just finding someone in South Africa and paying them a salary? How does that actually need to work in practice? What are some of the steps and where does it go wrong?

Elzahne Henn: for this type of scenario, the main concern for me would be from an employer perspective and what the employer’s obligations would be in the context of South Africa. Obviously, the employee sits in South Africa and we assume here that the employee is therefore tax resident in South Africa or is a South African citizen. For me, it’s about the employer’s obligations, that would be the first red flag. And secondly, also the method of payment where the employee is paid, because that’s where the risk for the employee lies.

So, maybe we can just start with the employee. We often experience that when a South African is paid by a foreign employer, the employee is under the impression that they can be paid into a foreign bank account, which there’s nothing wrong with, that the employer can pay into a foreign bank account. But if the services are rendered in South Africa or the employment is exercised in South Africa, one must remember that as a South African citizen sitting in South Africa, working for a foreign employer, you’re actually not allowed to keep those earnings in foreign currency. There is the general misconception I find with employees, is that they’re under the impression that they can keep these funds abroad, reinvested in foreign assets. But under the exchange control regulations, the employee that renders services in South Africa is actually required to remit those funds to South Africa or convert them to South African rands. They are not allowed to retain it in foreign currency.

Our experience recently is that due to all the amnesties and the voluntary disclosure, the Reserve Bank actually takes a very hard stance on this. It’s not just a slap on the wrist if they are discovered. Employees must be very careful when they are being paid into a foreign bank account. Just bear in mind not only the tax implications and the tax obligations in South Africa, but also the exchange control regulations.

The Finance Ghost: Elzahne, just to be clear on that, it’s not just that they have to declare that for tax? They can’t just do a return and say, hey, I earned this money from this employer. It actually needs to come back to South Africa. So even if they pay the tax on it and it’s sitting in London, that doesn’t work, they need to bring it back to rands?

Elzahne Henn: Correct. So, unfortunately, in South Africa, we’ve got the tax and the exchange control regulations to comply with. So, yeah, I think the risk is really, you know, a lot of people are happy that they really understand the tax obligations in South Africa, but they completely miss the point in respect of exchange control and their risk in relation to exchange control regulations.

The Finance Ghost: You know, it’s the old joke of “I’m really glad they taught me this in high school. You know, it really helped me so much in this trigonometry filing season.” – as opposed to the stuff that actually gets people into serious trouble. Anyway, sadly, none of this happens in high school, but it’s going to happen on this podcast, which is great. I think you’ve dealt with a very strong misconception to start with. I didn’t know that. I’ve never worked for a foreign employer, so luckily that’s fine. But that is not common knowledge, I don’t think.

And what is the requirement for these foreign employers? I mean, you can imagine as an employer sitting in the US or Europe, let’s say you’ve got employees all around the world and one of them happens to be in South Africa, is it as easy as just paying to a South African bank account? Because if you create lots of admin for that company to hire one South African, you can very quickly see that they just won’t do it, right? It must be quite a difficult situation.

Elzahne Henn: Yes, we’ve definitely come across situations where at the negotiation phase, the employer is made aware of that administrative burden and then there’s a backseat taken once they realise their reporting obligations.

There’s been a significant change, actually, in December 2023 that impacts foreign employers. In the past or before December 2023, foreign employers did have an obligation to register as employers for Skills Development Levy and Unemployment Insurance Fund contribution purposes, but they only had an obligation to withhold PAYE or employees’ tax if they had a representative agent in South Africa. What it meant was that unless there was an agent in South Africa that had the authority to pay the remuneration, a foreign employer actually had no obligation with regard to the withholding of PAYE.

There was a change that was then that came into effect in December 2023. Foreign employers now do have an obligation to withhold PAYE and register as employers for employees’ tax purposes if they do have a representative agent, but also if they have a permanent establishment in South Africa. Now, I don’t want to go into the technical detail on that, but basically they will have an obligation to withhold PAYE if the activities of the employee creates a tax presence or business presence for them in South Africa.

Then they will still have an obligation to withhold PAYE but, even if that was not the case, and then we say: “But there’s no permanent establishment created or there’s no agent in South Africa so there’s no PAYE obligation”, employers are still required to register for Skills Development and Unemployment Insurance Fund contributions. There’s a bit of an anomaly there in our legislation at present.

And, you know, it could be small amounts, but the administrative burden is huge because to register for these type of taxes, it requires the employee to register as an external company with CIPC, it requires them to open a bank account in South Africa to have a public officer, in other words, a representative taxpayer that’s resident in South Africa. So a huge administrative burden for foreign employer where they only have one or two employees in South Africa.

The Finance Ghost: I can just imagine trying to explain this in an interview stage, like: “Yes, you can have me, but here’s what you’re going to have to go through in order to do it.” I’m guessing, Elzahne this is obviously where you guys come in, in terms of helping people be compliant, the levels of non-compliance must be breathtaking? I would think, in this space.  People either just don’t know this stuff or they know it and then they just decide, well, that sounds like hard work, actually, I’m not going to take this seriously.

Elzahne Henn: Correct. Where there’s a permanent establishment created or there’s a representative taxpayer and there’s an obligation to pay PAYE, absolutely, I think foreign employees understand this globally and they understand their obligation. But where we advise the employer that there’s actually no obligation to withhold PAYE, but still this obligation to register for Skills Development Levy and Unemployment Insurance Fund contributions, which might be nominal if it’s only one employee, the costs to administer sometimes outweigh the penalties that they could face. But of course, it’s not just about the quantum of the penalties, it’s also the reputational risk for a foreign employer that doesn’t meet their obligations.

There probably is a lot of non-compliance, if it’s an economic decision taken based on the quantum of the penalties. But I think one has to seriously consider the reputational risk if you don’t comply and then how to account for the non-compliance.

The Finance Ghost: And this creates an entire industry of employers of reference, I think is the correct term? Literally companies that act as these agents. Is that a good solution? I mean, is that something that gets the job done? I guess it’s expensive for the employer, but the alternative is all the admin.

Elzahne Henn: Correct. I mean, there is obviously the added cost because now you’ve got a surface charge or a margin placed on the employment costs because now there’s a third party involved. Something to consider as well is the implications of our employment law or labour law. Who is the legal employee? Who is the economic employee? It could be a minefield where there is a third party that’s engaged, basically providing the employee to the foreign employer. Adding this additional party creates a minefield for tax, and of course, the employment law issues that could arise.

The Finance Ghost: Yeah, it’s pretty fascinating stuff, I think. Let’s move on to another category of people, which would be foreign persons working in South Africa for a foreign employer.

This is where someone is brought in, maybe by a company from overseas to work here for that foreign employer. Now we’re dealing with all kinds of cross border stuff. This is starting to sound like the United Nations! What are some of the major missteps there or difficulties that you’ve come across?

Elzahne Henn: I think the common misconception that we often find is where the foreign national is coming from a country where we’ve got a double tax agreement with the foreign country or the home country. So here we generally refer to South Africa in this context as the host country, and then the country of residence where the employee is coming from is the home country. Now, if there’s a double tax agreement, we so often find that the employee says, oh, but why do I have to pay tax in South Africa, we’ve got a double tax agreement with the home country? But one must always remember that although we’ve got a residence basis of taxation in South Africa, we’re actually running a dual system, or we apply a dual tax regime.

It’s residence based for South African tax residents, but in the context of non-residents, it’s a source-based system, right? If the employee comes to South Africa to exercise employment in South Africa or provide services from South Africa, we apply a source-based system of taxation, which means that if you earn remuneration or employment income for services that you render from South Africa, you’re liable for tax in South Africa. Yes, there could be relief available in terms of a double tax agreement, but at the end of the day, that relief is not automatic. You still have to file your tax return and claim that relief in terms of the double tax agreement in your tax return.

Also, the employer still has an obligation to register. As I mentioned, in the context of employing South African nationals, the employer still might have an obligation to register as an employer and withhold employee taxes, Skills Development Levy and Unemployment Insurance Fund contributions.

The Finance Ghost: So I think the point here is: it’s complicated, like a bad relationship status! Complicated things need a bit of help, which is thankfully Elzahne why people like you are around, because I can imagine how much you help your clients with just all of these complications. I mean, there’s so much to think about. There’s all the different labour law stuff, there’s exchange control, there’s SARS, there’s double tax agreements. It really is a minefield. I don’t think this is something that people can easily just go and figure out on their own. It doesn’t sound like it. This is not your basic little tax return where you go and check that the PAYE is right and you maybe let SARS know if you earn some interest. That’s not how this works. This is very complicated stuff, isn’t it?

Elzahne Henn: No, definitely. And, you know, you talk about foreign nationals coming to South Africa, one scenario. And South Africans being employed by a foreign employer, another scenario. I can promise you every single case is different because you’re looking at a different country, different periods that they spend in South Africa, different employment arrangements, different benefits that’s provided. So definitely a minefield and a number of issues to consider.

The Finance Ghost: Let’s do the other typical thing that we see here, which is people who, despite the Springboks, have decided to go and work somewhere else in the world, and they go and work for what would typically be a foreign employer, but they are South Africans, they are still South African tax residents, so they haven’t fully emigrated. I would imagine that must also get pretty complicated, because now they’re not even working in South Africa, they’re spending money elsewhere. And we all know how far your “randelas” get you overseas – the answer is not very far!

Do they end up paying tax there and here? Does it depend on the double tax agreement? Again, this must be a complicated situation, right?

Elzahne Henn: Yes. I think the crucial aspect with outbound employees is always their residency status. Interestingly, you mentioned that they remain SA residents. Well, not often. If they go to a country where we’ve got a double tax agreement, one must always bear in mind that they could cease to be tax resident under a double tax agreement. Although it’s the intention to return to South Africa one day and they still regard South Africa as their home, we often find that people moving to a country with whom we’ve got a double tax agreement actually cease to be tax resident under a double tax agreement, and then their basis of taxation would change.

It’s fairly simple if they do remain tax resident in South Africa, because all we have to do then is manage the foreign employment exemption. Employees that work overseas or outside South Africa could qualify for the foreign employment exemption, which is a maximum of R1.25 million per annum. But they have to spend the required number of days outside South Africa.

So that’s a fairly simple exemption. I say that very carefully because it’s not that simple. But basically, if they manage their days outside South Africa, they could qualify and the employer can apply that exemption as well when determining the tax to be withheld.  The issue becomes more complicated if they do cease to be tax resident.

I often find that, especially if it’s a South African employer – I mean, we did mention foreign employees, but obviously South African employers also send employees outside the borders of South Africa to work – these South African employers often just default to the conservative position of continuing to deduct employees tax. And then it’s a struggle to actually get those refunds once we file the tax returns for those employees, if the tax shouldn’t be withheld.

So one important aspect is to go through the process, and not at the end of an assignment or only once you file the tax return, but actually to consult with the employer as well as to where the tax should be withheld and reassess the employees [SL1] tax, residency status and the basis of taxation to ensure that, you know, on the one hand we want them to comply and pay the tax, but we don’t want them to pay tax that’s not due in South Africa and then try and fix it after the fact and get refunds, etc.

The Finance Ghost: Yeah, absolutely. That’s fascinating. And the residency stuff is important. You don’t want to end up with a CGT exit charge that you weren’t expecting because now you’re no longer resident in South Africa and that pretty house of yours that you hope to return to one day has now been deemed to be sold. And all your other assets and all the other craziness, right?

Elzahne Henn: Agree. Because the penalties by not paying the exit tax timeously, the underestimation penalties etc. – they can be substantial if there’s a substantial exit tax charge.

The Finance Ghost: Yeah, I think the point here is that, yes, you can kind of take the approach of hoping nothing goes wrong or whatever, but the reality is if it does, and it probably will, it’s going to be expensive and it’s going to be a real pain and it’s going to be time consuming. And I think, Elzahne, what’s interesting with what you do is you’re actually helping people avoid a lot of pain. And inevitably using professional advice here actually saves you money down the line because you are then hopefully avoiding penalties and everything else and all the costs of compliance that’s gone wrong.

I think that’s a really good reason for your clients to reach out to you. And my understanding is that you work with both private individuals and the employers. So both employers and employees who find themselves in this complicated situation, either side of that coin can reach out to you for assistance, you know, and that’s what you do in that team?

Elzahne Henn: Absolutely. We look after and advise the employee specifically, but also then the employer on its obligations with regard to payroll taxes. But very importantly, and as you mentioned, you know, this is an ongoing process as well. There’s obviously a planning phase to do this, to reach out to an advisor while in the planning phase, while busy with negotiations with regard to your move either abroad or to South Africa. Very important. But also that relationship, employer-employee relationship must also be reviewed on an ongoing basis because, you know, the legislation changed, the relationship might change, your tax residency status might change during the course of the assignment or during the course of the contract. It’s not just that initial consultation, it’s that ongoing engagement with your advisor to make them aware that, that things have changed during the assignment or the contract.

The Finance Ghost: Fantastic. Elzahne, thank you so much. And what is the best way for people to reach out to you if they need assistance?

Elzahne Henn: Obviously you can contact me by email or by phone. We’ve got a full team, a presence in Gqeberha, Johannesburg and Bloemfontein. They’re welcome to contact me directly. I’m in based in Cape Town, but obviously we service clients right through South Africa and then internationally as well.

The Finance Ghost: Great. I’ll make sure I include your LinkedIn and website details at Forvis Mazars in the show notes. Elzahne, thank you very much for your time. And to the listeners, I think it’s quite clear that there are a lot of complexities here. This is not something where you can just hope that it’s all going to be okay. Hope is not a strategy. Rather get it right and speak to Elzahne.

Elzahne Henn: Thank you for the opportunity.


Venice Biennale: The world at a glance

If art is a mirror, as the saying goes, then the Venice Biennale offers what can only be described as a panoramic reflection of the world in 2024. In this exclusive for Ghost Mail, Dominique Olivier takes you on a journey into how contemporary art is the outlet for humanity.

Say what you will about contemporary art, but you can’t argue the fact that it delivers a message like very few other things. Every two years, the Venice Biennale stands in as a kind of megaphone to amplify the voices of artists from almost every country in the world. Official statistics reveal that in 2022, more than 800,000 visitors attended this global art exhibition, which runs from April to November.

That’s a lot of people, looking at a lot of art. And this year, I was lucky enough to count myself among them to bring Ghost Mail readers an experiential look at this incredible event.

This year’s theme, “Foreigners Everywhere”, introduced works and conversations centred around immigration, refugees, exile, outsiders and those who live on the margins. It’s an evocative theme, made all the more relevant and powerful as hostilities between countries continue to play out in the background of the event.

The politics of space

It’s an awkward thing to have to represent your country on the international stage while you’re in the throes of war. Russia and Israel each have a private pavilion in the sought-after Giardini section of the Biennale, while Ukraine has a space in the shared Arsenale space a short walk away.

Before you wonder if there is some sort of favouritism in the allocation of pavilions – there genuinely isn’t. The Giardini (literally, “garden”) is the original site of the Biennale, which in its earliest days was confined to one building. As more countries were invited to participate over time, space became a problem in the main building. Biennale organisers started encouraging countries to invest in and build their own pavilions in the Giardini, with Belgium being the first to do so in 1907. Since then, 28 other countries have built pavilions, with Korea claiming the final spot in the Giardini in 1995.

The Giardini reached capacity at the end of the 90s. Countries not owning a pavilion started exhibiting in other venues across Venice, with the majority renting exhibition spaces in the restored Arsenale (the largest production centre in Venice during the pre-industrial era, responsible for churning out those famous Venetian galleons).

Russia built its pavilion in 1914, while Israel built theirs in 1952. Ukraine made its first appearance in the Arsenale in 2003, about eight years too late to claim a spot in the Giardini.

You’re probably wondering how our local artists make do at the Biennale. After being ostracised for decades due to the Apartheid regime, the South African pavilion had its debut in the Arsenale in 1993. It’s not the Giardini, but it’s a decent space.

I know I said there isn’t any favouritism that plays into the allocation of exhibition spaces, and that is mostly true. Still, we can’t really ignore the fact that the countries represented in the Giardini are the ones who were able to afford to build a pavilion between 1907 and 1995  – a period of time that saw both World Wars and the Cold War come and go, along with loads of other global events.

This means that an overview of the Giardini versus the Arsenale gives you quite a good idea of who the developed market players in the world are, compared to those who have traditionally existed on the fringes. In the Giardini, you’ll find Great Britain, North America, Germany, France, Switzerland and Japan. In the Arsenale, you’ll find China, Indonesia, Mexico, Singapore and the UAE.

Emerging vs. developed markets, anyone?

Russia/Bolivia

While each exhibition space at the Biennale is representative of a country, having an artist from that country exhibiting there is more of a convention than a rule. Historically, some countries have invited artists from other nations to exhibit in their spaces for various reasons.

A good example would be the tiny island nation of Tuvalu, an island country in Polynesia that very few people ever expected to see represented at the Biennale due to the costs involved in exhibiting. Tuvalu is forecast to be one of the first countries in the world to disappear due to rising sea levels brought on by global warming. Desperate to bring attention to their plight on the global stage, Tuvalu came to the Biennale in 2013 and 2015. In both instances, they selected globally-renowned Taiwanese eco artist Vincent J.F. Huang to represent them and their message.

I was morbidly curious to see what would be going on in the Russian pavilion this year. I was very surprised to encounter a kind of pop-up pavilion for Bolivia inside the Russian building. This is not the same as Vincent Huang representing Tuvalu; the Bolivians are representing themselves, not Russia.

The official story is that Russia is “lending” their space to the Bolivians this year. Russia itself hasn’t been represented at the Biennale since the country first invaded Ukraine in 2022. Their 2022 exhibition was cancelled on February 27 of that year, just days after the first invasive action. Artists Alexandra Sukhareva and Kirill Savchenkov, as well as curator Raimundas Malašauskas, announced their resignation on social media. “There is nothing left to say, there is no place for art when civilians are dying under the fire of missiles,” wrote Savchenkov. “As a Russian-born, I won’t be presenting my work in Venice.”

It may seem like a random alliance – Russia and Bolivia – but the decision coincides with cultural cooperation, lithium extraction and atomic research agreements between the two countries. In 2023, Bolivia signed a lithium agreement with Rosatom, Russia’s state nuclear agency, on tapping the country’s reserves of the metal. Bolivian president Luis Arce openly congratulated Vladimir Putin for his victory with over 87% of the vote in the 15-17 March presidential elections.

Art. Politics. It’s all connected.

Israel

Not far from the Russian/Bolivian pavilion, the Israeli pavilion stands in darkness. Israeli artist Ruth Patir, who was chosen to represent Israel at the 2024 Venice Biennale, announced she will not open her exhibition for the national pavilion until “a ceasefire and hostage release agreement” is reached between Israel and Hamas. Patir, along with the pavilion’s curators, Tamar Margalit and Mira Lapidot, did not inform the Israeli government ahead of time about their decision to postpone the opening. The pavilion, titled “(M)otherland,” was set to include several new works featuring computer-generated imagery; one piece remained partially visible through the front window during my visit. 

In mid-October last year, a few weeks into the Gaza conflict, Israel confirmed its intention to move forward with the pavilion, despite calls from the art world for the country to withdraw. In February, thousands of artists signed an open letter urging the Biennale to cancel Israel’s participation, accusing the event of “platforming a genocidal apartheid state.” Several artists in the main exhibition joined this call. Italian Culture Minister Gennaro Sangiuliano responded by confirming that Israel would participate as planned, emphasising that any country officially recognised by Italy is entitled to present a national pavilion. Come for the art, stay for the pizza.

Curator Francesco Bonami’s proposal to include a Palestinian pavilion at this year’s Biennale was immediately met with claims of antisemitism, and the country ultimately did not mount a presentation. To date, Palestine has never been represented at the Biennale.

Ukraine

Ukraine was well-represented at this Biennale this year, which is a feat made all the more impressive when you take into account that they also managed to get an exhibition to the Biennale in 2022. La Biennale, the cultural organisation behind the entire event, committed to supporting Ukraine’s national pavilion in 2022, which had to pause preparations following Russia’s invasion. In addition, a temporary “pavilion” called Piazza Ucraina was set up by the Biennale near Russia’s closed pavilion. This last-minute tribute to the embattled country featured a wooden structure that appeared charred, symbolising the devastation Ukraine has faced.

This year’s Ukrainian pavilion in the Arsenale has not left my mind since I saw it. Titled Net Making, the exhibition features the works of various Ukrainian artists, installed in a space that has been swathed in camouflage netting. As per the curator’s statement, “People in Ukraine and abroad, often strangers, gather to weave together camouflage nets. It’s a practice driven by tragedy, but it can also function as therapy or social occasion. It is the epitome of self- organisation, horizontality and joint action, and a means of emancipation”. 

All of the works in the space are excellent, but the one that made me feel slightly sick (in a good way) was Civilians. Invasion by Andrii Rachynskyi and Daniil Revkovskyi (yes, there’s a full stop in the middle of the title). This video work features archival videos collected from open sources, shot by civilians before and during the Russian invasion.

In home-video style footage, two small children respond with excitement when their mother returns from the store with a pair of ice-creams for them; she could not finish the shopping, she explains, because there was bombing, so she grabbed the ice-creams and ran. A distressed woman paces in the street, describing to her neighbour that she was walking her dog, who then ran off at the sound of an explosion. A couple searches for their belongings in the bombed-out remnants of their apartment. These glances into the “new normal” are visceral yet magnetic, and I’ll admit that I stood there and continued to watch far past the point of my own comfort.

On the wall across from the screen showing these videos, there’s a first-person shooter video game playing on loop. The space asks you to consider how easy it is to kill people on PlayStation vs. the tragedy in real life.

Biennale 2026

As I dream of returning to Venice in 2026, I can’t help but wonder what the next Biennale might look like. The political, social, and environmental challenges of recent years have set the stage for more urgent conversations in the art world, and 2026 could see a Biennale that continues to push boundaries in these areas. We might expect even deeper explorations of displacement, identity, and global interconnectedness – especially as climate change, geopolitical tensions, and technological advancements continue to shape our world. 

Will we see more collaboration between countries, new voices from previously underrepresented regions, or an even bolder critique of power dynamics? Will we see the introduction of an AI pavilion? Only time will tell, but one thing is certain: the Venice Biennale will once again offer a window into the heart of the world, and that is a window worth keeping an eye on.

The gelato certainly isn’t bad, either.

About the author: Dominique Olivier

Dominique Olivier is the founder of human.writer, where she uses her love of storytelling and ideation to help brands solve problems.

She is a weekly columnist in Ghost Mail and collaborates with The Finance Ghost on Ghost Mail Weekender, a Sunday publication designed to help you be more interesting.

Dominique can be reached on LinkedIn here.

Ghost Bites (EOH | Metair | Northam Platinum)

Get the latest recap of JSE news in the Ghost Wrap podcast, brought to you by Mazars:


When will EOH turn a profit? (JSE: EOH)

Even after the rights issue, the group is loss-making

Back in February 2023, EOH closed a rights issue that gave them R555 million to reduce debt. This helped them negotiate a lower rate for all remaining debt, so investors would be forgiven for thinking that the business should be able to make a profit. Alas, despite the decrease in debt, EOH still made a loss in the six months to January 2024 – and not a small one either. The interim headline loss per share was 11 cents.

Those who take the KFC approach to their portfolios of Adding Hope might have believed that the worst was behind EOH, with an ability to at least be profitable in the second half of the financial year. With guidance for the full-year headline loss per share of between 10 cents and 30 cents, it looks likely that the second half was hardly any better than the first half.

And yet here we are, with the share price of R1.82 well above the rights offer price of R1.30. The share price is up 27% this year thanks to the GNU exuberance.

Is it justified? Personally, I prefer not to hold loss-making IT groups with low margins operating in highly competitive markets. Others seem to feel differently, although a 5.7% drop on the day after releasing the full-year guidance suggests that some of the bulls seem to be leaving the room.


Metair swoops in on Autozone and buys itself a route to market (JSE: MTA)

After private equity killed Autozone with debt, Metair is buying it out of business rescue

Perhaps showing my age here, but leveraged buyouts always remind me of the 50 Cent album: Get Rich or Die Tryin’. Basically, a private equity house backs a management team and plugs in loads of debt to help with a buyout from existing shareholders. In doing so, they risk the entire business and the livelihoods of everyone involved, all while putting in a thin equity layer and transforming a legacy business into little more than a venture capital play.

When it works, they make a fortune. When it doesn’t, a business is destroyed. Lovely, isn’t it?

Autozone has been the latter story, with a buyout in 2014 that put loads of debt on the balance sheet at the wrong time for South Africa. The private equity fund in question is Ethos, but all the private equity houses do these types of deals.

How much debt? Well, to give you some idea of the interest burden in the year ended June 2024, Autozone managed EBITDA of R62 million and a net loss of R61 million. They have a balance sheet problem, not a business problem. They managed this level of EBITDA despite being throttled by the balance sheet and unable to invest properly in working capital.

In these situations, business rescue can work really well because there’s actually a business worth rescuing. Metair has swooped in as the hero here, but don’t mistake this for altruism. No, Metair has a plan to use Autozone as a route to market for its car parts manufacturing business and I think that’s a pretty smart strategy. A strategic buyer (like Metair) is almost always a better deal for everyone involved than a purely financial buyer (like private equity).

If you’ve been following Metair though, you’ll know that their balance sheet isn’t exactly a hall of fame candidate either. They’ve just announced the sale of the Turkish business, a disposal that is nothing short of urgent thanks to how much pressure Metair is under. Despite this, they just couldn’t resist buying Autozone for an effective investment of R290 million, with R215 million going to the creditors (Absa being the main one) and R75 million going into working capital. The equity itself is worthless at the moment.

If Autozone’s working capital deteriorates below R344 million as at the closing date, Metair has the right to walk away. This is to protect Metair from a situation where things get even worse before the deal is closed.

Brave stuff from Metair, but I really like the deal. I just wish the Metair balance sheet was in a position of strength for this.

As speculative plays go, this is an interesting chart:


Eskom might have improved, but Northam Platinum still sees value in solar (JSE: NPH)

This is the company’s first major renewable energy project

Although load shedding seems to have been banished to the history books (and long may it stay there), Northam Platinum is still prioritising renewable energy. This isn’t just because of environmental targets and the obvious benefits of renewable energy. There are cost savings to consider as well, along with power supply risks and the possibility of Eskom deteriorating again.

Despite all the pain in the PGM sector at the moment, the business case for this project is strong enough that Northam Platinum is going ahead with a Power Purchase Agreement in respect of an 80MW solar power plant to service the Zondereinde operation. Effectively, they are committing to buying power from the company that will build the plant.

Power is expected to be available from December 2025, with the independent power producer carrying the capex burden for the project.


Nibbles:

  • Director dealings:
    • Truworths (JSE: TRU) very cleverly noted that all director sales of vested awards were either to settle tax or rebalance their portfolios. They just don’t give that detail per director. This is very poor disclosure that in my opinion shouldn’t be allowed, as I want to see exactly which sales are to cover tax and which are not.
    • From what I can see, the majority of Discovery (JSE: DSY) directors sold their entire share award. Only a couple of them retained shares after selling to cover the tax. Among those who sold everything are the founders of Discovery, which is interesting after decent results. This suggests that the share price has run a bit too hard.
    • A director of ADvTECH (JSE: ADH) has sold shares worth R309k.
    • The CEO of Hammerson (JSE: HMN) reinvested her dividend in shares worth £2k.
  • Barloworld (JSE: BAW) has renewed the cautionary announcement regarding discussions that could affect the price of the company’s shares. Sadly, at this stage, we have no further details on what those discussions could be.
  • Chrometco (JSE: CMO) obtained shareholder approval to change the name of the company to Sail Mining Group.

Ghost Bites (Alphamin | Balwin | Hammerson | Jubilee Metals | Telemasters | Vukile)

Get the latest recap of JSE news in the Ghost Wrap podcast, brought to you by Mazars:


Congratulations to Forvis Mazars, who make Ghost Wrap podcasts possible, for their appointment as auditors of Rex Trueform and African and Overseas Enterprises.


Records tumble at Alphamin (JSE: APH)

Mpama South has had a major impact here

Alphamin has released results for the quarter ended September. They tell a great story, with record quarterly tin production (up 22% vs. the preceding quarter, let alone year-on-year) thanks to Mpama South making a full contribution for this quarter vs. only a portion of the preceding quarter.

EBITDA looks to be coming in at $91.5 million, which is a 69% increase on the preceding quarter. Before you wonder how this is possible with only a 22% increase in production, the key is that sales were up 71% as the group caught up on sales disruptions.

Distortions aside, it’s obviously a lovely set of numbers. The production increase came at the right time, as the average tin price achieved actually fell by 2% vs. the preceding quarter. Combined with a 1% increase in all-in sustaining costs per tonne, it could’ve been a very different set of numbers without the production and sales volume uplift.

The interim dividend of CAD$0.06 per share is double the previous level.

The Alphamin share price is up 30% in the past year and the market liked these numbers, as you’ll see in this chart:


Balwin will want to erase the memory of this period (JSE: BWN)

Perhaps things will improve going forward

The six months to August 2024 were an unhappy time for Balwin. To be fair to them, I don’t think an election period is ever good for durable asset sales – and especially property. Combined with the prevailing high interest rates, I’m not shocked that Balwin’s HEPS fell by between 54% and 59%.

The second half of the year will hopefully be given a boost by the recent reduction in interest rates. More cuts are surely to come, giving further assistance to prospective homeowners (and thus Balwin).

It says a lot that the annuity business portfolio contributed 8% to revenue in this period vs. 4.7% in the comparable period. That says less about the annuity business and more about the ugly drop in apartment sales, with a decrease from 834 to 640 apartments for the period.

Balwin hilariously blames this on a “conservative construction approach” as though they are a Ferrari-esque business that deliberately withholds supply. The reality is that demand simply wasn’t there and the group would do better to just accept that issue rather than coming up with flawed arguments to explain the performance.

All this does is detract from some of the genuine highlights, like a 5% drop in group overhead costs and 15% operating profit growth in the annuity side of the business.

I’ve been bearish on this thing since 2021 and I haven’t been wrong on it yet, with this chart putting the GNU-inspired rally in context:


Hammerson gives us a data point on the cost of UK money (JSE: HMN)

This is an issuance of 12-year bonds to the value of £400 million

Bond issuances are nothing unusual, especially in the property sector. The funding ladder has instruments with various maturities, ranging from shorter-dated notes through to bonds that mature in several years. Still, a 12-year bond is quite an unusual thing to see at a corporate. It might be a UK vs. SA thing, with corporates able to issue longer-term debt in a developed market vs. an emerging market.

Either way, Hammerson has managed an issuance of £400 million worth of bonds that mature in 12 years from now. In the same way that a fixed deposit for a longer period of time gives you a higher return at your bank, the cost of debt for a longer-term bond is higher for a corporate. Hammerson has priced the bonds at 5.875%. Remember, that’s a GBP-denominated rate.

The proceeds will be used to redeem various other bonds that mature in the next few years. The company recently announced a tender offer to facilitate this, which is an invitation to holders of those bonds to ask Hammerson to redeem them. Encouragingly, the issuance of the new bonds was 7x oversubscribed, so there’s no shortage of investor interest. Pun intended.


Jubilee Metals focused on chrome and copper as the PGM market fell away (JSE: JBL)

Even then, they couldn’t save this result

Jubilee Metals has released reports for the year ended June 2024. They reflect growth in revenue of 20.2%, yet a decline in EBITDA of 7.1%. It gets much worse by the bottom of the income statement, where HEPS has crashed by 86%. Although an increase in the weighted average shares in issue of 6.3% didn’t help there, it was the jump in finance costs that caused the major deterioration between EBITDA and HEPS.

They had a really tough time in terms of the underlying commodity exposure, with the PGM price down by 20.1% per ounce. Copper was down 6.5%, but at least they could ramp up production of that metal. Chrome was the pick of the litter and by a long way, with the price up 26.3% and production up by 20%. Their focus has been on getting the best out of the chrome business at a time when PGMs are really struggling. Copper is in the process of being ramped up in Zambia, so there should be a major jump in production there.


Telemasters reports a sharp drop in earnings (JSE: TLM)

When margins are thin, the group can’t afford a decrease in revenue

Telemasters consists of a variety of IT businesses, some of which are in the ICT space where margins really are incredibly thin. Last year, they managed operating profit of nearly R2.3 million off revenue of R64.2 million. It’s even worse this year, thanks to a 6.7% decrease in revenue driving a 42% drop in operating profit.

By the time we reach HEPS level, the drop is 16%. It’s a lot worse for the dividend, which has fallen by 88%.


Vukile unlocks capital in Spain (JSE: VKE)

The sale of Lar Espana by Vukile subsidiary Castellana is at a better price than anticipated

Vukile told us back in July that its Spanish subsidiary Castellana had received an offer for its 28.8% stake in Lar Espana. The initial price on the table was EUR 8.10 per share. After a couple of months of negotiations, the price is up to EUR 8.30. It’s worth noting that the net asset value (NAV) per share for Lar Espana is EUR 10.22, so the buyer is still getting it at a discount to NAV.

This unlocks just under EUR 200 million in cash for Castellana. Most impressively, it also means they achieved an internal rate of return of 45% per year since January 2022 (in ZAR terms) on that investment – impressive stuff!

The capital will be most helpful for the Iberian peninsula strategy, with Vukile (through Castellana) investing in Portugal as well as Spain.

There are various conditions that still need to be met before the cash will flow, including a minimum number of acceptances from other Lar Espana shareholders as well.


Nibbles:

  • Director dealings:
    • A prescribed officer of Capitec (JSE: CPI) sold shares worth nearly R7.5 million and the company secretary sold shares worth R634k.
  • Spar (JSE: SPP) could really do with an experienced hand right now and they seem to have found one in the form of Moegamat Reeza Isaacs, the ex-CFO of Woolworths. Having spent a decade on the board of Woolworths until 2023, he’s ready for a new challenge it seems. And a challenge it will be – taking the CFO role at Spar is no joke at the moment, thanks to the offshore challenges and the SAP rollout into the remaining distribution centres. Good luck to him in the new role!
  • Eastern Platinum (JSE: EPS) has commissioned the PGM processing facility at the crocodile river mine. The plant has begun processing run-of-mine ore, delivering concentrate that is being delivered to Impala Platinum under the existing offtake agreement. The chrome retreatment project is expected to wind down in the early part of 2025, so this PGM facility is the focus going forward.
  • Choppies (JSE: CHP) is set to pay a dividend of 1.862 cents per share on 28 October 2024.
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