This was my most-read article in my early days as The Finance Ghost, shared on multiple WhatsApp groups and community platforms. It helped a lot of people with the decision to emigrate (or not) and is replicated here with just a few tweaks and updates where needed. The original publication date was July 26th, 2020.
Is there a more emotive topic for the South African middle class than emigration? With just enough money to contemplate the decision but nowhere near enough for the dream lifestyle of chasing the sun, these inbetweeners face a tough decision. Load shedding doesn’t make it any easier.
The damage to our economy from Covid was severe. It made the 2009 Global Financial Crisis look tame. A significant upswing in commodities in the aftermath of the pandemic has saved the currency and quite possibly our economy as well, although Eskom and numerous other problems constantly remind us that the pain is far from over.
When a ship is battling a terrible storm, the passengers look to the captain and leadership team for hope. Our leadership team isn’t inspiring confidence in anyone right now, forcing the passengers to at least consider whether the lifeboats might be a better option.
This isn’t an SA-bashing article
It’s too easy to just say “of course you should emigrate” – the decision deserves far more analysis than that.
South Africa has problems, but we are still one of the most important emerging markets in the world. There’s still an S in BRICS. We are still in the G20. By no means are we some obscure country that has no relevance to global trends, even if we are a “junk” economy these days.
There is unquestionably opportunity here. Although the overall economy has been stagnant in recent years, many have still made their fortunes here.
I’m going to take you through a decision process that looks at:
- Mitigation of crime as the initial test
- Separation of financial and physical emigration
- How to make the physical emigration decision
- Treating the views of SA expats with some caution
The most important caveat to objective analysis: crime
I want to explain the way I think about the emigration decision and the factors I consider, but I must first touch on the most difficult issue of all: crime.
It’s not about feeling safe, because very few countries are perfectly safe. It’s about feeling like you can successfully mitigate the risks.
I moved from Joburg to Cape Town partially because of how gorgeous Cape Town is, but also because I couldn’t handle the risk of violent crime happening to my family while driving between home and work. Cape Town has crime too, obviously, but the hijacking realities are a fraction of what they are in Joburg.
I felt that hijacking is a risk I cannot mitigate and so I semi-grated, along with thousands of other Joburg families.
Housebreakings, on the other hand, can be mitigated to a great extent by living in a secure complex. The risk is never zero, but it can be managed to an acceptable level in my opinion.
If you feel like you cannot mitigate the risks, or you cannot live a full life in South Africa because of crime, then you can stop reading. You should be on visa application sites instead, giving yourself a shot at happiness elsewhere. I totally get it and respect that decision.
Separating the financial and physical decisions
South Africans are allowed to take R1m offshore every year without jumping through hoops and another R10m per year with permission from the SARB and some other paperwork nightmares from SARS.
I raise this because the vast majority of South Africans will never be at risk of hitting this threshold and not getting their money out. The exception to this would be a Zimbabwe-style liquidity crisis where the Rand literally becomes worthless in a matter of weeks, but I believe we aren’t at that point.
If I believe that we are headed for Zimbabwe status in the next few years, then there are two things I should be doing:
- Selling all my fixed assets (especially my house as soon as possible)
- Shifting all my Rands into offshore investments as first prize or JSE-listed investments with offshore exposure (e.g. S&P 500 ETFs) as second prize
This is the decision to financially emigrate rather than physically emigrate. It is often (but not always) the precursor to physical emigration.
How do I make the physical decision?
Having already discussed the concepts of crime mitigation and financial emigration, we now need to look at the biggest decision of them all: physical emigration. This is the classic “packing for Perth” approach.
A four-quadrant decision matrix is a favourite tool for strategists. It allows you to assess four scenarios based on two variables. In this case, I believe the most important variables are:
- Importance of proximity to family
- Income prospects in South Africa
The decision needs to be based on your personal circumstances.
Let’s deal with the family point first. It’s easy: you either do or do not place high importance on being close to your family and close friends. This is especially difficult when you have kids. If you’re young and single and most of your friends have left anyway, then it’s much easier than when you are taking your kids away from their grandparents, for example.
The second point is trickier. Your ability to earn an income is a factor of your skills and your relationships. If you go overseas, your relationships start from scratch, so your skill set has to be fantastic and sought after in whichever country you go to. Please don’t underestimate this issue.
Let’s look at the four scenarios:
Quadrant 1: Upskill / change job
If you want to be close to family and friends but your income prospects aren’t looking good, then you have to do a bit of soul searching and figure out how to upskill yourself in a new direction.
Should you start a business? Do you need to study further? Is it time to do something completely different? It’s not a pleasant situation to be in, but the tough survive.
In some cases, there is little choice but to emigrate. This is the most emotional emigration of all, as it is based on push factors rather than pull factors and you leave your family behind. It hurts for everyone involved.
Quadrant 2: Do not emigrate
The decision to not emigrate is clear in only one quadrant. If you want to be close to family and your income prospects are strong in South Africa, then physical emigration makes no sense (unless you cannot mitigate the crime issue).
With the right crime and financial risk mitigants in place, you can keep lighting the braai. I am in this quadrant and I really hope to stay in it forever.
Quadrant 3: Emigrate
The decision to get out is also only clear in one quadrant. With weak income prospects and your family already somewhere else, why would you logically stay here?
Quadrant 4: Enter the global job market
This quadrant is typically where professionals with global mobility find themselves. They are specialists in specific fields and can work in many different countries.
If family isn’t an issue, then these people must logically continuously seek the best possible job market for their skills.
Treat the views of expats with some caution
Ask 10 South African expats whether you should emigrate and I guarantee 8 will give you a resounding yes. Of those 8, maybe half are genuinely happy.
South African expats don’t have it easy. Whether they are willing to admit it or not, their hearts still feel something when they think about braais, biltong and Springbok world cup victories.
Many will tell you that “leaving is the best thing they ever did” and “life is so perfect here” – which, in some cases, it is. In many cases though, it isn’t.
With the greatest of respect to expats and recognition of how hard it is, many suffer from confirmation bias and few are willing to admit it. I have enormous respect for those who are capable of giving a balanced answer.
They so desperately NEED emigration to have been the right decision that they only look for positives in the country they’ve moved to and they only focus on the negatives in their place of birth. This falls away when the Springboks win of course, at which time the expat population is the first to break out the green jerseys.
Once you’ve packed up your family and sold everything to move to a foreign land, you will seek confirmation all the time that you did the right thing. This is human nature. These cognitive biases make our lives (and the markets) so interesting.
Final thought: this is a fluid process
I don’t make this assessment once every 5 years. I do it almost continuously in my mind. The facts in front of us are always changing. Our country seems great one day and terrible the next.
Whatever you do, just do everything possible to take emotion out of the decision. Consider your options objectively and calmly and you stand a much better chance of making the right decision.
And if you are reading this as an expat who made the big decision, then please do your best to deliver a balanced view to those left behind. We all know how broken South Africa is, but I have yet to come across a perfect country.
Good luck!
Great article…balanced and informative. Thank you
Thank you…an excellent analysis of a dilemma facing us ‘ over 70’s’ in particular
It would be appreciated if you could comment on pensioners with a fixed income and property.
Thank you
Hi Hans – I think that by that stage, it must be nearly impossible to move. I am nowhere near that stage myself so can’t comment with authority, but it feels like there’s a time limit on the emigration decision. Beyond a certain point, you never catch up economically, unless you move to another emerging market.
I know at least one multi dollar millionaire personally – retired. And obviously in a financial position to migrate. This family just live in “Fort Knox” in Gauteng and basically go on overseas holidays often. Why stay here? Its cheap to live here and all children all still live in ZA. Note he actually has immigrated before (AUS) – and came back for said reasons.
Could you please comment on what age or age range you think would be the tipping point?
Hi – it’s very hard to say. With the way the rand is going, I would argue that if you haven’t pulled the trigger by your mid to late-30s, you’re taking serious chances with being able to afford to retire. But I would love to hear other views on this!
I think i have said this before, on your site Mr Ghost, but I will mention this analogy again. Sometimes you think to move a plant in your garden to offer it better sunlight & more fertile soil conditions, yet the plant slowly withers & never makes a full recovery. You can’t help but wonder why the plant has not responded more favorably to the improved surroundings. It comes back to the old adage, once the roots are distributed, it’s a 50 / 50 chance at best.
A well written, concise, rational article. It should be shared with all those contemplating jumping ship.
Fantastic, non-emotional article on a very emotional topic. Hard to find these days. Thank you, it has given me perspective.
What a great article. South Africa is a great country. Sure, there are immense problems like crime, corruption and energy, but show me a country that doesn’t have problems. And, if you are fortunate to be a middle-to-upper class earner in South Africa, your lifestyle is unmatched. Living in Sydney, London or Munich sounds great, until you are renting a 60m2 apartment and because it is all you can afford (not to mention the price of daycare, fuel, restaurants, activities, etc.).
As an immigrant myself, I am constantly amazed each time I return to South Africa how great the life is there (not for all, obviously). Just a pity so few South Africans realise it!
Says I too – with a but. I’ve lived and worked in Switzerland for a year (Im ZA). Not immigration just, I lived there for a bit you know. Loved the people, loved the traveling. And yes – home was a bed, a TV, a couch or 2, a half kitchen, a shower and a loo. It was somewhere to be when not working and not “out”. And this is where the but comes in. Everything around my apartment(s) was home. There are huge parks to entertain in and do whatever as long as you consider the others around you. We often went out till early AM and got home safe by train – walking through (city) forest (really) to get there.
Lived in Utah for 3 months too.
I live in ZA because my family is here. There’s nothing like an Afrikaans family. But people saying south africa is beautiful have not traveled. I mean its not bad. But its very mediocre. Especially the cities and that goes for half the towns as well. The further north you go the worse these towns get. Just my opinion though. And this country is overly racist. Everything revolves around race et nauseum.
A very informative and balanced view. Another issue that comes to play is age. Once one has gone past a certain old age one becomes emotionally, physically and financially stuck, no matter what.
One thinks old people don’t emigrate but I follow a Facebook group of pensioners going to UK. You would be completely surprised how many are going. To be with children, returning from whence they came, for affordable healthcare, fear of NHI, for safety – are some of the many unsurprising reasons.
Hit the nail on the head! As someone who has moved to Europe for at least the next 2 years, there is plenty of value in this article.
Excellently thought out and written. My family and I emigrated to the States 6 years ago, it has been tough and only now are we getting to a point where we’re becoming comfortable. Leaving family and friends, taking the financial hit ( it’s way more expensive than SA, and building credit is a tough and time consuming process), and learning to make decent biltong were the hardest. But feeling 99% safe, earning in a strong and stable currency, having a stable to positive outlook for the country and society in which we live, and knowing that my kids have stronger opportunities (the only thing the article missed), are the big pluses. Not to mention constant electricity……and it is an adjustment; although we share a language there is a real cultural gap between saffers and the locals which took time to navigate. At the end it is personal circumstances that need to get weighed before any decision is made, in our case I feel we made the right decision
We live in a positive/ negative ordained world of positives and negatives, an inherent law of the Cosmos. War is one on the primary negatives that could at any time erupt everywhere. Nuclear war maybe now a deterrent in safeguard mode . However, as populations explode over the world.. the use of such weapons may become a reality. The nuclear nations are all up North. A nuclear war may occur… we have seen the threats by the Russian President. And thus safety is never an absolute insurance. Grief may not be now but for tomorrow’s chlidren!
Great article.
As someone who sees himself as one who will never emigrate, it is an eye opener to see what factors people take into consideration when making such decisions.
Super article but it does not address the problem of our childrens future job prospects or the standard of education
that is on offer at government schools for those that cannot afford private education.
Agreed, this was the only thing missing from this excellent article. My concern is my kids having to leave because they fall into quad 1. But the future is impossible to predict, kids will fly from the nest, even if your nest is in paradise. So we’ll cross that bridge when we get to it. All we can do now is make some sort of provision for the unknown.
Thanks for this – you’re right in that I didn’t cover this! Truthfully, I don’t believe we can realistically forecast the next 3 years, let alone the next 18. Ken, I believe you are right. They will be adults one day (I’m a dad myself of a toddler) and will need to make their own decisions. All we can do is give them the best possible start in life and I am really not convinced that a “cheap” school in London is any better than a decent local government school. I also believe that whilst I can give Toddler Ghost the very best schooling here, I probably can’t afford that overseas. No easy answers here!
This is a great article however I dont agree with your comment about the schooling .
You mentioned a cheap school in London and you may be right in that example as not all schools are good but that example is by no way the norm. You also have to ask if you will be forced to moved to an area like that are you emigrating for the right reasons?
Our kids were in both state and private schools in SA and are now in state schools in the UK and there is no comparrison. The resources are mind blowing when compared to SA private schools and the amount of money that is spent on them is so much more than what the schools/government can afford in SA.
The way the teachers interact with the kids is completely different as well. I think the children really get out what they put in. If they are willing to do the work and try hard they get a lot out, but if they are little k*k’s who should really get a attitude adjusting snot klap they are left to their own devices. In my experience this is really where the parents input and values come through.
I agree Duncan.. or the dilemma of a second passport. If we want our kids to have the choice of being global citizens we have to go to the UK and naturalise them for at least 3 years so they can get passports
Great article! – I immigrated over to the UK with my wife and two children back in 2003. My Son now lives in Auz and my daughter is a qualified attorney and lives in Brighton – they are set and the world is their oyster so to speak however, after 11 years I returned to South Africa. I have a great life in SA, a good business, opportunities are great, a lot more freedom, the sun shines 300 days a year and the people are the most friendly which one should never underestimate.
South Africa has its problems but it still Rocks!!! Now I have a greater appreciation for what we do have in SA and frankly, all you need to do is factor in the TIA (This is Africa) factor, mitigate and accept…and you are so right; immigration is tough, lonely, miserable and that network that you have here does not exist..one constantly looks for the positives and justifies your decisions – for some its great but personally, one who loves sun, freedom and all things African, this is the best place to be!!! And generally South Africans are awesome people in comparison
Reading this article again almost 2 years later…
I completely agree with the dilemma, the 2 kids are currently the only reason we haven’t left yet, being a very close family on both sides, taking them away from their grandparents is the hardest thing for me to do… The strong weighting on the other end of the spectrum is we all have dual citizenship in Portugal and I’m a software engineer… writing those words down makes it sound like a no brainer… but I still don’t know how I could leave all our family here, this is still our home…
Like Rory above, my husband (then boyfriend) moved to the UK in 2005 on what was supposed to be a 2-year working holiday. 14 years later, with one child, we moved back to South Africa.
Why? Because our life on paper may have been fantastic (big house, great jobs, lots of travel) we were merely existing, not living. Coupled with Brexit, the rising cost of living, terrorism (in 2017, on average one terror attack stopped per month for 12 months mere minutes before it happened, excluding those that actually happened) and the feeling that this wasn’t where we wanted to raise our child, we moved back to SA.
We’ve not regretted a single moment. There are challenges, sure. South Africa requires resilience and a good and enduring sense of humour. But our quality of life is better. Great education, great climate, great people! Life is more bearable here because there is actually more to life here.
I think those in SA who’ve never lived elsewhere do tend to expect some kind of utopia but there are so many problems elsewhere that don’t always make it to the news. At the end of the day you need to make an opportunity cost: is what you’re looking for and getting worth more to you than what you’re leaving behind.
When I did my national service in the SAPS they called me a Soutpeel – referring to whites of British heritage( mine is Dutch) who supposedly had one foot in England and one in SA implying that something dangled in the salty ocean waters in between. Well I am still a soutpeel except with one foot in Indonesia now and one still in SA. My blood will always be green . I have lived in 7 different countries and I can tell you Ghostie is reg. There is no perfect place. You leave behind lifetime mates and mother always said,” your school mates are your mates for life.” We have a class WhatsApp group of 44 scattered across the world, many still in SA. There are days I can literally smell the Jacarandas and the jasmine in spring .I dream about it. I have mastered the art of biltong, boboti and Mrs Balls chutney as my little reminders. But it is just not the same as sharing them with your mates at braai with ruggers to follow. With all SA’s faults ,in a heart beat if I could secure the work I need at 55 I would be there .I still wish my kids the SA school life over any other schooling system I have encountered around the world. I would give body parts for a shore break goof at Umhlanga Rocks and a hike up to giants castle or table mountain. Sure there is a good a bad where ever one sojourns. But home is home and where your treasure is there will your heart be also. As long as I have family and friends in SA my heart , at least a large part of it will always be in land of the Springbok.
Well written article. I have lived in several countries abroad, some developed like the USA and UK and some not so developed. If you decide to leave you have to have a very good reason for doing so, as when times get tough where the grass is supposedly greener, one’s reason for leaving becomes all important. Some leave for work, others leave because taxes are much lower elsewhere, some leave because of crime or for many other reasons. People of all ages leave and many central and south american countries welcome pensioners from South Africa. Once you have chosen a country, go and visit before you move. Many people have found out too late that moving back is very expensive or beyond their means. Don’t believe the propaganda in the South African media, you can afford to live elsewhere. South Africa is an expensive country to live in and gets more expensive by the day, what with security costs, very high taxes and the falling Rand. Compare like with like and eg. food and cars are cheaper in the EU and USA, than in SA.
I emigrated at 50yrs old and now (9 years later) have a prosperous peaceful life in Northern Ireland (part of the UK).
My biggest regret was not making the decision to leave sooner.
I honestly under-estimated how hard it would be to start-over .. but a lot of South Africans have the mistaken belief that the quality of life in South Africa is really good .. it’s not … and there are many places on the planet where you will be happier, safer and more prosperous!
I’m really glad it’s worked out for you!
I started traveling in 1988, and living abroad on and off since the mid 90’s, permanently left SA in 2001, In that time I have lived in two countries and identified at least 3 others I could easily make a life in (travel opportunities gave been amazing). Life has been fantastic, the grass is green where you make it green people, that’s the whole truth and nothing but the truth.
People can argue about this and that and ex-pats and patriots all day and all night long. Be truthful to yourself, are you happy? If not, do something about it, whether it means moving out of SA or staying in SA, make the grass green, don’t wait for it to grow green on it’s own in an environment that time and time again proves otherwise (this applies to SA and International), you’ll probably wait forever.
I occasionally visit SA, love my roots and will always be SAfrican. I will not support that government, end of story. What I do support is, a peaceful existence and the ability to raise my family in a stable environment and the ability to afford a decent living.
Very interesting article Ghostie. I hope this article reaches more people so that the “black” experience can be shared as well. I have been considering to get out for four or five years. I am married but no children, in my mid thirties and the UK is constantly looking for hires in my field. It would not be my first choice though, I have a soft spot for New Zealand. The US is definitely not an option. Here’s to hoping the article gets read by 50K more people.
While this is a balanced article and will work for those considering, the real reason people emigrate is for future of their kids and their own working life if they are young enough. If they are skilled they will walk into role and continue usually earning a lot more (though costs are higher) than SA. If they are not as skilled or their skill isn’t in demand they may take a backward step for a few years but they are not doing it for themselves so it is worth it when their kids get great jobs. I know several people in NZ that are sad as they miss family and so many aspects they are familiar with but very very few who regret it and their kids are full on kiwis. Even more so in Oz which has even better rewards over time.
A good honest opinion without the fluff. It was a difficult read for me, as I have little to no attachment to family that cannot emigrate with me, and I have a great employment opportunity lined up with good career progression in a top rated country. For months I’ve been experiencing a strange guilt and I don’t know why. I’ve been hoping that the new job falls through some how so that I don’t have to face this difficult decision. While crime is usually considered in the context of various forms of grievous physical harm, the type of crime I experience daily comes in multiple forms. For instance, the unbridled corruption, whos effects are wide ranging, affect my own career prospects as well as the collective food-water-energy security of the country. While reading this article, I am reminded again of my lack of patriotisms. Just as some people convince themselves of their happiness via confirmation bias, I’ve been doing this with South Africa: “good weather, cheap xyz, affordable, the grass is always greener, …” But how I feel about SA does not originate inwardly so I have no real strong feelings towards the country, and this is also how I feel about family ties I guess. Having lived abroad for brief periods of time recently due to work, despite the issues I learned about from others, the issues people face in other countries have not been dissuasive for me in the least. I accept that it’s the “same sh£t, different country” and I’m fine with putting up with the issues of other countries, as long as I know my taxes are actually benefitting indirectly again. I think it’s time to leave.
Nothing easy about any of this sadly. I hope this helped you in some way to think through it all!